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Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220 232

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Effect of culling age of does on milk and meat production in

Japanese-Saanen goats
K. Oishi a , A.K. Kahi b , Y. Nagura c , M. Fujita c , H. Hirooka a,
a

Laboratory of Animal Husbandry Resources, Division of Applied Biosciences, Graduate School of Agriculture,
Kyoto University, 606 8502 Kyoto, Japan
Animal Breeding and Genetics Group, Department of Animal Sciences, Egerton University, P. O. Box 536, 20115 Egerton, Kenya
c
Independent Administrative Institution of National Livestock Breeding Centre Nagano station, 385 0007 Saku, Japan
Received 24 November 2006; received in revised form 8 May 2007; accepted 8 May 2007

Abstract
A functional herd dynamics model was developed to estimate the effect of culling age on milk and meat production for
Japanese-Saanen goats in relation to changes in prices of milk and meat. The model simulates life cycle production of bucks and
does and their kids. Every production trait is first modelled as an individual trait and thereafter as a trait in the herd using a herd
dynamics model. At the individual level, the survival curve function, the litter size function and the production traits function are
combined. Data on growth and lactation were used to fit growth and lactation curves to estimated parameters using non-linear least
squares regression technique and used in the production traits function. Using herd dynamics, the individual level functions are
combined with the total number of animals function to estimate the total herd output and income efficiency at the herd level. Here,
variables of culling days including the effect of difference in meat price value among goat categories (bucks, does, male kids and
female kids) are used. Analysis of interrelations among the culling days of does, the price ratio and the income efficiency indicated
that optimal culling days of does was shortened with an increase in the price ratio of meat to milk. However, when meat price value
was different among goat categories according to actual situation of Japanese goat production, the optimal culling days of does
could be fixed regardless of the change in price ratio and was calculated as 1730 days. This functional herd dynamics model can aid
in decision-making regarding culling under several situations especially when there is a wide fluctuation in prices at local markets.
2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Japanese-Saanen; Herd dynamics model; Culling age; Income efficiency

1. Introduction
The population of goats in the world rapidly increased
by about 60% between 1980 and 2000, not only in
developing countries but also in developed countries
(Morand-Fehr et al., 2004). There are different goat

Corresponding author. Tel.: +81 75 753 6363; fax: +81 75 753

6365.
E-mail address: hirooka@kais.kyoto-u.ac.jp (H. Hirooka).
1871-1413/$ - see front matter 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.livsci.2007.05.003

breeds that are adaptable to various production environment and objectives (Galal, 2005) and are raised under
diverse feeding regime and production scales regardless
of the economic situation of the respective country.
Goats have been mentioned as a possible avenue for
poverty reduction especially in developing countries
(Peacock, 2005). However, the role and impact of goats
for sustainable development has been underestimated
despite their economic potentials (Dubeuf et al., 2004).
The goat industry in Japan is at its infancy with a total
population size of 30,000, mostly Japanese-Saanens and

K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

their crossbreds. Japanese-Saanens are kept as dairy goats

but are also utilized for meat production, although the goat
meat market is not well developed in Japan. Prices of goat
milk and meat are variable and depend on the acceptance
of these products in different regions. Therefore, any goat
production strategy should consider the differences in
prices of milk and meat between regions and any factor
that might influence the output levels of these products.
The culling strategy of does directly influence milk and
meat production and therefore making optimal culling
decision becomes important. There is a need to quantify
the effect of culling policy on milk and meat production in
Japanese-Saanen goats.
Culling strategies have been investigated especially
in dairy herds since culling decisions have an important
influence on the economic performance of the production enterprise (Lehenbauer and Oltjen, 1998). Various
models based on dynamic programming (Van Arendonk,
1985) and hierarchic Markov processes (Kristensen,
1987) have been developed to investigate optimisation

221

of culling decisions in dairy herds. However, illustrative

case studies of culling decision optimisation in dualpurpose animals such as goats are scarce.
The objective of this study was to develop a
functionally programmed herd dynamics model that
can be used to estimate the effect of culling age on the
trade-off, in terms of the income efficiency, between
milk and meat production in Japanese-Saanen goats. The
trade-off was analysed in relation to changes in prices of
goat milk and meat in Japan. The herd model can be used
to analyse the income efficiency for other dual-purpose
productions under various production situations.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Functional programming
Functional programming consists entirely of functions
and contributes greatly to modularity. Hughes (1989)
mentioned that modularity is the key for successful

Fig. 1. Outline of the model structure.

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K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

programming. Good modularity of functional programming leads to short programs that are flexible and can
easily be modified and checked for programming errors.
When a module is made of functions, the expression of the
module is not immediately evaluated, but is instead
evaluated each time the value of the expression is
required. This feature is the so-called Delayed assignment or Lazy evaluation. Once smaller and more
general modules are modelled, they can be used more
widely, easing subsequent programming. By evaluating
the results, users can then refine the original modules
(Wolfram Research, 2003).
2.2. Model structure and data source
Fig. 1 shows the structure of the model. This model
consists of composed modules that are expressed as
functions. Every production trait is first modelled as an
individual trait and thereafter as a trait in the herd using a
herd dynamics model. At the individual level, the
survival curve function, the litter size function and the
production traits function are combined. At the herd
level, the total number of animals function binds to the

individual functions to estimate the total herd output and

income efficiency. The explanation of symbols and
several fixed parameters is shown in Table 1, and the
explanation of functions is shown in Table 2.
Data for the survival curve and litter size functions
were from Bosman et al. (1997). The production traits
function at the individual levels requires data on body
weights, daily milk yields and metabolizable energy
(ME) intake. These data were obtained on JapaneseSaanen from the Nagano Station of the National
Livestock Breeding Centre. The data comprised of
monthly body weight changes (kg/day) (n = 8 for males;
n = 29 for females), weekly milk yields of primiparous
does (kg/day) (n = 29), percentage of average daily milk
yield in different parities in relation to first parity (%)
(n = 69 for 2nd to 5th parity; n = 36 for 6th parity; n = 20
for 7th parity; n = 11 for 8th parity; and n = 2 for 9th
parity). In addition, data on the probability of goat litter
sizes in different parities (%) were available from 714
kids at the Centre and was used in the litter size function.
Prices of milk and meat were derived from the reports of
Japan Livestock Technology Association (1998, 2001).
All simulations were based on a one-day time step,

Table 1
Explanation of symbols and several fixed parameters
Symbols
x (subscript)
x (subscript)
T
a, k, ts
A, B, C
lmilk
A, B, C
M
cl
tdo
tpreg
cr
op
ms
ccr
mt
pa
ls
lsmx
psex
trpfst
tcullx
pamx
TNf
TNm
Px
Pmilk
pr

Units

d
d
d
d
d
%
d
d
%
n
n
n
n
%
d
d
n
n
n
/kg

Explanations
m: males, f : females, k: kids
1: bucks, 2: does, 3: male kids, 4: female kids
Days of age
Parameters of Brody's curve for growth
Parameters of Williams' curve for lactation
Lactating length from parturition (=Lmilk(T ))
Parameters of Wood's curve for correction of lactation
Maximum lifespan of goats
Length of reproduction cycle
Length of the mean kidding to conception interval
Length of pregnant period
Conception rate
Mean oestrous period
Length of mating season for seasonal reproduction
Corrected cr for seasonal reproduction
Mating trial times in the mating season
Number of parity (=Pa(T ))
Litter size per parity
Maximum litter size of the animal
Sex ratio of litters
Age when first reproduction is done
Culling age
Maximum reproduction times when the culling is considered
Number of total does in a herd
Number of total bucks in a herd
Rate of the difference in meat price value
Default price of milk
Price ratio of meat to milk

Default values

2920
365
215
150
0.6
21
90

0.5
378

20
4
200

K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

223

which were performed using Mathematica 5.0 (Wolfram

Research, 2003).
2.2.1. Individual level
2.2.1.1. Survival curve function. The model requires
that the survival curve is determined by the user and
is calculated using the life table method (Cutler and
Ederer, 1958). The CutlerEderer life table method
begins with division of animal's lifetime into several
intervals. First, survival rates at each interval are
calculated. These rates are later multiplied to calculate
the cumulative survival rates from birth. Finally, by
setting ages of animals as independent variables and
cumulative survival rates as dependent variables, the
survival curve function is determined using linear
interpolation and is expressed as:
sr SurvT 0VT VM

where sr is the survival rate (%), T is age (days) and M

is the maximum lifespan of the animals (days). The
relationship between age T and sr is shown in Fig. 2.
The survival curve function becomes zero when the
condition of 0 T M is not met.
Because of lack of information about survival rates
for Japanese Saanens, the cumulative survival rates of
goats derived from Bosman et al. (1997) were used in

Fig. 2. An example of the survival curve; T: days of age, sr: survival

rates, m: maximum lifespan of animals, Surv (T ): the function of the
survival curve.

this study and corrected by fitting actual pre-weaning

mortality in Japanese Saanens (Table 3). The maximum
lifespan of animals M was a time horizon of the
simulation and was set to 2920 days. The data in Table 3
can directly be used to describe the survival curve. There
is a decrease in the survival rate in the pre-weaning
period. Usually, survival rate is also influenced by litter
size, parity of dam, mating season, and birth weight
(Wilson et al., 1985; Hary, 2002). However, these
factors were not accounted for in the model since their
effect is variable and site-specific. When the effect of a
factor can clearly be determined, including this in the
model would be beneficial.

Table 2
Explanation of functions
Symbols

Units

Explanations

Surv(T )
p( pa,ls)
Ls( pa)
W(T )
Ypr(Imilk )
Y( pa)
Y(T )
MEx(T )
repx(tcullf , tcullx)
Tnbx(tcullf)
Tnbkidx(tcullf , tcullx)
Nf (T, tcullf)
Nm(T,tcullf , tcullm)
Nkidx(T, tcullf , tcullx)
Milk(tcullf)
Meatx(tcullf, tcullm, tcullk)
ME(tcullf, tcullm, tcullk)
Ef Milk(tcullf, tcullm, tcullk)
Ef Meatx(tcullf, tcullm, tcullk)
Ef MilkIncome(tcullf, tcullm, tcullk)
Ef MeatIncome(tcullf, tcullm, tcullk)
EfIncome(tcullf, tcullm, tcullk)

%
%
n
kg
kg/d

Survival curve function (= sr)

Probability of obtaining litter size ls in parity pa
Litter size function
Body weight of goats
Daily milk yield of primiparous does
Effect of parity on lactation (Y(1) = 100)
Daily milk yield of does
Metabolisable energy intake
Replacement rate for steady-state herd
Total number of newborns function
Total number of newborns function for kids
Number of does at an age class T
Number of bucks at an age class T
Number of kids at an age class T
Total milk yield for a herd
Total meat yield for a categoryx in a herd
Total ME requirement for a herd
Energy-based milk yield efficiency for a herd
Energy-based meat yield efficiency for a categoryx in a herd
Energy-based income efficiency for milk production in a herd
Energy-based income efficiency for meat production in a herd
Energy-based income efficiency for a herd

kg/d
MJ/d
%
n
n
n
n
n
kg
kg
GJ
kg/GJ
kg/GJ
/GJ
/GJ
/GJ

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K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

Table 3
Cumulative survival rates of goat a
Days

Survival rates

0
15
30
60
90
180
360
720
1080
1440
1800
2160
2520
2880

1.000
0.953
0.915
0.860
0.800
0.752
0.714
0.657
0.605
0.484
0.319
0.096
0.010
0.000

lsmx
X

Lsf pa psex  Ls pa

The mean kidding to conception interval is fixed

because cl is fixed as one year as reproduction is
seasonal. Thus, tdo is equal to (365 tpreg). The mating
trial period cannot be prolonged over the length of
mating season. It is therefore necessary to take into
account the females that cannot conceive. This requires
a corrected conception rate ccr calculated according to
Bailie (1982):
ccr cr cr1  cr cr1  cr2 : : : cr1  crmt1
mt1
X
cr 
1  cri 1

3
where cr is the conception rate for each mating trial (%)
and mt is calculated as mt = [ms / op] + 1 where ms is the
length of mating season (days) and op is the mean length
of the oestrous cycle (days). Therefore, mt indicates the
maximum mating times and must be an integer. To
simplify the calculation, it is assumed that the ccr (%) of
females conceive all at once at a date in the mating season.
The function to calculate litter size is:
Lspa ccr 

lsmx
X
i1

ppa; i  i

where psex is sex ratio of female litters and is set to 0.5

as the initial value.

i1

Table 4 shows probability of goat litter sizes in

different parities. The number of female in each litter is
simply calculated as:

2.2.1.2. Litter size function. The reproduction cycle cl

(days) is defined as the period between subsequent
parturitions and is the sum of the mean kidding to
conception interval (tdo, days) and the gestation period
(tpreg, days).

p pa; i 1:

i1

a
Survival rates derived from Bosman et al. (1997) were corrected by
fitting pre-weaning mortality in Japanese Saanens.

cl tdo tpreg :

where p( pa,i) is the probability of obtaining litter size i

in parity pa, lsmx is the maximum number of litter sizes
and was set to 4. It should be noted that:

2.2.1.3. Production traits function. The data on

monthly body weight changes in each sex were used
to fit the Brody's growth curve (Brody, 1945). The
algebraic form of growth curves proposed is expressed
as:
W T a1  ekT ts kg

where T is the day of age, a, k and ts are growth curve

parameters estimated from data source. Similarly, data
on weekly milk yields were used to fit the William's
lactation curve (Williams, 1993a,b), and is expressed
as:
Yprlmilk AexpfB1 lmilk V=2lmilk V Clmilk V2
1:01=lmilk g kg=day

where lmilk is the length of lactation, lmilk = (lmilk 150) /

100. The William's lactation curve was only for
estimation of milk yield for primiparous does. In order
to include the effect of parity, data on the percentage of
average daily milk yield in different parities in relation to
first parity were used to fit Wood's lactation curve
(Wood, 1967) to correct for parameter A from William's
lactation curve. Although Williams (1993b) corrected

Table 4
Probability of goat litter sizes in different parities
Litter size

Parity

1
2
3
4

1
0.430
0.516
0.054
0.000

2
0.253
0.532
0.188
0.026

3
0.198
0.517
0.267
0.017

4
0.163
0.522
0.304
0.011

5
0.265
0.471
0.250
0.015

6
0.306
0.408
0.265
0.020

7
0.306
0.408
0.265
0.020

K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

Table 5
Estimated parameters for three non-linear regression curves

This value is not low for lactating goats in developed

countries, compared to the 900.8 kg of milk per lactation
which was the average record for Saanens in USA
(AIPL, 2005).

Brody's growth curve

a
k
ts
R2

For males (n = 8)

For females (n = 29)

Mean

S.D.

Mean

S.D.

86.94428
0.00339
6.59271
0.94628

14.64291
0.00069
4.75235
0.02810

73.50046
0.00334
8.87575
0.95690

8.84526
0.00056
5.91154
0.01325

Wood's curve a

William's lactation curve

(n = 29)

Mean

A
B
C
R2

2.34437
0.56436
0.00690
0.86857

S.D.
0.35197
0.18949
0.09091
0.08046

A
B
C
R2

225

1.19245
0.62117
0.16002
0.90881

a
For correction of the lactation curve parameter A concerning the
effect of parity.

2.2.2. Herd level

2.2.2.1. Herd dynamics. Fig. 3 shows the herd
dynamics. Four animal categories can be distinguished:
bucks, does, male kids and female kids. Although
number of goats decreases because of the change in
survival rate between each reproduction, total number of
goats in a herd is held constant at the beginning of each
reproduction cycle by the replacement rate function of
does expressed as:
repf tcullf 1

pamx tcullf

Lsf i  Survi  1  cl trpfst  ccri

i1

parameter A using multiple linear regression equations,

this model uses Wood's lactation curve because of high
value of the goodness of fit (R2). The Wood's lactation
curve is expressed as:
Y Vpa AVpaB VeC Vpa %

where pa is the parity.

Brody's parameter a, k and ts, William's parameters
A, B and C and Wood's parameters A, B and C were
estimated using non-linear least squares regression
technique by Marquardt (1963) iteration. The lactation
curve for an individual doe was finally calculated as:
Y pa; lmilk Y Vpa=100
 Yprlmilk kg=day:

10

11
where tcullf is the does' culling age (days), pamx (n) is a
maximum reproduction time when the tcullf is considered
and calculated as pamx = [(tcullf trpfst) / cl] + 1 and trpfst
is the age at first reproduction (days). The denominator
in Eq. (11) indicates theoretically the sum of litters from
one doe. After each reproduction season, does which fail
to conceive are culled at the end of first mating season
(for nonparous does) or at the end of lactating period (for
parous does). Using repf (tcullf), the steady-state does
system is set as:
TNf Nf 1st parity Nf 2nd parity Nf 3rd parity
: : : Nf nth parity

The parity pa and the lactation length lmilk can be

represented by the function of T (days) and thus can be
transformed to the functions Pa(T ) and Lmilk(T ) as
shown in Appendix. Also shown are the equations used
in estimating the ME requirement at age T (ME(T )) and
were based on Agricultural and Food Research Council
(1993, 1998).
Table 5 shows parameters estimated using Brody's
growth curve and William's and Wood's lactation
curves. The goodness of fit (R2) was high for all curves
and therefore suitable for estimation of the production
capacity of goats. At a maximum weight of 73.5 kg for
females, the average milk yield per year was 843.8 kg.

pamxt
Xcullf

Nf i  1  cl t rpfst ; tcullf

i1

Tnbf tcullf  repf tcullf



pamxt
Xcullf
i1

Survi  1  cl trpfst  ccri

12
where TNf (n) is the total number of does in a herd at the
beginning of each reproduction cycle, Tnbf (tcullf) is the
newborn females' function and Nf (T,tcullf) is the number
of does an age class T (days). Nf (T, tcullf) is then
determined by Tnbf (tcullf), the survival rate to age T and

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K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

Numbers of bucks, male kids and female kids at an

age class T (days) [Nm(T, tcullf, tcullm), Nkidf (T, tcullf) and
Nkidm(T, tcullf, tcullm), respectively] are derived from each
total newborn function and the survivability.
2.2.2.2. Total herd output. Total herd output for production traits is calculated using the functions for number of
animals and goat production traits at an individual level.
The herd level's functions for milk yield (Milk(tcullf)),
meat yields for each category [Meat1(tcullf, tcullm) for
bucks, Meat2(tcullf) for does, Meat3(tcullf, tcullm, tcullk) for
male kids, Meat4(tcullf, tcullk) for female kids] and total
ME requirement (ME(tcullf, tcullm, tcullk)) are estimated as:
Milktcullf

t cullf
X

Y i  Nf i; tcullf

18

i1

Meat 1 tcullf ; tcullm

t cullm
X

Wm iNm i; tcullf ; tcullm

i1

Meat 2 tcullf

Fig. 3. Scheme of the herd dynamics for goat production.

t cullf
X

19
Wf i  Nf i; tcullf

i1

number of does that fail to conceive. From the Eq. (12),

Tnbf (tcullf) is calculated as:

Tnbf tcullf TNf = repf tcullf 

pamxt
Xcullf

t cullk
X

Wm i  Nm i; tcullf ; tcullm

i1

Meat 4 tcullf ; tcullk

Survi  1  cl trpfst  ccri :

i1

Meat3 tcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk

20

t cullk
X

21
Wf i  Nkidf i; tcullf

22

i1

13

In a similar manner, the newborn males' function

Tnbm(tcullf) and the replacement rate function for bucks
are calculated using the sex ratio psex as:

MEtcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk

t cullm
X
MEm j  Nm j; tcullf ; tcullm
j1
t cullf
X
MEf i  Nf i; tcullf
i1

Tnbm tcullf Tnbf tcullf  1  psex=psex

14

repm tcullf ; tcullm TNm = Tnbm tcullf



pamxt
Xcullm

t cullk
X
MEm k  Nkidm k; tcullf ; tcullm
k1

Survi  1  cl trpfst

i1

15
where tcullm is the bucks' culling age. For each sex,
the rates at which newborns become early-culling kids
are:
Tnbkidf tcullf 1  repf tcullf  Tnbf tcullf

16

Tnbkidm tcullf ; tcullm 1  repm tcullf ; tcullm

 Tnbm tcullf ; tcullm :

17

MEf k  Nkidf k; tcullf

23

where tcullk is the fatten kids' culling age. The quantity of

meat should usually be derived from empty body weight.
However, due to scarcity of information on empty body
weight of goats in Japan, the live body weight was
assumed equal to the empty body weight.
2.2.2.3. Income efficiency. The effect of culling
policy on the relation between milk and meat
production in Japanese-Saanen goats was determined
by estimating income efficiency. Use of income
efficiency was necessitated by the fact that there is
scarcity of information on production costs of goats in

K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

227

Japan. Determination of income efficiency requires the

estimation of biological efficiency in energy terms. The
energy-based efficiency functions for milk and meat
production were defined as:

(Yen, ). Including the difference in price unit between

milk and meat, the income efficiency for a herd was
finally defined as:

Ef Milktcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk

Milktcullf =MEtcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk

Ef Incometcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk

Ef MilkIncometcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk
pr  Ef MeatIncometcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk

24

Ef Meat x Vtcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk

Meat x Vtcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk =MEtcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk
25
where subscript x in Eq. (25) represents the different
categories.
The income efficiency functions for milk and meat
production excluded the difference in price unit between
milk and meat, and were defined respectively as:
Ef MilkIncometcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk
Ef Milktcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk  Pmilk

26

Ef MeatIncometcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk

4
X

Px V  Ef Meat x Vtcullf ; tcullm ; tcullk

x V1

 Pmilk

27

where Px is the rate of the difference in meat price value

among categories and Pmilk is unit price of milk per kg

28

where pr is the price ratio of meat to milk. Maximisation

of the income efficiency was assumed to be the production
objective.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Effect of culling age of does on herd composition
Table 6 shows the effect of tcullf on herd dynamics
parameters. The herd composition changed with an
increase in tcullf but the sum of Nf (pa) was constant. An
increase in tcullf led to a gradual reduction in the
replacement rate of does (repf) as a result of the decrease
in survival rate of does. The replacement decreased with
an increase in the culling age of does. The replacement
rate at the oldest culling age was 37.8%, which is higher
than 34.3% reported by Malher et al. (2001) for actual
dairy goat production in France. However, when a
survival rate similar to that reported by Malher et al.

Table 6
Effect of the change in culling age of does (tcullf) on herd dynamics parameters
Culling age of does (days)
Parameters

730

1095

1460

1825

2190

2555

Nf (1)
Nf (2)
Nf (3)
Nf (4)
Nf (5)
Nf (6)
Nf (7)
TNf
repf (%)
Tnbf
Tnbf for kids
Tnbf for does
TNm (tcullm = 1460)
repm (%)
Tnbm
Tnbm for kids
Tnbm for bucks

10.5099
9.4901
0
0
0
0
0
20
0.8372
17.9530
2.9219
15.0311
4
0.1153
17.6217
15.5892
2.0325

7.3666
6.6518
5.9816
0
0
0
0
20
0.5584
18.8673
8.3317
10.5356
4
0.1097
18.5191
16.4867
2.0325

5.9714
5.3920
4.8487
3.7878
0
0
0
20
0.4404
19.3905
10.8503
8.5402
4
0.1068
19.0327
17.0002
2.0325

5.3263
4.8095
4.3249
3.3786
2.1606
0
0
20
0.3912
19.4747
11.8571
7.6176
4
0.1063
19.1153
17.0829
2.0325

5.1639
4.6628
4.1930
3.2755
2.0947
0.6101
0
20
0.3789
19.4898
12.1046
7.3852
4
0.1062
19.1302
17.0977
2.0325

5.1484
4.6488
4.1805
3.2657
2.0885
0.6083
0.0598
20
0.3778
19.4913
12.1281
7.3632
4
0.1062
19.1316
17.0991
2.0325

Description of parameters is shown in Tables 1 and 2.

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K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

Fig. 4. Interrelationships among the culling age of does tcullf, price ratio pr and income efficiency EfIncome, when there are no differences in meat
price value among different categories.

(2001) was used in this study, repf was calculated as

34.44%, indicating that the outputs from this model
were close to reality.
3.2. Interrelations among the culling age of does, price
ratio and income efficiency
Fig. 4 shows the interrelations among tcullf, pr and
EfIncome when there are no differences in meat price
value among different categories. In this case, P1: P2: P3:
P4 in the Eq. (27) was set to 1:1:1:1. The initial values of
tcullm and tcullk were set to 1460 and 365 (days) and unit
price of milk was set to 200 per kg (Japan Livestock
Technology Association, 1998, 2001). The arrows in the
figure are pointing at tcullf which maximised EfIncome at
different pr. The highest EfIncome was achieved at
the lowest tcullf and highest pr. A high pr reflects a
situation where meat production is more important than
milk production. In this case, culling animals at a younger
age is important. In contrast, a low pr indicates that milk
production is important and EfIncome is maximised
at older tcullf represented by point p5 on Fig. 4. This
indicates that the optimal combination of milk and
meat production is determined by pr and the trade-off
between milk and meat production is controlled by tcullf.

This is consistent with the findings of Konandreas et al.

(1983).
Fig. 5 shows the interrelations among tcullf, pr and
EfIncome when there are differences in meat price value
among different categories. Differences in meat price
value among different categories were set as 0.5, 0.4, 1.0
and 0.8 in bucks, does, male kids and female kids,
respectively (Japan Livestock Technology Association,
1998, 2001). In contrast to the results presented in Fig. 4,
a change in pr did not affect tcullf and EfIncome was
maximised at point p3. This indicates that optimal tcullf is
fixed when there are differences in meat price value
among different categories. The difference between
Figs. 4 and 5 has demonstrated the effect of differences in
meat price value among different categories on culling
decisions.
The simulated optimal tcullf was approximately
1730 days (Fig. 5). Malher et al. (2001) reported
average tcullf of 4.13 year (1507 days) in dairy goat
farms in France. They used farm data that excluded
information on market conditions. Usually, the simulated optimal age is different from the actual culling age
estimated using field data (Rajala-Schultz and Grhn,
2001). While simulation is a representation of reality, it
further allows for inclusion of essential factors (e.g.

K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

229

Fig. 5. Interrelationships among the culling age of does tcullf, price ratio pr and income efficiency EfIncome, when there are differences in meat price
value among different categories. Differences in meat price value among different categories were set as 0.5, 0.4, 1.0 and 0.8 in bucks, does, male kids
and female kids, respectively.

production and market conditions, energy costs). This

study offers recommendations on tcullf that leads to
optimal income efficiency in production systems that are
constrained by scarcity of information on production
costs.
Decision of culling age of females has been shown to
have great impact on herd dynamics (Hary, 2004). The
culling age is flexible and is under the influence of the
management regime prevailing in a production system.
In Brazil, culling age has been reported to significantly
affect the quality of goat meat (Madruga et al., 1999).
Difference in meat quality generates price differences.
For instance, carcass value traits such as degree of
marbling and fat depth are economically important traits
in Japanese (Hirooka and Groen, 1999) and Australian
(Kahi et al., 2003) beef cattle production systems.
Therefore, inclusion of a function in this model that can
express the relationship between change in meat price
value and some traits such as body weight change and
carcass traits can dramatically improve the applicability
of the model.
Different models have been used to determine herd
dynamics and performance of livestock production en-

erprises. For example, Van Arendonk (1985) used a

dynamic model to determine the culling policy for
optimizing future dairy cattle production by setting
production traits as state parameters. Hirooka et al.
(1998) used a bio-economic simulation model for beef
cattle production to determine breeding objectives but
fixed the culling age of cows and their herd sizes. The
model used in this study composed of functions. In
functional programming, most variables, such as
survival rates, non-linear curves' parameters and
reproduction parameters, can easily be changed according to the target objectives and information available.
Because of scarcity of the information, the survival rates
used in this study were based on literature values but
corrected by fitting actual pre-weaning mortality in
Japanese Saanens. Use of Japanese Saanen specific
information on survivability will improve accuracy of
this model simulation. Lehenbauer and Oltjen (1998)
mentioned that improvements in model components
related to biological factors such as milk production,
reproductive status and health status, could enhance the
culling decision support system to offer an appropriate
economic framework of production. This model applied

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K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

modules that contained variables that can easily be

changed to suit changes in several animal production
circumstances such as fluctuation in prices at local
markets.
4. Conclusions
The model developed in this study estimated well
the effect of culling age on the relations between milk
and meat production in Japanese-Saanen goats. The
change in prices of goat milk and meat had great effect
on culling decision of does and the optimal culling
age was 1730 days. This study showed that culling
strategies influence income efficiency. This model
could help in making culling decisions especially for
farmers keeping livestock to produce milk and meat
under the situation where market conditions are not
stable.
Appendix

milk yield of Japanese-Saanen goats were utilized for

estimation of parameters of the Brody's growth curve
(Brody, 1945) and the William's lactation curve
(Williams, 1993a,b). The lactation curve was corrected
by the Wood's curve (Wood, 1967), including the effect
of parity. Values of all functions are equal to zero when
the condition of 0 T M is not true. The explanation of
symbols, functions and several fixed parameters is
shown in Table 7.
1. Range setting of T by change in parity
Setting of parity
pa PaT T  trpfst =cl 1 z0
Pregnant period
tmtfst cl  PaT  1VT Vtrpfst cl  PaT  1

Lactation period

The series of mathematical expressions about goat

production at an individual level was mainly based on
AFRC (1998). Raw data of body weight change and

trpfst cl  PaT  1
VT Vtrpfst cl  PaT  1 tmilk

Table 7
Explanation of symbols, functions and several fixed parameters used in the Appendix
Symbols
qm
BWx
Ehrz
hrz
Evrt
vrt
Estn
Echg
chg
tmtfst
tmilk
EVm
DGx(T )
km(qm)
kf(qm)
kc(qm)
kl(qm)
Fx(T )
ACx(T )
MEmx(T )
EVgx(T )
REx(T )
cRE(T )
Lpreg(T )
Epreg(T )
Emilk(T )

Units
kg
J/kg m
m/d
J/kg m
m/d
kJ/kg d
kJ/kg n
n
d
d
MJ/kg
kg/d

MJ/d
MJ/d
MJ/d
MJ/kg
MJ/d
MJ/d
d
MJ/d
MJ/d

Explanations
Metabolisability (ME/GE) of diet
Birth weight (=Wx(0))
Additional energy cost for horizontal movement
Horizontal movement
Additional energy cost for vertical movement
Vertical movement
Additional energy cost for standing
Additional energy cost for one position change
Times of position change
First mating age
Length of lactating period
Energy value of milk
Daily gain
Efficiency of utilization of MEm
Efficiency of utilization of RE
Efficiency of utilization of Epreg
Efficiency of utilization of Emilk
Fasting metabolism
Metabolism for activities
ME for maintenance
Energy value for daily gain
Retained energy requirement for growing
Corrected RE for lactating period
Pregnant length from conception
Additional energy requirement for pregnancy
Additional energy requirement for lactation

Initial values
0.58
3.5
200
28
0
10
0.26
20
215
300
2.78

K. Oishi et al. / Livestock Science 114 (2008) 220232

2. Body weight change

Wx T ax 1  ekx T tsx
BWx Wx 0; BWmean BWm BWf =2
DGx T dWx T =dT ax kx ekx T tsx
3. Daily milk yield

Corrected RE requirement for doe's growth

cRET RE f T =0:95  kl ; in the lactation period
RE f T =kf ;
without the lactation period
ME requirement of an individual goat
ME m T MEmm T RE m T
ME f T MEmf T cRET EpregT =kc
EmilkT =k l

Yprlmilk AexpfB1 lmilk V=2lmilk V  Clmilk V2

1:01=lmilk glmilk Lmilk T T
cl  PaT  1 trpfst
lmilk V Lmilk VT Lmilk T  150=100
Y Vpa A VpaB VeC Vpa
Y pa; lmilk Y Vpa=100  Yprlmilk
Y PaT ; Lmilk T Y T
4. ME requirement
Efficiency of utilization
km qm 0:35qm 0:503
kf qm 0:78qm 0:006
kc qm 0:133
kl qm 0:35qm 0:420
ME for maintenance
Fx T 0:315  Wx T 0:75
ACx T Ehrz  hrz=106 Evrt  vrt=106
Estn=103 Echg  chg=103
Wx T
MEmx T Fx T ACx T =km
RE for growth
EVg x T 4:972 0:327  Wx T
RE x T DGx T  EVg x T
ME for pregnancy
LpregT T  cl  PaT tmtfst
EpregT 0:133  BW mean  LsPaT
 100:5977:819exp0:0175LpregT
ME for lactation
EmilkT EVm  Y T

231

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