El calentamiento global

El calentamiento global es un problema grande hoy en da. Muchos

cientficos estn tratando de buscar soluciones, pero el problema es
tan malo que ya tiene efectos en la tierra. La explicacin ms simple
del calentamiento global es que cada ao, la temperatura de
atmsfera sube un poco. En un ao no puede afectar la tierra en
maneras drsticas, pero despus de muchos aos, hemos visto cosas
horribles. Los glaciares se estn derritiendo, algunos animales estn
muriendo, y las selvas se estn quemando. La nica manera que la
tierra sea salvada es si nosotros ayudamos. Necesitamos comprender
el calentamiento global, las causas, los efectos, y las cosas que
podemos hacer para reducir los efectos de este problema.
Este vdeo resume los puntos importantes del calentamiento global.
Qu es el calentamiento global?
El calentamiento global es un fenmeno que ocurre cuando hay
demasiados gases de efecto invernadero en el atmsfera. El efecto
invernadero es un proceso natural que atrapar algunos de los rayos
del sol en la atmsfera para regular la temperatura de la Tierra. Este
paso cuando los rayos entrar en la atmsfera. Algunos de los estn
atrapados por los gases de efecto invernadero que estn en la
atmsfera naturalmente, y lo resto va al espacio.
Pero cuando hay demasiados gases de efecto invernadero, ms rayos
estn atrapados en la atmsfera, y por eso, la Tierra se calienta y la
temperatura sube. Este es el fenmeno del calentamiento global.
En los ltimos 50 aos, la temperatura promedio ha aumentado ms
rpido que alguno periodo en la historia. Los cientficos dicen que es
posible que la temperatura pueda subir 3 a 9 grados antes del fin de
este siglo si no hacemos algo para arreglarlo.
Cules son las causas del calentamiento global?
Sabemos que la causa del calentamiento global son los gases de
efecto invernadero. Pero por qu hay demasiados en la atmsfera?
Algunos creen que es una cosa natural que ocurre despus de
muchos aos, y otros creen que nosotros somos la causa. Ambas son

las posibilidades, pero si es un problema causado por nosotros,

necesitamos identificar los puntos exactos y arreglarlos.
Uno de los gases de efecto invernadero ms abundante en la
atmsfera es el dixido de carbono. Este gas, y los otros gases
tambin, vienen de los coches, la deforestacin, la quema de
combustibles, la ganadera, y otras cosas tambin. La quema de
carbn produce el dixido de carbn, y por eso, las fbricas que
producen energa elctrica emiten 2,500 millones de toneladas, y los
automviles emiten 1,500 millones de toneladas cada ao. Estos
nmeros estn tan altos. Necesitamos hacer algo ahora para
reducirlos.
Los Estados Unidos, que solo tiene el 4% de poblacin mundial, es la
principal causante de calentamiento global en el mundo. Produce 25%
de contaminacin por emisiones del dixido de carbn. Emite mas
dixido de carbn de la China, la India, y el Japn juntos.
Cules son los efectos del calentamiento global en la Tierra?
El calentamiento global afecta muchos aspectos del medio ambiente y
de la Tierra. Por ejemplo, puede afectar los ocanos, los glaciares, los
bosques, y el tiempo.
El efecto del calentamiento global en los ocanos y en los glaciares
Si las causas del calentamiento global no estn arregladas, los
ocanos van a sufrir. Con la sube de la temperatura del aire, la
temperatura de los ocanos va a subir tambin. El coral no puede vivir
cuando el agua es tan tibio, y por eso, muchos corales mundiales van
a morir. Este fenmeno se llama la decoloracin de los corales. En el
Caribe, ms o menos de 50% de los corales ya ha muerto, y los
cientficos dicen que si el calentamiento global contina en esta
manera, todos los corales mundiales podran morir en los prximos
100 aos.
Tambin, con la sube de la temperatura del aire, los glaciares van a
derretirse. Los cientficos dicen que todos los glaciares en el Parque
Nacional Glacier van a desaparecer antes de 2070 si continan a
derretir en el mismo velocidad que estn derritiendo ahora. Con el
derretimiento de los glaciares, el nivel de los ocanos va a subir. El

nivel del mar ya ha subido ms o menos 4 pulgadas en el siglo

pasado, y los cientficos predicen que podran subir ms o menos 13
pulgadas antes de 2100.

La fotografa de satlite que aparece a la izquierda muestra la

plataforma de hielo Larsen B el 31 de enero de 2002. El hielo se ve
blanco slido. Avanzando hacia la derecha, en fotos tomadas el 17 y el
23 de febrero, el hielo empieza a desintegrarse. Observe que en las
fotos que aparecen en el extremo derecho, tomadas el 5 y el 7 de
marzo, hay agua (azul) donde antes haba hielo y que una porcin de
la plataforma est flotando. Fotos: Administracin Nacional
Aeronutica y Espacial
El efecto del calentamiento global en los bosques
Los efectos del calentamiento global en los bosques pueden ser
peligrosos a los seres humanos porque con la sube de la temperatura
del aire, ser mas incendios forestales. Los cientficos dicen que la
temporada de incendios en 2006 fue el peor en muchos aos. Fue
ms o menos 100,000 incendios y se quemaron casi 10,000 millones
de acres. Estos nmeros son 125% ms que el promedio en 10 aos.

Este fotografa, tomado por Mohit Joshi el 22 de mayo de 2008,

muestra los efectos perjudiciales de los incendios forestales. Este
fuego en Santa Cruz se quem varias casas y forc muchos
evacuaciones.
El efecto del calentamiento global en el tiempo
Con la sube de la temperatura del aire, las tormentas van a ser ms
intensos porque las temperaturas ms clidas evaporan ms agua, y
por eso, llovera ms. Los cientficos dicen que la precipitacin
nacional durante el ao ha sube entre 5 y 10% desde la empieza de
los 1900s. Un efecto de esta lluvia son las inundaciones.
Este vdeo es sobre la inundacin en Mxico en septiembre.
Por supuesto, el efecto ms obvio del calentamiento global es que la
temperatura va a subir. Como mencionado en la seccin Qu es el
calentamiento global? los cientficos dicen que es posible que la
temperatura pueda subir 3 a 9 grados antes del fin de este siglo.
Estos efectos son reales, y necesitamos actuar ahora para cambiar la
mentalidad de la gente para que podemos arreglar la situacin

Qu podemos hacer para reducir los efectos del calentamiento

global?
Ajustar la calefaccin y el aire acondicionado. Ponerlo con dos
grados menos en el invierno y con dos grados ms en el verano.
Usar menos agua caliente
Cambiar las bombillas tradicionales a compactas fluorescentes o
a bombillas de LED
Secar la ropa al aire libre
Usar productos de papel reciclado
Tener un jardn para frutas y vegetales
Plantar rboles
Caminar o montar en bicicleta en vez de conducir un coche
Reciclar
Desconectar los aparatos elctricos cuando no se usen
Comprar un coche que use menos gasolina
Tener la presin correcta en los neumticos

Global Warming FAQ

What is Global Warming?

Global Warming is the increase of Earth's average surface temperature

due to effect of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide emissions
from burning fossil fuels or from deforestation, which trap heat that
would otherwise escape from Earth. This is a type of greenhouse
effect.

Is global warming, caused by human activity, even remotely plausible?

Earth's climate is mostly influenced by the first 6 miles or so of the

atmosphere which contains most of the matter making up the
atmosphere. This is really a very thin layer if you think about it. In the
book The End of Nature, author Bill McKibbin tells of walking three
miles to from his cabin in the Adirondack's to buy food. Afterwards, he
realized that on this short journey he had traveled a distance equal to
that of the layer of the atmosphere where almost all the action of our
climate is contained. In fact, if you were to view Earth from space, the
principle part of the atmosphere would only be about as thick as the
skin on an onion! Realizing this makes it more plausible to suppose
that human beings can change the climate. A look at the amount of
greenhouse gases we are spewing into the atmosphere (see below),
makes it even more plausible.

What are the Greenhouse Gases?

The most significant greenhouse gas is actually water vapor, not

something produced directly by humankind in significant amounts.
However, even slight increases in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide
(CO2) can cause a substantial increase in temperature.

Why is this? There are two reasons: First, although the concentrations
of these gases are not nearly as large as that of oxygen and nitrogen
(the main constituents of the atmosphere), neither oxygen or nitrogen
are greenhouse gases. This is because neither has more than two
atoms per molecule (i.e. their molecular forms are O2 and N2,
respectively), and so they lack the internal vibrational modes that
molecules with more than two atoms have. Both water and CO2, for
example, have these "internal vibrational modes", and these vibrational
modes can absorb and reradiate infrared radiation, which causes the
greenhouse effect.

Secondly, CO2 tends to remain in the atmosphere for a very long time
(time scales in the hundreds of years). Water vapor, on the other hand,
can easily condense or evaporate, depending on local conditions.
Water vapor levels therefore tend to adjust quickly to the prevailing
conditions, such that the energy flows from the Sun and re-radiation
from the Earth achieve a balance. CO2 tends to remain fairly constant
and therefore behave as a controlling factor, rather than a reacting
factor. More CO2 means that the balance occurs at higher
temperatures and water vapor levels.

How much have we increased the Atmosphere's CO2 Concentration?

Human beings have increased the CO2 concentration in the

atmosphere by about thirty percent, which is an extremely significant
increase, even on inter-glacial timescales. It is believed that human
beings are responsible for this because the increase is almost perfectly
correlated with increases in fossil fuel combustion, and also due other
evidence, such as changes in the ratios of different carbon isotopes in
atmospheric CO2 that are consistent with "anthropogenic" (human
caused) emissions. The simple fact is, that under "business as usual"
conditions, we'll soon reach carbon dioxide concentrations that haven't
been seen on Earth in the last 50 million years.

Combustion of Fossil Fuels, for electricity generation, transportation,

and heating, and also the manufacture of cement, all result in the total
worldwide emission of about 22 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere each year. About a third of this comes from electricity
generation, and another third from transportation, and a third from all
other sources.

This enormous input of CO2 is causing the atmospheric levels of CO2

to rise dramatically. The following graph shows the CO2 levels over the
past 160 thousand years (the upper curve, with units indicated on the
right hand side of the graph). The current level, and projected increase
over the next hundred years if we do not curb emissions, are also
shown (the part of the curve which goes way up high, to the right of the
current level, is the projected CO2 rise). The projected increase in CO2
is very startling and disturbing. Changes in the Earth's average surface
temperature are also shown (the lower curve, with units on the left).
Note that it parallels the CO2 level curve very well.

Is the Temperature Really Changing?

Yes! As everyone has heard from the media, recent years have
consistently been the warmest in hundreds and possibly thousands of
years. But that might be a temporary fluctuation, right? To see that it
probably isn't, the next graph shows the average temperature in the
Northern Hemisphere as determined from many sources, carefully
combined, such as tree rings, corals, human records, etc.

These graphs show a very discernable warming trend, starting in about

1900. It might seem a bit surprising that warming started as early as
1900. How is this possible? The reason is that the increase in carbon
dioxide actually began in 1800, following the deforestation of much of
Northeastern American and other forested parts of the world. The
sharp upswing in emissions during the industrial revolution further
added to this, leading to a significantly increased carbon dioxide level
even by 1900.

Thus, we see that Global Warming is not something far off in the future
- in fact it predates almost every living human being today.

How do we know if the temperature increase is caused by

anthropogenic emissions?

Computer models strongly suggest that this is the case. The following
graphs show that 1) If only natural fluctuations are included in the
models (such as the slight increase in solar output that occurred in the
first half of the 20th century), then the large warming in the 20th
century is not reproduced. 2) If only anthropogenic carbon emissions
are included, then the large warming is reproduced, but some of the
variations, such as the cooling period in the 1950s, is not reproduced
(this cooling trend was thought to be caused by sulfur dioxide
emissions from dirty power plants). 3) When both natural and
anthropogenic emissions of all types are included, then the
temperature evolution of the 20th century is well reproduced.

Is there a connection between the recent drought and climate change?

Yes. A recent study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration gives strong evidence that global warming was a major
factor. Click here for more details.

Who studies global warming, and who believes in it?

Most of the scientific community, represented especially by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC - www.ipcc.ch),
now believes that the global warming effect is real, and many
corporations, even including Ford Motor Company, also acknowledge
its likelihood.

Who are the IPCC?

In 1998, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was

established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in recognition of the
threat that global warming presents to the world.

The IPCC is open to all members of the UNEP and WMO and consists
of several thousand of the most authoritative scientists in the world on
climate change. The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific,
technical and socio-economic information relevant for the
understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change. It does not
carry out new research nor does it monitor climate related data. It
bases its assessment mainly on published and peer reviewed scientific
technical literature.

The IPCC has completed two assessment reports, developed

methodology guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories,
special reports and technical papers. Results of the first assessment
(1990--1994): confirmed scientific basis for global warming but

concluded that ``nothing to be said for certain yet''. The second

assessment (1995), concluded that `` ...the balance suggests a
discernable human influence on global climate'', and concluded that, as
predicted by climate models, global temperature will likely rise by about
1-3.5 Celsius by the year 2100. The next report, in 2000, suggested,
that the climate might warm by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit over
the next 100 years, which would bring us back to a climate not seen
since the age of the dinosaurs. The most recent report, in 2001,
concluded that "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the
warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities".

Due to these assessments, debate has now shifted away from whether
or not global warming is going to occur to, instead, how much, how
soon, and with what impacts.

Global Warming Impacts

Many of the following "harbingers" and "fingerprints" are now well

under way:

Rising Seas--- inundation of fresh water marshlands (the everglades),

low-lying cities, and islands with seawater.
Changes in rainfall patterns --- droughts and fires in some areas,
flooding in other areas. See the section above on the recent droughts,
for example!
Increased likelihood of extreme events--- such as flooding, hurricanes,
etc.
Melting of the ice caps --- loss of habitat near the poles. Polar bears
are now thought to be greatly endangered by the shortening of their
feeding season due to dwindling ice packs.
Melting glaciers - significant melting of old glaciers is already observed.

Widespread vanishing of animal populations --- following widespread

habitat loss.
Spread of disease --- migration of diseases such as malaria to new,
now warmer, regions.
Bleaching of Coral Reefs due to warming seas and acidification due to
carbonic acid formation --- One third of coral reefs now appear to have
been severely damaged by warming seas.
Loss of Plankton due to warming seas --- The enormous (900 mile
long) Aleution island ecosystems of orcas (killer whales), sea lions, sea
otters, sea urchins, kelp beds, and fish populations, appears to have
collapsed due to loss of plankton, leading to loss of sea lions, leading
orcas to eat too many sea otters, leading to urchin explosions, leading
to loss of kelp beds and their associated fish populations.
Where do we need to reduce emissions?

In reality, we will need to work on all fronts - 10% here, 5% here, etc,
and work to phase in new technologies, such as hydrogen technology,
as quickly as possible. To satisfy the Kyoto protocol, developed
countries would be required to cut back their emissions by a total of 5.2
% between 2008 and 2012 from 1990 levels. Specifically, the US would
have to reduce its presently projected 2010 annual emissions by 400
million tons of CO2 . One should keep in mind though, that even Kyoto
would only go a little ways towards solving the problem. In reality, much
more needs to be done.

The most promising sector for near term reductions is widely thought to
be coal-fired electricity. Wind power, for example, can make substantial
cuts in these emissions in the near term, as can energy efficiency, and
also the increased use of high efficiency natural gas generation.

The potential impact of efficiency should not be underestimated: A

1991 report to Congress by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences,
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, found that the U.S. could
reduce current emissions by 50 percent at zero cost to the economy as
a result of full use of cost-effective efficiency improvements.

Discussing Global Climate Change:

Here is a useful list of facts and ideas:

Given the strong scientific consensus, the onus should now be on the
producers of CO2 emissions to show that there is not a problem, if they
still even attempt to make that claim. Its time to acknowledge that we
are, at very least, conducting a very dangerous experiment with Earth's
climate.
A direct look at the data itself is very convincing and hard to argue with.
Ask a skeptical person to look at the data above. The implications are
obvious. The best source of data is probably the IPCC reports
themselves, which are available at www.ipcc.ch (see, for example, the
summaries for policy makers).
The recent, record-breaking warm years are unprecedented and
statistically significant. It is a fact that they are very statistically unlikely
to be a fluctuation (and now we can point to specific side effects from
those warm temperatures that appear to have induced recent
worldwide drought).
Lastly, but perhaps most importantly, whether or not you believe in
global warming per se, the fact remains that the carbon dioxide levels
are rising dramatically --- there is no debate about this. If we continue
to use fossil fuels in the way we presently do, then the amount of
carbon we will release will soon exceed the amount of carbon in the
living biosphere. This is bound to have very serious, very negative
effects, some of which, such as lowering the pH of the ocean such that
coral cannot grow, are already well known.

Response of Government: Develop "Carbon Sequestration"

Technology

Many government agencies around the world are very interested in

maintaining fossil fuel use, especially coal. It should be noted that US
energy use, which is enormous, is increasing, not decreasing.
Furthermore, we are not going to run out of coal in the near term (oil
may begin to run low sometime after 2010). Methods for reducing
carbon emission levels while still burning coal are now investigation by
government and industry, as we now discuss.

We believe that a major increase in renewable energy use should be

achieved to help offset global warming. While there are some US
government programs aimed in this direction, there is simply not
enough money being spent yet to achieve this goal in a timely manner.
A primary goal of many new programs is not to increase renewables,
but rather, is to find ways to capture the extra CO2 from electricity
generation plants and "sequester" it in the ground, the ocean, or by
having plants and soil organisms absorb more of it from the air.

Possible Problems with Carbon "Sequestration"

One of the Carbon sequestration approaches under investigation is the

possibility of depositing CO2 extracted from emission streams in large
pools on the Ocean bottom. It is possible that such pools will not be
stable, and may either erupt to the surface, or diffuse into the ocean
and alter the oceans pH.

Another scheme under investigation is the idea of stimulating

phytoplankton growth on the ocean surface by dusting the surface with
iron (the limiting nutrient). This will cause an increased uptake of
carbon by the plankton, part of which will find its way to the ocean

bottom. Fishing companies are considering using this to increase fish

harvests while simultaneously getting credit for carbon sequestration.
Serious ecological disruptions could occur, however, especially if this
approach is conducted on a sufficiently large scale.

Another idea is to stimulate Earth's terrestrial ecosystems to take up

more carbon dioxide. While the impacts here are more difficult to
ascertain, an important point to note is that these systems are not
thought to be able to completely absorb all the extra CO2 . At best,
they may be sufficient to help the US stabilize carbon emission rates
for a few decades, but even if this is achieved, stabilization of rates are
not likely to return the Earth to pre-industrial carbon levels. Worse,
biological feedbacks to global warming, such as forest fires, drying
soils, rotting permafrost, etc, may actually greatly accelerate carbon
emissions, i.e. we may experience massive carbon de-sequestration.

Another major approach under consideration is to pump CO2 into old

oil and gas wells. While seemingly attractive, it must be kept in mind
that for this to be truly effective, it would have to be done on a world
wide scale, include many sources of CO2 , including many sources
which are presently small and widely distributed (such as car
emissions, and not just coal plant emissions). All of this CO2 would
need to be captured, transported, injected into old wells, and then the
wells would need to be sealed and monitored. It is not clear that this
would be affordable at all, and that there would be adequate capacity
or assurance that CO2 would not leak out in massive quantities.

In the worst case scenario, carbon sequestration efforts may simply

fail, but also end up being a political tool that is used to seriously delay
a transition to renewable energy sources, and also possibly create
many new environmental problems problems while prolonging old
ones.

In the best case scenario, given the truly enormous amount of CO2 we
are presently emitting, some sequestration approaches may serve as a
useful bridge to curbing emissions while the transition to renewables is
being made.