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Safety Decision

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Dr Maria Kosseva

Department of Chemical &

Environmental Engineering, FoSE

Lecture Outline

Revise: Risk definitions

Risk Acceptance criteria: FAR, PLL and Facility Risk

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)

Cost of safety

Risk and Safety Decision Process

Reliability Terminology (reliability and availability)

Risk Assessment Process

Solving of practical problems

The process industry level of risk for a particular facility is

based on one of 2 parameters:

1) The average risk to the individual, which is FAR

Fatal Accident Rate, or Potential Loss of Life (PLL),

2) The risk of catastrophic event at the facility, use

Quantified Risk Analysis (QRA).

The Facility Risk is the total frequency of an event for

each main type of accident. For chemical/ petrochemical

industries, FR should not exceed a value of 1x10-4 per year.

The risk criteria can be expressed in 2 ways: risk per year

(annual) or facility risk (lifetime).

ALARP diagram

Unacceptable risk level

1x10-4 - 1x10-5

ALARP region or

Tolerable risk level

fatalities/year

Reduction is impractical

1x10-6

Acceptable or

Negligible risk level

fatalities/year

That the risk remains at this level

No need for detailed ALARP

The farmers principle of reducing probability of occurrence with increasing consequence is applied to define 3 zones.

(a) Identification of potential hazards,

(b) Estimation of the consequences (C) of each hazard

(c) Estimation of the probability (P) of occurrence of each

hazard

(d) Evaluation of the quantified risk and comparison with

acceptability criteria.

R = C x P = consequence x probability of occurrence

The risk can be reduced by reducing the C of the incident or

by reducing the P or frequency of its occurrence.

Well use probabilistic methods to evaluate the

frequencies of incidents, which have major safety

implications.

Cost of safety

Safety can always be improved the question is at what

point is it considered too expensive?

Value of a human life

explicit values can be placed on human life or implicit

values indicated from the actions taken.

Evaluated from the investment expected to save a single life:

Department of Transport 1998 - 902.5k

- New building codes following Ronan

Point collapse - 14M

- New building codes now take into account the possibilities of progressive

collapse and of forces from an internal explosion. The codes also require

minimum amounts of ductility and redundancy.

bottles - 5 (initially rejected)

Need:

systematic process to evaluate the hazards

together with their consequences and

frequencies.

quantifiable risk measure to provide a basis to

compare risks.

decision making processes based on objective

(but maybe not perfect) information.

This enables:

Comprehensive assessments of the risk of all types

of hazard,

Consistent decisions to be made regarding

alternative system designs,

The best use of limited financial resources,

Decisions, which can be justified and demonstrated

(to designers, managers and regulators),

decisions which can be audited.

The Alternative

Decisions will be subjective (based on opinions)

Decisions based on biased information

Inconsistent decisions based on qualitative

measures

Inefficient and perhaps ineffective use of available

finances

safety being granted only, when the regulator is satisfied by the argument

presented in a safety case.

A Safety Case is a structured argument, supported by evidence, intended to

justify that a system is acceptably safe.

CONTENTS

1. What does the safety case cover (a new site/facility, facility extension, modification)?

2. What does the site/facility, etc. look like (site layout, design, key features)?

3. What must be right and why (e.g. structural integrity, performance)?

4. How is this achieved (e.g. regulations, codes, standards and specifications)?

5. What can go wrong (faults, hazards internal and external)?

6. What prevents /mitigates against it going wrong (e.g. protection systems, redundancy,

diversity, procedures)?

7. What if it still goes wrong (risk/consequences, emergency arrangements)?

8. Are the risks As Low As Reasonably Practicable?

9. What could be done to make it safer; what areas need further work (e.g. verification,

research) and what are the limitations and uncertainties)?

10. What must be done to implement the safety case (e.g. operating limits and conditions,

procedures, maintenance, resource and training requirements)?

11. How long will the safety case be valid (e.g. full life time or shorter due to life limiting

features)?

12. What happens at the end-of-life (decommissioning principles / strategy)?

Risk Assessment

Reliability Terminology

The reliability of a component or a system, R(t),

Is defined as the probability that the component

or system remains operating from time 0 to time t,

given that it was operating at time 0.

The unreliability of a component or system, F(t),

Is defined as the probability that the component

or system has failed at least once from time 0 to

time t, given that it was operating at time 0.

R(t) + F(t) = 1

Reliability is a measure of the probability of successful

performance of the system over a period of time.

Hazard rate

or failure rate

I

II

III

Burn-in

Useful-life

Wear out

eliminated , in phase II it will remain ~constant, in phase III

components will start to wear and the hazard rate will increase.

Availability

The availability of a component or system, A(t),

Is defined as the probability that the component or

system is operating at time t, given that it was operating

at time 0.

Availability is a fraction of the total time that device or system is

able to perform its required function.

Is defined as the probability that the component or

system is not operating at time t, given that is was

operating at time 0.

A(t) + Q(t) = 1

Q(t) F(t) (unreliability of a component or system)

For non-repairable components:

Q(t) = F(t)

Failure frequencies

The failure rate of a component or system, (t),

Is defined as the probability per unit time that

the component or system experiences a failure at

time t, given that the component or system was

operating at time 0 and has survived to time t.

For all phases of operation:

Define the problem

Identify potential hazards

Determine their frequency and consequences

Quantification methods generally applicable across all

industries

Industry specific consequences

Risk is calculated

Compare alternatives and make decisions

A peer review of independent experts is essential

what is the safest option?

Risk

Expected loss defined quantitatively

Risk = Consequence x Frequency

Consequences

Fatalities / injuries / financial loss

Frequency- or probability of occurrence over a

specified period of operation

Problem 1

300 people are travelling on an underground

train. The train collides with the tunnel wall where

it passes under a river and water is entering the

tunnel:

Action A will definitely result in 100 fatalities with

a further 100 people having a 0.25 chance of

fatality

Action B will definitely result in 50 fatalities with

a further 120 people having a 0.75 chance of

fatality

Action A OR Action B?

Axioms of probability

Axiom 1.

For every event A, 0 P(A) 1.

Where P is called a probability function, and

P(A) is called the probability of the event A

Problem 2

300 people are travelling on an underground train.

The train collides with the tunnel wall where it

passes under a river and water is entering the

tunnel:

Action A will definitely result in 100 people

surviving with a further 100 people having a 0.75

chance of surviving

Action B will definitely result in 130 people

surviving with a further 120 people having a 0.25

chance of surviving.

Action A OR Action B?

Problem 3

300 people are travelling on an underground train.

The train collides with the tunnel wall where it

passes under a river and water is entering the

tunnel:

Action A will definitely result in 100 fatalities with

a further 100 people having a 0.25 chance of

fatality

Action B will definitely result in 100 people

surviving with a further 100 people having a 0.75

chance of surviving.

Action A OR Action B?

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