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BSF
EXERCISE 2
is the demand and supply. Overall, it is a very useful tool in decision making about the proposed
products to be marketed. It helps in making a business venture decides what are the efficient
methods to incur a less input into their product without sacrificing its quality. Also, to know how
much the products should be sold in a way that fits the income of the buyers.
Lastly, there is a need to analyze the market channels of forest products so that it can be
assessed if there are progressive and dynamic forest products distribution services operating
within the system. It helps in bridging the gap of the producer up to the consumer with regard of
product transaction and exchange.
II. OBJECTIVES
This paper aims to:
1. Determine the market channel of forest products existing in Laguna province and the
whole country
2. Determine and analyze the price of selected forest products in the area given
3. Assess the supply, demand and price trend of selected forest products and the factors
that affects the three of them
4. Project the price of selected forest products over the next five years
III. METHODOLOGY
A. Collection of Data
To be able to determine the marketing channel of forest products in the Philippines, a
sample study has been conducted in the province of Laguna where different wood, handicrafts
and bamboo-made products are offered. One of the woodcraft stores along Laguna was asked for
a personal interview with the owner. The different marketing channels that their end products
gone through were also asked, this includes the supplier of raw materials, the processing stage,
and distribution stage. The selling and buying prices of the products in each system are also
asked and the different challenges that arise along within it.
Then, the data from the previous exercise (Characterization of Forest Products and their
Markets in the Philippines) has been used for price analysis of major forest products in the
Philippines such as log, lumber and plywood. These data, again, came from the Chapter 4:
Environment and Natural Resources of the Philippine Statistical Authority 2015 Yearbook and
some excerpts from the data available in Forest Management Bureau webpage.
There are problems that have been encountered in collection of the data and these
includes:
1) Philippine Statistical Authority only have data for the production volume of log,
lumber and plywood1, there is no production value available. Thus, the prices of these timber
products are used by multiplying it with the production volume in order to get the production
value.
2) In relation to number 1, the data for the prices of these products are tabulated in
months and price per region since it varies. So, the average prices were computed to come up
with one price value in every year. Moreover, these data is not compiled in a single yearbook,
hence, every yearbook from 2000-2014 has been examined.
3) There is no consumption volume and value that are present, so it has to be manipulated
using the formula: production volume (in cubic meter) or the quantity of products produced *
unit cost or the price value.
4) The prices for the export and import of products were produced by dividing the
export/import value to its corresponding export/import volume.
B. Presentation of Data
The data gathered were organized and tabulated into different categories. The summarize
data of it were presented in graphs to easily see the trends.
C. Analyzation of Data
Regression analysis tool has been applied to be able to get the projected price of the
forest products in each year from 2000-2014. Moreover, the values have been extrapolated to
know the price of forest products over the next five years.
The data analysis tool in excel was used where x input is the time and y input is the prices
of the particular forest product, the summary output was then presented automatically, and from
that the coefficient of the intercept and time were get to be able to compute the projected price.
The formula: a + (b*t) was used.
Also, the formula: ((Qlastyear-Q1styear)/(Q1styear)/n was used to get the average annual
growth rate of forest products in terms of production. The contribution of forestry sector in the
national GDP was also assessed.
Lastly, the demand for forest products was assessed through the use of production
volume as the x-variable and the income and prices as the y-variable. The projected values for
these are also computed.
1 The products analyzed are some of the major forest products in the Philippines
Plywood- Assembled product made usually of an odd number of layers of veneers glued together by means of adhesive
Laguna Province
Supplier
Processo
r
Philippines
Productio
n
Consumer
Export
Import
LOG
LUMBER
Buying and Selling
Prices
PLYWOOD
Products
Swietenia mahogany
Gliricidia sepium
Tamarindus indica
*approximate price only according to the owner
Price/Tree*
20 000
10 000
5 000
Products Manufactured
Price (in peso)*
Chopping board
80
Divider
5000
Set of Dining Table
18000
Wood bed
25000
Nipa Hut
40000
Tree House
650000
*Prices may vary according to the wood species used, size and design of the products
Average Income per Week
100 000 pesos
*may vary depending on the number of orders
Alfredos Wood Craft gets raw materials specifically in their neighboring municipality
and province which is San Pablo and Quezon Province respectively. This is efficient since the
cost of travel is not that much higher since the place is near to them. They get the raw materials
in the form of log and the price of it varies according to wood species, sizes and its availability.
After this, they are the one who manufacture it into a usable products. The only added value that
is considered are the machineries being use and the materials for polishing such as paints etc. but
other than that is nothing more since they do not focus on a more conflict decorative designs.
The price of their products also varies depending on different factors especially when the
customers put an added instruction to the product they want.
Basically, their customers are usually the households since the furniture for home is their
basic products. Aside from that, there have also dealer from Sucat, Manila who transact with
them as the supplier of these wood-made products and according to them, they export it to
different countries.
On the average, they gathered an approximate amount of 100,000 pesos per week
depending on how many the orders are.
Large Scope: Philippines
To be able to analyze the market channels of the selected forest products in the
Philippines, it is first important to know the structure of this channel that is existing in the
present context. This is summarized as:
Table 2. Structure of the Marketing Channel of Forest Products in the Philippines
1) Producers
Suppliers
2%
4%
5%
5%
6%
40%
15%
24%
Tree Farmers
Lumber Dealers
Agent
CBFMA
IFMA/TLA
Sawmill
Importer
Others
Buyers
3%
12%
4%
34%
5%
8%
14%
20%
Sawmill
Plywood/Veneer Plant
Lumber dealers
Furniture Makers
Agent
Mini sawmill
Contruction
Others
to examine this trend are: log, lumber and plywood. The prices came from the various yearbook
of Philippine Statistical Authority.
A. LOG
LOG
120000
100000
PRODUCTION PRICE
80000
PRODUCTION PROJECTED
60000
EXPORT PRICE
40000
EXPORT PROJECTED
IMPORT PRICE
20000
IMPORT PROJECTED
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-20000
Figure 4. Comparison of logs production, export and import prices to its projected prices
In terms of log production, the values of the price and the price projected are very close
with each other except in the year 2013 where the values differ by 25.76%. Noticeable in the
export aspects the big difference between the two. In the year 2000 up to 2003, the value
computed to the projected price is negative while in the later year, it exceeded the real price.
Same with the production, the import values of the two are close with one another. However, to
sum this up, the r-squared values for these three aspects namely: production, export and import
show that these are not reliable for interpretation as it show low precision. The r-squared values
are as follow: 0.00066, 0.28541 and 0.299105 respectively.
B. LUMBER
LUMBER
30000
25000
PRODUCTION PRICE
20000
PRODUCTION PROJECTED
15000
EXPORT PRICE
10000
EXPORT PROJECTED
IMPORT PRICE
5000
0
IMPORT PROJECTED
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 5. Comparison of lumbers production, export and import prices to its projected prices
It can be seen that both of the price and the projected one in the import are positively
increasing. This means that there is a high amount that we spent in getting lumber in the other
countries. In comparison with the export values, the country gets a lesser amount in selling our
lumber products in the other country and this is just one manifestations of the export ban in the
Philippines. In terms of the production, there are both low values for the supply of lumber.
The r-squared computed in the production aspect is 0.944572 meaning that the projected
prices are very close to the real prices. It can be a good and reliable considerations in assessing
the future prices of the product. However, the two factor have a weaker reliability.
C. PLYWOOD
PLYWOOD
50000
45000
40000
35000
PRODUCTION PRICE
30000
PRODUCTION PROJECTED
25000
EXPORT PRICE
20000
EXPORT PROJECTED
15000
IMPORT PRICE
IMPORT PROJECTED
10000
5000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Figure 6. Comparison of plywoods production, export and import prices to its projected prices
The production prices as well as its projected prices have close values and it is sufficient
to say that this is reliable because it has an r-squared value of 0.8333 when inputted with an xvariable of time or year. The export prices changes through time while its projected prices show
a positively increasing line. Lastly, the import price is also varies through time while its
projected price is almost stagnant in the last 15 years.
PROJECTED PRICES
The projected prices of the forest products in the next five years are summarized below in
a table.
Table 3. Projected prices of log, lumber and plywood (2015-2019)
YEAR
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
PRODUCTION
LOG
LUMBER PLYWOOD
3241.05 3185.478476 17371.21
3238.617 3282.54063 17664.44
3236.184 3379.602783 17957.68
3233.752 3476.664937 18250.92
3231.319 3573.72709 18544.16
LOG
44763.60
48510.02
52256.43
56002.84
59749.26
EXPORT
LUMBER PLYWOOD
2888.02 36034.64
2695.21 37200.43
2502.39 38366.23
2309.58 39532.03
2116.77 40697.82
LOG
11670.54
12073.74
12476.93
12880.12
13283.31
IMPORT
LUMBER PLYWOOD
23512.43 25544.42
24194.07 25626.05
24875.71 25707.69
25557.35 25789.33
26238.99 25870.97
There will be an almost higher production values as projected compared to the last 15
years. In export, the log and plywood products will have a higher prices while the lumber will be
lowered in the next years. Lastly, the log prices will be lower while the lumber and plywood
prices will be higher in terms of import in the next five years.
GDP CONTRIBUTION AND DEMAND ANALYSIS
It has been recorded that the forestry sector contributed an average of 0.08 percent in the
total GDP of the Philippines from 2000-2014. Also, it has an average annual growth rate of 7.03
percent.
On the average, 44%, 54% and 52% of the variation in the demand for log, lumber and
plywood respectively, can be explained by price and income, ceteris paribus. Furthermore, the
following are the interpretations for each forest products demand using regression analysis:
Log:
Price positively affects demand. As price increases by 1 peso, demand increases by 17.63
Income postively affects demand. As income increases by 1 thousand pesos, demand increases
by 0.13
Lumber:
Price positively affects demand. As price increases by 1 peso, demand increases by 38.36
Income postively affects demand. As income increases by 1 thousand pesos, demand increases
by 0.05
Plywood:
Price positively affects demand. As price increases by 1 peso, demand increases by 8.69
Income negatively affects demand. As income increases by 1 thousand pesos, demand decreases
by 0.05
V1. REFERENCES
At a Glance on Philippine Forest (2015). Retrieved from
https://www.senate.gov.ph/.../SEPO/AAG%20on%20Philippine%20Forest_Final.pdf
Kangas K. and Baudin, A. (2003) Modelling and Projections of Forest
Products Demand, Supply and Trade in
Europe. Retrieved from https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/timber/docs/efsos/03-sept/dp30.pdf
Philippine Statistical Authority (http://psa.gov.ph/)
Philippine Forestry Statistics (http://forestry.denr.gov.ph/index.php/statistics/philippinesforestry-statistics)
Pulhin, J.M. (2002). Trends in Forest Policy in the Philippines. Retrieved from
aboutphilippines.ph/files/Trends-in-Forest-Policy-Philippines.pdf
Timber and Timber Products Trade Flow Study of the Philippines ITTO PD 133/02 Rev.3 (M).
Retrieved from www.itto.int/files/user/pdf/publications/.../pd138-02%20rev3(M)%20e.pdf
https://www.boundless.com/marketing/textbooks/boundless-marketing-textbook/marketingchannels-11/marketing-channels-in-the-supply-chain-76/the-significance-of-marketing-channels386-7303/
www.fao.org
FRM 119 Lecture Materials
Appendix
YEAR
PRODUCTION
PRICE
PROJECTED
3435.135
3277.538914
3579.629
2001
2002 3397.692
3275.106294
3058.189
3270.241052
3226.503
3248.086
3138.729
2914.182
2934.887
2925.268
3267.808431
3265.37581
3262.943189
3260.510568
3258.077947
3255.645326
2000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
3272.673673
EXPORT
PRICE
PROJECTED
1359.809
11432.58685
1580.774
7686.174094
2218.955 -3939.76134
2710.165
193.3485857
1681.197 3553.064169
4131.413 7299.476923
3420.953 11045.88968
3461.13 14792.30243
2843.458 18538.71519
2858.232 22285.12794
PRICE
IMPORT
PROJECTED
4106.857
5622.678543
4135.009
6025.869629
4827.098
6429.060716
5043.912
6832.251802
5656.635
7970.27
15541.16
11865.63
10633.56
9479.484
7235.442889
7638.633975
8041.825062
8445.016148
8848.207234
9251.398321
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3354.564
3256.652
3596.299
4371.904
2469.938
3253.212705
3250.780085
3248.347464
3245.914843
3243.482222
1777.322
2093.467
76434.13
104969.5
10344.08
26031.54069
29777.95345
33524.3662
37270.77896
41017.19171
11832.05
9302.149
9630.634
7791.694
8859.099
9654.589407
10057.78049
10460.97158
10864.16267
11267.35375
YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
PRODUCTION
PRICE
PROJECTED
1695.536 1729.546174
2089.89 1826.608327
1923.617 1923.670481
1896.945 2020.732634
2057.391 2117.794788
2090.009 2214.856941
2227.223 2311.919095
2540.164 2408.981248
2527.093 2506.043402
2542.184 2603.105555
2718.936 2700.167709
2853.411 2797.229862
2841.536 2894.292016
2934.31 2991.354169
3196.474 3088.416323
EXPORT
PRICE
PROJECTED
7533.938 5780.241567
7749.919 5587.42705
5822.134 5394.612533
5520.538 5201.798016
4400.488 5008.983499
3596.236 4816.168982
3680.685 4623.354466
3182.021 4430.539949
2399.974 4237.725432
1565.524 4044.910915
1266.781 3852.096398
2613.474 3659.281881
3021.298 3466.467364
13110.92 3273.652847
994.1661 3080.83833
IMPORT
PRICE
PROJECTED
9838.165
13287.8439
11863.75
13969.4832
13365.93
14651.1225
16899.8
15332.7618
20082.14 16014.40109
17891.71 16696.04039
18805.07 17377.67969
23993.36 18059.31898
17156.71 18740.95828
17649.35 19422.59758
18231.16 20104.23688
20932.26 20785.87617
19109.57 21467.51547
21748.93 22149.15477
23321.87 22830.79407
YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
PRODUCTION
PRICE
PROJECTED
13673.33 12972.63412
13569.16 13265.87224
13983.02 13559.11037
13681.39 13852.3485
13883.07 14145.58662
14583.75 14438.82475
14188.78 14732.06288
14072.12
15025.301
14888.3 15318.53913
15424.82 15611.77726
14817.19 15905.01538
16532.03 16198.25351
17445.86 16491.49164
17122.57 16784.72976
17514.12 17077.96789
EXPORT
PRICE
PROJECTED
45431.23 18547.67932
2039.708 19713.47643
22329.61 20879.27355
17816.62 22045.07067
20636.03 23210.86778
25060.66 24376.6649
24679.61 25542.46202
18471.83 26708.25913
21937.38 27874.05625
31644.09 29039.85337
28124.02 30205.65048
26351.69 31371.4476
35686.58 32537.24472
40037.38 33703.04183
40377.43 34868.83895
IMPORT
PRICE
PROJECTED
27816.58 24319.85105
25504.85 24401.48871
15768.87 24483.12637
22580.18 24564.76403
31018.3
24646.40169
20503.06 24728.03935
33630.83 24809.67701
24999.88 24891.31467
15389.26 24972.95233
18213.82 25054.58999
29175.79 25136.22765
35260.42 25217.86531
32008.37 25299.50297
23463.7
25381.14063
18035.8
25462.77829
Qty
800,000
571,000
403,000
506,000
768,000
841,000
1,035,000
881,000
815,000
801,000
557,000
871,000
862,000
1,166,000
1,094,000
Qty
150,000
197,000
163,000
246,000
339,000
288,000
432,000
362,000
358,000
304,000
377,000
370,000
218,000
450,000
496,000
PLYWOOD
Qty
Price
Income
Qhat
286,000 13673.33467 3580714
345,345.45
292,000 13569.16304 3684340
339,515.95
350,000
351,000
386,000
314,000
317,000
281,000
235,000
253,000
276,000
298,000
297,000
199,000
164,000
13983.0152
13681.39432
13883.07294
14583.74568
14188.7845
14072.12343
14888.29636
15424.82087
14817.1919
16532.03132
17445.85646
17122.56763
17514.11673
3818667
4008469
4276941
4481279
4716231
5028288
5237101
5297240
5701539
5910201
6305229
6750079
7164017
336,727.63
325,087.57
314,081.18
310,457.43
295,860.88
280,017.76
277,184.72
278,987.66
254,495.87
259,476.87
248,642.79
224,694.03
208,424.21