Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Forecasting
Presenter: Ralf Schulze-Riegert , Schlumberger
References:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Notes:
Questions:
1. How important it is to mimic physics of physical distribution?
2. How you define uncertainty ranges? (P90-P10, P99-P1,P100-P0)
# Two people voice out that we should push the ranges to the limit (What
is the lowest you can get, and what is the maximum you can get)
3. When is highly complex model necessary? Do they add value to your
decision making?
4. Do your company do lookbacks? How do they use that?
# Refer to SPE papers to get the answer
Process
Decision
Reservoir
Modelling
Production
forecast
-Static,
dynamic and
HM
-Reserve,
facilities, well
planning
Tools allow us to maintain uncertainty that are not felt during production
history
Tools that are reflect what model is learning and present information to
engineer
Challenges (feedbacks from participants):
We rarely capture the uncertainty of the tools (software)
Other disciplines did not share their knowledge regarding
uncertainty to Reservoir Engineer
What is the good history match? Are there any guidelines for us
to follow? What we need?
Why probabilistic?
Because subsurface uncertainties are unavoidable
Deterministic modelling producing P10, P50, P90 not capturing
wider range of subsurface uncertainties
Static uncertainties affect hydrocarbon:
Fluid contact
Porosity
NTG
Sand distribution
Boi, Bgi
History
Matching
Range
Adjustment
Simulation
Prediction
Deterministic
Forecast-P10, P50,
P90
Typical workflow:
Perform sensitivity -MEPO by SCHLUMBERGER
Identify heavy hitters
Perform HM -Objective function
Run prediction
Build proxy
Perform Monte Carlo on Proxy modelling
Build P10, P50, P90
Use P10, P50, P90 to assess alternatives
Economic analysis
Introduction to Hybrid Technique: Mix of deterministic &probabilistic
approach, with some customization
Greenfield: Use 3 or more simulation model represent major
uncertainty combination with different volume and connectivity
Brownfield: Single Most likely model is comparable to material
balance to estimate connected volume
Recovery affected by dynamic connected volume
Focus at PETRONAS: High Risk, High value, High Capital intensive
project
Challenge:
Can probability modelling required for all or it can be selected?
Proxy value valid on per data set used -If add GOC/OWC, forecast
will change
Use sector model to identify key uncertainties
Identify HM runs that give enough spread for forecast
Questions
Can probabilities workflow to be optimized for FDP timely?
Is Hybrid approach acceptable?
How to effectively evaluate project robustness?
Is probabilistic modelling applicable to all or only selected areas?
Question:
1. Can modern software do a better job in supporting uncertainties and
assisted HM workflow?
2. Can we introduce any quality data check?
3. Can we propose several standard workflow variations that could cover at
least 80% of the case?
Suggestion:
After a series of HM runs, highlight data contribute to match and suggest
for RE to have a look
Slot 5: Computer Optimization of Development Plans in Presence of
Uncertainty
Presenter: Prof John Carter, EON
Neural network/
A large mature field with long history, with prediction for production can
be relied on Decline Curve Analysis (DCA)
What is Machine Learning -It gives computer ability to learn and adapt
from large amount of data and make prediction (without simulation)
Scenario
generatio
n
Technical
feasibility
(Decision
making)
Portfolio
Stochastic
model
Optimization
Facilities
Platform 1
Platform 2
Production
Mono phase
Bi phase
Multipha
Slot: Risk Analysis in EOR feasibility study
(LHS)
-Good representation of response (NPRS)
-Good quality of runs (Confirmation runs)
EOR
Challenge: What is the best design for EOR that will improve recovery
compared to water injection.
Conclusion: Water flooding has higher recovery compared to EOR, so we
neglected EOR approach for the field.
Tempest 7.1
Proxy model
Model (up to unlimited real.)
Realization 1: Modifier 1 ,2,3
Tempest 7.2
Stochastic Proxy
Realization 1: Modifier
1,2,3,4,5
Realization 2 :
Modifier 1,2,3
Steps:
Simulate full range of uncertainties
Establish probability curve
Select low, medium and high case
Slot: Consistently integrate static and dynamic data into reservoir
models, while accounting for uncertainty using an ensemble approach
(Ensemble Kalman Filter)
Appraisal stage:
i.
Sensitivity analysis
ii.
Find cluster model with common behaviour
iii.
Find representative for cluster