Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing

Todd J. Thomas, University of Arkansas

n this section we will present the general com- Example: Following this rule we test a claim by analyzing sample data in an attempt to choose between the
ponents of a formal hypothesis test.
two following explanations:

8.2 Basics of Hypothesis Testing

At the end of this lesson you should know how to:
1. Identify the null and alternative hypothesis from
a given claim and express them both in symbolic
form.
2. Calculate the value of the test statistic, given a
claim and sample data.
3. Choose the sampling distribution that is relevant.
4. Eter find the P-value or identify the critcal value.
5. State the conclusion about a claim in simple and
nontechnical terms.

Definition
Hypothesis: In statistics, a hypothesis is a claim
or statement about a property of a population.
Hypothesis Test Also called a test of significance
is a procedure for testing a claim about a property of a population.

1. In testing the XSORT gender-selection method that

is suppose to make babies more likely to be girls,
the results of 52 girls in 100 births is greater than
50% but 52 girls could easily occur by chance, so
there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that the
XSORT method is effective.
2. In testing the XSORT gender-selection method that
is suppose to make babies more likely to be girls, the
results of 95 girls in 100 births is greater than 50%
and 95 girls is so extreme that it could not easily
occur by chance, so there is sufficient evidence to
conclude that the XSORT method is effective.

Null and Alternatrive Hypothesis

The null hypothesis H0 is a statement that the
value of a population parameter is equal to some
claimed value. We test the null hypothesis directly,
and always assume it is initially true. H0 := 0.5
The alternative hypothesis HA , Ha or H1 is a
statement that the parameter has a value that somehow differs from the null hypothesis. We will never
assume equality with the alternative hypothesis, and
will only use the symbols 6=, <, and > when describing the alternative hypothesis. HA :6= 0.05,
HA > 0.05, or HA < 0.05.

The basic rule underlhing the hypothesis testing procedure is based on the rare event rule: If under a given
assumption, the probability of a particular observed event Example: In1997, a survey of 840 households showed
is extremely small, we conclude that the assumption is that 135 of them use email. Use those sample results
probably not correct.
to test the claim that more than 15% of households use

email. Use a 0.05 significance level. What is the null

and alternative hypothesis?
Solution Since we always assume equality with the
null hypothesis, then H0 : p = 0.15. We need read the
question carefully to see that we want to test the claim
that more than 15% of households use email, so our
alternative hypothesis in HA :> 0.15

Formula for finding the test statistic:

p p
z=r
pq
n

(1)

Requirements for a Valid Proportion Test

You must have at least five values of p, that is
np 5.

Remember! Always be sure BEFORE you conduct any

You must have at least five value of q, that is, nq
test to consider the context of the data, the source of the
5.
data, and the sampling method used to collect the data.
If any of these were done incorrectly, or improperly, no Two-Tail, Left Tail, and Right Tail Tests
amout of statistical torturing will give you good results.
Claims from Hypothesis Testing
We always test the null hypothesis and we always assume
that the null hypothesis is true initially. Thus, we can
only come to one of two conclusions about the null
hypothesis:

Figure 1: Left tail, right tail, and two tail tests.

test.jpg

1. Reject H0 : and defalult to the alternative hypothesis.

2. Fail to Reject H0 :, there is sufficient evidence to
support the validity of the claim.
Test Statistic: The test statistic is a value
that is used to make a decision about the null
hypothesis. It is found by converting the sample
statistic to a score with the assumption that
the null hypothesis is true.

Significance Level: Denoted by the greek letter

, it is the probability of making the mistake of
rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. The
significance level is found by converting the confidence level to decimal notation, then subtracting 1.
1 CI = .
Critical Value Any value that separates the Critical Region (Where we reject H0 :) from the values
of the test statistic that do not lead to rejection of
the null hypothesis.
P-Value The probability of getting a value of the
test statistic is at least as extreme as the one representing the given smaple data, assuming that H0 :
is true.

The P-value is also called the probability value therefore 0leqp 1.

For a left tail test (ie ), the critical region is to the
left of the test statistic.
For a right tail test (ie ), the critical region is to
the right of the test statistic.
For a two tail test, (ie 6=) the critical region is
the extreme right and extreme left on the normal
distribution curve.
As a rull of thumb, If the p is low, the null must
go! This means if your p-value is very low (less
than ), then we reject the null hypothesis.
Our goal is to present the test statistic, state
our conclusion, and leave the decision of the validity of the claim up to the reader. We just
present the numbers void of all biases.