Distribution of damages to insulated chilies crop

0
5000
10000
15000
20000

0.3
0.15
0.1
0.15
0.3

Weather Service Probability

Total lost if no protection

0.6
75000

Probability of lost if no protection

45000

Probability of lost with zero cost protection

6000

Kediri Farmer

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Weather Service Forecas

Weather Service Forecasting

0.9

Section a Decision tree ok. Explanation missing

Section b No reasoning for the graphs created. Some of
them don't make sense or are not relevant
12.5 marks out of 25

Precision Tree
damage 0

damage

60.0%
0

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damage 10

damage 15

damage 20
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-39000

Chance

damage 5

protect

30.0%

15.0%
-5000
10.0%
-10000
15.0%
-15000
30.0%
-20000

Chance
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survive

40.0%

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60.0%

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-75000

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40.0%

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Decision
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damage

no protect

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0

Chance
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Sensitivity Analysis
Total Lost
50000

55000

60000

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65000

70000

75000

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