MPPA Financial Data

ITEMS
Revenue
COGS (Cost of goods sold)
Operating income
Net Income
EPS (Earnings per share)
DPS (Dividend per share)
Depreciation, supplemental
Cash And Short Term Investments
Receivables
Inventory
Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Assets
Accounts Payable
Current Liabilities
Long-term Debt
Total Debt
Liabilities
Equity
Retained earnings
Outstanding shares
Interest expense
Cash Flow from Operations
Capital Expenditures
Iss (Retirmnt) of Debt
Price

2009

2010

10,280,457
-9,776,184
504,273
300,035
66
0
1,821,740
-94.8%
3,416,541
167,928
1,171,805
5,066,239
5,493,905
10,560,144
1,481,799
3,144,994
3,854,123
0
6,999,117
3,467,098
123,236
4,721
21,476

8,544,778
-2,969,521
5,575,257
5,800,640
1,122
0
1,429,774
5422.5%
3,974,780
199,285
969,713
5,407,395
6,013,205
11,420,600
1,098,251
3,063,982
1,162,586
0
4,226,568
7,194,032
4,005,505
5,378
16,026

1,229,946
1,840,203
197,545
880

585,478
-98,908
106,752
1,490

RATIOS
PROFITABILITY RATIOS
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net profit margin
ROE (Return on Equity)
ROA (Return on Assets)
CROIC
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Current ratio
Cash ratio

195.09%
4.91%
2.92%
5.63%
2.87%
78.63%

134.75%
65.25%
67.89%
90.44%
53.49%
11.10%

1.6
1.1

1.8
1.3

Acid-test ratio(Quick ratio)

DEBT RATIOS
DER (Debt to equity ratio)
LT DER (Long-term Debt to Equity ratio)
Interest coverage ratio
Degree of Leverage
OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS
Days Sales of Inventory
Days Sales Outstanding
Days Payable Outstanding
Cash Conversion Cycle
MARKET RATIOS
PSR (Price to sales ratio)
PER (Price to earnings ratio)
Payout ratio
Dividend yield
PBV (Price to book value ratio)
PEG ratio (Price to growth ratio)
SPECIAL RATIOS & NUMBERS
FCF (Free Cash-flow)
Net Working Capital
Earnings Yield (Greenblatt's)
ROC (Greenblatt's)
P/FCF (Price to Free Cash Flow ratio)
Altman Z-Score
Growth & Consistency
Revenue growth
Revenue growth consistency
Earning growth
Earning growth consistency

Keterangan:
Isi cell dengan warna ini
Jangan isi cell dengan warna ini

1.2

1.4

0.0
1.1
23.5
4.5

0.0
0.2
347.9
806.0

-43.8
6.0
-55.3
17.5

-119.2
8.5
-135.0
24.3

0.4
13.3
0.00%
0.00%
1.2
0.0

0.9
1.3
0.00%
0.00%
1.1
0.0

3,070,149
1,921,245
4.5%
6.8%
1.4
1.72

486,570
2,343,413
45.6%
66.7%
16.5
4.23

-3.62%
40.31%
-9.38%
11.40%

ncial Data
2011

2012

2013

8,908,611
-8,744,239
164,372
105,037
20
300
1,616,744
-52.4%
1,794,517
222,885
1,266,120
3,618,583
6,689,606
10,308,189
1,540,087
2,960,433
1,664,288
0
4,624,721
5,633,108
2,642,389
5,378
60,144

10,868,164
10,525,657
342,507
220,547
41
186
275,001
-50.4%
2,915,716
323,597
1,670,574
5,084,740
775,125
8,225,206
1,422,313
2,715,926
1,467,340
0
4,379,482
3,845,724
2,831,270
5,378
0

11,912,763
11,324,288
588,475
444,905
83
186
201,024

197,687
-340,856
1,102,132
920

-80,413
-381,527
-290,000
1,150

1,099,595
-303,646
-1,816,570
1,940

198.15%
1.85%
1.18%
2.22%
1.59%
-2.60%

3.15%
3.15%
2.03%
6.18%
2.98%
-17.81%

4.94%
4.94%
3.73%

1.2
0.6

1.9
1.1

1.4
0.4

1306.2%
1,365,590
414,042
2,273,548
4,167,989
1,086,757
6,579,518
1,989,126
3,037,430
0
0
3,284,578
3,294,940
2,251,464
5,378
0

0.8

1.3

0.6

0.0
0.3
2.7
2.9

0.0
0.4
#DIV/0!
4.8

0.0
0.0
#DIV/0!

-52.9
9.1
-64.3
20.6

57.9
10.9
49.3
19.5

73.3
12.7
64.1
21.9

0.6
46.0
1500.00%
32.61%
0.9
0.0

0.6
28.0
453.66%
16.17%
1.6
0.0

0.9
23.4
224.10%
9.59%
3.2
#DIV/0!

-143,169
658,150
1.7%
2.2%
-34.6
1.99

-461,940
2,368,814
3.2%
10.9%
-13.4
3.13

795,949
1,130,559
4.3%
26.5%
13.1
4.70

22.4
435.55%

CHART REPRESENTATIONS OF FIN

14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0

2013

2012

2011

250.00%
200.00%
150.00%
100.00%
50.00%
0.00%
2013

2012

2011

120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
2012
-20.00%
-40.00%
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000

2011

2010

6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0

2013

-1,000,000

2012

2011

2010

8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0

2013

2012

2011

201

2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0

2013
-500,000

2012

2011

-1,000,000
-1,500,000
-2,000,000
-2,500,000
100.0
50.0
0.0

2013
-50.0
-100.0
-150.0

2012

2011

2010

-100.0
-150.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0

2013
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0

2012

2011

TATIONS OF FINANCIAL DATA

Revenue
Operating
income
Net Income

011

2010

2009

Gross margin
Operating
margin

011

2010

2009

ROE (Return on
Equity)
ROC (Greenblatt's)
CROIC

2010

2009

Cash Flow from

Operations

Cash Flow from

Operations

2010

2009
D/E RATIO

12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000

Equity
Total
Debt
D/E
Ratio

6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0

2010

2009

Capex

2011

2010

2010

2009

2009

Days Sales
Outstanding
Days Payable
Outstanding

2011

P/E
Ratio

2010

2009

OME VS FCF

ROE & ROA

MARGINS

PROFITS

o
D/E RATIO

OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS
ASSET MANAGEMENT CAPITAL STRUCTURE

ty

NET INCOME VS FC

MARKET VALUES
OPERATION

io

MPPA Valuation
Harga saat ini
Est EPS (EOY) (Year n)
Average P/E
Dividend
Long-term EPS Growth
Deposito
Risk Premium
Required Return
EOY P/E (est.)
Dividend Payout ratio
Long-term EPS Growth (proj.)
Long-term P/E (proj.)

3,245
76
22.42
331
1306.21%
10.75%
7.50%
18.25%
29.40
435.55%
15%
17.00

STEP 1
Proyeksi EPS
Akhir
Akhir
Akhir
Akhir
Akhir

tahun
tahun
tahun
tahun
tahun

n
n
n
n
n

+
+
+
+
+

1
2
3
4
5

Proyeksi EPS pada akhir tahun

87
100
115
133
153

STEP 2
Projected Stock price
Total EPS (5 Years)

2,595
589

STEP 3
Total Dividends (5 Years)

2,563

STEP 4
Total Stock Price

5,159

STEP 5
Price Calculation
Perhitungan Harga Wajar Saham
Harga Wajar Saham
Tahun n + 4
4,362
Tahun n + 3
3,689
Tahun n + 2
3,120
Tahun n + 1
2,638

Tahun n

Fair Value
Margin of Safety

Keterangan
Isi cell yang berwarna hijau

2,231
2,231
-45.44%

VALUATION INPUT TUNING

Harga
EPS (est)

3,245
76

Dividend Payout Ratio

BI Rate
Risk Premium
EPS Growth
Projected PER
Required Return

13.63%

FAIR VALUE
MARGIN OF SAFETY

1,162
-64.19%

NG

62.75 %
5.75 %
7.88 %
15.00 %
12.00

Ben Graham's Stock Screening

Filter
Revenue (in mio IDR)
Current Ratio
Net Current Assets - LT Debt
EPS Growth
P/E Ratio
P/E Ratio x P/BV Ratio
Long-term Debt to Equity Ratio
Number of years of missing dividend payment

Value
10,280,457
1.61
1,212,116
705.43%
13.3
16.0
111.16%
0

ock Screening
Result

Criterion

Pass
Fail
Pass
Pass
Pass
Pass
Fail
Pass

>= 175 bio IDR

>= 2
>= 0
>= 14%
<= 15
<= 22
<= 100%
=0

Perhitungan Piotroski's F-Sco

No

Kriteria

1
2
3

Net Income
Operating Cash Flow
Return on Assets

Quality of Earnings

Long-term Debt vs Assets

Current Ratio

Shares Outstanding

Gross Margin

Assets Turnover

F-SCORE

Perhitungan Piotroski's F-Score

Test
Apakah net income positif?
Apakah operating cash flow positif?
Apakah ROA lebih tingi dari tahun sebelumnya?
Apakah operating cash flow lebih tinggi daripada net
income?
Apakah long-term debt to assets lebih rendah dari
tahun sebelumnya?
Apakah current ratio lebih tinggi dari tahun
sebelumnya?
Apakah tidak ada pertambahan jumlah saham
beredar?
Apakah gross margin lebih tinggi dari tahun
sebelumnya?
Apakah assets turnover lebih tinggi dari tahun
sebelumnya?

F-SCORE

Jawaban (Y/T)
Y
Y
N
Y
T
T
Y
Y
Y

Skor
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
6

Ratios
PROFITABILITY RATIOS
Gross margin

Operating margin

Net profit margin

ROE (Return on Equity)
ROA (Return on Assets)
CROIC (Cash Return on Invested Capital)

LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Current ratio
Cash ratio
Acid-test ratio(Quick ratio)

DEBT RATIOS
DER (Debt to equity ratio)

LT DER (Long-term Debt to Equity ratio)

Interest coverage ratio
Degree of Leverage (DOL)
MARKET RATIOS
PSR (Price to sales ratio)
PER (Price to earnings ratio)
Payout ratio
Dividend yield
PBV (Price to book value ratio)
PEG ratio (Price to growth ratio)

SPECIAL RATIOS & NUMBERS

FCF (Free Cash Flow)
Net Working Capital

Earnings Yield (Greenblatt's)

ROC (Return on capital) (Greenblatt's)
P/FCF (Price to Free Cash Flow ratio)

Altman Z-Score

Description
(Revenue - COGS) / Revenue

Operating income / Revenue

Net income / Revenue

Net income / ((This year Equity + Last year equity)/2)
EBIT / ((This year Assets + Last year assets)/2)
Free Cash Flow / Invested Capital

Current assets / current liabilities

(Cash and marketable securities) / Current liabilities
(Current assets - Inventory) / Current liabilities

Liabilities / Shareholder equity

Long-term debt / Shareholder equity

Operating income / Interest expense
%EBIT/%Sales

Stock price / (Revenue / Outstanding shares)

Stock price / Net earnings
Dividend per share / Earning per share
Dividend per share / Stock price
Stock price / Book value per share
PER / Long-term growth

Operating cash flow - Capital expenditure

Current assets - current liabilities

Operating income per share / Enterprise value per share

Operating income per share / (Working capital per share + Fixed
assets per share)
Stock price / Free cash flow to te firm per share
Altman Z-Score = 1.2x(working capital/total assets) + 1.4
x(retained earning/total assets) + 3.3x(EBIT/total assets) +
0.6x(market value of equity/liabilities) + 0.999x(sales/total
assets)

Remarks
Dapat digunakan untuk menganalisa
kemampuan perusahaan bersaing dalam
industrinya
Bisa dianggap sebagai berapa besar margin
yang diperoleh dari aktivitas
operasionalnya
Cari perusahaan dengan ROE > 20%
EBIT = Net earnings + Interest expense (1 Tax rate)
Invested Capital = Equity + Liabilities Current Liabilities - Excess Cash
Excess Cash = Cash - MAX(0, Current
Liabilities - Current Assets)

Current ratio sebaiknya > 1 kecuali untuk

perusahaan utilitas
Tes yang lebih berat untuk menganalisa
kondisi likuiditas perusahaan

Sebagai alternatif gunakan liabilities yang

mengandung interest untuk keperluan
analisa
Sebaiknya > 5x

Dipopulerkan oleh Kenneth L.Fisher

Metode valuasi paling sederhana dan
banyak digunakan

Salah satu metode valuasi paling

sederhana dan merupakan perbaikan dari
PER. Set PEG ratio maksimum = 1 untuk
mendapatkan harga wajar

Versi Joel Greenblatt dan mungkin berbeda

dari definisi umum
Versi Joel Greenblatt dan mungkin berbeda
dari definisi umum
Z > 2.99 -Safe Zones
1.8 < Z < 2.99 -Grey Zones
Z < 1.80 -Distress Zones

459,694
5,383
24,775
489,852

162,360

166,138
0

169,916
2,280
7,556
3778

172,196
5,276

177,472