Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Scenario Planning:
1. Go and imagine multiple futures - say a positive, a negative, and a status quo and ask yourself what the road signs would be if each of these futures were
starting to materialize? When you map this out in your head first, then when the
road signs come you know exactly what they mean because you're prepared for
them. You can then adjust.
2. This is a way to overcome Emotional Estimation and Seeing Only Validation.
Whatever you're going to do, it's probably not going to work out exactly the way you
think it will.
Our species has dominated because we have a trait that's expressed in us a little bit
more than in other species: adaptability (From Darwin).
Exercise:
1. Imagine a future you want to create
2. Think about two other futures that may happen instead that are very different
(things went a different direction and there were surprises).
3. Ask yourself, "What would be my key indicator, half way between now and the
future, that each of these three futures were likely to come true?