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11.
Demographic shift : There is also the fear that the CPEC may
lead to widespread displacement of the locals. Of the 73,000 square
kilometres, cultivable land is just 1pc," Hunzai explained. "If that is also
swallowed by rich investors from outside, we will become a minority
and economically subservient once there will be no farmland or
orchards left to earn our livelihood from."
12.
Along with trade corridor other multibillion-mega projects
agreement have been signed in the sectors of economic and energy
development. In the celebrity celebration of no G.B constitutional
cabinet members are again constantly ignored despite to knowing the
realities that Gilgit-Baltistan is the gateway of Pak- China relation and
more than 600 kilometers KKH route cross over this territory.
13.
In china highest income generator is regarded winner and
revenue generation from foreign is considered hero, on this revenue
generating strategic approach China has connected railway line from
central Asian 1990 for the easiest transportation oil and gas to the
country. For this regard China constructed 761km long distance pipe
line from Kazakhistan by China National Petroleum Cooperation (CNPC)
to reservoir of oil and gas to manufacture variety of domestic and
international stander products to use its cheapest labors cost.
14.
In the second target of China republic is supply its products to
Europe and USA through China-Pak economic corridor.
15.
G.B allied with Pakistan without any certain agreement because
of religion belief and brotherhood but it causes much political right
discrimination from that day. Federal government is gain used to away
Gilgit-Baltistan from the biggest agreement on Pak-China trade
corridor. It would be first democratic struggle for regional leaderships
to get maximum advantage for the G.B economic development
through this big agreement. Inhabitants of the region are more curious
to know!
16.
What is Gilgit-Baltistan stake pre and post construction
of the trade corridor?
17.
What will be the economic benefit for the GilgitBaltistan from the economic trade corridor?
18.
What will be key administrative roles for Gilgit-Baltistan
to implement the project?
19.
What will be the special quota for the employment
sector for Gilgit-Baltistan in the biggest project?
20.
Does G.B elected government and opposition leadership
are being ever viewed the pre and revised agreements of PakChina trade corridor whether it address the economic
challenges of G.B or not?
21.
However it is very important for leaderships to restructure
practices rather than to get federal government sympathy and
appreciation. It is the time for the political figures to work in a real
essence of political domain to seek and address the fundamental
rights.
22.
He is not the only one. Given the secrecy and confusion
surrounding the project, its design and its budgetary allocation, three
of Pakistans four provinces recently held a well attended All Parties
Conference (APC) and vented their anger at the central government for
its opaqueness regarding the share of investments for each of the
provinces.
23.
CPEC is not the problem. It has just highlighted the imbalance in
provinces with the largest one, Punjab, being seen as favoured
specially as far as investments on road infrastructure are concerned
and fueling bitterness among the rest of the three provinces, rued
Vaqar Zakaria, an energy expert heading Hagler Bailley.
24.
Trying to address the concerns of the provinces soon after the
APC, federal minister for planning, Ahsan Iqbal, who heads the
Planning Commission of Pakistan, said in a television interview that this
was not a time for scoring political points by making the project
controversial. CPEC, he said, was not a project to benefit a party or a
government as was being portrayed by politicians and the media but to
the
entire
country
25.
Of the US $46bn, between $35bn to $38bn were
earmarked for the energy sector of this, $11.6bnwill be
invested in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, $11.5bn in Sindh, $7.1bn in
Balochistan and $6.9bn in Punjab.
26.
Beijing has urged Islamabad to resolve the internal
differences on the CPEC to create favourable working
conditions for the project to roll out smoothly.
During Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang's visit to Pakistan in May 2013, the
construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was put on agenda after
both the sides agreed to launch a long-range plan. In July, the two countries
formally signed an agreement to build the corridor which according to
preliminary planning, would link the two neighbouring countries straight from
Kashgar in Xinjiang Province to Gwadar Port. Special Economic Zones will be
established along it. The whole investment will cost about $18 billion.
Highways, railways, oil and gas pipelines, cables will be simultaneously built
in the region, named a four-in-one channel focusing on trade and energy
fields. The corridor has been strongly commended economically and geostrategically, and regarded as the fifth major energy channel across China.
Strategic energy cooperation between the two countries had been
implemented before the proposal of the conception of the corridor. During
the former Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's visit to Pakistan in December
2010, the National Energy Administration (NEA) of China and the Ministry of
Petroleum and Natural Resources of Pakistan issued a memorandum of
understanding on the establishment of energy working-group mechanism.
The first meeting of this group was held in August 2011, during which both
sides had a thorough exchange of views on the development of electricity,
coal, oil, gas and new energy industries. A cooperative programme was
generated to help Pakistan alleviate energy shortages at the second meeting
in Pakistan in May 2012. The group was absorbed in the framework of ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor in 2013. At the third meeting in January 2014
both the countries reached consensus on nuclear power, electricity, coal and
renewable energy, and agreed to set up a research team to promote energy
cooperation for the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, mainly
including coal exploitation, oil and gas extraction, mining and transportation,
electric wire net arrangement, etc.
The Significance of the Economic Corridor for Chinas Energy
Strategy
Energy is an important geopolitical commodity influencing a country's
national security, sustainable economic development and social stability
directly. As a major energy producing and consuming country in the world,
China is now facing four risks in energy security. First, there is an obvious
conflict between energy supply and demand, low level of protection and
heavy dependence on external sources in China. Second, the existing
monopoly of international energy resources by the West makes it more
difficult for China to acquire overseas energy, or to pay more bills for it.
Third, the future of the international energy market will be more uncertain
because of the dominant role of developed countries in the establishment of
energy market mechanism. Fourth, the energy price is overall in the upward
trend. It is the same situation in Pakistan. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
will be a good approach for addressing these problems in the common
interests of both sides, which means acquiring energy safely and steadily,
and shifting to a low-carbon, environmentally friendly energy system
appropriately.
The Significance of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor for Chinas
Energy Strategy is Summed up in two points.
Firstly, the corridor will favour increasing energy import channels. At present,
oil from the coast of Indian Ocean accounts for nearly 80 percent of the
whole import of the same commodity in China. Pakistan has an important
geo-strategic position - it is located in the south of Iran, north of the Indian
Ocean, east of the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea, which serves as a bridge
leading to the Indian Ocean, the Middle East and Africa. It is also close to
several energy producing countries like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan, Russia, and neighbouring two emerging energy consuming
countries - China and India. As an excellent deep-water port, Gwadar is 400
km away from the Strait of Hormuz and about 500 km away from Karachi,
the most developed industrial and commercial city in Pakistan. Oil and
natural gas from Iran may soon flow to China when the corridor opens up,
greatly decreasing Chinas dependence on energy imports from the Indian
Ocean and getting rid of Malacca dilemma. Energy products imported from
Africa and the Middle East can also be directly transported to northwestern
China from the shore of Gwadar. Transportation costs and time will be greatly
reduced compared to importing from southeast coast of China. If the oil and
gas pipelines between China and Pakistan connect with those in Central Asia,
India, Burma and Bengal, China will get benefits from the whole transnational
transportation system on land.
Secondly, the corridor will create a new opportunity for energy cooperation
between the two countries. With the energy cooperation becoming a current
trend, bilateral and multilateral cooperation is recommended in varying
degree among energy producing and consuming countries in the world.
Chinese enterprises have explored nuclear energy and hydropower market in
Pakistan since the late 90's. China was responsible for the construction of
Chashma Nuclear Power Complex in Punjab. Several companies, Sinohydro
Group Ltd., and Dongfang Electric Corporation (DEC) as the representatives,
have taken up multiple hydropower projects. With the development of the
corridor, the existing cooperation in nuclear energy and hydropower projects
will be boosted and other cooperative areas will be expanded.
Pakistan is adequate in natural gas. According to an investigation by the
British Petroleum Company (BP), natural gas achieves 22.7 trillion cubic feet
by the end of 2012, accounting for 0.3 percent of the world, distributing in
Baluchistan Province and Karachi sea area. Coal reserves amount to 198.2
billion tons mainly in the province of Sindh, Baluchistan, Punjab and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa in 2007, ranking 7th in the world. A report from Energy
Information Administration (EIA) of America mentioned geological reserves of
shale oil to be discovered in Pakistan would reach 227 billion barrels, with
technically recoverable resources of 9.1 billion barrels, ranking 8th in the
world. Geological reserves of shale gas to be discovered reach 586 trillion
cubic feet, with technically recoverable resources of 105 trillion cubic feet,
ranking 18th in the world. They are distributed in the Sembar and Ranikot
group of Indus River basin. In addition, Pakistan has rich resources of wind,
solar and biomass energies.
Feasibility Analysis of the Economic Corridor
Construction
The good political relationship and robust economic cooperation between
China and Pakistan have laid a foundation for the implementation of the
corridor. The two countries have been close friends since the establishment
of their diplomatic ties, beyond different ideologies and national institutions,
regardless of the domestic and international political changes be it in the
Cold War period or in the post Cold War era. The economic cooperation
mainly referred to economic assistance during the Cold War. In fact, the two
countries have some complementarities in resource structure and the level
of economic development. Besides commodity trade, both the countries
have carried out various forms of cooperation such as joint venture running,
project contracting in recent years. More and more Chinese companies have
invested in Pakistan. Cooperation in machine manufacturing, textile, mineral
resource exploitation, telecommunication and financial industries between
the counties shows a great potential.
But undeniably, the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is also
faced with some difficulties and challenges.
help China to strengthen political and economic connections with South Asia,
Central Asia and the Middle East in the coming decades. In spite of
difficulties and challenges, the significance of corridor cannot be simply
ignored. The key point lies in fully assessing the risks of construction,
carefully making risk-avoiding programmes and putting them into effect
early.
Ministry
for
Economic
Cooperation
and
Development
(BMZ),
Germany.
What do you think the benefits of the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor are?
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a significant part of a
regional initiative led by China, known as One Belt, One Road (OBOR) or the
New Silk Road Economic Development Corridor. Basically the OBOR plan
aims to revive ancient trade routes connecting Asia with Europe and Africa.
This was a vision of Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. Since its
announcement Xis vision has made headway and has become a major focus
of Chinese diplomacy. Led by Beijing, the OBOR concept refers to two
ambitious development proposals the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and
the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The SREB seeks to revive the ancient
Silk Road that once connected China with Europe by land via high-speed
railroads, highways, energy and distribution networks, as well as fibre optic
networks. The CPEC must be understood as a crucial part of the Chinas
OBOR initiative aiming at the establishment of an overland Silk Road
Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road through Pakistani port facilities.
relations.
Secondly,
the
notion
that
successful
(complete)
implementation of the CPEC will improve the credibility and capacities of the
(civilian)
government
and
as
such
strengthen
processes
of
(good)
literacy and income with over 52% of the population living beneath the
poverty line. Having this in mind, the Baloch insurgents identify the CPEC as
a foreign occupation of their homeland and an attempt to marginalize the
native Baloch people in the name of economic development. Furthermore,
the Economic Corridor is seen as Punjabi expansionism and a strategy by the
central government to strengthen their grip over Baloch resources. As such,
concern is rising over speculation that the project will benefit only Islamabad
and serve Chinese interests, with little to offer the Baloch people. At the
moment it seems that there are some improvements of the security situation
especially in the risky areas like restive areas of Balochistan. However,
they are still on a very high level determining a severe threat for quick
establishing and smooth running of the CPEC.
Given the realities of Pakistans security landscape, do you think
Pakistan can guarantee a secure and stable environment for the
CPEC?
In this context we have to differentiate between a short and long term
perspective. I am firmly convinced that due to massive military operations
like Zarb-e-Azb and the creation of new Special Forces to protect CPEC, the
implementation of infrastructure and energy projects (early harvest projects)
will continue more or less smoothly, most likely with some delays because of
temporary militant and/or political disturbances, administrative hurdles and
lack of civilian management capacities. However, the major problem
regarding the security environment lies in the persistent and overall
protection of the CPEC in the long run, for several reasons:
Firstly, it will be most unlikely that Pakistan can maintain the current level of
combat troops to protect the CPEC permanently. In this context, one must
state that the number of terrorist attacks went down because of the major
military operation of Zarb-e-Azb. But when the army returns to the barrack or
reduces its engagement/shifting the responsibility to civilian law enforcing
agencies (which should be the norm and not the exception) and/or
concentrate on other areas, the number of attacks might increase again.
The CPEC has to deal with severe geographical obstacles & natural
calamities affecting negatively the Northern Route of the CPEC. Despite the
fact that several significant geographical obstacles, especially in the
mountainous areas of northern Pakistan, are being overcome, some others
must be still addressed.
First of all, the CPEC has to face the major problem that the Khunjerab Pass
remains closed during the winter season (from November to May because of
heavy snow). Furthermore, the CPEC implementation has to deal with a lack
of time and insufficient management capacities of Pakistani authorities.
Having this in mind, an important puzzle appears: how realistic is the
implementation of such a mega-project in an underdeveloped, politically
unstable
country
with
an
extraordinary
weak
institutional,
political-
important
that
Pakistan
includes
its
neighbours
which
would
and
constructive
Pakistan-Iran
relationship
are
essential
double
game
or
two-track
diplomacy.
This
is
gaining
account, one can state that an Iran option will function as an additional
option for Beijing but not as a substitute for the CPEC. Consequently, at the
moment it seems that it is not clear how far Iran might turn in to a
competitor or collaborative partner of the CPEC. However, from the Pakistani
side, it is far more complex. Any substantial cooperation between Tehran and
Islamabad has to take the special relations between Pakistan and Saudi
Arabia as well as Riyadhs sentiments towards Teheran into account. Riyadh
and Islamabad have long cooperated closely in the field of defence and
security, and Saudi Arabia has often helped Pakistan in precarious financial
situations. The CPEC may nevertheless reflect the beginning of a gradual
shift in Pakistans regional outlook and its relations to Iran and Saudi Arabia.
On the one hand, Pakistan considers Iran a potential partner which can help
overcome its dire energy needs, and on the other, it does not want to offend
further Saudi Arabia by getting too close to Tehran. This will be a difficult task
for Islamabad due to the growing Saudi-Iranian hostility in the Middle East.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan will take most likely a careful approach
towards Iran in order to not alienate further its relations with Saudi Arabia.
Some experts opine this initiative can bring greater cohesion in South Asia,
one of the worlds least economically integrated regions. It is also feared that
clashing geo-economic interests may lead to unhealthy competition.
Gains for China
While the CPEC may be monumental for Pakistan, for China it is part of
more ambitious plans to beef up the countrys global economic muscle.
Chinese officials describe the corridor as the flagship project of a broader
policy One Belt, One Road which seeks to physically connect China to
its markets in Asia, Africa, Europe and beyond. The New Silk Road will link
China with Europe through Central Asia and the Maritime Silk Road to ensure
a safe passage of Chinas shipping through the Indian Ocean and the South
China Sea. CPEC will link China with nearly half of the population of the
world.
Access to Indian Ocean via Gwadar will enable Chinas naval warships and
merchant ships to bypass Malacca Strait and overcome its Malacca
Dilemma.
Development of Gwadar seaport and improvement of the infrastructure in
the hinterland would help China sustain its permanent naval presence in the
Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
At the same time, the new silk roads are bound to intensify ongoing
competition between India and China and to a lesser extent between China
and the US to invest in and cultivate influence in the broader Central Asian
region.
Indian Concerns
Modi is at the horns of dilemma; whether to bow to RSS agenda of Hindutva
and remain captive to entrenched interest groups and lobbies in India with
hardened mindset who are doggedly resisting any paradigm shift in relations
with rising China and cling to the myth of Mahabharat. The dice of
connectivity loaded by China has left India confused and bewildered, whether
to remain tied to the aprons of declining super power which is not in a
position to make big investments, or to hitch the bandwagon of ascending
power which promises a lot.
Modis position will become more vulnerable when Pakistan starts politically
stabilizing and economically shining and Lahore turning into a regional
capital and he unable to fulfill the development agenda.
India is also concerned about Chinas huge investment in Pakistan,
particularly its recent decision to fund a new batch of nuclear reactors.
Pakistan plans to add four new nuclear plants by 2023, funded by China, with
four more reactors in the pipeline (adding up to a total power capacity of
7,930 MW by 2030). China is helping Pakistan in producing plutonium at
Chinese built Khushab reactor and will also sell 8 submarines worth $5
billion, which will give a quantum jump to Pak Navys sea capability.
Possibility of India making another somersault after finding the dicey US
Asia-Pacific pivot less attractive and Chinas policy of peace and friendship
more beneficial cannot be ruled out. However, this strategic shift will take
place only when China agrees to give preference to India over Pakistan (as
had happened in 1990 when the US ditched Pakistan and befriended India).
Pakistans Travails. Pakistan has remained under a dark star for a long
period. It has bravely sailed past the period of trials and tribulations but at a
very heavy cost. Pakistan has acted as the frontline state against the Soviets
and against global terrorism and suffered enormously, but in the process it
allowed China 35 free years to develop and prosper unobtrusively.
Changing Geo-Political Environment
Geo-political scenario is fast changing and things are brightening up for
Pakistan after its long rocky journey. China has entered into a new era of geoeconomic relationship with Pakistan and plan to boost two-way trade from
1.
CPEC has opened vista of great opportunities for Pakistan and will
greatly help in overcoming poverty, unemployment, inequities of smaller
provinces and help Pakistan in becoming the next Asian tiger.
2.
CPEC from all counts will prove a game changer and will make China a
real stakeholder in Pakistans stability and security. It is a win-win
situation for both. It will greatly expand the scope for the sustainable and
stable development of Chinas economic development.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Keeping strategic parity with India has now become an achievable goal
for Pakistan.
12.
Afghan peace talks than it is with the US, whose intentions are highly
suspect.
15.
China is uniquely placed to pull the key regional states Russia, Iran,
They have put their heads together to work out new strategies how to block
the forward march. RAW has opened a special office in Delhi and has been
allotted $300 million to disrupt CPEC. Already one can notice sudden upsurge
in acts of terror in the three restive regions and activation of certain NGOs
and think tanks all trying to air misgivings and create fear psychosis.
ANP, Baloch nationalists, PkMAP raised serious objections on the routes of
CPEC and alleged these have been changed. Even PTI and JUI-F showed
inclinations to climb the bandwagon of anti-CPEC forces. Objections were
being raised despite assurances by the government that no change has been
made.
Controversies Raised in CPEC
1.
Eastern route benefits Punjab and Sindh and bypasses major portion of
Baluchistan and KP.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Governments Stance
2013.
2014.
Kashgar-Karakorum Highway.
2016.
2017.
2018.
2021.
2022.
2023.
2024.
Baluchistan respectively.
Ramifications
1.
Political consensus, security and law and order are pre-requisites for
early completion of CPEC.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Actions in hand
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Conclusion
The CPEC connected to Gwadar has the potential to radically alter the
regional dynamics of trade, development and politics. CPEC is a game
changer for the entire region. It will uplift the lives of about 3 billion people
across China, Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle East.
The time and tide is not in favor of the detractors. They will die their death in
the hurricane of CPEC since China is determined to make Pakistan a success
story. $46 billion economic package is Chinese gift for people of Pakistan.