Professional Documents
Culture Documents
S&P CNX
8,171
AMRJ IN
170.8
1,132/630
-12/15/38
256
47.9
Net Sales
42.1
47.8
57.4
7.1
8.4
10.7
EBITDA
Adj PAT
4.2
5.1
7.0
EPS (INR)
24.3
30.0
41.3
Gr. (%)
12.3
23.1
37.7
BV/Sh.(INR)
99.5
137.3
189.2
RoE (%)
27.2
25.3
25.3
RoCE (%)
37.6
34.8
33.5
P/E (x)
37.6
30.5
22.2
9.2
6.7
4.8
P/BV (X)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
2-9%
9%
CMP: INR915
Buy
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
36.0
2QFY16
33.2
1QFY15
35.4
33.1
4QFY14
1QFY16
34.4
3QFY14
35.5
34.8
2QFY14
4QFY15
33.2
1QFY14
34.8
31.2
4QFY13
3QFY15
34.0
3QFY13
PAT (INR m)
1,085
1,218
1,121
1,454
1,420
1,503
1,377
1,755
1,800
1,801
1,878
1,988
1,987
1,226
1,003 1,072
8261,060 1,024 1,221
761 720 809
596
39
30
29 31
22
23
17
15
39
8 6 8
2
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
1QFY13
95
2QFY13
1,195
17.6 17.4
EBITDA (%)
1QFY13
17.2
33.7
34.2
2QFY13
2QFY15
33.1
1QFY13
9.2
2QFY16
1QFY16
10,698
4QFY15
8,629
3QFY14
10,665
8,071
2QFY14
3QFY15
8,938
1QFY14
10,602
8,038
4QFY13
2QFY15
7,592
3QFY13
10.5
10,290
7,205
2QFY13
20.5
15.1
4QFY14
6,962
1QFY13
23.6
1QFY15
28.0 23.719.6
11,376
31.4
28.4
8,879
32.7
2QFY16
1QFY16
4QFY15
3QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
15.5
2QFY13
150,000
135,000
120,000
105,000
90,000
75,000
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
60,000
28 October 2015
Industry structure remains duopoly, but AMRJ is a strong No. 2: While the
industry structure remains largely duopoly, AMRJ has emerged as a formidable
challenger to leader EXIDE, with market leadership in telecom (46% share) and
UPS (32%) segments, and a fast gaining share in Autos. Over FY04-15, AMRJ
clocked a CAGR of 34% and 68% in net sales and PAT respectively, far exceeding
EXIDs 20% CAGR each in net sales and PAT. This has been driven through a
combination of technological innovations (first to introduce maintenance-free,
factory charged, extended warranty batteries), witty advertising and unique
2
Net Sales
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT
EPS (INR)
FY16E
Old
49,972
18.1
5,231
30.6
Chg (%)
-4.3
-50bp
-2.2
-2.2
Rev
57,355
18.7
7,049
41.3
FY17E
Old
62,260
19.5
7,784
45.6
Chg (%)
-7.9
-70bp
-9.4
-9.4
Source: MOSL
35
15 Yrs Avg(x)
10 Yrs Avg(x)
P/B (x)
5 Yrs Avg(x)
8.0
28
15 Yrs Avg(x)
10 Yrs Avg(x)
7.1
6.0
25.5
21
14.4
14
3.7
4.0
2.6
10.4
2.0
9.6
1.9
28 October 2015
Oct-15
Aug-14
Jun-13
May-12
Mar-11
Jan-10
Nov-08
Sep-07
Aug-06
Jun-05
Apr-04
Feb-03
Dec-01
Oct-15
Aug-14
Jun-13
May-12
Mar-11
Jan-10
Nov-08
Sep-07
Aug-06
Jun-05
Apr-04
Feb-03
Dec-01
Oct-00
Source: MOSL
Oct-00
0.0
Source: MOSL
Rating
TP
(INR)
P/E (x)
FY16E
FY17E
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16E
FY17E
Bajaj Auto
2,569
Buy
3,118
19.6
15.4
12.2
Hero MotoCorp
2,624
Buy
2,862
16.7
14.7
272
Buy
326
27.9
16.9
M&M
1,230
Neutral
1,129
19.2
Maruti Suzuki
4,496
Buy
5,098
Tata Motors
386
Buy
Ashok Leyland
91
Eicher Motors#
RoE (%)
FY16E
FY17E
RoCE (%)
FY16E
FY17E
Auto OEM's
10.0
33.2
36.1
47.6
48.3
10.6
9.5
43.3
40.5
60.4
55.3
16.8
10.9
25.5
33.3
24.3
32.7
15.4
14.5
12.7
16.0
15.9
17.7
17.8
26.2
18.7
12.8
10.0
18.5
21.9
25.8
29.5
491
8.9
7.2
3.8
3.1
21.9
21.0
18.1
18.4
Buy
110
23.0
11.8
11.1
6.6
20.2
31.8
21.3
32.8
17,385
Buy
24,283
48.8
27.7
26.8
16.0
34.7
44.6
36.8
51.9
Bharat Forge
867
Buy
1,252
22.7
17.3
12.2
9.9
23.6
25.9
24.6
28.0
Exide Industries
161
Buy
183
22.3
17.7
13.3
10.9
13.7
15.4
18.7
19.9
915
Buy
1,032
30.5
22.2
18.2
13.7
25.3
25.3
34.8
33.5
BOSCH
# Nos. are on CY basis
21,157
Buy
26,864
47.2
34.4
31.3
23.1
17.8
21.1
TVS Motor
Auto Ancillaries
28 October 2015
26.4
29.8
Source: Company, MOSL
Amara Raja| Story in charts: Robust ~30% EPS CAGR expected over FY15-17E
Exhibit 10: Expect net sales to register a CAGR of ~17% over
FY15-17E
2W (mn units)
LVRLA (billion. Amph)
8.4
8.25 8.4
FY13
FY14
FY15
57,355
FY12
13.6
47,831
1.65
1.5
FY11
42,113
34,367
3.5
2.25
1.5
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
17.6
16.8
16.3
15.2
14.4
EPS
45.2
Growth (%)
4,515
5,603
7,091
8,418
10,744
3,396
24.7
12.3
12.6
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY12
17.2
21.7
24.3
30.4
44.0
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
3,185
5,605
6,685
RoCE (%)
41.2
37.8
29.3
40.9
31.1
RoE (%)
37.6
30.6
34.8
27.2
33.5
25.3
25.3
-395
-434
FCF
3,917
1,840
Capex
-69
-1,463
2,273
1,763
3,225
1,914
2,723
CFO
44.9
36.2
26.3
FY12
-809
19.9
16.0
29,614
4.5
3.5
22.5
23,645
4.7
Growth (%)
-3,500
-3,986
-6,000
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
28 October 2015
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
28 October 2015
FY10
8,414
10.8
1,497
21.1
6,432
5.9
485
68
6,412
14.9
0
FY11
10,725
27.5
2,098
40.1
7,871
22.4
756
56
7,569
18.0
65
14,645
17,611
20.3
FY12
13,358
24.6
2,562
22.1
9,540
21.2
1,257
66
9,212
21.7
881
1,254.1
23,645
34.3
FY13
16,983
27.1
3,019
17.9
12,249
28.4
1,714
36
11,523
25.1
2,586
193.4
29,614
25.2
FY14
22,229
30.9
3,613
19.7
15,640
27.7
2,976
74
13,768
19.5
1,843
-28.7
34,001
14.8
FY15
27,760
24.9
4,008
10.9
19,065
21.9
4,688
58
17,105
24.2
2,396
30.0
42,466
24.9
FY16E
FY17E
33,054
40,625
19.1
22.9
4,758
5,975
18.7
25.6
22,020
26,082
15.5
18.5
6,277
8,568
34
37
18,467
21,403
8.0
15.9
2,918
3,250
21.8
11.4
47,831
57,355
12.6
19.9
Source: Company, MOSL
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
FY10
14,645
11.5
FY11
17,611
20.3
FY12
23,645
34.3
FY13
29,614
25.2
FY14
34,367
16.0
FY15
42,113
22.5
FY16E
47,831
13.6
FY17E
57,355
19.9
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
PBT after EO Exp.
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
PAT Adj for EO items
Change (%)
11,760
2,885
19.7
429
2,455
79
2,546
34.4
1,670
1,670
107.5
15,037
2,574
14.6
417
2,157
31
2,204
32.8
1,481
1,481
-11.3
20,249
3,396
14.4
465
2,931
25
3,186
32.5
2,151
2,151
45.2
25,099
4,515
15.2
661
3,854
10
4,218
32.0
2,867
2,929
36.2
28,764
5,603
16.3
646
4,957
7
5,367
31.5
3,674
3,701
26.3
35,023
7,091
16.8
1,340
5,751
2
6,099
32.6
4,109
4,158
12.3
39,413
8,418
17.6
1,492
6,926
9
7,417
31.0
5,118
5,118
23.1
46,610
10,744
18.7
1,762
8,982
9
9,723
27.5
7,049
7,049
37.7
FY13
171
10,427
10,598
195
881
11,674
6,803
3,214
3,589
1,030
161
12,925
2,929
3,807
4,108
2,082
6,030
1,577
1,960
2,493
6,895
11,674
0.0
FY14
171
13,456
13,627
301
843
14,772
9,955
3,860
6,096
1,447
161
13,691
3,350
4,528
2,946
2,867
6,623
1,577
1,858
3,188
7,068
14,771
-0.2
FY15
171
16,825
16,996
368
741
18,106
14,414
4,970
9,444
863
161
13,414
4,181
5,541
2,222
1,469
5,775
1,521
2,616
1,639
7,638
18,106
0.5
FY16E
171
23,273
23,444
368
773
24,586
20,277
6,462
13,815
1,000
161
16,285
4,643
6,293
3,679
1,669
6,675
1,858
2,971
1,847
9,610
24,586
0.0
28 October 2015
(INR Million)
FY10
171
5,266
5,436
216
912
6,565
4,911
1,854
3,057
227
161
6,311
2,176
2,423
625
1,087
3,191
1,376
281
1,535
3,120
6,565
0.0
FY11
171
6,289
6,459
205
1,000
7,664
5,388
2,237
3,151
375
161
7,472
2,847
3,057
451
1,117
3,496
1,091
937
1,468
3,977
7,664
0.0
FY12
171
8,064
8,235
220
855
9,310
6,213
2,667
3,546
315
161
9,493
2,666
3,197
2,292
1,339
4,206
949
1,196
2,061
5,288
9,310
0.0
FY17E
171
32,155
32,326
368
773
33,467
23,777
8,224
15,553
1,000
161
24,529
5,543
7,546
9,438
2,001
7,775
2,319
3,562
1,894
16,753
33,467
0.0
(INR Million)
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
9.8
12.3
31.8
1.5
17.4
8.7
11.1
37.8
2.3
30.9
12.6
15.3
48.2
1.9
17.4
17.2
21.0
62.0
2.5
17.6
21.7
25.4
79.8
3.6
19.3
24.3
32.2
99.5
3.6
18.0
30.0
38.7
137.3
-6.5
-26.0
41.3
51.6
189.2
-8.9
-26.0
93.5
74.4
28.7
10.7
54.3
0.2
105.5
82.3
24.2
8.9
60.9
0.3
72.6
59.7
19.0
6.5
45.6
0.2
53.3
43.5
14.7
5.2
33.9
0.3
42.2
35.9
11.5
4.5
27.5
0.4
37.6
28.4
9.2
3.7
21.8
0.4
30.5
23.6
6.7
3.2
18.2
-0.7
22.2
17.7
4.8
2.6
13.7
-1.0
35.2
38.4
24.9
31.4
29.3
37.8
31.1
41.2
30.6
40.9
27.2
37.6
25.3
34.8
25.3
33.5
2.2
54.2
52
34
62
2.3
59.0
57
23
73
2.5
41.2
45
15
46
2.5
36.1
42
19
34
2.3
35.6
43
17
44
2.3
36.2
43
13
47
1.9
35.4
42
14
45
1.7
35.3
42
15
47
11.5
70.4
107.5
20.3
-10.8
-11.3
34.3
31.9
45.2
25.2
33.0
36.2
16.0
24.1
26.3
22.5
26.6
12.3
13.6
18.7
23.1
19.9
27.6
37.7
2.0
0.2
2.1
0.2
2.3
0.1
2.1
0.1
2.1
0.1
2.3
0.0
2.4
0.0
3.2
0.0
28 October 2015
(INR Million)
FY10
2,546
430
61
785
-260
1,992
-515
1,628
338
-177
-1,908
-68
-68
-2,044
-78
703
625
FY11
2,204
417
9
776
-1,138
716
-667
195
54
-612
17
-21
-419
-422
-174
625
451
FY12
3,187
470
-28
1,026
120
2,723
-809
2,176
82
-727
-271
84
-222
-409
1,848
444
2,292
FY13
4,218
577
-110
1,366
-94
3,225
-1,463
1,892
269
-1,194
3
-17
-323
-336
1,825
2,283
4,108
FY14
5,366
637
-808
1,606
-1,315
2,273
-434
2,354
299
-3,448
-87
-14
-430
-531
-1,192
4,138
2,946
FY15
6,099
1,245
-29
1,922
-1,475
3,917
-3,986
-104
176
-3,810
-112
-84
-552
-748
-675
2,897
2,221
FY16E
7,417
1,492
-491
2,299
-514
5,605
-6,000
-395
500
-5,500
32
-9
1,331
1,353
1,458
2,221
3,679
FY17E
9,723
1,762
-741
2,674
-1,385
6,685
-3,500
3,185
750
-2,750
0
-9
1,833
1,823
5,759
3,679
9,438
Jun-15
Mar-15
Jun-14
Promoter
52.1
52.1
52.1
DII
9.2
9.0
9.5
FII
18.8
18.0
16.9
Others
19.9
20.9
21.5
Holder Name
% Holding
2.4
1.8
1.3
1.1
Name
Name
Ramachandra N Galla
Chairman
Ramachandra N Galla
Nagarjun Valluripalli*
Jayadev Galla
Jayadev Galla
S V Raghavendra
Raymond J Brown*
T R Narayanaswamy*
Name
Type
Statutory
Statutory
Statutory
Statutory
Cost Auditor
28 October 2015
EPS
(INR)
MOSL
forecast
Consensus
forecast
Variation
(%)
FY16
30.0
31.1
-3.6
FY17
41.3
39.8
3.8
COMPANIES
SECTOR UPDATES
NOTES
28 October 2015
11
Disclosures
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