CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

4500 Likely Voters ⇤
October 28-29, 2016

±1.9%

1. How much have you heard about the FBI’s statement on Friday that there may be additional
emails related to Hillary Clinton?
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
Some . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Nothing yet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%

2. What impact could this have on whether or not you’d vote for Hillary Clinton?
Asked of respondents who had heard about the FBI statement

I’m more likely to vote for Clinton now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
It depends what we learn - I still could switch my vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5%
I’m less likely to vote for Clinton now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
None, it doesn’t change my vote at all . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%
None, I already voted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%

3. Do you generally feel the issue of Hillary Clinton’s emails is:
Not very important, they’re making too much of it . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Bad, but not as bad as things I dislike about Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Bad, and it’s worse than anything I dislike about Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . 45%

4. Do you expect any new emails to be:
More of the same things we already know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%
Information that could be more damaging to Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%

4500 likely voters were interviewed in thirteen battleground states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa,
Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

1

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI

5. If Hillary Clinton does win the Presidency, do you expect the email issue will...
Prevent her from getting things done . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Matter to her political opponents, but not affect getting things done . . . . . . 39%
Not matter much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%

6. In general, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Somewhat liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
Somewhat conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20%
Very conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

7. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a...?
Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%

8. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?
Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%

2

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI

9. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%

10. Are you male or female?
Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%

11. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

12. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

13. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

3

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI
1. Heard about FBI Statement
How much have you heard about the FBI’s statement on Friday that there may be additional emails related to Hillary Clinton?
Gender
A lot
Some
Not much
Nothing yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

38%
41%
12%
8%

44%
42%
8%
5%

33%
41%
16%
10%

28%
44%
16%
12%

35%
40%
13%
12%

41%
42%
11%
6%

48%
40%
9%
3%

39%
43%
11%
7%

28%
41%
17%
13%

43%
29%
13%
14%

36%
40%
17%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99%

100%

99%

100%

100%

100%

(4,500)

(2,124)

(2,376)

(806)

(1,125)

(1,744)

(825)

(3,414)

(563)

(339)

(184)

Party ID
A lot
Some
Not much
Nothing yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

38%
41%
12%
8%

33%
40%
15%
12%

41%
44%
10%
5%

43%
42%
9%
6%

38%
40%
13%
9%

33%
42%
15%
10%

45%
41%
9%
5%

38%
45%
11%
6%

38%
41%
12%
8%

52%
38%
7%
2%

35%
42%
13%
9%

100%

99%

99%

99%

100%

100%

99%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(4,500)

(1,747)

(1,333)

(1,328)

(1,101)

(1,874)

(1,525)

(743)

(3,757)

(875)

(3,612)

1

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI

2. Impact on Vote
What impact could this have on whether or not you’d vote for Hillary Clinton?
Asked of respondents who had heard about the FBI statement

Gender
I’m more likely to vote for Clinton now
It depends what we learn - I still could
switch my vote
I’m less likely to vote for Clinton now
None, it doesn’t change my vote at all
None, I already voted
Totals
(Weighted N)

Total

Male

6%

5%

5%
18%
48%
23%

5%
22%
45%
23%

Age group

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

7%

5%

6%

5%

6%
14%
50%
23%

12%
13%
49%
21%

7%
19%
51%
17%

3%
21%
49%
22%

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

6%

4%

14%

15%

3%

2%
16%
40%
36%

5%
20%
48%
23%

4%
6%
51%
25%

14%
16%
35%
20%

5%
19%
50%
23%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99%

100%

100%

99%

100%

(2,005)

(2,127)

(706)

(985)

(1,643)

(798)

(3,183)

(486)

(290)

(173)

Total

Totals
(Weighted N)

65+

(4,132)

Party ID
I’m more likely to vote for Clinton now
It depends what we learn - I still could
switch my vote
I’m less likely to vote for Clinton now
None, it doesn’t change my vote at all
None, I already voted

Race/Ethnicity

Democrat

Independent

Ideology
Republican

Liberal

Moderate

White Evangelical
Conservative

Yes

No

Tea Party
Yes

No

6%

13%

2%

0%

9%

6%

3%

2%

6%

1%

7%

5%
18%
48%
23%

6%
5%
50%
26%

5%
26%
46%
21%

4%
26%
47%
23%

4%
4%
53%
29%

9%
18%
44%
22%

2%
27%
48%
20%

4%
27%
46%
21%

6%
16%
48%
24%

3%
33%
45%
18%

6%
14%
48%
24%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99%

100%

(4,132)

(1,544)

(1,269)

(1,250)

(1,000)

(1,680)

(1,452)

(696)

(3,436)

(853)

(3,273)

2

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI

3. Importance of Email Issue
Do you generally feel the issue of Hillary Clinton’s emails is:
Gender
Not very important, they’re making too
much of it
Bad, but not as bad as things I dislike
about Donald Trump
Bad, and it’s worse than anything I
dislike about Donald Trump
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

33%

32%

34%

30%

34%

34%

34%

28%

59%

42%

29%

22%

19%

24%

42%

24%

14%

13%

19%

32%

29%

27%

45%

49%

42%

28%

42%

52%

53%

53%

9%

29%

44%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99%

100%

100%

(4,479)

(2,116)

(2,363)

(806)

(1,122)

(1,735)

(815)

(3,394)

(562)

(338)

(184)

Party ID
Not very important, they’re making too
much of it
Bad, but not as bad as things I dislike
about Donald Trump
Bad, and it’s worse than anything I
dislike about Donald Trump
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Democrat

Independent

33%

62%

21%

22%

31%

45%

7%

Ideology
Republican

Liberal

Moderate

7%

64%

36%

21%

9%

29%

58%

84%

6%

White Evangelical
Conservative

Tea Party

Yes

No

Yes

No

6%

11%

37%

5%

40%

28%

8%

12%

23%

6%

25%

35%

86%

77%

39%

89%

35%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(4,479)

(1,745)

(1,327)

(1,315)

(1,099)

(1,869)

(1,510)

(735)

(3,744)

(868)

(3,600)

3

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI

4. Expectations about New Emails
Do you expect any new emails to be:
Gender
More of the same things we already
know
Information that could be more
damaging to Hillary Clinton
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

52%

49%

55%

58%

55%

48%

50%

46%

86%

59%

47%

48%

51%

45%

42%

45%

52%

50%

54%

14%

41%

53%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(4,494)

(2,122)

(2,371)

(806)

(1,123)

(1,741)

(823)

(3,412)

(562)

(337)

(183)

Party ID
More of the same things we already
know
Information that could be more
damaging to Hillary Clinton
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

52%

87%

41%

19%

87%

59%

18%

25%

57%

12%

62%

48%

13%

59%

81%

13%

41%

82%

75%

43%

88%

38%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(4,494)

(1,746)

(1,330)

(1,326)

(1,100)

(1,872)

(1,522)

(741)

(3,753)

(871)

(3,610)

4

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI

5. Impact on Presidency
If Hillary Clinton does win the Presidency, do you expect the email issue will...
Gender
Prevent her from getting things done
Matter to her political opponents, but
not affect getting things done
Not matter much
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

39%

45%

34%

29%

35%

45%

45%

44%

15%

29%

39%

39%
22%

38%
17%

40%
26%

51%
20%

41%
24%

34%
21%

34%
21%

38%
18%

48%
37%

41%
30%

35%
26%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99%

100%

100%

100%

(4,478)

(2,121)

(2,357)

(804)

(1,122)

(1,734)

(818)

(3,397)

(558)

(338)

(184)

Party ID
Prevent her from getting things done
Matter to her political opponents, but
not affect getting things done
Not matter much
Totals
(Weighted N)

Race/Ethnicity

Ideology

White Evangelical

Tea Party

Total

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Yes

No

Yes

No

39%

14%

50%

62%

15%

34%

64%

58%

36%

70%

32%

39%
22%

56%
30%

34%
16%

22%
16%

62%
22%

41%
25%

20%
16%

26%
16%

41%
23%

18%
12%

44%
24%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99%

100%

100%

(4,478)

(1,741)

(1,327)

(1,319)

(1,101)

(1,859)

(1,518)

(734)

(3,744)

(874)

(3,594)

5

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