ENSO and global warming

During the last several decades the number of El Nio events increased, and the number of La Nia events
decreased.[49] The question is whether this is a random fluctuation or a normal instance of variation for that
phenomenon, or the result of global climate changes towards global warming.
The studies of historical data show that the recent El Nio variation is most likely linked to global warming.
For example, one of the most recent results is that even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal
variation, shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend, the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the
observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years. [51]
It is not certain what exact changes will happen to ENSO in the future: different models make different
predictions (cf.[52]) It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Nio events
occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get
warmer as well), El Nio will become weaker than it was. [53] It may also be that the stabilizing and
destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other.[54] More research
is needed to provide a better answer to that question, but the current results do not completely exclude the
possibility of dramatic changes.