Monthly Industry Briefing - Consumer Goods

Jan
2014
Consumer Goods
The improvement in US consumer goods production continued
through to end-2013, although annual growth in December was
still a relatively modest 1.3%. With employment rising gradually
Consumer goods: Output growth
alongside consumer confidence, 2014 is expected to see
further output gains despite the Feds tapering of its monetary % year
25
EU15
stimulus.
20
With the exception of Italy, consumer goods production in

Europe strengthened in November, in line with the gradual
rebound in the continents economies. Particularly encouraging
were the gains posted by German firms while in year-on-year
terms UK companies continued to lead the way. Unilevers
latest results also beat expectations, notably in emerging
markets where slowdowns had earlier been warned about.
Production of consumer goods in Japan slipped fractionally in
November but still stood 2.0% higher than a year earlier. A
trend decline in Japanese production has been reversed, aided
by a more competitive currency, but the key test of its
sustainability will come with Aprils consumption tax hike.
10
US
5
0
Forecast
-5
-10
-15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Oxford Economics
Emerging countries: Consumer goods output

growth
EU15: Consumer goods output growth

% year
10
Japan
15
% year
Paper, &
printing
20
Food, beverages
& tobacco
16
Paper & printing

12
-5
Food, beverages
& tobacco
-10
-15
Textiles, leather
& clothing
-4
Forecast
Textiles, leather &
clothing
Forecast
-8
-20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Consumer goods: Output
Consumer goods: Output
2005=100
110
2005=100
105
3 month moving average
103
105
Germany
Italy
101
99
Japan
100
97
95
95
93
UK, Germany,
France, Italy
91
90
UK
France
89
US
85
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics
87
Dec-12
Dec-13

85
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Economist: Jeremy Leonard, Director of Industry Services | Tel: +44 20 7803 1429 | e-mail: jleonard@oxfordeconomics.com
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Dec-13
Jan
2014
Food, beverages & tobacco: Output
Pulp, paper & printing: Output
2005=100
% year
10
108
UK, Germany,
France, Italy
106
Italy
Germany
104
102
100
US
98
-5
96
94
-10
92
90
88
Japan
UK
-15
France
86
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
-20
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Source: Haver Analytics
Textiles: Output growth
Textiles: New orders
% year
% year 3mma
25
15
US
Italy
20
10
15
10
-5
Japan
-10
-5
-15
-10
-20
-15
-25
-20
-30
-25
-35
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Germany
-30
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Source: StaBu / ISTAT
Textiles & clothing: Output growth
Textiles & clothing: Output growth
% year
% year
30
40
Turkey
20
Poland,
textiles
Korea,
textiles
3 month moving
average, except
for Korea
China,
clothing
20
10
0
-10
Mexico
-20
Taiwan,
textiles
-20
-30
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
-40
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Jan
2014
Pulp & paper: Output
Textiles & Clothing: Prices
% year
% year
8
15
US
Japan
10
4
-5
UK
3
-10
US
-15
-20
Germany
-25
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
-1
Dec-08
Dec-13
% year
14
% year
5
12
10
3
UK
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Pulp, paper & printing: Prices
Food, beverages & tobacco: Prices
Dec-09
US
US
-1
-2
-2
Germany
-4
-6
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
UK
Germany
-3
Dec-11
Dec-12
-4
Dec-08
Dec-13
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Industry Output - Consumer Goods

USA
Dec
Value Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted

Japan
Germany
France
Italy
% change Index
% change
UK
Index
% change
Index
% change
Index
90.3
1.9
93.7
-3.2
83.3
0.5
89.5
0.4
Index % change Index

85.1
-4.7
87.5
% change
-8.3
90.2
90.4
90.2
89.6
89.8
90.6
90.0
90.1
90.0
90.4
90.7
91.4
1.0
0.8
1.4
0.1
0.3
1.4
0.3
1.1
0.7
2.7
1.5
1.3
92.2
92.9
93.5
91.6
93.1
92.6
94.5
93.9
93.1
94.9
94.7
-
-6.4
-5.5
-4.7
-4.6
-1.8
-3.0
-0.6
0.2
0.3
0.7
2.0
-
84.4
82.1
81.8
81.6
81.9
80.7
82.4
81.8
80.8
82.1
82.5
-
2.8
-1.0
-2.6
0.1
-2.1
-3.0
0.2
-1.7
-2.1
-0.9
0.0
-
88.0
87.7
86.5
88.5
88.2
86.6
86.7
87.6
86.7
86.5
86.7
-
-1.5
-2.3
-4.1
-1.0
-0.9
-3.1
-1.6
-3.1
-1.8
-3.0
-1.1
-
86.2
85.7
82.4
82.7
83.9
83.7
84.1
85.4
83.5
83.4
82.7
-
-0.2
0.4
-7.0
-5.6
-3.1
-1.8
-2.5
-1.4
-3.6
-1.6
-2.2
-
90.5
92.0
91.8
90.6
91.7
92.0
92.2
91.9
91.7
90.8
90.8
-
-3.6
-0.6
0.2
0.1
-0.3
4.2
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.6
3.8
-
2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

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Jan

With the exception of Italy, consumer goods production in

Emerging countries: Consumer goods output

EU15: Consumer goods output growth

Paper & printing

Source: Oxford Economics

Consumer goods: Output

Consumer goods: Output

3 month moving average

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

3 month moving average

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

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Food, beverages & tobacco: Output

Pulp, paper & printing: Output

3 month moving average

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: Haver Analytics

Textiles: Output growth

Textiles: New orders

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: StaBu / ISTAT

Textiles & clothing: Output growth

Textiles & clothing: Output growth

Source: Haver Analytics

Source: Haver Analytics

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Pulp & paper: Output

Textiles & Clothing: Prices

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Pulp, paper & printing: Prices

Food, beverages & tobacco: Prices

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Industry Output - Consumer Goods

Value Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted

Index % change Index

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