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Rating
Target
:
:
Hold
| 79
Target Period
Potential Upside
:
:
12 months
5%
Whats changed?
Target
Unchanged
EPS FY17E
Unchanged
EPS FY18E
Rating
Unchanged
Changed from Buy to Hold
Quarterly performance
Q4FY16
Revenue
9333
8240
13
8952
EBITDA
1913
1962
(3)
2095
(9)
EBITDA (%)
PAT
20
24
(331)
23
(291)
356
(13)
2884
260
37
Key financials
| Crore
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Net Sales
EBITDA
34366.9
6940.5
37480.2
9031.2
39642.3
8284.1
41154.6
8617.2
Net Profit
167.8
832.5
1244.1
1371.2
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
13.3
Valuation summary
P/E
| 75
116.0
21.8
19.0
EV / EBITDA
8.0
5.6
6.1
5.7
P/BV
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
RoNW (%)
1.3
6.6
6.9
8.9
RoCE (%)
10.4
14.7
12.6
13.1
Stock data
Particular
Amount
19473.3
40274.0
1210.0
58537.3
89.7/55.6
270.48
Face value
| 1.0
Price performance
1M
3M
6M
12M
Tata Power
(14.3)
(12.9)
(14.9)
(28.2)
NTPC
(11.8)
(8.9)
(8.0)
(12.0)
CESC
(9.7)
(16.8)
(24.0)
(34.6)
Tata Power Renewable Energy (TREPL) has entered into a 100% share
purchase agreement with Welspun Renewables to acquire the latters
1140 MW of renewable energy portfolio. Enterprise value (EV) of the deal
works out to | 9250 crore or | 8.1 crore/MW. With the said acquisition
TPREL would become the largest renewable energy company in India
with ~2300 MW of renewable capacity post acquisition. Also, the
consolidated portfolio of Tata Power would cross the 10000 MW mark.
The acquisition is sync with the group philosophy of renewable portfolio
being 30-40% of overall generation portfolio as this deal would inch the
same metric to 28%. In our view, valuations appear on the higher side.
EV/MW of | 8.1 crore/MW is higher than current replacement costs of | 6
crore/MW despite the fact the acquisition brings in quality operational
assets, which have long term PPAs coupled with remunerative tariffs &
associated infrastructure (land & T&D evacuation infra).
Key highlights of acquisitions
The transaction will be closed in two months within which all the
1140 MW of assets will be operationalised
Out of 1140 MW of assets, almost 88% or 994 MW is solar based
capacity while remainder 146 MW is wind based capacity
The weighted average capital costs of the projects range between
| 7 and | 8 crore/MW. Similarly, weighted average feed in tariff of
solar based projects works out to | 8/Kwhr while for wind the
same works out to | 6/Kwhr
The deal also includes extra land in upwards of 500 acres coupled
with ready T&D evacuation infrastructure, which will help future
expansion for TPREL at lower capital costs
All assets have long term PPA (25 years) in place while the assets
have a strong operating track record
Post acquisition, TPREL will have 2344 MW of assets, which will
include 1794 MW of operational assets and 540 MW of projects
under development
About 710 MW or 63% of total assets are housed in four states
like Tamil Nadu (300 MW), Andhra Pradesh (130 MW), Karnataka
(134 MW) and MP (150 MW)
The debt of the operational assets is spread over 15-16 years
Acquisition to increase consolidated debt equity ratio
As per the management, | 5500 crore of debt will be transferred from
WPREL while the remainder | 3750 crore funding will be met from short
to medium term debt instruments. Hence, on an overall basis,
consolidated debt will increase by | 9250 crore to | 49000 crore post the
closure of the deal. The debt equity ratio will move up from 2.2x as of
FY16 to 2.8x post acquisition.
Research Analyst
Chirag Shah
shah.chirag@icicisecurities.com
The higher tariff of | 8/Kwhr is backed by long term PPAs agreed by the
discoms. However, the evolving stage of the solar power industry in India
and consequent lowering of tariffs (current competitive bid coming in at
| 5-5.5/Kwhr) and capital costs (| 6 crore/MW) may pose a risk of back
downs from discoms while buying expensive power.
Operational assets
Gross block
PLF
Generation
EV
Debt
Debt transferred from WPRL
Raised by TPREL in form of equity
Equity infused
Tariff
Revenue
Less: O&M
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
EBT
Tax
PAT
Equity infused
RoE
Unit
MW
Basis
FY17E
1140
9120
20%
199.7
9250
|8 crore/MW
%
Crore units
| crore
| crore
| crore
| crore
5500
2350
7850
| crore
1400
|/Kwhr
| crore
| crore
| crore
| crore
| crore
| crore
| crore
MAT Rate
| crore
7.5
1498.0
114.0
1384.0
364.8
1019.2
745.8
273.4
54.7
218.7
| crore
| 0.1 cr/MW
9.5% p.a.
20%
1400
15.6%
Page 2
Capacity (MW)
130
44
50
134
73
150
38
71
300
3
994
Wind Power
Rajasthan
Total
146
146
Grand Total
1140
Solar
16%
Wind
46%
Solar
49%
Wind
75%
Page 3
Capacity
1927 MW
81 MW
Value No of shares
| crore
(|crore)
Value per
share (|) Valuation Methodology
Operational
Operational
Operational
7264
83
722
270.5
270.5
270.5
Operational
Operational
Operational
1177
155
108
270.5
270.5
270.5
2458
899
300
270.5
270.5
270.5
Jojobera existing
IEL
Jojobera expansion
200 MW
Merchant+
20MW PPA
428 MW
120 MW
120 MW
Maithon
Wind Energy
Solar
1050 MW
375 MW
30 MW
Operational
Operational
Operational
100 MW
50 MW in FY13
300
270.5
Operational
Operational
Operational
5
16
129
270.5
270.5
270.5
NDPL
Tala Transmission
Power Trading
4000 MW
Dagachu HEP
126 MW
3086
270.5
5.2
270.5
78.1
270.5
Other business
NELCO
SED
Tata BP Solar
2.6
362.4
270.5
266.96
270.5
1.0 2x investments
84.9
270.5
0.3
234.9
270.5
0.5
5.0
79
Page 4
Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Total operating Income
Growth (%)
Raw Material Expenses
Coal processing Chgs
Cost of Power purchased
Royalty towards coal mining
Other expenses
Total Operating Expenditure
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income+ excep.
PBT
Others
Total Tax
PAT
Growth (%)
EPS (|)
| Crore
FY15
34,367
(3.6)
9,261.0
2,162.7
7,383.1
1,034.7
7,584.9
27,426.4
6,940
(9.9)
2,174.2
3,699.3
416.7
1,483.7
(289.4)
1,074.9
168
164.8
0.6
FY16
37,480
0.0
8,268.3
2,036.8
9,256.7
939.1
7,948.1
28,449.1
9,031
30.1
2,376.4
3,476.5
79.0
3,257.2
(256.0)
2,168.7
832
433.0
3.1
FY17E
39,642
0.0
10,200.7
2,114.4
9,719.6
939.1
8,384.4
31,358.2
8,284
(8.3)
2,448.2
3,572.6
200.0
2,463.3
(350.0)
869.3
1,244
14.5
4.6
FY18E
41,155
0.0
10,531.1
2,189.0
10,205.5
967.3
8,644.4
32,537.4
8,617
4.0
2,435.6
3,706.7
200.0
2,674.9
(100.0)
1,203.7
1,371
42.7
5.1
| Crore
FY15
1,483.7
2,174.2
(1,460.3)
579.1
(808.5)
5,981
(60.9)
(3,493.6)
0.0
(3,875)
(25.5)
(171.0)
(512.1)
0.0
(3,620.3)
(2,160)
(53.8)
1,555.0
1,501
FY16
3,257.2
2,376.4
(619.1)
803.1
(2,168.7)
6,502
0.0
(2,500.0)
1.0
(1,850)
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
30.6
(5,028)
(376.0)
1,501.3
1,125
FY17E
2,463.3
2,448.2
(1,976.2)
128.1
(869.3)
1,699
0.0
(2,500.0)
2.0
(2,000)
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
32.1
808
507.0
1,125.2
1,632
FY18E
2,674.9
2,435.6
(1,129.5)
(222.0)
(1,203.7)
3,850
0.0
(2,500.0)
3.0
(2,500)
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
33.7
(506)
844.6
1,632.2
2,477
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
0.6
8.7
46.4
2.3
5.5
3.1
11.9
50.4
3.3
4.2
4.6
13.7
55.2
4.3
6.0
5.1
14.1
60.6
5.3
9.2
20.2
4.3
1.2
72.7
59.1
55.6
24.1
8.7
2.9
97.5
55.0
58.0
20.9
6.2
3.3
97.5
57.0
56.0
20.9
6.5
3.6
100.0
60.0
52.0
1.3
10.4
10.7
6.6
14.7
15.1
6.9
12.6
13.1
8.9
13.1
13.8
120.9
8.1
1.7
0.6
1.6
22.7
5.7
1.4
0.6
1.5
19.8
6.2
1.3
0.5
1.4
13.9
5.8
1.2
0.5
1.2
5.4
3.0
1.4
0.1
3.6
2.4
1.2
0.1
4.0
2.2
1.4
0.1
3.8
2.0
1.5
0.1
Balance sheet
| Crore
(Year-end March)
Liabilities
Equity Capital
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds
Total Debt
Others
Minority Interest / Others
Total Liabilities
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
270.5
12,271.6
12,542.1
37,204.9
4,678.2
2,492.6
56,918
270.5
13,360.5
13,630.9
32,146.1
4,708.8
2,991.1
53,477
270.5
14,654.5
14,925.0
32,921.9
4,740.9
3,589.3
56,177
270.5
16,125.7
16,396.2
32,382.3
4,774.6
4,307.2
57,860
Assets
Gross Block
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
Goodwill on consolidation
Investments
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Other Current Assets
Cash
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Total Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Others Assets
Application of Funds
55,306.4
17,558.3
37,748.1
3,650.5
41,398.6
6,991.0
3,338.1
1,844.2
5,564.0
5,345.8
9,460.3
1,500.9
23,715.1
5,235.4
11,597.8
1,691.9
18,525.1
5,190.1
0.0
56,918
57,806.4
19,934.7
37,871.8
2,500.0
40,371.8
6,991.0
3,838.1
2,207.8
5,647.7
5,622.0
9,355.9
1,125.2
23,958.7
6,038.5
13,867.7
1,776.4
21,682.6
2,276.1
0.0
53,477
60,306.4
22,382.8
37,923.6
1,500.0
39,423.6
6,991.0
4,338.1
2,723.8
6,190.7
6,739.2
9,155.9
1,632.2
26,441.8
6,166.6
12,685.5
1,865.3
20,717.4
5,724.4
0.0
56,177
62,806.4
24,818.4
37,988.0
1,000.0
38,988.0
6,991.0
4,838.1
2,885.2
6,765.1
7,407.8
8,880.9
2,476.8
28,415.8
5,944.6
13,169.5
1,958.5
21,072.6
7,343.3
0.0
57,860
Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV
DPS
Cash Per Share
Operating Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin
PBT / Total Operating income
PAT Margin
Inventory days
Debtor days
Creditor days
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios (x)
P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Net Sales
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
Solvency Ratios
Debt/EBITDA
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Page 5
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 6
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Chirag Shah PGDBM research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Page 7