Professional Documents
Culture Documents
30000
8000
28000
7800
26000
7600
7400
BSE (RHS)
Sensex
Nifty
27-Jan
22-Jan
20-Jan
22000
18-Jan
14-Jan
12-Jan
8-Jan
6-Jan
7200
Key Developments
For Q3FY16, we expect Vedanta to report a subdued performance
due to lower commodity prices. We expect EBITDA margins to
decline 1250 bps YoY and 430 bps QoQ to 19.9%
For Q3FY16E, Maruti Suzukis volumes grew ~15.5% YoY to ~3.74
lakh units led by new launches/facelifts. We expect revenues to
grow 20.8% YoY to | 15197 crore. EBITDA margins may expand 380
bps YoY to 16.5% aided by better product mix & operating leverage.
PAT is estimated to grow 74.5% YoY to | 1,400 crore
Bharti Airtel is expected to report 3.3% QoQ revenue growth as
robust voice volumes and data volume growth are likely to be offset
by a reduction in tariffs. EBITDA margins are expected at 39.3% for
Indian operations and 20.2% for African operations
Dabur is expected to post revenue of | 2233 crore (7.7% YoY
growth). The Nepal border blockade is likely to impact Real fruit
juice sales, in particular, and, overall volumes for the company.
Domestic & international businesses are likely to grow 2.2% and
22.1%, respectively. The estimated operating margin is 18.7% with
19.7% YoY earnings growth to | 339.6 crore
24000
.
4-Jan
Markets Yesterday
Domestic markets ended flat with the focus remaining firmly on the
Federal Reserve's first meeting of the year later in the day. However,
most expect no change amid increasing concerns over weaker
global growth and stressed markets
US markets tumbled as stocks came under pressure late in the
session on the heels of the Federal Reserve's first monetary policy
announcement of the new year
Todays Highlights
31-Dec
Market Outlook
Indian markets are likely to open higher on account of positive
European and Asian cues. Uncertainties related to China and crude
prices along with F&O expiry are likely to lead to volatility in the
markets.
NSE (LHS)
Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)
CY13
112,221
-73,385
Kospi
1,897
-4.7%
Germany
9,881
-7.9%
BSE
24,492
-5.2%
Nikkei
17,196
-8.6%
NSE
7,438
-5.4%
Nasdaq
4,468
-11.5%
France
4,380
-6.1%
Shanghai
2,736
-24.6%
143.8
4.2%
821.2
1.7%
184.4
0.8%
130.0
0.4%
2,751.6
0.0%
304.1
-0.3%
1,035.7
-0.5%
80.1
-0.7%
1,230.4
-1.2%
503.1
-2.2%
Power
Grid
138.3
Tata
Motors
337.1
Maruti
Indusind
Bank
Cipla
HCL Tech
ONGC
BPCL
Axis Bank
Asian
Paints
3.9%
1.3%
4,112.0
0.7%
908.3
0.1%
580.5
0.0%
836.0
-0.3%
218.4
-0.6%
870.6
-0.8%
415.4
-1.3%
858.6
-2.3%
Dr Reddy
ITC
TCS
Bharti
Airtel
Tata
power
IDFC
L&T
Vedanta
Ltd
Hindalco
Ambuja
Cement
2,973.0
2.4%
313.0
1.1%
2,319.8
0.7%
297.8
0.1%
61.3
-0.1%
41.2
-0.4%
1,107.8
-0.6%
63.8
-0.9%
71.1
-1.3%
191.9
-2.6%
IDEA
Tata Steel
ICICI
Bank
Yes Bank
M&M
HDFC Ltd
Lupin
109.5
2.4%
257.6
1.1%
237.3
0.5%
678.1
0.1%
1,176.7
-0.1%
1,170.0
-0.4%
1,689.2
-0.6%
Kotak
Bank
674.6
Hero
Moto
2,482.5
BHEL
-0.9%
-1.7%
139.6
-3.9%
PNB
Wipro
GAIL
Infosys
Cairn
India
RIL
93.8
2.1%
552.6
1.0%
358.3
0.4%
1,138.5
0.1%
118.7
-0.2%
999.4
-0.5%
Grasim
Ind
3,423.8
Bajaj
Auto
2,302.9
HUL
United
Spirits
-0.6%
-1.1%
767.9
-2.0%
2,586.8
-4.2%
Markets Today
Close Previous
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs
YTD(%)
26,731
34,816
32.8
NA
26,373
34,227
33.1
NA
1.4
1.7
-0.8
NA
6.9
5.6
-11.9
-2.3
6.9
5.6
-11.9
-2.3
68.05
1.09
118.79
67.84
1.09
118.68
0.3
0.0
0.1
-2.8
0.3
1.2
-2.8
0.3
1.2
57.6
7.0
24.7
17.4
43.5
56.5
7.1
25.2
17.5
43.0
2.0
-0.6
-1.9
-0.6
1.2
-6.7
NA
-12.8
4.0
-5.7
-8.4
NA
-14.4
4.6
-7.1
Sectoral Index
10000
5000
0
19-Jan
20-Jan
21-Jan
BSE Cash
2,657
15,223
15000
2,615
13,706
22-Jan
25-Jan
NSE Cash
27-Jan
19-Jan
20-Jan
21-Jan
22-Jan
NSE Derivative
422,129
4.00%
6.75%
5.75%
5.41%
-6.2bln $
21.35bln $
352.1bln $
7.00%
6.90%
31.12bln $
9.80%
10.60%
-34.2bln $
9.77bln $
5.20%
-11.09%
-1.99%
-1.42%
365,028
4.00%
6.75%
5.75%
5.61%
-8.2bln $
20.01bln $
350.37bln $
7.40%
7.30%
29.8bln $
-3.20%
-4.40%
-37.4bln $
9.78bln $
8.17%
-9.15%
-0.73%
-1.36%
3,498
17,412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec
Q3
Nov
2014
Q2
12M
Nov
Nov
Nov
Q3
Nov
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
398,971
20000
3,007
18,082
Prior Values
354,837
Latest
274,319
Period
3,089
18,064
263,891
KEY ECONOMICINDICATORS
3,063
16,295
25-Jan
27-Jan
Sector
Close
Previous
Auto
16797.55
16775.17
Banks
17641.59
17662.39
-20.8 -0.1177644
7597000
11792.74
11901.39
-108.65 -0.9129186
66926000
Capital Goods
12346.23
12431.39
-85.16
Consumer Durables
11895.66
11918.74
-23.08 -0.1936446
241000
8304.6
8368.14
-63.54 -0.7593085
1023000
FMCG
Change
% Change
Volume
22.38 0.1334115
1580000
-0.68504
8698000
Healthcare
17870.57
18140.06
-269.49
-1.485607
1830000
IT
11396.98
11501.95
-104.97 -0.9126279
1254000
Metals
6789.62
6766.95
22.67 0.3350106
6047000
Mid Cap
10993.02
11070.76
-77.74 -0.7022101
64406000
9034.06
9051.59
-17.53 -0.1936676
1422000
Power
1801.05
1772.47
28.58 1.6124391
12821000
PSU
6140.24
6098.82
41.42 0.6791478
14933000
Real Estate
1202.37
1189.49
12.88
1.082817
7741000
IT
Consumer Durables
Oil & Gas
Healthcare
Power
Mid Cap
FMCG
Auto
Banks
BSE Small Cap
Metals
PSU
Real Estate
Capital Goods
-20.0
-0.9
-0.9
-4.4
-5.5
-6.4
-7.0
-7.1
-8.0
-8.1
-8.3
-8.3
-9.1
-9.7
-13.3
-15.0
-10.0
(%)
-5.0
Company/
Industry
Telecom
Sector
News
View
Trai
has
come
out
with
recommendations on pricing spectrum
in the 700, 800, 900, 1800, 2100, 2300,
2500 bands according to spectrum
availability from the government
Impact
0.0
Mahindra
Lifespace
The minimum alternate tax (MAT) This is positive for players like Mahindra Lifespace as
levied on special economic zone (SEZ) this will not only lead to better demand absorption but
developers and units may finally be also improve their cash flow
removed in the coming Budget.
Currently, MAT is levied at 18.5% on
book profit, with the effective rate
touching 20%, factoring in surcharges
We expect Century Plyboard to post 9.1% YoY revenue growth to | 416.7 crore on account of moderate growth of
7.0% in plywood and allied division to | 300.6 crore as the sluggishness in demand continues. The EBITDA margin is
expected to decline 220 bps at 16.7% in the absence of low cost of inventory. On the bottomline front, we expect it to
grow 3.5% YoY to | 42.9 crore in Q3FY16
We expect Jyothy Laboratories to post revenue growth of 11.8% YoY to | 380.1 crore. We expect the soaps &
detergent and homecare segments to grow 12.9% and 4.8%, respectively. The estimated operating margin is 13%
with 24.8% YoY growth in earnings to | 37.1 crore
Power Grid reported strong Q3FY16 results, which were above our and consensus estimates primarily driven by
higher revenue, which grew 24.2% YoY to | 5,407 crore and lower than anticipated operating expenses during the
quarter. PAT increased 31.3% YoY during the quarter to | 1,613 crore (above our estimate)
Colgate Palmolives Q3FY16 net sales increased 1.8% YoY to | 1006.4 crore. Operating margins improved 326 bps to
22.8% on back of lower RM and A&P expense. PAT grew 21.8% YoY to | 159.4 crore on account of higher EBITDA
Aurobindo Pharma has received generic approval from USFDA for PF Prisms anti- fungal Vfend tablets. It expects to
launch this product in Q4FY16. Annual sales of this drug are US$103 million. Four generic companies have already
received USFDA approval of gVfend
United Spirits Q3FY16 revenues came in higher than our expectations. However, higher contribution from traded
goods and increase in advertisement & promotional expense led to a miss in profitability estimates. Net revenue was
at | 2650 crore (I-direct estimate: | 2230 crore). EBITDA came in lower at | 269 crore (I-direct estimate: | 314 crore).
PAT excluding exceptional items was at | 83 crore (I-direct estimate: profit of | 143 crore).
Titan Companys Q3FY16 revenues are likely to witness 7.9% YoY growth to | 3135.2 crore, which would be mainly
driven by 9% growth in the jewellery segment. EBITDA margins are likely to decline marginally by 40 bps YoY to
9.12% on account of lower making charges on gold jewellery and higher proportion of discounted sales in watches
and eyewear segment. Consequently, PAT is expected to be marginally higher by 4.2% YoY to | 198.7 crore
HDFC's PAT for Q3FY16 increased 6.7% YoY to | 1520 crore. NII grew 9% YoY to | 2103 crore higher than | 2078
crore expected mainly led by higher-than-expected growth at 12.7% YoY. However, NIM declined 10 bps QoQ to
3.85%. Spreads remained stable at 2.31%. Net loans grew 12.7% YoY to | 248097 crore led by individual loans
growing 14% YoY to | 173738 crore forming 70% of book. Asset quality was maintained with GNPA flat at 0.72%,
(GNPA - | 1786 crore)
IDFC Bank's PAT came in at | 242.2 crore, higher than our estimate of | 193 crore, primarily led by higher non-interest
income at | 217.9 crore. NII came in line with our estimate at | 386.3 crore. On the asset quality, the bank reported
GNPA at |1462 crore, with GNPA ratio of 3.09%. Net NPA ratio was at 0.98% in Q3FY16.
Sagar Cements revenues declined 3% YoY to | 121.9 crore led by 6.5% YoY declined in volumes. However, the
EBITDA margin improved to 10% vs. 5% in Q3FY15 mainly due to 5.0% YoY increase in realisation. PAT for the
quarter was at | 3.12 crore
Sensex Chart
Technical Outlook
Pivot Points
Index/Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI PORT
ADITYA BIRLA
AJANTA PHARMA
ALLAHABAD BANK
AMARA RAJA BATT.
AMBUJA CEMENT
AMTEK AUTO
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSP.ENT.
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
Close
24492.39
7437.75
1230.35
73.25
215.35
863.00
1219.85
54.95
821.95
191.90
38.10
53.25
1392.00
145.60
313.70
88.30
858.55
S1
24465.35
7426.90
1222.25
72.30
213.20
848.45
1222.45
54.60
811.15
189.40
37.85
53.15
1371.20
145.35
310.00
87.95
848.55
S2
24418.45
7412.35
1216.60
71.60
211.20
839.30
1213.95
53.80
801.45
187.80
37.50
52.65
1364.20
144.30
307.50
87.20
845.05
R1
24364.20
7395.85
1211.00
70.95
209.20
830.20
1205.45
53.05
791.75
186.20
37.15
52.20
1357.20
143.25
305.00
86.45
841.60
R2
24559.10
7456.00
1233.25
73.50
216.00
865.55
1239.40
56.20
823.75
192.65
38.50
54.10
1400.30
147.45
314.75
89.45
861.85
Trend
Neutral
Neutral
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
Neutral
+ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
801.30
790.55
785.90
781.25
804.55
-ve
13
11
19
20
9
12
13
5
4
15
4
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
Put Call
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Short Term
Range Bound
0
7240
7600
7543
7985
Advances / Declines
Advances
1349
838
BSE
NSE
Declines
1213
687
17
Intraday
Range Bound
0
7419-7390
7477-7520
0
0
1
0
0
10
9
Nifty
Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA
Unchanged
186
86
Results/Events Calendar
11
Monday
18
01
26
Monday
20
January
Tuesday
Axis Bank
Gandhi Special Tubes
Ultratech Cement
KPIT, South Indian Bank
Gati
27
January
Tuesday
03
February
Tuesday
09
February
Monday
January
Wednesday
January
Wednesday
02
Monday
January
Wednesday
0
0
0
0
0
February
Tuesday
HCL Technologies
Greenply Industries
Reliance Industries Ltd
0
0
January
08
19
Monday
13
January
January
TTK Prestige
Mindtree
Wipro, Asian Paints
Rallis India, Kotak Bank
0
25
12
January
February
Wednesday
10
February
Tuesday
February
Wednesday
Wonderla Holidays
ACC Cement
NHPC, Ambuja India Cement
Bata India
Bajaj electricals
14
January
Thursday
21
January
Thursday
Raymonds,Interglobe Aviation
VST Ind, Reliance Cap
Biocon, Alembic Pharma
Exide, Hindustan Zinc
Essel Propack, Idea Cellular
28
January
Thursday
04
February
Thursday
11
February
Thursday
Chennai Petro
Page Industries
Voltas
Ashok Leyland
0
15
Friday
22
Saturday
January
Saturday
30
January
Friday
06
Friday
Saturday
February
Saturday
JK Cement
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
Jet Airways
Kewal Kiran Clothing
VA Tech Wabag
13
February
Friday
January
February
12
23
Friday
05
January
January
Cairn India
ITC
Ashoka Buildcon
DB Corp
0
29
16
January
February
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
Date
26-Jan
26-Jan
27-Jan
27-Jan
Event
Markit US Services PMI
Markit US Comp PMI
New Home Sales
Industrial Profits YoY
Country
US
US
US
CH
Period
Jan P
Jan P
Dec
Dec
Actual
53.7
53.7
544k
-4.7%
Date
28-Jan
28-Jan
28-Jan
28-Jan
28-Jan
28-Jan
29-Jan
29-Jan
29-Jan
Event
FOMC (Lower Bound)
FOMC (Upper Bound)
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
GDP YoY
Eight Infrastructure Ind
Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
GDP Annualized QoQ
CPI Core YoY
Country
US
US
US
US
UK
IN
IN
US
EC
Period
27-Jan
27-Jan
23-Jan
16-Jan
4Q A
Dec
Dec
4Q A
Jan A
Expected
0.3%
0.5%
--------
0063
Expected
54.0
-500k
--
Chg(%)
Revenue
EBITDA
Q3FY16E
YoY
QoQ Q3FY16E
Dabur India Ltd
2,233.0
7.7
6.7
417.1
Titan Company
3,135.2
8.2
18.1
285.9
Maruti Suzuki
15,197.4 20.8
9.1 2,505.3
Symphony
187.2 23.6
45.1
61.5
Vedanta Ltd
14,613.8 -24.0 -11.8 2,903.2
Firstsource Sol
832.0 10.8
5.0
108.0
Glenmark
1,841.4
8.2
-1.8
397.6
Bharti Airtel
24,633.2
6.0
3.3 8,575.4
Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC
Company
Previous
0.3%
0.5%
--2.1%
-1.3% Recent Releases
72277.0 Date
2.0% 27 Jan 2016
-27 Jan 2016
Report
Result Update Persistent Systems
Result Update HDFC Bank
27 Jan 2016
27 Jan 2016
27 Jan 2016
Chg(%)
Chg(%)
PAT
YoY
QoQ Q3FY16E
YoY
QoQ
20.4
4.2
339.6 19.7
-0.5
3.6
41.0
198.7
4
36.7
57.3
10.4 1,400.0 74.5
14.2
27.9
81.1
48.3 34.1
67.8
-52.8 -27.4
-281.0
PL
PL
15.4
9.7
71.0 23.4
14.7
49.7
-1.1
264.7 130.6
32.1
10.1
3.9 1,297.1 -9.7
-14.8
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.