ROADMAP

for Network Technologies and Services

Petteri Alahuhta, Marko Jurvansuu, Heikki Pentikinen

Technology Review 162/2004

ROADMAP
for Network Technologies and Services

Petteri Alahuhta
Marko Jurvansuu
Heikki Pentikinen
VTT

Technology Review 162/2004

Helsinki 2004

Tekes your contact for Finnish technology

Tekes, the National Technology Agency, is the main funding organisation
for applied and industrial R&D in Finland. Funding is granted from the state
budget.
Tekes primary objective is to promote the competitiveness of Finnish industry and the service sector by technological means. Activities aim to diversify
production structures, increase production and exports and create a foundation for employment and social well-being. Tekes finances applied and industrial R&D in Finland to the extent of about 400 million euros annually. The
Tekes network in Finland and overseas offers excellent channels for cooperation with Finnish companies, universities and research institutes.
Technology programmes part of the innovation chain
The technology programmes are an essential part of the Finnish innovation
system. These programmes have proved to be an effective form of cooperation and networking for companies and the research sector for developing innovative products and processes. Technology programmes promote development in specific sectors of technology or industry, and the results of the research work are passed on to business systematically. The programmes also
serve as excellent frameworks for international R&D cooperation. In 2004, 25
extensive technology programmes are under way.

Copyright Tekes 2004. All rights reserved.

This publication includes materials protected under copyright law, the copyright for which is held by Tekes or a third party. The materials appearing in
publications may not be used for commercial purposes. The contents of
publications are the opinion of the writers and do not represent the official
position of Tekes. Tekes bears no responsibility for any possible damages
arising from their use. The original source must be mentioned when quoting
from the materials.

ISSN 1239-758X
ISBN 952-457-176-5

Abstract
This report provides an analysis of the major roadmaps in the network and
service domain for the timeframe 2007-2012. The work was funded by the
NETS programme of the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes). The
main focus is on technology enablers to consider future broadband networks
(wireless and fixed), new services and applications, the evolution of service
technologies and user requirements for the services. The roadmaps summarized
here were published by the Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF) , the
mobile IT Forum (mITF), the Eureka cluster projects ITEA (Information
technology for European advancements) and CELTIC (Co-operation for a
European sustained Leadership in Telecommunications), the Tekes NETS
programme, the European Commission IST Programme, the Technical Research
Centre of Finland (VTT), and the Wireless World Research Initiative (WWRI).
As a result, we present an analysis of the most important visions and trends, and
an analysis of network convergence, all-IP, the ubiquitous environment, digital
multimedia communication, wireless technologies and business models. The
roadmap analysis was evaluated and commented on by more than 40 Finnish
industry and research experts in this field. Here we present one roadmap that
collates the main aspects of the evaluated roadmaps. We also present 9 critical or
causal paths that describe the development of the services and networks. These
critical paths have not previously been published.

Preface
In 2004 the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes) funded a roadmap
study for services and networks under the NETS - "Networks of the Future" programme. The work was carried out by VTT in co-operation with the NETS
thematic groups 1b) Service technology evolution in co-operation with the
thematic group 3a) New services and applications and supervised by Tekes.
Long-term roadmaps are very challenging to create. The markets, accidents, user
habits, trends, etc., guide our future in hand-in-hand with the development of
technology. The unpredictable nature of the development in this field hinders the
reliability of predictions for the short-term time scale, i.e. 2004-2007, not to
mention the long-term estimations for the timeframe of 2007-2012 - the
timeframe of this study. Thus roadmaps must be treated with caution, and should
be seen as a vision to approach rather than something that will surely happen in
detail.
The vision presented here gives the view of the major players and experts
throughout the world that have contributed to the roadmaps examined in this
work. It must be pointed out that it is not only the markets and trends but also
the vision adopted by the ICT (Information and Communication Technology)
community that will guide the development of technology enablers for our
future. Therefore, the presented vision is somewhat self-realising, since it is the
vision presented by those entities that can actually influence it. Naturally, not all
services or enablers will become the success that is envisioned in the roadmap,
but it does show the future possibilities in the road ahead. Of course, the vision
and the roadmap must be updated from time to time to see which direction the
development is heading in.
In this work we have gathered the main topics from the most essential roadmaps
available that include networks and services domains. The analysis was
evaluated by Finnish NETS programme thematic groups and by other top
Finnish experts. The final analysis is, therefore, a mixture that consists of solid
background from the existing roadmaps and fine-tuning of analysis using a large
number of comments.
We gratefully acknowledge following people who were interviewed: Risto
Alander (Elisa), Olli Martikainen (ETLA), Sami Grnberg (TeliaSonera), Bjrn
Melen (Ericsson), Lauri Haapanen (Incode), Timo Leppinen (Ficora), KariPekka Estola (Nokia), Raija Tervo-Pellikka (HUT) and Heikki Hmminen
(HUT). We would also like to thank the thematic groups service technology
evolution and new services and applications of the Tekes NETS programme for
their contribution to the roadmap process.
We gratefully acknowledge the work of Marko Palola (VTT) for his extensive
contribution to the development of the critical paths. We would also like to
thank Heikki Ailisto, Aarne Mmmel, Ville Typp, Jari Korva, Reijo Savola
and Arto Laikari from VTT for their contributions to this report.

Contents
Abstract
Preface
1

Introduction..................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Challenges for roadmaps ....................................................................... 1
1.2 Maturity of technology .......................................................................... 2
1.3 Our approach to timescale estimations.................................................. 3
1.4 Process of the current roadmap ............................................................. 4
1.5 Content of this document....................................................................... 5

Sources for Roadmaps .................................................................................... 6

2.1 WWRF................................................................................................... 6
2.2 EUREKA............................................................................................... 6
2.2.1 ITEA.......................................................................................... 7
2.2.2 CELTIC..................................................................................... 7
2.3 mITF ...................................................................................................... 8
2.4 Other sources of information................................................................. 8
2.4.1 Funding entities......................................................................... 8
2.4.2 Standardisation bodies .............................................................. 9
2.4.3 Research institutes..................................................................... 9
2.4.4 Forums and alliances............................................................... 10
2.4.5 Commercial Research ............................................................. 10
2.4.6 Companies............................................................................... 10
2.5 Chosen roadmaps................................................................................. 10

Roadmap analysis for 2007-2012 ................................................................. 12

3.1 Analysis of visions .............................................................................. 12
3.2 Analysis of trends ................................................................................ 15
3.3 Analysis of services and technology enablers ..................................... 20

Critical paths in network and service technology evolution ......................... 24

4.1 Critical paths........................................................................................ 24
4.1.1 Commerce ............................................................................... 26
4.1.2 Business Models...................................................................... 27
4.1.3 Services ................................................................................... 29
4.1.4 Context awareness................................................................... 31
4.1.5 Content .................................................................................... 33
4.1.6 Digital security and digital identity......................................... 34
4.1.7 Mobile terminals ..................................................................... 36
4.1.8 Networks ................................................................................. 38

4.1.9
5

Radio technology .................................................................... 40

Discussion..................................................................................................... 41

Acknowledgements............................................................................................. 44
References........................................................................................................... 45
Appendices
Appendix A. List of symbols
Appendix B. Summary of Company and Organisation Interviews
Appendix C. Summary of WWRF Book of Vision
Appendix D. Summary of CELTIC Purple Book
Appendix E. Summary of ITEA Roadmap
Appendix F. Summary of mITF Flying Carpet
Appendix G. Summary of Tekes NETS programme vision and roadmap
Appendix H. Summary of AMI@LIFE Roadmap
Appendix I. Summary of VTT Roadmaps
Appendix J. Summary of WWRI Roadmap
Appendix K. Services and technology enablers based on roadmaps

1 Introduction
There is always a need to predict the future. Companies, research organizations,
standardization bodies, etc., need information on how the markets and technologies are
developing in order to make the right strategic decisions.

1.1 Challenges for roadmaps

There are many aspects that need to be considered when creating roadmaps. The boundaries
for the topic must be identified to keep the work in focus, the relevant things should be
considered. The depth of examination depends on the resources provided for the work. It is
important to state the timeframe for the roadmap at the very beginning, since the roadmaps
for the short- and long-term timescale are different. Geographical location may influence the
outcome, since the technical and market development may be very different - e.g. when
comparing it globally or just in one country.
The major challenge lies on the reliability of the time estimation in the roadmap. For
example, what is the probability that a certain technology enabler or product will be available
in the markets? Other important factor is when is a technology enabler mature enough to be
placed on the roadmap? Should it be placed on the roadmap with the first prototypes or when
there is a certain penetration of such technology in the markets? The maturity of a technology
enabler can be described in a so-called S- or Hype curve, see Figure 1.
In the roadmap process, one needs to be certain that the information gathered is as reliable
and accurate as possible. For this purpose, the literature review must be thorough and other
input for the roadmap should come from a large number of experts. If only a few expert
comments are heard, there is a danger that the roadmap will mainly represent the opinions of
these individuals. Thus it is better to broaden the contribution area. Of course, when
gathering information, the editors need be critical of the information they receive.
Finally, the roadmap should be presented in a clear and understandable way, with
consideration of the audience the roadmap is made for. This is a very challenging task.
Typically, there is huge amount of information that has to be condensed to text, graphs and
bullet points. Information is lost in this process and it is challenging to find the most relevant
information that is left for the final outcome.

1.2 Maturity of technology

Surprisingly the maturity and visibility of technology are not directly linked - e.g. more
mature technology would get more visibility. As a matter of fact, the new emerging
technologies tend to have very high visibility compared with the more mature technologies.

This can be visualised with the so-called-Hype cycle, see Figure 1.

Figure 1 Technology Hype Cycle (source Gartner)
One of the major difficulties in roadmap work is the selection of position on the Hype curve.
For example, should one place the technology enabler on the roadmap if it is positioned in
"Peak of Inflated Expectations" or in "Plateau of Productivity". This naturally depends on the
purpose of the roadmap and on the audience it is made for.
Small companies (SMEs) tend to be interested in those technologies that are mature and
popular, because they have limited resources beyond everyday business. The products should
be successful and exploitable from the beginning. The financial risk may be too large to "bet"
on the technology that could or not be exploitable after some years, despite sophisticated
evaluations of user needs. For large companies - e.g. operators, system integrators and
manufacturers - the situation is different. They have better resources and their products
usually need longer research and development than with SMEs.

Typically, roadmaps predictions are more optimistic the further in to the future they are
targeted. For a long-term analysis, the undefined factor is the new emerging technologies that
cannot be predicted - i.e. some new technology or trend may come up that we cannot know at
this point. Therefore, in a long-term analysis we have to use the technologies that are now
rising or at the top of the hype curve as a basic assumption of future technologies.
It is good to bear in mind that a typical timescale for a certain technology to be really mature
and make large profits is 5-10 years after its first launch. It is also good to realise that it is
more realistic and sound to describe the functionalities rather than the exact technologies.
Particularly as, with a timeframe of roughly 10 years ahead, there will be a large number of
technologies that we cannot name or predict at this point. However, functionalities that are
technology-independent can be described.

1.3 Our approach to timescale estimations

We have chosen an approach whereby we have tried to estimate the technology development
by reviewing the most important roadmaps of services and networks. Some of the roadmaps
only give a vague estimation of the timeframe for which certain technology is important; in
general, they propose important research issues towards 2010. In some roadmaps there are
more detailed classifications between the technologies and the timescales (e.g. between 2006
- 2008), but they do not consider the maturity (i.e. the place on the hype curve) of such
techniques within this timeframe. Thus the background information from the roadmaps does
not give insight to this challenge. Since we have no other source of information that could
link maturity, technology and time, we have chosen to present our results as they are on the
roadmaps. In general, the roadmaps tend to have a very optimistic view of the development
speed; this is also shown in our analysis.
In the timeframe of our study - 2007-2012 - we chose to present technologies and enablers in
two categories, 2007 and 2012. We have placed in the 2007 category those technologies that
are mainly found in the short term but also in the mid-term categories in the roadmaps. For
the 2012 category we have chosen those technology enablers that are in the long-term
categories and some of those enablers and functionalities that are placed in visions.
We urge readers to comprehend our estimations for 2012 as possibilities, some of which
could be materialised in 2012. We do not know how the world will look in 2012, but at least
we can present some of the options that lay ahead.

1.4 Process of the current roadmap

This roadmap study is produced in close collaboration with the NETS research programme of
the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes) [20] and its thematic group 1b) Service
technology evolution in co-operation with 3a) New services and applications. The
collaboration with the thematic groups has covered commenting, consultancy, reviews and
brainstorming in workshops during the different phases of the roadmap process.
The goal of the roadmap work was to define as accurate a roadmap as possible to cover the
five-year period 2007-2012, which was set as the scope of the roadmap.
The roadmap work started with the literature study, where up to ten existing and most
relevant ICT roadmaps were examined. Those roadmaps were reviewed and are briefly
refereed in this document (in the appendices). The roadmaps produced by WWRF, mITF,
ITEA and CELTIC were found to be most relevant to this work and were therefore selected
as major sources.
To obtain early feedback on the drafted roadmap from the industrial and commercial sector,
interviews with both individuals and companies representatives were arranged. The
feedback was processed and used to adjust and correct the content of the roadmap analysis.
The roadmap process was concluded in a workshop with the representatives of the thematic
groups, a presentation to the NETS programme steering group and publication of final
version of the roadmap review.

Literature reviews

Interviews

Roadmap

Figure 2 Roadmap process

Workshops

1.5 Content of this document

After the introduction, Chapter two presents the main sources (forums, companies,
standardisation, research and funding bodies) for the reviewed roadmap documents, followed
by an evaluation of their impact on the development of the ICT field.
In Chapter three the scenarios, visions and development of the technology enablers extracted
from the roadmaps is summarized. The analysis has been done by separating topics
corresponding to the situation in 2007 and 2012. Roadmaps do not usually very clearly
specify the exact years when a certain functionality or enabler is realised, so authors use their
own judgement to classify them to a different time.
In Chapter four the evaluation of the roadmap is continued by identifying the critical paths
based on the roadmaps.
In Chapter fivethe roadmap work is concluded with a discussion of the important findings
during the evolution, and some general suggestions are proposed.
In the appendices the main roadmaps analysed in this work are summarised, and their
backgrounds and significance are discussed. This is followed by summaries of the chosen
roadmaps, taking into account the main trends, requirements and visions they include. In
appendices, we also summarise the company interviews and comments that we received.

2 Sources for Roadmaps

In this chapter some of the main sources (forums, companies, standardisation, research and
funding bodies) for roadmap documents are presented together with an evaluation of their
impact on the development of the ICT field. The most relevant sources for this work are
presented first, followed by shorter descriptions of other sources not included in this work.

2.1 WWRF
The Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF) [1] is one of the most important industrial
and academic research platforms in the world. Alcatel, Ericsson, Motorola, Nokia, and
Siemens founded the "Wireless World Research Forum" in early 2001 and it has grown to a
large society with 153 members consisting of manufacturers, operators, R&D centres,
academia and one regulator from 4 continents. It has the critical mass to have a global
influence on the development of the future wireless world.
The objective of the forum is to formulate visions on strategic future research directions in
the wireless field, involving industry and academia, and to generate, identify and promote
research areas and technical trends for mobile and wireless system technologies. The
timeframe of reflection is in the range of 10 15 years from now.
WWRF organises meetings (roughly 3 times a year), provides a publication forum, collects
actors and research topics for research projects, and develops a vision of the wireless world
in working groups (6), which produce the material for a public deliverable called Book of
Visions.
As an example of the contributions to European research programs, the Wireless-WorldInitiative (WWI) (launched from WWRF) submitted very large-scale Integrated Project
proposals (IP) to the IST 6th call in 2003 supporting the WWRF vision. The main IP projects
under the WWI that were funded by the commission at the beginning of 2004 were Ambient
Networks [2], E2R [3] and Winner [4].

2.2 EUREKA
EUREKA [7] is a pan-European network for market-oriented, industrial R&D supporting the
competitiveness of European companies through international collaboration in creating links
and networks of innovation. There are a number of EUREKA clusters - e.g. ITEA, CELTIC,
PIDEA and MEDEA+ - each providing a platform for European co-operation between
companies and research institutions. Roughly, 170 new projects are started under EUREKA
every year.

2.2.1

ITEA

The ITEA (Information Technology for European Advancement) programme [18](! 2023)
was initiated in February 1998 as an eight-year EUREKA programme. ITEA was set up to
stimulate and support projects that will give European industry a leading edge in softwareintensive systems. ITEA works closely with other EUREKA projects and the Framework
Programmes of the European Commission. The projects are financially supported by all 33
countries in the EUREKA framework.
An industrial lead vision of ITEA can be stated as "Europe to become a leader in softwareintensive systems on embedded and distributed platforms". This is combined with
"Middleware infrastructure of dynamically configurable distributed IT". The stakeholders are
individuals who have local access to multimedia data processed by software and embedded
in hardware. The resources that are accessed are distributed over a dynamic infrastructure.
An underlying principle is the assumption that software is a factor of convergence for all
kinds of industries.
ITEA published its first Technology Roadmap of Software-Intensive Systems in March 2001.
The second edition has been produced during the spring of 2004.
The timeframe of the second edition of the ITEA Technology Roadmap is divided into three
clusters: short-term is associated with the period 2004-06, medium-term with 2007-09 and
long-term with 2010 and onwards.

2.2.2

CELTIC

Co-operation for a European sustained Leadership in Telecommunications, CELTIC [6], is a

new major R&D programme under EUREKA, similar to ITEA and MEDEA+. CELTIC was
officially approved as a EUREKA cluster project on 23 October 2003. It is the first European
R&D programme fully dedicated to end-to-end telecommunications systems. Celtic was
founded by Alcatel, British Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, France Telecom, Italtel,
Nokia, Siemens, Telecom Italia, Telefonica and Thomson.
The CELTIC programme will encompass pre-development and experimentation of
broadband and multimedia services, applications and equipment, including their control,
operation, administration and management.
A main feature of CELTIC lies in the fact that it will be a full system and services-centred
network approach. CELTIC aims at developing, integrating and testing full systems and
services for broadband in a full-scale network environment.

CELTIC has published a roadmap called Purple Book, which defines the "priorities and
outlines a roadmap for the evolution of communication technologies for Europe." Purple
Book is compiled from contributions from a large number of technical experts, from both the
industry and academia.
The timeframe of the CELTIC projects is in the short to medium-term R&D aspects, filling
the gap between telecommunication companies six to twelve months and IST medium long-term projects.

2.3 mITF
The objectives of the 4th Generation (4G) Mobile Communications Committee (Japan) are to
clarify the system configuration and applications of the 4th generation mobile
communication systems and to propose concrete near-term activities envisioning its
commercial introduction around 2010, so as to lay the ground work for the R&D and
standardisation activities by the industry and academia.
The Mobile IT Forum (mITF) [19] was established in June 2001, consisting of over 130
Japanese partners such as companies (NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, Fujitsu, Hitachi,...) and
universities. The Mobile IT Forum was established with a goal of facilitating the R&D and
standardization activities from a comprehensive perspective, so as to contribute to
transforming Japan into a leading Mobile IT nation.
In the course of this work mITF published a second revision of its vision report "Flying
Carpet" in April 2004.

2.4 Other sources of information

There are naturally many other important forums, companies, standardisation, research and
funding bodies who create their own roadmaps and other documents (whitepapers,
recommendations, statistical information, and forecasts) that could be useful for
roadmapping.

2.4.1

Funding entities

IST, European Union

The main source for roadmap projects in Europe is IST, which initiated some 25 strategic
R&D roadmap projects in 2002 as preparation for the IST 6th Framework programme aiming
at "New Methods of Work and Electronic Commerce" [8]. Some examples of relevant

projects for ICT roadmapping were MBnet (A Network of Excellence in mBusiness

Applications and Services) [9], IDEAS (Interoperability Developments for Enterprise
Application and Software Roadmaps) [10] and ROADCON (Strategic Roadmap towards
Knowledge-Driven Construction) [11]. One important IST project was the Wireless World
Research Initiative (WWRI) [16] focusing on the emergent new wireless technologies and
systems beyond 3G. They suggested three different scenarios regarding the wireless world
telecoms market within the 5 to 10 years timeframe.
IST also provides ISTAG [15] reports. ISTAG has been set up to advise the Commission on
the overall strategy to be followed in carrying out the IST thematic priority and related
activities of research, as well as the orientations in respect of the European Research Area.
Tekes, Finland
The Finnish Public Authority Tekes constructs and publishes vision and roadmap
publications for the guidance of the funding programmes. One of the most relevant
programmes for the network and service domain is the NETS Networks of the Future
programme. This funds projects that focus on future wireless systems, broadband packet
network technologies and new application/services concepts relating to these networks. The
NETS programme has published a vision paper [14] for the guidance of the programme.
There are also several thematic groups under the programme that have participated in vision
and roadmap work for the NETS programme: Wireless systems (1a Network co-operation,
1b Service technology evolution, 1c Radio-channel and air-interface technologies),
Broadband packet networks, Services and Applications (3a New applications and concepts,
3b Regulation and information society development, 3c Agent technology) and
Internationalisation.

2.4.2

Standardisation bodies

Standardisation bodies are important sources for roadmapping since the standards that are
being prepared and developed today are the most potential enablers for future services. Some
of the relevant standardisation bodies and forums that have a large impact on standardisation
include Institute of Electrical and electronic engineers (IEEE) [21],
International
Telecommunication Union (ITU) [23], European Telecommunications Standards Institute
(ETSI) [24], 3rd Generation partnership Project (3GPP) [25] and 3rd Generation partnership
Project 2(3GPP2) [26].

2.4.3

Research institutes

In addition to short-term research, research organisations like Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft [27],

Telematica Instituut [28], National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) [29], VTT

[30] and The Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) [31] are usually
heavily involved with long-term research topics.

2.4.4

Forums and alliances

Companies, research establishments and public entities are networked in forums and
alliances in order to improve the visibility of a certain technology or create interoperability
among different solutions. They provide e.g. white papers and specifications for common
practices. Examples of such forums are the UMTS Forum [33], World Wide Web
Consortium (W3C) [35], Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) [22], Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) [36],
IPv6 Forum [32], OFDM forum [34].

2.4.5

Commercial Research

There are several commercial research sources that provide consultancy and forecast the
telecommunication industry. The price of their reports and forecasts typically varies from
500$ to 10,000$, corresponding the depth of the analysis.
Gartner, Inc. is perhaps the most well known research and advisory firm that helps more than
10,000 clients leverage technology to achieve business success. Gartner's businesses consist
of Research, Consulting, Measurement, Events and Executive Programmes. Gartner includes
approximately 1,000 research analysts and consultants in more than 75 locations worldwide
[13].
The Insight Research Corporation [12], USA, provides commercial market research and
strategic analysis for the telecom industry. Topics include, e.g., Operations Support System
(OSS) 2004-2009 and Streaming Media in Telecom Networks 2003-2008, Pervasive
Technologies and Telecom Carriers 2004-2009.

2.4.6

Companies

Large companies like Apple, Dell, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Nokia Palm, Sun Microsystems,
etc., not only create roadmaps and white paper documents to guide their strategy but also
publish some of them in order to influence the markets - i.e. shape the future.

2.5 Chosen roadmaps

The following table summarises the publisher, publication time, roadmap timeframe and
main technical topics of the main ICT roadmaps considered by this work.

10

Table 1 Main ICT roadmaps evaluated in this document1

Roadmap

Book of Vision

Technology
Roadmap for
SoftwareIntensive
Systems

Purple Book

Flying Carpet

The vision and

roadmap document of
the NETS programme
and it's thematic
groups

WWRI

Publisher

WWRF

ITEA

CELTIC

mITF

Tekes

IST

Published,
latest
revision

2001, (2004)2

2001, 20043

2003, 2004

2003, 2004

2001, 2003

2002

Origin

Global

Europe

Europe

Japan

Finland

Europe

Length
(pages)

279 +
papers

109

148

26

84

Timeframe

-2010-

- 2010

2002 - 2010

2005-2010

2002-2010

Focus

Technical
Softwarerecommendations intensive
for the wireless systems
world

End-to-End
Telecommunication
systems, networks

Mobile

Wireless
systems,
Business,
broadband
packet market, services
networks, services and
applications

Approach

Suggestions
for
future
research
and concepts in
the wireless world

Timeframe
estimations
for
technologies

No, only towards Some, divided No, only

2010 and beyond
into short term 2010
(2004-2006),
mid
term
(2007-2009),
long term (2010
beyond)

Trends

Yes

working 148

2004 - 2010

Overview
of Overview
of Suggestions
and Guidance
research
research challenges concepts for 4G programme
challenges and and trends
mobile systems
trends

Yes

Yes

for Three scenarios

for future ICT

towards Yes,
(2002-2003, Yes, shortly for 2005 (2002-2003),
2005-2006,
2010 and 2010
(2005-2007),
beyond)
(2009-2010)

Yes

Yes

Yes

AMI@Life, NETS thematic group 3a roadmaps and VTT technology roadmaps were used as input
for this work but not included in this table due to shortage of space
2

Not published at the time of writing, to be published in the summer of 2004

Version 2 not published at the time fo writing (published in the summer 2004); a draft version of
version 2 was used in addition to version 1 in this work

11

3 Roadmap analysis for 2007-2012

The scenarios, visions and development of technology enablers extracted from the roadmaps
are summarized in this section. The following analysis is revised by comments gathered in
interviews, workshops and other individual contributions from various experts that were
obtained during the roadmap process.

3.1 Analysis of visions

Towards Ambient Intelligence
The common view of the major ICT roadmaps is that our living environment will in future be
more and more augmented by various digital services and functionalities. Future
communication capabilities will meet and perhaps even exceed user expectations in terms of
simplicity and functionality. The living environment itself may stay much the same as it is
today. However, there will be technology embedded in it for providing various services for
the user. Enablers like smart devices and sensors, as well as different network capabilities,
will be available in people's everyday living environment - in the home, the workplace, the
car, clothing, etc. In general, the use of services and underlying network structures will be
fully transparent to the user.
As consumption of services today is largely happening in a fixed environment, such as the
home or workplace, roadmaps see that the importance of service mobility is increasing. This
implies that technologies and business models supporting mobility of services are becoming
more important. There is a strong indication in both roadmaps and interviews that services
should be available to users anywhere and anytime. The user should also be able to use the
terminal he prefers - e.g. PC, mobile terminal, Digital TV....
As use of services is moving from fixed environments - fixed terminals towards anywhere,
anytime, any device, and any environment a model of new requirements for service
provision will arise. According to the roadmaps, adaptation of services is an important topic.
Adaptation will be done using many parameters - like user context (location, activity,
behaviour, etc), profiles (likes, dislikes, hobbies, etc) used terminal (PC, mobile terminal,
digital TV, etc.), available network capabilities (broadband, mobile network, vehicular
network, etc). Adaptation will be proactive, taking various inputs into account automatically
and even learn about the user's behaviour. The roadmaps, as well as the people interviewed,
emphasize the importance of privacy issues and users control over proactive adaptation
mechanisms.

12

There are two different views existing in the roadmaps concerning the terminals people will
be using in the future. The first is that everyone will have one multi-purpose terminal, which
can be used for communication, authentication, as keys, etc. Another view is that the user
will communicate with and control services using all kinds of devices in his surroundings.
The communication will be based on self-explanatory, easy-to-use multi-modal natural
human interfaces like voice and gestures, which are suitable for all sorts of people, such as
the elderly and the disabled, and will also respect differences in our cultures. We will be
helped by augmented reality, which will provide our daily lives and physical views with
useful information, as well as exciting experiences.
Mobile systems will be an inseparable part of our daily lives in various branches of living
(e.g. work, education, entertainment, health care, commerce...). The nature of mobile systems
will make new lifestyles viable. For example, systems monitoring vital functions using bodywearable sensors with pervasive communication capabilities will provide an added sense of
security for elderly people and possibly encourage them to take longer walking trips outside
the home.
In addition to the business drivers there are other factors driving progress further. People are
looking for a life that is more enriched and cultural, more flexible and diversified, more
comfortable and safe, and more personal and convenient. Advancements in communication
and information technology will be a major factor in realising these needs.
A convergence of ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and intelligent user
interfaces will bring us towards the Ambient Intelligence era.
Networks
Networks - cellular, broadband, short-range, sensor, vehicular, satellite networks, etc. - are
converging and interoperable over All-IP.
Networks provide always-on, Always Best-Connected (ABC) access with guaranteed end-toend seamless services with QoS (Quality of Service), security and mobility. Networks are
also utilising general authentication, charging, personalisation methods supported by end-toend security and QoS, while virus- and digital rights management (DRM) protection are
embedded in the telecommunication infrastructure.
There will be networks-in-networks, which will form nested spheres inside one another
starting from Body Area Network (BAN), Personal Area Network (PAN), Vehicular Area
Network (VAN), Virtual Home Environment (VHE), etc. Whenever people move, at home,
in their car or in public places, the associated personal networks will move with them. These
personal networks will provide access to the desired information and all services they are
subscribed to. The mobile terminal will be used to control other devices; it will enables
Internet connectivity and be a part of the personal area network. Ad hoc networks will be

13

used in a temporary situation - e.g. in a conference or in concerts - to build up an autoconfigurative network and as an extension to access network coverage.
New radio interfaces will provide higher bandwidth efficiency. The target for beyond-3Gsystem bandwidth should be 100Mbps/1Gbps for the mobile and stationary user,
respectively. The cost of the access network will be relatively low (equivalent of 30 /month)
and still provide a high bandwidth access in the order of 10 -100 Mbps.
Machine to machine (M2M) communication and applications is an issue that has many
controversial views. The issue is not highly ranked in the major roadmaps and not all of the
interviewed people were convinced of the importance of M2M. M2M applications today
have been realized largely based on the Short Message Service (SMS), but the trend is
towards M2M using IP-protocol. Other strong opinions in favor of M2M stated that M2M in
All-IP environment would create large share of the network traffic in the future. This is based
on general assumption that the devices in ubiquitous environment would be connected to AllIP networks and would use IP as a base protocol for communication.
Services and frameworks
Personalized and context-aware services are available for the user anywhere, anytime using
the most appropriate means.
Applications will adapt to the users context by using profiles and network services
(presence, positioning, billing, local services, QoS) to allow rich communication. The
services will have self-learning capabilities.
Services are easy find and use. They can be used anonymously, but, whenever necessary, the
users can be reliably identified. Common charging and identification methods exist. Personal
authentication technology allows a user to securely purchase items, do mobile ordering or use
administrative services through networks. Network security will emerge to prevent illegal
activities and violation of privacy in different domains, including home, work, vehicles, etc.
New services will be based on open standards and interfaces that are interoperable in an allIP network. A flexible service platform will provide services management and charging and
inter-work with other domains. It will also be open to third-party service providers to import
their own services. It will also be possible to offer and charge services with different level of
quality of service (QoS).
In homes there will be an increased number of automated and intelligent devices that will
help our daily lives. Communication - e.g. video calls with family members outside the
home, reading emails, etc. - will be embedded in the home infrastructure. The devices and
machines at home will have a network connection, so the home appliance software can be
updated by service providers via the Internet when authorized.

14

Multimedia communication will be an increasingly important part of various services.

Person-to-person communication services will be enriched with features such as presence
management, dynamic call management, advanced unified messaging services and multimodal service management interfaces. Communication will also be enriched with "reality
feelings" in addition to video and voice - e.g. virtual meetings.

3.2 Analysis of trends

Business trends
Markets are changing - New structures and opportunities will emerge
Increased productivity is one of the main drivers for deploying new technology in general.
This is also applicable to investments in information and communication technology. There
are strong statements, both in the roadmaps and the interviews, that utilizing IP applications
will bring great benefits in terms of productivity, quality improvements, new features and
cost savings. However, it is not only serious business drivers that will drive the development
of new ICT technologies. The importance of applications for the sharing of experiences,
forming digital communities and fun were emphasized in the roadmaps as well as in the
interviews.
In general, services and applications are the key. The underlying technology is not relevant to
the end users. They are mainly interested in services and applications. However, technology
is an important factor in changing the way the applications and services will be built. One of
the major changes will be the large-scale adoption of all-IP in services and applications. AllIP with e-and m-Commerce will change and amend business processes tremendously.
The information and communication technology markets are changing fast. Competition and
differentiation are driven by deregulation and globalization. Business models are also
changing rapidly. New business models tend to be more networked and more complicated
than earlier because of an increased number of stakeholders. These stakeholders often have
mutually conflicting interests and a different understanding of markets and their goals.
Service brokering business models are likely to appear for adding value by managing user
identity, profiling, billing and granting access to services. Service delivery and connectivity
will be separated more clearly into different businesses - Telco's provide transport and third
parties providing services are becoming widespread.
The convergence of information and the communication industry continues. Convergence is
taking place on many levels: on the industry level, network level, application level and
content level. The major enablers are interoperability over IP and digitalisation of all content.
The converging digital industry is bringing together parts of the consumer electronics,
communication, information technology, media and entertainment industries. Based on the

15

interviews, convergence in the IT and communication technologies is considered a really

important source of new possibilities in terms of new applications and businesses and new
ways of building and managing business processes more effectively. Restructuring of
companies into smaller, more independently operating units is increasing the need for
collaboration across sites and, sometimes, increasingly, across companies. This is a driver for
promoting the interoperability of technologies.
As the importance of interoperability increases, standards will play a key role. However, not
all standardisation-like activities will be carried out by standardisation bodies. The dominant
design approach - where a single company or group of companies jointly push forward their
own solution - is likely to be increasingly important. The industry is moving towards open
software platforms that enable widespread application development - Java and Open Mobile
Alliance (OMA) being the key solutions. Forums are being created to accomplish vendor
HW and SW interoperability for certain technologies, such as WiFi (Wireless Fidelity).
Regulation, legislation, social and economic conditions, and constraints are important factors
for the adoption of new technology. Depending on the commentator, it is either the
development of technical enablers or the services that are emphasized. For example, in
discussion about digital TV or mobile services in Finland there is the question that the
services will only emerge when there are enough consumers to use the services.
Specific groups of people (children, the elderly and the disabled) also have their role in the
development of new services and technology. They have different requirements and needs.
There may also be potential business as well. For example, the EU has stated that those
specific categories of end users must be taken into account in telecommunication systems. In
traditional networks this is achieved with large keypads and screens or by feedback on
telephones, emergency calls, etc., but very little is being done for the emerging IP-based call
systems. Since applications will be based on IP, the services and applications would be easy
to deliver and would gain large markets. This is something that may have great potential in
terms of business as well.
We will have the advent of home connectivity and home networking. It is expected that
residential users, together with business, will be the main sources of revenue for operators
and manufacturers. Location-based Services (LBS) are also expected to provide new revenue
for all the actors in the value chain

Networks
Networks are developing rapidly
The Internet is becoming a mass medium and Internet Protocol (IP) the leading network
protocol. Based on the interviews, value creation will move from the network to all-IP
applications. In IP networks, Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) is an important enabler that
provides session initiation - e.g. between users or devices.

16

Communication via mobile radio networks is increasing enormously. Wireless

communication will become even more important than it is today in areas other than mobile
telephony (e.g. mobile multimedia services). Even though mobile and wireless
communication means are increasingly important, wired connections also have an important
role. For example, the performance of backbone fixed network must be developed constantly
to match increase in data traffic caused by multimedia applications and wireless
communication.
According to the roadmaps, it seems obvious that in addition to the current networks there
will be a large variety of different networks available. In addition to the current fixed
broadband (xDSL), GSM/3G and Wireless Local Access Network (WLAN) networks there
will also be networks for services used in the personal area (PAN), the body Area (BAN),
cars, homes, etc. Earlier networks were developed for a single purpose, e.g. the telephone
network (POTS). The current trend, however, is that even though the new networks have
been optimized for one particular purpose, they are increasingly interoperable because of the
network protocol used - IP. This development means that networks are moving from the
single service - single network paradigm towards multi-services networks.
The available bandwidth is increasing considerably and the price/bit is decreasing
dramatically. The bandwidth is expected to grow from the 2 Mbit/s currently offered via
xDSL or Cable modem for stationary users up to 1 Gbps in the next decade. In the 2004-2008
timeframe, 3G, Wireless LAN and Bluetooth will be important wireless technologies to build
applications on. For wireless short-distance connections, the bandwidth will grow up to 50
Mbps in the near future. For mobile users, a bandwidth of 100 Mbps is visible by 2012.
Multimedia services are perhaps the most important drivers for an increase in bandwidth.
According to the roadmaps and interviews, it is not likely that there will be an explosion of
bandwidth in radio networks. In fixed networks however, this may be possible. Satellite
access systems envisage broadband deployment in areas where wired solutions fail to be cost
effective
Todays data traffic is highly symmetrical in fixed-line networks (i.e. in core networks) due
to peer-to-peer applications, such as the "Napster" kind of shared downloading and storage
applications. This trend will also be valid in the future due to symmetrical data services like
video conferencing, peer-to-peer-services and small- / home-office services. As these
applications will be used largely in wireless networks, the traffic will also be symmetrical in
the mobile domain in addition to core networks.
The present mobile networks are not designed for session mobility or handovers between
different operators, even within the same access technology, not to mention session mobility
between different access technologies. For example, as yet there is no common method for
seamless handover between 3G and WLAN networks, even inside the same operator
network. According to the interviews, 3GPP is working on allowing the same device to
connect through 3G and WLAN by interoperable authentication and charging mechanisms,

17

but they are presently not very active in providing session mobility between two
technologies. This is probably an issue for the future UMTS release 7.
However, according to the interviews there are signs that handovers will work between
different network technologies in 2007. The vertical handover between 3G and WLAN is
already presented by Finnish operator TeliaSonera in the Tekes-funded VHO project. There
is also the question of how seamless the seamless handover needs to be. In certain
applications the users may not see, e.g., a 10-second handover time problematic. In the
interviews there was a statement that fully operable seamless roaming between network
technologies, and private and public networks could be technically realized before 2012, but
the major challenge probably lies with the business models. Without a sustainable business
model that would provide profits for most of the actors in this field, seamless roaming will
not be established. For example, would it be reasonable for a cellular operator to invest a
large amount of resources in establishing system that would allow their customers to change
their current connection from 3G to a public and possibly free WLAN connection that is not
owned by that operator?
New functionalities are emerging in the networks. They will start to support quality of
service (QoS) (one-to-one, multipoint, content distribution), security, billing, serviceawareness, etc. The network can also provide capabilities like location or presence. In some
of the comments it was pointed out that voice recognition is becoming mature technology
and will be used for controlling services in the networks.
Home networking will be increasingly important, also its connectivity to the Internet using
broadband access. Car networks are seen as likely to become more important in the future
due to the integration of communication and entertainment devices in cars. Communication
between cars and between the car and the traffic environment will increase. Traffic
information systems will emerge. These car-related trends are strongest in the countries
where the amount of traffic is high and where the people have to spend a considerable
amount of time per day in their car due to traffic jams.
Services, software, content and frameworks
Digital content and interoperability of systems and services will be a major enabler for
various services in the future
Users should be in the driving seat in the development of new services. They have certain
expectations for mobile services. According to the roadmaps and interviews, users value
relatively simple things. They want to have more freedom of time and place. They want to
have easy-to-use, fun and convenient applications and services. Communication between
people should be richer, expressing emotions and feelings, and users also expect that new
mobile communication systems will provide something more than just "faster speed".

18

The importance of software is increasing simultaneously with hardware development (more

and more computing power, memory, bandwidth, etc., at lower costs) and ubiquitous
communication. Software is at the heart of an increasing number of new products and
services.
According to the roadmaps, a real integration of communication, A/V and gaming
applications will first emerge in the area of on-line gaming. New modes of person-to-person
communication will also emerge from the same application domain. One of the main
"revolutions" in person-to-person communication will be the long-awaited addition of video
to the voice stream with the development of video telephony. There is also a trend that
services will be offered to the user as enriched. This is already visible in the case of voice
communication, where presence and positioning services can give more value to the service.
The devices are evolving from independent stand-alone devices towards integrated devices
and collections of collaborating devices. A post-PC era is emerging, where not only the PC is
connected to the Internet but also game consoles, Internet enabler TVs, smart handheld
devices, web terminals, car and home appliances and PC tablets are part of the net.
All media will be in digital format. It is already hard to find a business or content which is
solely in analogue / non-digital format. On the contrary, virtually all new content is digital.
For example, messaging is becoming more and more digital, music and movies are in digital
format, administrative services can be increasingly provided via networks, TV is becoming
digital, e-commerce is emerging, etc.
The amount of digital content will increase rapidly. It is not only companies and
organisations producing digital content but also people are using PCs, digital cameras, video
cameras and mobile phones equipped with cameras to produce vast amounts of digital
content. This is creating a demand for solutions for management and search capabilities for
that content. It is also likely that new kinds of services will be seen in this area.
According to information society scenarios, the home is increasingly becoming a place of
work. A variety of services will be provided to users via fixed broadband access in their
home. One of the most important may be Rich Call / Voice over IP (VoIP) services over
Digital Subscriber Line (xDSL). The car can also be seen as an extension of the home in
terms of an environment to consume services such as communication, entertainment (music,
movies, etc), information (e.g. news) and TV.
Security and protection of privacy is becoming more and more important. As people
consume more network-based services it is important to be able to trust the services one uses.
This implies that there will be an increasing demand for trusted third parties providing
certification services (certify person, services, content, etc). Other important issues are
reliable and user-friendly identification and authentication methods, Virus and SPAM

19

protection. In addition to reliable user identification, solutions for payments in a network are
an important subject for development.
Digital Rights Management (DRM) seems to be an issue with controversial viewpoints.
Obviously, content producers are most interested in DRM and willing to have it deployed in
the system. Strong DRM protection is already today necessity for mobile ring tone and
JAVA-application business. On the other hand, some people interviewed were not quite sure
whether users want to have DRM or what the business model for that will be. It is seen as a
"nice to have" feature for common user-created material, but for large entertainment
companies like TimeWarner the efficient and trusted way of content protection -e.g.
protecting latest box-office movie in digital format - is surely important.

3.3 Analysis of services and technology enablers

Services and functionalities 2007
Communication services are becoming increasingly mobile and visual multimedia
communication is becoming more and more important. There will be a rich variety of
network-based services like messaging services, person-to-person multimedia services, rich
communication utilizing presence, positioning and voice control, PoC services (Push-ToTalk), videoconferencing and VoIP. SIP is beginning to be a major service enabler. New
(ICT) technologies are enabling new kinds of services in the field, like infotainment, health
care, eCommerce, work and education. Services to promote collaboration and sharing of
content in both freetime and working time will be a strong trend. For example, group
communication and content sharing applications between friends and family may be a field
for new inventions.
By this time, the adaptation of services will take place using profiles that describe terminal
properties, habits, likes/dislikes. Personalization and adaptation based on simple context and,
especially, location-information will be a part of many services.
Services and functionalities 2012
Communication with ICT systems is more natural. New user interaction mechanisms (voice,
context/location adaptation, etc.) have been integrated as part of service technology.
Adaptation is fully context-aware, using information on situation, history, profiles, and
available devices. The services are self-learning to gain a better understanding of our needs.
Agent technology and different brokering service providers help users to manage the vast
amount of content located in the network. There is an increasing demand for trust and
certification services - e.g. trusted third parties are used to certify a service or content. More
precise positioning enables new kinds of applications in, e.g., warehouses or key finderapplications/services where positioning within a range of a few cm is needed.

20

Terminals in 2007
More radio accesses are implemented to mobile terminals, including digital Video broadcast
(DVB-H) and short range technologies - e.g. Near Field Communication (NFC). Terminals
are capable of identifying the user by biometric or smart card solution, they can choose the
best possible radio access, smart applications use indoor/outdoor positioning information as a
first step towards context awareness. Positioning is done by Global Navigation Satellite
system (GNSS) added to cellular positioning (A-GPS) and indoor positioning. Limited multimodality of voice and gestures is used in terminals and services.
Terminals in 2012
There may be one terminal which takes the place of all devices and is used for many
purposes - i.e. wallet, remote control, personal data storage and authentication. Terminals are
not always needed for communication - e.g. using voice-controlled user interfaces. Terminals
or devices that need to be controlled are used with a wide range of modalities (voice,
gestures, pointing, eye-control) and can give feedback to the user. Terminals can sense each
other and make assumptions on how they should react e.g. by going to silent mode in place
where other terminals are in silent mode if this is in user preferences. Sensors and terminals
are so small that they can be embedded in clothing and the environment. Terminal power
consumption (and extensive heat production) is challenging due to the large power
consumption of multimedia processing. This requires terminal platform and application
power optimisation. Power is produced in the terminals by fuel cells, and batteries can be
charged inductively without wires.
Networks in 2007
Network convergence is expanding, but end-to-end network control over security, QoS and
seamless fast roaming is not fully accomplished at the network level. Application level
handover is accomplished. Network-dependent QoS mechanisms are not fully interoperable.
Bandwidth is 2 Mbps on the move and 10-14 Mbps for a stationary user. Data traffic is
symmetrical in fixed networks but asymmetry exists in the mobile environment due to
browsing and download-type applications. Improvements on spectral efficiency rely on
emergent Multiple Input / Multiple Output (MIMO), adaptive antennae, diversity, Medium
Access Control (MAC) solutions. MIMO and smart antennae are used in base stations, but
not in terminals at this point.
Networks in 2012
Cellular, WLAN, WPAN and broadcast networks are mainly converged. Software Defined
Radio (SDR) is used to access all radio interfaces in an optimum way. It is possible that RoW
technologies are used in some cases to establish fixed-line networks connectivity - e.g. in
third world countries. Communication speed for mobile networks is 100 Mbps for a mobile

21

user and 1 Gbps for a stationary user. In the wireless domain this kind of speed may require a
very short range (i.e. below a few meters) between the transmitter and the receiver.
Multimedia services like VoIP, videoconferencing and P2P cause symmetrical traffic
(downlink-uplink) also in mobile network. Single login to heterogeneous networks provides
roaming of service, authentication, billing information and QoS guarantees with one
procedure. Ultra Wide Band (UWB) is a mature enabler to exploit fast data transmission of
short-range networking. Spectral efficiency is clearly higher than before due to MIMO, smart
antennae, ad hoc, diversity, new MAC technologies and cross-layer design. MIMO and smart
antennae are used in terminals and base stations. Cross-layer techniques over a TCP/IP stack
improve telecommunication system multimedia data delivery. PANs are used widely in
conjunction with ad hoc connectivity to other devices and networks, ad hoc and sensor
networks have multi-hop capabilities, moving network bubbles - i.e. PANs - can connect to
each other and sensor networks are embedded in our surroundings.
Content and security in 2007
MPEG-4 and its successors provide the foundation for video coding in 2007. MPEG-7 and
MPEG-21 are widely used for metadata descriptions of multimedia content. XML is a basic
mark-up language and is used in most of the applications.
Security is mainly done by Virtual Private Networks (VPN), Public Key Infrastructure (PKI),
SIM-card, bank account key numbers. Bio-identification is used in certain applications.
Content and security in 2012
Multimedia data content is a major source of traffic for telecommunication networks. In
order to save bandwidth, new multimedia coding algorithms are developed that have a very
high compression rate and are scalable to network load and the required video quality.
Security is embedded in all devices and the telecom infrastructure, which automatically does
SPAM and DRM filtering. End-to-end security is accomplished. Third-party certifications
are used. Authentication is done with one scheme that works for all networks and services; it
could be based on biometric or/and smart card approaches. User privacy is assured by thirdparty service providers that hold this information securely.

22

Table 2 Technology Roadmap summary

2007

Services

Terminals

Networks

Content

Security

2012

Towards more natural use or network services

New services available 2007

Communication and user interaction with ICT

Communication getting mobile
systems getting more natural (new means of
Multimedia communication
interaction)
Personalisation and adaptation using simple
More accurate positioning available
context (location)

Services and adaptation are context aware

Mobile services for various fields of life

Agent technology to help user with vast

Collaboration and sharing an important trend
amount of content and services

Brokering-type business models

From a network-centered world towards terminal-centred world
More radio accesses implemented for mobile
Multi-purpose terminals (communication,
terminals (2G, 3G, HSDPA, WLAN, BT,
remote control, data storage, authentication)
NFC,DVB-H,...)

Radio access based on SDR

User identification (biometric / smart card)

MIMO and start antennae integrated with

Terminal can choose best radio access
terminals
Limited multimodality

Power is a critical issue (due to, e.g.,

More sensors in terminals
multimedia processing requirements)

Fuel cells in use as power sources

Size of terminals and sensors very small => can

be embedded anywhere

Communication without a terminal (voice

interfaces)
Increased bandwidth in converging networks
IP is the dominant network protocol

All-IP converged networks with IPv6 base

Network convergence expanding
protocol
Application-level handover accomplished

SDR used to access all radio interfaces in

2 Mbps on move, 10-14 Mbps stationary
optimum way
Data traffic mainly symmetric

100 Mbps on move, 1Gbps stationary

Positioning using global navigation satellite
Single log-on in heterogeneous networks
system (GNSS) with cellular positioning and
UWB mature enabler
indoor positioning

PAN networks used widely

MIMO and smart antennae integrated with
Sensor networks embedded in our surroundings
base stations
Digital multimedia data to be main source of traffic in networks
MPEG-4 and its successors as a foundation
Multimedia content is a major traffic source in
for video coding
telecommunication networks
MPEG-7 and XML used widely for metadata
New multimedia coding algorithms are
Digital Rights management importance
developed
increasing

DRM and content protection integrated in

services

All multimedia content is described with

metadata
Towards trusted services and end-to-end security
Security mainly using VPN, PKI, SIM-card,
End-to-end security accomplished
bank account key numbers

Security embedded in all devices and telecom

Bio-identification used in certain applications
infrastructure
Trusted third-party certification services
Automatic spam and DRM filtering in network
emerging

Third-party services e.g. for charging,

certification, personal information used
1. Authentication done with same scheme for all
networks and services

23

4 Critical paths in the network and service

technology evolution
In traditional roadmap schemes the technology enablers are placed in certain time regions,
e.g. in short, mid and long-term categories. There is usually no evaluation of the
requirements for certain enablers or services to become reality. The traditional roadmaps are
useful for most purposes, but for more elaborate study the causal development needs to be
identified.

4.1 Critical paths

Some of the needs for clarifying the development of technologies can be answered by
establishing so-called causal or critical paths. Within the context of this study they provide a
way of representing how technology enablers evolve from one to another and what the links
between them are. The common property of such a diagram seems to be that it is almost
impossible to establish a simple critical path for a certain technology enabler; on the detail
level, almost everything connects to everything. There is also a possibility of identifying
critical points, where certain criteria - e.g. emergence of standard - must be satisfied in order
to take one more step in the path.
In the following we have identified the main critical paths and critical points from the
material gathered from the roadmaps. It must be pointed out that none of the evaluated
roadmaps included presentations of such paths. It also seems that these kinds of diagrams
have not been formerly published on such a scale as is done here. We believe that the
following critical paths are among the first attempts at clarifying the development paths of
services and networks. Naturally, not all things can be included for clarity due to the limited
resources for this work, but we hope the most essential ones are in place. We are sure that
one could find countless numbers of ways of establishing these graphs, but as they are
published here they provide a basis for comments and suggestions for further improvement.

24

Future/Vision

Past/Now

Time
C ommerce
Business
Models
Services
C ontext
Aw areness

Technology C entric W orld

C ontent

U ser C entric W orld

D igital Identity
and Security
Mobile
Terminals
N etw orks
R adio
Technology

Figure 3. Overview of the critical paths

Figure 3 shows the main identified critical paths in the evolution from a technology-centric
world to user-centric world. Today we are in a technology-centric world, where technology
develops almost independently from user needs. In the future, the development and use of
technology should originate from user needs.
In order to create a manageable number of critical paths, these 9 categories were chosen:
commerce, business models, services, context awareness, content, digital identity and
security, mobile terminals, networks and radio technology. The overall categorisation was
made to satisfy both the classifications found in the roadmaps and the interests of those
people who participated the roadmap process - i.e. mainly the thematic group members.
The colours shown in the graphs are mainly to make the paths easier to read. In general,
those enablers that are closer to what we have today are marked with white and green, and
those that are more headed in the future are in grey. The lines or links between enablers may
have several meanings, e.g. evolution in time, dependence between enablers or requirement
depending on the situation.

25

4.1.1

Commerce

Future/Vision

Past/Now

Time
Shopping and Commerce on the
Internet

Point and order on

the move

e/m-shopping

Readers in
Handhelds

RFID

Tagged
products

E-commerce

The Internet

G lobal Naming,
Numbering, and
Addressing

IPv6

Common
Authentication

SIP

All-IP

Telecommunication
Networks

Digital
Identity

M-commerce

Mobile Commerce
ubiquitously available,
network & terminal
indepence
common charging,
privacy & security

O pen Service
platforms

3G
SIM based
authentication

Charging

Mobile
Payment
O ne Invoice

Figure 4. Commerce
Figure 4 presents the critical path for commerce. Commerce is separately evolving in the
Internet and telecommunication networks, which are expected to converge in the future and
provide a common way of selling and purchasing services, products and things.
In the vision of the future people will be able to buy and easily consume services anywhere
they are provided by All-IP connectivity, and with many new ways provided by a natural
access to mobile commerce services.
Commerce requires security and the digital identity of customers, resellers and products.
Open service platforms will speed up the commerce development by integrating new
resellers into a global m-commerce network. Common authentication allows the
identification of the people and different parties involved in commercial transactions over
different networks.
In the future, commerce will go towards a point-and-order type of interaction. Tagged
products and mobile devices capable of reading tag information will provide access to
product information and make purchases instantly using mobile devices on the move.
An important role for commerce is the development of payment methods. There are three
major approaches: mobile operator charging system (local), credit card companies - e.g.

26

VISA - (global) and digital money (global). The low cost per payment transaction is crucial
in the competition between these approaches. In addition, the users trust of a payment
method is important - this is especially challenging for digital money.
The critical points in commerce are: user acceptance of new types of purchasing commonly
used trusted invoicing, payment and authentication systems, tagged products and tag readers
in terminals.

4.1.2

Business Models

Future/Vision

Past/Now

Time

System integrators
Information
Technology

Integration of Information and Communication

Technologies based on IP

ICT

Communication
Technology

Contract
manufacturer

O riginal Design
Manufacturer O DM

Equipment
manufacturer

Original Equipment
Manufacturer O EM
Equipment
manufacturer

IP Operators

Virtual operators
Network provider
with services

Network
provider

Service
provider

Network operator with services

Service provider for mobile user

Internet

ISP/W ISP

Content provider

Application
Developer

Large number of
business roles
and rapidly
changing
business models

Content aggregator

Broker

Content
Provisioning

Application Service
Provider ASP

Application
aggretator

"End-users" providing
services

3rd party added value

service provider

Figure 5. Business models

The advent of real ICT technology will be seen as information technology, and
communication technologies will be integrated and based on IP.
The business models are quite stable in person-to-person messaging (GSM, SMS, MMS),
although the situation is different in corporate solutions; there are more possibilities for new
actors and innovative business models as the actors business roles are changing. For
example, a current IT partner offering IT systems and fixed line data traffic may also start to
provide mobile GSM and data services.
The business models will change more rapidly and the number of business stakeholders will
increase. Telco's provided the network connection and voice services in the development

27

phase of the mobile services. Later, they also started to provide a large number of data
transport, infotainment and downloadable application services.
Regulation has an effect on the evolution of business roles. The competition authorities in the
EU and US emphasize open competition without monopolies. As a result, operators are
forced to open their network infrastructure to other players. Such new players are virtual
operators that use existing network operator infrastructure to provide GSM and data services
for their customers. Another revolution in the service market is the connection from the
terminal to the Internet - the realisation of a mobile Internet. This gives large opportunities
for service providers in the Internet to provide services to mobile users as well. Users can
then choose the Internet services independent of their mobile connectivity operator.
The general trend is towards separation of the network operator business role into network
infrastructure provider and service provider roles. In addition to the telecom business, a
similar trend can be identified in the broadcasting business - e.g. separation of digital
television network provider and digital television service provider.
The All-IP environment will be very versatile. There is a demand for third-party service
providers in order to reduce complexity and increase interoperability and communication.
Third-party added-value service providers will offer services for identification purposes
between individuals and businesses (e.g. MS .NET Passport [37], Liberty Alliance [38]),
managing context information, charging, personal data management, personal profiles
management and certification, etc. Brokers and aggregators will provide a platform where a
vast number of services, businesses and users can meet.
The "distance" between service provider and service consumer in value chains will be
shortened in the future. Examples of this are Internet music (MP3, CD) and the movie
business (DVD), downloadable mobile applications, etc. It will become easier and easier for
new actors to start providing services in the network. In the long term, even end users may
become service providers. This requires that business models include users not only as
people who pay for all the services but also as content creators and service providers.
The business models will have to cope with increased interoperability and open interfaces in
order to create the possibilities for gaining revenue by letting other parties use their resources
for a fee. The challenges in combined ALL-IP services reside mostly in business logic rather
than in technology. Already today these kinds of services can be realized, but business
models will not provide all actors in the business network with an incentive to start doing
business.
All-IP will provide global connectivity and markets, but local content and services will have
an important role in peoples everyday lives. For example, one will be able to download
DVD movies from a service provider abroad, but the local bus timetables, etc., will still be
found from a local service provider.

28

As the technology development cycle gets shorter and the technology complexity increases,
the possibility that even the largest companies can hold all the necessary knowledge and be
as fast as required in R&D will decrease. The current trend of contract manufacturing - e.g.
ODM, aggregator and integrator companies - will continue, especially in mobile terminal
development.
The critical points are the emergence of new business models that would provide revenues
for all actors in the E2E chain, adaptation to global markets and interoperability of business
actors' systems.

4.1.3

Services

Future/Vision

Past/Now

Time

All-IP

O ne service,
one network

Services available via all

networks and operators

Service access over networks

eG overment
Voting, Tax

Secure
Interoperability of
services

Internet
eHealth
QoS required, terminal capabilities, user
acceptance for video calls

Chat
Email, news

Common Access to
medical and government
services

SIP

Instant
messaging

Multimedia
conferencing &
telephony

Context-aware
communication

e-mail
Autonomous ubi-services in
All-IP networks

Peer2peer
applications

File transfer

Computers
Understand content

Web
browsing

Semantic
web
Automated M2M

Common interfaces and formats

Remote access to
systems

Information in many
places, needs users
own effort

SMS

Ipv6

M2M
GPRS

SIP

SIP-based
M2M

Augmented
reality

Virtual
reality

Agents /
Avatars

Figure 6. Services
In general, services offered to users will follow the same technological paths as the
commerce path (Figure 4) and context awareness (Figure 7). Context awareness is one of the
key points to avoid frustrating users with too much irrelevant content in different situations.
The main vision of autonomous services (Figure 6) is that services will be available over any
access, user intervention will be reduced, and more and more services will appear. The main
issues surrounding this trend are a semantic web, secure interoperability of services,
multimedia conferencing, peer2peer applications, SIP, M2M, and agent-based programs in
virtual reality.

29

The important issue for mobile services is the service discovery. Typically today, the
information about mobile services - e.g. logos, ring tones and JAVA applications - is found
from traditional media, such as magazines and newspapers, and from web portals. In order to
have a successful mobile service business in the future, users should be able to find services
easily from the networks and from the surrounding environment in real time.
New services will emerge around multimedia communication, community sharing of content
and experience between family and friends, and local information services - e.g. tourist
guides, infotainment and e/mCommerce.
eGoverment and eHealth services will be available separately in the beginning, but later any
access will be used to access both services easily. This will require secure interoperability of
service infrastructures. The benefit of these systems is identified in the roadmaps to reduce
the costs of medical and government infrastructures.
A semantic web will allow computers to discover information sources, and interpret and
process information autonomously. Semantic web technologies are the main enabler for
service interoperability and a semantic web is one of the key technologies that will allow
automation of information sharing and processing between participants. For users, the service
interoperability will allow switching between services and using and sharing the data
managed and created by different services.
Multimedia conferencing and telephone and peer-to-peer services will enable richer
communication and easy distribution of information between users. The usage of the
different services (WWW, instant messaging, chat and email) that are used today will be
unified by SIP support over different networks. Rich calls will consist of calls combining
different media and services, such as voice, video and mobile multimedia messaging, into a
single call session.
Remote access to different systems and equipment is already provided by GPRS and SMSbased technologies. In the future, SIP could be used to open control sessions between these
systems. Semantic web information will provide the possibility of automating the exchange
of information between the services, systems and business transactions.
Information processing today is characterized by the fact that information is scattered in
different places, which are mainly accessible using manual searching with WWW browsers.
Information processing is going towards automation. Firstly, augmented reality systems will
embed information in the surrounding environment, which will then be accessible in different
ways - e.g. displays in spectacles and head-up displays in cars. After a vast amount of
information is available, monitoring of the new information will become too difficult for the
user. The solution to this will be avatars and agents working in virtual reality to allow
systems to make decisions and actions on behalf of the user.
Critical points for service evolution are: ease of use, service discovery, access to services
over networks and channels, personalisation and context awareness in services,
interoperability of services, functional security and authentication and management of
information, possibility of using services anonymously and lower technical threshold to
create services.

30

4.1.4

Context awareness

Context awareness is a key issue in the future services and applications ability to adapt the
amount and type of information provided to users at a given time and place. Figure 7 shows
the major paths to context-adaptive services, which consists of a user profile standard,
content-adaptation technologies and collecting context information from different locations.
Collecting, sharing and managing personal information and digital identity are prerequisites
to discovering new services from the networks that might be interesting to the user. A user
profile standard is needed for storing and using different types of context and profile
information on the users. The profile can be also used to find and customize services for the
users. Keeping a user profile in the network requires that users have a global identity and can
be authenticated. Most likely, the user profile standard will evolve from the
telecommunication networks.

Future/Vision

Past/Now

Time

Digital Identity

Satellite positioning

Global context
available in all
services

Cell id, A-GPS

Cellular
location-based
Context

Telecommunication
Networks

G lobal location
awareness

User Personal
Profile Standard

Network profiles

Terminal Profiles

Context Adaptive
Services

Content Adaptation

Context from
environment
User Context
awareness

Presence

Electronic calendar

Terminals

Positioning

Learning User Habits

PIM context

Sensors in terminals
- noise, compass,
acceleration,
proximity...

Shared context through

local connectivity e.g.
between phones

Context Sensing
Terminals

Figure 7. Context awareness

Content adaptation technologies need information about the networks and terminals the user
is using in order to provide content in the correct format. The network and terminals
properties can be described by using profile information that enumerates the systems
capabilities.
The users current situation is a more complex issue. This will be used to reduce unwanted
content, based on, for example, the time and place of the user. It seems that the information
that can be utilized by content adaptation and context awareness is located in different places,

31

and the information can be used differently depending on the situation. Future terminals and
networks will support various ways of obtaining context information and managing user
personal profiles and personal information, and automating service usage and communication
in daily life. One of the challenges is to communicate the relevant context information from
the various context sources to the service that is bring used - e.g. from sensors, mobile
terminals (e.g. sensors in a mobile terminal or shared context from other mobile terminals)
and networks (e.g. presence information or user profiles, user access rights etc.). The sensors
in terminals provide information about the sounds, illumination and temperature surrounding
the user, and the velocity, direction and actions taken by users - e.g. standing, running,
walking, etc.
The interoperability of different context sources requires a standardised way of presenting
and communicating the context. In addition to using context information to tailor the services
to the users' perspective, operators may also use context information for network admission
control and resource allocation - e.g. by knowing the mobile users direction from network
cell to another.
Services and applications may need position information of the user. Global location services
are provided by GPS, Galileo or Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), which would
mean combining many western and eastern satellite systems. The cellular and satellite
positioning will be merged - e.g. by A-GPS - but locally it could be meaningful to provide
positioning information also in local wireless networks e.g. using WLAN positioning.
In addition to location, the telecommunication networks can provide presence information,
which is valuable to context-based applications. On the other hand, business users in
particular keep an electronic calendar, which can also be utilized by context-aware services.
In more advanced scenarios the systems might be able to observe and learn user habits. This
information could be used to automate a repeating service usage on behalf of the user.
Critical points for context awareness are: user acceptance and control over automation and
adaptivity, management of context information (acquisition, processing, storing, sharing and
use), infrastructure support for context (sensors and intelligence in terminals and
environment, presence and location information) and common standards for context
information.

32

4.1.5

Content

Future/Vision

Past/Now

Time

Price/bit/service

Multimedia services
over fixed IP

Internet webpages

Mobile Multimedia

Telepresence

Fast data transmission

New coding standards

New coding
technologies

MPEG 4

Automatic
Content/Information
Processing

XML, SOAP

Web services
Content
Description
Languages

Semantic Web

O ntology
Standardized
Metadata

Metadata

All content searchable

and available to all
terminals

Searchable Storage
Systems

Databases

Common DRM standard,

industry practise, user
acceptance

DRM

Content created by
specialists

Realtime
Media Analysis

Individuals create
content and share

G lobal Content
Intellectual Property

G lobal content sharing

Context
Adaptive
Services

New content formats

Figure 8. Content
Figure 8 shows the critical path concerning the creation, management and consumption of
content. The content will be globally accessed using a diversity of terminals and networks,
content management and processing will be more automated, and content semantics will be
more and more understood by applications.
The way to create content is evolving from specialists to individual users and eventually all
content will be available to all when authorised. The critical paths leading to this are contextadaptive services, automatic content processing, management of intellectual property on a
global scale, and storage systems that distribute content in different ways using broadcasting
and other multimedia transmission methods.
Automatic content processing is made possible by semantic web technologies, real-time
media analysis and standardized metadata formats. These allow the automatic processing and
indexing of content into searchable storage systems. Management of owner and usage rights
of the content (DRM) is a precondition to searchable storage systems and it will increase the
popularity of developing new content. DRM techniques will evolve from the mobile
environment to a global scale.
New efficient information coding techniques are needed to reduce the amount of delivered
data in mobile multimedia communication, broadcasting and multimedia transmissions of the
content in the future. For multimedia coding, there is still much to be improved in coding
efficiency from the current MPEG-4 standard. As the compression ratio is improved, the

33

coding needs to be lightweight in order to match the mobile terminal processing capabilities
and reduce power consumption.
Critical points for content are: development of more efficient coding methods and content
description languages, storage capacity, search functionalities, Intellectual Property Rights
(IPR) protection, and Digital Rights Management (DRM).

4.1.6

Digital security and digital identity

Future/Vision

Past/Now

Time
Local firewalls and virus
protection

Virus and SPAM filtering in

network borders

Multiple user ids +

passwords

Security and filtering solutions (DRM, SPAM,

virus) embedded to telecom infrastructure

Common security

Multiple Digital
Identities

presently in trial use

Biometric
identification

Traditional
Passport

Encryption

Biometric
Profile

standardisation

"ICAO " digital

passport

Public Key
Infrastructure

Possibility to
identify user if
needed or be
autonomous when
using a service

G lobal
authentication
services+ trusted
3rd party

Local
Authentication

SIM
Password

Biometric information in
digital format

AAA servers

easy to use PGP

Digital
Signature

Single Sign-on

Personal Information

G lobal Naming+
Addressing

Figure 9. Digital security and digital identity

Digital identity and security (Figure 9) is a major challenge for future services and networks.
In the future, a single digital user identity is needed to provide users with commerce and
government services. On the other hand, user privacy must allow anonymous access to
information and commerce, as well as absolutely guarantee user identity in some other
situations.
Today, tamper-proof materials are used in passports and identity cards, and computer
readable digital codes are stored in smart cards to allow an identity check on the card user. In
the short term, biometric identification will be used to store and compare biometric
information for different authentication purposes. Measurements of various different user
biometric parameters will be a key technology for allowing easy but secure access to
services. Eventually, biometric information could replace the textual user and password pairs.

34

One critical challenge for All-IP networks is security. Already today (2004) we are facing
severe problems with viruses, worms, SPAM and malicious attacks in networks. In order to
cope with these, the networks and computers have to be protected, e.g. with firewalls. As
more and more devices are connected to the Internet, so more protection is needed. The lack
of security or restrictions caused by security solutions (e.g. firewalls do not pass necessary
traffic for certain applications) may endanger the vision of ubiquitous access. There are also
a huge number of relatively simple devices connected to All-IP networks, such as consumer
electronics and sensors. It is not likely that these devices can be protected as well as more
powerful devices such as computers. Therefore, the security must be established in the
telecom infrastructure.
Global authentication services will be needed to guarantee the users digital identity during
anonymous access (from the viewpoint of the service provider) and fully identified access to
services (e.g. access to bank or company). Both Internet and telecommunication network
technologies will support the path. Common AAA servers will provide authentication,
authorization and accounting globally for all users.
Personal information can be stored in networks as a profile, which can be partly revealed to
service providers during the service access. The key point of security is that global naming
and addressing is available, after which the authentication services can be arranged globally.
Critical points for digital identity and security are: trusted global and local identification
(biometric identification, digital signature), development of virus protection methods and
SPAM filtering, improvements in network infrastructure security and anonymous use of
services.

35

4.1.7

Mobile terminals

Future/Vision

Past/Now
NETW O RK CENTRICITY

BIW displays

Extra features e.g.

headphones, FM radio

TERMINAL CENTRICITY

Color displays

3D displays

Time

non-rigid displays

Sensors in terminals
- noise, compass, acceleration, proximity...

Camera
Intelligent applications

Proprietary sw in MT

O pen platforms
Symbian/JAVA/
MS/Linux/SavaJe

Communication with other devices

e.g. other terminals, home appliances,
sensors, actuators e.g. NFC, RFID

Contextual, sensing
mobile terminal

Applications provided by
3:rd parties

O ne access
e.g. G SM

O ne modality

O ne antenna

Multi-access e.g.
2G ,3G , W LAN, short
range, DVB-H

Parallel radio multi-access

Multimodal, natural
interfaces

Several modalities e.g. keys, voice

Sector Antennas

MIMO in BS
Smart antenna array in BS

MIMO on MT and BS
Smart antenna in MT/BS
Power usage and high heat
production critical

NiCd batteries

Li-ion batteries

DMFC fuel cells

New advanced fuel cells

Figure 10. Mobile terminals

The critical paths of the mobile terminals (Figure 10) consist of display, software, user
interface, air interface, communication, antenna, and power technology paths.
We are facing a change from network centricity towards terminal centricity. The service that
is found and used in a network (e.g. the network operator provides these services) will more
often be found from the one terminal the user is carrying. Terminals could also be used for
many new purposes, like mp3 player, radio receiver, TV receiver, camera, remote control,
data storage and GPS device. In this sense, terminals will get "thicker" and take a market
share of these formerly separated devices, especially in the low-cost category.
Already today the terminals have open software platforms like JAVA, Symbian, MicroSoft
Windows, Linux, etc. This development will continue in the future. The terminals will have
similar applications to those that are found in a PC, but more and more often third parties will
provide applications that use the phone as a platform for many new purposes. This evolution
requires that the programming languages used in the terminals can use most of the
functionalities that the terminal possesses - i.e. more interfaces. Another challenging issue is
the interoperability of applications in terminals that have different operating systems. It is
likely that there will be many competing operating systems in terminals at first, but
eventually only a few will have a leading role in the markets. This situation resembles the
evolution of the PC operating system in recent years.

36

The user interface evolution consists of displays, multimodal interfaces and standard
applications, such as GPS, camera, biometric identification, etc. Multimodal interfaces are
the key technology as they determine the appearance and interaction of a device or
application. Multimodal interfaces will be optional to keyboard and mouse. Pen, speech, and
gesture-based operation will be increasingly popular for mobile consumer terminals.
The air interface consists of radio and antenna evolution in wireless networks. At present the
terminals are only capable of accessing one network at a time and a terminal is capable of
switching a radio network from GSM to UMTS. Parallel radio multi-access will allow access
to different radio networks at the same time. Antenna evolution promises increased
throughput and more optimal utilization of bandwidth using multiple input-output-capable
base stations and mobile terminals.
Terminals will be able to communicate with a large number of other devices using different
techniques (e.g. NFC, RDIF). Many types of sensors will be also embedded in future devices
to allow control of applications and to sense the current user context.
New multimedia applications, the many radio interfaces that may be used simultaneously,
and the increased intelligence in terminals will clearly require higher amounts of power.
Todays battery technology may not be able provide a sufficient amount of power/volume an issue that could become critical. Low-temperature fuel cells, such as the Direct Methanol
Fuel Cell (DMFC), may replace rechargeable batteries and solve this challenge. But if the
power issue is solved, another critical issue comes with the extensive heat production and
cooling for the handheld terminals.
Critical points for terminal development are: open sw-platforms and programming languages
that are interoperable and have more interfaces to terminal functionalities, development of
display technology, integration of sensors to terminals, ease of use, power consumption and
heat production.

37

4.1.8

Networks

Future/Vision

Past/Now
Unicast
networks

Multicast
networks

Unicast/multicast/broadcast used in
conjuction

Time

Simple & easy transition mechanisms

3GPP rel6, Asia and US dept. of defence pull for IPv6

IPv6 test networks

(end2end)

Transition period
(IPv4 and IPv6)

E2E IPv4 Internet

E2E All-IPv6 Internet

Commercial Internet IPv4

Short range
networks

Internet
convergence

Home/Local
networks

PAN and ad hoc

networks

VPN

Converged networks,
seamless access

Sensor networks

Fixed-line Internet

QoS in networks

Cellular Networks

Mobile Internet

Mobile networks
SIP

ABC
3GPP rel 7 enables

Intra-technology
roaming and HO
in same techn.

Mobility

Vertical handover e.g.

3G-W LAN within
same operator

Multi-access

Seamless interdomain
handover between
technologies

Mobile
multi-homing

Session
mobility

Independent flow
mobility

Session split over

several interfaces

Figure 11. Networks

The Internet architecture was originally designed for connecting stationary computers.
During its evolution the computers were collected as sub-networks, which were connected to
the Internet. The wireless Internet was established when wireless networks such as WLAN
and cellular networks were connected to Internet. Presently the xDSL connection is
becoming familiar in homes as a fixed line Internet connection. The virtual private network
(VPN) technology provides a secure connection for home and business systems over
different networks.
The major challenge for network development lies in the all-IP paradigm, where all kinds of
devices (sensors, M2M and home appliances) and networks (e.g. cellular, broadband, home,
personal area, sensor and ad hoc networks) are inherently connected to the all-IP Internet.
Today, the cellular networks provide some services using the WAP and Internet protocols,
whereas in the future all or most of the network services will be accessed using the IP
protocol.
The content, especially voice and video, will be delivered using IP packets in all networks.
These applications require very low latency, jitter and delay, which can be guaranteed in the
same operator network or between operators using same technology - e.g. 3g. Therefore, in
All-IP heterogeneous telecommunication network systems it is critical that true end-to-end
(E2E) QoS can be established and maintained.
Mobility management, QoS, charging, security, privacy, etc., are critical issues to be assured
in All-IP networks - all things that were not designed for original best effort in a non-secure

38

Internet. It can be foreseen that there is a great need for new standards, protocols and best
practices concerning these issues in order to realise All-IP networking. The deployment of
IPv6 is also critical; the address space of IPv4 is running out and the current IP version 4
does not give as good support for security and QoS as IPv6. China has chosen their own
approach by establishing a new IP protocol, version 9, which should be interoperable with
earlier versions.
At least one, most likely several, networks will be available to users at any time. Flexible
network selection and usage from applications is a difficult issue. Vertical and horizontal
handover, as well as mobility between devices, will allow natural ubiquitous access to
services. Networks in the home and outside, and between devices are continuously being
changed and optimised by various protocols and methods without user intervention. The
critical issue will be the management of this process - would it be possible for networks to
communicate between each other and manage an always-on connection for a mobile user?
There is still much to come in the development path for mobility. From one open network
connection at a time, we will have many simultaneous connections to different services using
different radio interfaces. Furthermore, when we move, the session of these open services
must be maintained whilst the network connections vary. For this, multi-homing will provide
one device with many IP-addresses. Device will also be able to use multiple interfaces, e.g.
WLAN and UMTS, simultaneously and split traffic to most appropriate ones.
Sometimes, users will be using several devices at the same time and intelligent information
routing will be a key enabler in providing multi-access over networks and access types from
applications in different terminals to service content. Eventually, in the ideal case, the flow
mobility will manage the different streams (e.g. video and voice) separately to the most
appropriate available terminal (e.g. voice to headphones and video to wall screen) that
satisfies user requirement and context. The challenges are even greater for all-kinds of
mobility (terminal, session, flow) when the user's Personal Area Network is connected to
other PANs.
As the development pushes for higher data rates by advanced compression techniques,
diversity techniques and new radio interfaces, the way the TCP/IP stack works with new
systems may become a bottleneck. Already today there are examples of this kind of problem
- e.g. a high roundtrip packet delay triggers Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) congestion
control in 2.5 and 3G systems. Solutions for further development of telecommunication
systems could arise from cross-layer techniques with protocol optimisations between the
TCP/IP stack.
Critical issues for network technology evolution are: management of heterogeneous network
infrastructure, exploitation of All-IP with IPv6 protocol, end-to-end management of QoS,
security, session continuity, and operation of new kinds of networks like sensor and personal
area networks.

39

4.1.9

Radio technology
Future/Vision

Past/Now
Satellite
Broadcast

Satellite Systems
Analog T V and Radio

Terrestrial
wireless trunking

DVB-C/T/H, DAB

Microwave links

Terrestial fixed broadband

wireless access systems

Terrestrial mobile
cellular systems
(Europe)

Time

Digital Satellite systems, DBS

IEEE 802.16 W iMax

Voice
oriented

NMT

G SM

UMT S
4G

GPRS

Data oriented

EDG E

SDR
cognitive radio

UMTS PS and HSDPA

TETRA

Terrestrial local
(indoor) wireless
systems

Voice
oriented

DECT

WLAN

IEEE 802.11 a/b/g/...

Data oriented

IR

IEEE 802.15.1 Bluetooth

IEEE 802.15.4 Z igBee

WPAN

IEEE 802.15.3 W iMedia

Near field
communication

RF ID

IEEE 802.15.3a & 4a UW B

NFC

Figure 12. Radio technology

Figure 12 presents the critical paths of the radio technology. The general trend is that the cell
size of wide-area networks is getting smaller while the throughput is increasing. Wide-area
communication technologies follow a path from NMT and GSP systems towards 3G
variations (UMTS in Europe). New standards are emerging e.g. WiMax could be used for
similar purposes as WLAN's, or as fixed wireless broadband access technologies due to its
high bandwidth and communication range. Local wireless communication technologies
WiMedia and ZigBee are emerging in addition to Bluetooth. In addition, RFID and NFC are
used in very-short-range wireless communication, e.g. for tagged products and sensors.
The roadmaps place high expectations on the development of Direct Sequence/Frequency
Hopping Code Division Multiple access DS/FH-CDMA, Multi Carrier CDMA (MC-CDMA)
and SDMA techniques as future radio interfaces. OFDM is seen as a very promising
technique for bandwidth efficiency, but its usage may be restricted by low mobility.
There are physical limits in radio access, like frequency band, that should be exploited as
efficiently as possible, e.g. with frequency-sharing rules that allow different radio standards
to co-exist in same spectrum.
In general, it is expected that the number of network technologies will increase. The need for
new network technologies will arise from a ubiquitous environment and ever-increasing
amount of multimedia traffic. The increase will be most prominent in the wireless domain.
Those technologies existing today will be developed further for higher efficiency. Due to the
number of communication methods and the differences between them, a software-defined
radio (SDR) is seen as a requirement for future terminals. SDR will allow the use of a single
hardware platform for different kinds of digital communication technologies, allowing
terminals to reconfigure as required by the available network conditions.
Critical points for radio technology development are: more efficient usage of spectrum,
development of short-range radio technologies for very high bit rate, PAN and ubiquitous
use, radio interface and HW optimisation for low-power usage, and development of Software
Defined Radio (SDR).
40

5 Discussion
An extensive review and analysis of the major ICT Roadmaps was carried out during this
roadmap process. Comments and feedback for the work were collected from a large number
of experts. Nine critical paths were created for visualizing paths from the technology-centric
world to the user-centric world.
Based on an analysis of the major ICT roadmaps, the most important topics have been
identified and are summarized below. The envisaged development in network services and
related technology enablers has been presented in Table 2.
The content of the roadmaps has been classified under five different clusters: services,
terminals, networks, content and security.
Based on the analysis of the major ICT roadmaps and the interviews with the experts, it can
be said that we are moving towards a more natural use of network services in different
branches of life. This view incorporates the advancements in technologies encouraging users
to collaborate and share content, and use personalized and increasingly intelligent services.
As the amount of available services and content increases, there will be functions for helping
the user to manage services and content automatically based on his context or profiles.
Terminals are becoming more versatile and effective platforms for different applications and
services. In the long term terminals and even our environment will be able to take users into
account more naturally than today. Terminals will be equipped with an increasing number of
radio access technologies, local connectivity will be more important, sensors technology will
enable new features in terminals and user interaction technologies will help terminals to
become more user friendly and easy to use than today. Power will be one of the main
challenges in terminals in the coming years. In the long term software-defined radios will be
embedded in terminals. A complementing view of terminal development is an approach
whereby the user can communicate with digital surroundings without the terminal.
Networks will develop rapidly. They are converging and bandwidth is increasing remarkably
quickly, both for stationary and mobile users. Internet protocol will be the dominant network
protocol. Accurate global positioning, sensor networks and personal area networks will
emerge. Bandwidth is increasing towards 100 Mbps for mobile users and 1Gbps for
stationary users by the beginning of next decade. There will be new enablers for local
connectivity and the use of personal area networks and sensor networks will be part of
people's everyday lives.
Digital multimedia content will be the main traffic in future networks. As the amount of
digital content will increase dramatically, there will be an increased need for solutions for
more effective coding techniques, content management and rights management of the
content.

41

As organisations and businesses, as well as people in general, become more dependent on

network-based services and information technology, it is increasingly important that these
systems and services are trustworthy. Based on the roadmaps and interviews there is an
increased need for solutions and techniques to establish end-to-end security in networks and
trusted services.
Critical paths and critical points for mobile service technologies were identified from the
material gathered from the roadmaps. None of the evaluated roadmaps included presentations
of such paths. It also seems that these kinds of analyses have not previously been published
on such a scale as is done here. We believe that the analysis of critical paths is one of the first
attempts at clarifying the development paths of services and networks.
Nine categories were chosen for more extensive analysis of critical paths: commerce,
business models, services, context awareness, content, digital identity and security, mobile
terminals, networks and radio technology. These critical paths were considered important on
the way from the technology-centric world towards the user-centric world
The main findings - i.e. critical points - discovered in the critical paths are summarized
below:

Commerce user acceptance of new types of purchasing commonly used, trusted

invoicing, payment and authentication systems, tagged products and tag readers in
terminals.

Business Models The critical point for future services, especially in an all-IP
environment are emergence of new business models that would provide revenues for
all actors in the E2E chain, adaptation to global markets and interoperability of
business actors' systems.

Services - ease of use, service discovery, access to services over networks and
channels, personalisation and context awareness in services, interoperability of
services, functional security and authentication and management of information,
possibility of using services anonymously and lower technical threshold to create
services.

Context Awareness user acceptance and control over automation and adaptivity,
management of context information (acquisition, processing, storing, sharing and
use), infrastructure support for context (sensors and intelligence in terminals and
environment, presence and location information) and common standards for context
information.

42

Content - development of more efficient coding methods and content description

languages, storage capacity, search functionalities, Intellectual Property Rights (IPR)
protection and Digital Rights Management (DRM).

Digital Security and identity - trusted global and local identification (biometric
identification, digital signature), development of virus protection methods and
SPAM filtering, improvements in network infrastructure security and anonymous use
of services.

Mobile Terminals - open sw-platforms and programming languages that are

interoperable, interfaces to terminal functionalities, development of display
technology, integration of sensors to terminals, ease of use, power consumption and
heat production.

Networks - management of heterogeneous network infrastructure, exploitation of AllIP with IPv6 protocol, end-to-end management of QoS, security, session continuity,
operation of new kinds of networks like sensor and personal area networks.

Radio Technology more efficient usage of spectrum, development of short-range

radio technologies for very high bit rate, PAN and ubiquitous use, radio interface and
HW optimisation for low-power usage and development of Software-Defined Radio
(SDR).

43

Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the following people for their valuable comments
and input to this roadmap. This work would not have been possible without comments,
suggestions and workshops with the Tekes NETS programme thematic group members,
especially the members of groups 1b and 3a, who are gratefully acknowledged. We are also
grateful that we were given the opportunity to interview experts in a number of companies
and organisations who gave us valuable insight and new views on improving our work.
The following people that gave comments and participated in the workshops during the
roadmap process are gratefully acknowledged: Heli Kukko (Tekes), Anssi Kujala (JPEpstar), Katja Ahola (Tekes), Risto Alander (Elisa), Olli Lukkari (MFO), Mika Ruostesuo
(Ardites), Jari Forstadius (University of Oulu), Mikko Jalonen TY/IT (TUCS), Timo
Leppinen (Ficora), Jari Ala-Ruona (Movial), Ville Typp (VTT), Arto Laikari (VTT), Reijo
Savola (VTT), Timo Prkk (University of Oulu), Jouko Sankala (Nethawk), Veli-Matti
Tuovila (Movial), Pasi Viitanen (VTT), Heikki Ailisto (VTT), Esko Strmmer (VTT), Miska
Kaipiainen (MEshCom), Jarkko Niittylahti (staselog), Max Bjorgren (Radionet), Kari Tilli
(Tekes), Raimo Kantola (HUT).
We gratefully acknowledge the following people that were interviewed for the roadmap:
Risto Alander (Elisa), Olli Martikainen (ETLA), Sami Grnberg (TeliaSonera), Bjrn Melen
(Ericsson), Lauri Haapanen (Incode), Timo Leppinen (Ficora), Kari-Pekka Estola (Nokia),
Raija Tervo-Pellikka (HUT) and Heikki Hmminen (HUT)

44

References
1. WWRF, Wireless World Research Forum, http://www.wireless-world-research.org/, 2004.
2. IST-Ambient Networks project, http://www.ambient-networks.org/, 2004.
3. IST-E2R project, http://www.e2r.motlabs.com/, 2004.
4. IST-WINNER project, http://www.ist-winner.org/, 2004.
5. Mikko A. Uusitalo, WWRF chairman, Nokia, Personal communication and draft material
of Book of Visions 2003, 15.3.2004.
6. CELTIC, www.celtic-initiative.org, 1.3.2004.
7. EUREKA, http://www.eureka.be, 2004.
8. IST Key Action II FP6 preparation roadmap projects, New Methods of Work and
Electronic Commerce, http://www.cordis.lu/ist/ka2/roadmap.html, 2002.
9. IST-MBnet, http://www.mobiforum.org/, 2003.
10. IST-IDEAS, www.ideas-roadmap.net, 2003.
11. IST-ROADCON, http://www.roadcon.org/, 2003.
12. Insight Research Corporation, USA, http://www.insight-corp.com/, 2004.
13. Gartner Inc., http://www3.gartner.com, 2004.
14.
NETS,
Tekes,
Uuden
tietoliikenneohjelman
http://akseli.tekes.fi/Resource.phx/tivi/nets/kuvaus.htx, 29.1.2003.

suunnitelma.

15. ISTAG, IST Advisory Group, http://www.cordis.lu/ist/istag.htm, 2004.

16. IST-WWRI project, Wireless World Research Initiative, http://www.ist-wwri.org/, 2002.
17. Tekes NETS 3a thematic group documents, personal communication with Mr. Anssi
Kujala JP-Epstar, Mr. Risto Alander Elisa, Mr. Jari Ala-Ruona Movial,
http://akseli.tekes.fi/Resource.phx/tivi/nets/aiheryhmakuvaus.htx, 2003-2004.
18. ITEA, www.itea-office.org, 1.4.2004.

45

19. Mobile IT Forum, http://www.mitf.org/index_e.html, 1.4.2004.

20. Tekes, http://www.tekes.fi/eng/, 2004.
21. IEEE, htpp://www.ieee.org, 2004.
22. OMA, Open Mobile Alliance, http://www.openmobilealliance.org/, 2004.
23. ITU, International Telecommunication Union, http://www.itu.int, 2004.
24. ETSI, European Telecommunications Standards Institute, http://www.etsi.org, 2004.
25. 3GPP, 3rd Generation Partnership Project, http://www.3gpp.org, 2004.
26. 3GPP2, 3rd Generation partnership Project 2, htpp://www.3gpp2.org, 2004.
27. Fraunhofer, http://www.fraunhofer.de, 2004.
28. TELEMATICA Instituut, http://www.telin.nl/, 2004.
29. NIST, National Institute of Standards and Technology, http://www.nist.gov, 2004.
30. VTT, Technical Research Centre of Finland, http://www.vtt.fi. 2004.
31. DARPA, The Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency, http://www.darpa.mil. 2004.
32. IPv6 Forum, http://www.ipv6forum.com, 2004.
33. UMST Forum, http://www.umts-forum.org/, 2004.
34. OFDM Forum, Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Forum, http://www.ofdmforum.com, 2004.
35. W3C, World Wide Web Consortium, http://www.w3.org/, 2004.
36. Wi-Fi,Wireless Fidelity, http://www.wi-fi.org, 2004.
37. MS .NET Passport, http://www.passport.net/, 2004.
38. Liberty Alliance Project, http://www.projectliberty.org/, 2004.

46

Appendix A List of symbols

2G/2.5/3G

x Generation Mobile System

3GPP

3rd Generation Partnership Project

AAA

Authorisation, Authentication & Accounting

A/V

Audio/Video

ABC

Always Best Connected

ACM

Adaptive Coding and Modulation

ADSL

Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line

API

Application Programming Interface

AMI

Ambient Intelligence

ATM

Asynchronous Transfer Mode

B2B/b2b

Business-to-Business

B2C/b2c

Business-to-Consumer

BAN

Body Area Network

BW

Bandwidth

CC/PP

Composite Capabilities/Preferences Profile

CDI

Content Distribution Internetworking

CDMA

Code Division Multiple Access

CELTIC

Co-operation for a
Telecommunications

COPS

Common Open Policy Service

CORBA

Common Object Request Broker Architecture

CPN

Customer Premise Network

DAB

Digital Audio Broadcasting

DARPA

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

DBS

Digital Broadcast Satellite

DEAS

Interoperability Developments for Enterprise Application and

Software

DMFC

Direct Methanol Fuel Cell

47

European

sustained

Leadership

in

DiffServ

Differentiated Services

DRM

Digital Rights Management

DS/FH-CDMA

Direct Sequence/Frequency Hopping Code Division Multiple

access

DSL

Digital Subscriber Line

DVB

Digital Video Broadcast

D-WDM

Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing

e2e

End-to-End

EDGE

Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution

EDI

Electronic Data Interchange

ETSI

European Telecommunications Standards Institute

FDM

Frequency Division Multiplexing

FDMA

Frequency Division Multiple Access

G-MPLS

Generalized MPLS

GNSS

Global Navigation Satellite System

GSM

Global System for Mobile communications

GPRS

General Packet Radio Service

GPS

Global Positioning System

HAVi

Home Audio Video Interoperability

HFC

Hybrid Fiber Coax

HSDPA

High Speed Downlink Packet Access

HSI

Human system Interaction

HTML

Hyper Text Mark-up Language

HW

Hardware

ICT

Information & Communication Technology

IEEE

Institute of Electrical & Electronic Engineers

IETF

Internet Engineering Task Force

IMS

IP Multimedia Subsystem

IP

Internet Protocol

48

IP/MPLS

Internet Protocol/Multiprotocol Label Switching

IPR

Intellectual Property Rights

IPV4/6

Internet Protocol Version 4 or 6

ISP

Internet Service Provider

IST

Information Society Technologies

IT

Information Technology

ITEA

Information Technology for European Advancement

ITU

International Telecommunications Union

LAN

Local Area Network

LBS

Location Based Services

m2m

Machine to machine communications

MC-CDMA

Multi Carrier Code Division Multiple Access

MAC

Medium Access Control

MEMS

Microelectromechanical systems

MBnet

A Network of Excellence in mBusiness Applications and Services

MC-CDMA

Multi Carrier CDMA

MCS

Modulation & Coding Scheme

MIMO

Multiple Input/Multiple Output

mITF

mobile IT forum

MIPv6

Mobile IPv6 protocol

MP3

A standard for music compression (MPEG subset)

MPEG-2/4

Motion Picture Experts Group version 2/4

MPLS

Multi Protocol Label Switching

NFC

Near Field Communication

NGN

Next Generation Network

NIST

National Institute of Standards and Technology

ODM

Original Design Manufacturing

OEM

Original Equipment Manufacturing

O-FDM

Optical Frequency Division Multiplexing

49

OFDM

Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing

OMA

Open Mobile Alliance

OPEX

Operating Expenditure

OSA

Open Service Access

OSS

Operations Support System

PAN

Personal Area Network

PAM

Pluggable Authentication Modules

PDA

Personal Digital Assistant

PHY

Physical layer

PKI

Public Key Infrastructure

PoC

Push-to-talk over Cellular

QoS

Quality of Service

RDF

Resource Description Framework

RDIF

Radio Frequency Identification Tags

ROADCON

Strategic Roadmap towards Knowledge-Driven Construction

RoW

Right of Way

SDMA

Space Division Multiple Access

SDR

Software Defined Radio

SIP

Section Initiation Protocol

SLA

Service Level Agreement

SME

Small and Medium Enterprise

SMS

Short Message Service

SOAP

Simple Object Access Protocol

SONET

Synchronous Optical Network (USA standard)

SS7

Signalling System 7

STB

Set-Top Box

SW

Software

TCP

Transmission Control Protocol

TDMA

Time Division Multiple Access

50

UaProf

User Agent Profile

UDDI

Universal Authority Mark-Up Language

UI

User Interface

UMTS

Universal Mobile Telecommunication System

UMTS PS

UMTS Packet Switched

UPnP

Universal Plug and Play

UWB

Ultra Wide Band

VAN

Vehicle Area Network

VDSL

Very High Speed Digital Subscriber Line

VHE

Virtual Home Environment

VoD

Video on Demand

VoIP

Voice over IP

VPN

Virtual Private Network

VTT

Technical research centre of Finland

WAP

Wireless Application Protocol

WDM

Wavelength Division Multiplexing

Wi-Fi

Wireless Fidelity

WLAN

Wireless Local Area Network

WPAN

Wireless Personal Area Network

WWRF

Wireless World Research Forum

WWRI

Wireless World Research Initiative

XDSL x (generic)

Digital Subscriber Line

XML

eXtensible Mark-up Language

XMPP

Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol

Roaming

Mobile device "roams" when it changes its point of attachment to

another (operator) network. Requires formal agreements between
operators and is not seamless - i.e. the current session is not
continued when the next operator network is accessed.

Seamless handover

Current network connection is maintained without disruption when

the mobile terminal connects to a new access network.

51

Appendix B Summary of Company and

Organisation Interviews
A number of interviews were carried out in order to validate the findings of the roadmap
project. The list of people interviewed is in Acknowledgements. The following issues were
raised in the interviews carried out during the process.
During the past 20 years large application benefits have been based on the automation of
industrial, service and business processes and EDI on top of traditional networks. There are
certain strong indicators for improved productivity based on IT and telecommunication.
Productivity and quality improvements, new features, and the cost savings obtained are the
main drivers in adopting IP applications. The average productivity increase in Finnish
industry from ICT investments has been 8-20%. The productivity increase from mobility has
been 40%, so the convergence of IT and Communication is a really important issue.
Regulation is an important issue with regard to various electronics services and it may have
an effect on system design as well. The legislation can be seen as an enabler and high-level
standard, setting boundaries for system design. Not having to do an expensive late redesign
of a system must be taken into account in the early stages of a system design. The legislation
can be seen as a very stable high-level standard, setting rules for service offerings. Special
legislation must be implemented when needed to complement the general legislation,
especially when new technologies and new ways of building services appear. For example,
the Finnish Communications Regulatory Authority has stated that when an operator sells an
IP call service, the call service must conform to the requirements that are in place for a
traditional call. This statement is one of the first regulatory issues concerning IP calls and it
has also been notified abroad.
The slow and very heavy standardisation processes, like 3GPP and ITU/ETSI
standardisation, will not be valid in the future. The ITU and ETSI should take the
standardisation of Next Generation Networks (NGN) seriously and aim to take the IMS
system as a base for NGN and attach it to access networks like xDSL or 3G. ETSI aims to
establish a global partnership group for the development of NGN. In particular, China has
taken the initiative in NGN development in ITU, where they are leading the End-to-End QoS
signalling group part of NGN. The transition to all-NGN will take 10-20 years; in the
meantime there is a mixed network of present and NGN networks. It is also likely that the
major industrial players will create new common practices for "dominant design"
approaches, as was the case with the development of PoC. The standardization of
interoperability between different networking technologies will be an important development
- e.g. applications should be able to roam between GSM/GPRS, WLAN and Wimax
networks.

52

The market makers are the young and children. They are used to new technologies and are
interested in new things. The price for services should be small, since this user group will be
first users but will have few resources. The EU has also stated that the specific categories of
end users (i.e. children, disabled) must be taken into account in telecommunication systems.
In traditional networks this is achieved with large keypads and screens or by feedback in
telephones, emergency calls, etc., but for emergent IP-based call systems very little is being
done. Since everything is to be based on IP, the services and applications would be easy to
deliver and they would gain large markets. This is something that has large potential in the
future, e.g. for SMEs to keep an eye on.
The present mobile networks are not designed for session mobility or handovers between
different operators, even with the same access technology. There are signs that handovers
will work in 2007. Variable bandwidth capability in UMTS is needed. The packing
algorithms need to become adaptive and related to bandwidth. It is likely that the bandwidth
adaptation will be still missing in 2007 and no host identity will be available.
The Internet Protocol (IP) has become the dominant design standard for new telecom
services. All services and terminals will become IP-compatible. At the same time, generic
network services and systems will become commoditized. IPv6 will certainly come before
2012. There are good reasons and major indications for this. First of all, in Asia there are
very few IPv4 addresses and they need IPv6 to enlarge their address space. The major
indication is from the USA, where the Department of Defence has committed to a complete
migration to IPv6 by 2008. IP networks will be pervasive; high prices will not be charged for
use of the network. Terminals will become a commodity. This will consolidate the telecom
industry. Value creation will move from the network to all-IP-based applications. In the
operator networks, IMS will be a platform for services. The IMS system is IPv6-based,
although it will initially be IPv4-based. TCP/IP is an important standard as well as web
services, SOAP and OSA/Parley, and OMA, which will become important techniques in the
IP world.
The main areas for mobile applications are infotainment and positioning services. The
positioning information can be used in many applications for end users. The location
accuracy of a few cm would be challenging but attractive. For infotainment, mobile TV is
likely to be successful. People would like to use their free time with video or TV in a mobile
device. Some monthly fee could be even paid for it, but not on an each-view-time-basis. For
the 3G services, the software development cycle must be short, which is understood by
Nokia.
Voice over IP (VoIP) will soon be a major service for residential users. The users will be able
to call other users via their home ADSL without paying extra in addition to the monthly
broadband payment. Even the other the person-to-person communication services will be
important. Synchronisation of office calendars and the familys calendars could be
established. The car networks and the communication between car-to-car and the traffic

53

environment will increase and improve traffic safety. Telematics (traffic information system)
will emerge. Health care and security will become an important service.
The number of home networks will increase and an important issue in the home is their
connectivity to the Internet with broadband connections, as well the privacy and security of
home networks. The connection could be terminated to some smart device - e.g. a set-top
box, iTV or gateway - that would be connected to the home security and home ventilation
control systems, and personal data. A lot of technologies already exist and give the
possibility of creating new services, but other factors prevent their expansion (pricing,
regulations, etc). The SIP-based applications could offer potential new services for
residential users. Approaches like Napster, Kaza and other democratic services could also
become important home-related services, although the operators seem to have strong
resistance to changes in their business models.
It is likely that the E2E connectivity of IP devices will create a similar boost for new
services, as when SMS emerged. Old ideas with SMS may be also valuable in this new
situation. M2M will be an important source of data traffic in the future. Many automatic
applications will create traffic and they will be connected either though a wired or a wireless
link to the Internet. M2M will be important within the 2012 timeframe. It is expensive to
have people monitoring devices, so it will naturally evolve towards M2M. For peer-to-peer
M2M communication, the IPv6 is an important enabler.
There will clearly be more third parties that will do similar things to the present Telco's, like
content and service provision. Both ways will co-exist and new brokers will appear, so the
operators have big opportunities but also big challenges ahead. One model is that the
transport providers will offer the connectivity and the third parties and operators will provide
the services. Open interfaces between operator networks are important to have, but not to
open operator networks to third parties.
The charging model will depend on the application that is used. Transaction-based charging,
the amount of transmitted data, or monthly payment may be used, or combinations of these.
It should be pointed out that mobile payment is clearly safer than Internet payments and if it
is made easy (e.g. part of the phone bill), users are likely to use mobile payment methods.
The methods for charging will emerge and new possibilities for network payments, like
micro payment, will appear.
Although the importance of DRM is realised, there will be difficulties in introducing the use
of DRM. It is unclear how DRM should be located in the networked infrastructure. The
business model is unclear at present: who wants to pay for DRM. The role of TEOSTO in
Finland is unclear. SPAM filters are ok, but DRM will create problems: no motivation for
strong DRM protection. The rule of TEOSTO prevents the use of proxy servers to distribute
the content to a larger audience in the net.

54

Protection of privacy and security is important, as is security on different protocol levels.

Authentication should take place from person to person. Now it is person to content. End-toend security is not enough, mutual authentication is needed. Identification with the network
is not enough. Identification of the persons you are communicating with is essential, as well
as the identification of the terminal being used. The level of trust and certification, including
third parties, is important for ex. biometric id. The use of third-party identification is not
specified anywhere at the moment. Clearly better and easier ways for user identification are
needed, especially in the mobile domain - e.g. even the simple username, password typing for
authentication is not a nice thing to do with mobile terminals. Biometric identification has
been studied and established in some cases, but what is really needed is to integrate that with
existing telecommunication systems so that it can be used in mCommerce.
At present, operators use ISDN User Part (ISUP) signalling for call establishment and control
between operators. Work has been started to replace ISPU with SIP, but, naturally, both
systems need to co-exist for some time. Using SIP for this purpose seems to be challenging;
the estimation is that roughly 30 different SIP-related specifications are needed. The scalable
service platform can create monopolies too operator-centric. The direction should be to the
open world.
Use of a service should be easy; the user should not see what networks he/she is using. The
profiles and context awareness are important. Agents are an old fashion, but they will have
some role in the future. The one log-in to a network, without the need to log-in again while
connecting to a new network is essential for the user. But how will the user get into the
services? It is important that users are able to find services and have them in a way that
corresponds to their situation. If the services are scalable and operate in many networks, the
user interfaces must resemble each other, no matter where you are using them from. It is
likely that push-type service discovery will be used, because of the low usability of terminals.
The seamless roaming between network technologies and private and public networks could
be technically realised but the major challenge probably lies in the business models - i.e. is
there will to accomplish this. As yet, there is no common method for seamless handover
between 3G and WLAN, even inside the same operator network. 3GPP is working on
allowing the same device to connect through 3G and WLAN by interoperable authentication
and charging mechanisms, but they are not very active in providing session mobility between
the two technologies.
Solutions that are widely used today were developed ten years ago. In that sense, now is the
right time to study and develop ambient intelligence techniques. The importance of personal
area and groups will grow and the communication between groups will increase. Body
networks could be more suitable for BT than for WLAN. New emerging technologies are
needed for body area networks. The ad hoc networks need a method to be established in a
controlled way so that a group of people can communicate safely. Security issues are
important there.

55

One device for all will be the evolution of the mobile phone. When people want IP over
Mobile, one important interoperability factor is JAVA, which is used widely both in the
Internet and the mobile domain. The JAVA interoperability does not yet work properly, even
with the same terminal type and different OS SW versions. A lot of work has been done and
is still needed to fit TCP into the mobile environment. The mobile terminal will approach the
PC, but it must be remembered that mobile terminals will never be as fast as PCs and the
applications must be tailored. The power consumption of future terminals needs to be solved
as well. New operating systems for mobiles will emerge in the future. One OS for terminals
in 2012 does not seem likely; instead, the situation will be like today, with many mobile OSs.
Frequencies up to 5Ghz are in use today. The speed is going forwards to 100Mb; the question
is how many bits/hz can be transmitted in future. 2Mb is the theoretical limit of UMTS;
WLAN can have a higher speed. Adaptation to variation of bandwidth and its changes is
important. The SDR technology will be used in all radios. Very-short-range radios will be
needed in future. The UWB has the range of WLAN. No explosion of bandwidth in the radio
networks, but it can be possible in the core network. The wires will also be important in the
future.
Not only technologies but also regulations and public interest should be taken into account
when defining this roadmap. An example is in Sweden with the "fiber-to-home" concept,
where the society is involved in building and financing the network infrastructure. You
should also be prepared for and adapt to the cases where "something" will pop up from some
side path. Like, for instance, VoIP. The future will show whether this will be applicationdriven or technology-driven progress.
In the telecommunication business, regulation has a higher impact on the business than is
generally imagined. The driver of the regulation authorities is competition. The regulator
thinks that competition forces actors to be more effective and innovative. The current trend
on the regulator's side is the adoption of an Internet-like architecture in the
telecommunication business. The main implication of this trend is the separation of data
transfer and service provision.
In the long term, the separation of network-operating and service-operating will highly
influence business. The main consequence will be the increased pressure for convergence.
Virtual operators / service operators have a possibility to provide multi-channel services
when they integrate data and GSM services from different network operators. The business
of virtual operators is based on the fact that the regulator forces network operators to sell
network capacity to all actors in reasonable conditions.
In the GSM environment business models have been quite stable for some time. It is likely
that the business model in person-to-person messaging (voice, sms, mms) will remain stable.
There is little room for new business models and new actors. IP-E2E operators will not have
a big role in person-to-person communication. However, the situation is different in the

56

corporate solutions. Actors providing data connections for businesses are also starting to
provide GSM connections to the companies (can act as a virtual operator). Therefore, these
actors are able to provide all communication services for companies - e.g. data services,
GSM communication and VoIP calls. This phenomenon is due to the regulators efforts to
separate network operator and service operator business. In this kind of business there will be
a large variety of different value chains and competing business models available.
Continuous change will be the state of affairs in this business.
Invoicing is the major thing in mCommerce. The party collecting payments from the user
will have a strong position in the value chain. There seem to be three major alternatives for
an electronic payment service provider: mobile operators providing payment services for
their clients, credit card companies (like VISA) and electronic money. In the mobile
payments the fight will be between the mobile operators and the credit card companies. One
of the most important factors in this fight is the cost of a single payment transaction. The
actor who is able to provide a more effective (and low-cost) invoicing process is likely to be
successful. There are two main factors in lowering the price of the payments: The amount of
paper handling in the invoicing process and the recording and storing of payment
transactions data.
The challenges in mobile applications and services (especially applications, which need
many actors providing content or service) lie mostly in business logic in the value chain
rather than in the technology. System integration is a really challenging task when there are
many actors in the value chain. There is a need for business system that makes the transfer of
money and bits synchronized in a way that is generally accepted. Cultural evolution is
needed in addition to many small developments in various technologies
New business models in the ALL-IP world will be increasingly complex. Brokers making the
business models look simpler for the end user have a certain time frame in which to do
business. As business models stabilize, the brokers business possibilities will be diminished.
The "distance" between service provider and service consumer in value chains will be shorter
in the future as it becomes easies and easier for new actors to start providing services in the
network. In the long term, even end users may become service providers, although this
development is not realistic for the near future.
Major issues in the future development of the business environment of network-based
services are: shorter distance between service producer and consumer, service discovery and
payment solutions. As value chains in network-based services will be shorter due to All-IP, a
direct link between the producer and the consumer will be established. This development will
have a great impact on business. Search engines that tackle the service discovery problem are
a permanent phenomenon in the Internet. The importance of these super-hubs will be even
higher in the future due to the increased amount of data in the Internet. These super-hubs are
global players like Google, Yahoo, etc.

57

Appendix C Summary of WWRF Book of Vision

WWRF has published its vision in Book of Visions 2000 and 2001. The next version, Book
of Visions 2003 [5], will be published by IEEE in the spring of 2004. The Book of Vision is
well-known and established source of future research topics all around the world.
The Book of Vision is a gathered work of WWRF working groups4 divided into categories
focusing on: Human Perspective, Service Architectures, Cooperative & Ad-Hoc Networks,
New Radio Interfaces, Relay Systems & Smart Antennae, Short-range Radio Communication
Systems and Reconfigurability. In addition, there are three special interest groups: Spectrum
Topics, Security Topics and Self-Organization in Wireless World Systems.

Technical categories
The following categorisation is used to summarize the Book of Visions 2001 - i.e. Human
Perspective of the Wireless World, Service Architectures for the Wireless World, Cooperative Networks and Spectrum, new air interfaces and ad hoc networking.
Human Perspective of the Wireless World
Communications in the Wireless World will meet (and perhaps even exceed) user
expectations in terms of simplicity and functionality.
Our environment should be constantly tailored and personalised to our likes, habits and
situation. Users are in control. We will use the services and devices surrounding us with
interfaces traditional to humans, like voice and gestures. We will be helped by augmented
reality, which will provide our daily life and physical view with useful information.
Applications should work with all kinds of people - the elderly and the disabled - and also
take cultural differences into account.
Service Architectures for the Wireless World
Service adaptation and personalisation are the key issues. The user can be provided with
individualized services for his actual demands based on an evaluation of profiles that
describe user preferences, service capabilities and sensing information about its actual
environment (context). For gathering the user information, self-learning capabilities could be
used.

The number of working/special interest groups is based on the situation in 2003.

58

Personalisation can be carried out at present with techniques like VHE, PAM, CC/PP,
UaProf, MPEG, XML, agents, etc., but for the future Wireless World the consensus on
profile format, standards and security, and profile learning functionality would be beneficial.
The first context aware applications already exist today and use location information in a
mobile map application.
For adaptation, there is currently no common model that would allow applications to adapt
dynamically to new situations (location, time, user needs, network, and terminal capabilities).
It is also challenging to formulate a set of rules corresponding to the insufficient, inaccurate
and sometimes contradictory information on the user. Agents may search for information on
behalf of a user
Open interfaces to make networks accessible to third-party service providers such as Parlay,
OSA, JAIN. Novel business models and services will emerge for converged
telecommunication systems based on ubiquitous wireless services. For the software
development process, the standardisation is moving towards open APIs, on top of which
almost anybody could create his or her own applications. Instant messaging implemented by
an SIP-type of protocol may replace the SMS-type of communication.

Co-operative Networks
In converged access everybody should have seamless access to all services, independent of
their location and terminal type. Co-operation between different network technologies aims
for seamless delivery of a range of services and applications with an appropriate delivery
mode (unicast, multicast, broadcast), with agreed (pre-determined) Quality (QoS), via
appropriate air-interface technology in order to achieve always best connected and to
achieve a balance between cost/quality/spectral efficiency. The seamless roaming of services
and terminals will utilise general authentication, charging and personalisation methods
supported by end-to-end security. IPv6 will play a major role and provide a more sound
technical foundation to security, mobility, QoS, etc., than IPv4.
Intertechnology mobility is optimised well (e.g. in cellular networks), but does not work
across different access networks. SIP provides personal mobility by locating one or more IP
addresses whose use can receive multimedia stream with a location-independent addressspecific domain (e.g. changing a device without notifying the caller). This does not work for
user/terminal mobility between network domains during the calls. The Mobile IPv6 (MIPv6)
tackles this problem but it is not designed for real-time services. Micro-mobility solutions
improve the situation for handover-related packet losses and delays.
QoS is typically based on intserv, diffserv or a hybrid of them. The end-to-end QoS support
is still challenging to reach since each network only deploys their unique network-related
QoS mechanism. QoS mapping may be beneficial and it will be necessary to expand it to all

59

system layers. Even more challenging is the maintainance of QoS with mobility. New
transport-level protocols are needed (not plain TCP/IP) to support QoS.
Spectrum, new air interfaces and ad hoc networking
Intelligent devices will surround us. Sensors and actuators embedded in appliances and/or
carried by living beings will interact between themselves as well as their physical
environment. In addition, the increase in the number of mobile users and amount of data that
is delivered over the air channel will require more efficient use of the radio spectrum.
Frequency band is a limited resource, thus the usage of frequencies and bits/Hz/sec/km2
needs to be improved. The target for beyond 3G system bandwidth should be
100Mbps/1Gbps. Radio link performance can be greatly increased by MIMO, space time
coding, multi-user detection, multi-hop links, relaying, new air interfaces like ultra wideband
(UWB) and smart antenna techniques. Smart antennae (antenna arrays) are also integrated
with mobile phones. Refined Multiple Access Techniques (MAC) would allow more
simultaneous users to be allocated to a certain communication channel. Information
compression techniques are important to develop in order to save bandwidth.
The spectrum is usually reserved to respond to peak hour demands; dynamic allocation of
spectrum is more efficient. Frequency Sharing Rules (FSR) allow different radio standards to
co-exist in the same spectrum.
One of the main goals is to achieve Software Defined Radio (SDR) terminals and base
stations that can change their radio technology using only one radio hardware, while the
adaptation is done with software (downloadable software).

60

Book of Vision reference model

Users, application developers, service and content providers, network operators and
manufacturers can efficiently and flexibly create new services and business models based on
the component-based architecture of the wireless world.

Figure 13 Multi-sphere reference model

1. Level 1: The PAN, which consists of items close to our bodies, wearables, or items
contained in clothes
2. Level 2: The Immediate Environment of devices nearby, such as TV sets and
household electronics that offer us personalised and adaptive services
3. Level 3: Instant Partners: richer communication with people around us and
communication with more complex systems, like cars.
4. Level 4: Radio Accesses: ubiquitous coverage of a wide area system - e.g. directly
from PAN or via instant partners, new infrastructures like hotspots or dedicated road
technologies.
5. Level 5: Interconnectivity to maintain universal wireless interconnectivity. Need for
a radio convergence layer together with evolved IP transport and networking layers.
6. Level 6: Cyberworld, where we present ourselves as in reality, have access to our
semantic agents, knowledge bases, communities, services and transactions.

61

Book of Vision: Trends

WWRF has identified the following major trends in future telecommunication:
-

Advance of the Internet: the Internet will become a mass medium and IP
the leading network protocol.

Advance of mobile communication: communication via mobile radio

networks is increasing enormously.

Bandwidth evolution: the available bandwidth is exploding and the prices

for bandwidth will decrease dramatically.

Convergence of digital industries: the converging digital industry will

bring together parts of the consumer electronics, communication,
information technology, media and entertainment industries.

Advance of e-commerce: e-commerce will change and amend business

processes tremendously.

Deregulation and globalization: the I&C markets are moving quickly.

Competition and differentiation are being driven by deregulation and
globalization.

Services and applications are key: the end user is only interested in
services and applications; the underlying technology is not relevant.

Reduced cost/bit

Book of Vision: Summary table

The Book of Vision 2001 was one of the first large-scale roadmaps that cleared the way
towards the Wireless World in the advent of the mobile way of life. It gives research
suggestions starting from user needs, a reference model of the wireless world, and gathers
important enablers that need to be developed and studied. Even though it was written some
time ago, it is valid in most parts since its timeframe and way of writing are not tightly bound
to certain technologies.

62

Table 3 Summary of WWRF Book of Vision 2001. The timeframe of the Book of Vision 2001
was towards and beyond 2010 .
Vision

Scenarios &
user needs

Services

Terminals

Network

Content

Security

Other
Factors

Our environment consists of intelligent devices and sensors, constantly tailored and
personalised to our likes, habits and situation. We communicate with our
environment using voice and gestures. We are helped by augmented reality, virtual
reality and avatars.
Services are adapted to users by profiles and self-learning
Converged networks provide always-on, always best connected, guaranteed end-toend QoS and security.
Networks-in-networks are like nested spheres inside one another, starting from
BAN, PAN, etc.
Services need to be easy to use
The user is the key to understand what
is needed
All kinds of people (young, old,
disabled) should be able to use the
Body Area Networks (BAN): wearable
services
electronics embedded in clothing or
implanted
Videoconference, telepresence, VoIP Services are context aware (location,
situation ...)
Services are personalised and selflearning
Open interfaces to services and
networks for third parties;
Profiling is used (learning profiles),
OSA/Parlay, JAIN
common profile format.
PAM, XML, SOAP, UDDI, WSDL,
SIP is a major service enabler
HAVi, UPnP, Jini, RDF, OPES, CDI,
Agent technology is used
CORBA, JAVA
Service discovery for all services
All senses communicate without
Terminals can "sense" the environment
terminals
HMD (head-mounted displays)
Multimode (simultaneous and SDR
Wearables
radio accesses), multimodal (voice,
Terminal profiling CC/PP, UaProf
gestures, haptic-feedback),
Terminals have authentication method
multihoming (many IP addresses)
terminals
Intelligence in terminals, smart
antennae
Cellular networks converged with
Mobile IPv6 + micromobility
local and short-range networks,
New transport protocols emerge
UMTS, WLAN, BT, UWB, DVB,
New efficient technologies to improve
xDSL
spectral efficiency (MIMO, new 4G air
100Mbps / 1 Gbps
interfaces, UWB, OFDM, diversity
PAN, BAN
techniques, smart antennae, beam
forming, MAC solutions, multicarrier)
End-to-end QoS guaranteed, DiffServe
in IP
Frequency sharing and co-farming
IPv6 core protocol
Wireless routers
Ad hoc networks
Sensor networks interact with users
and other devices
Home networks and VHE
MPEG-7
CDI
New efficient information coding
techniques
From individual firewalls and VPN's General authentication method, AAA
to security embedded to all systems in
servers
a heterogeneous environment
Privacy of user information
Novel business models will emerge
Price for bandwidth will decrease dramatically
Mobile communication will increase enormously
Different frequency bands worldwide

63

Appendix D Summary of CELTIC Purple Book

The Purple Book (September 2003) version is built upon version 1, which was released in
April 2003. The first part of Purple Book describes the CELTIC initiative, strategic
challenges for telecommunication in Europe, other R&D forums and CELTIC budget. The
technical part of Purple Book contains the following categories: service and applications,
management of services and networks, multimedia, customer premises equipment / networks
and terminals, broadband access networks, mobile and wireless networks, broadband
transport networks, components and security. The timeframe is towards 2010, which is the
endpoint of the CELTIC programme.

Technical categories
In the following, the Purple Book is summarized under four categories: services and
applications; networks, terminals and multimedia; security; and business models.
Services and Applications
The key issues are personalisation of the services and contents according to the users
preferences, the context or ambient awareness (including time, location, situation, etc.) in
order to catch the usage environment and adapt the contents and services based on the device
and network capabilities. Even if these topics have been researched in several recent projects,
there is still no common understanding of the concepts and methods. Person-to-Person
multimedia communication in general will be one of the main service areas.
The user applications/services will adapt to the specific user profile in different
circumstances (e.g. be silent, disconnect on low battery) and network conditions (e.g.
available positioning services, available presence and context services, available
billing/charging mechanisms, available local content).
The scalable service platform will provide service management and charging, and inter-work
with other domains. It is also open for third-party service providers to import their own
services. Service platforms have to support several business models. The application server
will be based on open platforms and open APIs for the creation, provisioning and delivery of
advanced next-generation services. A common IP charging (not proprietary) solution is
needed. IP-based Multimedia Services (IMS) will be the means to handle services using the
packet switched domain. The JAVA and OMA forums will provide solutions that can be
used in many environments. A short development cycle is more and more crucial for service
applications - e.g. with new tools, open platforms and toolkits for developing new services.

64

It will be possible to offer and charge for services with different QoS. Therefore, user
applications need to be more intelligent - e.g. capable of asking the charging rates from the
network.
User needs concerning services should be identified. Significant improvement in the user
experience and usability of services and applications is required.
The advent of home connectivity and home networking is emerging. In residential areas, the
important services are communications (e.g. wideband Internet access, videoconferencing),
entertainment (e.g. VoD, games), digital home management (e.g. security) and home
networking. Storage functionality is integrated with home equipment - e.g. to a gateway.
Terminals and user premises equipment should be developed to enable good usability of
services, as in the mobile domain.
Some of the current services are voicemail, unified messaging, voice portal, voice browsing,
audio mining, multimedia conferencing, call centre, application server, enterprise resource
planning (ERP), customer relationship management (CRM), hosted web, storage, computing,
IP service switch, teleworking.
Networks, terminals, multimedia
It is expected that the future of the terminal equipment environment will consist of
distributed components that interact via self-organising home/enterprise/provider networks to
offer the users an integrated experience of information retrieval, audio-visual entertainment
and multimedia communication. Networks become more automated and possess selfawareness with the ability to self-configure and recover. The new ways of communicating
between people in multimedia networks will be built on the three cornerstones of presence,
messaging and mobility.
To accomplish the converged networks vision, the roaming between operators and network
technologies, and between public and private networks has to be accomplished. The mobility
should be seamless between the terminal, the user, and the session. Networks will be
enriched with features such as presence management, dynamic call management, advanced
unified messaging services and multi-modal service management interfaces. The connection
to the Internet would be always-on and be based on an all-IP packet-based multi-service
networking environment. Privacy issues related to roaming need to be solved - e.g., sharing
of identity/profile information, and a common authentication method is needed. The data
storage and computing will be increasingly embedded in the network infrastructure - e.g.
because of the personal information storage or intelligent environment.
Ad hoc networks will be used in temporary situations - e.g. in a conference to build up an
autoconfigurative network and as an extension to access network coverage. Their security
and authentication is a challenging issue to be solved.

65

The mobile phone can be seen as a "hub" that enables Internet connectivity for other user
devices (PAN). Whenever the persons move, at home, in their car or in public places, the
associated personal network bubbles will move with them. An overall network
management is needed for the heterogeneous network environment. In addition, the networks
will possess self-awareness, plug-and-play device installation, self-configuration, and repair
and recovery. In customer premises the home networks can provide connectivity between
home appliances.
The broadband infrastructure should allow for an easy migration to 100 Mbps per user by
2008-2010. In optical high-speed networks (C)WDM, 80Gb/s can be expected in 2008 and
development of single-rack Terabit IP/MPLS routers with 40Gb/s line cards in a few years.
Enhanced xDSL, WLAN and cable modem will provide broadband with the last mile
connectivity. It is also possible to use a low-cost (e.g. for Third World countries) novel
broadband delivery over Right of Ways (RoW) using the existing infrastructure of sewers,
gas pipes and drinking water pipes. This can be applied with power line data transmission or
by satellite delivery (e.g. for distant rural areas).
For the QoS level guarantees, there is a need for a method of establishing E2E QoS,
monitoring the QoS and providing the protocol support, also considering the type of radio
access. Service Level Agreements will provide a solution to arranging certain QoS between
networks domains. Scalable coding could be used in conjunction with QoS protocols.
As the amount of content increases, the importance of Digital Right Management (DRM) and
end-to-end Content Protection techniques (CP) increases.
Bit rate efficiency can be increased by advanced transmitter / receiver technology - e.g.
MIMO, space time coding, (SDR) Software Defined Radio and diversity methods in general.
Important radio technologies to be considered are OFDM, DS or FH CDMA, MC-CDMA,
SDMA enhanced 3G, UWB, ZigBee and HSDPA (around 10 Mbps) extension of 3G. The
link adaptation can provide the best modulation and coding scheme corresponding to the
situation. In the upper level to PHY, the advanced MAC solutions - e.g. MAC schemes
changed in-flight - may provide improved efficiency for medium access. The topic "Crosslayer-Design", already notified in 3GPP, is a promising method for optimising data
transmission at the MAC/PHY level. In ad hoc networking the bandwidth usage efficiency
should be improved in by, e.g., optimisation of the physical and MAC layer co-operation for
this purpose. For the efficient delivery of content at the network level, the multicast
technique is important. New information compression techniques after MPEG-4 (H.264 or
JVT) are needed to save the bandwidth.
The terminals may include new UI for security, privacy and DRM enforcements (smart card
reader, biometric sensors). Novel UI methods with terminals may include tactile feedback,

66

eye-control, speech recognition, audio environment awareness, tele-presence, control using

physiological signals and affective computing.
THE PRINCIPLES OF ALWAYS BEST CONNECTED (ABC)

Seamless (and fast) session roaming between access networks:

Seamless session roaming between different terminals

Multiple session management through different radio interfaces

Continuous quality of service and fallback solutions

Unified AAA and security

Heterogeneous network engineering

SECURITY
In addition to user-initiated virus protection, the operators and telecommunications providers
will have to develop mechanisms to prevent and mitigate attacks on their customers.
Therefore, the inbound security should be taken into account for all system levels, products
and technologies. Content filtering will be extended from virus detection and SPAM filtering
to DRM filtering in order to ensure that the infrastructure is not intentionally used to violate
authors' rights. When the user must be identified (actually in many usage cases the
anonymity of the user must be assured!), the global identity management could be done by
solutions based on Microsoft Passport or Liberty Alliance Project types of approaches.
Common authentication architecture for security in wireless access (e.g. WLAN and its interworking with existing 3G or 2.5G) is needed. Certification of trust may be done with thirdparty certification, such as Common Criteria. Advanced cryptography algorithms will appear.
User privacy protection is important. End-to-end security management is needed in all-IP
connectivity.
Smart cards could be used for user identification. Integration with SIM card or RFID type of
functionality is uncertain. Memory should be increased to use smart cards as a data storage
and application container. XML-based technologies are becoming prevalent in today's
information systems and should be studied in E2E security solutions.

67

Business Models
In this arena it is expected that the traditional operator-led business models might be
complemented and co-exist with new kinds of business models in the near future. It is
expected that solutions for Service Brokering - i.e. for adding value by managing user
identity, profiling and billing - and for granting access to services in a homogeneous way will
emerge. At the same time, normal end users can become service and content providers; enduser groups can establish communities for sharing information and content.
Some business models for traditional telco:

Unbundled (wholesale) network connectivity provider

Managed network connectivity provider (quality guaranteed and monitored by
connectivity provider)
Service aggregator, where third parties offer the services but use the charging and
customer management infrastructure of the service aggregator

Figure 14 General Context of services and applications (CELTIC)

A service platform consists of several service components integrated into a software
integration layer and open to third parties - such as service/connection providers - to the users
(via a portal) and to the operational process (via OSS/BSS integration interfaces).

68

Purple Book Vision

Purple book identifies some of the targets and visions for socially responsible societies,
including broadband connectivity to public administrations and schools, interactive public
services, online health services and eGovernment.

10 years from now I will have a personal network around me wherever I go with
access to all my services (providers) and information.

All kind of devices in my home (residential) network can be safely and securely
controlled by me anytime anywhere and supported by my service providers when I
authorise it.

The cost of the access network will be marginal (equivalent of 30 /month) and still
provide my high-bandwidth access in the order of 10-100Mbps

Operators can roll out multiple services quickly and affordable as each roll-out is a
reuse of an existing back office process for supporting services and flexible
core/metro/access networks.

Purple Book Trends

The new information society scenario is leading to a situation where the home is
increasingly becoming a place of work.

It is expected that residential users will, together with business, be the main sources
of revenue for operators and manufacturers.

Separation between service delivery and connectivity. Telco's providing transport

and third parties providing services are becoming widespread

The car will be a extension of the home

While there used to be one distinct set of applications per network infrastructure,
most of the applications will now be deployable on many network infrastructures.

Networks will start to support quality of service (QoS) (one-to-one, multipoint,

content distribution), security, billing, service awareness, etc. The network can also
provide capabilities like location or presence.

Convergence is expected between the gaming and the audio-visual industries, on the
level of end-user equipment (game consoles with video recording capabilities).
A real integration of communication, A/V and gaming applications will first emerge
in the area of on-line gaming. New modes of multimedia person-to-person
communication will emerge.
Industry is moving towards using open software platforms that enable widespread
applications development, Java and Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) being the key
solutions.
A more symmetrical bandwidth than todays ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber
Line) or cable modem is needed to deliver symmetrical data services like video

69

conferencing, peer-to-peer services, SOHO (Small Office Home Office) services,

home working.

The bandwidth is expected to grow from the 1 Mbit/s offered today via ADSL
(Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) or Cable modem to 10 -100 Mbit/s in the next
decade.

WLAN (Wireless Local Area Network) appears to be an attractive access technology

for hot spots.

Satellite access systems envisage broadband deployment in areas where wired firstmile solutions fail to be cost effective.

One of the main "revolutions" in person-to-person communication will be the longawaited addition of video to the standard voice stream with the development of video
telephony.

MPEG-4 Advanced Video Coding, also named H.264 or JVT (Joint Video Team
merging MPEG and ITU-T groups), is expected to become the prosperous successor
of MPEG-2.

Location-Based Services (LBS) are expected to provide new revenue for all the
actors in the value chain

In the 2004-2008 timeframe, 3G, Wireless LAN and Bluetooth will be important
wireless technologies to build applications on.

Bandwidth demand will increase due to multimedia services

A huge potential of less progressive and/or elderly people that are less familiar with
multimedia communications and multi-modal functions.

Service brokering business models are likely to appear for adding value by managing
user identity, profiling, billing and granting access to services

The post-PC era is emerging, when not only the PC is connected to the Internet but
also game consoles, Internet enabler TVs, Internet smart handheld devices, web
terminals, PC tablets...

Purple Book summary table

Purple Book gives a rather up-to-date description of those topics that are important targets for
R&D in telecommunication systems towards 2010. It emphasizes the need to test
applications, services, network components and software in advance to verify their
functionality before bringing them to market. Technically, the view is on the networks - i.e.
the wireless, mobile, broadband and optical categories. On several occasions the services at
home over the fixed broadband rather than the home control networks were emphasized as
important fields for business. And the car was seen as an extension of the home.
There are many ICT trends recorded in Purple Book, which is an important part of the book
since there is are no references as to which year certain technology will/would emerge. There
are also brief descriptions of some changes to and opportunities for business models for
converged networks.

70

Table 4 Summary of CELTIC Purple Book 2003. The timeframe is mainly towards 2010.
Vision

Scenarios &
user needs

Services

Terminals

Network

Content
Security

Other
Factors

The user applications adapt to the user context using profiles and network services (presence,
positioning, billing, local services, QoS) that allow rich communication
Services in residential areas are used widely, access to the Internet with fixed and wireless
broadband, user control of home appliances and their updates from service providers
Networks provide all-IP packet-based, always-on access, inter-intra network roaming, network
access to my "PAN bubble" - e.g. via mobile phone - with 10-100 Mbps at a cost of 30 per
month
Security is integrated at all system levels, common authentication and security schemes are used,
virus and DRM protection is embedded in telecommunication infrastructure
Significant improvement on user
Normal end users become content and service
experience and service usability is
providers
needed
The terminals and applications must be
more intelligent to improve usability
VoD, messaging, games,
IMS major service handler
videoconferencing, digital home
Software application cycle short
management
Open API's and platforms for third party
Rich communication (presence,
QoS value-added services
positioning)
JAVA and OMA forum solutions
Context aware services, e.g. closing
Service platforms connected to OSS
phone in meeting
Agents (still challenging)
Person-to-person multimedia services
XML prevalent
SIP key enabler
Multiaccess terminals (2G, 3G, WLAN, Support sensing and controlling of environment
Bluetooth...), multiple sessions managed Support novel Uis, voice, gesture, tactile
through many radio interfaces
feedback, eye control
Multimodality terminals
Data storage functionality in home equipment
and network infrastructure
Support positioning (GPS, Galileo, EOTD, using also MIMO and smart
New UI for security and authentication (smart
antenna positioning)
card, biometric sensors)
100 Mbps per user
E2E QoS protocols, Qos guaranteed, SLA, QoS
monitoring
PAN networks with outer connectivity
Ad hoc networks
Network roaming (inter-intra
technology, operators, public-private)
E2E network management, MPLS, GMPLS
Network self-configurability, self Improved technologies: OFDM,DS/FH CDMA,
repairing
MC-CDMA multicarrier, UWB, ZigBee,
HSPDA, MIMO, SDR, advanced MAC, crossPositioning support
layer design, link adaptation
Multicast
(C)WDM, HFC-based optical networks Optical core 80Gbit/s 2008
Satellite networks
DRM and Content Protection (CP)
New information compression techniques after
MPEG-4 (H.264) in conjunction with QoS
H.323, MGCP, SIP proxy
adapted delivery
Common authentication method
VPN
Advanced cryptography methods

Third-party certification
SPAM, DRM network filtering
E2E security management, XML could be used
PKI most used
Smart cards with larger memory and
applications
Heterogeneous networks need a controlling system to function in the best way
Service brokering business models will emerge

71

Appendix E Summary of ITEA Roadmap

ITEA published the first version of the technology roadmap on software intensive systems in
March 2001. The second edition has been under preparation since the beginning of 2004. The
second version (unpublished edition draft January 2004) has been used to complete the first
edition.
The ITEA roadmap has been structured according to broad technology categories. These
categories are: Content, Infrastructure & basic services, Human system interaction and
Engineering. The first three categories are summarized in following sections.
The timeframes of the ITEA roadmap are three-fold. Short-term covers the years 2004 2006, medium-term 2007 - 2009 and long-term 2010 and beyond.

Figure 15: ITEA Roadmap "Towards Convergence"

Different application domains have been identified as important fields in which the
technology will be deployed. These identified application domains are:

Home - All kinds of activities that may be required by people in their private
environment in order to achieve exchange of information inside and outside their
home through and between all possible appliances.

Nomadic - All kinds of activities that may be required by mobile people outside their
home or working place to achieve exchange of information and, possibly, perform
some tasks. It also includes any means of moving from one place to another.

72

Cyber enterprise - All kinds of activities that may be required by a cluster of people
who communicate with one another to achieve a common (technical or economic)
goal or perform a task, regardless of their organisational or geographical location.

Intermediation services & infrastructures - All kinds of activities that may be

required to help the different actors accessing a network in designing, implementing,
selling, maintaining and billing services

Services and software creation - All kinds of activities that may be required to help
the different technical people engaged in designing, implementing, verifying,
maintaining and modifying software-intensive products and/or systems and/or
services

Technical categories of ITEA Technology Roadmap on softwareintensive systems

The technologies in the ITEA roadmap were classified under following 4 categories:

Content - deals with signal, data, information, document and knowledge from
capture to complete processing. Three technology categories

Infrastructure and basic services - deals with transport mechanisms and protocols,
as well as with the management of the networks (including security). It is
articulated into four technology categories

Human system interface - deals with the interaction between the human and the
appliances and systems that support the services. It is composed of only one
technology category

Engineering - deals with the product creation process of end-to-end services. It is

articulated into three technology categories.

Content
The content technology category can be considered a means for the acquisition, processing,
representation, sharing and management of content. The content can also be considered on
different levels of abstraction: signal, data, information and knowledge.
The main trend in te content category is digitalisation. The business and industrial worlds are
handled in digital format, the entertainment business moves from analogue to digital format,
broadcasting transactions move from analogue to digital, and consumers self-created content
increasingly in digital format. Another important trend is the appearance of sensors-based

73

applications in the everyday environment. Body-wearable and environmental sensors provide

new possibilities for new services.
There are three main application domains in content processing: content acquisition and
processing, data and content management, and content representation. The main
technological challenges in these domains are: content acquisition, transformation and
modification of content, managing and retrieving content while ensuring data integrity is
dispersed, and heterogeneous environment and representing and structuring data whilst at the
same time making the most appropriate and efficient use of resources
The emergent content processing intensive services identified in the ITEA roadmap are, for
example: "Electronic Multimedia magazine"; location-dependent information services where
a location accuracy of 10 m is cheaper than GPS; "key finder" applications utilizing
positioning and location with a few cm accuracy; "Unified messaging" providing access to
any message, anytime, anywhere from any device; and "digital libraries" providing efficient
searching of information, as well as agents under the users command searching various
kinds of information (eBusiness, services).
The increasing amount of data and information in digital format creates opportunities for new
applications and services, especially when this is combined with the progress in network
technology. Context-awareness and meta-data will be key to coping with the challenge of
guiding the user through the massive amount of content (content without context or metadata will be of no use). Security is a major challenge. the key challenge in security will be
usability and the end user's acceptance of the technology.

Infrastructrure and basic services

The increasing bandwidth in backbone networks and for service providers creates the
opportunity for streaming services. Wireless will be a dominant access connection in the
future. People will be covered by ubiquitous networks that will enable them to be connected
everywhere, be contactable everywhere and access information from any place.
The challenges in the ubiquitous networks concept are related to network transport and
services, resource management and security. Network transport covers technologies for
carrying digital data from one place to another, including control signals. The challenges in
network services mostly concern technologies for managing the dynamically changing
networked infrastructure for roaming users and services. Technologies for resource
management takes into account resource constraints (physical, computing, time, spatial,
Herzian), or safe sharing of resources (e.g. grid computing). The purpose of security
technologies is to provide safe access to data, user identification, etc.

74

Certain services are identified in the ITEA roadmap. Ubiquitous networking is seen as a
concept penetrating all fields of everyday life from education to the electronics business.
Example services in the roadmap report are: (Tele-) education taking advantage of
syncronization of multimedia content, multicasting/broadcasting audio and video clips over
IP networks, and video conferencing anywhere using portable computer equipment with
video conferencing facilities. This service will be increasingly used for consultation with
experts. In addition, applications are suggested for the utilisation of nomadic personal
profiles for use in ad hoc connections between devices, virtual reality, and virtual personal
networks where the computation and processing of data is distributed in an organized way in
the network. Trust will be an important factor. Trusted third-party services will be important
in the future. For example, electronic commerce can benefit from these services
Constrained resources like memory and storage, bandwidth, display size, time, power and
network resources should be managed in such a way that an appliance, device or system is
able to function in an optimal way. Terminal power management will be a critical issue.
Complex distributed architectures will use new technologies like grid computing to share
resources across the organisation. Dynamic resource management will become increasingly
important for critical systems. User trust is a key challenge for security ("used is in control").
Security will become pervasive, and handled at all stages of the software life cycle

Human System Interaction

ITEA's vision for human system interaction is simple, self-explanatory and easy-to-use
multi-modal HSIs (Human System Interaction). HSI should take the user's context into
account and, based on that, adapt the interaction to the user's needs. Interoperability and
seamlessnes are also important topics in HSIs.
There are more and more devices and services available with their own HSI. From the user's
point of view this leads to a situation where he / she must learn to use a huge number of
different ways to use the services. Therefore, uniformity and flexibility between different
HSIs is needed. Uniformity is important across all devices - look and feel as well as
behaviour. Uniformity over the underlying model supporting functional modularity as well as
uniformity across cultural borders is also important (e.g. national/international train tables).
There will be an increasing number of different points of user-system interaction in the
future. HSIs should be self-explanatory and simple to use as the user won't want to use too
much time and energy learning a new HSI approach. Taking the user's context and personal
profiles into account, providing an adaptive HSI is seen as a potential approach to tackling
HSI challenges.

75

Regarding Human System Interaction, the domains for technology development and
standardisation proposed in the ITEA roadmap are multi-modal user interaction, an adaptive
and context-aware user interface and HSI creation and usability. Multi-modality includes
technologies like speech recognition, speech to text, text to speech, gestures (to control
applications), eye movement (to control applications), multi-user interfaces, and virtual and
augmented reality. The most important technologies for adaptivity are user profiles, contextawareness (with sensors and profiles), learning user interfaces, support for multidisplay/device systems, privacy and security. Usability engineering, a platform for HSI
development, HSI usability test systems and measurement of satisfaction are important topics
in HSI creation and usability.
There are many services and applications identified in the ITEA roadmap where HSI has an
important role. These applications may become drivers for the development of advanced user
interaction technologies. For example, terminals adapting to user capabilities help users to
use services and applications; shared project spaces and virtual training rooms help teams in
different places efficiently work together on the same task. Learning applications capturing
users profiles for adapting user interfaces and advanced voice-controlled user interfaces may
become part of everyday life in the future
Software-intensive systems are becoming increasingly complex, and, at the same time,
systems have to be used by more and more people - easy-to-use Human System Interaction is
critical. In user interaction, the multilingualism, collaboration, multi-cultural and multi-user
environments need to be supported. Employment of sensors may support new options in
interaction. Centimetre-precision positioning of a user and his wearable equipment would
allow context-sensitive information to be conveyed to/from the user. A user-driven process
(as much as possible) for creating systems will increase the chance of success in building
new services, applications and products. Simple, self-explanatory and easy-to-use multimodal Human System Interaction utilising context-aware and adaptive technologies, and
providing seamless and interoperable HSIs, will be needed in future applications and
services.

ITEA Visions
The world is etting more and more digital and more and more interconnected. The future is
bringing us even more capabilities in two different, but not independent, directions related to
exchanges / interactions / communication and the corresponding (and new) services

Communication is becoming seamless: this implies convergence in the different

networking technologies as well as in the different types of appliances

The environment will become proactive: this implies that there is some
intelligence or autonomy in the digital surroundings of a person

76

ITEA Trends

Importance of software is increasing simultaneously with hardware development

(more and more computing power, memory, bandwidth, etc, at lower costs) and
ubiquitous communication.

Business models are changing rapidly. There are many stakeholders, with often
mutually conflicting interests, who are active on the market with different
understanding and goals.

Regulation, legislation, social and economic conditions and constraints are

important disciplines.

In access networks speed has been increasing as techniques allow creation of new
services

Software plays and will play a major role. SW is the heart of an increasing
number of new products and services

Interoperability of services will become increasingly important

Digitalization of all kinds of media

Convergence of digital content, services, applications, devices, etc., from the

single-service single-network paradigm towards multi-service networks

Internet Protocol (IP) will be a major issue

Wireless becoming even more important

Devices are evolving from independent self-standing devices towards integrated

devices and collection of collaborating devices

Convergence of ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and intelligent

user interface bringing us towards the Ambient Intelligence era.

Need to support interoperability; services such as bridges or gateways between

different networks are growing

Restructuring of companies into smaller, more independently operating units

increases the need for collaboration across sites and sometimes, increasingly,
across companies

Dramatic slowdown of progress in the bandwidth of backbone networks. This is

most likely due to a lack of investment in this field

Bandwidth for wireless short-distance connections will grow up to 50 Mbps in the

near future

Increasing number of services will be deployed

77

ITEA Technology Roadmap summary table

Table 5: ITEA Technology Roadmap towards 2007
Vision

Scenario
s&
user
needs

Terminal
s

Services

Network

Content

World is getting more and more digital and increasingly interconnected

Communication is becoming Seamless: this implies convergence in the different networking
techniques and appliances
The environment is becoming proactive and there is some intelligence or autonomy in the
digital surrounding of a person
Users want to use the same
Usability an important issue in all situations
apps/content/services everywhere (home,
(driving, walking, etc)
work, etc) - support for mobility needed
Increased need for collaboration between
different company sites or even between
companies
Terminal adaptation to user capabilities
Shared project spaces, virtual training room
Advanced voice-controlled user interfaces
Tele-education
IP networks
Video conferencing
Virtual personal networks
Nomadic personal profiles
Digital video broadcasting
Speech recognition: voice commands, noisy
environment in multiple domains
Text-to-speech conversion: monotonic
synthesis, natural-sounding with intonation
emerging
Gestures: monitoring, directions, (games)
Multi-user interfaces: 2d & 3D symbolic
games and simulators
Home Bandwidth ADSL ~8Mbs
Symmetric Broadband xDSL
Wireless Bandwidth (UMTS) - low
bandwidth
In-home apps Bandwidth 50Mbs
File Sharing in P2P environments
QoS for various network technologies
Location services (GPS, GSM/UMTS)

DRM
Position information (std. exchange)
Cheap location positioning with increased
precision
New or extended intelligent sensors
Efficient and standardized context exchange
(user profiles)
Context fusion - integration of context
Domain-specific meta-data standards
Protection of pre-recorded content
Off-line media interpretation algorithms
More efficient compression algorithms / bitrate reduction - H.261/H.263
Descriptive coding of context evolution in
space and time
Domain-specific behaviour prediction based
on actual and historical data

78

Virtual reality
Trusted third-party services
Electronic trading, electronic notary
Electronic multimedia magazine, internal
TV
Location-dependent information services
Unified messaging
Digital library
Profiles within closed or proprietary
environments
Context-awareness: groups, more context,
detailed presence
Basic support for multi-display/device/HSI
system
Basic privacy and security functionality
Profiles (community support and
management)
Automatic resource discovery in a local
network
Profile and network context-based service
orchestration - workflow
Intelligent power mgmt - increased
granularity
Bandwidth usage control - static
Fine-granular synchronization of interrelated
streams from different media sources SMIL
Extended name spaces - IPv6
Universal content identifiers - CRID
Sector-specific standardized descriptive
models - OWL
Rules for automatic reasoning about
information (service ontologies) - OWL
Multi-media databases - MPEG7
Search agents for multimedia
Flexible configuration of access for shared
content in collaborative env. File-oriented
Intelligent garbage collection and
management
Learning-based classification of multimedia
content

Certification of safe resources - devices

Watermarking
Authentication - single sign-on
Digital Signatures
Biometrics - fingerprint, voice
Cryptographic algorithms
Authentication - Smartcard, Javacard
Intrusion detection
Secured Communication - VPN
Broadcast encryption
Security extension for wireless
Privacy anonymity
Public Key management
Limited modelling and testing tools for
security
Secure interoperability between components
and web services
Enhanced crypto algorithms
UI adapting to users skills can help with user acceptance
Other Factors
Regulation, legislation and capital investment have a big impact on whether or when
certain services or infrastructures become available to the public
Business models are changing rapidly
Security

Table 6: ITEA Technology Roadmap towards 2012

Vision

Scenario
s&
user
needs

Services

Terminal

Network

Convergence of ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and intelligent user interface

leads us towards an era of ambient intelligence
Self-managing and self-organizing information and communication system - agent-based selfmanagement
Any software system will be more and more a set of intelligent interacting components, which
will be combined dynamically according to need
Devices are evolving from independent self-standing devices towards integrated devices and
collection of collaborating devices
System characteristics: ease of use, safety, Backward and forward compatibility of
privacy, reliability
systems

Agents under users command

Learning applications capture a users
profile
New power sources
Enhanced natural language understanding,
speaker independence
Natural sounding speech synthesis with
intonation
Gestures: interpretation, pointing
Multi-user interfaces - 3D
Dynamic and roamable user profiles
Automatic interoperability over
heterogeneous networks - towards
seamless operation
Pervasive IP deployment - IPv6
Wired home network - optical fibre - 100
Mbps
Bandwidth of wireless access networks
(e.g. UMTS) - 2MBps
Bandwidth of in-home apps. 100 Mbps
Optimized reliable multicasting streaming
over iP
Web services implemented in sensors and
actuators - e.g. SOAP
"Follow me apps" - P2P
Negotiating agents - QoS for various
network technologies

79

"Key finder" - applications

Context awareness in multi-diverse env.

Support for multi-display/device/HSI systems
- session roaming, context support
Privacy & security - Multi-diverse env. trust
aspects

Location services everywhere (including

inside buildings) - Triangulation in
GSM/UMTS
Identity management: Standardized ontologies
and construction of profiles
Automatic resource discovery in WAN
networks
Agent-based configuration of network
elements in home & enterprise
Context-based service orchestration
End-to-end service-level agreements (SLA)
Dynamic bandwidth usage control
Systems certification of safe resources

Content

Security

Other
Factors

Generic standardized exchange of

positioning information
Generic solution for sensor fusion from
different sensors
Efficient and standardized context
exchange
SW architectures of collaborative sensory
systems
Real-time media interpretation algorithms
Real-time algorithms for media integration
Symmetric compression for high-quality
media - H.264
Single sign-on supporting dynamic
configuration
Bio- authentication - fingerprint, voice,
iris, face
Tamper-proof authentication
Digital signatures

80

Generic behaviour prediction based on actual

and historical data
Domain-specific meta data standards - MXF
Larger size multimedia databases
Search agents for multimedia content
Data mining ( e.g. on ad-hoc data collections)
Task-oriented flexible configuration
Harmonized DRM (in Europe, Worldwide)

Secured communication - 1-to-n & n-to-n

Secure interoperability between components
and web services - plug&play

Appendix F Summary of mITF Flying Carpet

The Flying Carpet report visualises how future mobile communication systems are projected
to be used in social activities around 2010. The report is based on 10 visions and concepts
targeted by future mobile communications systems that serve as the foundation of studies
performed by the Mobile IT Forum. The business models and technologies needed for
realising the visions have been considered in the report.
In the following sections the mITF report is summarized under the categories: Expectations
of future mobile communication systems, and summary of the report

Expectations of future mobile communication systems by users

and industry
Based on users expectations for 4G mobile services, the future lifestyles in which the mobile
services are to be utilized, as envisioned by the users, are listed in the following section. The
future lifestyles are roughly divided into four categories:
1. Enriched and cultural life - enriched life means the ability to communicate with
friends and families anytime. Cultural life means the ability to receive information of
your choice and easily obtain the right entertainment anytime you like
2. More flexible and diversified life - Flexible and diversified life - able to work
regardless of home circumstances. An environment that enables various people to
freely participate in social activities
3. More comfortable and safer life - more comfortable and safer life means safety is
ensured anytime, anywhere. On the other hand, convenient and comfortable life
means the ability to access services on highly convenient networks in a secure
manner
4. More personal and convenient life - possible to freely select from a wide range of
services based on individual preferences in personal life. Extremely convenient life is
something where "what you want to do now can be done right away".
General user's expectations and requirements for features and services offered by 4G mobile
systems were identified as follows:
1. There are huge expectations for freedom in time, place and use of features - strong
interest was shown in convenient services that can eliminate the labour spent today,
and security that ensures people's health and safety.

81

2. Broader bandwidth does not necessarily imply more fun and convenience - it is
important to take into account users' preferences and acceptability in designing a
communication systems and services.
3. "Cost" is a decisive factor for user demand - the costs of terminals and content cast a
significant influence on their uptake.
4. Expectations for real communications with "people" - communication that can
express emotions and feelings will likely be an important application
5. Agent feature is a must the growing number of available content and services will
require automated and intelligent solutions for handling the supply.
6. 4G needs to offer something more than "faster speeds" the expectations of general
users will not be met by just greater bandwidth and faster speed
Industry's expectations for 4G mobile systems are listed below:
1. Expectations and requests for communications capabilities - there are high
expectations for transmission speeds in the order of 100 Mbps. Certainty and stability
of communication is most important in medical / disaster / transportation-related
sectors. Bandwidth dedicated for public service should be secured for public
infrastructure. Security of communications is indispensable, particularly for medical /
settlement / content services.
2. Expectations and requests for terminal features - terminal / file specifications must be
unified among carriers and manufacturers. Sophisticated features must be offered at
affordable prices. Mobile terminals need to become a media for presenting product
information attractively and effectively. an easy-to-use universal input interface is a
must
3. Expectations and requests for authentication and other peripheral techniques advanced authentication techniques must be provided at low cost
4. Expectations and requests for authentication / billing model a billing model with a
great degree of flexibility not monopolized by carriers needs to be studied.
Expectations for collective management of ID/Password by third-party
authentication bodies
5. Expectations and requests for revision of legal system - establishment of a legal
framework for personal information protection is important. Revision of legal system
is indispensable in realizing medical / administrative services leveraging IT
6. Expectations and requests on other important issues - establishment of mechanism
for rights clearance is indispensable for content delivery

82

mITF Technology Roadmap

A summary of the mITF technology roadmap is presented in the tables below. . Figure 16
presents a roadmap for transmission rate development towards 4G mobile systems.

. Figure 16: mITF roadmap for transmission rate enhancements towards 4G mobile systems

83

mITF summary tables

Table 7: mITF technology roadmap towards 2007 (2005-2006)
Vision

Scenarios

&
user needs

Services

Terminals

Network

Mobile systems are an inseparable part of peoples daily lives in various branches of life,
including. Education, Arts and Science, Business Use, Entertainment, Visual Communication,
Mobile Commerce, Work, Nursing and Health Care, Emergency Medical Treatment and
Utilization in a Disaster.
New lifestyles will be realized by 4G mobile communication systems. People will look for an
enriched and cultural, more flexible and diversified, more comfortable and safe, and more
personal and convenient life
Packet-switched networks will provide 2Mbps for uplink and 10-14Mbps downlink for
mobile users
Knowledge-sharing technologies
Mobile communications are used for emergency
medical treatment after, e.g., a traffic accident.
Network games and music/video
content downloading in mobile
Freedom of time, place and use of features
systems
Low costs
Video/picture communication between Real communication with "people" - e.g.
remote places.
feelings
Mobile systems are used for
Agent feature for handling growing number of
merchandise purchase and settlement.
services
Personal authentication technology
"Something more than Faster Speed"
allows the user to securely purchase

items through a network.

Doctors can perform a routine health
check or respond immediately based
on health data sent to the hospital
Mobile health checker
House construction management system
Medical Data provision service
Inter-operation of car navigation system
Location information service
Food management
Nursing care information service
Real-time disaster information delivery service
On-demand knowledge centre
Mobile administration services
Navigation system
Mobile game gate
Mobile ordering
CPU clock speed 10-20 GHz
Platform-free terminals: reconfigurable
application core
Multi-access terminals, automatic
selection of interface (cellular, WLAN, Implementation of ad hoc protocols,
DVB, PHS, PDC etc)
convergence with SDR
Speaker-independent voice recognition Feature to broadcast local information within
system and mail text drafting
system
Equipment control and management
Grouping feature for multicast within single
from remote places starts with RFID in
system
logistics
Terminals can receive digital broadcast DVB-S
Practical implementation of compact
and DVB-T
fuel cells
Wearables used by general audience
Wearable terminals start being used by Commercial DMFC fuel cells
general user
Glass displays developed
IPv6 spreading, networks linked with Mainstream move from circuit-switched
IPv6, autoconfiguration
network to IP and rollout of network, including
voice, makes progress
HSPDA 10 Mbps, WLAN 420 Mbps,
MBWA
Short-range communication standardisation to
make progress
Fast handover on IP networks,
HMIPv6
PAN function using UWB available, IEEE
802.15.4 implemented in remote controllers in
Adaptive service using service
homes
discovery and utilizing user-defined

84

Content

Security

Other
Factors

connection policy
Compatibility of greater number of
existing access systems, function for
receiving terrestrial digital broadcast
Standardised QoS control and AAA
assured handover between same access
system
MIPv6 standardisation and low cost
implementation to mobile phones
First sensor network products
Coordination between home networks,
information appliances
Prototype small size MIMO, MIMO is
discussed in 3GPP, in mobile
environment MIMO <20Mbps, MIMO
WLAN standardisation
Adaptive antennae in base stations
Development of baseband for SDR,
standardisation activities start
High-quality scalable voice coding
algorithms, 3D image coding
Use of information broker agent
Information compression techniques 510 times more efficient
Advanced authentication techniques
based on voice, venous and iris
authentication
AES, Elliptic curve cryptosystem
Various business models will emerge
and evolve
Revisions may be needed on
legislation (e.g. medical practitioners,
administrative laws)
Advanced, accepted and easy-to-use
authentication techniques are critical

Bandwidth: mobile 5Mbps/ stationary

environment100 Mbps
IGMP in multicast
Positioning used in WLAN
UWB products to markets, replacing infrared
comm.
Optical networks: 40Gb/s 1 carrier, 10Tbps
(WDM)
Ad Hoc ntw in certain regions using new
protocols and service discovery, multihop
Adoption of link adaptation ACM
Automatic receiving of location-dependent
information
Location detection accuracy of several cm
(outdoor), measurement time few secs.
Information delivery based on location + static
information
Standardised network load measurement
OFDM-based WLAN/NWA
Personal information stored in cellular terminals
+ IC cards
Synchronization of data in multimedia storages
between distributed systems
Single sign-on in ubiquitous networks emerging
Biometrics authentication in small devices +
PKI
IPSec and Diameter used
Public sector's role in promoting new
possibilities (e.g. mobile administrative
services)
Improved accessibility for all
Standardisation activities in area of security,
authentication and accounting in progress due to
increased eCommerce

Table 8: mITF technology roadmap towards 2012 (2010-4G)

Vision

Scenarios

&
user needs

Services

Terminals

Data and entertainment services are used ubiquitously, anytime, anywhere independent of
location and available terminals. The services are adapted to user needs.
Communication is enriched with "reality feeling" in addition to plain video and voice, e.g.
virtual meetings
Cost is decisive factor for user demand Single terminal is used for communication,
payment, keys, control of environment, data
4G must offer something more than
storage
just more speed
Users need a more comfortable,
enriched and safer life

3D virtual surround, virtual reality

Software updates are done
transparently
P2P service discovery

CPU clock ~100 GHz

Common OS for terminals

85

Automatic receiving of optimal-related

information based on location
Location detection accuracy (outdoor & indoor)
of several centimetres, measurement time less
than 1 sec
Implementation of multi-band, multi-protocol
terminals

Network

Content

Security

Other
Factors

Enhancement of autonomous selectiontype multi-interface

Practical implementations of new
techniques (e.g. UWB)
Speaker-dependent recognition of
authentication systems
Co-ordination of distrib. functions
Various adaptive power supply
schemes, reduction of operational
voltage of IC
Wearable terminals used in various
fields
Miniaturization to 10g, 10cc
3D screens using holography
Electronic paper as a display
Realisation of ubiquitous network
Plug-and-Play base stations use SDR
Service roaming among suitable
terminals
Automatic selection of an optimal
radio system
On the move 100 Mbps and 1Gbps for
stationary end user
QoS-assured handover between
different access systems,
Realisation of fast/seamless handover
on IP networks (in fast moving
environment), MIPV6+AAA
Realisation of ubiquitous network
Terminals support satellite
digital/terrestrial digital
Information collection through
collaboration of agents
Seamless roaming, handovers when
multicasting
Location tracking for fast moving
networks e.g. PAN-VAN
High-speed scalable content adaptation
Autonomous fine-grained scalable
codecs (FGS) for optimal quality for
users
Advanced mark-up languages
(successors of XML)
Emergence of compound recognition
systems
Connection to ubiquitous networks
with single sign-on
See Table 7.Table 7

86

Reconfigurable terminals adaptive to service

Control techniques to automatically select
required transmit techniques
Integrated multicast feature
Grouping feature for multicast over multiple
systems
QoS requests are conveyed to lower layers via
API i.e. cross-layer design
Small MIMO and adaptive arrays antennae in
handheld terminals (and in BSs)
Sensors and communication devices embedded
in clothing
Advanced DMFC fuel cells

Commonality with multiple air interface

specifications, including Wlan
Short-range communication carries out part of
mobile communication mutually supplementing
infra
UWB widely adopted for PAN, IEEE 802.15.4
ZigBee in object-to-object communication
Network system: all-IP hierarchical architecture
Ad hoc networks with automatically selected
optimal transmit technique. Security and QoS
assured.
Beamforming, SDM, multilevel modulation
DSRC, implementations on space time coding
MIMO transmission rate from 100 Mbps (>250
kmh) to 1Gbps (stationary user)
Optical network transmit rate 100 Gbps (1
carrier)

Information delivery based on location +

dynamic information
Personal information managed on the network
Synchronisation of data managed in distributed
multimedia storage
Authentication is done automatically unnoticed
by user

Appendix G Summary of Tekes NETS programme

vision and roadmap
NETS vision
The Finnish public authority Tekes published a vision report for its research programme
NETS-Networks of the Future.
2005

Packet-switched transmission in almost all terminals 28kb+ (GSM/WCDMA)

Multi-access terminals (GPRS/WLAN/Bluetooth)

Bluetooth common with light and WLAN in heavy applications

GPRS terminal positioning common (GSM, GPS)

Packet-switched 512kb+ home connection popular (ADSL, HFC, Ethernet)

Traffic prioritisation has been started (diffserv, less than best effort)

Optical technologies increased in core and subscriber networks (DWDM, MPLS)

Mobile Internet services common (MMS, WAP/WWW, mobile email)

Users can connect to their files from home, at work or on the move

IP-audio is popular, in fixed-line networks also real-time radiobroadcast

IP packet traffic is more common (WWW push-to-talk, chat, SIP)

New services are based on open standards (IETF, 3GPP, W3C, OMA)

2010

Packet-switched 100kb+ common in (WCDMA)

Energy storage efficiency only tripled (fuel cells, solar panels)

Multi-access
terminals
(WCDMA/GSM/WLAN/PAN)

Spectral efficiency of systems improved considerably

For short-range connectivity, UWB is gaining popularity (Ultra Wide Band)

Nanotechnology is promising after the silicon technology has reached its limitations

4G radio standard is getting ready, if WRC2007 has allocated frequency band

10Mb+ common at homes (VDSL, HFC, Ethernet)

Roaming popular for fixed-line access (home WLAN/Bluetooth devices)

Optical network capacity and management established (all-optical, connectivity)

and

87

networks

support

common

Contents are adapted proactively to environment (location, radio, device, user

profile)

IP audio/video delivery popular and efficient (multicast, QoS)

VoIP popular in public networks (fixed, wireless)

User controls home devices with various terminals independent of place and time

Shift to pure IPv6 environment is under way

Telepresence, 3D and virtual entertainment are in use

NETS thematic group 3a roadmap and vision summary

Thematic groups under the NETS programme have created their own vision and roadmap
statements. In the following, the roadmaps [17] of thematic group 3a New Applications and
Services are summarised. The timeframe of the 3a roadmap is between 2003 and 2005.
The seamless mobility of users and services in wireless, mobile and fixed networks is the
most important aspect of the vision. This is realized by IP-based applications. There is a
trend towards a converged network environment. Wireless solutions in companies have been
seen as a tool for improving effectiveness. Communication is becoming enriched (e.g. rich
call)
The thematic groups have identified the main requirements for future services. The main
requirement is that services must be easy to use (e.g. by familiar UI-like web browser) and
easy to charge. Also, standardised interfaces between networks, seamless roaming and
overlap of network coverage are factors of high importance. A common user access and
management control system needs to be developed over the open network structure.
Most of the enabling technologies considered important by the thematic groups are already in
existence: UMTS, EDGE (mid-term solution), IPv4, IPv6, 802.11f, 802.11e, 802.16a
(WiMAX), xDSL, Bluetooth, and DVB. There are also important technologies emerging, like
UWB (not yet in 2005) and new handover technologies (SW). On the terminal side, multiaccess will be a main enabler. Optimised smart antennae and MIMO technologies are
important transmission enablers.
The major application-level enablers are SIP/SIMPLE, Mobile IP, Extensible messaging and
presence protocol (XMPP), and Universal Plug and Play (UPnP). On the service level, OMA
SyncML, service platforms with open interfaces for third parties, efficient development tools
for services (OSA/Parlay, CPL editor), SIP convergence service, robust business models,
IMS and JAIN are the most important enablers. Mainstream enabling technologies within the
timeframe until 2005 are: MMS, JAVA, WAP2.0/XHTML, DRM and Push-to-talk (PoC).
Security is seen as an important factor. A common security service independent of access
type would be an important service.

88

There is a trend that the number of telecommunication protocols will increase, but new
protocols will tend to be relatively simple. The regulation aspects need to be considered for
privacy, and with EU directives.
Table 9 NETS thematic group 3a roadmap summary for 2005 (comments included from Elisa
roadmap, Risto Alander)

Scenarios &
user needs
Vision

Terminals

Network

Services

The seamless mobility of users and services in wireless, mobile and fixed networks.
Applications are IP-based, trend towards converged network environment
Companies improve their
The services must be easy to use (e.g. by
effectiveness by using wireless
familiar UI-like web browser) and easy to
solutions.
charge.
Communication is enriched (e.g. rich Standardised interfaces between networks,
calls)
seamless roaming, overlap of network
coverage
Common user access and
management control system needs to
be developed over the open network
structure
Rich calls
Location services
Emerging P2P services
IMS
Enterprise presence and messaging
Multi-access terminals

UMTS, EDGE (mid-term solution),,

802.11f, 802.11e, 802.16a
(WiMAX), xDSL, Bluetooth, DVB,
UWB (not yet in 2005),
IPv4, IPv6
New handover technologies (SW)
Transmission: optimised/smart
antennas, MIMO
SIP/SIMPLE, Mobile IP, Extensible
Messaging and Presence Protocol
(XMPP), UPnP

OMA SyncML
Service platforms with open interfaces for
third parties
Efficient development tools for services
(OSA/Parlay, CPL editor)
IMS, service platform OSA/Parlay, JAIN
MMS, JAVA, WAP2.0/XHTML
Push-to-talk (PoC)
LAN-WLAN-Bluetooth application level
roaming
3G-WLAN roaming

Content

DRM

Security

Common security service

independent of access type

Number of telecommunication protocols increase, but they tend to be more simple

Other
Factors

Regulation aspects need to be considered: privacy, EU directives

89

Appendix H Summary of AMI@LIFE Roadmap

Ambient Intelligence in Everyday Life (AmI@Life) was one of the two pilot S&T (Science
and technology) roadmaps developed at the IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies) of the European Commissions Joint Research Centre in collaboration with the
ESTO (European Science and Technology Observatory).
The AmI@Life roadmap focuses on trusted and universal access to ambient intelligence
technologies within the context of everyday life, raising the potential of full IST integration
in the everyday lives of ordinary European citizens.
The final report of the project was published in June 2003.
The summary of the roadmap in the following sections is organized based on the broad
application domains analyzed in the roadmap. These application domains are Housing,
Mobility and Transport, Shopping and Commerce, Education and Learning, Culture - Leisure
- Entertainment and Health. As the field was already broad, work in general and other
applications of AMI were left outside the roadmap.
Housing
Home is concerned with people, spaces, rooms, artefacts, furniture, etc. in various
combinations. Home is a place for various activities, like communication and socialising,
rest, relaxation and entertainment, as well as work and learning. Home Automation will take
care of security, physical access control, health-care and well being
There are certain requirements for domestic technologies, like wireless in-house networks,
easy-to-use technologies (unobtrusive, voice interface, no-interface), integration seamlessly
into the home network, context sensitivity (and personalization) for the assistance of routine
tasks, authentication and privacy protection. Unobtrusiveness and multi-.lingual
communication devices are also important factors.
Most important technologies for housing technologies are: networking technologies,
advanced and easy-use user interfaces. Technologies improving trust and security have an
important role.
Mobility and Transport
Getting from one place to another quickly, conveniently, inexpensively, without risk to
health and life, and with as little harm to the environment as possible is a vision of the
AMI@Life project concerning the mobility and transport application domain.

90

In order to implement the vision, the following applications are needed: traffic management
systems, including traffic monitoring, dynamic routing of traffic, ticketing and control.
Navigation in traffic is an important application in mobility and transport. Navigation
systems require real-time (traffic) information, travel assistance and individual navigation
functionalities. Safety is an important issue in traffic. In this context, safety includes
surveillance of driver, car and environment. Mobile information and entertainment services
are also highly relevant to the mobility and transport application field.
Services in mobility and transport are communication-intensive. There is a need for different
types of networks: mobile networks, sensor networks and P2P networks. There is also a need
to process a vast amount of information acquired from sensor networks. Services for
travellers need to be multi-lingual and easy to use with different types of terminals and user
interfaces. Interoperability of multiple different systems is an important topic. There are high
requirements for reliability in safety systems.
The most important technologies in the mobility and transport domain are networking,
microelectronics, user interfaces and system integration / interoperability.
Shopping and Commerce
In the shopping and commerce application domain, electronic support for shopping and
integration of customers into the electronic value chain is of concern. According to the
AMI@Life roadmap, there are different functionalities to be seen in the future: shopping
facilities leading to better transparency of the market, personalized advertising and profiling
of customer behaviour. Mobile business and commerce is seen as an important topic. Mobile
catalogue services and personalized marketing and advertising will be seen in the future.
Automation of order processing will improve productivity in certain functions.
There are high requirements for customers privacy and the security of payments and
transactions, as well as digital rights management for intangible goods. In order to facilitate
mobile commerce for the public on a large scale, mass producible and cheap tagging
technologies are needed. Technologies for personalisation can offer added value to
consumers and businesses through personalized services. New display technologies and easyto-use user interfaces are needed. In logistics applications, networked sensors and actuators
may offer improved effectiveness and better management of transport of goods.
Security and trust are crucial enablers in the shopping and commerce application domain.
Networking technologies as well as advancement in microelectronics are also important
issues.

91

Education and Learning

According to the AMI@Life roadmap, the main functionalities in the application field of
education and learning are distance learning, support for lifelong vocational learning and
non-formal learning. ICT is seen as a means to support traditional learning habits as well as
more learner-driven forms of information dissemination.
The most important enabling technologies for the proposed functionalities in the application
domain of education and learning are advanced knowledge management techniques, open
standards and data fusion techniques, augmented reality for new forms of learning, and
multi-lingual and adaptive user interfaces. Sophisticated DRM techniques as well as micro
payment solutions are important for business models related to learning and education..
The most important broad technology areas related to education and learning are knowledge
management, user interfaces and display techniques.
Culture, Leisure and Entertainment
The vision of the application field of culture, leisure and entertainment is to provide
enhanced and enriched forms of services for the consumer mass market. A trend towards
total experiences with blurred boundaries between culture and entertainment, information
and communication is a driving force in the application domain of culture, leisure and
entertainment. The application field is broad, including preservation, organization of and
access to cultural heritage, new forms of creativity and art, playing and gaming, as well as
sports and fitness applications and services.
The requirements for services in the application field are very different from service to
service. However, there are certain important technology requirements. Many services are
communication-intensive, they depend on open standards, and there is a need for multilingual and multi-modal user interaction with wide variety of output media (from mobile
terminals to augmented reality and flexible displays, etc). A need for adaptive and learning
techniques as well as personalisation is also identified in the AMI@Life roadmap.
The most important technologies for realising new services in the application field are
networking, user interfaces, knowledge management and artificial intelligence.
Health
Health becomes a major issue in an ageing society. Development in sensors and
communication allows the technical support of health functions. The aim is to allow a selfdetermined life for ill and elderly people and reduce the costs for health services. According
to the AMI@Life roadmap, there are various application types to be helped by the emerging
technologies of ambient intelligence (AMI). These are monitoring, consultation, information

92

& education, and prediction. Monitoring, diagnosis, treatment and surgery will also be helped
by AMI techniques. Functions of hospitals will also be supported by AMI techniques.
Services in the health application field have the highest requirements for all applications.
There is a need for the highest degree of privacy protection. Systems must be reliable and
trustworthy. They must be easy to use, especially when the users are not educated
professionals. Many services are communication-intensive. Bodily sensors and wearable
devices with low power consumption will open possibilities for new kinds of applications,
especially in preventive health care
The technologies of high importance in the health domain are security and trust,
microelectronic sensors and devices, networking, interfaces and power-source technologies
Key Technologies for AmI Applications
Since AmI can be defined as ubiquitous computing + ubiquitous communication + user
friendly and unobtrusive interfaces the key technologies are subdivided into

Computing (Microelectronics, Systems Software, Knowledge Management,

Artificial Intelligence, Robotics)
Communication and Networking
Interfaces and Displays

In addition to these, support technologies are identified

Trust and Security

Power Sources

93

Appendix I Summary of VTT Roadmaps

The publication: Communications Technologies, The VTT Roadmaps, gives the view of
VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland) on the future development of selected
information and communication technologies. The views are given as technology roadmaps
in the following areas:

Interoperability and Mobility in Future Networks

Micromechanical Radio Frequency Systems
Service Architectures
Smart Human Environments

The work is part of a theme called Future Communications Technologies, one of VTTs
strategic technology themes. The purpose of the roadmapping work is to help the planners
and players direct their activities towards better competitiveness in this rapidly developing
field by utilizing VTTs best expertise. The roadmap was published in 2002.

Interoperability and Mobility in Future Networks

Interoperability of networks can be divided into three levels: application, Internet and datalink. Currently, the Internet successfully hides most data-link-level details for packet traffic
(i.e., WLAN, GSM, UMTS GPRS, LAN). At the application level, there are adaptation
functions and gateways between the Internet and non-Internet applications (e.g., Internet
phone vs. normal phone service). Here we consider the all-IP case and then cases where
the networks in question are fundamentally different, such as voice-oriented networks and
the Internet. In these cases a gateway containing network-specific terminations for traffic
and transport mode conversions are needed. Towards the Internet an application entity will
be presented, and towards a non-Internet network (say, a phone network) a phone or a PBX
could be emulated. In order for application entities to interoperate over the Internet, they
must be able to a) publish the network resources they offer, b) locate the network resources
they need, c) exchange the messages needed to invoke the resources, d) make sense of the
messages application-specific content and e) react to this content in a proper way. In nontrivial cases this means maintaining the states and state information of the applications
involved.

94

Figure 17. Existing and emerging network technologies (source VTT roadmaps 2002)

Figure 18. Existing and emerging technologies in the wired domain (source VTT roadmaps
2002)

95

Micromechanical Radio Frequency Systems

The development of process technology has made it possible to manufacture mechanical
devices in addition to the electronic ones with the size of microelectronic components, i.e. in
the order of micrometers. Thus the name "micromechanics" or "microelectromechanical
systems" (MEMS). This development has made it possible to make mechanical components
with new functions and parameter ranges that were hitherto impossible Integratable with
microelectronic circuits and mass produce them at a very low price per device.
This development has generated the idea of using micromechanical devices in highfrequency systems, for instance in radio- type transmitting and/or receiving systems.
Much effort has already been put into implementing micromechanical devices in radio
systems. When a new technology emerges in an existing system field, the first phase is to
make replacements. In this case this means making mechanical devices that imitate
some microelectronic device or block in an existing system architecture.

Service Architectures
Future research activities in the area of service architectures are based on the vision of Cyber
Space. In Cyber Space, a human, or any type of machine, agent or service is able to
communicate in a unified way, share any type of information in a meaningful form, and
co-operate anywhere in real-time using available telecommunication services. The aim of
Cyber Space is to provide the relevant service in the right form anywhere and at any time the
service is needed by humans, machines or agents. Therefore, the objective of the Service
Architecture Framework is to support users subscribing to, and paying for, an open set of
services. As a framework, the Service Architecture Framework provides a skeleton for cooperating services with an integrated set of components that can be reused and customised.
The figure below illustrates the research challenges that must be tackled and solved in
order to gain a comprehensive open service architecture.

96

Figure 19. Service roadmap (source VTT roadmaps 2002)

Device architectures should stay invisible while providing network services for various
nodes. End users can only obtain the sophisticated service architecture through better,
mobile, adaptive and real-time data (or knowledge) transfer. The deployment of service
architectures will exploit new generations of network technologies and middleware,
including SW tools, distribution architectures, design patterns, component models, etc.
Currently, the Internet world mostly provides client-server applications. We believe the share
of publish-subscribe and peer-to-peer applications will increase dramatically. The
distribution of computation power will exploit multi-agent technologies, and the QoS
(Quality of Service) requirements will employ swarm intelligence methods. Adapting swarm
intelligence and peer-to-peer architectures will produce the goal: seamless hard real-time
network services for mobile users (human, device, machine or agent) in a
heterogeneous network environment.

Smart Human Environments

Our daily lives are gradually being pervaded by the technological advances of the
information age. Soon, the strand of these high-tech products will be so interwoven with the
fabric of our daily business that the patterns would be lost without it. Their presence will be
taken for granted, their services matter-of-course. Still, the changes to our physical
environment may be rather subtle, hiding the additional functionality in commonplace
objects.

97

The Smart Human Environment will completely change the way we interact with our
environment and with each other. People will communicate with their technological
environment naturally, using a variety of modalities and devices. The environment will be
aware of and will understand the user's social, physical and situational context. The
environment will be able to smartly assist the user in his tasks, based on this context
awareness and knowledge of the user's behavioural profile as well as common sense
knowledge. It will exhibit pro-active behaviour for recurring tasks and provide personalised
information services.

Figure 20. Roadmap for smart human environments (source VTT roadmaps 2002)
While reviewing the technologies enabling the smart human environment vision, four main
fields of research were distinguished within the IT research: Ambient Intelligence, Smart

98

Interaction, Smart Communication and Smart Information Management. Combining the

results of the research in these fields is vital in order to realise the awareness, informative
content and interaction that are sought for a smart environment.
When reviewing the state of the art of the enabling technologies for smart human
environments, some educated guesses can be made as to how this field of research will
evolve. In order to create this roadmap, the enabling technologies were divided into five
categories: ubiquitous computing, context awareness, positioning, personalisation and
multiple modalities. A team of experts were then asked to provide some examples of
applications likely to be available in 2002, 2004, 2006 and beyond.

99

Appendix J Summary of WWRI Roadmap

Scenarios for the wireless telecoms market 20022010,
The scenarios focus on the societal, business and regulatory trends that will drive demand
for, and the use of, wireless communications over the period to 2010. An analysis of the
requirements for enabling these scenarios will lead our thinking about the
technological research the industry needs to undertake.
The three scenarios are:
The Blue scenario: a world in 2010 where wireless is the dominant technology in
connecting people and machines.
The Red scenario: a world in 2010 where customers are highly experimental, and
intent on finding and trying out the applications and services that best meet their
needs.
The Green scenario: a world in 2010 where customers primarily want to meet their basic
personal communication needs, for example voice communication.
The wireless world of the Blue scenario

Wireless is the dominant technology in connecting people and machines

Demand for accessing quality digital content on the move grows steadily
Customers prefer to use simple and reliable devices
Large vendors and service providers invest heavily in offering well-packaged
products and services
Devices and services are subsidised in the early years to maximise adoption
Regulators ensure there is plenty of spectrum to meet network requirements
Customers demonstrate willingness to pay more for devices and content that meet
their needs
Companies begin introduction of higher speed mobile networks
Bigger operators, vendors and content owners dominate, though niche players do
well in selling

100

Figure 21. Three roadmap scenarios (source WWRI, Analysis)

The wireless world of the Red scenario

Customers highly experimental
Fixed broadband very successful
Customers influenced by open nature of Internet
Preference for selecting own content and applications
Customers like specialist devices
Home and office wireless networking products enthusiastically embraced
Wireless connectivity the default edge of fixed network solution
Vendors move to open technical platforms
Strong competition leads to low prices for products and services
Profusion of ad hoc networks in developed and developing markets
Emphasis on ambient technologies to enable device collaboration and m2m
Communication
The industry fragments as new equipment vendors and service providers enter the
market while system integrators increasingly challenge vertical operators

101

The wireless world of the Green scenario

Emphasis on basic personal communication needs

Customers adopt only simple low-cost devices
Deployment difficulties for 2.5/3G networks
No subsidisation of new devices or services
Shortages of spectrum
Wireless networking limited to the business environment
Demand for video telephony and video conferencing
Focus on m2m and background applications to make life easier
Significant industry consolidation amongst major vendors and operators and few
small players
Increasing emphasis on developing markets
Importance of partnerships with companies in other industries

Though the three scenarios and the consequent important technologies have been presented
in a sequential manner, the process of evolution in the real world may be quite different.
There is very little certitude that only one of the three studied scenarios will come
true in an overwhelming manner. Moreover, several other possible scenarios might
have been overlooked simply due the lack of information.

102

Appendix K Services and technology enablers

based on roadmaps

Table 10: Summary of service and technology enablers based on main roadmaps
2007

2012

SERVICES
Communication
services

Messaging services, person-to-person multimedia

services, rich Communication (presence,
positioning), videoconference, VoIP, SIP is major
service enabler, virtual personal networks, PoC
services (Push To Talk), service discovery services

Unified messaging (access to any message, anytime,

anywhere from any device), avatars-virtual assistants

Health care
wellbeing

and Medical data provision services, nursing care

information service, food and weight management

Mobile health checker with sensors in clothing and with

body area network components

Electronic
Commerce
public services

Internet services like shopping via fixed broadband,

and mobile ordering, mobile administrative services

Mobile commerce (mCommerce), electronic trading,

electronic notary

Security

Trusted third-party services (e.g. data mgmt), VPN

service

Real-time disaster information delivery service, thirdparty certification services (trust centres), personal
private network-service

Infotainment
services

Personalized information services based on profiles,

Access to existing web services (mobile and fixed)

Personalized information services based on

collaborating search agents, access to web services
(mobile and fixed + agents), augmented realityenhanced services

Video services

Videoconference, VoD services, low-rate video calls

(~0.3 Mbps)

Tele-presence, electronic multimedia magazine, internal

TV

and Location information service, automatic receiving of

related information based on location (e.g. navigation
system), context-aware services (simple context)

Location services based on accurate location anywhere,

automatic receiving of optimal-related information
based on location, context-aware services (context
fusion), warehousing and key finder services

Location
context-based
services

Mobile
education

working, Shared project spaces, virtual training room, teleeducation , enterprise network services (office VoIP
calls, VPN remote work, multimedia), contact centre
services , collaboration services

Services at home

TERMINALS
Radio access

Digital TV in every home, access home content (PC

pictures, store/retrieval)

Terminal centered

Digital library, on-demand knowledge centres, data

mining services

Virtual (video-based) "visiting", controlling of smart

home appliances,

Lower terminal dependency, also deviceless

Multiple simultaneous accesses 2G, 3G, HSDPA, Software Defined Radio, clear improvements on bits/Hz
WLAN, Bluetooth, DVB-S/T, PDC, PHS, NFC
efficiency
Sensing of environment

UI

Traditional + voice commands, text-to-speech, Device-less interaction or low need for specific
gestures (games)
terminal, full multimodality: voice, gestures, natural
sounding text-to-speech, speaker independency, eye
control, tactile feedback, pointing, HMD, non-rigid
scrollable displays

Authentication/secur
ity

Biometric identification

Single authentication with terminal - roaming of

authentication

103

Positioning

Standardised context & position format

Indoor/outdoor positioning accuracy below 1 meter in

<1 second intervals
Outdoor/indoor cellular positioning accuracy few
meters in few seconds intervals with A-GPS. Indoor Positioning with smart antennae, antenna arrays, MIMO
positioning possibility with WLAN in meter range.
Pseudolite in warehouses, GNSS

CPU, power

10-20 GHz, DMFC fuel cells

Software

JAVA, Symbian, OMA solutions, agent software, One operating system (OS), JAVA, agent software,
downloadable sw
interoperable software with open interfaces

Other

PoC, wearables are emerging

Sensors in clothing

NETWORKS

Convergence emerging

Converged networks

Network
technologies

UMTS, EDGE, xDLS, HSDPA, 802.11a/b/e/f/g, Software Defined Radio with downloadable SW from
802.16a WiMax, ZigBee, PDS, ATM. UWB network, new OFDM and multicarrier technologies
emerging
combined with enhanced 3G, WLAN, xDSL++,
Bluetooth+, DVB+, ATM, UWB

Bandwidth

Symmetrical traffic for core IP networks

~ 100 GHz, new power sources, advancement in DMFC

Symmetrical traffic in both core IP and mobile networks

Mobile networks: 2 Mbps on the move and 10-14 Mobile networks: 100 Mbps on the move, 1 Gbps for
Mbps for stationary user
stationary user (short range)
Optical networks: 40 Gbps (1 carrier)

Optical networks: 100 Gbps (1 carrier)

MIMO: <20 Mbps

MIMO: 100 Mbps (< 250 kmh) 1 Gbps for stationary

Roaming

Application-level roaming between different access Network-supported roaming between all-kinds of

technologies
networks intra-inter-technologies, operators, publicprivate networks. Seamless handover with multicast.
Network-level 3G-WLAN roaming inside same Wireless routers are used.
operator network

QoS

QoS applications emerging, SLA

Network-dependebt QoS mechanisms not fully
interoperable

End-to-End QoS, QoS-based charging, monitoring, QoS

roaming, SLA

Mobility

MobileIPv6 mobility

MobileIPv6 + micro mobility solutions provide fast,

loss-less handover

BAN/PAN

In certain regions and purposes

PANs used widely in conjunction with ad hoc

connectivity to other devices and networks, multihop,
location tracking for moving networks, sensor networks
embedded in our surroundings

Home networks

Mainly Internet connectivity

Virtual Home Environment (VHE)

Protocols

IPv6 spreading, MPLS, GMPLS

IPv6 is a base protocol

Ad hoc and sensor

networks

New transport protocols supporting QoS

Misc

MIMO and smart antennae in base stations

MIMO and smart antennae in terminals (and base

stations), diversity techniques, frequency sharing,
spectrum co-farming, cross-layer design

CONTENT

Video coding increasingly important

Data traffic largely multimedia

Compression
and MPEG-4 H.264 and its successors prominent, New 5-10 times more efficient coding techniques, FGS
metadata formats
MPEG-7, MPEG-21, high-quality voice coding
codecs supporting QoS
Enablers

DRM, mark-up languages (XML), profiling UaProf, DRM and content protection
CC/PP

SECURITY

Security
not
communication

Authentication
privacy

very

well

established

in E2E security management, embedded security

and SIM card, bank accounts, biometric identification, Common automatic, transparent user authentication
digital signatures
architecture for all networks with single sign-on to
ubiquitous networks

104

PKI, VPN, DRM OMA solutions, IPSec

Trusted third-party certification

Misc services and

software
Enablers and open SIP/Simple, XMPP, SyncML, OMA solutions, JAVA, open standards, interfaces
standards
OSA/Parlay, CPL editor, MMS, JAVA, Symbian,
UPnP, IMS, Jain, WAP2.0/XHTML, PoC, OSS,
Agile software methods
Software

Fast development cycle for service and application Open API's for third parties
development, Agile sw-development

105

Technology Reviews of Tekes

162/2004 ROADMAP for Network Technologies and Services. Petteri Alahuhta, Marko Jurvansuu,
Heikki Pentikinen. 104 p.
161/2004 Innovaatio investointina. Osa 2. Tekesin rahoituksen vaikutukset yritysten t&k-toimintaan
kyselytutkimuksen tulokset. Joonas Pekkanen, Toni Riipinen, Seppo Leminen, KTT. 48 s.
160/2004 FINE-ohjelmaraportti
159/2004 Ohutlevyteollisuuden kehittmistarpeiden kartoitus. Mikael Ollikainen, Juha Varis. 135 s.
158/2004 Microfluidics. Pasi Kallio, Johana Kuncova. 32 p.
157/2004 Proteomics Challenges and possibilities in Finland. Heini Koivistoinen, Harri Siitari. 35 p.
156/2004 Finnish Software Product Business: Results from the National Software Industry Survey 2003.
Juhana Hietala.
155/2004 Globaali tietoyhteiskunta Kehityssuuntia Piilaaksosta Singaporeen. Pekka Himanen (toim.).
119 s.
154/2004 Logistiikan shkisten tieto- ja viestintteknologioiden hydyntminen Kokemuksia suomalaisista yrityksist. Jouni Kauremaa, Jaana Auramo. 49 s.
153/2004 Ravitsemushoidon kustannusvaikuttavuus taloudellinen arviointi kansansairauksien
ehkisyss ja/tai hoidossa. Anne-Mari Ottelin. 37 s.
152/2004 Viranomaisvalvonta kudosteknologian tuotekehityksess.
151/2004 Toimialakehitys ohjelmistoteollisuuden vauhdittajana Uutta liiketoimintaa lhialoilta.
Pasi Tyrvinen, Juhani Warsta, Veikko Seppnen. 71 s.
150/2003 Towards a Supercluster: Chemical and Biochemical Innovations Connecting Finnish Clusters.
149/2003 Managing Non-Core Technologies: Experiences from Finnish, Swedish and US Corporations
Annaleena Parhankangas, Pivi Holmlund, Turkka Kuusisto. 76 p.
148/2003 Kantasolutoimiala Suomessa. Toimijoiden nkemyksi vuonna 2003. Noin 90 s.
147/2003 Innovative waste management products European market survey. Christoph Genter. 40 p.
146/2003 Elektroniikan lmmnhallinta. Simo Keskinen. 8 s.
145/2003 The Finnish Maritime Cluster. Mikko Viitanen, Tapio Karvonen, Johanna Vaiste, Hannu Hernesniemi. 187 p.
144/2003 Tracing Knowledge Flows in the Finnish Innovation System A Study of US Patents Granted
to Finnish University Researchers. Martin Meyer, Tanja Sinilinen, Jan Timm Utecht,
Olle Persson, Jianzhong Hong. 36 p.
143/2003 Paikannus mobiilipalveluissa ja sovelluksissa. Antti Rainio. 75 s.
142/2003 Innovaatio investointina. Osa 1. Rahoitusteoreettinen nkkulma Tekesin vaikuttavuuteen.
Mika Vaihekoski, Seppo Leminen, Joonas Pekkanen, Jussi Tiilikka
141/2003 Suomen bioteollisuuden bioprosessitekniset tarpeet
140/2003 Suomen meriklusteri. Mikko Viitanen, Tapio Karvonen, Johanna Vaiste, Hannu Hernesniemi. 190 s.
139/2003 Innovaatioita metsstmss media valinkauhassa. Ulf Lindqvist, Timo Siivonen,
Caj Sdergrd. 44 s.
Subscriptions:

www.tekes.fi/english/publications