s t a t i s t i c s

Key Oil Trends

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Oil information

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2016

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The following analysis is an excerpt from the publication Oil Information (2016 edition).
Please note that we strongly advise users to read definitions, detailed methodology and country specific notes
which can be found online under References at www.iea.org/statistics/topics/oil/
Please address your inquiries to oilaq@iea.org.
Please note that all IEA data is subject to the following Terms and Conditions found on the IEAs website:
http://www.iea.org/t&c/termsandconditions/

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EXCERPT FROM OIL INFORMATION (2016 edition) - 3

KEY OIL TRENDS

Saudi Arabia (+5.8%, 31 Mt, 636 kb/d), Iraq (+13.8%,
21 Mt, 431 kb/d) and Brazil (+7.7%, 11 Mt, 227 kb/d).

Oil production
In 2015 1 , world oil production 2 reached 4 461 Mt
(94.2 Mb/d), an increase of 3.0% on 2014 (130 Mt,
2.5 Mb/d), representing steady growth in the OECD
(+4.2%, 47 Mt, 1.1 Mb/d) and OPEC (+3.7%, 64 Mt,
1.3 Mb/d) and an average lower growth in other producing countries (+1.3%, 19 Mt, 0.4 Mb/d). In 2014,
OPEC production declined (1.0%), while the OECD
and the rest of the world showed substantial growths
(+8.4% and +1.6%, respectively).
Total world production includes crude oil, NGLs,
other hydrocarbons and 106 Mt (2.2 Mb/d) of liquid
biofuels.
Figure 1. World oil production by region
Million tonnes
200

The largest five top liquids producers increased their

share of total world production (to almost 49%), and
the United States remained the world's top producer
(620 Mt). The second top producer was Saudi Arabia
(572 Mt), followed by the Russian Federation
(533 Mt), Canada (226 Mt) and the Peoples Republic
of China (220 Mt).
In the OECD, production growth slowed down for the
first time since 2011, but was still above growth rates
seen between 1978 and 2011. Production grew by
around 4% between 2014 and 2015, against 8% between 2013 and 2014. Still, the incremental OECD
production in 2015 represented more than the entire
production of the United Kingdom.
Figure 2. Annual variation in OECD oil production

175

100

10%

150

80

8%

125

60

6%

100

40

4%

75

20

2%

50

0%

25

-20

-2%

-40

-4%

-60

-6%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015p

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015p
OECD

OPEC

Rest of the world

Million tonnes

At a country level, the growth in 2015 can be mainly

attributed to large increases in production in
the United States (+7.8%, 45 Mt, 1 027 kb/d),

1. All energy data for 2015 are provisional.

2. Please refer to the technical notes in Section I.2.

y-o-y growth - %

The United States contributed the most to the increase

in 2015, while the production of the United Kingdom
increased by almost 11% due to new field start-ups
and less outages compared to 2014. Mexicos production continued declining (7%), but it still represented
more than 10% of the total OECD production.
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Figure 3. Variation in OECD oil production

by main producing countries

Figure 5. World refinery output growth between

2013 and 2014: main refining countries
Million tonnes

Million tonnes
80

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%

60
40
20
0
-20
United Canada
States

UK

Norway Mexico Rest of

OECD

30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30

Growth 2013-2014
Growth 2014-2015p
Share over total OECD production in 2015p (right axis)

Figure 6. World refinery output growth

in comparison to oil demand between 2000 and 2014

Refining
In 2014, world refinery output, excluding liquid
biofuels components, increased by 1.2% (46 Mt,
960 kb/d), the highest annual growth since the impact
of the economic recovery during 2010.
Figure 4. World refinery output
200

8%

150

6%

100

4%

50

2%

0%

-50

-2%

-100

-4%

-150

-6%
1974

1984

1994

Million tonnes

2004

2014

y-o-y growth

Refinery output growth mainly came from worlds top

three refiners (United States, China and Russia) and
from Saudi Arabia. With an additional 16 million
tonnes (340 kb/d) of refinery production, Saudi Arabia
entered the ranking of the top 10 refining countries in
20143. The sharpest decrease in refinery output were
observed in Japan (10 Mt), Libya (6 Mt), Iraq (5 Mt)
and the United Kingdom (5 Mt).

3. In addition to refinery production, Saudi Arabia produces a large

amount of refined products in gas separation plants. This production is
not included in refinery output.

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The increases in refinery output in Asia and

Middle East reflect a strong growth in oil demand in
these regions, which has been observed since 2000. In
Africa and Non-OECD Americas, oil demand growth
is increasingly met by imports of refined products.
Figure 7. Ratio of refinery output
over oil demand 2014

EXCERPT FROM OIL INFORMATION (2016 edition) - 5

OECD refinery output rose by 2.3% in 2015, with

strong growth in OECD Europe (+5.1 %). As a result
of lower crude prices, European refiners benefited
from higher margins and refinery output in Europe
increased for the first time since 2006.
Figure 8. OECD refinery output

540 kb/d), whereas China, the worlds second crude

importer, increased its imports by an equivalent
amount.
Figure 10. Crude and NGL imports:
worlds top importers
Million tonnes
700

Million tonnes
1 200

600

1 000

500

800

400

600

300

400

200

200

100

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015p
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Americas
OECD Europe

Trade
In 2014, trade of crude oil and NGL declined (1%
from 2013) but remained more significant than trade
of products (1.85 times in mass units, 1.75 in volumes). The growth in trade of products (+1%)
outpaced trade of crude oil for the tenth consecutive
year.
Figure 9. Variation in trade of primary
and secondary oil products
Million tonnes
150

0
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
United States

China

OECD oil self-sufficiency 4 continued growing in

2015. The oil production of OECD Americas was
almost sufficient to meet the regions domestic consumption, while OECD Asia Oceania and OECD
Europe remained highly dependent on imports.
Figure 11. OECD oil self-sufficiency
(oil production as a percentage of
total oil primary energy supply)
100%
80%
60%
40%

100

20%

50
0%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015p

-50

OECD Total
OECD Americas

-100
-150

Crude and NGL

Oil products

In 2014, crude trade was marked once again by the

decline in imports for the United States, as a result of
strong production growth. The worlds top crude
importer thus decreased its imports by 26 Mt (6%,

OECD Europe
OECD Asia Oceania

OPECs share of world crude and NGL exports

declined from 57% in 2013 to 55% in 2014, as the
combined result of a decline in OPECs exports
and an increase in exports of Canada and the
United States.

4. Measured as TPES/production. Excludes marine and aviation bunkers

demand.

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6 - EXCERPT FROM OIL INFORMATION (2016 edition)

Figure 12. Crude and NGL exports:

worlds top exporters

regions, the growth in refinery production was not

enough in order to meet the growth in oil demand.

Million tonnes
400

Demand

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990

1994

1998

Saudi Arabia

2002

2006

Russia

2010

2014

Canada

Data from the world energy balance show that oil

remained the most used fuel in the world energy mix
in 2014 and its share did not decrease (31.3%). In
2014, world oil demand increased by 1.4% from 2013
(57 Mt, 1.4 Mb/d). Estimates by the IEA Secretariat
point to a 1.8% world oil demand growth in 2015.
Figure 14. Oil demand by geographical regions
Million tonnes
2 500

Russia was the top crude oil supplier to OECD

Europe, while Saudi Arabia provided 34% of Japans
crude imports and 30% of Koreas.

2 000

Figure 13. Top crude suppliers to OECD Europe by

country in 20155

1 000

1 500

500
0

Product trade statistics reflect the dynamism of the

important trading and navigation hubs such as
Singapore, the Netherlands and the United Arab
Emirates. Excluding these countries, in 2014 high
growth was observed in Africa (91 Mt, +2.5%) and
Non-OECD Americas (87 Mt, +3.0%). In these

5. This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over

any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

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Africa
Non-OECD
Europe/Eurasia
Non-OECD
Americas
Middle East
China (Region)
Asia excluding
China
OECD

In 2014, in line with previous years, oil demand

growth was driven by Non-OECD countries (+3.5%,
74 Mt, 1.7 Mb/d), while in the OECD oil demand
declined moderately (0.8%, 17 Mt, 0.3 Mb/d).
Non-OECD countries represent the largest share of
world oil demand (52% in 2014). Most of the additional oil demand came from Non-OECD Asia
(32.4 Mt, 770 kb/d). China, the worlds second largest
oil consumer, increased its consumption by 16.4 Mt
(420 kb/d), India by 7.0 Mt (150 kb/d). The high increase observed in Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia is
mainly due to ongoing efforts to improve the reporting of international marine bunkers in Russia, the
worlds fourth largest oil consumer. Oil demand in the
Middle East and in Non-OECD Americas grew by 4%
from 2013 to 2014. Saudi Arabia alone consumed an
additional 11.4 Mt (+9%, 230 kb/d) confirming its
rank as the worlds seventh largest oil consumer behind Brazil (+6.5 Mt, 4%, 130 kb/d). Africa was the
only Non-OECD region with declining demand in
2014, as a result of weak demand in Egypt (4%) and
South Africa (5%), the regions two top oil consumers, and in Nigeria (10%).

EXCERPT FROM OIL INFORMATION (2016 edition) - 7

Figure 15. Variation in world oil demand by

geographical regions6
Million tonnes

Figure 17. World demand by product groups

Million tonnes
1 600

OECD
Non-OECD

1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

Middle
Motor
LPG
Aviation Residual Other
distillates gasoline naphtha fuels
fuel oil products

In 2015, instead, OECD oil demand returned to grow

for the first time in five years (+0.7%, preliminary
data), while oil demand in Non-OECD continued
growing (2.9%, IEA Secretariat estimate).
Figure 16. Variation in OECD oil demand
Million tonnes

In the OECD, the decline in residual fuel oil demand

can be mainly explained by the decrease in its use for
power and heat and for navigation.
Figure 18. Contribution by sector to the 18 Mt OECD
fuel oil demand drop between 2013 and 2014

150
100
50

Power and
heat
48%

Marine
bunkers
36%

-50

Industry
9%

-100
-150

Refinery
fuel
7%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015p

Oil demand increased in 2014 for all products except

residual fuel oil (4%, 17 Mt, 310 kb/d), which was
driven down by a sharp drop in the OECD (18 Mt).

Figure 19. World demand by sector of oil

and other fuels in 20147
Mtoe

The largest contribution to the increase in oil demand

came from worlds most consumed fuel, gas/diesel oil
(+2%, 27 Mt, 540 kb/d). This was the case in the
OECD (+8 Mt) and the rest of the world (+19 Mt).
Similarly, the growth in world demand for aviation
fuels (+3%, 7Mt, 190 kb/d) was strong both in the
OECD (+3%) and Non-OECD (+4%).

3 500

However, the world growth in LPG/naphtha (+4%, 18 Mt,

580 kb/d) and motor gasoline demand (+2%, 16 Mt,
370 kb/d) was mainly located outside of the OECD.

6. This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over

any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

Other
fuels
Oil

3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500

7. In this chart, all liquid biofuels are included in Other fuels.

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The world energy balance shows that road transport is

by far the main oil consuming sector (1 866 Mtoe),
with other fuels still playing a very marginal role
(73 Mtoe of biofuels, 38 Mtoe of natural gas).
Figure 20. Variation in world demand in selected
sectors between 2013 and 2014
Million tonnes
-20

-10

10

20

30

Road
Aviation bunkers
Refinery fuel
Non-energy use

In the OECD, with the exception of aviation bunkers

(+2.2 Mt), demand from all other sectors continued
declining in line with trends observed from 2010,
whereas it grew in Non-OECD.
The sharpest demand drop in the OECD came from
the power sector (14.6 Mt, mainly due to Japan and
Mexico), and from residential and services (9.3 Mt,
due to a warm winter in Europe.) In both sectors, oil
demand has been gradually replaced by other fuels.
Outside the OECD, most of the demand growth in
2014 was for non-energy use, highlighting the growing importance of data on petrochemical consumption.
More than 70% of worlds 828 Mtoe of non-energy
use came from oil in 2014.

Marine bunkers
Industry
Resid., agri., services
Power and heat
OECD

Non-OECD

Figure 21. Variation in OECD road consumption

between 2013 and 2014
Million tonnes
10
Diesel

weak economy and strong efficiency gains led to lower motor gasoline demand in Japan.

Motor gasoline

LPG

6
4
2

Liquid biofuels
Global growth in liquid biofuels production was
achieved in 2014. Modest global expansion was underpinned by 1) favourable feedstock crops in key markets
such as the United States and the European Union,
2) new and increased biofuel mandates in several
countries, and 3) emerging Southeast Asian biofuel
production markets.
In the OECD, the share of liquid biofuels blending
in gas/diesel and motor gasoline remained relatively
stable.

0
-2
-4
OECD Americas

OECD Europe

Figure 22. Share of liquid biofuels

in OECD road consumption

OECD Asia
Oceania
8%

Road transport demand continued growing in 2014

both in the OECD and in the rest of the world. In the
OECD, road transport (+1%, 15.0 Mt) represented for
the first time more than half of the entire OECD oil
demand. Within OECD, the road consumption pattern
differed between regions. In 2014, road consumption
grew by 2% in OECD Americas (+11.5 Mt) and
OECD Europe (+4.8Mt), but declined in OECD Asia
(1.7 Mt, 1% from 2013). In the United States, industrial demand and lower prices stimulated the
growth in diesel consumption, whereas a relatively

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7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%

Biodiesel in gas/diesel
Biogasoline in motor gasoline
Total biofuels in gas/diesel + motorgasoline

EXCERPT FROM OIL INFORMATION (2016 edition) - 9

Figure 24. Crude oil spot market prices

Prices

US dollars/barrel

For the full year 2015 and the first quarter of 2016,
crude oil import costs fell sharply in all major IEA
member countries. Year on year, average import costs
in IEA member countries continued to show large
falls, registering a 40% drop overall. The largest decreases occurred in Japan and Korea (41%).
Figure 23. Nominal and real crude oil import costs
(IEA average)
US dollars/barrel
150

150
125
100
75
50
25
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Dubai

125

North Sea

WTI

100

By the first quarter of 2016, almost all price indices

showed remarkable decreases if compared to the same
period of 2015:

75
50
25
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Nominal

Real (2014 US dollars)

Crude oil spot prices rose steadily during the second

quarter of 2016 after reaching absolute lows since the
mid-2000s in early 2016. Despite this recovery, spot
prices for international benchmarks in June 2016 were
20 to 25% lower than the levels seen a year earlier.
Similarly, oil product spot prices increased markedly
during the second quarter of 2016, following multiyear lows seen in early 2016. Between February and
June 2016, spot prices for gasoline and diesel increased by nearly 20 USD/bbl each.

The total OECD industry index for heavy fuel oil

fell by 31%, with very large falls in Poland
(50%), Mexico (47%) and Germany (42%).
The total OECD light fuel oil real price index for
households fell by 26%, with large decreases in
Belgium and the United States (33%);
The total OECD commercial price index for
automotive diesel fell by 16%, with the sharpest
falls taking place in New Zealand and the
United States (27%);
The total OECD unleaded gasoline real price index
fell by13, with the largest decreases being recorded in Japan (18%), the United States (17%) and
the Czech Republic (12%).

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