NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Monday, October, 31 2016 at 4:00PM ET

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are usually released every Tuesday at 6:00AM. Results released prior to September 20 were among
registered voters. Results among likely voters are denoted with an asterisk below.
Results for the week of October 24, 2016 through October 30, 2016 are among a national sample of 40,816 likely voters (+/- 1.0%),
12,669 likely Republican voters (+/-1.2%) and 13,622 likely Democratic voters (+/-1.1%). Complete error estimates can be found in
the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

10/24 10/30*
10/17 10/23*
10/10 10/16*
10/310/9*
9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/18--7/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7

Foreign
Policy
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5

The
environment
8
9
9
9
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9

Terrorism
13
14
15
16
19
19
15
14
14
16
17
18
20
23
26
23
22
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15

Immigration
8
8
7
9
7
8
8
10
7
7
8
7
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7

Health
care
17
16
15
14
14
14
17
16
17
16
16
15
14
13
13
12
13
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16

Jobs and the

Economy
34
33
33
33
33
30
32
32
32
33
32
33
32
30
28
29
29
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32

Education
9
9
9
9
8
9
9
10
10
10
9
10
9
8
8
8
9
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10

Other
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
5
6
5
6
5
6
6
7
8
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-

1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28-1/3

5
4
5
5
6

9
8
8
8
8

17
19
21
23
23

8
7
8
8
8

13
15
13
13
14

32
33
29
28
27

10
10
10
8
9

5
5
4
5
5

1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
10/24 10/30*
10/17 10/23*
10/1010/16*
10/310/9*
9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/187/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/25/8
4/255/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Strongly approve
33
33
32
32
32
33
32
29
29
30
31
30
32
32
28
27
27
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
20
19
21
20
20
19
20
22
22
21
21
22
21
20
21
22
22
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
10
10
10
10
11
10
11
11
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
12
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
37
37
36
37
36
37
36
38
36
36
36
37
35
36
39
38
38
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

10/24 10/30*
10/17 10/23*
10/1010/16*
10/310/9*
9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/18---7/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/165/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Republican
30
30
30
30
29
28
29
30
30
29
29
28
30
30
31
29
27
28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
36
35
36
35
36
36
36
34
34
34
35
34
36
36
32
33
33
34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
33
33
33
33
33
34
34
34
35
36
34
37
32
33
36
36
38
37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR
PARTY]
10/24 10/30*
10/17 10/23*
10/1010/16*
10/310/9*
9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/187/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 4/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Republic
an Party
37
36
35
35
35
36
35
34
31
31
29
31
29
33
32
37
32
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
29
31
30
30
29
30
29
26
26
28
26
27
29
27
26
26
26
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
31
30
32
31
33
31
33
39
41
40
43
39
40
38
39
34
39
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No
answer
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

10/24 10/30*
10/17 10/23*
10/1010/16*
10/310/9*

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
51
50
51
51

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
44
44
43
44

No
answer
5
5
6
5

9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/187/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
5/306/5
5/235/29
5/16 5/22
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8

50
51
50
48
48
48
50
50
51
50
46
46
47
48
49
48
49
48
47
47
48
49

44
44
45
44
42
42
42
41
41
42
45
45
44
43
41
42
42
44
45
43
45
44

6
6
6
8
10
10
8
8
8
8
9
9
10
9
10
10
9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

10/24 10/30*
10/17 10/23*
10/1010/16*
10/310/9*
9/2610/2*
9/199/25*
9/129/18*
9/59/11
8/299/4
8/228/28
8/158/21
8/88/14
8/18/7
7/257/31
7/187/24
7/117/17
7/47/10
6/277/3
6/206/26
6/136/19
6/66/12
6/26/5

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
41
41
40
41
40
40
40
40
37
37
38
37
38
38
41
40
38
38
36
38
38
40

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
47
46
46
46
46
45
45
42
41
41
43
43
44
43
39
39
40
41
42
42
42
39

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
6
7
8
8
9
10
10
11
12
11
11
11
10
9
10
10
11
9
9
9
9
9

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
3
3
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
5
4
4
4
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
4

No
answer
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
6
6
4
5
4
5
6
7
6
6
7
7
6
8

What are the chances that you will vote in the general election for President in November?

10/24 10/30
10/17 10/23
10/1010/16
10/310/9
9/2610/2
9/199/25
9/129/18

I already
voted
21
10
4
3
N/A
N/A
N/A

Absolutely
certain I
will vote
68
78
81
83
82
81
81

Large chance
I will vote
6
6
7
8
8
9
10

50-50
chance I will
vote
3
3
4
4
5
5
5

Small chance I
will vote
1
1
2
2
2
2
2

I will not
vote
1
1
1
1
1
2
2

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you think having more women in decision-making positions is:

10/24 10/30*

Good for the country

47

Bad for the country

5

No answer
1

Makes no difference
48

The following questions were in the field from Saturday, October 29, 2016 through Sunday, October 30, 2016 following FBI Director
James Comeys announcement.
How much have you heard or followed news about the re-opening of the FBI investigation into emails sent on Hillary Clintons
private server?

10/29 10/30*

A lot
54

Some
34

Only a little
9

Not at all
2

No answer
1

Is the FBIs re-opening the case about Clintons emails an important issue to discuss or more of a distraction to the campaign?

10/29 10/30*

Important issue to discuss

55

Distraction to the campaign

44

No answer
1

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of October 24, 2016 through October 30, 2016 was conducted online
among a national sample of 40,186 aged 18 and over who are likely to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three
million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education,
region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic
composition of the United States with the sampling weights adjusted to account for voting turnout factors published by Michael McDonald on
http://www.electproject.org/2012g. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews is included.
The smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of the Weekly
Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.0 percentage point for likely voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total LVs

Unweighted N
40,816

Plus or minus
1.0

Republican LVs
Democrat LVs
Independent LVs

12,669
13,622
14,149

1.2
1.1
1.2

Male LVs
Female LVs

20,375
20,441

1.0
1.0

18-24 LVs
25-34 LVs
35-44 LVs
45-54 LVs
55-64 LVs
65+ LVs

2,293
3,851
5,603
8,636
10,834
9,599

2.7
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.4

White LVs
Black LVs
Hispanic LVs
Other LVs

32,968
2,928
1,808
3,112

1.0
2.4
3.0
2.5

Clinton supporters LVs

Trump supporters LVs
Johnson supporters LVs
Stein supporters LVs

18,617
17,399
2,695
925

1.1
1.0
2.7
4.3

FBI Question LVs

4,349

2.1

FBI Question Republican LVs

FBI Question Democrat LVs
FBI Question Independent LVs

1,873
2,020
418

3.2
3.0
6.7