Week 4: Chapter 3

Probability

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Terminology
Probability

The systematic study of uncertainty

A numerical measure between 0 and 1 that describes the

likelihood that an event will occur.

3
2

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Terminology
Experiment:

The process of obtaining an observation or taking a

measurement

3
3

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Terminology
Sample Point:

The basic possible outcomes of an experiment

3
4

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Terminology
Sample Space (S):

The set of all distinct outcomes of an experiment

Examples:

S = {H,T}

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

3
5

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Sample points and sample spaces

Often represented with Venn diagrams.

Observe the up face on a coin.

S
Observe the up face on a die.

S
6

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Formulas
Probability Rules for Sample Points

All probabilities must be between 0 and 1.

0 1
0 indicates an impossible outcome and 1 a certain outcome.

The probabilities of all the sample points must sum to 1.

Something has to happen.

= 1
=1
7

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Terminology
Event or Outcome:
A subset of the sample space.
Denoted by capital letters A, B, C, etc.

Example:
Roll a die and observe the up face, an event, could be obtaining
an even number.

A = {even number}
A = {2, 4, 6}

2
4
5

A
S
8

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

The probability of an event

The sum of the probabilities of the sample points

in the sample space for the event.
The probability of an event A is denoted by P(A), and is
calculated by

=

Example:
Throw a die and let A be the event of
observing an even number.

What is the probability of A and P(A)?

9

Week 4: Chapter 3.2-3.3

Unions, Intersections, & Complimentary Events

union

intersections
10

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Unions and Intersections

Compound Events

Made of two or more other

events

Union

Either A or B,
or both, occur

Intersection

Both A and B occur

11

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Unions and Intersections

Example: Rolling a die,
S={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Define

A
.6

2
4

B
.3

A = {2, 4, 6}
1

Entire shaded area is

.

B = {1, 2, 3, 4}
= { 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 }
= 5/6
= { 2, 4 }
= 2/6 = 1/3

12

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Complementary Events

The complement of any event A is the

event that A does not occur, AC. For
example,
= { 2, 4, 6 }
=
() =
=

A
.6

=
( ) =

2
4

B
.3

A =
A ] =

13

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Complementary Events

The complement of any event A is the

event that A does not occur, AC. For
example,
= { 2, 4, 6 }
= { 1, 3, 5 }
() = 3/6 = 1/2
=

A
.6

= {5, 6}
( ) = 2/6 = 1/3

2
4

B
.3

A = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 6}
A ={ 5 }
= 1/6
14

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Formulas
Complementary Relationship
+ = 1
= 1
= 1

3
15

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Example

The sample space for an

experiment contains
five sample points with
probabilities as shown
in the table.

Sample
points

Probabilities

.05

.20

.30

.30

.15

Find the probability of each of the following

events:
A : {Either 1, 2, or 3 occurs}
B : { Either 1, 3, or 5 occurs}
C: { 4 does not occur}
16

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Examples

The sample space for an

experiment contains
five sample points with
probabilities as shown
in the table.

Sample
points

Probabilities

.05

.20

.30

.30

.15

Find the probability of each of the following

events:
A : {Either 1, 2, or 3 occurs} , P(A) = .55
B : { Either 1, 3, or 5 occurs}, P(B) = .5
C: { 4 does not occur}, P(C) = .70
17

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Example: Radio Requests

a) What is the probability that the request is for one of the
three Bs?
b) What is the probability that the request is not for one of
the two Ss?
c) Neither Bach nor Wagner wrote any symphonies. What is
the probability that the request is for a composer who
wrote at least one symphony?
Bach

5%

Mozart

21%

Beethoven

26%

Schubert

12%

Brahms

9%

Schumann

7%

Dvorak

2%

Tchaikovsky

14%

Mendelssohn

3%

Wagner

1%
18

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Example: Radio Requests

a) What is the probability that the request is for one of the
three Bs?
.05 +.26 +.09 =.40
b) What is the probability that the request is not for one of
the two Ss?
1-P(S composer) = 1-(.12 + .07)
= 1- .19 = .81
c) Neither Bach nor Wagner wrote any symphonies. What is
the probability that the request is for a composer who
wrote at least one symphony?
P (request for composer who wrote at least one
symphony)
= 1 P (composer did not write a symphony)
= 1 (.05 + .01) = .94

19

Week 4: Chapter 3.4-3.6

Additive & Multiplicative Rules

union

intersections
20

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

The Additive Rule and

Mutually Exclusive Events (3.4)

The probability of the union of events A and B is

the sum of the probabilities of A and B minus the
probability of the intersection of A and B:
= + ( )

Example
Probability of surgery (Event A) is .12
Probability of obstetric treatment
(Event B) is .16

3
21

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

The Additive Rule and

Mutually Exclusive Events

= + ( )

=
= +
= .12 + .16 .02 = .26

3
22

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

The Additive Rule and

Mutually Exclusive Events

Events A and B are mutually exclusive if

contains no sample points.

If A and B are mutually exclusive,

= + ()

3
23

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

The Additive Rule and

Mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are mutually exclusive,

= + ()

Example
Suppose a class has 30 juniors and 25 seniors, and a
student is selected at random. What is the probability
that the randomly selected students is either a junior or
a senior?
A= {Junior}
B= {Senior}
= P(A)+P(B)

= 30/55 + 25/55
=1
24

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

Conditional Probability (3.5)

Conditional Probability
probability of A given B
written as P(A|B)
( ) ( ) ( )
=
=
=
()
()
()

3
25

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

The Multiplicative Rule and

Independent Events (3.6)

Formulas
P( A B)
P( A B)
P( B)

or

P( A B) P( B) P( A B)

P( A B)
P ( B A)
P ( A)

or

P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B A)

3
26

C
h
a
p
t
e
r

The Multiplicative Rule and

Independent Events

Independent Rule
Two events A and B are independent if the
occurrence of B does not alter the probability
that A has occurred
P(A|B) = P(A)
AND

P(B|A) = P(B)
If A and B are independent, then

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B).

27