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Tropical cyclone
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Hurricane)
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"Hurricane" redirects here. For other uses, see Hurricane (disambiguation).
Hurricane Isabel (2003) as seen from orbit during Expedition 7 of the International Space
Station. The eye, eyewall and surrounding rainbands characteristic of tropical cyclones are
clearly visible in this view from space.
A tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a large low-pressure center and numerous
thunderstorms that produce strong winds and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones feed on heat released
when moist air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapor contained in the moist air. They
are fueled by a different heat mechanism than other cyclonic windstorms such as nor'easters,
European windstorms, and polar lows, leading to their classification as "warm core" storm
systems. Tropical cyclones originate in the doldrums near the equator, about 10 away from it.
The term "tropical" refers to both the geographic origin of these systems, which form almost
exclusively in tropical regions of the globe, and their formation in maritime tropical air masses.
The term "cyclone" refers to such storms' cyclonic nature, with counterclockwise rotation in the
Northern Hemisphere and clockwise rotation in the Southern Hemisphere. Depending on its
location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by names such as hurricane, typhoon,
tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, and simply cyclone.
While tropical cyclones can produce extremely powerful winds and torrential rain, they are also
able to produce high waves and damaging storm surge as well as spawning tornadoes. They
develop over large bodies of warm water, and lose their strength if they move over land. This is
why coastal regions can receive significant damage from a tropical cyclone, while inland regions
are relatively safe from receiving strong winds. Heavy rains, however, can produce significant
flooding inland, and storm surges can produce extensive coastal flooding up to 40 kilometres
(25 mi) from the coastline. Although their effects on human populations can be devastating,
tropical cyclones can also relieve drought conditions. They also carry heat and energy away from
the tropics and transport it toward temperate latitudes, which makes them an important part of
the global atmospheric circulation mechanism. As a result, tropical cyclones help to maintain
equilibrium in the Earth's troposphere, and to maintain a relatively stable and warm temperature
worldwide.
Many tropical cyclones develop when the atmospheric conditions around a weak disturbance in
the atmosphere are favorable. The background environment is modulated by climatological
cycles and patterns such as the Madden-Julian oscillation, El Nio-Southern Oscillation, and the
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Others form when other types of cyclones acquire tropical
characteristics. Tropical systems are then moved by steering winds in the troposphere; if the
conditions remain favorable, the tropical disturbance intensifies, and can even develop an eye.
On the other end of the spectrum, if the conditions around the system deteriorate or the tropical
cyclone makes landfall, the system weakens and eventually dissipates. It is not possible to
artificially induce the dissipation of these systems with current technology.
Part of a series on
Tropical cyclones
Formation and naming[show]
Development
Structure
Naming
List of storm names
Effects[show]
Warnings and watches

Storm surge
Notable storms
Climatology and tracking[show]
Basins
RSMCs
Scales
Observation
Forecasting
Rainfall forecasting
Rainfall climatology
Historic lists[show]
historic
List of retired Atlantic hurricane names
List of retired Pacific hurricane names
List of retired Pacific typhoon names (JMA)
List of named tropical cyclones
List of historic tropical cyclone names
Tropical cyclones portal
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Contents
[hide]
1 Physical structure
1.1 Eye and center
1.2 Size
2 Mechanics
3 Major basins and related warning centers
4 Formation
4.1 Times
4.2 Factors
4.3 Locations
5 Movement and track
5.1 Steering winds
5.2 Coriolis effect
5.3 Interaction with the mid-latitude westerlies
5.4 Landfall
5.5 Multiple storm interaction
6 Dissipation
6.1 Factors
6.2 Artificial dissipation
7 Effects
8 Observation and forecasting
8.1 Observation
8.2 Forecasting
9 Classifications, terminology, and naming
9.1 Intensity classifications
9.1.1 Tropical depression
9.1.2 Tropical storm
9.1.3 Hurricane or typhoon
9.2 Origin of storm terms
9.3 Naming
10 Notable tropical cyclones
11 Changes due to El Nio-Southern Oscillation
12 Long-term activity trends
13 Global warming
14 Related cyclone types
15 Tropical cyclones in popular culture
16 See also
17 References
18 External links
[edit] Physical structure

See also: Eye (cyclone)
Structure of a tropical cyclone

All tropical cyclones are areas of low atmospheric pressure near the Earth's surface. The
pressures recorded at the centers of tropical cyclones are among the lowest that occur on Earth's
surface at sea level.[1] Tropical cyclones are characterized and driven by the release of large
amounts of latent heat of condensation, which occurs when moist air is carried upwards and its
water vapor condenses. This heat is distributed vertically around the center of the storm. Thus, at
any given altitude (except close to the surface, where water temperature dictates air temperature)
the environment inside the cyclone is warmer than its outer surroundings.[2]
[edit] Eye and center
A strong tropical cyclone will harbor an area of sinking air at the center of circulation. If this
area is strong enough, it can develop into a large "eye". Weather in the eye is normally calm and
free of clouds, although the sea may be extremely violent.[3] The eye is normally circular in
shape, and may range in size from 3 kilometres (1.9 mi) to 370 kilometres (230 mi) in diameter.
[4][5]
Intense, mature tropical cyclones can sometimes exhibit an outward curving of the eyewall's
top, making it resemble a football stadium; this phenomenon is thus sometimes referred to as the
stadium effect.[6]
There are other features that either surround the eye, or cover it. The central dense overcast is the
concentrated area of strong thunderstorm activity near the center of a tropical cyclone;[7] in
weaker tropical cyclones, the CDO may cover the center completely.[8] The eyewall is a circle of
strong thunderstorms that surrounds the eye; here is where the greatest wind speeds are found,
where clouds reach the highest, and precipitation is the heaviest. The heaviest wind damage
occurs where a tropical cyclone's eyewall passes over land.[3] Eyewall replacement cycles occur
naturally in intense tropical cyclones. When cyclones reach peak intensity they usually have an
eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 kilometres
(6.2 mi) to 25 kilometres (16 mi). Outer rainbands can organize into an outer ring of
thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and
angular momentum. When the inner eyewall weakens, the tropical cyclone weakens (in other
words, the maximum sustained winds weaken and the central pressure rises.) The outer eyewall
replaces the inner one completely at the end of the cycle. The storm can be of the same intensity
as it was previously or even stronger after the eyewall replacement cycle finishes. The storm may
strengthen again as it builds a new outer ring for the next eyewall replacement.[9]
Size descriptions of tropical cyclones
ROCI Type
Less than 2 degrees Very

latitude small/midget
2 to 3 degrees of latitude Small
3 to 6 degrees of latitude Medium/Average
6 to 8 degrees of latitude Large anti-dwarf

Over 8 degrees of latitude Very large[10]
[edit] Size
One measure of the size of a tropical cyclone is determined by measuring the distance from its
center of circulation to its outermost closed isobar, also known as its ROCI. If the radius is less
than two degrees of latitude or 222 kilometres (138 mi), then the cyclone is "very small" or a
"midget". A radius between 3 and 6 latitude degrees or 333 kilometres (207 mi) to
670 kilometres (420 mi) are considered "average-sized". "Very large" tropical cyclones have a
radius of greater than 8 degrees or 888 kilometres (552 mi).[10] Use of this measure has
objectively determined that tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific Ocean are the largest on
earth on average, with Atlantic tropical cyclones roughly half their size.[11] Other methods of
determining a tropical cyclone's size include measuring the radius of gale force winds and
measuring the radius at which its relative vorticity field decreases to 1105 s1 from its center.[12]
[13]
[edit] Mechanics
Tropical cyclones form when the energy released by the condensation of moisture in rising air
causes a positive feedback loop over warm ocean waters.[14]
A tropical cyclone's primary energy source is the release of the heat of condensation from water
vapor condensing at high altitudes, with solar heating being the initial source for evaporation.
Therefore, a tropical cyclone can be visualized as a giant vertical heat engine supported by
mechanics driven by physical forces such as the rotation and gravity of the Earth.[15] In another
way, tropical cyclones could be viewed as a special type of mesoscale convective complex,
which continues to develop over a vast source of relative warmth and moisture. While an initial
warm core system, such as an organized thunderstorm complex, is necessary for the formation of
a tropical cyclone, a large flux of energy is needed to lower atmospheric pressure more than a
few millibars (0.10 inch of mercury). The inflow of warmth and moisture from the underlying
ocean surface is critical for tropical cyclone strengthening.[16] A significant amount of the inflow
in the cyclone is in the lowest 1 kilometre (3,300 ft) of the atmosphere.[17]
Condensation leads to higher wind speeds, as a tiny fraction of the released energy is converted
into mechanical energy;[18] the faster winds and lower pressure associated with them in turn cause
increased surface evaporation and thus even more condensation. Much of the released energy
drives updrafts that increase the height of the storm clouds, speeding up condensation.[19] This
positive feedback loop continues for as long as conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone
development. Factors such as a continued lack of equilibrium in air mass distribution would also
give supporting energy to the cyclone. The rotation of the Earth causes the system to spin, an
effect known as the Coriolis effect, giving it a cyclonic characteristic and affecting the trajectory
of the storm.[20][21]
What primarily distinguishes tropical cyclones from other meteorological phenomena is deep
convection as a driving force.[22] Because convection is strongest in a tropical climate, it defines
the initial domain of the tropical cyclone. By contrast, mid-latitude cyclones draw their energy
mostly from pre-existing horizontal temperature gradients in the atmosphere.[22] To continue to
drive its heat engine, a tropical cyclone must remain over warm water, which provides the
needed atmospheric moisture to keep the positive feedback loop running. When a tropical
cyclone passes over land, it is cut off from its heat source and its strength diminishes rapidly.[23]
Chart displaying the drop in surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricanes Katrina
and Rita passed over
The passage of a tropical cyclone over the ocean can cause the upper layers of the ocean to cool
substantially, which can influence subsequent cyclone development. Cooling is primarily caused
by upwelling of cold water from deeper in the ocean because of the wind. The cooler water
causes the storm to weaken. This is a negative feedback process that causes the storms to weaken
over sea because of their own effects. Additional cooling may come in the form of cold water
from falling raindrops (this is because the atmosphere is cooler at higher altitudes). Cloud cover
may also play a role in cooling the ocean, by shielding the ocean surface from direct sunlight
before and slightly after the storm passage. All these effects can combine to produce a dramatic
drop in sea surface temperature over a large area in just a few days.[24]
Scientists at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research estimate that a tropical cyclone
releases heat energy at the rate of 50 to 200 exajoules (1018 J) per day,[19] equivalent to about
1 PW (1015 watt). This rate of energy release is equivalent to 70 times the world energy
consumption of humans and 200 times the worldwide electrical generating capacity, or to
exploding a 10-megaton nuclear bomb every 20 minutes.[19][25]
While the most obvious motion of clouds is toward the center, tropical cyclones also develop an
upper-level (high-altitude) outward flow of clouds. These originate from air that has released its
moisture and is expelled at high altitude through the "chimney" of the storm engine.[15] This
outflow produces high, thin cirrus clouds that spiral away from the center. The clouds are thin
enough for the sun to be visible through them. These high cirrus clouds may be the first signs of
an approaching tropical cyclone.[26]
[edit] Major basins and related warning centers
Main articles: Tropical cyclone basins, Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, and
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Basins and WMO Monitoring Institutions[27]
Basin Responsible RSMCs and TCWCs
North Atlantic National Hurricane Center (United States)

North-East Pacific National Hurricane Center (United States)
North-Central Pacific Central Pacific Hurricane Center (United States)
North-West Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency
North Indian Ocean India Meteorological Department
South-West Indian
Mto-France
Ocean
Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Australian region Meteorological and Geophysical Agency (Indonesia)
Papua New Guinea National Weather Service
Fiji Meteorological Service

Southern Pacific
Meteorological Service of New Zealand

: Indicates a Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
There are six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) worldwide. These
organizations are designated by the World Meteorological Organization and are responsible for
tracking and issuing bulletins, warnings, and advisories about tropical cyclones in their
designated areas of responsibility. Additionally, there are six Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers
(TCWCs) that provide information to smaller regions.[28] The RSMCs and TCWCs are not the
only organizations that provide information about tropical cyclones to the public. The Joint
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues advisories in all basins except the Northern Atlantic for
the purposes of the United States Government.[29] The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issues advisories and names for tropical
cyclones that approach the Philippines in the Northwestern Pacific to protect the life and
property of its citizens.[30] The Canadian Hurricane Center (CHC) issues advisories on hurricanes
and their remnants for Canadian citizens when they affect Canada.[31]
On 26 March 2004, Cyclone Catarina became the first recorded South Atlantic cyclone and
subsequently struck southern Brazil with winds equivalent to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale. As the cyclone formed outside the authority of another warning center,
Brazilian meteorologists initially treated the system as an extratropical cyclone, although
subsequently classified it as tropical.[32]
[edit] Formation
Main article: Tropical cyclogenesis
Map of the cumulative tracks of all tropical cyclones during the 19852005 time period. The
Pacific Ocean west of the International Date Line sees more tropical cyclones than any other
basin, while there is almost no activity in the Atlantic Ocean south of the Equator.
Map of all tropical cyclone tracks from 1945 to 2006. Equal-area projection.
Worldwide, tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer, when the difference between
temperatures aloft and sea surface temperatures is the greatest. However, each particular basin
has its own seasonal patterns. On a worldwide scale, May is the least active month, while
September is the most active whilst November is the only month with all the tropical cyclone
basins active.[33]
[edit] Times
In the Northern Atlantic Ocean, a distinct hurricane season occurs from June 1 to November 30,
sharply peaking from late August through September.[33] The statistical peak of the Atlantic
hurricane season is 10 September. The Northeast Pacific Ocean has a broader period of activity,
but in a similar time frame to the Atlantic.[34] The Northwest Pacific sees tropical cyclones year-
round, with a minimum in February and March and a peak in early September. In the North
Indian basin, storms are most common from April to December, with peaks in May and
November.[33] In the Southern Hemisphere, the tropical cyclone year begins on July 1 and runs all
year round and encompasses the tropical cyclone seasons which run from November 1 until the
end of April with peaks in mid-February to early March.[33][35]
Season lengths and seasonal averages[33][36]
Tropical Tropical Category 3+

Season Season
Basin Storms Cyclones TCs
start end
(>34 knots) (>63 knots) (>95 knots)
Northwest Pacific April January 26.7 16.9 8.5
South Indian November April 20.6 10.3 4.3

Northeast Pacific May November 16.3 9.0 4.1
North Atlantic June November 10.6 5.9 2.0
Australia Southwest
November April 9 4.8 1.9
Pacific
North Indian April December 5.4 2.2 0.4
[edit] Factors
Waves in the trade winds in the Atlantic Oceanareas of converging winds that move along the
same track as the prevailing windcreate instabilities in the atmosphere that may lead to the
formation of hurricanes.
The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully
understood.[37] While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may
occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water
temperatures of at least 26.5 C (79.7 F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 m (160 ft);[38]
waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain
convection and thunderstorms.[39] Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the
release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.[38] High humidity is needed,
especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the
atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop.[38] Low amounts of wind
shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation.[38] Tropical cyclones
generally need to form more than 555 km (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the
equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center
and creating a circulation.[38] Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of
disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.[38]
Low-latitude and low-level westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation
can create favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis by initiating tropical disturbances.[40]
[edit] Locations
Most tropical cyclones form in a worldwide band of thunderstorm activity called by several
names: the Intertropical Front (ITF), the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or the monsoon
trough.[41][42][43] Another important source of atmospheric instability is found in tropical waves,
which cause about 85% of intense tropical cyclones in the Atlantic ocean, and become most of
the tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin.[44][45][46]
Tropical cyclones move westward when equatorward of the subtropical ridge, intensifying as
they move. Most of these systems form between 10 and 30 degrees away of the equator, and
87% form no farther away than 20 degrees of latitude, north or south.[47][48] Because the Coriolis
effect initiates and maintains tropical cyclone rotation, tropical cyclones rarely form or move
within about 5 degrees of the equator, where the Coriolis effect is weakest.[47] However, it is
possible for tropical cyclones to form within this boundary as Tropical Storm Vamei did in 2001
and Cyclone Agni in 2004.[49][50]
[edit] Movement and track
[edit] Steering winds
See also: Prevailing winds
Although tropical cyclones are large systems generating enormous energy, their movements over
the Earth's surface are controlled by large-scale windsthe streams in the Earth's atmosphere.
The path of motion is referred to as a tropical cyclone's track and has been compared by Dr. Neil
Frank, former director of the National Hurricane Center, to "leaves carried along by a stream".[51]
Tropical systems, while generally located equatorward of the 20th parallel, are steered primarily
westward by the east-to-west winds on the equatorward side of the subtropical ridgea
persistent high pressure area over the world's oceans.[51] In the tropical North Atlantic and
Northeast Pacific oceans, trade windsanother name for the westward-moving wind currents
steer tropical waves westward from the African coast and towards the Caribbean Sea, North
America, and ultimately into the central Pacific ocean before the waves dampen out.[45] These
waves are the precursors to many tropical cyclones within this region.[44] In the Indian Ocean and
Western Pacific (both north and south of the equator), tropical cyclogenesis is strongly
influenced by the seasonal movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the monsoon
trough, rather than by easterly waves.[43] Tropical cyclones can also be steered by other systems,
such as other low pressure systems, high pressure systems, warm fronts, and cold fronts.
[edit] Coriolis effect
Infrared image of a powerful southern hemisphere cyclone, Monica, near peak intensity, showing
clockwise rotation due to the Coriolis effect
The Earth's rotation imparts an acceleration known as the Coriolis effect, Coriolis acceleration,
or colloquially, Coriolis force. This acceleration causes cyclonic systems to turn towards the
poles in the absence of strong steering currents.[52] The poleward portion of a tropical cyclone
contains easterly winds, and the Coriolis effect pulls them slightly more poleward. The westerly
winds on the equatorward portion of the cyclone pull slightly towards the equator, but, because
the Coriolis effect weakens toward the equator, the net drag on the cyclone is poleward. Thus,
tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere usually turn north (before being blown east), and
tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere usually turn south (before being blown east) when
no other effects counteract the Coriolis effect.[21]
The Coriolis effect also initiates cyclonic rotation, but it is not the driving force that brings this
rotation to high speeds that force is the heat of condensation.[19]
[edit] Interaction with the mid-latitude westerlies
See also: Westerlies
Storm track of Typhoon Ioke, showing recurvature off the Japanese coast in 2006
When a tropical cyclone crosses the subtropical ridge axis, its general track around the high-
pressure area is deflected significantly by winds moving towards the general low-pressure area to
its north. When the cyclone track becomes strongly poleward with an easterly component, the
cyclone has begun recurvature.[53] A typhoon moving through the Pacific Ocean towards Asia,
for example, will recurve offshore of Japan to the north, and then to the northeast, if the typhoon
encounters southwesterly winds (blowing northeastward) around a low-pressure system passing
over China or Siberia. Many tropical cyclones are eventually forced toward the northeast by
extratropical cyclones in this manner, which move from west to east to the north of the
subtropical ridge. An example of a tropical cyclone in recurvature was Typhoon Ioke in 2006,
which took a similar trajectory.[54]
[edit] Landfall
See also: List of notable tropical cyclones and Unusual areas of tropical cyclone formation
Officially, landfall is when a storm's center (the center of its circulation, not its edge) crosses the
coastline.[55] Storm conditions may be experienced on the coast and inland hours before landfall;
in fact, a tropical cyclone can launch its strongest winds over land, yet not make landfall; if this
occurs, then it is said that the storm made a direct hit on the coast.[55] As a result of the
narrowness of this definition, the landfall area experiences half of a land-bound storm by the
time the actual landfall occurs. For emergency preparedness, actions should be timed from when
a certain wind speed or intensity of rainfall will reach land, not from when landfall will occur.[55]
[edit] Multiple storm interaction
Main article: Fujiwhara effect
When two cyclones approach one another, their centers will begin orbiting cyclonically about a
point between the two systems. The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually
spiral into the center point and merge. When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger
vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it. This
phenomenon is called the Fujiwhara effect, after Sakuhei Fujiwhara.[56]
[edit] Dissipation
[edit] Factors
Tropical Storm Franklin, an example of a strongly sheared tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin
during 2005
A tropical cyclone can cease to have tropical characteristics through several different ways. One
such way is if it moves over land, thus depriving it of the warm water it needs to power itself,
quickly losing strength.[57] Most strong storms lose their strength very rapidly after landfall and
become disorganized areas of low pressure within a day or two, or evolve into extratropical
cyclones. While there is a chance a tropical cyclone could regenerate if it managed to get back
over open warm water, if it remains over mountains for even a short time, weakening will
accelerate.[58] Many storm fatalities occur in mountainous terrain, as the dying storm unleashes
torrential rainfall,[59] leading to deadly floods and mudslides, similar to those that happened with
Hurricane Mitch in 1998.[60] Additionally, dissipation can occur if a storm remains in the same
area of ocean for too long, mixing the upper 60 metres (200 ft) of water, dropping sea surface
temperatures more than 5 C (9 F).[61] Without warm surface water, the storm cannot survive.[62]
A tropical cyclone can dissipate when it moves over waters significantly below 26.5 C
(79.7 F). This will cause the storm to lose its tropical characteristics (i.e. thunderstorms near the
center and warm core) and become a remnant low pressure area, which can persist for several
days. This is the main dissipation mechanism in the Northeast Pacific ocean.[63] Weakening or
dissipation can occur if it experiences vertical wind shear, causing the convection and heat
engine to move away from the center; this normally ceases development of a tropical cyclone.[64]
Additionally, its interaction with the main belt of the Westerlies, by means of merging with a
nearby frontal zone, can cause tropical cyclones to evolve into extratropical cyclones. This
transition can take 13 days.[65] Even after a tropical cyclone is said to be extratropical or
dissipated, it can still have tropical storm force (or occasionally hurricane/typhoon force) winds
and drop several inches of rainfall. In the Pacific ocean and Atlantic ocean, such tropical-derived
cyclones of higher latitudes can be violent and may occasionally remain at hurricane or typhoon-
force wind speeds when they reach the west coast of North America. These phenomena can also
affect Europe, where they are known as European windstorms; Hurricane Iris's extratropical
remnants are an example of such a windstorm from 1995.[66] Additionally, a cyclone can merge
with another area of low pressure, becoming a larger area of low pressure. This can strengthen
the resultant system, although it may no longer be a tropical cyclone.[64] Studies in the 2000s
have given rise to the hypothesis that large amounts of dust reduce the strength of tropical
cyclones.[67]
[edit] Artificial dissipation
In the 1960s and 1970s, the United States government attempted to weaken hurricanes through
Project Stormfury by seeding selected storms with silver iodide. It was thought that the seeding
would cause supercooled water in the outer rainbands to freeze, causing the inner eyewall to
collapse and thus reducing the winds.[68] The winds of Hurricane Debbiea hurricane seeded in
Project Stormfurydropped as much as 31%, but Debbie regained its strength after each of two
seeding forays.[69] In an earlier episode in 1947, disaster struck when a hurricane east of
Jacksonville, Florida promptly changed its course after being seeded, and smashed into
Savannah, Georgia.[70] Because there was so much uncertainty about the behavior of these
storms, the federal government would not approve seeding operations unless the hurricane had a
less than 10% chance of making landfall within 48 hours, greatly reducing the number of
possible test storms. The project was dropped after it was discovered that eyewall replacement
cycles occur naturally in strong hurricanes, casting doubt on the result of the earlier attempts.
Today, it is known that silver iodide seeding is not likely to have an effect because the amount of
supercooled water in the rainbands of a tropical cyclone is too low.[71]
Other approaches have been suggested over time, including cooling the water under a tropical
cyclone by towing icebergs into the tropical oceans.[72] Other ideas range from covering the
ocean in a substance that inhibits evaporation,[73] dropping large quantities of ice into the eye at
very early stages of development (so that the latent heat is absorbed by the ice, instead of being
converted to kinetic energy that would feed the positive feedback loop),[72] or blasting the
cyclone apart with nuclear weapons.[18] Project Cirrus even involved throwing dry ice on a
cyclone.[74] These approaches all suffer from one flaw above many others: tropical cyclones are
simply too large and short-lived for any of the weakening techniques to be practical.[75]
[edit] Effects
The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in Gulfport, Mississippi.
Main article: Effects of tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclones out at sea cause large waves, heavy rain, and high winds, disrupting
international shipping and, at times, causing shipwrecks.[76] Tropical cyclones stir up water,
leaving a cool wake behind them, which causes the region to be less favourable for subsequent
tropical cyclones.[24] On land, strong winds can damage or destroy vehicles, buildings, bridges,
and other outside objects, turning loose debris into deadly flying projectiles. The storm surge, or
the increase in sea level due to the cyclone, is typically the worst effect from landfalling tropical
cyclones, historically resulting in 90% of tropical cyclone deaths.[77] The broad rotation of a
landfalling tropical cyclone, and vertical wind shear at its periphery, spawns tornadoes.
Tornadoes can also be spawned as a result of eyewall mesovortices, which persist until landfall.
[78]
Over the past two centuries, tropical cyclones have been responsible for the deaths of about
1.9 million people worldwide. Large areas of standing water caused by flooding lead to
infection, as well as contributing to mosquito-borne illnesses. Crowded evacuees in shelters
increase the risk of disease propagation.[79] Tropical cyclones significantly interrupt
infrastructure, leading to power outages, bridge destruction, and the hampering of reconstruction
efforts.[79][80]
Although cyclones take an enormous toll in lives and personal property, they may be important
factors in the precipitation regimes of places they impact, as they may bring much-needed
precipitation to otherwise dry regions.[81] Tropical cyclones also help maintain the global heat
balance by moving warm, moist tropical air to the middle latitudes and polar regions.[82] The
storm surge and winds of hurricanes may be destructive to human-made structures, but they also
stir up the waters of coastal estuaries, which are typically important fish breeding locales.
Tropical cyclone destruction spurs redevelopment, greatly increasing local property values.[83]
[edit] Observation and forecasting
[edit] Observation
Main article: Tropical cyclone observation
Sunset view of Hurricane Isidore's rainbands photographed at 7,000 feet (2,100 m)
Intense tropical cyclones pose a particular observation challenge, as they are a dangerous oceanic
phenomenon, and weather stations, being relatively sparse, are rarely available on the site of the
storm itself. Surface observations are generally available only if the storm is passing over an
island or a coastal area, or if there is a nearby ship. Usually, real-time measurements are taken in
the periphery of the cyclone, where conditions are less catastrophic and its true strength cannot
be evaluated. For this reason, there are teams of meteorologists that move into the path of
tropical cyclones to help evaluate their strength at the point of landfall.[84]
Tropical cyclones far from land are tracked by weather satellites capturing visible and infrared
images from space, usually at half-hour to quarter-hour intervals. As a storm approaches land, it
can be observed by land-based Doppler radar. Radar plays a crucial role around landfall by
showing a storm's location and intensity every several minutes.[85]
In-situ measurements, in real-time, can be taken by sending specially equipped reconnaissance
flights into the cyclone. In the Atlantic basin, these flights are regularly flown by United States
government hurricane hunters.[86] The aircraft used are WC-130 Hercules and WP-3D Orions,
both four-engine turboprop cargo aircraft. These aircraft fly directly into the cyclone and take
direct and remote-sensing measurements. The aircraft also launch GPS dropsondes inside the
cyclone. These sondes measure temperature, humidity, pressure, and especially winds between
flight level and the ocean's surface. A new era in hurricane observation began when a remotely
piloted Aerosonde, a small drone aircraft, was flown through Tropical Storm Ophelia as it passed
Virginia's Eastern Shore during the 2005 hurricane season. A similar mission was also completed
successfully in the western Pacific ocean. This demonstrated a new way to probe the storms at
low altitudes that human pilots seldom dare.[87]
A general decrease in error trends in tropical cyclone path prediction is evident since the 1970s
[edit] Forecasting
See also: Tropical cyclone track forecasting, Tropical cyclone prediction model, and Tropical
cyclone rainfall forecasting
Because of the forces that affect tropical cyclone tracks, accurate track predictions depend on
determining the position and strength of high- and low-pressure areas, and predicting how those
areas will change during the life of a tropical system. The deep layer mean flow, or average wind
through the depth of the troposphere, is considered the best tool in determining track direction
and speed. If storms are significantly sheared, use of wind speed measurements at a lower
altitude, such as at the 700 hPa pressure surface (3,000 metres/9,800 feet above sea level) will
produce better predictions. Tropical forecasters also consider smoothing out short-term wobbles
of the storm as it allows them to determine a more accurate long-term trajectory.[88] High-speed
computers and sophisticated simulation software allow forecasters to produce computer models
that predict tropical cyclone tracks based on the future position and strength of high- and low-
pressure systems. Combining forecast models with increased understanding of the forces that act
on tropical cyclones, as well as with a wealth of data from Earth-orbiting satellites and other
sensors, scientists have increased the accuracy of track forecasts over recent decades.[89]
However, scientists are not as skillful at predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones.[90] The lack
of improvement in intensity forecasting is attributed to the complexity of tropical systems and an
incomplete understanding of factors that affect their development.
[edit] Classifications, terminology, and naming
[edit] Intensity classifications
Main article: Tropical cyclone scales
Three tropical cyclones at different stages of development. The weakest (left) demonstrates only
the most basic circular shape. A stronger storm (top right) demonstrates spiral banding and
increased centralization, while the strongest (lower right) has developed an eye.
Tropical cyclones are classified into three main groups, based on intensity: tropical depressions,
tropical storms, and a third group of more intense storms, whose name depends on the region.
For example, if a tropical storm in the Northwestern Pacific reaches hurricane-strength winds on
the Beaufort scale, it is referred to as a typhoon; if a tropical storm passes the same benchmark in
the Northeast Pacific Basin, or in the Atlantic, it is called a hurricane.[55] Neither "hurricane" nor
"typhoon" is used in either the Southern Hemisphere or the Indian Ocean. In these basins, storms
of tropical nature are referred to simply as "cyclones".
Additionally, as indicated in the table below, each basin uses a separate system of terminology,
making comparisons between different basins difficult. In the Pacific Ocean, hurricanes from the
Central North Pacific sometimes cross the International Date Line into the Northwest Pacific,
becoming typhoons (such as Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke in 2006); on rare occasions, the reverse
will occur.[91] It should also be noted that typhoons with sustained winds greater than 67 metres
per second (130 kn) or 150 miles per hour (240 km/h) are called Super Typhoons by the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center.[92]
[edit] Tropical depression
A tropical depression is an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined,
closed surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of less than 17 metres per second
(33 kn) or 39 miles per hour (63 km/h). It has no eye and does not typically have the organization
or the spiral shape of more powerful storms. However, it is already a low-pressure system, hence
the name "depression".[15] The practice of the Philippines is to name tropical depressions from
their own naming convention when the depressions are within the Philippines' area of
responsibility.[93]
[edit] Tropical storm
A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface
circulation and maximum sustained winds between 17 metres per second (33 kn) (39 miles per
hour (63 km/h)) and 32 metres per second (62 kn) (73 miles per hour (117 km/h)). At this point,
the distinctive cyclonic shape starts to develop, although an eye is not usually present.
Government weather services, other than the Philippines, first assign names to systems that reach
this intensity (thus the term named storm).[15]
[edit] Hurricane or typhoon
A hurricane or typhoon (sometimes simply referred to as a tropical cyclone, as opposed to a
depression or storm) is a system with sustained winds of at least 33 metres per second (64 kn) or
74 miles per hour (119 km/h).[15] A cyclone of this intensity tends to develop an eye, an area of
relative calm (and lowest atmospheric pressure) at the center of circulation. The eye is often
visible in satellite images as a small, circular, cloud-free spot. Surrounding the eye is the
eyewall, an area about 16 kilometres (9.9 mi) to 80 kilometres (50 mi) wide in which the
strongest thunderstorms and winds circulate around the storm's center. Maximum sustained
winds in the strongest tropical cyclones have been estimated at about 85 metres per second
(165 kn) or 195 miles per hour (314 km/h).[94]
[hide]Tropical Cyclone Classifications (all winds are 10-minute averages)[95][96]
NE Pacific
10-minute &
N Indian SW Indian NW NW
Beaufort sustained Australia SW Pacific N Atlantic
Ocean Ocean Pacific Pacific
scale winds BOM FMS NHC,
IMD MF JMA JTWC
(knots) CHC &
CPHC
<28 knots Tropical Tropical Tropical
Trop.
06 (32 mph; Depression Low Depression Depression
Disturbance
52 km/h)
7 2829 Deep Depression Tropical Tropical
knots (32 Depression Depression Depression
33 mph;
5254 km/
h)
3033 Tropical Tropical
knots (35 Storm Storm
38 mph;
5661 km/
h)
3447
knots (39 Moderate Tropical Tropical
Cyclonic Tropical
89 54 mph; Tropical Cyclone Cyclone
Storm Storm
6387 km/ Storm (1) (1)
h)
4855
knots (55
10 63 mph;
89102 km
/h) Severe Severe Tropical Tropical Severe
Cyclonic Tropical Cyclone Cyclone Tropical
5663 Storm Storm (2) (2) Storm
knots (64
11 72 mph;
104117 k
m/h) Hurricane
12 6472 Very Typhoon (1)
knots (74 Severe
83 mph; Cyclonic
119133 k Storm Severe Severe
m/h) Tropical Tropical
7385 Cyclone Cyclone
knots (84 (3) (3)
Tropical Hurricane
98 mph;
Cyclone (2)
135157 k
m/h)
8689
knots (99
102 mph; Typhoon
159165 k
m/h) Major
Hurricane
9099 (3)
Severe Severe
knots
Tropical Tropical
(100110
Cyclone Cyclone
mph; 170
(4) (4)
180 km/h)
100106 Major
knots Intense Hurricane
(120120 Tropical (4)
mph; 190 Cyclone
200 km/h)
107114 Severe Severe
knots Tropical Tropical
(123131 Cyclone Cyclone
mph; 198 (5) (5)
211 km/h)
115119 Very Super
knots Intense Typhoon
(132137 Tropical
mph; 213 Cyclone
220 km/h)
>120 knots Super Major
(140 mph; Cyclonic Hurricane
220 km/h) Storm (5)
[edit] Origin of storm terms
Taipei 101 endures a typhoon in 2005

The word typhoon, which is used today in the Northwest Pacific, may be derived from Urdu,
Persian and Arabic fn (), which in turn originates from Greek tuphn (), a monster
in Greek mythology responsible for hot winds.[97] The related Portuguese word tufo, used in
Portuguese for typhoons, is also derived from Greek tuphn.[98] It is also similar to Chinese
"dafeng" ("daifung" in Cantonese) ( literally big winds), which may explain why
"typhoon" came to be used for East Asian cyclones.[citation needed]
The word hurricane, used in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, is derived from the name
of a native Caribbean Amerindian storm god, Huracan, via Spanish huracn.[99] (Huracan is also
the source of the word Orcan, another word for the European windstorm. These events should
not be confused.) Huracan became the Spanish term for hurricanes.
[edit] Naming
Main articles: Tropical cyclone naming and Lists of tropical cyclone names
Storms reaching tropical storm strength were initially given names to eliminate confusion when
there are multiple systems in any individual basin at the same time, which assists in warning
people of the coming storm.[100] In most cases, a tropical cyclone retains its name throughout its
life; however, under special circumstances, tropical cyclones may be renamed while active.
These names are taken from lists that vary from region to region and are usually drafted a few
years ahead of time. The lists are decided on, depending on the regions, either by committees of
the World Meteorological Organization (called primarily to discuss many other issues), or by
national weather offices involved in the forecasting of the storms. Each year, the names of
particularly destructive storms (if there are any) are "retired" and new names are chosen to take
their place.
[edit] Notable tropical cyclones
Main articles: List of notable tropical cyclones, List of Atlantic hurricanes, and List of Pacific
hurricanes
Tropical cyclones that cause extreme destruction are rare, although when they occur, they can
cause great amounts of damage or thousands of fatalities. The 1970 Bhola cyclone is the
deadliest tropical cyclone on record, killing more than 300,000 people[101] and potentially as
many as 1 million[102] after striking the densely populated Ganges Delta region of Bangladesh on
13 November 1970. Its powerful storm surge was responsible for the high death toll.[101] The
North Indian cyclone basin has historically been the deadliest basin.[79][103] Elsewhere, Typhoon
Nina killed nearly 100,000 in China in 1975 due to a 100-year flood that caused 62 dams
including the Banqiao Dam to fail.[104] The Great Hurricane of 1780 is the deadliest Atlantic
hurricane on record, killing about 22,000 people in the Lesser Antilles.[105] A tropical cyclone
does need not be particularly strong to cause memorable damage, primarily if the deaths are from
rainfall or mudslides. Tropical Storm Thelma in November 1991 killed thousands in the
Philippines,[106] while in 1982, the unnamed tropical depression that eventually became Hurricane
Paul killed around 1,000 people in Central America.[107]
Hurricane Katrina is estimated as the costliest tropical cyclone worldwide,[108] causing
$81.2 billion in property damage (2008 USD)[109] with overall damage estimates exceeding
$100 billion (2005 USD).[108] Katrina killed at least 1,836 people after striking Louisiana and
Mississippi as a major hurricane in August 2005.[109] Hurricane Andrew is the second most
destructive tropical cyclone in U.S history, with damages totaling $40.7 billion (2008 USD), and
with damage costs at $31.5 billion (2008 USD), Hurricane Ike is the third most destructive
tropical cyclone in U.S history. The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 is the deadliest natural disaster
in the United States, killing an estimated 6,000 to 12,000 people in Galveston, Texas.[110]
Hurricane Mitch caused more than 10, 000 fatalities in Latin America. Hurricane Iniki in 1992
was the most powerful storm to strike Hawaii in recorded history, hitting Kauai as a Category 4
hurricane, killing six people, and causing U.S. $3 billion in damage.[111] Other destructive Eastern
Pacific hurricanes include Pauline and Kenna, both causing severe damage after striking Mexico
as major hurricanes.[112][113] In March 2004, Cyclone Gafilo struck northeastern Madagascar as a
powerful cyclone, killing 74, affecting more than 200,000, and becoming the worst cyclone to
affect the nation for more than 20 years.[114]
gito
The relative sizes of Typhoon Tip, Cyclone Tracy, and the Contiguous United States
The most intense storm on record was Typhoon Tip in the northwestern Pacific Ocean in 1979,
which reached a minimum pressure of 870 mbar (25.69 inHg) and maximum sustained wind
speeds of 165 knots (85 m/s) or 190 miles per hour (310 km/h).[115] Tip, however, does not solely
hold the record for fastest sustained winds in a cyclone. Typhoon Keith in the Pacific and
Hurricanes Camille and Allen in the North Atlantic currently share this record with Tip.[116]
Camille was the only storm to actually strike land while at that intensity, making it, with
165 knots (85 m/s) or 190 miles per hour (310 km/h) sustained winds and 183 knots (94 m/s) or
210 miles per hour (340 km/h) gusts, the strongest tropical cyclone on record at landfall.[117]
Typhoon Nancy in 1961 had recorded wind speeds of 185 knots (95 m/s) or 215 miles per hour
(346 km/h), but recent research indicates that wind speeds from the 1940s to the 1960s were
gauged too high, and this is no longer considered the storm with the highest wind speeds on
record.[94] Similarly, a surface-level gust caused by Typhoon Paka on Guam was recorded at
205 knots (105 m/s) or 235 miles per hour (378 km/h). Had it been confirmed, it would be the
strongest non-tornadic wind ever recorded on the Earth's surface, but the reading had to be
discarded since the anemometer was damaged by the storm.[118]
In addition to being the most intense tropical cyclone on record, Tip was the largest cyclone on
record, with tropical storm-force winds 2,170 kilometres (1,350 mi) in diameter. The smallest
storm on record, Tropical Storm Marco, formed during October 2008, and made landfall in
Veracruz. Marco generated tropical storm-force winds only 37 kilometres (23 mi) in diameter.
[119]
Hurricane John is the longest-lasting tropical cyclone on record, lasting 31 days in 1994. Before
the advent of satellite imagery in 1961, however, many tropical cyclones were underestimated in
their durations.[120] John is the second longest-tracked tropical cyclone in the Northern
Hemisphere on record, behind Typhoon Ophelia of 1960, which had a path of 8,500 miles
(12,500 km). Reliable data for Southern Hemisphere cyclones is unavailable.[121]
[edit] Changes due to El Nio-Southern Oscillation
See also: El Nio-Southern Oscillation
Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move
poleward past the ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the Westerlies.[122] When the
subtropical ridge position shifts due to El Nino, so will the preferred tropical cyclone tracks.
Areas west of Japan and Korea tend to experience much fewer September-November tropical
cyclone impacts during El Nio and neutral years. During El Nio years, the break in the
subtropical ridge tends to lie near 130E which would favor the Japanese archipelago.[123] During
El Nio years, Guam's chance of a tropical cyclone impact is one-third of the long term average.
[124]
The tropical Atlantic ocean experiences depressed activity due to increased vertical wind
shear across the region during El Nio years.[125] During La Nia years, the formation of tropical
cyclones, along with the subtropical ridge position, shifts westward across the western Pacific
ocean, which increases the landfall threat to China.[123]
[edit] Long-term activity trends
Atlantic Multidecadal Cycle since 1950, using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Timeseries, 18562009

See also: Atlantic hurricane reanalysis
While the number of storms in the Atlantic has increased since 1995, there is no obvious global
trend; the annual number of tropical cyclones worldwide remains about 87 10. However, the
ability of climatologists to make long-term data analysis in certain basins is limited by the lack of
reliable historical data in some basins, primarily in the Southern Hemisphere.[126] In spite of that,
there is some evidence that the intensity of hurricanes is increasing. Kerry Emanuel stated,
"Records of hurricane activity worldwide show an upswing of both the maximum wind speed in
and the duration of hurricanes. The energy released by the average hurricane (again considering
all hurricanes worldwide) seems to have increased by around 70% in the past 30 years or so,
corresponding to about a 15% increase in the maximum wind speed and a 60% increase in storm
lifetime."[127]
Atlantic storms are becoming more destructive financially, since five of the ten most expensive
storms in United States history have occurred since 1990. According to the World
Meteorological Organization, recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has
largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal
regions.[128] Pielke et al. (2008) normalized mainland U.S. hurricane damage from 19002005 to
2005 values and found no remaining trend of increasing absolute damage. The 1970s and 1980s
were notable because of the extremely low amounts of damage compared to other decades. The
decade 19962005 was the second most damaging among the past 11 decades, with only the
decade 19261935 surpassing its costs. The most damaging single storm is the 1926 Miami
hurricane, with $157 billion of normalized damage.[129]
Often in part because of the threat of hurricanes, many coastal regions had sparse population
between major ports until the advent of automobile tourism; therefore, the most severe portions
of hurricanes striking the coast may have gone unmeasured in some instances. The combined
effects of ship destruction and remote landfall severely limit the number of intense hurricanes in
the official record before the era of hurricane reconnaissance aircraft and satellite meteorology.
Although the record shows a distinct increase in the number and strength of intense hurricanes,
therefore, experts regard the early data as suspect.[130]
The number and strength of Atlantic hurricanes may undergo a 5070 year cycle, also known as
the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Nyberg et al. reconstructed Atlantic major hurricane
activity back to the early 18th century and found five periods averaging 35 major hurricanes per
year and lasting 4060 years, and six other averaging 1.52.5 major hurricanes per year and
lasting 1020 years. These periods are associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.
Throughout, a decadal oscillation related to solar irradiance was responsible for
enhancing/dampening the number of major hurricanes by 12 per year.[131]
Although more common since 1995, few above-normal hurricane seasons occurred during 1970
94.[132] Destructive hurricanes struck frequently from 192660, including many major New
England hurricanes. Twenty-one Atlantic tropical storms formed in 1933, a record only recently
exceeded in 2005, which saw 28 storms. Tropical hurricanes occurred infrequently during the
seasons of 190025; however, many intense storms formed during 187099. During the 1887
season, 19 tropical storms formed, of which a record 4 occurred after 1 November and 11
strengthened into hurricanes. Few hurricanes occurred in the 1840s to 1860s; however, many
struck in the early 19th century, including a 1821 storm that made a direct hit on New York City.
Some historical weather experts say these storms may have been as high as Category 4 in
strength.[133]
These active hurricane seasons predated satellite coverage of the Atlantic basin. Before the
satellite era began in 1960, tropical storms or hurricanes went undetected unless a reconnaissance
aircraft encountered one, a ship reported a voyage through the storm, or a storm hit land in a
populated area.[130] The official record, therefore, could miss storms in which no ship experienced
gale-force winds, recognized it as a tropical storm (as opposed to a high-latitude extra-tropical
cyclone, a tropical wave, or a brief squall), returned to port, and reported the experience.
Proxy records based on paleotempestological research have revealed that major hurricane
activity along the Gulf of Mexico coast varies on timescales of centuries to millennia.[134][135] Few
major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast during 30001400 BC and again during the most recent
millennium. These quiescent intervals were separated by a hyperactive period during 1400 BC
and 1000 AD, when the Gulf coast was struck frequently by catastrophic hurricanes and their
landfall probabilities increased by 35 times. This millennial-scale variability has been attributed
to long-term shifts in the position of the Azores High,[135] which may also be linked to changes in
the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation.[136]
According to the Azores High hypothesis, an anti-phase pattern is expected to exist between the
Gulf of Mexico coast and the Atlantic coast. During the quiescent periods, a more northeasterly
position of the Azores High would result in more hurricanes being steered towards the Atlantic
coast. During the hyperactive period, more hurricanes were steered towards the Gulf coast as the
Azores High was shifted to a more southwesterly position near the Caribbean. Such a
displacement of the Azores High is consistent with paleoclimatic evidence that shows an abrupt
onset of a drier climate in Haiti around 3200 14C years BP,[137] and a change towards more humid
conditions in the Great Plains during the late-Holocene as more moisture was pumped up the
Mississippi Valley through the Gulf coast. Preliminary data from the northern Atlantic coast
seem to support the Azores High hypothesis. A 3000-year proxy record from a coastal lake in
Cape Cod suggests that hurricane activity increased significantly during the past 5001000 years,
just as the Gulf coast was amid a quiescent period of the last millennium.
[edit] Global warming
See also: Effects of global warming
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory performed a simulation to determine if there is a statistical trend in the frequency or
strength of tropical cyclones over time. The simulation concluded "the strongest hurricanes in the
present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the
earth's climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere".[138]
In an article in Nature, Kerry Emanuel stated that potential hurricane destructiveness, a measure
combining hurricane strength, duration, and frequency, "is highly correlated with tropical sea
surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multidecadal
oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming". Emanuel predicted "a
substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century".[139] In more recent
work published by Emanuel (in the March 2008 issue of the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society), he states that new climate modeling data indicates global warming
should reduce the global frequency of hurricanes.[140] The new work suggests that, even in a
dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during
the next two centuries.[141]
Similarly, P.J. Webster and others published an article in Science examining the "changes in
tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity" over the past 35 years, the period when satellite
data has been available. Their main finding was although the number of cyclones decreased
throughout the planet excluding the north Atlantic Ocean, there was a great increase in the
number and proportion of very strong cyclones.[142]
The strength of the reported Costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricanes
effect is surprising in light of Total estimated property damage, adjusted for wealth normalization[129]
modeling studies[143] that Rank Hurricane Season Cost (2005 USD)
predict only a one half
category increase in storm 1 Miami 1926 $157 billion
intensity as a result of a ~2 C 2 Galveston 1900 $99.4 billion
(3.6 F) global warming.
Such a response would have 3 Katrina 2005 $81.0 billion
predicted only a ~10% 4 Galveston 1915 $68.0 billion
increase in Emanuel's 5 Andrew 1992 $55.8 billion
potential destructiveness
index during the 20th century 6 New England 1938 $39.2 billion
rather than the ~75120% 7 CubaFlorida 1944 $38.7 billion
increase he reported.[139]
Secondly, after adjusting for 8 Okeechobee 1928 $33.6 billion
changes in population and 9 Donna 1960 $26.8 billion
inflation, and despite a more 10 Camille 1969 $21.2 billion
than 100% increase in
Emanuel's potential Main article: List of costliest Atlantic hurricanes
destructiveness index, no
statistically significant increase in the monetary damages resulting from Atlantic hurricanes has
been found.[129][144]
Sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures are considered vital to the development of tropical
cyclones.[38] Although neither study can directly link hurricanes with global warming, the
increase in sea surface temperatures is believed to be due to both global warming and natural
variability, e.g. the hypothesized Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), although an exact
attribution has not been defined.[145] However, recent temperatures are the warmest ever observed
for many ocean basins.[139]
In February 2007, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its
fourth assessment report on climate change. The report noted many observed changes in the
climate, including atmospheric composition, global average temperatures, ocean conditions,
among others. The report concluded the observed increase in tropical cyclone intensity is larger
than climate models predict. Additionally, the report considered that it is likely that storm
intensity will continue to increase through the 21st century, and declared it more likely than not
that there has been some human contribution to the increases in tropical cyclone intensity.[146]
However, there is no universal agreement about the magnitude of the effects anthropogenic
global warming has on tropical cyclone formation, track, and intensity. For example, critics such
as Chris Landsea assert that man-made effects would be "quite tiny compared to the observed
large natural hurricane variability".[147] A statement by the American Meteorological Society on 1
February 2007 stated that trends in tropical cyclone records offer "evidence both for and against
the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal" in tropical cyclogenesis.[148] Although many
aspects of a link between tropical cyclones and global warming are still being "hotly debated",
[149]
a point of agreement is that no individual tropical cyclone or season can be attributed to
global warming.[145][149] Research reported in the 3 September 2008 issue of Nature found that the
strongest tropical cyclones are getting stronger, particularly over the North Atlantic and Indian
oceans. Wind speeds for the strongest tropical storms increased from an average of 140 miles per
hour (230 km/h) in 1981 to 156 miles per hour (251 km/h) in 2006, while the ocean temperature,
averaged globally over the all regions where tropical cyclones form, increased from 28.2 C
(82.8 F) to 28.5 C (83.3 F) during this period.[150][151]
[edit] Related cyclone types
Subtropical Storm Gustav in 2002

See also: Cyclone, Extratropical cyclone, and Subtropical cyclone
In addition to tropical cyclones, there are two other classes of cyclones within the spectrum of
cyclone types. These kinds of cyclones, known as extratropical cyclones and subtropical
cyclones, can be stages a tropical cyclone passes through during its formation or dissipation.[152]
An extratropical cyclone is a storm that derives energy from horizontal temperature differences,
which are typical in higher latitudes. A tropical cyclone can become extratropical as it moves
toward higher latitudes if its energy source changes from heat released by condensation to
differences in temperature between air masses; additionally, although not as frequently, an
extratropical cyclone can transform into a subtropical storm, and from there into a tropical
cyclone.[2] From space, extratropical storms have a characteristic "comma-shaped" cloud pattern.
[153]
Extratropical cyclones can also be dangerous when their low-pressure centers cause powerful
winds and high seas.[154]
A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone and
some characteristics of an extratropical cyclone. They can form in a wide band of latitudes, from
the equator to 50. Although subtropical storms rarely have hurricane-force winds, they may
become tropical in nature as their cores warm.[155] From an operational standpoint, a tropical
cyclone is usually not considered to become subtropical during its extratropical transition.[156]
[edit] Tropical cyclones in popular culture
Main article: Tropical cyclones in popular culture
In popular culture, tropical cyclones have made appearances in different types of media,
including films, books, television, music, and electronic games. The media can have tropical
cyclones that are entirely fictional, or can be based on real events.[157] For example, George
Rippey Stewart's Storm, a best-seller published in 1941, is thought to have influenced
meteorologists into giving female names to Pacific tropical cyclones.[158] Another example is the
hurricane in The Perfect Storm, which describes the sinking of the Andrea Gail by the 1991
Perfect Storm.[159] Also, hypothetical hurricanes have been featured in parts of the plots of series
such as The Simpsons, Invasion, Family Guy, Seinfeld, Dawson's Creek, and CSI Miami.[157][160]
[161][162][163][164]
The 2004 film The Day After Tomorrow includes several mentions of actual tropical
cyclones as well as featuring fantastical "hurricane-like" non-tropical Arctic storms.[165][166]
[edit] See also
Tropical cyclones portal
HURDAT (online database)

Hurricane Alley
Hypercane
List of wettest tropical cyclones by country
Secondary flow in tropical cyclones
Disaster preparedness
Annual seasons Forecasting and preparation
List of Atlantic hurricane seasons Catastrophe modeling
(current) Hurricane engineering
List of North Indian Ocean cyclone Hurricane preparedness
seasons (current)
Hurricane-proof building
List of Pacific hurricane seasons
(current) Tropical cyclone watches and warnings
List of Pacific typhoon seasons (current)
List of South-West Indian Ocean
cyclone seasons (current)
List of Australian region cyclone
seasons (current)
List of South Pacific cyclone seasons
(current)
[edit] References
1. ^ Symonds, Steve (2003-11-17). "Highs and Lows". Wild Weather (Australian Broadcasting
Corporation). http://www.abc.net.au/northcoast/stories/s989385.htm. Retrieved 2007-03-23. [dead
link]
2. ^ a b Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division.

"Frequently Asked Questions: What is an extra-tropical cyclone?". National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A7.html. Retrieved 2007-03-
23.
3. ^ a b National Weather Service (2005-10-19). "Tropical Cyclone Structure". JetStream An
Online School for Weather. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/tc_structure.htm. Retrieved 2009-05-07.
4. ^ Pasch, Richard J.; Eric S. Blake, Hugh D. Cobb III, and David P. Roberts (2006-09-28).
"Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Wilma: 15-25 October 2005" (PDF). National Hurricane
Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL252005_Wilma.pdf. Retrieved 2006-12-14.
5. ^ Lander, Mark A. (January 1999). "A Tropical Cyclone with a Very Large Eye" (PDF). Monthly
Weather Review 127 (1): 137. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0137:ATCWAV>2.0.CO;2.
http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0493/127/1/pdf/i1520-0493-127-1-137.pdf. Retrieved
2006-12-14.
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[edit] External links

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Cyclones and Anticyclones of the world
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p Extratropical Meso-scale Polar Subtropical cyclone/Subtropical ridge Tropical
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A Siberian High Azores High (Bermuda/North Atlantic) North American High

n (Canadian/Greenland) South Atlantic High (St.Helena) Pacific High Scandinavian
n High Mascarene High (Indian) Australian High Antarctic High
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c Aleutian low (Alaska/Far East Russia) - Icelandic Low - Kona low(Hawaii) Polar low
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Formation and naming[show]

Warnings and watches

Climatology and tracking[show]

Tropical cyclones portal

[edit] Physical structure

Structure of a tropical cyclone

Size descriptions of tropical cyclones

Less than 2 degrees Very

2 to 3 degrees of latitude Small

3 to 6 degrees of latitude Medium/Average

6 to 8 degrees of latitude Large anti-dwarf

Basins and WMO Monitoring Institutions[27]

Basin Responsible RSMCs and TCWCs

North Atlantic National Hurricane Center (United States)

North-Central Pacific Central Pacific Hurricane Center (United States)

North-West Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency

North Indian Ocean India Meteorological Department

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Fiji Meteorological Service

Season lengths and seasonal averages[33][36]

Tropical Tropical Category 3+

Northwest Pacific April January 26.7 16.9 8.5

South Indian November April 20.6 10.3 4.3

North Atlantic June November 10.6 5.9 2.0

North Indian April December 5.4 2.2 0.4

Taipei 101 endures a typhoon in 2005

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Timeseries, 18562009

Subtropical Storm Gustav in 2002

HURDAT (online database)

2. ^ a b Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division.

[edit] External links

A Siberian High Azores High (Bermuda/North Atlantic) North American High

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