FINANCIAL MODEL OF Mughal Iron and Steel In

and Steel Industries Ltd.

Equity Valuation - Financial Model

FISCAL YEAR
AS AT

NON CURRENT ASSETS

Property, plant and equipment
Long-term investments
Long-term loan to employees - secured
Long-term deposits snd loans
Deffered tax asset

Total Non Current Assets

CURRENT ASSETS
Stores, spares parts and loose tools
Stock-in-trade
Trade debts - unsecured
Advances
Short-term deposits and prepayments
Refunds due from the Government
Other receivables
Short-term investment
Cash and bank balances

Total Current Assets

Total Assets
EQUITY
Authorised share capital
Issued, subscribed and paid-up capital
Capital reserve
Equity portion of sponsor shareholders' loan
Deficit on remeasurement of available for sale investments to fair value
Revenue reserve
Shareholders' Equity

LIABILITIES

NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Long-term financing
Long term loans from related parties
Deferred liabilities

Total non-current liabilities

CURRENT LIABILITY
Trade and other payables
Accrued profit / interest / mark-up
Short-term borrowings - secured
Current maturity of long-term liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Total Liabilities & Equity

Operating Current Asset

Operating current liabilities

Balance sheet
2013
30-Jun-13

2014
30-Jun-14

2015
30-Jun-15

PKR. '000

PKR. '000

PKR. '000

2,423,557,366
431,000
-17,423,312
3,095,976
2,444,507,654

2,865,374,803
-824,535
18,183,313
-2,884,382,651

3,285,942,164
-1,751,620
18,258,313
-3,305,952,097

140,461,702
472,975,469
230,560,623
73,039,104
8,528,561
490,060,039
4,931,498
-103,953,771

189,241,050
2,683,315,636
321,049,463
294,549,694
8,832,069
569,897,941
5,106,976
-117,345,747

241,284,628
4,812,364,304
473,242,896
335,953,875
453,297,727
868,227,607
4,361,925
524,620,436
450,323,976

1,524,510,767

4,189,338,576

8,163,677,374

3,969,018,421

7,073,721,227

11,469,629,471

1,500,000,000
1,500,000,000
820,411,530 ###
---476,707,943
(569,000)
-128,667,062
505,906,156
948,509,592
1,803,025,629

1,500,000,000
1,093,911,530
603,500,176
717,344,149
-1,226,788,543
3,641,544,398

162,396,104
1,322,254,092
15,579,684

1,612,401,800
-39,968,644

950,936,943
-65,221,192

1,500,229,880

1,652,370,444

1,016,158,135

265,530,404
28,062,301
1,070,950,036
155,736,208
1,520,278,949

586,300,571
40,512,933
2,802,741,491
188,770,159
3,618,325,154

4,582,879,886
43,222,437
2,046,402,710
139,421,905
6,811,926,938

3,020,508,829

5,270,695,598

7,828,085,073

3,969,018,421

7,073,721,227

11,469,629,471

312,128,288
265,530,404

624,431,226
586,300,571

1,787,114,934
4,582,879,886

2016

2017

2018

2019

PKR. '000

PKR. '000

PKR. '000

PKR. '000

3,797,827
-1,288,078
18,258,313
--

3,835,806
-1,288,078
18,258,313
--

3,874,164
-1,288,078
18,258,313
--

3,912,905
-1,288,078
18,258,313
--

23,344,218

23,382,196

23,420,554

23,459,296

190,329,127
7,710,512,106
748,674,326
234,514,224
156,886,119
642,728,529
4,361,925
31,477,226
223,874,498

190,329,127
13,045,420,825
1,345,349,510
234,514,224
156,886,119
642,728,529
4,361,925
2,203,406
223,874,498

190,329,127
23,263,096,144
2,340,159,376
234,514,224
156,886,119
642,728,529
4,361,925
165,255
223,874,498

190,329,127
40,459,808,745
4,065,987,507
234,514,224
156,886,119
642,728,529
4,361,925
13,220
223,874,498

9,943,358,080

15,845,668,163

27,056,115,198

45,978,503,895

15,131,341,107

21,505,325,489

33,414,654,144

53,213,992,904

1,500,000,000
1,093,911,530
603,500,176
717,344,149
-620,453,920
3,035,209,775

1,500,000,000
1,093,911,530
603,500,176
717,344,149
-784,382,873
3,199,138,728

1,500,000,000
1,093,911,530
603,500,176
717,344,149
-877,208,445
3,291,964,300

1,500,000,000
1,093,911,530
603,500,176
717,344,149
760,681,746
3,175,437,601

908,578,282
-40,256,507

908,578,282
-40,256,507

908,578,282
-40,256,507

908,578,282
-40,256,507

948,834,789

948,834,789

948,834,789

948,834,789

8,975,356,483
37,265,890
1,973,364,746
161,309,424
11,147,296,543

15,185,411,912
37,265,890
1,973,364,746
161,309,424
17,357,351,972

27,001,914,995
37,265,890
1,973,364,746
161,309,424
29,173,855,055

46,917,780,454
37,265,890
1,973,364,746
161,309,424
49,089,720,514

12,096,131,332

18,306,186,761

30,122,689,844

50,038,555,303

15,131,341,107

21,505,325,489

33,414,654,144

53,213,992,904

1,171,551,895
8,975,356,483

1,738,953,259
15,185,411,912

2,731,724,975
27,001,914,995

4,457,401,071
46,917,780,454

0.23897838

Balance Sheet Assum

2013

2014

Stock trade
Stock trade % of COGS

472,975,469
13.3%

2,683,315,636
51.2%

Trade Debt
Trade Debt % of Sale

230,560,623
5.9%

321,049,463
5.4%

Account Payable
Account Payable % of COGS

265,530,404
7.5%

586,300,571
11.2%

Investment
growth index

Balancing Figures (Assumed)

Short term Investments
Short term loans

---

---

nce Sheet Assumption

2015

2017

2018

4,812,364,304
43.9%

7,710,512,106
45.2%

13,045,420,825
47.2%

23,263,096,144
49.6%

473,242,896
3.9%

748,674,326
3.9%

1,345,349,510
4.0%

2,340,159,376
4.3%

4,582,879,886
41.8%

8,975,356,483
52.7%

15,185,411,912
54.9%

27,001,914,995
57.6%

31,477,226
6%

2,203,406
7%

165,255
8%

524,620,436
--

2016

2,654,000

2,654,000

###

2019

40,459,808,745
52.1%

4,065,987,507
4.5%

46,917,780,454
60.4%

13,220
8%

2,654,000

ASSET SCH
Operating asset
Free hold land
BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (0%)
ENDING VALUE

Building
BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (4%)
ENDING VALUE

Plant and machinery

BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (2.5%)
ENDING VALUE

Coal Gasification Plant

BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (2.5%)
ENDING VALUE

Power Plant
BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL

DEPRECIATION (3.5%)
ENDING VALUE

Weight Machine
BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (2.5%)
ENDING VALUE

Office equipment
BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (10%)
ENDING VALUE

Electric Equipment and Installation

BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (5%)
ENDING VALUE

Furniture and Fitting

BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (10%)
ENDING VALUE

Vehicle
BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (15%)
ENDING VALUE

Arms and Ammunition

BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (10%)
ENDING VALUE

Computer
BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (30%)
ENDING VALUE

Development of Property
BEGINNING ASSET ASSET VALUE
ADD
DISPOSAL
DEPRECIATION (20%)
ENDING VALUE
Depreciation

DEPRICIATION TRANSFERRED TO :
ADMIN.
COGS
Total Depreciation Expense
Share of admin in depriciation
Share of cost of sales in depriciation

TOTAL NBV OF OPERATING ASSETS

CAPITAL WORK IN PROGRESS
STORES HELD FOR CAPITAL EXPENDIURE
TOTAL NBV OF FIXED ASSETS (PROPERTY PLANT AND EQUIPMENT)

Capital Expenditure

ASSET SCHEDULE
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

63,325
-

63,325
-

63,325
-

63,325
-

63,325
-

63,325

63,325

63,325

63,325

63,325

40,010
1,600

38,410
27,713
2,011

64,112
7,756
2,710

69,158
8,043
3,202

73,999
8,123
3,318

38,410

64,112

69,158

73,999

78,804

630,793
1,304,170
22,436

1,912,527
152,207
49,438

2,015,296
334,504
55,534

2,294,266
346,881
68,472

2,572,675
350,349
73,806

1,912,527

2,015,296

2,294,266

2,572,675

2,849,218

27,529
688

26,841
696

26,145
660

26,841

26,145

25,485

225,114
-

217,235
-

209,350
-

245,555
-

233,278
-

12,277

8,164

7,879

7,885

7,401

233,278

225,114

217,235

209,350

201,950

86
8

78
2

76
2

74
2

72
2

78

76

74

72

70

447
320
68

699
87

715
19

662
20

613
20

71

72

69

62

699

715

662

613

571

106,810
7,670
5,402

109,078
700
5,454

104,324
142
5,203

99,263
147

94,256
149

109,078

104,324

996
63
105

5,154

4,767

99,263

94,256

89,637

954
26
98

882
2,761
200

3,443
2,863
654

5,652
2,892
863

954

882

3,443

5,652

7,681

43,157
23,987

57,884
2,243

115,747
82,140
3,556
31,334

162,996
82,961
3,591
37,807

162,996

204,559

9,260

9,018

51,109
79,209
3,429
11,142

57,884

51,109

115,747

144
111
24

231
23

208
21

187
19

168
17

231

208

187

168

151

667
318

723
4,967

5,123
744

4,182
772

3,412
779

262

567

1,685

1,541

1,270

723

5,123

4,182

3,412

2,922

28,373

22,698

17,990

30,400
-

2,027

5,675

4,708

3,634

28,373

22,698

17,990

14,356

51,442

76,873

90,123

123,040

132,947

9,653
41,750

9,187
67,687

18,774
72,037

19,469
74,702

19,663
75,449

51,403

76,874

90,811

94,171

95,113

0
1

0
1

0
1

0
1

0
1

2,417,187
6,369
66,900

2,558,657
306,714
8,254

2,917,081
396,387
-

3,025,013
411,053
361,761

3,055,263
415,164
365,379

2,490,456

2,873,625

3,313,468

3,797,827

3,835,806

460,043

530,654

578,530

133,091

2018

2019

63,325
-

63,325
-

63,325

63,325

78,804
8,205
3,515

83,494
8,287
1
3,708

83,494

88,072

2,849,218
353,853
80,878

3,122,193
357,391
1
87,860

3,122,193

3,391,725

25,485
643

24,841
1
627

24,841

24,214

201,950
-

194,811
-

7,139

6,887

194,811

187,924

70
2

68
2

68

67

571
20

533
20

58

54

533

500

89,637
150

85,253
152

4,534

4,313

85,253

81,092

7,681
2,921
1,071

9,531
2,950
1
1,261

9,531

11,219

204,559
83,791
3,627
44,235

240,488
84,629
3,664
49,810

240,488

271,643

151
15

135
14

135

122

2,922
787

2,585
795

1,124

1,024

2,585

2,356

14,356

11,456

2,900

2,314

11,456

9,142

145,470

157,245

19,860
76,204

20,059
76,966

96,064

97,024

0
1

0
1

3,085,816
419,315
369,032

3,116,674
423,509
372,723

3,874,164

3,912,905

134,422

135,766

Statement of Retaine
2013
Beginning Year Retained earning
Add Net Income
Less Dividend
Ending Year Retained Earning

127,660,961

128,667,062

2014
128,667,062
390,859,859
505,906,156

Assumption
Dividend Payout Ratio %

0%

0%

ment of Retained Earnings

2015
505,906,156
721,361,469
36,068,073
1,226,788,543

2016
1,226,788,543
1,015,571,167
121,868,540

2017
620,453,920
3,022,352,133
423,129,299

2018
784,382,873
4,288,718,459
643,307,769

2019
877,208,445
6,966,807,389
1,254,025,330

620,453,920

784,382,873

877,208,445

760,681,746

Assumption
5%

12%

14%

15%

18%

Finance lease a
Lease Amortisation
Year
Principal Outstanding
Principal Payment
Interest payment
Loan Payment
% of Interest

2013

2014

As Company does not

ease amortisation
isation(Fianace Lease)
2015

2016

2017

2018

mpany does not possess any finance lease dealing

n
ease)

dealing

2019

MUGHAL IRON AND S

INCOME S
fiscal year
year ended

Net sales
Less Cost of Goods Sold

Gross profit
Distribution cost
Administrative expenses
Other operating expenses

2013
30-Jun-13
PKR
3,928,513,675
3,553,973,719
374,539,956
19,396,763
77,675,389
6,161,494

Total expences
Other operating income

103,233,646
5,529,415

Operating Profit(EBIT)

276,835,725

Finance cost

Profit Before Taxation

Taxation

Profit After Taxation

Number of Shares outstanding at the end of the yea

Earnings per share

152,270,740
124,564,985
(3,095,976)
127,660,961

74,027,919
1.72

efficency CGS %
Other Income %
Semi Annually data year 2015-16 in 1000
Sales
COGS
GP
Distribution cost

90%
4.33%
31-Dec-14
5549637
4966336
583301
23560

Administrative expenses
Other operating expenses
Total Expenses

72336
16401
112297

Other Income

2515

EBIT
Finance Cost
EBT
Tax
PAT
Basic EPS

473519
252654
220865
24794
196071
2.5

HAL IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRIES LTD

INCOME STATEMENT
2014
30-Jun-14

2015
30-Jun-15

PKR
5,972,672,692
5,244,696,135
727,976,557

PKR
12,241,271,852
10,957,165,760
1,284,106,092

11,488,863
79,142,164
25,778,602

61,846,577
116,837,977
45,187,562

116,409,629
3,663,214

223,872,116
14,776,079

615,230,142
217,599,894
397,630,248
6,770,389
390,859,859

1,075,010,055
350,032,256
724,977,799
3,616,330
721,361,469

82,014,153
4.77

88,878,653
8.12

88%
0.94%

90%
2.05%

31-Dec-15
9868462
8816035
1052427
45677

% of 2014

2016

2017
30-Jun

30-Jun

PKR
19,346,450,747
17044557610
2,301,893,137

PKR
33,331,831,551
27648800521
5,683,031,030

106,405,479
274,510,105
61,753,262

183,325,074
466,645,642
106,661,861

442,668,846
29,552,158

756,632,576
2,955,216

1,888,776,448
350,032,256

4,929,353,670
350,032,256

1,538,744,192

4,579,321,414

523,173,025

1,556,969,281

1,015,571,167

3,022,352,133

88,878,653
11.4

88,878,653
34.0

% of 2015
78%

89.49%
10.51%

89.34%
10.66%

0.42%

0.46%

106224
37574
189475

1.30%
0.30%
2.02%

28528
891480
262854
628626
146642
481984
3.8

1.08%
0.38%
1.92%
%

8.53%
4.55%
3.98%
11.23%
3.53%

9.03%
2.66%
6.37%
23.33%
4.88%

1.8741797082

2018
30-Jun

2019
30-Jun

PKR
PKR
55,008,382,981
90,593,496,744
46911897682
77631252892
8,096,485,299 12,962,243,852
302,546,106
770,117,362
176,026,826
1,248,690,294
295,522

498,264,232
1,268,308,954
289,899,190
2,056,472,376
29,552

6,848,090,527 10,905,801,028
350,032,256

350,032,256

6,498,058,271 10,555,768,772
2,209,339,812

3,588,961,382

4,288,718,459

6,966,807,389

88,878,653
48.3

88,878,653
78.4

193499.25490196
386998.50980392

3.391540551

INCOME STATEMENT Ass

Distribution cost
Distribution cost % of sale

2013
19,396,763
0.49%

2014
11,488,863
0.19%

Administration Expense
Administration Expense % of sale

77,675,389
2.0%

79,142,164
1.3%

6,161,494
0.16%

25,778,602
0.43%

127,660,961
0%

390,859,859
0%

Other Expenses
Other Expenses % of sale
Profit After Tax
Dividend Payout Ratio %

Dividend Paid
Unappropriated Profit (Profit Retention)

MUGHAL's existing 9MW captive power plant is based

STATEMENT Assumption
2015
61,846,577
0.51%

2016
106,405,479
0.55%

2017
183,325,074
0.55%

2018
302,546,106
0.55%

116,837,977
1.0%

274,510,105
1.4%

466,645,642
1.4%

770,117,362
1.4%

45,187,562
0.37%

61,753,262
0.32%

106,661,861
0.32%

176,026,826
0.32%

721,361,469
5%

1,015,571,167
12%

3,022,352,133
14%

4,288,718,459
15%

423,129,299
2,599,222,835

643,307,769
3,645,410,690

121,868,540
893,702,627

W captive power plant is based on gas, with SNGP as the supplier. Given the prevalent gas curtailment on SNGP

2019
498,264,232
0.55%

1,268,308,954
1.4%

289,899,190
0.32%
6,966,807,389
18%

1,254,025,330
5,712,782,059

he prevalent gas curtailment on SNGP's network, the supply of gas is under threat. To counter the issues of pow

o counter the issues of power supply and to ensure uninterrupted supply of electricity around the clock, the man

round the clock, the management has recently announced to set up a 55MW coal fired power plant which will c

power plant which will completely meet the power re quirements of the company. The management also alleg

e management also alleges that power supply from the coal power plant will be cheaper, although we doubt tha

er, although we doubt that there will be any significant cost savings, given that MUGHALs existing captive powe

Ls existing captive power plant

COST
FISCAL YEAR ENDED

Cost of goods manufactured and sold:

Raw Material Consumed
Packing materials consumed
Cement packaging and loading charges
Salaries, wages and benefits
Electricity and water
Fuel
Stores and spares consumed
Repairs and maintenance
Insurance
Security Expense
Depreciation
Other Expenses

Add: Opening work-in-process

Less: Closing work-in-process

Add: Opening stock of finished goods

Less: Closing stock of finished goods

COST OF GOOD SOLD

2013
30-Jun
PKR. `000

2014
30-Jun
PKR. `000

2015
30-Jun
PKR. `000

2016
30-Jun
PKR. `000

2,770,631,368
73,588,437
452,914,489
199,650,384
2,749,875
41,750,506
18,330,730
3,559,615,789

4,158,556,293
138,794,400
804,133,990
537,042,306
1,450,160
65,093,296
33,890,682
5,738,961,127

8,440,578,903
287,726,672
1,165,479,709
783,027,839
6,403,886
72,037,446
48,932,040
10,804,186,495

14,130,351,727
463,239,942
1,532,083,753
1,301,777,551
3,534,640
79,241,191
33,717,817
17,543,946,620

0
0
3,559,615,789

0
0
5,738,961,127

0
0
10,804,186,495

0
0
17,543,946,620

48020147
53662217
3,553,973,719

53662217
547927209
5,244,696,135

547927209
381047176
10,971,066,528

381047176
880436186.275347
17,044,557,610

2017
30-Jun
PKR. `000

2018
30-Jun
PKR. `000

2019
30-Jun
PKR. `000

23,689,252,063
745,816,306
2,068,313,066
2,098,483,227
3,534,640
7,681
33,717,817
28,639,124,801

40,016,112,001
1,200,764,253
2,812,905,770
3,408,440,397
3,534,640
9,531
33,717,817
47,475,484,410

68,115,177,428
1,933,230,448
3,938,068,078
5,578,678,927
3,534,640
11,219
33,717,817
79,602,418,558

0
0
28,639,124,801

0
0
47,475,484,410

0
0
79,602,418,558

880436186.27535 1870760466.2284 2434347194.2406

1870760466.2284 2434347194.2406 4405512859.8999
27,648,800,521
46,911,897,682
77,631,252,892

Fiscal Year Ended

Steel PRODUCTION (IN MetricTONNES)

CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Steel sale in Metric tons
Sales Growth

Raw materials consumed

Raw materials consumed per ton of steel production

PKR
Ton

Packing Material consumed

Packing material consumed per ton of cement production

PKR
Ton

Cement packaging and loading charges

CP&LC per ton of cement sales
Price Increase

PKR
PKR

Salaries, wages and benefits

Growth

Fuel & Power

Price Changes
World Crude oil Price forecast ($/barrel)
Electricity and water
Growth
Power consumption charges per ton

Stores and spares consumed

S&SC per ton of steel production

Repairs and maintainence

Insurance

Security expenses

Other Expenses
Distribution Costs
As a % of Net Sales
Administrative Expenses
Percentage of net sale
Add: Opening work-in-process
Less: Closing work-in-process
Closing work in process % of Sales
Add: Opening stock of finished goods
Less: Closing stock of finished goods
Closing finished % of Sales

Melting
Rerolling

COGS ASSUM
2013

2014

2015

2016
Estimated

56291
0.07
56288

159505
0.16
159503
183.4%

239786
0.23
239787
50.3%

383658
0.60
380658
58.7%

2,770,631,368
49220

4,158,556,293
26072

8,440,578,903
35200

14,130,351,727
36831

0
0.0

0
0.0
0%

0
0.0
0%

0
0.0
0%

73,588,437
61%

138,794,400
89%

287,726,672
107%

463,239,942
61%

452914489.0

804133990.0
78%

1165479709.0
45%
95.5

1532083752.7
31%
45.0

0.0

0.0%
0.0

0.0%
0.0

0%
0.0

199650384
3546.8

537042306
3366.9

783027839
3265.5

1301777551
3393.1

2749875.0

1450160.0

6403886.0

3534640.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

18,330,730
19,396,763
0.49%

33,890,682

48,932,040

33,717,817

11,488,863
0.19%

61,846,577
0.51%

106,405,479
0.55%

77,675,389
1.98%
0.000%

79,142,164
1.33%
###
###
0.000%

116,837,977
0.95%
0.000%

274,510,105
1.42%
0.000%

48,020,147
53,662,217
1.4%

53,662,217
547,927,209
9.2%

547,927,209
381,047,176
3.11%

381,047,176
880,436,186
4.6%

OGS ASSUMPTION
2017
Estimated

2018
Estimated

2019
Estimated

618456
0.61
618400
62.5%

1004521
0.62
984521
59.2%

1644125
0.64
1544201
56.8%

23,689,252,063
38304

40,016,112,001
39836

68,115,177,428
41429
Reroling

Capacity utilization

0
0.0
0%

0
0.0
0%

0
0.0
0%

745,816,306
61%

1,200,764,253
61%

1,933,230,448
61%

2068313066.1
35%
60.0

2812905769.9
36%
70.0

3938068077.9
40%
80.0

0%
0.0

0%
0.0

0%
0.0

2098483227
3393.1

3408440397
3393.1

5578678927
3393.1

Melting
Reroling

3534640.0

3534640.0

3534640.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

33,717,817

###

33,717,817

183,325,074
0.55%

302,546,106
0.55%

498,264,232
0.55%

466,645,642
2.28%
0.00%

770,117,362
2.28%
0.00%

1,268,308,954
2.28%
0.00%

880,436,186
1,870,760,466
5.6%

1,870,760,466
2,434,347,194
4.4%

2,434,347,194
4,405,512,860
4.9% (Average)

Avg per ton price

2013
Melting
78,000
Reroling
675,000
Total
753,000
Capacity utilization
0.07

Melting
Reroling
Total

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Installed Capacity
2014
294,000
675,000
969,000
0.16

2015
366,000
688,000
1,054,000
0.23

Actual Production
2013
2014
19,845
46,732
36,443
112,771
56,288
159,503

2015
59,557
180,230
239,787

#DIV/0!

1
2
3

Fiscal year ended

5 NET SALES
6
Gross Local Sales
7
Commision
8
Net Local Sale
9
Export Sales
10
Sales(Net local Sale+Export Sale)
11
Sales Tax
12
Federal Excise Duty
4

RE
2013
1,627,142,623
1,627,142,623
2,419,068,994
4,046,211,617
117,697,942
-

13
14 Net Sales
15
16
17
18
19

3,928,513,675

7.23%

D
1
2
3
4

REVENUE
2014

2015

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

3,749,086,260
3,749,086,260
2,249,634,495
5,998,720,755
26,048,063
-

10,622,384,143
10,622,384,143
1,635,896,888
12,258,281,031
17,009,179
-

5,972,672,692

12,241,271,852

2016

2017

Estimated
Estimated
21,246,235,494
36,931,784,098
21,246,235,494
36,931,784,098
2,062,741,310
3,227,049,096
23,308,976,804
40,158,833,194
3,962,526,057
6,827,001,643
###

13
14
15
16
17
18
19

0.69%

0.16%

19,346,450,747

33,331,831,551

1
2
3
4

2018

2019

Estimated
Estimated
6
61,365,889,091
101,872,205,174
7
8
61,365,889,091
101,872,205,174
9
4,909,271,127
7,276,586,084
10
66,275,160,218
109,148,791,258
11
11,266,777,237
18,555,294,514
12
5

13
14
15
16
17
18
19

55,008,382,981

90,593,496,744

REVENUE ASS
2013
in tonnes
Steel production
Gross Local Sales
Commision
Export sales
Sales (Gross Local+Exports)
Price/metricTon

in tonnes

56,288
1,627,142,623
2,419,068,994
4,046,211,617
71,884

159,503
3,749,086,260
2,249,634,495
5,998,720,755
37,609
-48%

1,627,142,623
2,419,068,994
40%
60%
0.0%

3,749,086,260
2,249,634,495
62%
38%
0.0%

2,419,068,994
0%

2,249,634,495
0%

Growth

Gross Local Sales

Export Sale
Gross Local Sales %
Export Sale %
Commission
Commission % of Gross Local Sales

2014

Sale (Local+Export)
Sale Tax %
Sale Tax

Exports
Federal Excise duty
Federal Excise duty % of Export

VENUE ASSUMPTION
2015
in tonnes

2016
in tonnes

2017
in tonnes

2018
in tonnes

239,787
10,622,384,143
1,635,896,888
12,258,281,031
51,122
36%

380,658
21,246,235,494
2,062,741,310
23,308,976,804
54,189
6%

618,400
36,931,784,098
3,227,049,096
35,856,101,066
57,982
7%

984,521
61,365,889,091
4,909,271,127
61,365,889,091
62,331
8%

10,622,384,143
1,635,896,888
87%
13%
0.0%

20,627,413,101
21,246,235,494
2,062,741,310
103%
10%
0.0%

36,931,784,098
3,227,049,096
103%
9%
0.0%

61,365,889,091
4,909,271,127
100%
8%
0.0%

23,308,976,804
17%
3,962,526,057

40,158,833,194
17%
6,827,001,643

66,275,160,218
17%
11,266,777,237

2,062,741,310
0%

3,227,049,096
0%

4,909,271,127
0%

1,635,896,888
0%

2019
in tonnes
1,544,201
101,872,205,174
7,276,586,084
103,951,229,769
67,317
8%

101,872,205,174
7,276,586,084
98%
7%
0.0%
109,148,791,258
17%
18,555,294,514

7,276,586,084
0%

Melting
Reroling
Total

Total Capacity Production 2015

366,000
59,557
688,000
180,230
1,054,000
239,787

Avg per ton price

51,122

2014
46,732
112,771
159,503

2013
19,845
36,443
56,288

37,609

71,884

DCF F

EBIT
EBIT(1-T)
Depreciation
CAPEX
Change in Working Capital
Free Cash Flow
PV of Cash flow

2013

2014

276,835,725

615,230,142

179,943,221
51,442
179,994,663

406,051,894
76,873
460,043
566,781,604
161,112,880-

FCFF Valuation
PV FCFF (2014)
Terminal Value (2019)
PV Terminal Value (2014)
Enterprise Value
PV Debt
Equity Value
No of Shares Outstanding (`000)
Price

Change in Working Capital Calculation

Total Current Asset
Total Current Liabilities
Working Capital
Change in Working Capital

14,529,411,678
60,336,120,492
31,925,780,177
46,455,191,855
46,455,191,855
88,878,653
522.7

2013
1,524,510,767
1,520,278,949
4,231,818

2014
4,189,338,576
3,618,325,154
571,013,422
566,781,604

DCF FCFF MODEL

2015

2016

2017

Forcast
1,075,010,055

2018

Forcast

1,888,776,448

Forcast

4,929,353,670

6,848,090,527

709,506,636
90,123
530,654
780,737,014
71,670,909-

1,246,592,456
123,040
578,530
(2,555,688,899)
3,801,825,865
3,347,380,241

3,253,373,422
132,947
133,091
(307,745,345)
3,561,118,623
2,760,654,740

4,519,739,748
145,470
134,422
(606,056,049)
5,125,806,844
3,498,651,774

2015

2016

2017

2018

9,943,358,080
11,147,296,543
(1,203,938,463)
(2,555,688,899)

15,845,668,163
17,357,351,972
(1,511,683,809)
(307,745,345)

27,056,115,198
29,173,855,055
(2,117,739,857)
(606,056,049)

8,163,677,374
6,811,926,938
1,351,750,436
780,737,014

2019
Forcast
10,905,801,028

7,197,828,678
157,245
135,766
(993,476,762)
8,191,326,919
4,922,724,923

2019
45,978,503,895
49,089,720,514
(3,111,216,619)
(993,476,762)

WACC
WACC
14%
Growth Rate
Growth Rate

Divi
2013
Dividends
Outstanding Shares
DPS

2014

74,027,919

2013
DPS
growth
Ke
PV of Dividends

PV of Dividends
Terminal Value
PV of Dividends
g
Ke
Price calculated

82,014,153
-

2014
0.0

0.0

28%

28%

12.7
-62.7
-18
65%
28%
-5.6

Dividend Discount model

2015
36,068,073
88,878,653
0.41

2015

2016
121,868,540
88,878,653
1.37

2016

2017
423,129,299
88,878,653
4.76

2018
643,307,769
88,878,653
7.24

2017

2018

0.4

1.4

4.8

7.2

28%

28%
1.1

28%
2.9

28%
3.5

2019
1,254,025,330
88,878,653
14.11

2019
14.1
28%
5.3

WACC C

CALCULATIN
NOPAT
Operating Current Asset
Operating Current Liabiliti
Net operating Working Capital
Operating Fixed Asset
ROIC
Retention Ratio
g (FCFF)
g (Average)

2013
179,943,221
312,128,288
265,530,404

2014
406,051,894
624,431,226
586,300,571

46,597,884
2,417,187

38,130,655
2,558,657

367.1%
100%
367.12%
182.33%

997.9%
100%
997.93%

WACC Calculation

CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MOD

Risk Free Rate
Beta
Market Risk Premium
Required Rate of Return(cost of equity)

WACC
Cost of Debt
After tax cost of debt
Cost of Equity
Weight of Debt
Weight of Equity
Tax Rate
WACC

CALCULATING FCFF GROWTH

2015
709,506,636
1,787,114,934
4,582,879,886

2016
1,246,592,456
1,171,551,895
8,975,356,483

2017
3,253,373,422
1,738,953,259
15,185,411,912

2,795,764,9522,917,081

7,803,804,5883,025,013

13,446,458,6533,055,263

-25.4%
95%
-24.13%

-16.0%
88%
-14.06%

-24.2%
86%
-20.81%

RICING MODEL
13.75%
1.18
12.0%
27.9%

C
13.75%
9.1%
27.91%
76%
24%
34.00%
13.58%

2018
4,519,739,748
2,731,724,975
27,001,914,995

2019
7,197,828,678
4,457,401,071
46,917,780,454

24,270,190,0193,085,816

42,460,379,3833,116,674

-18.6%
85%
-15.83%

-17.0%
82%
-13.90%

Rat
2013

2014

Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio
Quick Asset Ratio

Times
Times

1.314
1.2

1.342
0.8

Profitability Ratio
Gross Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Net Profit Margin

%
%
%

9.53%
7.05%
3.25%

12.19%
10.30%
6.54%

Return On Investmen
ROA
ROE

%
%

3.22%
13%

5.53%
22%

Dividend Payout Ratio

Dividend Paid
Payout Ratio
PlowBack Ratio
Sustainable Growth

0%
100%
13%

0%
100%
22%

Leverage Ratio
Debt to Equity
Debt to Asset

318%
76%

292%
75%

Activity Ratio
Inventory Turnover
Inventory in days
Recivable Turnover
Average Collection Period
Time to Interest Earned

Times
Days
Times
Days
Times

25.30

31.81

14.4
8.3
43.94
1.8

11.5
2.2
163.98
2.8

Market Ratio
EPS
DPS
Price Earning Ratio

1.7
0.0
43.5

4.8
0.0
15.7

Du Pont Analysis
Profit Margin
Total Asset Turnover
Equity Multiplier
Return on Equity

0.03
0.99
4.18
13.5%

0.07
0.84
3.92
21.7%

Valuation Ratios
EPS
DPS

1.72

4.77
0.00

Mughal
Mughal Steel Share price

75

Ratio Calculation
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Liquidity Ratio
1.465
0.9

1.251
0.6

1.175
0.5

1.109
0.3

1.063
0.3

11.90%
9.76%
5.25%

17.05%
14.79%
9.07%

14.72%
12.45%
7.80%

14.31%
12.04%
7.69%

6.71%
33.5%

14.05%
94.5%

12.83%
130.3%

13.09%
219.4%

121,868,540
12%
88%
29%

423,129,299
14%
86%
81%

643,307,769
15%
85%
111%

1,254,025,330
18%
82%
180%

399%
80%

572%
85%

915%
90%

1576%
94%

50.90

78.98

145.27

246.48

407.88

7.2
2.5
143.49
3.1

4.6
2.5
145.47
5.4

2.5
2.6
142.85
14.1

1.5
2.4
154.36
19.6

0.9
22.3
16.38
31.2

8.1
0.4
9.2

11.4
1.4
6.6

34.0
4.8
2.2

48.3
7.2
1.6

78.4
14.1
1.0

rofitability Ratio
10.49%
8.78%
5.89%

urn On Investment
6.29%
20%

dend Payout Ratio

36,068,073
5%
95%
19%

everage Ratio
215%
68%

Activity Ratio

Market Ratio

u Pont Analysis
0.06
1.07
3.15
19.8%

0.05
1.28
4.99
33.5%

0.09
1.55
6.72
94.5%

0.08
1.65
10.15
130.3%

0.08
1.70
16.76
219.4%

11.43
1.37

34.01
4.76

48.25
7.24

78.39
14.11

aluation Ratios
8.12
0.41

Mughal Market Value Of Share

growth

65%