11/6/2016

World disorder - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

World disorder
M UN IR A KRA M P UBLISHE D Feb 07, 2016 06:49am

The writer is a former Pakistan

ambassador to the UN.

HENRY Kissingers last book World Order could more aptly

have been entitled World Disorder. As he observes, there
has never been a world order. Today, in a globalised
world, as disparate civilisations meet in the midst of a
historic transition from Western domination to
multipolarity, constructing a world order has become an
existential compulsion. However, the challenges in the
way of achieving this are complex and daunting.

Asian drama
The most significant evolution under way is the multifaceted
relationship between a powerful yet anxious America and a
rising China. The Greek historian, Thucydides, posited the
inevitability of conflict between a ruling and a rising power.
Kissinger lists 15 such instances in history of which 10 led to
conflict.
Hopefully, given the significant interdependence between
the US and China and their convergence of interest on
myriad regional and global issues, such as climate change
http://www.dawn.com/news/print/1237892
and sustainable development, they will be able to avoid the

1/6

11/6/2016

World disorder - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

and sustainable development, they will be able to avoid the

Thucydides trap.
However, the points of friction and rivalry are growing: the
US-led alliances around Chinas periphery; US intervention
in Chinas maritime disputes; the emerging Sino-US naval
rivalry; competing trade pacts and development institutions.
The muscular rhetoric of US Republican candidates is
matched by a Beijing leadership which is no longer willing to
hide Chinas strength or tolerate challenges to its vital
interests. A Cold War looms over Asia.
Russian reassertion
This Asian Cold War may well be accompanied by a revived
one in Europe.
The Western- engineered ouster of the pro-Russian
Ukrainian regime crossed Putins red line. Moscows
response, including the takeover of Crimea and protection
of ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine, was predictable.

Today, the Muslim world needs its own version

of a Westphalian peace.
Putin is unlikely to be cowed by economic punishment.
Historically, the Russians have a high threshold for suffering.
Confrontation will yield actions like Moscows intervention
in Syria. The US will quadruple military spending in Europe
and deploy a full brigade on Russias borders, provoking
Moscow without changing the military balance. Unless the
more measured approach of German and French leaders
avoids a mutually debilitating confrontation, tensions could
lead to a conflict by accident or miscalculation.
http://www.dawn.com/news/print/1237892

2/6

11/6/2016

World disorder - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

European disarray
Apart from the confrontation with Russia, Europe faces
economic stagnation; massive migration and political
division.
After almost a decade, Europe remains mired in economic
stagnation. The common currency, which was supposed to
integrate Europe into a robust economic area, has instead
constrained the ability of its weaker economies to revive
growth. Greece may yet be forced to leave the eurozone. The
economic recession, the failure to integrate minorities and
the large Muslim influx have led to the sharp rise of racial
discrimination and neo-fascist parties in Europe. The schism
between West and East Europe has become more visible.
Resistance is growing to European institutions, and to the
very idea of the European Union. Britain will shortly hold a
referendum whether to stay in the EU.
Many Europeans see economic salvation in a closer
relationship with China. Inevitably, this will require
normalisation with Russia and weaken the transatlantic ties
with the US. Europes strategic role is no longer clear.
Muslim chaos
The numerous internal and inter-state conflicts raging
across the Muslim world today signify the final collapse of
the Wests colonial legacy. Within the Muslim world, the
forces of the status quo, of the modernisers, and Islamists
are vying for supremacy. The most extreme among them
seek to impose their vision by force and violence. Each of
these three competing forces often overlap and are
themselves divided into factions and subgroups.
The past and on-going involvement of foreign powers has
intensified, complicated and prolonged the internal
http://www.dawn.com/news/print/1237892

3/6

11/6/2016

World
disorder
- Newspaper - DAWN.COM
intensified, complicated
and
prolonged
the internal
struggles within Islamic countries.

The revival of the geopolitical rivalry between Shia Iran, and

its allies, and Sunni Saudi Arabia, its Arab allies and other
Sunni powers, like Turkey, has intensified Muslim conflicts
militarily and strengthened ideologically motivated groups
on both sides.
In many ways, Islams wars today resemble the Thirty Years
War in 17th-century Europe. That war was ended by the
negotiated Peace of Westphalia, constructed through a
balance of European powers and agreement to allow each
power to impose its own religious order within its territory.
Today, the Muslim world needs its own version of a
Westphalian peace which accommodates the essential
interests of the major Islamic states and builds a new postcolonial regional security order within the Muslim world.
Reliance on external powers will not produce sustainable
peace in the Islamic world.
Modern complexities
Solutions to the worlds concurrent conflicts are made more
difficult by the nature of modern combat. Today, the military
capabilities of the major and some minor powers are
enormous. Since this makes direct conflict between these
powers unthinkable, most conflicts now are a combination
of conventional, clandestine and irregular warfare. The
calculus of military strength and the determination of
victory or defeat is more complex. It is impossible to reach
political settlements when the warring parties are unclear if
and when they are winning or losing.
Most of the conflicts around the world, domestic and interstate, are the direct or indirect consequence of either
injustice or poverty. Despite the United Nations Charter and
numerous international prescriptions, injustice against the

http://www.dawn.com/news/print/1237892

4/6

11/6/2016

World disorder - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

numerous international prescriptions, injustice against the

weak remains the global norm. An effective and impartial
mechanism to ensure the just resolution of disputes is a
critical prerequisite for the settlement of current and future
conflicts.
The technology and capital are now available to end world
poverty and remove the most pervasive cause of conflict.
Unfortunately, greed stands in the way. The world is more
unequal today than ever before in history. Half of the worlds
wealth is owned by 1pc of its population.
Constructing a world order, and preventing global chaos, will
not prove possible unless the major powers can be persuaded
to fully support and facilitate the endeavours of the United
Nations and other impartial mechanisms to address and
overcome the enormous challenges to security and
development.
The next UN secretary general must lead the way in
addressing these challenges.
The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.
Published in Dawn, February 7th, 2016

TODAY ON IMAGES
OOOO

Rumour: Fawad
Khan had an
o er to work
with Big B!

http://www.dawn.com/news/print/1237892

The Sindhi
language has a
Baghdadi
connection, but it
needs more
research
5/6

11/6/2016

http://www.dawn.com/news/print/1237892

World disorder - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

6/6