METRO MANILA MARKETVIEW

Developers expand real estate portfolio

Property market activities

point to stronger growth
Q4 GDP

6.3 % y-o-y

Average Inflation

1.5% (Dec 2015)

91-Day T-bill

1.84% (Dec 2015)

10yr T-bonds

4.0% (Dec 2015)

Ave. Bank Lending

5.73% (Dec 2015)

Megaworlds Venice Piazza

Property giants maintained their aggressive
stance on the back of the countrys strong
economic performance and political stability.
Listed developers ended 2015 with a
strengthened portfolio by increasing their
inventories of shopping malls, office buildings,
hotel rooms, and townships. These expansion
activities within the Philippine capital were
characterized by frothy deals such as the
acquisition of former Ayala Avenue eyesores,
shopping buildings, and land banking.
Earlier, talks of the acquisition of the 34-storey
Tower 6789 by Puregold owner Lucio Co became
known, as well as the record sale of the
abandoned JAKA Tower by Alveo Land, signaling
the facelift of Ayala Avenue. These buildings are
expected to add to Prime office stock and boost
the skyline of Makati CBD.
Property deals in the retail market depict a
vibrant scene as real estate companies
consolidate and position their inventories of
shopping buildings. Vista Land has acquired
Starmalls for PhP 33.53 billion to enhance its
asset holdings.
Q4 2015 CBRE Research

Vista Lands action to combine its residential and

shopping mall will help transform itself to become
one of the countrys largest integrated property
developers.
SM Prime and DMCI earlier inked a deal to
purchase a 2-hectare lot from the latter. Sy-led
real estate firm is expected to develop the
property into a residential community under its
subsidiary, SM Development Corp. This big block
of land is among the several lots owned by SM
along EDSA. Owning lots along major
thoroughfares bolsters SM Primes strategy in
building condominiums near shopping malls and
transit areas. Among other developments,
Megaworld also has on-going townships currently
being developed within Metro Manila namely,
Mckinley West, Arcovia, Westside City, and
Alabang West.
Developers quest to expand its sources of
recurring
revenue
and
translate
these
acquisitions into profitable investment will sustain
the progress of the local real estate market.

2015 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network |

M E T R O M A N I L A M A R K E T V I E W OFFICE

Expansion of BPOs and traditional offices support growth

Office market further

expands
The office market continues to heat up and
developers go full steam ahead with building
activities as demand for office space by foreign
firms boost the performance of the sector. Metro
Manila office rents for Q4 2015 averaged at PhP
870.47 per square meter per month, with a
growth rate of 2.54% q-o-q from Q3 2015.
Prime rents for office buildings in Makati City
posted a decline in rental rates to PhP 1,287.50
per square meter per month from PhP 1,294 of
Q3 2015. Meanwhile, Grade A office rents
exhibited an increase from last quarters PhP
902.38 to PhP 978.36 per square meter per
month. Makatis average rent was recorded at
PhP 1,115.79 per square meter per month which
is 3.23% higher than the previous quarter.
Vacancy for prime buildings was seen to
dramatically decrease to 1.55% from 7.13% due
to the fast take-up of available office space in
Tower 6789 from 4,996 square meters to 28,900
square meters.

Being the second preference after Makati, lease

rates in Fort Bonifacio also escalated to PhP
910.67 per square meter per month from PhP
898.75 per square meter in the preceding quarter.
Offices in the area witnessed a slight uptick in
vacancy due to some tenants leaving and
relocating to other competitive locations. This
equates to an increase in vacancy rate to 3.68%
from 3.48%.

Q4 2015 CBRE Research

Figure 1: Metro Manila Prime and Grade A Rents and Growth Rate
Rental Growth (RHS, % Y-o-Y))
900
850
800
750
700
650
600

Weighted Lease Rate (LHS, PhP)

15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%

Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015

Similar to Makati, rents for Alabang CBD

increased to PhP 655.53 per square meter per
month this quarter. Vacancy rates went down to
1.79% from 4.55%, wherein Aeon Center was the
major contributor in the drop of available space to
3,400 square meters from 6,806 square meters.

One World Place

Source: CBRE Research

2015 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network |

M E T R O M A N I L A M A R K E T V I E W OFFICE

Q4 2015 CBRE Research

6.3

6.1

5.8

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Figure 3: Business Confidence Outlook

Current Quarter

Next Quarter

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Figure 4: Philippine IT-BPO Industry Direct and Indirect Employment

Indirect

Road Map 2016

Direct

3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

Baseline 2016

Robust macroeconomic fundamentals and the

strong image of the countrys Business Process
Outsourcing (BPO) industry continue to lift the
office market. The country continues to be a top
choice of foreign locators because of its excellent
pool and low cost of skilled labor and outstanding
customer service. It also has one of the cheapest
rental rates and highest yields in Asia. As a
result, heightened demand for offices has been
observed across Metro Manila business districts.

5.0

Low-end 2016

Office Market Propelled by BPO

5.5

2010

Business sentiment soared to a two-year high in

the fourth quarter amid robust consumer demand
during the Christmas season, steady flows of
cash remittances from overseas Filipinos, and
election-related spending, a survey conducted by
the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.
Hence, global firms are more eager to expand
their businesses and hire more people in the
current quarter, expecting brisk sales due to the
holiday season and higher government spending.
The countrys hosting of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders Meeting
in November also resulted in expectations of
brisker business.

6.6

2009

Business Sentiment remains high

6.7
5.6

2006

The Philippine economy continues to show its

resilience as it posted 5.8% annual gross
domestic product (GDP) growth in 2015. The
economy registered 6.3% y-o-y in the fourth
quarter with the annual holiday spending fueling
the expansion. Economic output was also
boosted by the performance of the services
sector which accelerated by 7.4% in Q4.

8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0

Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015

Philippine economy sustains growth

Figure 2: Philippines GDP Growth Rate

Millions

Two other business districts also registered an

uptick in office rental rates, these are Quezon
City and Ortigas Center. Vacant office space was
seen to slightly drop as major business firms find
these locations as attractive and competitive as
with other prime CBDs.

Source: BPAP, Everest Global, Outsource2Philippines

2015 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network |

M E T R O M A N I L A M A R K E T V I E W OFFICE

In 2016, office supply in Fort Bonifacio is

expected to grow by 67,400 square meters, with
the completion of Megaworlds IT-BPO campus
buildings in McKinley West. In Alabang, ATC
Corporate Center and Filinvest 2 and 3 will prop
up the areas office market and add 47,568
square meters to the supply. Meanwhile,
Robinson Lands Exxa and Zeta Towers, which
will be part of Bridgetown along C-5 Road, will
further expand the office markets building stock.
Optimism in the office market will continue to be
supported by the expected investment boom
brought about by the countrys improving fiscal
position, favorable demographics, and lower
operating cost.
Headline rates are expected to move upwards in
Makati CBD as no new Prime or Grade A
buildings are expected to be finished within the
CBD during the year.
As for Fort Bonifacio, landlords put a premium on
the CBDs rapid development. As such, it is
expected for asking rents to rise. However,
supply pressures will underpin the movement of
transacted rents.
As for the rest of the CBDs, asking rents will
move upwards by smaller increments due to the
introduction of newly-constructed buildings.
Strong interest from foreign firms will continue to
buoy the office market. Developers in Metro
Manila are slated to introduce about 1.1 million
square meters of office space during the year.

Vacancy Rate (RHS)

12%
10%

200,000

8%

150,000

6%

100,000

4%
2%

0%

Q3 2007
Q2 2008
Q1 2009
Q4 2009
Q3 2010
Q2 2011
Q1 2012
Q4 2012
Q3 2013
Q2 2014
Q1 2015
Q4 2015

50,000

Source: CBRE Research

Figure 6: Development Pipeline (sq. m)

1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2016
2017
Makati
Quezon City

2018
2019
2020
Fort Bonifacio
Alabang
Ortigas
Bay City

Source: CBRE Research

Figure 7: Other CBD Key Indicators

CBD

Lease Rate

Vacancy Rate

Net Absorption

Makati

PhP 1,116

1.42%

25,298 sq. m

Prime

PhP 1,288

1.55%

23,886 sq. m

Grade A

PhP 978

1.42%

1,411 sq. m

Fort Bonifacio

PhP 911

3.68%

(2,016) sq. m

Alabang

PhP 656

1.79%

(5,256) sq. m

Quezon City

PhP 689

0.78%

3,840 sq. m

Ortigas

PhP 635

1.63%

288 sq. m

Bay Area

PhP 648

0.12%

0 sq. m

Source: CBRE Research

Q4 2015 CBRE Research

2015 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network |

Vacancy Rate (%)

Net Absorption (LHS)

250,000

Net Absorption (sq. m)

Take-up for office units was also seen to be

aggressive in Makati as Alveo Financial Tower
reportedly sold over 90% of its Gross Sellable
Area (GSA). Within a span of 4 months since its
launch, the subsidiary of Ayala Land, Alveo, has
been actively marketing its office tower for a
selling price of PhP 250,000 per square meter.
Alveo Financial Tower is expected to be
completed in 2020.

Figure 5: Metro Manila Office Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate

Thousands of sq. m

Hot Office Market

M E T R O M A N I L A M A R K E T V I E W INDUSTRIAL

Industrial estates seen to expand

Potential investors from Asia

stir demand for industrial
estates

Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA)

recently disclosed that potential investors to the
country are our Asian neighbors with
requirements of 25 to 30 hectares of land within
the ecozones.
Within the next three years, a total of 1.13 million
square meters will be added to the countrys
industrial parks. This will come from private
developers such as Suntrust Ecotown (338,328
sq. m), Cavite Technopark (359,664 sq. m), Vista
Land (243,840 sq. m), and Global Gateway
Logistics City (188,976 sq. m).
The countrys economic zones are top choices for
foreign investors given the incentives and perks
offered by the government. For 2015, total
investments approved by PEZA grew by 5.6% to
PhP 295.09 billion from PhP 279.48 billion in
2014. This has created total direct employment of
1.24 million as of October 2015.
PEZA zones surveyed by CBRE within Clark,
Subic, Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas exhibit high
occupancy rates. The average occupancy rate for
industrial parks mentioned in these provinces is
approximately at 86%.
Manufacturing companies are the biggest
investors in the countrys ecozones. Lease rates
for factory buildings remain below USD 6 per sq.
m per month while rentals for warehouses are
below USD 5 per sq. m per month.

Q4 2015 CBRE Research

Figure 8: Industrial Production % y-o-y

.

20

VaPI

VoPI

15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)

Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15

Souring relationship between Japan and China

has prompted investors in the former to look into
other parts of Asia, particularly the Philippines, for
locations where they can transfer their
operations.

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

SUBIC BAY FREEPORT
Metro-Manila : 130 kms (68 Miles) / 2 2.5 Hours
Size : 67,000 hectares / 165,560 acres
Power : 130 mws
Water : 33,000 cubic meters/day
Telco Provider: Subictel (PLDT)
Lease Rate : US$0.40 -US$1.70 /sq. m*
US$3.00 -US$6.00/sq. m (SFB)*
CLARK FREEPORT ZONE
Metro Manila : 80 kms (50 Miles) / 1+Hour
Size : 33,653 Hectare / 83,158 Acres
Power : 50mws + External
Water : Max 40k cubic meters/day (2010)
Telco Providers : PLDT & Digitel
Lease Rate :
US$ 0.30 -US$ 2.00/sq. m (Main Zone Lot)*
PhP5,500 -PhP25,000 /ha (Sub Zone Lot)*
US$3.00-US$5.00 /sq. m (SFB)*
CALABARZON
Metro-Manila :110 kms (68 Miles) /
2 Hour Drive to Batangas
Power : Varies by Location
Water : Varies by Location
Telco Providers : Varies by Location (PLDT etc.)
Selling Rate : PhP4,600 PhP6,000 /sq. m (Lot)
Lease Rate : PhP50 PhP80 /sq. m (Lot)*
US$4 US$6 /sq. m (SFB)*
* Lease rate per month
SFB (Standard Factory Building)

2015 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network |

M E T R O M A N I L A M A R K E T V I E W RETAIL

New malls and expansion of brands prop the market

Retail market ends 2015

strong

Retail developments across the metro opened

during the quarter, including the Uptown Mall in
Bonifacio Global City, Circuit Mall in Makati, and
Grand Canal Mall in McKinley, Taguig. Smaller
retail outlets or neighborhood malls such as
Cherry Foodarama in Mandaluyong also opened.
Mall expansions including the Shangri-la Mall in
Shaw likewise paved the way for more brands to
set up shop in the market. Newly opened malls
and retail podiums amount to approximately
205,689 square meters. Although open to the
public, there are still available spaces in these
developments. Other than the operational
establishments, pre-leased cuts are seen
throughout the malls.
New builds and rehabilitation of existing space is
ongoing across the metro. In addition, pocket
retail establishments and malls located in
secondary areas, or areas in the fringes of
business districts, are on the rise. Ayala Lands
Circuit Lane, part of the mixed-use development
in the former Sta. Ana race track, added close to
60,000 square meters in the supply this quarter.
Refurbishment and expansion of existing malls
such as The Shoppes in Solaire, SM Mall of Asia
extension, and Paradigm Mall in Pasig are also
Continued on page 7
Q4 2015 CBRE Research

Figure 9: Headline Inflation (% y-o-y)

6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15

The Philippine retail market ended the year

strong with the opening of new developments
and continuous influx of foreign brands.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, as
of December, the sector grew to 6.3% from 1.9%
from the same quarter a year ago. This growth
translated to expansion and new entry of retail
companies into the country. The low inflation rate
environment, which lasted throughout 2015, has
encouraged households to consume more and
enabled retail companies to expect better-thanexpected financial performance.

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Figure 10: Overseas Filipinos Remittances (In USD million)

25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Jan- Nov
2015

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Figure 11: Q4 2015 Retail Openings by Sector

Fashion - General
4%

Mid-range
Fashion
18%
Specialist Clothing
23%

Other
5%

Coffee and
Restaurants
50%

Source: CBRE Research

2015 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network |

M E T R O M A N I L A M A R K E T V I E W RETAIL

CONTINUED FROM PAGE 6 RETAIL

awaited, adding approximately 700,000 square

meters of retail space this coming 2016; giving
tenants more options and opportunities to grow.
The additional supply has pushed vacancy levels
up; hence, developers are keen on keeping rents
competitive. Rates continue to range from
PhP1,400 to PhP 1,700 per square meter and
remains attractive to retailers interested in
opening stores in the market. Demand remains
strong as rental rates are seen to increase
despite the upcoming retail supply but at a slower
pace.
Foreign brands continue to flourish in the retail
market. New brands that opened this quarter are
mainly from the food and beverage industry, such
as Din Tai Fung, Casa Italia, Rocky Mountain
Chocolate Factory, and Applebees. Upcoming
brands entering the market, meanwhile, include
Joe Fresh. Existing brands that opened more
branches are H&M, Cath Kidston, Kate Spade,
Sfera, Claires, Payless Shoe Store, Costa
Coffee, Maisen, Mr. Pizza, and Fridays.
The entry of more foreign brands also continues
to stir up competition in the retail market,
challenging the local competition to become more
inventive in their products and services for
consumption. Take-up of retail space in malls,
located mostly in the central business districts, is
mostly by foreign brands. With this, local retailers
are coming up with different and creative ideas to
lure both locals and tourists to their stores. This
remains true for neighborhood restaurants, coffee
shops, and clothing stores in order to keep at par
with their foreign competition. This brings the
retail market to a more exciting level, not only this
quarter, but in the coming year as well. This trend
is seen to boost demand and take up of space,
both existing and upcoming. The maturing
Filipino market promises continuous growth in
demand for retail space.

Q4 2015 CBRE Research

Uptown Place Mall

Upbeat performance of the retail sector can also

be credited to the increase in foreign visitor
arrivals throughout the year. According to the
Department of Tourism, arrivals are expected to
reach 5 million come end of 2015.
Government efforts and ASEAN activities have
likewise boosted the attractiveness and economic
competitiveness of the Philippines as a global
destination for brands. The ASEAN integration is
also seen to open up more opportunities and
benefits for cross-border trade.
Sustained positive performance of the retail
industry has also pushed the development of
malls and retail strips in areas near the central
business districts. Fringe establishments are on
the rise as well, supporting the growth of the
sector.

2015 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network |

M E T R O M A N I L A M A R K E T V I E W RESIDENTIAL

Developers go full throttle on luxury condominiums

Upbeat residential market

Figure 12: Monthly Average Rental rate (PhP per sq. m)
Studio

Rental Rate per sqm. per Month (PhP)

1,200

1 BR

2 BR

3 BR

4 BR

5 BR

1,000
800
600
400
200
0

Source: CBRE Research

Makati

Taguig

Muntinlupa City

Local condominium sales market is expected to

remain upbeat as demand for residential
condominiums is still healthy. Demand emanates
from increasing expatriate community in the
country and overseas Filipinos working abroad.
For the first nine months of 2015, major
developers attribute more than 20% of their
residential
sales
to
overseas
Filipinos.
Reservation sales by major property firm is
likewise reported to be strong.
A myriad of factors have influenced the growth in
the residential scene but it is the expansion of the
business process outsourcing (BPO) industry that
provided most of the stimuli. The availability of
BPO jobs in major commercial districts,
particularly in Metro Manila, spurred the influx of
professionals to the city and raised the demand
for housing.
The trend of urban living encouraged developers
to create pocket developments and townships.
Property firms introduced new components such
as retail, leisure, residential, and offices into a
single location.

Q4 2015 CBRE Research

Quezon City

San Juan

Pasig

Developers are also bullish on luxury

condominiums as expatriates move from lessees
to unit owners. Metro Manila continues to be the
top
investment
destination
for
luxury
condominium buyers. Bonifacio Global City
(BGC) and Makati are considered as top prime
locations given their proximity to major
commercial districts.
The high-end condominiums feature few but
spacious units per floor and high-quality
amenities. Rentals for 3-BR in BGC is at
PhP170,000-240,000 and in Rockwell at
PhP160,000-200,000.
Meanwhile, Makati 3-BR for Premium Grade
condominiums command PhP180,000-280,000.
Selling prices for new condominium units range
between PhP184,000-309,000 for Makati CBD
and above PhP185,000 for BGC.
Continued on page 9

2015 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network |

M E T R O M A N I L A M A R K E T V I E W RESIDENTIAL

C O N T I NUED F R O M P AG E 9 R E S IDENT IAL

Luxury apartments are also considered a global

tool of investment for foreigners that seek higher
return for their funds. The Philippine market is
relatively cheaper compared to other locations in
Asia, which benefited the demand for residential
condominiums.
According to government data, a total of 3.78
million square meters of residential units are
currently being constructed which is comprised of
22,562 units from single house, apartment,
duplex/quadruplex, residential condominium and
other types of residential buildings.
Construction of residential condominium, which
amounts to a total of PhP18.2 billion based on
the latest government report, takes the top spot in
terms of contribution to total construction value.

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JOEY RADOVAN
Vice Chairman
Corporate Agency & Brokerage
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JAN CUSTODIO/ ALVIN FERNANDEZ

Senior Director/ Director
Global Research and Consultancy
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CALVIN JAVINIAR
Senior Director
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Director
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Director
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Asset Services
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CBRE PHILIPPINES RESEARCH TEAM/ CONTRIBUTOR

ALRIA VENTANILLA Research Manager
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This report was prepared by the CBRE Philippines Research Team which forms part of CBRE Global
Research and Consulting a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to
provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate
investors and occupiers around the globe.

Disclaimer: 2015 CBRE Philippines. Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network. CBRE Philippines confirms that information contained herein, including projections, has
been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we have not verified them and make no guarantee, warranty or
representation about them. It is your responsibility to confirm independently their accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by
CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.