Weekly Market Reflection

21 st to 25th November 2016

Market Outlook
Indian Rupee slipped below the important 68-mark towards nine
month low against the greenback as the overseas investors
extended their selling spree of Indian equities and debt following
global emerging market sell-off amid rising US Treasury yields and
Imminent higher interest rate environment arising out of the US
Federal Reserve's hawkish tone along with heavy capital outflows
took a toll on the rupee. The home currency witnessing near term
rout crumbled to the lowest closing since February 29.In the coming
week, FOMC meet is the key event scheduled on 24th November.

Fundamental News
Yellen's rate stance hits Asia FX, bonds; yuan at 8-year low.
India FX Reserves, USD down to $367.04B from previous
$368.23B.
Japanese Economy Gathers Pace in Third Quarter.
China Industrial Production, Retail Sales Rise Less Than
Expected in October.

Currency Future
Currency
Date

Date

USDINR

Reference Rate
Currency Date
Date
11-11-16 18-11-16
USDINR
67.0292 68.0937
EURINR
73.1155 72.2134
GBPINR
84.1753 84.4158
JPYINR
62.9400 61.5600

18-11-16

% Chg

Currencies vs $
Currency
11-1016
Rupee
67.5650

18-11-16

USDINR

67.3450

68.1700

+1.22%

Dollar Index

99.0500

101.41

EURINR

73.2450

72.4250

-1.11%

Euro

1.0846

1.0592

GBPINR

85.0500

84.7225

-0.38%

JPYINR

63.2925

61.8050

-2.35%

Pound

1.2597

1.2355

Global Commodities
Commodit 11-10y
16
Gold
1227.67
Silver
17.34
Crude
43.14
Copper
2.4993

%
Chg
+0.88
%
+2.38
%
2.34%
1.92%

68.1600

11-11-16

Global Updates
Dollar on track for winning week on higher US rate prospects.
UK consumer price inflation rose by 0.9% in the year to
October 2016.
GDP up by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU28.
US Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent in October.
Retail Sales in U.S. Jump More Than Forecast in Broad
Advance.
Housing Starts in U.S. Surged to a Nine-Year High in October.
US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 235,000, a
decrease of 19,000 from the previous week.

%
Change
+1.58%
-1.23%
+0.28%
-2.19%

18-11-16

% Chg

1208.05
16.54
46.33
2.4596

-1.59%
-4.61%
+7.39%
-1.58%

OUR PREVIOUS CALLS UPDATE

Weekly pick
Date
Curren
cy
15/11/1 JPYINR
6

Entry

Exit

P/L

63.000
0

62.500
0

2000
0

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Overview
USDINR

USDINR last week continued the bullish breakout which happened in the previous week. On daily chart, it held above
the trend line so coming from all time highs and the bulls may continue further if it sustains above 68.3100. On lower
side, 68.0000-67.7000 may act as important support range for the pair.

EURINR

EURINR last week mainly hovered around the key support as seen on the daily chart above. In the coming week,
weak trend may continue till it sustains below the important support of 72.6500. On lower side, 72.0000 will act as
major psychological support sustaining below which can result in selling pressure.

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Pivot Table
Currencies

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.8000

67.5000

67.2000

68.3000

68.7000

69.1000

EURINR

72.1000

71.7000

71.3000

72.7000

73.0000

73.5000

GBPINR

84.1000

83.4000

82.5000

85.3000

85.9000

86.5000

JPYINR

61.4000

61.0000

60.5000

62.0000

62.5000

63.0000

Event Calender 21st to 25th November 2016

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

21-Nov-16

5:20 am

JPY

Trade Balance

0.41T

0.35T

21-Nov-16

9:30 pm

EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks

22-Nov-16

3:00 pm

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

5.9B

10.1B

22-Nov-16

8:30 pm

USD

Existing Home Sales

5.43M

5.47M

23-Nov-16

1:30 pm

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

51.5

51.8

23-Nov-16

2:00pm

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

54.8

55.0

23-Nov-16

2:30pm

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

53.2

53.5

23-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.2%

0.1%

23-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

241K

235K

23-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

1.2%

-0.3%

23-Nov-16

8:30pm

USD

New Home Sales

591K

593K

24-Nov-16

12:30am

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

24-Nov-16

2:30pm

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

110.6

110.5

25-Nov-16

5:00am

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

-0.4%

-0.4%

25-Nov-16

3:00 pm

GBP

Second Estimate GDP q/q

0.5%

0.5%

25-Nov-16

3:00 pm

GBP

Prelim Business Investment q/q

-0.2%

1.0%

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Weekly Pick
(Premium Section)

JPYINR continued the weak trend in the last week and closed below the key support as seen on daily chart above.
Selling pressure is expected to continue till it sustains below the given support.
SELL BELOW 61.6000 TARGET 61.0000 SL 62.4000.

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