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InsightsintoEditorial:Climatecalculus
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INSIGHTS

9/29/2016

InsightsintoEditorial:Climatecalculus

WiththeUnitedStates,Chinaand59othercountrieswhoaccountfor48%ofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions
ratifyingtheParisclimatechangeagreement,Indiasdecisiontoratifywithoutanyfurtherdelaywasasensible
move.
ItwillgiveIndiaaseatatthehightablewhere55countrieswhoaccountfor55%oftheworldsGHG
emissionswillmeettodecidehowtogoaboutmeetingthetargetsandthecommitmentsneededtokeep
averageglobaltemperatureriseunder2degreeCelsius.

Abouttheagreement:
TheParisAgreementonclimatechangeisamilestoneinglobalclimatecooperation.Itrecognizestheprinciples
ofequityandcommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilitiesandrespectivecapabilitiesinthelightofdifferent
nationalcircumstances.
Theagreementacknowledgesthedevelopmentimperativesofdevelopingcountries.TheAgreement
recognizesthedevelopingcountriesrighttodevelopmentandtheireffortstoharmonizedevelopmentwith
environment,whileprotectingtheinterestsofthemostvulnerable.
Italsorecognizestheimportanceofsustainablelifestylesandsustainablepatternsofconsumptionwith
developedcountriestakingthelead,andnotestheimportanceofclimatejusticeinitspreamble.
TheobjectiveoftheAgreementfurtherensuresthatitisnotmitigationcentricandincludesother
importantelementssuchasadaptation,lossanddamage,finance,technology,capacitybuildingand
transparencyofactionandsupport.
Pre2020actionsarealsopartofthedecisions.Thedevelopedcountrypartiesareurgedtoscaleuptheir
leveloffinancialsupportwithacompleteroadmaptoachievethegoalofjointlyprovidingUS$100billion
by2020formitigationandadaptationbysignificantlyincreasingadaptationfinancefromcurrentlevels
andtofurtherprovideappropriatetechnologyandcapacitybuildingsupport.

Whatsgoodaboutthisagreement?
Sharedresponsibilities:Unlikepreviousagreementswhichputalltheresponsibilityforreducingemissionson
richcountries,intheParisAgreement,all196signatoriesagreedthateverycountrymusttakeaction,while
acknowledgingthatrichercountriesshouldstartimmediatelyandcutemissionsmoresteeply,whilepoorer
countriescontributionswilldependontheirindividualsituations.
Aratchetmechanism:Thisisthetechnicaltermfortheagreementtosubmitnewpledgesby2020.Itsthe
mostimportantvictorywithintheagreement,asmanylargedevelopingnations,likeIndiaandIndonesia,were
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reluctanttoagreetoasystemthatwouldpressurethemtouptheirambitionwithinthenextdecade.Theratchet
mechanismrequirescountriestoreturntothetablein2020andspellouttheirplansfor2025to2030.This
createstheopportunityfortheworldtopotentiallyputitselfonacoursetostaybelow2C.
Ambitiousabstractgoals:TheParisAgreementincludesthegoalofkeepingwarmingbelow2degreesC.But
atthebehestofthemostvulnerablecountries,suchasthesmallislandstates,italsogoesfurther,callingfor
effortstostaybelow1.5C.ItevenrequeststhattheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeproducea
reportonhowwecouldstaybelow1.5C.

However,thisagreementisfarfromsufficient.Why?
VariousstudiesshowthatevenifallINDCtargetswereachieved,theworldwouldstillbeheadingtowards
eventualwarmingofsome2.73.4Cabovepreindustriallevels.
Overthepastdecade,energyproductivityhasgrownbyonly0.7%annually,andtheshareofzerocarbon
energyrosebyonly0.1percentagepointperyear.Moreover,eveniftheINDCswerefullyimplemented,
theseannualgrowthrateswouldreachonly1.8%and0.4percentagepoints,respectively.

So,whatneedstobedonenow?
Tokeepwarmingwellbelow2C,emissionsin2030mustbemorethan30%belowthoseenvisagedin
theINDCs.Wemustalsoreduceenergyrelatedemissionsby70%from2010levels,withfurthercuts
neededtoachievenetzeroemissionsby2060.
Thiswillrequirebothanimprovementinenergyproductivity(theamountofincomeproducedperunitof
energyconsumed)ofatleast3%peryearandtherapiddecarbonizationofenergysupply,withtheshare
ofzerocarbonenergyincreasingbyatleastonepercentagepointeachyear.
Solarpowercanmakeadifferencehere.Solarpowercostshavefallen80%since2008.Insomeplaces,
newsupplycontractshavesetpricesaslowas$0.06perkilowatthour,makingsolarpowerfully
competitivewithcoalandnaturalgas.
Investmentsinrenewablecapacityneedtobematchedbyacceleratedprogressinbatterytechnology,or
byothertoolstomatchelectricitydemandtointermittentsupply.
Roadtransportandaviation,whichcurrentlyrelyalmostentirelyonliquidfossilfuels,accountfor30%of
totalenergyconsumption.Decarbonizationoftheseactivitieswillrequireelectrificationortheuseof
hydrogenorbiofuels.
Heatingbuildingsisanotherareawheremajorchangesareneeded.Here,themorewidespreaduseof
zerocarbonelectricity,insteadoffossilfuelbasedenergy,couldhaveamajorimpact.Buttherearealso
importantopportunitiestodesignandconstructbuildingsandcitiesthataresubstantiallymoreenergy
efficient.
Energyusebyheavyindustrypresentschallengesthatareoftenignored.Metals,chemicals,cementand
plasticsarevitalbuildingblocksofthemoderneconomy,andinvolveprocessesthatcannotbeeasily
electrified.Decarbonizationmayinsteadrequiretheapplicationofcarboncaptureandstorage
technologies,whilenewlydesignedbuildingmaterialscouldreducedemandforcarbonintensiveinputs.
Governmentshaveavitalroletoplay,butso,too,doincumbentfossilfuelbasedenergycompaniesand
newentrantcompaniesdeployingordevelopingnewtechnologies.NGOscanhelptoidentifyrequired
policiesandholdgovernmentsandcompaniestoaccount.Individualconsumersarealsoimportant,
becausetheirbehaviourshapesenergydemand.

Nowthatthedecisiontoratifyhasbeentaken,Indiamustgearuptowardsmeetingthreekeycommitments:

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ReducingGHGemissionsin2030by3335%from2005levels.
Scaleupshareofnonfossilfuelsto40%oftotalenergyproduction.
Createanadditionalcarbonsinkof2.53billiontonnesthroughenhancingforestandtreecover,allby
2030.

However,accordingtofewexperts,INDCsproposedbyIndiaarenotrealistic.Why?
TheINDCsproposetorelyonexistingmechanismswithoutareviewofitsearlieroutcomes.Several
reports,evenfromthegovernment,havequestionedtheefficacyofearlierprogrammes.
Fixingconcretetargetsforafforestationalsoopenupuncomfortablequestionsforthegovernmentsuch
astheavailabilityoflandforgreening.
Theproposedtargetsareisolatedfromtheothersectoralgrowthtargetssuchasthoseunderclean
energythroughnuclear,cleancoalandhydropowerprojects.Thecommitmentstoexpandthesesectors
donotacknowledgetheirfootprintonforestareas.Almostallsuchenergyprojectswouldrequirethe
diversionofforestlandundertheForest(Conservation)Act.Andsuchforestdiversionisnotaccounted
forinthegrowthprojectionsmade.
Thecurrentrateofforestdiversiontootheruseslikecoalmining,powergeneration,constructionofroads
orportsisapproximately35,000haannually.Therearependingprojectproposalsthatseekthediversion
of3414.84haofforestland.Thesediversionsarenottakenintoaccount.
Thegovernmenthassuggestedthattheparticipationoftheprivatesectorwillgreendegradedforests.
However,theprivatesectorhasonlyshownapropensityfordeforestation.
Eventhescientificallytrainedbureaucracyhassofarnotbeenabletoachievenationalforestrytargets.
Evenifthetargetisachieved,thereisnoguaranteethattheseareaswillnotbedivertedfornonforest
useifthelatterseemsmorebeneficialinmonetaryterms.

Wayahead:
Withclimatecommitmentsbecomingalmostinevitable,anationalconsultativeprocessonlowcarbonstrategies
cannotbedelayed.InordertocomplywiththeParisprocess,everyaspectofenergyusewouldneedprecise
measurementintheyearsahead,whichseveralsectorsoftheeconomyareillequippedtodoatpresent.
UpgradingtheelectricitygridtotakeinhighervolumesofrenewablepowerisanurgentnecessityifIndia
istorealisethenationalgoalsubmittedtotheUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChangetoinstall
100gigawattsofsolarpowercapacityby2022.
Aboldnewpolicyonurbandesigntocurbemissionsfrombuildingsandtransporthastobewrittenintoall
relevantlegislation.
SuchfarreachingstepscanbetakenonlywiththeactiveparticipationofStategovernments,manyof
whichremainontheperipheryofthediscussion.Thatneedstochange,andablueprintforactionhasto
bedrawnup,ifaconvincingcaseistobemadeforassistancefromthe$100billionayearthattherich
countriesaretoputtogetherby2020.
Fundamentally,nationalpolicyshouldmandateevenhigherlevelsoftaxesonfossilfuelsandtransferthe
benefitstoecofriendlyoptions,beitsolarpanels,efficientlightbulbs,bicycles,greenbuses/trains,and
greeninginitiatives.

Conclusion:

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IndiahasestimatedthattheadaptationandmitigationactionsareestimatedtocostUS$2.5trillionbetweennow
and2030butthebigquestioniswhetherwecanwriggleoutcommitmentsfromthedevelopedcountrieson
internationalclimatefinance.Thoughthedevelopedblocmayhaveavoideditshistoricalresponsibility,Indiacan
stillpressforaclimatejusticeparadigmcentredaroundfinancingmitigationactivities.Iftheworldisserious
aboutfightingclimatechangetogether,developednationsshouldopenpursestringsandofferfreetransferof
mitigationtechnologies.

Copyright(C)INSIGHTSACTIVELEARNING

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