Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PAYANIANDY Muruganandam
Final year project submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the
degree of Bachelor of Financial Management
University of Mauritius
April 2016
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................... iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENT .................................................................................................................. v
PROJECT/DISSERTATION DECLARATION FORM ............................................................. vi
ABSTRACT..................................................................................................................................... vii
LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................. viii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................................... ix
INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1
1.
1.1
1.2
2.
2.1
2.1.1
Definition ........................................................................................................................ 3
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.1.3.1.
2.1.3.2.
2.1.4
2.2
2.1.4.1.
2.1.4.2.
2.1.4.3.
2.1.4.4.
3.
4.
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.6.1
4.6.2
4.6.3
4.6.4
4.6.5
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
5.
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5.1
5.5.2
5.5.3
5.5.4
6.
6.1
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 22
6.2
Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 22
7.
8.
APPENDICES ......................................................................................................................... 29
Appendix I ........................................................................................................................................ 29
Appendix II ....................................................................................................................................... 31
Appendix III ...................................................................................................................................... 32
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Official Markets evolution ................................................................................................ 11
Table 2: Expected results .................................................................................................................. 15
Table 3: Descriptive analysis ........................................................................................................... 17
Table 4: Pearson Correlation ........................................................................................................... 18
Table 5: Share price coefficient ........................................................................................................ 18
Table 6: Durbin-Watson ................................................................................................................... 19
Table 7: Regression analysis ............................................................................................................ 19
Table 8: ANOVA ............................................................................................................................... 20
Table 9: Goodness for fit .................................................................................................................. 20
iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Writing this mini project was a special and enriching experience. I wish to firstly express
my gratitude to my supervisor Mrs. Reena Bhattu Babajee who guided throughout with her
expertise and patience.
My thanks are also extended to all the dear ones who supported and helped me, especially
my friends Karishma and Mevin who made this project a pleasant task.
Last but not least, I would like to thank my parents, my older sister Isaiarasi and my younger
brother Ganesha who were always by my side and provided me with immense moral
support and blessings throughout the duration of my mini project.
UNIVERSITY OF MAURITIUS
PROJECT/DISSERTATION DECLARATION FORM
Name: PAYANIANDY Muruganandam
Student ID: 1217700
Programme of Studies: BSc (Hons) Financial Management
Module Code/Name: DFA 4298(5) / Financial Management Project
Title of Project/Dissertation: The impact of dividend on the share value of companies listed on the
Stock Exchange of Mauritius
Name of Supervisor(s): Mrs Reena Bhattu Babajee
Declaration:
In accordance with the appropriate regulations, I hereby submit the above dissertation for examination
and I declare that:
(i)
I have read and understood the sections on Plagiarism and Fabrication and Falsification of Results
found in the Universitys General Information to Students Handbook (2016/2017) and certify
that the dissertation embodies the results of my own work.
(ii) I have no objection to submit a soft copy of my dissertation through the Turnitin Platform. I confirm
that the hard copies and soft copies, including the one uploaded through the Turnitin Platform, in
the final assignment submission link indicated by the Programme/Project Coordinator, are
identical in content.
(iii) I have adhered to the Harvard system of referencing or a system acceptable as per The University
of Mauritius Referencing Guide for referencing, quotations and citations in my dissertation. Each
contribution to, and quotation in my dissertation from the work of other people has been
attributed, and has been cited and referenced.
(iv) I have not allowed and will not allow anyone to copy my work with the intention of passing it off
as his or her own work.
(v) I am aware that I may have to forfeit the certificate/diploma/degree in the event that plagiarism
has been detected after the award.
(vi) Notwithstanding the supervision provided to me by the University of Mauritius, I warrant that any
alleged act(s) of plagiarism during my stay as registered student of the University of Mauritius is
entirely my own responsibility and the University of Mauritius and/or its employees shall under no
circumstances whatsoever be under any liability of any kind in respect of the aforesaid act(s) of
plagiarism.
Signature:
Date:
vi
ABSTRACT
This study has for objective the investigation of the impact of dividend policy on share price
of companies on the SEM. Twenty companies listed on the SEM were used as sample, for a
time period of five years from 2010 till 2014. Share price was used as dependent variable
and tested against DPS, RR and DPR. PAT was used as the control variable. Analytical
methods considered were the Pearson Correlation and a Multiple Regression. The methods
have given evidence that dividend policy has a positively significant impact on the share
price of a company and an increase in dividends paid to shareholders would cause an
increase in share value of the company.
Keywords: Dividend Policy, Share Price, DPS, DPR, RR and PAT
vii
LIST OF ACRONYMS
SEM
DEM
CDS
viii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
DPS
RR
: Retention Ratio
DPR
PAT
MUR
: Mauritian Rupee
USD
EUR
: Euro
GBP
: Pound Sterling
ZAR
ix
1. INTRODUCTION
The dividend policy is a major financing decision that involves payment to shareholders in
return of their investments in a company. Each and every company listed follows some sort
of dividend payment pattern and it is obviously a financial indicator of the specific
company. Upon making profits, the management of the company may either retain it or pay
out the profits to the shareholders in the form of dividends. If the company decides to pay
dividends, they should institute a permanent dividend policy. Their decision relies on the
current and forecasted financial situation of the company. It is also influenced by the
preferences of investors and potential investors.
Many researchers have been arguing about the relevance of dividend policy on the
movement of share prices. This argument has generated a lot of controversies amongst
financial theories like Black, Scholes, Modigliani and Miller, Gordon and so on; leading to
two distinctive groups: dividend relevance and dividend irrelevance groups.
Dividend provides a mean of assessing the financial position of a company for stakeholders
or potential investors. As a result the shareholders can assess the capacity of the company
to generate cash given that some investors consider dividend as a major source of income.
Basically, dividend is a benefit that shareholders receive. Paying out dividend depends on
various factors such as size of business, financing limitations, investment decisions by
management and regulation of the industry as well. Graham and Dodd (1951) believed that
a dollar of dividends has four times the average impact on share price as a dollar of retained
earnings. But Modigliani and Miller (1961) in their dividend irrelevant theory pointed out
that in a perfect capital market i.e., ignoring taxes and transaction costs, a dividend policy
should not affect the value of a share at all.
Nowadays, with globalization being the pinnacle point of the business world, multinationals
have crossed borders, thus transforming investors into cross-national investors. Their
decision as to whether to invest in a firm rests merely on information provided to the public.
Dividend which might be an important factor and thus became the interest of this study.
Dividend policies may impact positively and significantly the share prices of the company
and may influence the firms choice of future dividend policies.
1.1
This study aims at analysing the relationship between dividend and share price. To achieve
the aim, the following objectives were set:
1. To carry out a desk study on dividend, dividend policies and empirical methods;
2. To select twenty companies from Stock Exchange of Mauritius which has been
listed at least from 2008 and obtain the relevant data;
3. To analyse the data using appropriate method of analysis; and
4. To discuss the resulting relationships.
1.2
Chapter Outline
Chapter 1: Introduction
The introduction constitutes the current chapter which explains the subject of interest
and states the problem being addressed. The aim and objectives are also included.
Chapter 4: Methodology
This chapter reads out the methodology used to carry out the study and defines the
variables used in the regression model.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1
Theoretical review
2.1.1 Definition
People have different views on dividends and dividend policy. Some consider it as a hard
earned return on a good investment, while some are against it and consider dividend to be
an obstacle towards future prospects of a company.
Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? Its to see my dividends coming in.
John D. Rockefeller
John Rockefeller was the founder of the Standard Oil Company, a behemoth that was at the
top of the oil industry. He retired in 1897 and later became the worlds richest man and the
first billionaire in history.
A stock dividend is something tangible its not an earnings projection; its something
solid, in hand. A stock dividend is a true return on the investment. Everything else is hope
and speculation. Richard Russell
Our goal is to increase enterprise value. Which would you rather have us be? A company
with our stock price, and $40 billion in the bank? Or a company with our stock price and
no cash in the bank? Steve Jobs
2.1.2 History of dividend policy
Dividend policies date back as far back as the late sixteenth century. It started in Holland
and Great Britain, where captains of sailing ships began to sell financial claims to investors
who were then entitled to a share of the proceeds of the ships at the end of their voyages
(Walker, 1931). By the end of the sixteenth century, they started to trade the financial claims
on an open market in Amsterdam. They were gradually converted into share ownership
where investors would acquire share denomination which usually were the fractions of the
ships wealth. The fractions could be 1/8, 1/16, 1/32, 1/48 and also 1/56. In order to reduce
their risk of loss of proceeds from sailing ships, investors would diversify by investing in
several ships at the same time.
At the end of each voyage, there was a liquidation process that distributed profits to the
investors but this became increasingly inconvenient and cost. This gave rise to the agency
relationship between the principals who were the investors and the agents, who were the
captains. The investors confidence grew larger and the captains made regular payment of
generous dividends in return of their capital invested. This form of business gradually
evolved and soon became a joint stock company form of business. In 1613, the British East
India Company issued its first joint stock shares with a nominal a value. No distinction
was made, however, between capital and profit (Walker, 1931 p.102).
In the early stages of corporate dividend history, managers realized the importance of high
and continuous dividend payments. They found that investors preferred shares that
performed like bonds, that is, pays a regular and stable dividend. Also, in the early
nineteenth century, dividend was seen as an important source of information. The scarcity
and unreliability of financial data resulted in investors assessing the companies by the
dividend that are paid rather than the earnings. Consequently, an increased in dividend
payout reflected in rising share price. This led to managers using dividend payout to signal
the earning prospects of the companies.
Black and Scholes (1974) have argued that a firm can influence the price of its share by
changing its dividend policy. The most common argument is that firms wishing to increase
their share value would prefer cash or benefits as dividends rather that those benefits as
capital gain, therefore attracting investors to bid up the stocks of firms that pay generous
dividend compared to those paying smaller dividend. Gordon (1959) also suggested that
dividend policy affects a firms cost of capital and this supports the view that the higher
rates of paid dividends cover more of cost of capital. Miller and Modigliani (1961) on the
other hand argued that as long as firms cash flow distribution is stable and there is no tax
effect, choosing a policy of paying dividends on the stock market value has no effect.
There is another argument, hinted at by Miller and Modigliani, which suggests that dividend
policy should not matter. They say (1961, pg. 431):
If, for example, the frequency distribution of corporate payout ratios happened to
correspond exactly with the distribution of investor preference for payout ratios, then the
existence of these preference would clearly lead ultimately to a situation whose implications
were different in no fundamental respect from the perfect market case. Each corporation
would tend to attract to itself a clientele consisting of those preferring its particular payout
ratio, but one clientele would be entirely as good as another in terms of the valuation it
would imply for the firm.
Before the publication of Miller and Modigliani Theorem (hereafter M&M), it was a
common belief that share value is directly proportional to dividend policy of the said firm,
that is, as dividend increases, the share increases in value. Graham and Dodd (1934) for
instance argued that:
the sole purpose for the existence of a corporation is to pay dividends
This was the result of the theory known as The Bird-in-hand, further discussed below.
But M&M was not of the same belief and claimed that subject to several assumptions,
investors should be indifferent on whether firms pay dividends or not. The value of the firm
therefore depends on the investment decisions and not the dividend policy and are based on
the perfect market assumptions which are as follows:
No difference between taxes on dividends and capital gains;
No transaction and flotation costs when securities are traded;
All participants in the market have access to the same costless information;
There are no agency conflicts; and
All participants in the market are price takers.
M&M maintained that the value of firm is based on its future earnings and investment and
decision as to which a firm pays dividends or not has no importance. Therefore, from an
investor point of view, the payment of dividends can be pointless, as a stream of payments
can be acquired simply by the proper purchasing and selling of their shares. Thus, paying a
premium in order to receive dividends in the future would be irrelevant.
2.1.3.2. The Residual Theory
This theory holds the fact that all dividend paid are residual, after the firm has retained cash
for available investments and positive NPV projects. This being said, it was seen that
dividend being only the residual cash available cannot be a factor in the movement of share
prices. Higgins (1972, p.1527) stated that:
Starting with the basic proposition that shareholders should prefer capital gains income
to dividend income in a world of differential taxes and transactions costs, dividends are
viewed as basically a residual in the corporate decision process.
This type of dividend policy proves to be extremely volatile as the payments depends
wholly on the residual funds available. Thus, share valuation of a firm as per the dividend
policy would be irrelevant as the fluctuation of amount of distribution of income as dividend
in each financial period would not reflect the change in share price.
2.1.4 Dividend Relevance Theories:
2.1.4.1.
Bird-In-Hand Theory
This theory brings forward the relationship between dividend policy and share price, which
is, a directly proportional one that dividend increases a firms value. Litner (1962) and
Gordon (1963) argued that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush and thus when a
shareholder receives cash dividend, he is better off than one receiving capital gain. Investors
therefore value dividend more than capital gains. As a higher current dividend reduces
uncertainty about future cash flows, a high payout would reduce the cost of capital and
hence increase the share value.
However, M&M (1961) as well as Bhattacharya (1979) argued that a firms riskiness (cash
flows or returns) is not determined by the amount of dividend distributed but in fact
Bhattacharya (1979) suggested that:
a firms risk affects the level of dividend payments, but increase in dividends will not
reduce the risk of the firm.
2.1.4.2.
Walter (1963) proposed a model which states that dividend policy is relevant in defining
the value of a firm. The model holds that when dividends are paid to the shareholders, they
are further reinvested by the shareholders, to get higher returns.
Walters formula to determine the market price per share (P) is as follows:
= / + ( )//
Where P Market price
D Dividend per share
E Earning per share
K Cost of equity
6
Signaling Theory
According to M&Ms irrelevance theory and the perfect capital market assumptions, each
and every player on the market has the same information and for free. But in reality, agents,
that is managers or directors, who look after the management of firms for the principals
possess insider information about the present and future state of the firms, inaccessible to
the shareholders and the public. Therefore, agents would use changes in dividend as a way
to communicate information to the market about the future earnings and growth of the firm.
Ross (1977) argued that in this inefficient market, managers signal important information
to investors through dividend payments. If there is an increase in dividend payout, it signals
that there is a high retained earnings and thus share price will increase consequently.
Litner (1956) claimed that firms tend to increase dividends when managers believe that
earnings have permanently increased. It implies that the firm has a long period sustainable
earning. Managers would smooth dividends over time and not make any increase unless
they can maintain the increased amount in the future. This is known as the dividend
smoothing hypothesis.
2.1.4.4.
It was proposed by Pettit (1977) that different groups of shareholders have different
preferences for dividend. For example the shareholders or investors that earn less would
prefer to acquire high dividends so as to meet their needs while those who earn high income
would prefer less dividend so as to avoid the payment of taxes. Therefore when a firm sets
a certain dividend policy there will be a shifting of investors to it and out of it until
equilibrium position is reached, where the firms will be consistent with the clientele it has.
Allen, Bernardo and Welch (2000) suggested that clienteles such as institutional investors
tend to be more prompted to invest in dividend paying firms due to their tax advantages
over individual investors. Also, institutional investors are better positioned to acquire
information of firms compared to individual investors and by paying dividend it often give
good signal on the current and future position of the firm financial wise.
2.2
Empirical review
Gordon (1959) suggested that there were three possible hypotheses to as why investors
would buy a stock. Firstly because of the dividend and earnings, then to obtain the dividends
and finally to obtain the earnings. He examined the hypotheses using sample data from
different industries namely, chemical, food, steel and machine tools. He concluded that
dividends have greater influence on share price than retained earnings. However, it was
subjected to various criticism. Firstly he did not take into account the risk variation among
the different industries. Also, his study considered only internal financing, ignoring any
external financing that took place. Furthermore, the study was conducted on a short period
and the results could have been biased as dividends are more stable that retained earnings.
Miller and Modiglianis (1961) hypothesis on the irrelevance of dividend policy is not
compatible with empirical evidence. This fact implies that there must be additional factors
that cause firms to persistently seek a consistent policy of paying dividend.
Black and Scholes (1974) conducted an experiment to find a relationship between dividend
yield and stock returns in order to identify the effect of dividend policy on stock prices.
They constructed a portfolio of 25 common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange,
using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (hereafter as CAPM) to test the effect of the dividend
yield. Their results showed that the dividend yield was not significant. They concluded by
stating (1974, p.18):
We have been unable to show that differences in dividend yield lead to differences in stock
returns. This implies that we are unable to show that dividend policy affects stock prices.
Pettit (1972) observed that the announcement of dividends in fact do communicate
information to outsiders (shareholders) and the market reacts to those information. It was
noted that the market responds positively to the increase in dividend, leading to increase in
stock price. Likewise, the market reacts negatively to the announcement of a decrease in
dividend payout, leading to a decrease in stock price. He also added the following (1972,
p.1002):
dividend announcement, when forthcoming, may convey significantly more information
than the information implicit in an earnings announcement
Dividends are meant to deliver private information to the market. Predictions about the
future earnings of a firm based on dividend information should be superior to forecasts
8
made without dividend information. A number of studies have tested these implications of
the information content of dividends which includes studies by Watts (1973), Gonedes
(1978) and, Nissim and Ziv (2001).
Pettit (1977) provided empirical evidences for the existence of the Clientele Effect Theory
by examining the portfolios of 914 individual investors. He found a significant positive
relationship between the age of the investor and their portfolios dividend yield and a
negative relationship between their income and dividend yield. It was observed that the
elderly with low income earning would prefer high dividends stocks with no transaction
costs associated to it as they tend to depend more on their portfolio for financing of their
current consumption.
In the empirical examination Rozeff (1982) found three common trends in corporate
dividend policy:
Lower dividend payments levels are found in high growth firms where investment
requirements reduce the funds available for dividend payments;
Corporations with higher firm specific risks or leverage ratios pay smaller
dividends; and
Higher payouts are found in firms with little insider ownership and a large number
of outside shareholders.
Empirical studies however showed mixed evidence, using the data from US, Japan and
Singapore markets. A number of studies such as those conducted by Gordon (1959) and,
Kato and Loewenstein (1995), found that stock price has a significant positive relationship
with dividend payments. Conversely Easton and Sinclair (1989) found a negative
relationship.
Grinblatt et al. (1984) provided evidence of significantly positive announcement returns for
both stock splits and large stock dividend announcements for the American share market.
If the firm has constraints, such as legal restrictions, stock exchange rules, or bond
covenants, the bonus shares can inhibit the firms ability to pay cash dividends. Firms
expecting positive future performance will not expect these constraints to be binding, so
they do not mind reducing retained earnings. On the other hand, Firms expecting poor
performance will find these constraints binding and hence would choose not to issue more
shares.
10
set up a platform to trade medium and long term government securities. Commercial banks
have been licensed by the Central Bank to act as Market Makers in order to ensure liquidity.
Nowadays, the SEM is connected live to global vendors enabling the investors worldwide
to follow the market on a real time basis. This coverage of the market is a good vehicle to
carry the SEM on the world radar and enhance the Exchanges visibility internationally,
thus attracting more foreign investors interest in the Mauritian market.
Table 1: Official Markets evolution
Year
No. of listed Cos
(Equities)
SEMDEX (End of
Period)
Change in
SEMDEX (%)
Dividend Yield - %
(End of Period)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
37
38
41
43
46
51
1,967.45
1,888.38
1,732.06
2,095.69
2,073.72
1,811.07
18.46
-4.02
-8.28
20.99
-1.05
-12.67
2.5
3.04
3.39
2.58
2.99
3.73
11
4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Rajasekar, Philominathan and Chinnathambi (2013) believed that:
Research methodology is a systematic way to solve a problem. It is a science of studying
how research is to be carried out. Essentially, the procedures by which researchers go
about their work of describing, explaining and predicting phenomena are called research
methodology. It is also defined as the study of methods by which knowledge is gained. Its
aim is to give the work plan of research.
4.1
Research Objective
This study aims at analysing the relationship between dividend policy and its impacts on
shares market price of twenty companies listed in the SEM for the period of five years from
2010 2014 (Appendix II).
4.2
Research Hypothesis
4.3
Data Collection
Since it is a study of past information of the companies, secondary data shall be used.
According to Church (2001), in secondary data analysis, the individual or group that
analyses the data is not involved in the planning of the experiment or the collection of the
data. Such analysis can be done based upon information that is available in the statistical
information in the published articles, the data available in the text, tables, graphs, and
appendices of the published articles, or upon the original data. There are various advantages
to the use of secondary data as follows:
The data was already collected by someone else and thus is less time consuming;
Although some secondary data need to be bought, it is certainly cheaper than the
cost of preparing questionnaires for acquisition of primary data and also transport
costs associated to it;
The secondary data collection is performed by researchers who have the expertise,
technique and professionalism in the associated field.
12
4.4
Model Specification
As per the work of Ali, Ali Jan and Sharif (2015), the following model would be used in
order to study to relationship between share price and dividend policy:
= 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + + .
Where;
Y = Share Price
SDit = Coefficient of Stock dividend per share,
RRit = Retention ratio,
DPRit = Dividend payout ratio,
PATit = Profit after tax,
it = Error term in the equation.
4.5
In this study, a multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the effect of
dividend policy on share price. In the model, share price was used as the dependent variable
and was regressed against three independent variables, namely, dividend payout ratio,
retention ratio and dividend per share. Since there are other factors that affect the share
price of a company, control variables were added to the regression model.
4.6
Variables Defined
13
14
4.7
Expected Results
Table 2: Expected results
Variables
Dividend Per Share (DPS)
4.8
Results
Author
Positively
Significant
(2010)
Positively
Significant
Pani (2008)
Negatively
Significant
(1996)
Positively
Significant
Al-Kuwari (2010)
Panel Data
The impact of dividend policy on the performances of the companies on the SEM is tested
by panel data methodology. The use of panel data methodology has certain benefits: it
combines inter-individual differences and intra-individual dynamics, allowing for:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
using the assumption that the companies are heterogeneous, more variability,
more informative data, more degree of freedom and more efficient (Thomas,
2007).
4.9
Time Frame
The selection of the study period was controlled mostly by the factors, such the enlistment
year in the SEM and the availability of data. This study shall concentrate only on companies
that have been enlisted on the SEM in or before 2008 so as to acquire annual reports for the
whole accounting period for the first year of study.
15
4.10
Software Used
Data was inserted in Excel spreadsheet to analyse the panel data and SPSS software was
applied to analyse the data statistically.
16
5.1
Descriptive Statistics
Table 3 shows the descriptive statistics for the variable used in this study for the period
2010 till 2014. It should be noted that some companies faced losses in various financial
periods leading to negative PAT which is in fact Loss After Tax, thus explaining the
minimum value of PAT. DPR is 41.06% on average and RR 54.09% on average. The table
shows a maximum value of 200% for DPR, this indicates that the company has paid out
more in dividend than it had made in net income. This negative minimum DPR value on
the other hand stipulates that the company has made a dividend payment even is the latter
has made a loss.
Table 3: Descriptive analysis
Minimum
5.2
Maximum
Mean
Std.
Deviation
DPS
12
2.637
2.7922
RR
0.5409
0.30891
DPR
-0.6696
0.4106
0.37989
PAT
-163,027,000
4,517,000,000
457,732,149
940,459,516
Table 4 shows the Pearson Correlation coefficients in order to measure the degree of linear
dependence between each variable, values ranging from -1 to +1.
17
5.3
DPS
RR
DPR
PAT
DPS
0.88
RR
0.199
-0.001
DPR
-0.136
0.07
-0.568
PAT
0.313
0.297
0.227
-0.1
Variables
Correlation
DPS
0.88
RR
0.199
DPR
-0.136
PAT
0.313
The above table shows the correlation coefficient between the dependent variable Share
Price with each independent variables. SP has a very strong positive relationship with DPS,
while SP has a very weak, to almost negligent negative relationship with DPR. On the other
hand, there is a weak and moderate positive correlation with RR and PAT respectively.
18
5.4
1.496
Table 6 shows the auto-correlation status of the Model. Values of Durbin-Watson closer to
2 indicates no serial correlation, values less than 2 indicates a positive serial correlation and
values more than 2 shows a negative serial correlation. The figures obtained for Model 1
indicates positive correlation.
5.5
Regression Analysis
A multiple regression has been computed in order to test the hypothesis drawn in the
Methodology chapter. The significance and coefficient values are tabulated below:
Table 7: Regression analysis
Unstandardized
Standardized
Coefficients
Coefficients
Std. Error
Constant
10.867
12.28
DPS
25.691
1.366
RR
0.339
DPR
PAT
Sig.
t
P
Value
Beta
0.885
0.379
0.886
18.804
0.000*
0.15
0.126
2.268
0.026*
-0.271
0.118
-0.125
-2.293
0.024*
7.33E-10
0.000
0.009
0.178
0.859
19
Table 8: ANOVA
F
Regression
Sig.
0.000b
102.951
a. Dependent Variable: SP
b. Predictors: (Constant), PAT, DPR, DPS,
RR
Table 7 above indicates that DPS, RR and DPR all have much worth mentioned relationship
with the share price, having p-value 0.000, 0.026 and 0.024 respectively which are less than
5% and thus are significant. This means that as the value of the three independent variable
fluctuate, the dependent variable, share price, will fluctuate accordingly. PAT on the other
hand is a control variable placed in the model and shows a negative relationship with the
share price. The F-Value defines the statistical significance of the overall model. If F-value
is greater than 4 then the overall model is statistically significant as shown in Table 8.
Further to the results of P-value, t-statistic, F and R2, H1 is therefore accepted.
Table 9: Goodness for fit
Model
1
R2
0.908a
0.824
DPS is the sum of declared dividends for every ordinary share issued. Results from Table
6 witnessed that DPS shows a significant relationship towards share prices. The P Value
shows the level of significance, which is 0.000. This is also supported by the t-statistic
which is more than +2. Many researchers like Akbar and Baig (2010) found the positive
relation between them. Further to this study, it proves that dividends means more earnings
to investors and this will increase the demand for purchase of the companys share on the
market causing it to face an increase in price.
20
5.5.2
Looking at the results from Table 7, it is clear that RR has a worth mentioning association
with the share price. Its significance level is 0.026 which is less than 5% and thus indicates
a positive relationship with share price. This is confirmed by the t-statistic which is slightly
greater than +2. This positive relationship found between RR and share price may indicate
that investors considered the fact that management was retaining more of the earning in the
company for re investment purposes which would lead to more profits and probably higher
dividend payments in the future. Pani (2008), in their study, established a positive
relationship between retention ratio and stock prices. Auther and Kawal (2011) on the other
hand, there was a negative association between the two. Reasoning for this negative
relationship could be that, investors prefer that the firm pay them dividend than retaining
the profit in the firm for internal needs.
5.5.3
DPR has a positive significant relation to share prices. This means that an increase in DPR
will definitely cause an increase in share price and vice versa. P-value showed the level of
significance which is 0.024. Given that DPR indicates the percentage of earnings made by
the company that is paid out as dividend, an increase in same is an indication to the
shareholders and future investors that the company is probably being highly profitable and
would be paying high dividends on a regular basis. This could cause an increase in demand
for purchase of shares of the company and results in an increase of its share price. Similarly,
Nishat and Irfan (2003) obtained a direct relationship between share prices and DPR. In
contrast, Allen and Rachim (1996), Rashid and Rahman (2009) and Nazir et al., (2010)
found negative relationships.
5.5.4
In this study PAT was used as a control variable. It has an immaterial relation with share
price. Table 7 above, shows that PAT has a negative relationship with share price. This
relationship is indicated by the p value of 0.859 and t-statistic value of 0.178, which is less
than +2. In the case of Auther and Kanwal (2011), PAT was used as a control variable and
there was a positive association between the two. In the studies of Pani (2008) and AlKuwari (2010), PAT was used as the independent variable and it formed a positive
relationship with share price. In other words, investors consider an increase in PAT as the
companys growth and better future dividend payout.
21
Conclusion
The purpose of this study was to analyse the impact of dividend policy on share prices of
companies on the stock exchange of Mauritius. Results from the analysis show that the
independent variables have statistically significant relationships with share price. As
established in this paper, shareholders have a preference for dividend income rather than
capital gain. Therefore, shareholders would feel rather uneasy if the companies they invest
in have a low DPR and keep their earnings for future investments. Further to this analysis,
H1 is therefore accepted.
However, it is not advisable for companies to have 100% DPR as it might affect the
economic condition of the companies and could lead to a lack of fund. Also, a company
paying out 100% of its earnings could be a sign that the management lacks innovation and
investment skills and thus on a long term prospect investing in the latter is not prudent. Data
acquired showed that investors should be cautious about investing in companies in the hotel
sector as these companies tend to run on huge losses in certain period and then do not pay
dividend for a few years
Therefore, it is important for companies to decide on an optimal dividend policy that would
suit the need of both the company and its shareholders. This decision should not be one to
be taken solely by the board of directors but also the opinion of the shareholders should be
taken into consideration. Further to that, decisions on the dividend policy would help in the
development and growth of the company.
6.2
Recommendations
22
23
7. LIST OF REFERENCES
Journal:
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and Market Efficiency in Pakistan. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 15 (1), 103-125.
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Ownership Structure on Dividends Policy in Jordanian Companies. Irbid-Jordan: Yarmouk
University
AL-KUWARI, D. 2010. To Pay or Not to Pay: Using Emerging Panel Data to Identify
Factors Influencing Corporate Dividend Payout Decisions. International Research Journal
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ALI, A., ALI JAN, F & SHARIF, I. 2015. Effect of dividend policy on stock prices.
Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, Vol.:3 (1). 56-87
ALLEN, D. E. and RACHIM, V. S. 1996. Dividend Policy and Stock Price Volatility:
Australian Evidence. Applied Financial Economics. 6 (2):175-188
ALLEN, F., BERNARDO, A. E., & WELCH, I. 2000. A Theory of Dividends Based on
Tax Clienteles, Journal of Finance Vol 55, 2499-2536
BHATTACHARYA, S., 1979. Imperfect Information, Dividend Policy, and "the Bird in
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BLACK, F., 1976. The Dividend Puzzle, The Journal of Portfolio Management, 634-639
CHURCH, R. M. 2001. The effective use of secondary data. Brown University. Learning
and motivation. Vol 33. 32-45
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DIAMOND, J.J., 1967, Earnings distribution and the evaluation of shares: Some recent
evidence, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2, 14-29
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26
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Pakistan. 11th Pacific Basin Finance, Economics and Accounting Conference.
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27
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DIVIDEND.COM,
2016.
Top
10
Dividend
Quotes,
[Online].
Available
at
28
8. APPENDICES
Appendix I
Statistical Tables
Descriptive Statistics
N
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Std.
Deviation
DPS
100
.0
12.0
2.637
2.7922
RR
97
0.00%
100.00%
54.0864%
30.89184%
DPR
97
-66.96%
200.00%
41.0604%
37.98889%
PAT
99
4517000000.
457732149.4
940459516.8
163027000.0
34
522
Valid N (listwise)
96
Correlations
SP
SP
Pearson Correlation
RR
DPR
PAT
1.000
.880
.199
-.136
.313
DPS
.880
1.000
-.001
.070
.297
RR
.199
-.001
1.000
-.568
.227
DPR
-.136
.070
-.568
1.000
-.100
PAT
.313
.297
.227
-.100
1.000
.000
.028
.097
.001
DPS
.000
.498
.253
.002
RR
.028
.498
.000
.014
DPR
.097
.253
.000
.169
PAT
.001
.002
.014
.169
SP
93
93
93
93
93
DPS
93
93
93
93
93
RR
93
93
93
93
93
DPR
93
93
93
93
93
PAT
93
93
93
93
93
SP
Sig. (1-tailed)
DPS
29
Model Summaryb
Model
Adjusted R
Std. Error of
Durbin-
Square
Square
the Estimate
Watson
.908a
.824
.816
35.3875
1.496
Sum of
df
Mean Square
Sig.
Squares
Regression
515692.581
128923.145
Residual
110199.954
88
1252.272
Total
625892.536
92
.000b
102.951
a. Dependent Variable: SP
b. Predictors: (Constant), PAT, DPR, DPS, RR
Coefficientsa
Model
Unstandardized
Standardize
Coefficients
Sig.
Collinearity
Statistics
Coefficients
B
Std.
Beta
Toleranc
Error
Constant
10.867
12.280
DPS
25.691
1.366
.339
-.271
RR
DPR
PAT
7.329E010
VIF
e
.885
.379
.886
18.804
.000
.901
1.109
.150
.126
2.268
.026
.647
1.545
.118
-.125
-2.293
.024
.672
1.488
.000
.009
.178
.859
.860
1.163
a. Dependent Variable: SP
30
Appendix II
List of Companies in sample:
1. Automatic System Ltd
2. Caudant Development Limited
3. Compagnie des Magasins Populaires Ltee
4. ENL Commercial Limited
5. ENL Land Ltd
6. Harrel Mallac Ltd
7. Ireland Blyth Ltd
8. Innodis Ltd
9. Lux Island Resorts Ltd
10. Mauritian Eagle Insurance Co. Ltd
11. Mauritius Union Assurance Co. Ltd
12. MCB Group Limited
13. National Investment Trust Ltd
14. Omnicane Ltd
15. P. O. L. I. C. Y Ltd
16. Rogers & Co Ltd
17. Sun Limited
18. Swan General Ltd (formerly Swan Insurance Company Ltd)
19. Terra Mauricia Ltd
20. The United Basalt Products Ltd
31
Appendix III
UNIVERSITY OF MAURITIUS
CENTRE FOR INNOVATIVE AND LIFELONG LEARNERS
PROGRESS LOG
Student Name: PAYANIANDY Muruganandam
Student ID: 1217700
Department: CILL
Programme: BSc (Hons) Financial Management
Title of Dissertation: The impact of dividend policy on share value of companies listed on
the Stock Exchange of Mauritius
Supervisor: Mrs Reena Bhattu Babajee
Project Coordinator: Dr. Boopen Seetanah
Your Progress Log serves as a record of your transferable skills and participation and
attainment as a student for dissertation purposes.
Its purpose is to help you to plan your own dissertation and to record the outcomes.
As well as gaining valuable skills, you will find that the information accumulated in
this Log will prove helpful during the write up of the dissertation.
You should sign the appropriate statement below when you submit your Progress
Log:
I confirm that the information I have given in this Log is a true and accurate record:
Signed: Date: ..
32
Date
12/02/16
Topics/Themes
Discussed
Review synopsis
and discussed
structure of mini
project
Literature Review
and approach to
prepare
methodology
Discussion on
methodology
adopted and steps
to be taken next
02/03/16
21/03/16
30/03/16
Data analysis
18/04/16
Feedback on draft
Comments (If
any)
Supervisors
Initials
Students
Initials
To do
research on
model for
regression
33