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No. 8
December 2016
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Abstract
The T-X program must succeed, as it represents the foundation on
which core US Air Force missions are based. Leadership is keenly aware
that every year the T-38 Talon remains in service, sustainment costs will
surge, while the aviators who will fly the Air Forces most modern and
sophisticated, or fifth generation, aircraft will not receive an optimum
foundation of skills in pilot training. A simple aircraft replacement for
the T-38 is not the goal.
A successful T-X acquisition must balance the competing demands
of both procurement and operations and sustainment bow waves to
best serve the long-term needs of the Air Forces most precious resource:
Airmen. The fifth generation force structure will only be as good as
the individuals who operate, maintain, and support its employment for
generations to come. Consequently, both government and industry must
pursue a T-X system that essentially transforms pilot training to meet
the requirements of combat aviation in an era of the information-infused
combat cloud. At the same time, the enduring nature of the rapidpaced, high-demand training pipeline for novice aviators necessitates a
high-use, durable, and supportable trainer aircraft within the T-X system.
In the time remaining, the Air Force can continue to work to get
the T-X offering as right as possible by focusing on: meeting the highest
performance demands for building fifth generation training; acquiring
a total training enterprise, not simply an aircraft; further developing
open mission systems requirements and beneficial live, virtual, and
constructive standards; and pursuing value with a regard for savings
across the programs life cycle.
Introduction
The US Air Force finds itself at a crossroads
of competing budgetary challenges, as the
long-debated competition looms large for the
Advanced Pilot Training (APT) Family of Systems
(FoS) program, commonly referred to as T-X.
Although it sits in the number five spot of the
Air Forces top acquisition priorities, the program
is vital to producing Americas combat Airmen
effectively and affordably for generations to come.
The Air Force faces a bow wave for procurement as
well as one for operations and sustainment (O&S)
that service officials must address as they craft
an acquisition program to replace the venerable
T-38 Talon, the services long-serving, primary
supersonic jet trainer.
The APT FoS acquisition represents a
major investment in continuing US airpower
effectiveness, for American
The T-38 replacement must
Airmen are dominant today
because they fight as they train.
be carefully designed to
Over the next 15 years, the Air
Force will rapidly evolve into a
teach basic piloting skills,
more modern, fifth generation,
a cant miss baseline
and combat cloud-capable
arm. The evolution of the
requirement. At the same
associated training requirement
time, it must also provide a
will place new demands on an
already stressed pilot-production
path to a superior training
pipeline, which runs from
environment that includes
teaching basic flight skills as
part of aviation training, to
leveraging elements of live,
introducing higher end combat
piloting competencies.
virtual, and constructive
Increasingly, the T-38
(LVC) training suited for the
training experience is becoming
mismatched with the services
front-end training pipeline.
fight like we train benchmark.
Todays combat pilot is increasingly immersed in
an information environment with unprecedented
mission flexibility. Training is reaching a tipping
point where the Air Force must apply expensive and
inefficient work-arounds to compensate for T-38
obsolescence to achieve minimum proficiencies in
fourth and fifth generation aircraft. A new training
aircraft system is crucial to meet this challenge.
The T-38 replacement must be carefully
designed to teach basic piloting skills, a cant
miss baseline requirement. At the same time, it
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Conclusion
The T-X program must succeed, as it
represents the foundation on which core Air Force
missions are based. Leadership is keenly aware that
every year the T-38 remains in service, sustainment
costs will surge, while fifth generation aviators will
not receive an optimum foundation of skills in
pilot training. A simple aircraft replacement for the
T-38 is not the goal. A successful T-X acquisition
must balance the competing demands of both
procurement and operations and sustainment bow
waves to best serve the long-term needs of the Air
Forces most-precious resource: Airmen. The fifth
generation force structure will only be as good
as the individuals who operate, maintain, and
support its employment for generations to come.
Consequently, both government and industry must
pursue a T-X system that essentially transforms
pilot training to meet the requirements of combat
aviation in an era of the information-infused
combat cloud. At the same time, the enduring
nature of the rapid-paced, high-demand training
pipeline for novice aviators necessitates a high-use,
durable, and supportable trainer aircraft within the
T-X system. The Air Force clearly wants to avoid
a drawn-out timeline using a process that is either
unengaged with industry or risks a legal protest
by the losing bidder(s). An aggressively managed
and transparent acquisition process is vital. A rich
dialogue between government and industry remains
essential. To date, Air Force officials and industry
participants have indicated that a healthy dialogue
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Footnotes
1 Air Force Materiel Command, Advanced Pilot Training Schedule chart,
Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, Aug. 11, 2016,
https://www.fbo.gov/
index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=8cacbf513fb4c944764d6e9dbed4c60f
&tab=core&tabmode=list&
(accessed October 2016).
2 Ibid.
3 Air Education and Training Command, Advanced Pilot Training (APT T-X)
Concept of Operations, Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph, Texas, May 6, 2016, 6,
https://www.fbo.gov/
index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=8cacbf513fb4c944764d6e9dbed4c60f
&tab=core&tabmode=list&
(accessed October 2016).
4 IHS Janes Fixed Wing Military Aircraft Database, Northrop T-38 Talon,
http://www.janes.com
(accessed October 2016).
5 Ibid.
6 Advanced Pilot Training (APT T-X) Concept of Operations, 6.
7 Mark Thompson, Costly Flight Hours, Time , April 2, 2013,
http://nation.time.com/2013/04/02/costly-flight-hours/
(accessed October 2016).
8 Amy McCullough, Alternatives to T-38, Air Force Magazine Daily Report,
Sept. 14, 2010,
http://www.airforcemag.com/DRArchive/Pages/2010/September%202010/
September%2014%202010/AlternativestoT-38.aspx
(accessed October 2016).
9 McCullough, Questions Remain About T-X, Air Force Magazine Daily
Report, Feb. 25, 2013,
http://www.airforcemag.com/DRArchive/Pages/2013/February%202013/
February%2025%202013/QuestionsRemainaboutT-X.aspx
(accessed October 2016).
10 James comments available online at:
http://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/911083/
department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-secretary-james-and-gengoldfeinon-the.
Air Force Chief of Staff Gen David L. Goldfein also spoke at the Aug. 10, 2016, briefing.
11 Sig Christenson, Air Force is Losing Pilots, and the Headwind is Getting
Worse, San Antonio Express-News, Sept. 26, 2016,
http://guam.stripes.com/news/air-force-losing-pilots-and-headwindgettingworse#sthash.7AybkMSQ.dpbs
(accessed October 2016).
17 Authors note: This $16.3 billion figure comes from the draft RFP
assessment of the programs estimated cost cap for RDT&E and procurement
only, as of October 2016. The Air Forces updates to the RFP and documents
pertinent to the T-X acquisition can be found at:
https://www.fbo.gov/
index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=5dbdf3be4d0d8f26909bb4d62fda6458
&tab=core&tabmode=list&
18 Air Education and Training Command,Capability Development Document
for Advanced Pilot Training T-X Family of Systems, Joint Base San AntonioRandolph, Texas, October 13, 2015, 44. This $28 billion projected life cycle
O&S figure, contained in the CDDs program life cycle projections, tracks
closely with guidelines laid out in the CAPE2014 Operating and Support CostEstimating Guide (found here:http://www.cape.osd.mil/files/OS_Guide_v9_
March_2014.pdf). CAPE estimates the average fixed wing aircraft procurement
program will feature O&S costs around 63 percent of total program life cycle
cost, according to the OSC-EG, with just 30 percent of total program costs
spent on procurement and 7 percent on research and development over the
total life cycle (see page 2-2 of CAPE guide).
19 Air Education and Training Command, Advanced Pilot Training (APT) (T-X)
Information Briefing Paper, Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph, Texas, Oct. 12, 2016.
20 Advanced Pilot Training (APT T-X) Concept of Operations, 12.
21 Ibid, 6.
22 Lara Seligman, Affordability Trumps Performance in Air Force Trainer
Race, Aviation Week, Sept. 30, 2016,
http://aviationweek.com/platforms-propulsion/affordability-trumpsperformance-airforce-trainer-race
(accessed October 2016).
23 Ibid.
24 Ibid.
25 Author background interviews, multiple aerospace industry and Air Force
observers of T-X program, Arlington, Virginia, Oct. 10-15, 2016.
26 Advanced Pilot Training (APT) (T-X) Information Briefing Paper.
27 Author background interviews, Air Force weapons school instructors and
officials, Arlington, Virginia, October 2016.
28 Authors Note: This analysis attributed to data extrapolated from 20082012 flight hour costs cited in note seven; additional information provided by
Air Force weapons school instructor, interview, Oct. 10, 2016.
29 Author background interview, Air Force fighter aircraft maintenance
officers, Arlington, Virginia, Oct. 14, 2016.
12 Ibid.
31 Ibid.
15 Ibid, 5.
33 Ibid.
16 Ibid, 6.
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Footnotes
35 Ibid, 9.
36 Ibid, 12.
37 Air Force Materiel Command, System Specifications for the Advanced Pilot
Training (APT) Program Ground Based Training System, Wright-Patterson AFB,
Ohio, 11. This is Section J, Attachment 4 of the T-X draft request for proposal
posted on Sept. 30, 2016, and available at:
https://www.fbo.gov/
index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=8cacbf513fb4c944764d6e9dbed4c60f
&tab=core&tabmode=list&
(accessed October 2016).
38 Marc V. Schanz, Inverting the Simulation Paradigm, Air Force Magazine
Daily Report, Feb. 17, 2015,
http://www.airforcemag.com/DRArchive/Pages/2015/February%202015/
February%2017%202015/Inverting-the-Simulation-Paradigm.aspx
(accessed October 2016).
51 Authors note: The Air Force is posting updates and documents pertinent to
the T-X acquisition at:
https://www.fbo.gov/
index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=5dbdf3be4d0d8f26909bb4d62fda6458
&tab=core&tabmode=list& .
52 John A. Tirpak, Surfing the Bow Wave, Air Force Magazine Daily Report,
Sept. 20, 2016,
http://airforcemag.com/DRArchive/Pages/2016/September%202016/
September%2020%202016/Surfing-the-Bow-Wave-.aspx
(accessed October 2016).
53 Authors note: These observations are based on comments made in a
series of author background interviews with Air Force and aerospace industry
observers, Arlington, Virginia, Oct. 10-15, 2016.
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