Professional Documents
Culture Documents
GUIDED BY:
PROF. ISHA DAVE
PREPARED BY:
ISHAN MODI (1530)
201500615010028
GLS INSTITUTE OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
Declaration
I, Ishan Modi, Enrolment No. 201500615010028 student of GLS Institute of Computer
Technology (GLSICT - MBA) hereby declare that I have successfully completed this project on
Fundamental and Technical analysis of Banking & FMGC Sector in the academic year 201516.
I declare that this submitted work is done by me and to the best of my knowledge; no such
work has been submitted by any other person for the award of degree or diploma.
I also declare that all the information collected from various secondary and primary sources has
been duly acknowledged in this project report.
_______________
Ishan Modi
(2015006615010028)
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PREFACE
Management today is must for day-to-day life. Management is the integral part of the business.
In this world, all things need proper management for its success. Business without proper
management is like a castle of sand built on seashore. Even individuals need proper management
for running their life smoothly. Only theoretical knowledge is not enough in MBA along with
one needs some practical exposure in the corporate world also. MBA provides this opportunity
through the medium of summer training. This training has made one thing clear that there are
two pillars for getting success in business i.e. efficiency and effectiveness; it means not only
doing right things but also doing things rightly.
In MBA Theory of any subject is important but without its practical knowledge it becomes
unless particularly for the Management Students. As a student of the Master of Business
Administration, we have studied many theories and concepts in the classroom, but only after
taking up this project work we have experienced & understood these Management theories &
practices in its fullest sense, which plays a very vital role in business field today. The knowledge
of management is incomplete without knowing the practical application of the theories studied.
V|Page
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I am glad to express my profound sentiments of gratitude to all who rendered their valuable help
for the successful completion of this project report titled FUNDAMENTAL AND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF BANKING & FMCG SECTOR at TRADEBULLS
SECURITIES PVT. LTD.
I would also like to thank our DIRECTOR SIR, R.P.SONI for giving us a Peaceful and calm
atmosphere to help in our Study, and make this report.
My genuine sense of gratitude goes to GLS UNIVERSITY that gave me a chance to brighten
my academic qualification that provided me this opportunity to have a practical knowledge of
relevant fields.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
I have undertaken my internship in financial sector at Trade bulls Securities (p) ltd. Trade bulls
securities is a stock broking firm providing a wide range of financial services & various
investment products.
The project includes in detail theory of fundamental analysis. All the ratios used in the
fundamental analysis are explained in report further. There are also some pros and cons of the
fundamental analysis which are explained in detail in the further part of the report.
The project also explains about the history of the Indian stock market, banking sector as well.
Further in the report it will help to enhance the knowledge regarding the select the good bank to
purpose of investment for the different type of investors.
The project also explained various aspects of technical analysis i.e. moving averages, relative
strength index and rate of change, which are the basic statistical tools for technical research.
Apart from that I have interpreted the technical data using charting tool with the help of the chart
patterns are created over a period of time.
I have taken the historical data of some well-known banks and FMCG companies in Indian stock
market.
All the banks financial position and its future growth prospectus is being explained in the project
report which will help to select the best banks for investing.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
SR. NO.
PARTICULARS
PG. NO.
CERTIFICATES
II & II
DECLARATION
IV
PREFACE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
VI
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
VII
CH:1
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
1-6
1.1
LITRETURE REVIEW
1.2
PROBLEM STATEMENT
1.3
OBJECTIVES
1.4
SCOPE
1.5
RESEARCH DESIGN
1.6
SAMPLING
1.7
1.8
BENEFICIARY OF STUDY
1.9
LIMITATION OF STUDY
1.10
MERITS OF STUDY
CH:2
INDUSTRIAL PROFILE
6-12
2.1
INTRODUCTION
2.2
HISTORY
2.3
BANKING SECTOR
2.4
SBI
ICICI
AXIS
FMCG SECTOR
VIII | P a g e
10
ITC
HUL
P&G
CH:3
COMPANY PROFILE
13-15
3.1
INTRODUCTION
14
3.2
AIM
14
3.3
PHILOSOPHY
14
3.4
TEAM
15
3.5
INTEGRITY
15
3.6
INNOVATION
15
3.7
15
CH:4
INTRODUCTION TO TOPIC
4.1
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
4.2
COMPANY ANALYSIS
4.3
16-25
17
18-20
18
18
RETURN ON ASSETS
19
19
19
19
19
EPS
BALANCE-SHEET
FINANCIAL GRAPHS
19
20
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
CHARTS TYPE:
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20
20
20
20-25
LINE CHART
22
CANDLESTICK CHART
23
CH:5
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
5.1
26-57
ICICI BANK
27-33
27
28
RETURN ON ASSETS
28
29
30
NON-INTEREST
TOTAL
31
31
EPS
INCOME
ASSETS (%):
5.2
32
33
AXIS BANK
34-41
34
35
35
36
37
38
ASSETS (%)
5.3
EPS
39
40
40
SBI
41-48
41
42
42
43
X|Page
44
NON
TOTAL
45
45
46
EPS
47
-INTEREST
INCOME
ASSETS (%)
5.4
5.5
5.6
HUL
48-51
CURRENT RATIO
49
RETURN ON EQUITY
49
50
51
51
ITC
52-54
CURRENT RATIO
52
RETURN ON EQUITY
53
53
EPS
54
P&G
54-57
CURRENT RATIO
55
QUICK RATIO
55
56
56
EPS
57
CH:6
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
58-67
6.1
ICICI BANK
59-60
6.2
AXIS BANK
60-61
6.3
SBI
62-63
6.4
HUL
63-64
6.5
ITC
65-66
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6.6
P&G
66-67
CH:7
KEY FINDINGS
68-70
CH:8
RECOMMENDATIONS
71-72
CH:9
CONCLUSION
73-74
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LIST OF TABLES
SR. NO.
PARTICULARS
PG. NO.
CH:1
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
1-20
1.1
SECTORS
CH:5
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
5.1
26-57
ICICI BANK
27-33
27
28
RETURN ON ASSETS
28
29
30
NON-INTEREST
TOTAL
31
31
EPS
INCOME
ASSETS (%):
5.2
32
33
AXIS BANK
34-41
34
35
35
36
37
37
ASSETS (%)
5.3
EPS
38
39
40
SBI
41-48
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41
42
42
43
44
NON
TOTAL
45
45
EPS
-INTEREST
INCOME
ASSETS (%)
5.4
5.5
48-51
Ratio
48
ITC
5.6
47
HUL
52-54
52
Ratio
54-57
P&G
46
54
Ratio
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LIST OF CHARTS
SR. NO.
PARTICULARS
PG. NO.
CH:1
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
1-20
CH:4
INTRODUCTION TO TOPIC
16-25
4.1
LINE CHART
23
4.2
CANDLESTICK CHART
24
CH:5
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
5.1
26-57
ICICI BANK
27-33
27
28
RETURN ON ASSETS
29
29
30
NON-INTEREST
32
INCOME
TOTAL
ASSETS (%):
5.2
EPS
32
32
33
34-41
AXIS BANK
34
35
36
36
37
38
ASSETS (%)
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39
40
5.3
EPS
40
41-48
SBI
41
42
43
44
44
NON
45
-INTEREST
INCOME
TOTAL
ASSETS (%)
5.4
5.5
5.6
CH:6
EPS
45
46
47
48-51
HUL
CURRENT RATIO
49
RETURN ON EQUITY
49
50
51
51
52-54
ITC
CURRENT RATIO
52
RETURN ON EQUITY
53
53
EPS
54
54-57
P&G
CURRENT RATIO
55
QUICK RATIO
55
56
56
EPS
57
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XVI | P a g e
58-67
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
59-60
ICICI BANK
CANDLESTICK CHART
59
RSI CHART
59
ADX CHART
60
60-61
AXIS BANK
CANDLESTICK CHART
60
RSI CHART
61
ADX CHART
61
SBI
62-63
CANDLESTICK CHART
62
RSI CHART
62
ADX CHART
63
HUL
63-64
CANDLESTICK CHART
63
RSI CHART
64
ADX CHART
64
ITC
65-66
CANDLESTICK CHART
65
RSI CHART
65
ADX CHART
66
P&G
66-67
CANDLESTICK CHART
66
RSI CHART
67
ADX CHART
67
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1. Research Methodology
Literature review
Problem statement
Objectives
Scope
Research Design
Sampling
Data Collection Sources
Beneficiary of Study
Limitations of study
Merits of Study
Chatterjee (2011)
Indian banking suffered some setbacks during early months of 2011 because of the prevailing
unfavourable environment across the globe. Population served per office declined to 13,100
during the period. The asset size of scheduled banks was estimated at INR 71.8 trillion by March
2011.The persistent high interest rate slowed down the credit demand and decorated the asset
quality of the banks, especially in the public sector.
Shah ( 2012)
The Indian banking sector has seen unprecedented growth along with remarkable improvement
in its quality of assets and efficiency since economic liberalisation began in the early 1990s.From
providing plain vanilla banking services, banks have gradually transformed into universal banks.
ATMs, internet banking, mobile banking and social banking have made anytime anywhere
banking the norm now.
Das(2014)
In terms of sectors, Rajan said there was no way but to fund infrastructure projects in a big way
as there was no alternative funding route for the big projects. However, he said banks would
2|Page
have to practice more informed and engaged banking. He complained that banks cannot
outsource project evaluation and in house skills have to be used. To avoid scandals, Rajan said
banks must see that promoters bring better equity and not leverage equity for a new project
Jain (2015)
RBI Governor was confident that the Indian banking system will tide over the NPAs problem by
bringing more effectiveness in the Joint Lenders Forum mechanism, Strategic Debt Restructuring
and 5/25 scheme as well as enactment of the Bankruptcy Law and sufficient capital infusion in
PSBs by the Govt.
Bansal (2016)
One of the reasons for banking sectors NPA woes is the absence of strong bankruptcy laws in
India. There is no single law dealing with either insolvency or bankruptcy in India. Some cases
of liquidation are handled by state high courts while others are dealt under the old Provincial
Insolvency Act. Once the bankruptcy code is passed, it will become easier for sick companies to
wind up their businesses, facilitate turnarounds and allow investors to exit their investments.
Das (2016)
With the bankruptcy Act in place, banks can breathe easy, at least in the medium term, as
corporate borrowers now intensify their efforts to avoid loan defaults and the likely loss of
management control of business. This empowered lenders to bargain strongly in matters of asset
recovery, while borrowers gained with lower borrowing costs after three-four quarters. So banks
are empowered with more rights to take legal action against the defaulters to curb the NPA
problem which keeps government and bankers on their toes.
3|Page
in their study attempted to explore the effects of components of working capital management of
selected FMCG firms on their profitability. Using secondary data from Prowess database of
CMIE for a period of 10 years from 2000-01 to 2009-10, the study concludes that there is
negative association between working capital management variables and firm's profitability
during the study period.
FMCG scenario
(Source:http://www.esciencecentral.org/journals/a-study-on-consumer-behavior-towards-fmcg-products-among-therural-suburban-hhs-of-ernakulam-2375-4389.1000127.pdf)
The term FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), although popular and frequently used does not
have a standard definition and is generally used in India to refer to products of everyday use.
Conceptually, however, the term refers to relatively fast moving items that are used directly by
the consumer. The Indian FMCG sector has a market size of US$ 13.1 billion and is the fourth
largest sector in the Indian economy. A well-established distribution network, mature logistics,
intense competition between the organized and unorganized segments, National brands and
private labels/local brands characterize the sector. It has been estimated that FMCG sector sales
in India is likely to increase from Rs. 92,100 cores in 2011-12, to over Rs.1,30,000 cores in
2015. With the presence of 12.2% of the world population in the villages of India, the Indian
rural FMCG market is formidable indeed. The Indian rural market has more than 700 Million
Consumers (70% of the Indian population) and accounts for 50% of the total FMCG market. The
Personal care category in India was valued at Rs. 54.6 billion. An average Indian spends 8% of
his income on personal care products. Personal care mainly consists of Hair Care Skin Care, Oral
Care, Personal Wash (Soaps), Cosmetic and Toiletries, Feminine Hygiene. The sales of FMCG
Personal care segment is growing by leaps and bounds in Kerala, with the most literate and transculture embracing consumers in India. Kerala has been witnessing a social transformation over
the past decade to form a modern consumerist state with little focus on farming sector, increased
interest in I.T related parks, educational services, medical facilities and tourism, higher income
with huge remittances from the NRIs and increased living standards even in the rural areas
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providing better growth prospects and demand for the FMCG sector. The per capita consumption
of FMCG products is on the rise, thanks to the consumer acculturation.
To study and analysis internal system of the FMCG and derive a forecast and profit from
future price movements.
1.4 Scope
In this study, 3 banks of Indian banking sector and 3 FMCG companies will be selected for
fundamental and technical analysis
Sampling Units :
Banking Sector
FMCG Sector
ICICI Bank
Axis Bank
Newspapers / Articles
Internet Bank and FMCG website
1.8Beneficiaries of study
Investors: This study will be helpful to the investors decision for Reasons to buy and
Reasons to not buy of Banking sectors and FMCG stocks.
Study analyse the performance of the three banks for the last five years and comparison is
made for their performance in the different years.
The other major constraint was the time period. I am having only 6 weeks to complete the
whole research, so I had taken only 3 FMCG and also gone through some of the ratios of
fundamental analysis. As the topic is too wide I can only have conceptual clarity because of
time constraint.
Fundamental Analysis
Identifying the intrinsic value of a security.
Identifying long-term investment opportunities, since it involves real-time data.
Technical analysis :
Helps to identify a trend, allowing investors to make predication on future trends.
Allows investors to judge the direction of the current trend and enable them to gauge the
best time position in the market.
When it is used in conjunction with fundamental analysis and company ad industry related
news, it minimizes the chances of investors incurring losses.
6|Page
Introduction
History
Banking Sector in India
SBI
ICICI
AXIS
2.1 Introduction
Banking system plays an important role in a countrys economy. It promotes growth and
development of the country. The organized institutions in the banking system serve a source of
short term credit to agriculture, Industry, trade and commerce.
In the Indian banking structure the Reserve bank of India is the central bank. It regulates, direct
and control the banking and financial institutions in the country .There are three high banking
institutions namely RBI, NABARD AND EXIM Bank. There are separate financial institutions
catering to the needs of different sectors of the economy. Development banks, investment banks,
co-operative banks, commercial banks in public and private sectors. NABARD, RRBs, EXIM
bank, etc.
8|Page
R.B.I
Scheduled
Banks
Scheduled
Co-Operative
Banks
Scheduled
Commercial
Bank
Public Sector
Banks
Nationalised
Bank
Private Sector
Banks
Old private
sector banks
NonScheduled
Banks
Foreign Banks
Regional rural
Banks
Scheduled
urban cooperative
Banks
Scheduled
state cooperative
banks
New private
sector banks
State Bank of India (SBI) are an Indian multinational public sector banking and financial
services company. It is a government-owned corporation with its headquarters in Mumbai,
Maharashtra. As of 2014-15, it had assets of INR 20,480 billion (USD 310 billion) and more
than 14,000 branches, including 191 foreign offices spread across 36 countries, making it the
largest banking and financial services company in India by assets.
ICICI Bank was established by the Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India
(ICICI), an Indian financial institution, as a wholly owned subsidiary in 1994. The parent
9|Page
company was formed in 1955 as a joint-venture of the World Bank India's public-sector banks
and public-sector insurance companies to provide project financing to Indian industry. The bank
was founded as the Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Bank, before it
changed its name to the abbreviated ICICI Bank. The parent company was later merged with the
bank.
Axis Bank established in 1993 was the first of the new private banks to have begun operations in
1994 after the Government of India allowed new private banks to be established.Axis Bank Ltd.
has been promoted by the largest and the best Financial Institution of the country, UTI. The Bank
was set up with a capital of Rs. 115 crore, with UTI contributing Rs. 100 crore, LIC Rs. 7.5
crore and GIC and its four subsidiaries contributing Rs. 1.5 crore each. Axis Bank is one of the
first new generation private sector banks to have begun operations in 1994.
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ITC vision is to sustain ITCs position as one of Indias most valuable corporations to world
class performance, creating growing value for the Indian economy and the Companys
shareholders.
ITC mission is to enhance the wealth generating capability of the enterprise in a globalizing
environment delivering superior and sustainable stakeholder value.
Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) is an Indian consumer goods company based in Mumbai,
Maharashtra. It is owned by Anglo-Dutch Company Unilever which owns a 67% controlling
share in HUL as of March 2015 and is the holding company of HUL. HUL's products include
foods, beverages, cleaning agents, personal care products and water purifiers.
HUL was established in 1933 as Lever Brothers and, in 1956, became known as Hindustan Lever
Limited, as a result of a merger between Lever Brothers, Hindustan Vanaspati Mfg. Co. Ltd. and
United Traders Ltd. It is headquartered in Mumbai, India and employs over 16,000 workers,
whilst also indirectly helping to facilitate the employment of over 65,000 people. The company
was renamed in June 2007 as "Hindustan Unilever Limited".
Hindustan Unilever's distribution covers over 2 million retail outlets across India directly and its
products are available in over 6.4 million outlets in the country. As per Nielsen market research
data, two out of three Indians use HUL products.
Hindustan Unilever ranked No. 2 in Fortune India's Most Admired Companies list, which was
released by Fortune India in partnership with the Hay Group. The company received the highest
scores for endurance and financial soundness.
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Procter & Gamble Co., also known as P&G, is an American multinational consumer
goods company headquartered in downtown Cincinnati, Ohio, United States, founded
by William Procter and James Gamble, both from the United Kingdom.[2] Its products include
cleaning, and personal care products. Prior to the sale of Pringles to the Kellogg Company, its
product line also included foods and beverages.
In 2014, P&G recorded $83.1 billion in sales. On August 1, 2014, P&G announced it was
streamlining the company, dropping around 100 brands and concentrating on the remaining 65
brands, which produced 95 percent of the company's profits. A.G. Lafley, the company's
chairman, president and CEO until October 31, 2015, said the future P&G would be "a much
simpler, much less complex company of leading brands that's easier to manage and operate".
David Taylor became P&G CEO and President effective November 1, 2015. P&G remains a
highly selective employer as less than 1% of all applicants are hired annually.
P&G Mission is to provide branded products and services of superior quality and value that
improve the lives of the world's consumers. As a result, consumers will reward us with
leadership sales, profit, and value creation, allowing our people, our shareholders, and the
communities in which we live and work to prosper.
P&G vision is to be and be recognized as the best consumer products and services company in
the world.
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Introduction
Aim
Philosophy
Team
Integrity
Innovation
Product and Services
3.1 Introduction
Tradebulls securities (p) limited demonstrate its commitments to clients through the Company's
emphasis on excellence, integrity and ethical behavior. Tradebulls was formed with one basic
principle in mind to create a professional workforce of youngsters to provide fair and transparent
prices and services to the clients. High standard of service with true professionalism have been
woven into the fabric of the company.
3.2 Aim
"To provide world-class Wealth Management Services by arranging all conceivable financial
services under one-roof at affordable costs through cost effective delivery systems, and to
achieve organic growth in business by adding newer lines of business, with the help of selfmotivated and aggressive team of young professionals."
3.3 Philosophy
The companys philosophy is entirely client centric, with a clear focus on providing long term
value addition to clients, while maintaining the highest standards of excellence, ethics and
professionalism.
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3.4 Team
We are a cavalcade of passionate youngsters who believe in attaining goals collectively and
collaboratively.
3.5 Integrity
A company honoring commitment with highest ethical and business practices.
3.6 Innovation
Our ability to develop unique solutions to meet our clients need is paramount in our day to day
decision making.
Commodity derivatives
Currency
Internet trading
Depositary participant
IPO
Mutual fund
15 | P a g e
Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well-being of the
economy, industry group and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to develop a forecast
of future price movement and profit from it. At the company level, fundamental analysis may
involve examination of financial data, management, business concept and competition. At the
industry level, there might be an examination of supply and demand forces of the product. For
the national economy, fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present
and future growth of the economy.
To forecast future stock price, fundamental analysis combines economy, industry, and company
analysis to derive a stocks fair value called intrinsic value. If fair value is not equal to the
current stock price, fundamental analysis believes that the stock is either over or under valued.
As the current market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair values, the fair value should be
estimated to decide whether to buy the security or not. By believing that prices do not accurately
reflect all available information, fundamental analysis look to capitalize on perceived price
discrepancies.
Fundamental analysis Benefits:
1. Identifying the intrinsic value of a security
2. Identifying long-term investment opportunities, since it involves real-time data.
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4.2COMPANY ANALYSIS
At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data,
management, business concept and competition. Financial statements are the medium by which a
company discloses information concerning its financial performance. The fundamental analyst
use the quantitative information gained from financial statements to make investments decisions.
RATIOS:
Ratios are relationships from a companys financial information and used for comparison
purposes.
Some important ratios used to analyze banking companies are:
how
company is in
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Return on Assets
Formula: Net income / Total Asset
Interpretation: The return on assets ratio measures how effectively a company can earn a
return on its investment in assets. In other words, ROA shows how efficiently a company can
convert the money used to purchase assets into net income or profits.
EPS
Formula: Net profit / Total number of outstanding shares
Interpretation: Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company's profit allocated to each
outstanding share of common stock. Earnings per share serve as an indicator of a company's
profitability.
PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT: A profit and loss statement (P&L) is a financial
statement that summarizes the revenues, costs and expenses incurred during a specific period
of time, usually a fiscal quarter or year. These records provide information about a
company's ability or lack thereof to generate profit by increasing revenue, reducing costs,
or both. The P&L statement is also referred to as "statement of profit and loss", "income
statement," "statement of operations," "statement of financial results," and "income and
expense statement."
FINANCIAL GRAPHS: It is the visual presentation of the financial data of the companies.
It is a very important tool for getting a financial overview of the company like profits, sales,
return on capital employed, dividend, etc.
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21 | P a g e
Line chart
Line chart:
The line chart is the most basic chart type and it uses only one data point to form the chart. When
it comes to technical analysis, a line chart is formed by plotting the closing prices of a stock or an
index. A dot is placed for each closing price and the various dots are then connected by a line .If
we are looking 60 days data then the line chart is formed by connecting the dots of the closing
prices for 60 days.
The line charts can be plotted for various time frames namely monthly, weekly, hourly etc. So, if
you wish to draw a weekly line chart, you can use weekly closing prices of securities and
likewise for the other time frames as well.
The advantage of the line chart is its simplicity. With one glance, the trader can identify the
generic trend of the security. However the disadvantage of the line chart is also its simplicity.
Besides giving the analysts a view on the trend, the line chart does not provide any additional
detail. Plus the line chart takes into consideration only the closing prices ignoring the open, high
and low. For this reason traders prefer not to use the line charts.
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Candlestick chart:
A candlestick chart is a financial graph in which the open and close prices are displayed by a
rectangular body. In a candle stick chart, candles can be classified as a bullish or bearish candle
usually represented by blue/green/white and red/black candles respectively. Needless to say, the
colors can be customized to any color of your choice; the technical analysis software allows you
to do this. we have opted for the blue and red combination to represent bullish and bearish
candles respectively.
Let us look at the Bullish candle. The candlestick, like a bar chart is made of 3 components.
1. The Central real body The real body, rectangular in shape connects the opening and closing
price
2. Upper shadow Connects the high point to the close
3. Lower Shadow Connects the low point to the open
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24 | P a g e
This is how the candlestick chart looks like if you were to plot them on a time series. The blue
candle indicates bullishness and red indicates bearishness
RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX RSI: The Relative Strength Index Technical Indicator
(RSI) is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to
recent losses in an asset.
ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: The advance/decline line shows, for some period, the
cumulative difference between advancing and declining issues.
HEAD AND SHOULDERS FORMATION: Once a chart is drawn, analysts examine it for
various formations or pattern types in an attempt to predict stock price or market direction in
the case of head-and-shoulders formation. When the stock price pierces the neckline after
the right shoulder is finished, its time to sell.
MOVING AVERAGE: Moving averages are trend indicators and are frequently used due to
their simplicity and effectiveness. Moving averages can be calculated for any time frame,
from minutes, hours, and hours to years. Any time frame can be selected from the charting
software based of your requirements.
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5. Fundamental Analysis
Banking Industry
5.1 ICICI Bank
5.2 AXIS Bank
5.3 SBI Bank
FMCG Industry
5.4 HUL
5.5 ITC
5.6 P & G
Net income
Net sales
Ratios
March 2012
6,465
33,545
19.27%
March 2013
8325.47
40,075.60
20.77%
March 2014
9810.48
44,178.15
22.20%
March 2015
11,175.35
49,091.14
22.76%
March 2016
9726.29
52739.43
18.44%
Mar-12
20.77%
22.76%
22.20%
18.44%
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
In March 2012, the net profit of the bank stood at 19.27 % and grew to a high of 22.76 % in
March 2015 due to increase in profit in proportion to sales while it reduced to a low of
18.44% in March 2016 due to reduced profits compared to previous years.
27 | P a g e
Net interest
Operating exp.
Total Interest
income
Ratio
Income
March 2012
10,734.15
11,483
33,542.65
-0.02%
March 2013
13,866.42
15,379.71
40,075.60
-0.03%
March 2014
16,475.56
19,712.26
44,178.15
-0.07%
March 2015
19,039.61
24,493.94
49,091.14
-0.11%
March 2016
21,224.04
26,987.70
52,739.43
-0.10%
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
-0.03%
-0.07%
-0.11%
-0.10%
The operating profit margin of the bank reduced drastically from March 2012 to
March
2016 due to higher operating expenses against Net interest income over a period of 5 years.
Return on Assets:
Year
Net income
Total assets
Ratio
March 2012
6,465.26
4,73,647.09
1.36
March 2013
8,325.47
5,36,794.69
1.55
March 2014
9,810.48
5,94,641.60
1.64
March 2015
11,175.35
6,46,129.29
1.72
March 2016
9,726.29
7,17,877.63
1.34
28 | P a g e
Return on asset
1.55
1.36
Mar-12
Mar-13
1.72
1.64
1.34
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The return on assets of the bank remained quite consistent between 1.36 in March 2012, to a
high of 1.72 in March 2015 and 1.34 in March 2016. The bank has earned consistently
against the capital invested in assets.
Net income
Shareholders
Ratio
equity
March 2012
6,465.26
60,405.25
10.70
March 2013
8,325.47
66,705.96
12.48
March 2014
9,810.48
73,213.32
13.39
March 2015
11,175.35
80,429.36
13.89
March 2016
9,726.29
86,918.11
11.19
Return on equity
13.89
12.48
13.39
11.19
10.7
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
29 | P a g e
Mar-16
The banks return on equity rose from 10.7% in March 2012 to 13.89% in March 2015 and
slipped to 11.19% in March 2016 due to rise and fall in income compared to shareholders
equity.
The net interest margin of the bank was 0.02 as of March 2012 and grew to a consistent
figure of 0.03 over period of March 2013 to March 2016, which shows banks effective
lending practices and efficiency.
Net interest
Total Assets
Ratios
earned
March 2012
10,734.15
437,647.09
7.08
March 2013
13,866.42
536,794.69
7.46
March 2014
16,475.56
594,641.60
7.42
March 2015
19,039.61
646,129.29
7.59
March 2016
21,224.04
717,877.63
7.31
Interest income
7.46
7.59
7.42
7.31
7.08
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The Interest income of the bank remained range bounded from March 2012 to March 2016
against its total assets which shows consistency in banks quality in lending practices.
30 | P a g e
Non -interest income / Total Assets (%): Other income / Total assets
Year
Other income
Total assets
Ratios
March 2012
7,502.76
437,647.09
1.58
March 2013
8,345.70
536,794.69
1.55
March 2014
March 2015
10,427.87
12,176.13
594,641.60
646,129.29
1.75
1.88
March 2016
15,323.05
717,877.63
2.12
Non-interest income
1.58
Mar-12
1.75
1.55
Mar-13
1.88
Mar-14
Mar-15
2.12
Mar-16
Banks other income grew to 2.12% in March 2016 compared to 1.58% in March 2012 which
shows rise in earning from other sources of bank.
Operating profit
Total Assets
Ratios
March 2012
3408.24
437,647.09
0.77
March 2013
5343.69
536,794.69
0.99
March 2014
6742.67
594,641.60
1.13
March 2015
8202.73
646,129.29
1.26
March 2016
9238.99
717,877.63
1.28
31 | P a g e
1.28
1.26
1.13
0.77
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The operating profit of the bank grew to 1.28% in March 2016 compared to 0.77% in March
2012 which shows banks efficiency in operations and management of liquidity over a period
of time.
Operating expenses / Total Assets (%): (Selling, general and administrative expenses) / Total Assets
Year
Operating
Total Assets
Ratio
expenses
March 2012
7,850.44
473,647.09
1.65
March 2013
9,012.88
536,794.69
1.67
March 2014
10,308.86
594,641.60
1.73
March 2015
11,495.83
646,129.29
1.77
March 2016
12,683.56
717,877.63
1.75
Mar-12
1.75
1.67
Mar-13
Mar-14
32 | P a g e
Mar-15
Mar-16
The operating expenses of the bank rose to 1.75% in March 2016 compared to 1.65% in
March 2012 and remained range bounded over a period of time which shows efficiency and
control over operating expenses.
Net profit
Total outstanding
Ratios
shares(in crores)
March 2012
6,465.26
1,152.77
56.1
March 2013
8,325.47
1,153.64
72.2
March 2014
9810.48
1,155.04
84.9
March 2015
11,175.35
1,159.66
19.3
March 2016
9,726.29
1,163.17
16.75
EPS
12
19.3
10
8
72.2
84.9
Jan/13
Jan/14
16.75
6
4
56.1
2
0
Jan/12
Jan/15
Jan/16
The EPS of the bank over a period of time rise and fall due to increase and decrease in profits
from March 2012 to March 2016.
33 | P a g e
Net income
Net sales
Ratios
March 2012
4,242.21
21,994.65
22.35
March 2013
5,179.43
27,182.57
19.28
March 2014
6,217.67
30,641.16
19.05
March 2015
7,357.82
35,478.60
20.29
March 2016
8,223.66
35,478.60
20.73
20.29
19.28
Mar-12
Mar-13
20.73
19.05
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The Net profit margin of the bank reduced to 20.73% as of March 2016 compared to 22.35%
as of March 2012 because of greater increase in rate of sales compared to rate of increase in
net income of the bank.
34 | P a g e
Operating profit margin: NII (net interest income-operating exp.) / Total interest income
Year
Net interest
Operating
Total interest
Ratios
income
expense
income
March 2012
6,562.99
6,007.10
21,994.65
2.52
March 2013
8,017.55
6,914.24
27,182.57
4.05
March 2014
9,666.26
7,900.77
30,641.16
5.76
March 2015
11,951.64
9,203.75
35,478.60
7.74
March 2016
14,224.14
9,203.75
35,478.60
14.15
7.74
5.76
4.05
2.52
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The Operating profit margin of the bank surged to 14.15% as of March 2016 compared to
2.52% as of March 2012. This shows banks efficiency over controlling costs relatively with
rise in interest income which also reflects banks efficient and quality lending practices.
Net income
Total Assets
Ratios
March 2012
4,242.21
285,627.79
1.39
March 2013
5,179.43
340,560.66
1.48
March 2014
6,217.67
383,244.89
1.52
March 2015
7,357.82
461,932.39
1.62
March 2016
8,223.66
461,932.39
1.59
35 | P a g e
Return on asset
1.62
1.48
1.59
1.52
1.39
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The return on assets of the bank surged to 1.59% as of March 2016 compared to 1.39% as of
March 2012. This shows banks capacity to earn over investment done in assets.
Net income
Shareholders
Ratios
equity
March 2012
4,242.21
413.20
17.83
March 2013
5,179.43
467.95
18.59
March 2014
6,217.67
469.84
15.64
March 2015
7,357.82
474.10
16.26
March 2016
8,223.66
474.10
16.46
18.59
16.26
15.64
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
36 | P a g e
16.46
Mar-16
The return on equity of the bank declined to 16.46% as of March 2016 from the high of
18.59% as of March 2013 due to relatively low growth rate of net income with respect to
shareholders equity.
Interest Income / Total Assets (%) : Net interest income earned / Total assets
Year
Net interest
Total Assets
Ratios
income
March 2012
6,562.99
285,627.79
6.24
March 2013
8,017.75
340,560.66
7.70
March 2014
9,666.26
383,244.89
7.98
March 2015
11,951.64
461,932.39
7.99
March 2016
14,224.14
461,932.39
7.68
7.7
7.99
7.68
6.24
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The Interest income of the bank surged to 7.68% as of March 2016 compared to 6.24% as of
March 2012 due to rise in interest income over total assets. This shows banks effective
lending practices and efficiency.
Non -interest income / Total Assets (%): Other income / Total assets
Year
Other income
Total Assets
Ratios
March 2012
5,420.22
285,627.79
1.90
March 2013
6,551.11
340,560.66
1.89
37 | P a g e
March 2014
7,405.22
383,244.89
1.92
March 2015
8,365.05
461,932.39
1.93
March 2016
8,365.05
461,932.39
1.81
1.93
1.92
1.89
1.81
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Non-interest income of the bank decreased to 1.81% as of March 2016 compared to the high
of 1.93% as of March 2015 due to increase in amount of total assets over increase in sources
of other incomes.
Operating Profit
Total Assets
Ratios
March 2012
2352.88
285,627.79
0.82
March 2013
3103.76
340,560.66
0.91
March 2014
4414.79
383,244.89
1.15
March 2015
5426.06
461,932.39
1.17
March 2016
7176.06
461,932.39
1.55
38 | P a g e
1.15
0.91
0.82
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The Operating profit of the bank grew substantially from 0.82% as of March 2012 to 1.55%
as of March 2016, because of efficient control over expenses and higher operating income
with respect to assets.
Operating expenses / Total Assets (%) : (Selling, general and administrative expenses) / TA
Year
Total Assets
Ratios
exp
March 2012
5,903.14
242,713.37
1.96
March 2013
6,773.35
285,627.80
2.10
Mach 2014
8,309.22
340,560.67
2.03
March 2015
10,173.91
383,244.89
2.06
March 2016
11,710.72
461,932.39
1.99
39 | P a g e
2.03
1.99
1.96
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The operating expenses of the bank with respect to total assets remain range bounded due to
control over operating expenses and increase in amount of total assets.
Net profit
Total shares
Ratios
March 2012
4,242.21
410.55
82.95
March 2013
5,179.43
413.20
102.94
March 2014
6,217.67
467.95
119.67
March 2015
7,357.82
469.84
132.56
March 2016
8,223.66
474.10
31.18
EPS
102.94
132.56
119.67
82.95
31.18
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
40 | P a g e
Mar-16
The EPS of the bank surged from 2012 to 2015 but declined in 2016 due to relatively low
growth rate of profit compared to number of total number of shares.
5.3 SBI:
State Bank of India (SBI) is an Indian multinational, sector bank in Indian financial services
company. It is a government-owned corporation. State Bank of India is a banking behemoth
and has 20% market share in deposits and loans among Indian commercial banks
Ratio Analysis:
Net income
Net sales
Ratios
March 2012
11,707.29
120,872.90
10.99
March 2013
14,104.98
135,691.94
11.78
March 2014
10,891.17
154,903.72
7.98
March 2015
13,101.57
174,972.96
8.59
March 2016
9,950.65
191,843.67
6.07
11.78
7.98
8.59
6.07
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The Net profit margin of the bank declined to 6.07% as of March 2016 compared to high of
11.78% as of March 2012 and 10.99% as of March 2012, due to decrease in profit over a
period of time.
41 | P a g e
Operating profit margin (%): NII (net interest income-operating exp.) / Total interest income
Year
Net interest
Operating exp.
Total interest
income
Ratios
income
March 2012
43,291.08
26,068.99
119,657.10
-2.48
March 2013
44,331.30
29,284.42
136,350.80
-1.61
March 2014
49,282.17
35,725.85
152,397.07
-5.61
March 2015
55,015.25
38,677.64
152,397.07
-6.21
March 2016
56,881.82
41,782.36
163,685.31
-11.12
Mar-13
-1.61
Mar-14
Mar-15
-5.61
Mar-16
-6.21
-11.12
The operating profit margin of the bank declined drastically over a period of time to -11.12%
as of March 2016 compared to -2.48% as of March 2012. This shows banks lack of control
over expenses.
Net income
Total Assets
Ratios
March 2012
11,707.29
1,335,519.24
0.87
March 2013
14,104.98
1,566,261.03
0.90
March 2014
10,891.17
1,792,234.60
0.60
42 | P a g e
March 2015
13,101.57
2,048,079.80
0.63
March 2016
9,950.65
2,259,063.05
0.44
Return on asset
0.87
0.9
0.63
0.6
0.44
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The return on Assets of the bank declined to 0.44% as of March 2016 compared to 0.87% as
of March 2012, due to declining profits and rise in assets over a period of time.
Net income
Shareholders
Ratios
equity
March 2012
11,707.29
684.03
13.94
March 2013
14,104.98
746.57
14.26
March 2014
10,891.17
746.57
9.20
March 2015
13,101.57
746.57
10.20
March 2016
9,950.65
776.28
6.89
43 | P a g e
13.94
10.2
9.2
6.89
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The banks return on equity declined to 6.89% as of March 2016 compared to 19.94% as of
March 2012, due to declining profits and increase in shareholders equity.
Interest Income / Total Assets (%) : Net interest income earned / Total assets
Year
Net interest
Total assets
Ratios
income
March 2012
43,291.08
1,335,519.24
7.97
March 2013
44,331.30
1,566,261.03
7.63
March 2014
49,282.17
1,792,234.60
7.60
March 2015
55,015.25
2,048,079.80
7.44
March 2016
56,881.82
2,259,063.05
7.24
7.6
7.44
7.24
Mar-12
mar-13
mar-14
mar-15
44 | P a g e
mar-16
The interest income of the bank declined to 7.24% as of March 2016 compared to 7.97 as of
March 2012, due to slow rate of growth in interest income compared to increase in Total
assets.
Non -interest income / Total Assets (%): Other income / Total assets
Year
Other income
Total Assets
Ratios
March 2012
14,351.45
1,335,519.24
1.07
March 2013
16,034.84
1,566,261.03
1.02
March 2014
18,552.92
1,792,234.60
1.03
March 2015
22,575.89
2,048,079.80
1.10
March 2016
28,158.36
2,259,063.05
1.24
Mar-12
1.03
1.02
Mar-13
Mar-14
1.1
Mar-15
1.24
Mar-16
The Non-interest income of the bank surged to 1.24% as of March 2016 compared to 1.07%
as of March 2012, this shows banks increase in income from other sources with respect to
total assets.
Operating Profit
Total Assets
Ratios
March 2012
18,229.26
1,335,519.24
1.36
March 2013
16,186.49
1,566,261.03
1.03
45 | P a g e
March 2014
14,890.26
1,792,234.60
0.83
March 2015
17,454.10
2,048,079.80
0.53
March 2016
16,799.75
2,259,063.05
0.74
0.74
0.53
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
THE Operating profit of the bank declined to 0.74% of total assets as of March 2016
compared to 1.36% as of March 2012, due to decline in operating profit compared to total
assets.
Operating
Total Assets
Ratios
expenses
March 2012
26,068.99
1,566,261.04
1.95
March 2013
29,284.42
1,792,234.60
1.86
March 2014
35,725.85
2,048,079.80
1.99
March 2015
38,677.64
2,048,079.80
1.88
March 2016
41,782.36
2,259,063.03
1.84
46 | P a g e
1.86
Mar-12
1.84
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
The operating expenses of the bank declined to 1.84% of total assets as of March 2016
compares to high of 1.99% as of March 2014. Operating expenses as well as total assets both
surged over a period of time.
Net profit
Total Shares(in
Ratios
crores)
March 2012
11,707.29
684.03
March 2013
14,104.98
46.57
210.06
March 2014
10,891.17
746.57
156.76
March 2015
13,101.57
746.57
17.55
March 2016
9,950.65
776.28
12.98
EPS
184.31
210.06
156.76
17.55
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Chart 5.27 EPS
47 | P a g e
Mar-15
12.98
Mar-16
The EPS of the bank declined to 12.98 as of March 2016 from the high of 210.06 as of
March 2013, due to declined profits over total number of shares. This shows decline in
earning capacity of the bank.
FMCG Industry
5.4 HUL
Hindustan Unilever Limited is an Indian consumer goods company based in Mumbai,
Maharashtra. It is owned by Anglo-Dutch Company Unilever which owns a 67% controlling
share in HUL as of March 2015 and is the holding company of HUL.
Ratios
Mar-16
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio
1.03
1.05
1.03
0.99
1.21
Quick Ratio
0.75
0.76
0.71
0.66
0.82
225.78
225.94
215.55
224.19
201.82
0.36
0.3
0.34
0.44
0.28
12.76
14
13.8
14.7
12.16
Return on Equity
110.73
115.87
118.04
142.01
76.62
18.87
19.95
17.88
17.56
12.46
48 | P a g e
Current Ratios
1.4
1.21
1.2
1.05
1.03
0.99
1.03
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Ratios
Mar/12
1.21
Mar/13
0.99
Mar/14
1.03
Mar/15
1.05
Mar/16
1.03
142.01
140
118.04
120
100
80
115.87
110.73
76.62
60
40
20
0
Return on Equity (%)
Mar/12
76.62
Mar/13
142.01
Mar/14
118.04
49 | P a g e
Mar/15
115.87
Mar/16
110.73
16.00%
14.00%
13.80%
14.00%
12.76%
12.16%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
Mar/12
NET PROFIT RATIO 12.16%
Mar/13
14.70%
50 | P a g e
Mar/14
13.80%
Mar/15
14.00%
Mar/16
12.76%
DEBT-EQUITY RATIO
0.5
0.44
0.4
0.36
0.34
0.3
0.28
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
DEBT-EQUITY
RATIO
Mar/12
Mar/13
Mar/14
Mar/15
Mar/16
0.28
0.44
0.34
0.3
0.36
Axis Title
20
15
17.56
17.88
18.87
12.46
10
5
0
Basic EPS (Rs.)
Mar/12
12.46
Mar/13
17.56
Mar/14
17.88
51 | P a g e
Mar/15
19.95
Mar/16
18.87
5.5 ITC
Mar-16
Ratios
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
Liquidity ratio
Current Ratio
2.05
1.82
1.7
1.59
1.54
Quick Ratio
1.38
1.18
1.06
0.97
0.92
19.88
21.73
22.39
21.8
21.27
0.06
0.058
0.56
0.063
0.057
26.31
26.43
24.8
24.47
23.24
Activity Ratio
Total Asset turnover Ratio
Leverage Ratio
Debt-Equity Ratio
Profitability Ratio (in % )
Net profit Ratio
31.31
Return on Equity
33.51
12.05
33.36
11.09
32.88
9.45
31.36
7.93
2.5
2.05
2
1.54
1.59
1.7
1.82
1.5
1
0.5
0
Current Ratio (X)
Mar/12
1.54
Mar/13
1.59
Chart 5.33 CR
52 | P a g e
Mar/14
1.7
Mar/15
1.82
Mar/16
2.05
6.45
34
33.5
33
32.5
32
31.5
31
30.5
30
33.51
33.36
32.88
31.36
31.31
Mar/12
31.36
Mar/13
32.88
Mar/14
33.36
Mar/15
33.51
Mar/16
31.31
0.063
0.062
0.062
0.061
0.06
0.06
0.059
0.058
0.058
0.057
0.057
0.056
0.056
0.055
0.054
0.053
DEBT-EQUITY
RATIO
Mar/12
Mar/13
Mar/14
Mar/15
Mar/16
0.057
0.062
0.056
0.058
0.06
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EPS (Rs.)
14
9.45
10
8
12.05
11.09
12
7.93
6.45
6
4
2
0
EPS (Rs.)
Mar/12
6.45
Mar/13
7.93
Mar/14
9.45
Mar/15
11.09
Mar/16
12.05
5.6 P&G
Ratios
Liquidity ratio
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Activity Ratio
Total Asset turnover Ratio
Leverage Ratio
Debt-Equity Ratio
Profitability Ratio (in % )
Net profit Ratio
Return on Equity
Earnings Per share
Mar-16
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
1.9
1.73
2.02
1.78
2.16
1.85
1.93
1.7
2.19
1.95
17.77
20.02
16.96
16.5
17.19
0.001
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.009
14.83
28.17
106.63
14.72
30.11
93.04
12.04
25.23
62.61
13.97
26
55.85
15.04
25.11
46.48
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2.19
2.16
2.02
1.93
1.9
Mar/12
2.19
Mar/13
1.93
Mar/14
2.16
Mar/15
2.02
Mar/16
1.9
Chart 3.37 CR
1.95
1.95
1.9
1.85
1.85
1.78
1.8
1.75
1.73
1.7
1.7
1.65
1.6
1.55
Quick Ratio (X)
Mar/12
1.95
Mar/13
1.7
Mar/14
1.85
55 | P a g e
Mar/15
1.78
Mar/16
1.73
15.04
14.83
14.72
13.97
14
12.047
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Net Profit Margin (%)
Mar/12
15.04
Mar/13
13.97
Mar/14
12.047
Mar/15
14.72
Mar/16
14.83
30.11
28.17
26
25.23
25.11
Return on Networth /
Equity (%)
Mar/12
Mar/13
Mar/14
Mar/15
Mar/16
25.11
26
25.23
30.11
28.17
56 | P a g e
EPS (Rs.)
120
93.04
100
80
60
100.63
62.61
55.85
45.48
40
20
0
EPS (Rs.)
Mar/12
45.48
Mar/13
55.85
Mar/14
62.61
57 | P a g e
Mar/15
93.04
Mar/16
100.63
6. Technical Analysis
Banks
ICICI
AXIS
SBI (State Bank of India)
FMCG Sector
HUL (Hindustan Unilever Limited)
ITC ( Imperial Tobacco Company)
P&G ( Proctor & Gamble)
Technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices
through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.
6.1ICICI bank
CANDLESTCK CHART:
ICICI Bank chart is positive if we look at the long term time frame. We can conclude that on
basis that ICICI Bank is trading above its 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average). If we
take the trend line from 2011 from 2016 as shown in chart, the script is trading above it.
Also it is making higher high and higher lows that are the sign of bullish trend.
RSI CHART:
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RSI_14 has shown buy signal. RSI_14 has made double bottom as seen in the chart and that
also adds bullish sentiment.
ADX CHART:
ADX is giving contradictory assessment, as it is still showing sell signal. When green line
crosses red line then we can say ADX has given buy signal. Right now it is still showing sell
signal.
Axis Bank has broken out of the symmetrical triangle pattern and is looking positive now. It
is also trading above all important moving average namely E50, E100 and E200. In fact
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during the last candle in symmetrical triangle pattern, it made marubozu candle stick pattern
which of course suggest bullish trend. It is also trading above its long term trend line.
RSI CHART
RSI_14 is now in overbought zone so some caution is needed. Previously too if we look at
the RSI, it made high of 77 and right now its 72, so there is still some headspace for this
stock to go. RSI has also shown negative divergence but as long as it is above the
symmetrical triangle pattern and long term trend line it should be considered positive.
ADX CHART
6.3SBI
CANDLETICK CHART
SBIN has taken its crucial support at 200 EMA and has bounced off from that level. Next it
may face resistance at 50 EMA. Previously, we have seen from the chart, when SBIN breaks
above 50 EMA, it has shown significant strength. It is trading above E100 but it needs to
break above 50 EMA. It has also made double bottom which is at 200 EMA and bounced
from that level as seen in the chart. This signifies that the bottom is important as two
important indicators have shown support at that level. SBIN is now at the long term trend
line and if it manages to close above that, then we can say this stock will move up more.
RSI CHART:
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RSI_14 has crossed and given buy signal indicating fresh long position can be taken. It
concurs with the trend line breakout in RSI_14. If RSI_14 goes above 50, it will indicate
more strength in the stock.
ADX CHART:
FMCG SECTOR
6.4 HUL
CANDLETICK CHART:
Moving Average: - It is also trading above 200 DMA which is considered important for long
term investing.
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Trend line: - HUL is trading above Long term trend line and long term trend is positive. Long
term trend can be under threat if it breaks the trend line level of 730-720. The long term trend
line is taken from the lows of 218 from 2010 to 432 from 2013. Even medium term trend line
shows positive trend with trend reversal below 760. Its short term trend is also positive and short
term trend can reverse when HUL trades below 800. The short term trend is taken from lows of
542 in 2014 to 766 in 2016.
RSI CHART:
RSI is trading at 60 level which shows this stock has more room to go as above 75-80, we
can consider overbought. Also whenever stock is trading above 50, it means there is strength
in stock and should be considered as Buy.
RSI has made triple bottom on monthly chart again showing support at RSI level of 52. If
HUL breaks below 52, then we can consider liquidating long position in HUL.
ADX CHART:
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ADX is showing positive trend since 2010 but if we look at from 2014, volatility is subsiding
indicating consolidation in this stock.
6.5ITC
CANDLETICK CHART:
Moving Average: - It is also trading above 200 DMA But in medium term it is negative because
it had trend reversal and shows the lower in low.
Trend line: - ITC is trading above Long term trend line and long term trend is not comparatively
positive with HUL. Medium term trend can be under threat if it breaks the trend line level of
210-200. The short term trend is taken from lows of 210 in 2014 to 243 in 2016.
RSI CHART:
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RSI is trading at 60 level which shows this stock has more room to go as above 75-80, we
can consider overbought. Also whenever stock is trading above 50, it means there is strength
in stock and should be considered as Buy.
ADX CHART:
ADX is showing positive trend since 2010 but if we look at from 2014, though volatility is
measured in this stock.
6.6P&G
CANDLETICK CHART:
Moving Average:- It is also trading above 200 DMA which is considered important for long
term investing.
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Trend line:- P&G is trading above Long term trend line and long term trend is positive. But
medium term trend line shows negative trend because it had lower low in 2015.
RSI CHART:
RSI is overbought in 2015 at 95.And in 2016 it is at 60. It means there is too much
fluctuation in the stock and should be considered as sell signal.
ADX CHART:
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7. Key Findings
A l egal d eci si on
Particulars
SBI Bank
Findings
Net Profit of the bank is continuously decreasing. In March, 2012 it was
10.99% and in March, 2016 it was around 6%.
Return on Equity & Return on Assets are also not up to the mark, both
are exactly half in March, 2016 as compared with March, 2012.
ADX is still showing negative trend because of fluctuations.
ICICI Bank
Axis Bank
Operating Profit of the bank is showing the hard core efficiency over
controlling the cost and also improves the quality of lending practices.
Interest income of the bank is slowly and gradually increases. Management
of lending policy works effectively in last 5 years.
The Candlestick chart of Axis Bank has broken out of the symmetrical
triangle pattern and is looking positive now. It is also trading above its long
term trend line.
HUL
Earnings per Share of the company shows the positive trend for the
shareholders. Because the journey of last 5 years it is increasing by 6 bugs.
Current and Quick ratio tells the systematic management of the
inventories and other liquid assets. Both are very stable throw-out the long
term period.
The Candlestick Chart is showing that HUL is trading above Long term
trend line and long term trend is positive.
ITC
Earnings Per share are suddenly hiked with 100%. In March, 2012 it was
around 6.45 bugs and in last financial y ear it was @12 bugs which shoes
the perfect positive trend to current as well as future investors.
Current ratio, Quick ratio and Total asset T/o ratios are not up to their
benchmark level. It seems that company faced many hurdles to maintain
these ratios up to the mark.
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EPS is at its top most position for P&G. It is increasing rapidly between
2012 to 2015. It was @ 47 in March, 2012, 62@ March, 2014 and it crossed
the 100 bugs in last financial year.
Moving average is trading above 200 DMA which is considered important
for long term investing. Share price of P&G is also positive to invest and
Candlestick is also OHCH.
RSI is overbought in 2015 at 95.And in 2016 it is at 60. It means there is
too much fluctuation in the stock and should be considered as sell signal.
ADX says that volatility is going to consolidate. ADX is positive.
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8. Recommendations
From the analysis and interpretation we found that banking sector is very sensitive to the
changing faces of the economy.
Also banks lending practices, risk management practices, liquidity plays an important role in
determining increase or decrease of share price of the bank.
The Net profit margin, Net interest margin, EPS and other fundamentals as well as technical
factors of the private sector banks shows an overall positive picture.
FMCG is a market where cut- throat competition is accrued. Every day they introduce a new
product for consumers.
For FMCG companies they have to maintain proper current ratio, quick ratio, profit-sale
margin to survive in the market.
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9. Conclusion
From the above project I can conclude that it is easy to know the fundamental situation of
FMCG sector and Banking sector and also do a forecast about the future profits of the
companies.
With the help of technical analysis I have found that, the future price movements of both the
sectors and easy to compare among them. Fundamental and technical analysis are the best
solution if one wants to invest into the stock market and make perfect decisions to choose the
right company at right time.
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