ICCE Background Guide Fall 2016

The International Crisis Conference at Elon
November 13th-November 14th
1 | P a g e

Table of Contents (Click on the page you want instead of scrolling)

Table of Contents ......................................................................... 2
Introduction Letter ...................................................................... 4
Simulation Schedule .................................................................... 5
Protocol and Dress Code ............................................................. 6
Special Thanks ............................................................................. 9
The United States of America ................................................... 10
Historical Overview .................................................................. 10
Foreign Policy Goals ................................................................. 11
Relations to the Crises ............................................................... 11
Relationships to the Other Committees ..................................... 12
Russian Federation .................................................................... 15
Israel ............................................................................................ 20
Syria Assad ................................................................................. 24
Syria Opposition ........................................................................ 28
2 | P a g e

Iran .............................................................................................. 33
Turkey Erdogan ......................................................................... 37
Turkey Military .......................................................................... 42
Kurdistan .................................................................................... 48
3 | P a g e

Introduction Letter
Dear Participants,
The International Crisis Conference at Elon (I.C.C.E.) is designed to give students interested in
international affairs an interactive learning experience. This fall, I.C.C.E. will put on its 18th biannual conference and will have participants from four International Relations classes and one
Comparative Politics class. The ultimate goal is to apply theory to practice in terms of
international relations and to implement theories of realism to real life scenarios.
The scope of I.C.C.E. has changed over the years and has included a sub-Saharan Africa focus,
West Asia, South Asia, and now the Middle East. This year, the head crisis staff is excited to
introduce a new twist to the simulation as we present a historical crisis simulation set in October
2016. We will be presenting Three Central Themes to the participants, which include:
Syrian Civil War

Turkish Coup dtat
These themes are designed around the countries present in the simulation to ensure that all
participants will have themes capable of engaging their committee. During the simulation,
students will serve as a representative for their country. For example, one of the delegates to
Russia may serve as the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Committee sizes range from 8 - 15
depending on the size of the classes participating and the countries that are represented.
We hope that you will all be excited to learn about I.C.C.E. through this presentation and that it
will serve as a catalyst to apply simulations like this throughout schools around the nation.
Sincerely,
Crisis Head Staff
4 | P a g e

Simulation Schedule
Sunday, November 13
1:00-1:45
Opening Ceremonies in Whitley Auditorium
1:45-2:15
Committee Orientation: Students join their committee members in

their assigned rooms and undergo an orientation/planning session
(Academic Pavilion)
2:15-5:00
Session I
5:00-6:30
Dinner Break with Chairs (optional)
6:30-9:00
Session II
9:00
Evening Dismissal
Monday, November 14
5:45-8:30
Session III
8:30-9:15
Closing Ceremonies: Students will hear about the state of the world at
the end of the conference and also receive committee and delegate
awards in Whitley Auditorium
5 | P a g e

Protocol and Dress Code

As a participant in the International Crisis Conference at Elon (I.C.C.E.), you will be responsible
for filling the position of a government official in one of nine international actors (USA, Russia,
Israel, Syria Assad, Syria Opposition, Iran, Turkey Erdogan, Turkey Military, and Kurdistan).
You will use your expertise in specific subject areas to help your country realize its foreign
policy objectives (as, for example, the minister of nuclear development, minister of education,
minister of foreign affairs, etc.). Thus, if your position is the Minister of Defense for Israel, you
should take interest in issues relating to national security or your countrys armed services and
should propose initiatives during committee sessions that directly relate to these issues/subjects
of interest. Saying that, your role in the simulation and in the committee is not strictly defined by
your position. The minister of education is free to craft policy relating to issue such as economic
cooperation or nuclear non-proliferation. Step out of your shoes and into those of your role and
you will surely make the most of this experience.
How does one go about crafting policies or passing actions within their committee? Committees
take action through what is known as an action order. Action orders are detailed descriptions
of an action a committee would like to take. These actions can take on many forms; they can be
covert or secretive, in which only the committee and the executive I.C.C.E. Staff know about the
proposed action (such as aiding Islamist organizations in Syria). Most actions, however, will be
public and will involve the implementation of a countrys foreign policy (ex. U.S. proposing
sanctions on the floor of the U.N. Security Council).
6 | P a g e


How are action orders proposed/passed? In order for an action order to be proposed, a delegate,
or a group of delegates, must write the proposed action on an action order form which will be
provided, including vital information such as: the action type (several word summary of the
action), whether the action is public or covert, the details of the action (how it will be
implemented), a press release meant to describe the action to the media (if the committee desires
such media interaction), and any additional comments required to make the proposal as clear as
possible. The student, or group of students, then introduces the action order to the committee and
if there is overwhelming support, the proposal gets submitted to I.C.C.E. staff electronically.
Delegate cooperation is highly valued and action orders that involve the collective expertise and
insight of several ministers will be taken more seriously. Saying that, disagreement and debate is
not discouraged.
What are the roles of the Model United Nations Society students working in the room with the
student delegates? Two to three Model United Nations Society students will lead each country
(the chair and one or two co-chairs). The chairs act as the heads of state or the leaders of their
countries. The co-chairs would represent another prominent official in your countrys
government. The chair is intended to guide the committee and its delegates through the
simulation. His/her job is not to direct you but to facilitate your attempts to craft policy and make
strategic maneuvers. He/she will be well versed in the history and politics of your country and be
prepared to guide you all in this simulation. If the actions you are proposing are simply not
7 | P a g e


realistic, your chair will inform you of this and guide you to more realistic ideas that will have
more positive results for your country. The chair has the final say over all committee decisions.
However, as previously mentioned, the chair serves as a guide not as a director. The co-chairs
primary function is to submit the approved action orders proposed by delegates electronically to
the I.C.C.E. staff and to relay messages to and from the committee to I.C.C.E. staff.
How do delegates see their actions play out on the international stage? This is achieved through
a live news feed that each committee room views through the projector system. When a country
submits an action order, depending on if it is covert or public, the action will be shared with the
international community in the form of a news story that is published by members of I.C.C.E.
staff.
Student participants should remember that diplomacy is one of the most important themes of the
simulation. If committees wish to meet with one another through private meetings they can do
this through a diplomatic meeting request and I.C.C.E. staff will thus facilitate this meeting.
Your chair and co-chairs will guide you in how to do this.
In terms of discussing ideas within the committee, the committee chairs will not require strict
parliamentary procedure or the usage of a formal speakers list. Instead, chairs will likely enforce
moderated caucus rules for speaking. For those of you that are unfamiliar with the term, it
implies that delegates are chosen to speak whenever they raise their hand or when debate seems
calm. In the ideal situation, there are no formal rules for discussion and debate and it is entirely
at the chairs discretion.
In terms of dress, each student is required to wear western business attire throughout the
simulation. Gentlemen, this means button down shirts, ties, dress slacks, and a sports jacket (if
you have one). Ladies, this means dress pants, dress skirts, or a formal business dress. All attire
should be appropriate and generally be at the knee level or longer. Neither spaghetti straps nor
sundresses are allowed. Closed toed professional shoes are required for all delegates, no flipflops, dress sandals or boots. Those who arrive to the simulation not wearing the appropriate
attire will be asked to return to their residences to change their clothes.
8 | P a g e

Special Thanks
On behalf of the I.C.C.E. planning staff, we would like to formally thank the
Political Science Department for their support that they have shown to the Model
United Nations Society in the conference over the last 10 years. We would like to
thank Dr. Blake, Dr. Kesgin, Dr. Kirk, and Dr. Shelton for their involvement in the
simulation through sending their students and Dr. Betty Morgan, the Political
Science Department Chair. An immense amount of thanks goes to Dr. Chalmers
Brumbaugh, MUN advisor, for his time and energy that is always put into this
simulation and his dealings with a group of a very devout, energetic, and dedicated
group of students.
Thank you to Elon University Student Government Association who have always
supported MUN and the conferences which we put on to provide an educating and
interactive learning experience for all those interested in politics and international
affairs.
Thank you once again!
Benjamin Lutz
Crisis Director
9 | P a g e

The United States of America

Historical Overview
The United States was the first Presidential Constitutional democracy and because of this they
have interventionist policies beginning with the Monroe Doctrine in 1823. This doctrine
established the United States as a regional hegemonic power. At the time, the United States was
growing in influence internationally and did not want pressure from European nations competing
for land and influence in the Americas. The United States influence increased drastically in
Central and South America. The greatest example of this is the US intervention in Cuba during
the Spanish-American War. Other examples of early US foreign policy in the Western
hemisphere include installing leaders in Venezuela and Nicaragua and supporting opposition
groups that were pro-democracy in Central and South American countries. The main goal for the
US in terms of foreign intervention is to advocate and install pro-democracy governments with
constitutions similar to their own.
The US has not been isolated to the western hemisphere. Beginning after the second World War,
the United States supported the idea of a Jewish state, which later became Israel, for the Jewish
people who survived the holocaust with no place to return to besides the holy land. Since then,
the United States has been a major advocate for Israel, supplying them with both economic and
military aid. Its not possible to talk about US intervention in the Middle East without talking
about the 1953 Coup in Iran that was organized by the CIA. The US successfully overthrew the
government and installed a pro-western, pro-American leader Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
The Shah ruled with an iron fist but was overthrown and replaced by an anti-western and antiAmerican religious leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. This plan continued of overthrowing leaders
and replacing them with pro-western leaders. These actions have lead to destabilization in the
Middle East and have created resentment toward the west for meddling in their domestic politics.
The best example of this is the Arab Spring starting with Tunisia on December 17, 2010. The
Arab Spring was the series of revolutions that took place between 2011 and 2012 that lead to: the
overthrow of three governments (Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen), civil wars in two (Libya, and the
ongoing conflict in Syria), and numerous nations where there were mass protests and their
governments responded in kind. These are interventions that the US has generally stayed out of
(with exceptions in Syria and Libya where America has regularly conducted airstrikes against the
government strongholds).
The United States also has a history in Iraq and Afghanistan. They involved themselves in Iraq
during the First Gulf War under George H.W. Bushs Presidency. They entered the Middle East
during that war because of Saddam Husseins invasion of Kuwait not ending by the middle of
1991. The actions of Saddam Hussein alarmed both the United States and other Middle Eastern
powers. These actions did not cease by the time George W. Bush came into power. The invasion
of Iraq to search for weapons of mass destruction lead to the ousting of Saddam Hussein and the
first democratic elections in Iraq in 2005. The War in Afghanistan began shortly after the attacks
on September 11th and ended officially in 2014. This began the Global War on Terror. The goal
of the invasion was to find those responsible for the attacks on September 11th.
10 | P a g e


Outside of the Middle East, the US is involved in tensions escalating in the Korean Peninsula
with North Korea continuing to test nuclear weapons against international treaties. The US
strongly condemns these actions carried out but with Chinas support of the North Koreans any
action done by the US via South Korea or China via North Korea has much larger implications.
The US obviously does not want nuclear power in North Korea but it is difficult for the US to
prevent that from happening since we have no official communication with the hermit state.
Foreign Policy Goals

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Ensure a free and fair election is held in Syria

End the fighting in Syria by coordinating with coalition forces
Destroy ISIL strongholds in Iraq and Syria
Ensure international law is followed in Turkey following the attempted coup
Prevent Russia from hacking US computer systems
Relations to the Crises

Syria
The United States has deplored the actions of the Assad regime since the start of the Syrian Civil
War. America has supported the Free Syrian Army and other resistance forces. The US continues
to carry out airstrikes against Assad strongholds but hopes for a peaceful solution to the Civil
War. The US hopes to see free and fair elections in the future and no military action taken
against the citizens of Syria. The US also hopes to see an eradication of the militant group ISIL.
They threaten democracy and peace in the Middle East and the world as a whole. Much of the
action taken by the Assad regime in terms of attacks on its citizens were originally done by
utilizing illegal chemical weapons. President Obama has talked about the creation of a red line
which the Syrian government cannot cross. President Obama defined our red line is if we start
seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. The use of these
weapons on innocent civilians is absolutely unacceptable. One of the largest threats to US
success in Syria is the Russian involvement. Russia is a strong ally of the Assad regime and will
not back down in their support. One thing both the US and Russia agree on is that ISIL is good
for neither country and they must be eliminated. Russia and the United States have signed
ceasefire agreements since their involvement via airstrikes, but these have yet to prove
successful.
Turkey
The goals of the United States are to keep a democratically elected government in power in
Turkey and to remain at peace with Turkey, while also making sure the Turkish Government is
acting within the rule of law. While many people have been imprisoned because of alleged
involvement in the Coup that occurred July 15 and 16, the US believes imprisoning and
questioning those persons should be done without acting in extrajudicial ways (i.e. arresting
those without a warrant or reasonable suspicion). America realizes that many of those in the
lower tiers of the military hierarchy were not aware that this was an attempted Coup. The US
also realizes that there were many people imprisoned immediately following that had no realistic
connection to the military and attempted Coup. Those at the highest levels of the military in
Turkey orchestrated the Coup and those individuals should be held accountable for their
treasonous actions. While the Turkish Government may believe Fethullah Gulen is involved in
the orchestration of the Coup, the United States has no reason to believe that there is any
involvement. Mr. Gulen is a Turkish national who has been living in Pennsylvania since 1999
11 | P a g e


after fleeing Turkey for being involved in alleged terrorist activities. The US, again, has no
reason to believe this is the case.
Relationships to the Other Committees

Russian Federation
The United States and Russia are arguably the two most powerful countries in the world. The
relationship between the two countries has always been turbulent from the time that the Second
World War ended. More recently, the United States has deplored the actions taken by Russia in
regards to their invasion of the Crimean peninsula, effectively taking the land from Ukraine and
re-establishing it as Russian territory. In regards to the Syrian Civil war, the United States is
supporting the opposition forces while Russia is supporting President Assad. The situation in
Syria has caused much turmoil between the two countries. The continuing escalation of airstrikes
being made by both countries has lead to numerous ceasefire agreements. The United States and
Russia do agree on the fact that ISIL is something that must be stopped. ISIL while technically
an opposition force threatens both Assad and pro-democratic opposition forces.
Israel
Israel is the undoubtedly closest ally of the United States in the Middle East. This has been true
for many years. That isnt to say that the US and Israel dont have their disagreements. The
Obama Administration signed the Iran nuclear deal, which was negatively received in Israel
because of their belief that a nuclear capable Iran would be likely to attack Israel. The Obama
Administration has also pushed for Palestinian statehood in the past and has urged Prime
Minister Netanyahu to accept the 1967 Israel/Palestine map that many believe to be a fair
allocation of land. In terms of aid, annually the US sends a package that has been roughly three
billion dollars for many years. The vast majority of this aid goes to subsidize their military
forces. Since 2008, no money has gone to Israel for economic development and very little has
gone to other parts of their government or economy. The US sells a fair amount of weapons and
defense items to Israel. The most prominent is the Iron Dome.
Syria Assad
The United States believes the actions of the Assad regime to be unacceptable. While this civil
war has been raging since 2011, the US has continued to support the opposition. The Assad
regime has continued to not have free elections. President Assads father, Hafiz al-Assad,
founded the ruling party in their Parliament and has been supportive of the Assad regime. On the
war-front the US has found evidence that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons to attack
the opposition. This is something that Syria agreed not to use in 1992. The uses of chemical
weapons on a nations own a citizen to quell an uprising is an action the US will never support.
President Obama has established a red line that he believes President Assad has crossed. That
line, being the chemical attacks on innocent civilians, has been crossed.
Syria Opposition
The United States supports the Syrian opposition. The US acknowledges that the actions of the
Assad regime are terrible and should be ended immediately. While ISIL is part of the opposition
technically, the US deplores their actions as well. They support all those who want to bring free
and fair elections to Syria so there are no rulers but rather representatives in the government. The
US has sent arms and financial support to opposition forces like the Free Syrian Army. Our
12 | P a g e


support for opposition forces has also come in the forms of airstrikes and shows of military force
against ISIL and Assad forces and strongholds.
Iran
The United States and Iran have a turbulent history. In 1979 there was the Iranian Hostage crisis
where 52 American diplomats were held hostage for 444 days. The United States also, in 1953,
organized the overthrow of the then leader and replaced with the Shah. The Shah was an
incredibly useful leader until 1979 but there was another Coup that ousted the Shah and replaced
him with the Ayatollah Khomeini who was a very anti-American leader. During the Obama
Administration relations have not been great but the greatest accomplishment between the two
countries was the Iran Nuclear Deal. This allows for Iran to continue utilizing a nuclear power
grid so long as they do not create nuclear weapons. This, while a success for both countries, was
met with opposition from other countries as well as people within the US and Iran. Recently,
President Obama announced that the US is wiring 400 million dollars to Iran that had been held
for years. This was done in accordance with the Iran Nuclear Deal.
Turkey Erdogan
Despite Turkey being a member of NATO and a historical ally in the Middle East bridging the
gap between the East and West, the relationship has begun to strain. Turkey has allowed the US
to use airbases in the east of the country in order to more easily attack the ISIL strongholds.
Turkey recently began firing missiles into ISIL territory and they have proved to be useful in the
fight against ISIL. This however has not been enough to keep from relations from straining.
Recently, President Obama refused to meet with President Erdogan during a visit to the United
States in early 2016. In regards to the attempted Turkish coup dtat, the United States has
condemned the actions of the Turkish Military for attempting to overthrow the democratically
elected government. President Erdogan has suggested that a Turkish national, Fethullah Gulen,
living in exile in Pennsylvania was behind the attempted Coup. Fethullah Gulen is said to be
involved with terrorist activities and has been forced to move abroad in exile to keep himself
from being persecuted at home. The United States does not believe that there is a correlation to
the terrorist activities he is said to be involved in and actual terrorist activities. President
Erdogan has requested that the US extradite him back to Turkey so that he may face trial.
Turkish Military
The United States deplored the actions of the Turkish Military in the recent attempted Coup. The
United States has always been focused on increasing democracy in the world so that everyones
voice can be heard. The US supports governments that truly represent their people, not just rule.
Turkey has a democratically elected parliament and President and the actions of the military in
Turkey are intolerable. While we may have our disagreements with the Turkish government on
certain issues, we support their democracy wholeheartedly and any attempts to overthrow that
government will be met with swift opposition from the United States.
Kurdistan
The US has supported an independent state for the Kurds since the fall of the Ottoman Empire in
1920. While the Kurds got some land, they were not given statehood. There have been points in
US history where there has been little talk of or about the Kurds but that support generally still
exists. The rise of Saddam Hussein and the oppression attacks of the Kurds lead the United
13 | P a g e


States to intervene on their behalf. The US support began when President Sadaam Hussein began
to gas the Kurds living in northern Iraq in order to quell opposition and uprisings. President
George H.W. Bush believed this to be unacceptable and intervened on behalf of the Kurds who
couldnt defend themselves. The US made it their mission to defend the Kurds even when other
countries may not. Some of those other countries include our ally, Turkey, and other Middle
Eastern nations.
14 | P a g e

Russian Federation
Historical Overview
The Russian Federation is a federal semi-presidential constitutional republic that spans across
Europe and Asia. Russia is the largest country in the world in terms of land, and has the
fourteenth largest national economy in the world, based mostly on petroleum, natural gas, and
weapons.
After the rise of communism in Russia, Russia became entangled in a civil war between the
communist government and republican rebels. The latter were crushed in 1923. The communists
created the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) the worlds first communist state ,
which was committed to Marxism-Leninism and a planned economy. Before the beginning of the
Second World War in 1939, the Soviet Union and Germany signed a non-aggression pact. The
two nations then both took part in the invasion of Poland, which marked the beginning of the
war. Germany later betrayed the Soviet Union and invaded in 1941. The Red Army repelled the
invaders and went on to defeat the Germans, ultimately taking Berlin in 1945.
Following WWII, the Soviet Union established a series of closely allied satellite states in Eastern
Europe, including East Germany, Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria.
Nikita Khrushchev then oversaw the Soviet victories in the Space Race, with the Soviets
launching the first satellite, Sputnik, and the first human in space, Yuri Gagarin. Relations with
the West improved in the 1970s with the signing of the Strategic Arms Limitations Talks, the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. However, tensions rose
again after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 with the United States funneling weapons
and funds to Afghan mujahedeen fighters.
In 1988, Mikhail Gorbachev became the General Secretary of the Communist Party and began to
institute certain reforms. He created greater governmental transparency and promoted economic
liberalism in the Soviet Union. In 1991, hardline communists attempted a coup dtat against
Gorbachev. Gorbachev later saw this coup attempt as a sign to dissolve the Soviet Union and
resigned as President.
Russia was proclaimed to be the successor state of the Soviet Union. The democratic government
oversaw privatization of state assets, as well as rapid market liberalization. Russias economy
took nearly ten years to recover from the stagnation brought on by the dissolution of the Soviet
Union. In 1999, President Boris Yeltsin resigned, leaving the Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as
the acting president. Putin later won the presidential election the following year. Putin
suppressed the Chechen rebellion and helped the economy steadily grow through consumption
and investments. Since 1999, Putin has remained in power either as President or Prime Minister.
Along with Putin, one other man has joined him in dominating the government: Dmitry
Medvedev. Both men have served as President and Prime Minister. Currently, Putin serves as
President, and Medvedev serves as Prime Minister. Since Putins rise to power, the siloviki have
become the main domineers of political life. The siloviki are politicians with backgrounds in
military and security services, such as the Federal Security Service and Federal Drug Control.
The siloviki also comprise of former members of Soviet bureaucratic agencies like the
Committee for State Security, or KGB. Top government officials like Putin, former Minister of
15 | P a g e


Defense Sergei Ivanov, and the current Director of the Federal Security Service Alexander
Bortnikov are all former KGB agents.
Russia, wanting to keep the nations of the former Soviet Union within its sphere of influence,
improved relations with Ukraine under President Viktor Yanukovych. Hes considered the most
pro-Russian, neo-Soviet president in Ukrainian history. The straw that broke the camels back
was Yanukovychs refusal to sign an agreement with the European Union in 2013 that would
have established a political and economic association between them, despite most Ukrainians
being in favor of closer relations with the EU. Yanukovych instead favored the Customs Union
of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan as an alternative. In 2014, Yanukovych fled to Russia as a
result of the imminent revolution, prompting Putin to deploy Russian troops to Ukraine, taking
over the Crimean Peninsula and Donbass in Eastern Ukraine, where Russia has higher
favorability rates.

The Russian Federation protects its allies around the world using any means possible, including
standing against the United States. The Russian government has consistently assisted the
administration of President Bashar al-Assad of the Syrian Arab Republic in the defeating of
opposition forces within the country, as well as foreign agitators collectively known as the
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The Russian military assists the Syrian government
primarily through airstrikes against anti-government groups and ISIL, but does have about 4,000
troops on the ground. It is in the best interest of Russia for the region to remain destabilized,
because a destabilized Middle East would make many weak nations in the region dependent on
Russian arms and oil/gas.
It is also in the best interest of Russia to maintain influence over the nations of the former Soviet
Union, and to uphold the annexation of Crimea as both a legal and justified transferal of power
and territory. Furthermore, Russia must continue its membership in the BRICS partnership with
Brazil, India, China, and South Africa. BRICS is the association of the five premier emerging
economies in the world. The progress of the BRICS nations, however, has slowed recently due to
general economic stagnation among the member states, including Brazils recession, rising oil
prices and sanctions placed on Russia, and Chinas impending economic slowdown in the wake
of its steel boom.

Syria
Russia has consistently used their veto power in the United Nations Security Council in regards
to resolutions about the Syrian Civil War to prevent sanctions or military action. Starting in
2015, Russia has been conducting airstrikes against anti-government forces and ISIL strongholds
in Syria. Russia argues that the people of Syria democratically elected President Bashar alAssad, and Assads conduct during the war to defeat Islamist rebels and stabilize the country has
been justified. Russia has about 4,000 troops in Syria, as well as other military assets like naval
vessels and aircraft. Since 2015, Russia has taken an active part in the Syrian Civil War,
defending the al-Assad administration by performing airstrikes on anti-government and ISIL
strongholds. Russia has made it clear that al-Assad will remain in power in Syria, most likely so
the Syrian government will continue to purchase Russian weapons. The Russian military has
16 | P a g e


concentrated most of its Syrian efforts to the area around Homs, and has been successful in
stabilizing Assads government.
Turkey
Relations with Turkey were warm before the military coup attempt in July of 2016. However,
after the coup attempt, Presidents Erdogan and Putin were quick to continue in their process of
reconciliation after the shooting of the Russian bomber in 2015. Representatives of the Turkish
government have said that Turkey has received the unconditional support of Russia after the
coup attempt. Both presidents have blamed Western meddling for the coup attempt, bringing
Turkey and Russia together. The crackdown that Erdogan has instigated in the wake of the coup
attempt has strained relations with other member states of NATO, further bringing Turkey into
Russias fold. Erdogans crackdowns have been addressed by Russia, but not criticized. It is in
Russias best interest to have President Erdogan weaken the Turkish military, which leaves
Russia as the more powerful military power in the region. On 10 October 2016, Russia and
Turkey signed off on a deal to construct the Turkish Stream pipeline. Previously, Russia would
have to build pipelines through Ukraine in order to deliver gas to Europe. However, the Turkish
Stream undersea pipeline will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine, delivering gas to Turkey, later to
be distributed amongst European Union members.

United States of America
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, relations with the United States somewhat normalized,
with Russia providing little resistance to US and Western intervention in Iraq in 1991. With
Russias economy stabilized under Putin, Russia has assumed their place as a global power,
asserting their will in the United Nations Security Council and other forums of global politics,
thus reviving tensions. Relations with the United States have become strained, bordering on
hostile after several recent Russian hacking attempts. The Russian Federations annexation of
Crimea and the following American and European sanctions placed on Russia have severely
injured the Russian economy, and both the United States and Russia have thrown their support
behind opposing factions in the Syrian Civil War.
Israel
The Russian Federation maintains generally warm relations with the Israel. After Hebrew and
Arabic, Russian is the third most widely spoken language in Israel due to the large communities
of Russian Jews that migrated from the Soviet Union in the 1970s, and again in the 1990s.
Vladimir Putin supported Israel during the controversial execution of Operation Protective Edge
in 2014, where the Israeli Defense Forces entered the Gaza Strip after the kidnapping and murder
of three Israeli teenagers. Israel is also a major trade partner of Russias, with Israel mostly
exporting fruit and meat products. In return, Russia has become Israels largest supplier of crude
oil. Furthermore, Israel and Russia frequently collaborate militarily, with Israel supplying Russia
with drones to be used in Syria and Ukraine.
Syria Assad
The Russian Federations relationship with the Syrian Arab Republic extends back to Syrias
founding as an independent nation. The Soviet government agreed to lend support to Syria in
1944 when the French initially agreed to withdraw from the country. Relations vastly improved
in 1971 with a coup dtat that brought Hafez al-Assad to the presidency. Syria and the Soviet
17 | P a g e


Union signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1980, which still remains in effect.
Russia has consistently used their veto power in the United Nations Security Council in regards
to resolutions about the Syrian Civil War to prevent sanctions or military action.
Russia has one naval base on the Mediterranean Syrian port of Tartus, an air force base in
Palmyra, Syria, and an espionage center in Al-Harra, a Syrian town close to the Golan Heights,
near the Syrian border with Israel.
Syrian Opposition
Starting in 2015, the Russian Federation has been conducting airstrikes against anti-government
forces. Russia intends to keep Bashar al-Assad in power in Syria as a key ally in Western Asia.
Russia is adamant about President al-Assad remaining in power in order to maintain calm and
peaceful relations with Russias biggest ally in the Middle East. Russia has also stood in the way
of progress for the Syrian Opposition in a diplomatic sense, with Russia and China vetoing any
Security Council resolutions that may place sanctions on Syria, or even denounce President alAssad for targeting civilians and restricting humanitarian aid.
Iran
Both the Russian Federation and the Iran share several foreign policy goals. Most importantly,
both states aim to limit the political influence of the United States, specifically in Western and
Central Asia. In regard to the Syrian Civil War, both states are actively trying to curtail the
efforts of the Syrian Opposition and ISIL. Iran is an observer to the economic, political and
military pact known as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which Russia is a member
and Turkey is considered a dialogue partner. Russia and Iran are also founding members of the
Gas Exporting Countries Forum. The aircraft, armored vehicles, and missile systems of the
Iranian Military are primarily Russian-made. Iran has also frequently criticized Russia when the
Russian government gives into demands by Western nations for additional economic sanctions to
be placed on Iran. Russia, therefore, openly supported the ratification of the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action, known colloquially as the Iran Nuclear Deal. Russia most likely favors the deal
because of its lifting of sanctions on Iran. Both President Putin and the Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov agree that the deal will favorably affect the current situation in the Middle East. As a
permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, Russia was one of the parties to the
deals negotiations in Vienna.
Turkey Erdogan
The relationship between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey is a turbulent one.
Russians and Turks were commonly seen as enemies due to the Russian Empire/Soviet Union
and the Ottoman Empire/Turkeys competing efforts to expand their spheres of influence to the
Black Sea area and the Balkans. There was a brief period of friendship shortly before and during
the Second World War. When Turkey joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in
1952, Turkey placed itself in alliance with the West and in opposition to the Warsaw Pact
nations under the control of the Soviet Union. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, relations
between Russia and Turkey have become cordial, as seen by the fact that Russia provides Turkey
with most of its power, and many Turkish companies have begun to operate within Russia.
That cordiality was disrupted on November 24, 2015 when a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down a
Russian Sukhoi Su-24M bomber near the Turkish-Syrian border. In response, the Russian
government issued sanctions on Turkey, including travel bans and additional regulations on
18 | P a g e


Turkish products. One member of the Russian Federation Council even proposed making
Armenian Genocide denial a criminal act in response to the incident. Ties between Russia and
Turkey have begun to normalize since the incident, with Russia lifting many of its sanctions in
July and August 2016. President Erdogan has expressed regret regarding the Russian bomber.
Russias ban on commercial and charter flights to Turkey has since been lifted. Relations still
remain somewhat tense after Erdogans support for the Syrian Opposition was made public.
Russias actions regarding Turkey are a little unclear, with Russia militarily supporting the
Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (PYD), which Turkey claims is an extension of the outlawed
Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). In regards to Ukraine, the Erdogan government in Turkey
refuses to recognize Russias annexation of Crimea, calling it Crimeas Occupation.
Turkish Military
Despite Russias mixed views on Turkey, Russia sees any attempt to overthrow the existing
government as illegal, and any government established in the wake of a coup dtat as
illegitimate. Russia does not wish to intervene militarily, but will offer support to the Erdogan
government in times of political turmoil.
Kurdistan
The Russian Federation is home to a large Kurdish population. However, because of close ties to
Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, parts of which Kurdistan is made up of, the Russian government has
consistently refused to support Kurdish separatism, and therefore currently does not recognize
Kurdistan as an independent nation. The Russian government, however, has not ruled out the
possibility of future statehood for the Kurds. Therefore, in order to maintain both cordial ties
with the Assad government and Kurdish military support against ISIL, Russia would rather
militarily support the Kurds in the fight against ISIL rather than openly endorse Kurdish
statehood.
19 | P a g e

Israel
Historical Overview
The Israeli state was formalized following a UN partitioning in 1948 after Britain relinquished its
stake in Palestine. In 1987 Palestinians inhabiting the West Bank and Gaza Strip protested Israeli
military rule in what is known as the intifada. The intifada occurred after Palestinians were killed
at a traffic stop, and rumors spread that Israelis deliberately committed the murders. This led to a
couple years of Palestinian rebellion, a strong sense of nationalism among Palestinians, and
eventually the birth of the Sunni fundamentalist group Hamas. Both Israel and the United States
have deemed Hamas a terrorist group.
Israel engaged in bilateral negotiations with Palestine during the Madrid Peace Conference of
1991. United States President George H.W. Bush hosted the conference in partnership with
Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev with the goal of ending Arab-Israeli conflicts. This was
the first time Israel, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel and Syria had all met at the same
negotiating table. Many negotiations have since followed.
The Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995 laid the foundations for peace for Israel and Palestine based
on a two state solution i.e. a clear definition of borders, and autonomous rule for each party.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestine Liberation
Organization signed the 1993 peace agreement at the White House. The agreement called for the
establishment of a Palestinian Authority, which would, over the course of five years, gain
governing responsibilities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The United States pledged its
commitment to helping Israel and Palestine see their agreement through. However, the peace
agreements fell apart before the end of President Clintons term. The Oslo II Accords followed in
1995. With the Oslo II Accords, Israel and Palestine agreed to divide control of the West Bank
and to increase cooperation between their two countries.
The Oslo II Accords were short lived as an Israeli who opposed the peace deal assassinated
Prime Minister Rabin later that year. The Hamas Jaffa Road bus bombings followed in 1996 an
election year for Israel. Current Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu took office in 1996
as a representative of the Likud Party, which was anti-Palestinian statehood. Disagreements and
fighting have continued in the years since the Accords. In October, Shimon Peres died. He
served as prime minister and was the 9th president of Israel. He was a key contributor to the Oslo
Peace Accords.
Recently, Israel is building settlements near Jordan on land that would be claimed by Palestine if
a peace agreement were reached. International actors including the United States and the United
Nations have asked Israel to halt the construction project, calling it a provocative act.

Peace with Palestine - Israel and Palestine have a turbulent past. Both claim hold to the West
Bank, Gaza Strip, and Jerusalem, though Israel currently occupies these disputed areas. Israel
will not jeopardize its national security and dominance for the sake of securing this peace. Israel
and Palestine are consistently confrontational as both parties hold claim to the Gaza Strip. The
Gaza Strip, which is home to 1.8 million people, is located on the Egyptian-Israeli border.
20 | P a g e


Hamas has governed the region since 2007, but Israel has military control of the region. This
dichotomy has caused tension for nearly forty years.
Iron Dome - The Iron Dome is a military air defense system. Since its introduction in 2011 the
Iron Dome has protected Israel from rockets and artillery shells fired from up to 45 miles away.
The United States helped fund this defense system, which Israel primarily uses to thwart attacks
by Palestine-based terrorist groups. The Iron Dome has proven useful during the Syrian conflict.
In September 2016, Israel reportedly used the Iron Dome to protect itself from rockets launched
in Syria. Israel is not directly participating in the Syrian conflict, but its geographic proximity
makes it susceptible to instances of unintentional involvement.
End to the Conflict in Syria - The Syrian conflict has caused instability in the region. This
instability undermines Israeli security. Israels Golan Front has been especially vulnerable during
the Syrian conflict. Syria is also a hotspot for radical factions that pose a threat to Israel. Peace in
Syria means a more stable Israel.
Reinforce Diplomatic Ties with Turkey - Turkeys stability is important to Israel, as the two
nations can work together against ISIL. Israel and Turkey signed a reconciliation agreement in
June, bringing an end to 6 years of hostility.

Syria
Syria shares Israels Northeastern border. ISIL (The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is a
jihadist Sunni militant group based in Syria. It is an offshoot of al-Qaeda and has territorial
claims throughout the region), al-Qaeda subsidiary Jabhat al-Nursa, Hezbollah, and the FSA
occupy this border, which is known as the Golan Front. Additionally, Israel wants to prevent Iran
(and indirectly Islamic militants) from gaining a foothold in Syria. To accomplish this goal,
Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Vladimir Putin have engaged in strategic talks
concerning Israels shared airspace with Syria, Israels technology, and the overall goal of
halting the spread of radical Islam. Despite these talks, Israel has remained largely uninvolved in
the Syrian civil war and insists that the United States is its primary ally. Israel does not have
diplomatic ties with the Assad regime.
Turkey
In 2010, Israel raided a Turkish aid flotilla, killing eight Turkish citizens and one American. In
June 2016, Israel and Turkey reached an agreement that resolved the dispute between the two
countries over the incident. Israel will pay $20 million to the families of the Turkish victims and
Turkey will build facilities on the Gaza Strip. Prior to the 2010 incident, Turkey was Israels
strongest regional ally. There was an attempted military coup in Turkey in July 2016. The
Turkish government has since declared a state of emergency. The attempted coup failed due to
lack of mass public support. Many blame Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen for the attack. He lives
in Pennsylvania, and for this reason among others, many Turkish citizens believe the United
States played a role in the attempted coup. Turkish officials predict the attempted coup will
speed up the normalization of relations between Turkey and Israel. The two countries signed a
reconciliation agreement in June, after being at odds with each other for 6 years. Israel is
committed to helping Turkey stabilize, as Turkey is a potential partner in the fight against ISIL.
21 | P a g e


United States
The United States of America has maintained extremely strong ties with Israel since its
inception. The United States has proven its strong relationship with Israel both through foreign
aid (over 3 billion given annually, mostly in military aid) and through domestic policy, where the
relationship with Israel is a major hot button issue for presidential candidates. Israel provides the
United States a staunch ally in a region where it is lacking many strong allies, and Israel enjoys
the protection given by the United States as the largest military in the world. Recently, in
October the United States pledged $38 billion in military aid to Israel.
Russian Federation
Russia and Israel have formal diplomatic ties. Many Russian Jews have historically immigrated
to Israel en masse, with the most recent influx following the fall of the Soviet Union. However,
Russias relationship with Syria has been a point of contention, especially since Russia has been
arming Assad. Weapons include drones, guided bombs, armored vehicles, weapons and military
supplies including surveillance equipment. Russia has also contributed to airstrikes in Aleppo.
Syria Assad
Israel and Syria never established diplomatic relations, and the countries fought each other in
numerous wars. Syria threatened to intervene in the 2006 Lebanon War on behalf of Hezbollah,
and provided support and a conduit for Iranian weapons to the organization. In 2013, a number
of Israeli airstrikes within Syria were reported, allegedly carried out to prevent Syria from
supplying weapons and military technology to Hezbollah.
Syria Opposition
Some members of the Syrian opposition have called on Israel to play a role in peace
negotiations, hinting at a Syrian-Israeli peace if Assad were removed from power. However, the
rising influence of Islamist groups within the Syrian opposition will undoubtedly prove
detrimental to these efforts. Israel has remained largely quiet on issues concerning the Syrian
opposition, although Israel has been quietly treating victims of the civil war in some of its
hospitals on the Israeli-Syrian border.
Iran
Israel and Iran have not had diplomatic or commercial ties since the 1979 Revolution in Iran
when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty. Irans government does not recognize
Israel as a state or its right to exist, and refers to its government as the Zionist regime. Iran has
strong ties with the Assad regime in Syria, selling them weapons in the guise of humanitarian
aid. Iran has tried to use relations with Syria to destabilize the Middle East and threaten Israel.
Iran is the most openly anti-Israel of any country in the region. Irans intelligence wing is known
as the Quds Force, which translates to Jerusalem Force. Its main focus is to bring down Israel.
Despite the perceived moderation of the new Iranian leadership under Rouhani, Prime Minister
Netanyahu has expressed serious doubts about the new Presidents sincerity and willingness to
comply with the JCPOA (the formal title of the Iran nuclear deal).
Turkey Erdogan
Relations between Turkey and Israel were very strong until the late 2000s, and Turkey was the
first Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel as a state in 1949. When Erdogans Justice and
22 | P a g e


Development Party (AKP) took power in 2002, relations remained stable until the 2008-2009
Gaza War, which prompted condemnation of Israel from the Turkish government. Relations have
been gradually declining since, with increased closeness between the Erdogan regime and Hamas
and continued condemnation of Israeli actions from Turkish leaders. There was an attempted
military coup in Turkey in July 2016. The Turkish government has since declared a state of
emergency.
Turkey Military
Starting in 2007, Israel began collaborating with the Turkish military through arms sales and
defense modernization. However, these defense contracts were suspended in 2011 following
diplomatic failures and the Turkish governments increased dissatisfaction with Israel's military
actions and policy in the region.
Kurdistan
While Israel has no official relations with Iraqi Kurdistan, Israel has a history of supporting the
Kurds and many Jews in the country are sympathetic to their plight. Several Israeli politicians,
including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, have
publicly advocated for the establishment of a Kurdish state.
23 | P a g e

Syria Assad
Historical Overview
Before the Assad regime took power, the roots of Syrias political turmoil began under centuries
of foreign occupation. Originally held under the Ottoman Empire for over 400 years, the
tremulous power struggles of early Syria began when Syria transitioned to French rule in the
1920s. After being occupied by the Axis Powers in 1940 during World War II, Syria faced reoccupation by the Free French troops. French troops officially left Syria in 1946, five years after
General De Gaul promised withdrawal.
The rise of the Baath party began almost immediately after French occupation. Founded by
Syrian Teacher Michel Aflaq under radical nationalist principles, the slogan of unity, freedom,
and socialism attracted young Syrian hopefuls with promises of a modern industrialist economy
and the avoidance of a Euro-Centric government. To become a more competitive force, Aflaq
partnered with Arab Socialist Akram Hawrani to form the Arab Socialist Baath Party in 1953.
With strong leadership from both parties, the new coalition proved to be a formidable alliance
that became difficult to oppose. When Syria joined the United Arab Republic in 1958 along with
Egypt, UAR leader and Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser abolished political parties in
Syria. In 1961, the Baath Party orchestrated a military-lead coup against the UAR in Damascus.
Amin al-Hafez was named president and a civilian-staffed government was placed in power.
In 1965, a military coup against the civilian leadership within the Baath Party replaced civilian
leaders with military officials. Amin al-Hafez was overthrown and Salah al-Din al-Bitar and
Michel Aflaq were arrested. Civilian officials and Aflaq supporters were forced to flee the
country, many settling in Iraq. Aflaq gained power alongside Saddam Hussein in Iraq after a
1968 coup that established the prominence of Iraqi Baath Party.
Hafez al-Assads rise to power began when he became Defense Minister in the new military-led
Baath regime. Assad eventually seized power in 1970 coup that dethroned president Nur al-Din
al-Atasi. Hafez-al Assad was elected as president in a 1971 plebiscite, an emergency electoral
vote. Riots ensued in 1973 after Assad signed in a law removing the clause requiring the
president to be a Muslim, which implied that Assad was leading an atheist government. In 1980,
Assad survived an assassination attempt claimed by the Muslim Brotherhood. Throughout Hafez
al-Assads rule, he notably cracked down on insurgent groups through raising loyal, pro-Baath
Party cohorts and using trusted militias to force rebels out of major cities. Throughout his
regime, Assad was accused of incurring massive civilian casualties in attempts to combat
insurgency. After Hafez-al Assads death in 2000, Bashar al-Assad attempted and failed to
imitate his fathers successful counter-insurgency strategies.
The second son of Hafez-al Assad, Bashar al-Assad unexpectedly became next in line for the
presidency upon the accidental death of his older brother and expected heir Basil al-Assad. Upon
Hafez al-Assads death in 2000, the national legislature approved a constitutional amendment
that changed the minimum age of the president from 40 to 34. Bashars was 34 at the time of the
election. Bashar-al Assad ran for the Presidency unopposed and was subsequently elected. In
promising show of reform, Assad began his term by loosening restrictions on the press/public
free speech and releasing hundreds of political prisoners. However, within a span of a few
months of election, Assad soon proved to be a mirror image of his fathers heavy-handed
24 | P a g e


political and military strategies. Assad ran for reelection in 2007 and won almost unanimously,
despite facing significant political opposition.

The overall goal of the Assad regime is to regain power and control over all of Syria and to
defeat ISIL. They Syrian civil war began around the end of 2010 and early 2011 when the Arab
spring took over the Middle East and Northern Africa. Assad is very opposed to this revolution
and has taken action against the opposition in his own country, which poses a threat to his
regime.
1. To begin, we want to win over Aleppo as it is a major city and has a lot of resources
available. Aleppo is a major city and is currently split between the regime and the
opposition. This city is vital in the takeover for the Assad regime because it can
determine the rest of the war. This will be a major feat for the regime because it will
prevent the opposition from gaining resources that they really need.
2. Another major goal is to secure Damascus and neutralize the opposition in these areas.
Damascus is the capital city of Syria and had been heavily militarized since the beginning
of the civil war. This has been a high point of tension for the opposition and Assad needs
to maintain control over this area.
3. The Assad Regime also wants to secure areas other key cities, such as Homs and Hama.
4. Secure relations with the surrounding Middle East and rejoin the Arab League and restore
national security.
5. In regards to ISIL, Assad is deeply troubled by the creation of ISIL and the harm they are
causing and he hopes for a quick solution.

Syria
Political unrest began to stir in 2011 after Syrians were inspired by positive political revolutions
happening in the surrounding Middle East/North Africa, later known as the Arab Spring. Assad
responded to protests simultaneously with promises of political reform and violence. Despite
international outcry, Assads military forces were deployed to major cities, the center of early
protests, and responded to protestors with lethal force. Within a span of a few months, several
armed opposition forces within Syria emerged to resist Assads cohort. In 2012, the Syrian
conflict is officially labeled a civil war. In the Middle East, sides are quickly takes as Turkey,
Qatar, and Saudi Arabia fund Syrian opposition groups and Hezbollah and Iran publically aid the
Syrian Government. In the course of the five-year conflict, over 250,000 Syrians have died and
over 4.5 million have fled the country. Currently, after a three-year stalemate ridden with civilian
casualties and extremist organizations, the Assad regime has seized multiple key cities, including
Darya, a Damascus suburb. Reports indicate that the Assad regime is poised to occupy Aleppo.
International bodies have made several attempts to intervene in the crisis as reports came in 2013
of Assad allegedly using chemical weapons against civilians. In the height of attempts to
persuade the Assad regime to end violence, Syria is suspended from the Arab League.
Turkey
Kurdistan fighters have joined the Syrian Opposition and are providing substantial forces against
the Assad Regime. Turkey, facing national security threats, is focused on keeping ISIL and the
Kurds away form Turkish borders. In order to do so, Turkey has initiated airstrikes against ISIL,
25 | P a g e


which coincidentally has additionally hit Kurdish Forces. The United States and other
international forces have expressed concern on Turkeys motives in getting involved in the
Syrian Civil War.

United States
Official relations between the United States of America and Syria are non-existent. US
leadership cites alleged human rights violations, including chemical warfare, as the main reason
for their disinterest in maintaining a relationship with the Assad Regime. In 2014, the United
States initially airdropped aid of food and water to Syrian civilians and opposition groups but has
now escalated to providing ammunition and training to Syrian rebels. In an embarrassing failure,
the United States attempted to train around 5,000 Syrian Opposition members in combat, but
failed to successfully organize and implement troops. The US implemented airstrikes in
solidarity with an international coalition against ISIL. Barack Obama made official statements
denouncing the Assad Regime and requesting Bashar al-Assad to step down from the presidency.
Russian Federation
Russia has not condemned the actions of Assad and has thus far been supportive of him and his
regime. Russia has provided military support and resources to Assad and his regime. Recently
Russia has been performing airstrikes on Aleppo in support of the Assad regime but has also
caused international tensions. Russia also has a military base and a naval base located in Tartus
in Syria. This is where they have been sending a lot of military support. Russia has also been
selling weapons to Syria as well as providing economic support. Russia also occupies an air
force base in Palmyra, Syria and an espionage center in Al-Harra, a Syrian town close to the
Golan Heights, near the Syrian border with Israel.
Israel
Since the establishment of the Israel, the two states have been in a continuous state of war. Syria
has constantly opposed Israel through involvement in major military conflicts like the Six-Day
War, Yom Kippur War as well as indirect involvement by publically aiding Lebanon and
Palestine to combat Israel. Syria has consistently opposed Israeli military action, and continues
to demand that Golan Heights be returned to Syria. Israel and Syria share almost no economic or
cultural ties. Israel has publically declared them neutral in the civil war. Recent reports indicate
that the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) has provided medical aid to Syrian Rebels and citizens on
the border of Golan Heights.
Syria Opposition
The Assad Regime and the Syrian Opposition are locked in a brutal civil war. For five years, the
Syrian landscape has been destroyed by airstrikes and ground battles, and millions of citizens are
displaced as a result of the conflict. The Syrian Opposition is composed of many separate groups
of varying extremism. Some of the prominent groups include the Supreme Council of the Free
Syrian Army, Islamic Front, Jaysh al-Islam and Suqour al-Sham. The Islamic State of Iraq and
the Levant (ISIL) is also currently stationed in Syria and has continued to accumulate members,
including foreign nationals committed to ISILs mission of jihad.
26 | P a g e


Iran
In accordance with Syria and Irans extensive alliance, Iran has continued to be the strongest
supporter of the Assad Regime. Iran dispatched troops to train and back up Assads forces, and
provided economic and military aid. In a significant show of support, the Iranian government
deployed the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to advise Assad military officials and
provide backup assistance. In addition, Iran has provided shared technology and oil resources
with the Assad Regime.
Turkey Erdogan
Fresh off of a failed attempted coup against his rule from the Turkish Military, Erdogans
administration is concerned with Turkeys domestic safety. In light of sharing a 750-mile border
with Syria and Iran, Erodgans main concern is to prevent ISIL from entering Turkey on both
sides and to monitor and stop Kurdish militants from invading Turkish land. Erdogan considers
the YPG a terrorist organization. Recent statements by Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yldrm
caused Syrian Opposition to raise concern, claiming that Yldrms words implied a possible
move towards collaboration with the Assad Regime. Yldrm denied the allegations and stated
that Turkey continues to demand that Assad gives up power.
Turkey Military
Recovering from the recent failed uprising led by high ranking military officials, the Turkey
Military is currently focused on rebuilding its ranks and remaining active in Syria. Turkey has
provided troops and assistance to the Syrian Opposition since the beginning of the civil war, and
is currently housing large quantities of Syrian refugees.
Kurdistan
The Kurds are a small minority group in Syria, Iran and in the outskirts of Turkey. Kurdish
military forces are actively supporting and fighting with multiple Syrian Opposition groups. The
Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG) is partnered with Syrian Democratic Forces, a Syrian
Opposition Group backed by the United States. Kurdistan is attempting to help Syrian
Opposition topple the Assad Regime while attempting to occupy Turkish land. The YPG claims
Erdogans regime has entered the conflict as an excuse to attack the YPG without officially
declaring war, rather than actually fight ISIL.
27 | P a g e

Syria Opposition
Historical Overview
The Syrian Opposition movement began during the Arab Spring of 2011. After a wave of
democratic sentiment had toppled authoritarian and dictatorial governments in both Egypt and
Libya, the Syrian people demanded that the Assad regime give more freedoms, less government
restriction, and a more just rule. Tensions in Syria exploded when the Assad regime arrested and
tortured teenagers for anti-Assad graffiti. Torturing minors is a violation of human rights in the
view of the international community. This unjust torture created the Syrian Opposition
movement, but not the rebel factions that are currently engaged with the Assad regime in
Syria. This movement was peaceful.
Tens of thousands of people took to the streets demanding that Bashar al-Assad and his Baath
parties immediately step down from power. At one of the many protests across the country,
security forces opened fire on the group of protesters killing 15 people. These extrajudicial
executions of peaceful protesters sparked even greater protests against the Assad regime, which
in turn caused the deaths of more protesters and even Assads security forces. The regime
responded with military deployment to quell and silence the people for expressing their opinions
against the repressive regime. After Assad used tanks and armored vehicles to crack down on
one particularly large protest, people rose up in arms against the governmental forces. What
began with an attack on a party headquarters and overthrow of a police station, slowly turned
into countrywide rebellion. As the government continued to disperse on protests with military
force, more and more members of the military defected to the cause of the Opposition. Three of
these opposition groups formed what would be known as the Free Syrian Army. The FSA would
become the main arm of the rebellion. This group of united opposition forces formed the Syrian
National Council, which would be the unofficial government arm of the Syrian Opposition.
From 2012 onward, the war raged on. The rebels, verbally backed by neighboring Middle
Eastern states and Western Powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom, made
massive gains against the government. This included the takeover of many major population
centers in the north and south of the country as well as along the western coast of the nation. The
government retained firm control of the western center of the nation. Over the following three
years, the war was a battle of attrition. The opposition would gain ground in certain areas while
losing ground the Assad regime in other areas, but in the three years the Opposition gained more
ground than what was lost. The Assad regime has the largest advantage over the rebels in the
sky, with air superiority over the Opposition. To this day, the Syrian air force continues to be the
largest threat to the Opposition and it has hindered their movement the most out of all of Assads
means to crush the rebellion. As Assad was further backed into a corner, he also employed the
use of chemical weapons on his own people, a move that only garnered international support for
the rebel movement, mainly from the United States, who began to train and advise the rebels
with their own military. Fearing the loss of one of the most influential governments that still
support the Kremlin, the Russian Federation got involved in Syria in support of the Assad
regime.
Russia has launched a massive ground and air campaign that has reduced all rebel gains and has
regained over 400 km of land for the Assad Regime since 2015. Now the Opposition holds only
28 | P a g e


a few strongholds that are all on the brink of collapse. Ill equipped to fight a world power such as
Russia; the opposition has suffered tremendously and now faces the possibility of losing their
most important stronghold of Aleppo. The loss of Aleppo to the Assad regime would destroy the
rebel forces, which would force them to surrender, possibly unconditionally. Due to further
radicalization of the Opposition, the groups that had originally backed the rebels are hesitant to
give military support. This is especially true for the United States, who would be the best suited
to help the Rebels fight a power such as the Russian Federation.
The battle for freedom from the Assad Regime continues every day for the members of Syrian
Opposition groups, the most important one being in the besieged city of Aleppo. After a failed
cease-fire as well as a multitude of failed attempts to provide the city with aid and relief, the
future looks grim for the battered rebel forces that continue to hold the city. The Eastern portion
of the city that remains in rebel control is the last urban stronghold that the Opposition holds. It
is critical to their cause that the city is held. Despite being under siege since September 22nd, the
rebel forces there remain optimistic with one rebel commander claiming that it would be
impossible for the Assad Regime to retake the city. The same commander also mentioned that an
effort to organize a counter offensive was underway but the Syrian military negates this claiming
that everything is going to plan. The city has largely been reduced to rubble and has been
compared to Berlin in 1945 in terms of destruction. The rebels are faring slightly better than
initially predicted by many as the Russian air force is less likely to bomb the front lines of the
urban fighting due to fears of friendly fire. Even with this slight advantage, it will take nothing
short of a miracle if the rebels are to hold the city.

1. Hold Aleppo-The Syrian Opposition currently is holding its last strongholds in
Aleppo. Russian backed regime forces gain more and more ground every day. The
Opposition must rally for a major victory soon, or they will be routed from Aleppo, and
the remaining foreign policy goals will be much harder to obtain. Outside actors will be
unlikely to help if the Opposition forces are unable to hold territory. If they could inspire
further rebellion, this would also bolster their ranks and possibly regain territory within
Aleppo.
2. Consolidate Forces within Aleppo- Currently; the Russian backed Assad security forces
are making major gains against rebels that are cut off from their main strongholds within
the city. Fighting in small pockets will spell the defeat of the Opposition forces in
Aleppo. The rebels should attempt to regroup and hold their strongholds until either
further rebellion is secured or until another state intervenes on their behalf, namely the
United States.
3. Inspire Further Rebellion- The Assad regime, with backing of Russia, has a much
larger force than the Syrian rebels. Inspiring more to take arms against the oppressive
Assad regime would both raise morale and renew the rebel ranks. If these new rebels
were in Aleppo, it would be even more beneficial to the first two foreign policy goals.
4. Secure Western Support- Throughout the Civil War; western nations and Middle
Eastern countries that support their cause to topple the Assad regime have supported the
rebels. While this has helped them some, they need major military backing. The
introduction of Russia to the Civil War has created an almost larger problem for the
rebels than the Assad regime itself. If the Opposition can somehow secure the military
support from nations in NATO, specifically the United States, they might be able to turn
29 | P a g e


the tide, and put Assad on the defensive. If they can find an ally willing to help militarily,
this would also bolster morale and renew the fighting spirit of the rebels though out Syria.
5. Achieve a Cease-Fire- Although unsuccessful previously, another ceasefire should be
attempted. If the rebels were able to hold Aleppo and can drive Assads forces from the
city, the regime would suffer a major morale blow and would be more willing to listen to
the demands of the Opposition forces. Russia might see futility of fighting on the behalf
of the Assad regime if his forces cannot quell a rebellion with the direct military support
of the Russian Federation.

Syria
This is the major focus of the Opposition as they are directly involved with this conflict. It goes
without saying that their main objective is to either hold Aleppo or even drive Assads forces
from the city. Holding Aleppo is key to the other foreign policy goals, namely support of the
United States or a cease-fire to discuss the terms of a treaty. The Syrian Opposition is focused
mainly on their own fight in Aleppo as well as appealing to Western forces for military aid.
Turkey
As an opposition group fighting a regime, the Syrian Opposition has little interest with the
internal affairs of Turkey, given the current situation of the Opposition. The Opposition has no
way to influence or control the outcome of the coup, as it does not possess the military or
political leverage. However, Turkey was one of the major supporters of the opposition
movement and it would be beneficial for the oppositions situation that whatever the government
in Turkey may be, it continues to support the opposition movement and oppose Bashar al-Assad.

The United States is in a sticky situation in regards to the Syrian Opposition. On one hand the
government of the United States wishes to push Assad from power by any means necessary, but
on the other, they realize that too much aggressive action on the behalf of the opposition will
only further destabilize the Middle East. US support will be crucial for the opposition to push
Assads forces. The US provides arms, aid, money, political power, and is a conduit for highlevel peace negotiations. Working closely with the US is the oppositions only hope continuing
this civil war. However, as the dynamic of the opposition slowly becomes more radical, the US
is beginning to question their involvement. Any leadership inside the opposition would have to
figure out a comprehensive plan to reduce the backlash that is sure to result from increasingly
extreme members of the opposition.
Russian Federation
Russia supports the Assad Regime and is against any aid to the rebels fighting against the Syrian
government. Russia has repeatedly vetoed any UN sanctions that would support the rebels and
work against the government. Russia has not recognized any opposition group and continues to
provide arms to the Assad Regime. Since the onset of Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict,
the rebels have been drastically pushed back and decimated by Russian air and ground forces.
Due solely to Russian support, the Assad regime has been able to make massive gains against
opposition territory. Since Russian intervention, the Assad Regime has regained over 400km of
territory and the rebels have been pushed back to their final stronghold in Aleppo. After repeated
30 | P a g e


violations of multiple ceasefires, the United States and Russia have broken ties over the war,
reigniting the war, with all previous actors still in play except for the United States.
Israel
The regime of Assad has been a sworn enemy of Israel for many years. Assad has supported
almost any faction, including Hamas that would work to destroy Israel. With this in mind, Israel
is leaning towards supporting the opposition in an attempt to weaken one of their most energetic
enemies. The Opposition must realize the relation between Israel and the majority of
Muslims. Garnering support from Israel will turn a large quantity of Muslims away from the
Opposition, as most Muslims are against the Israel.
Syria Assad
While it certainly does not seem like either side in the Syrian civil war is ready to give up, both
sides have a strong incentive to negotiate. The longer the war rages, the harder it becomes for
both sides of the conflict to find security in lasting Syrian stability. A peaceful solution will be
very difficult and both sides will have to rely heavily on pressure from external actors to force
the other side to begin negotiating. The worst outcome would be a lack of peaceful negotiations
that would lead to loss of Aleppo. The Opposition would be hard pressed to make significant
gains against the Assad regime without their stronghold in Aleppo.
Iran
Iran has long supported the Assad regime, which spells ill for the opposition groups operating
inside of Syria. With weapons, aid, and military advisors coming from Iranian sources, the
opposition should be extremely wary of an ever-strengthening Iran. Irans Shia majority clashes
ideologically with the mainly Sunni groups that represent the Syrian Opposition, which should
be alarming for the Oppositions leadership. Iran is not so much a direct enemy of the opposition,
but has been doing everything in its power to make sure Assad can defeat the uprising.
Turkey Erdogan
Since the beginning of the Syrian Opposition movement, there has seldom been a larger
supporter of the cause than the Turkish government under Erdogan. Turkey has provided the
Opposition with both arms and supplies and sympathizes with their cause. Turkey has also been
at odds with the Assad Regime and Russia for quite some time and realizes that the Opposition is
in desperate need of their help. However, despite the continued support from Turkey, the
Opposition has not gained any major ground. In July of 2016 Turkey also announced that it was
moving to normalize its relationship with Syria, a move that could take the Oppositions
greatest supporter out of play.
Turkish Military
While the military coup against the Erdogan government has no formal position on the Syrian
opposition, its success could have led to great change and perhaps great trouble for the Syrian
opposition. Erdogan is seen as unpopular in the eyes of the military coup supporters and his
removal from office could potentially bring policy shift in a direction away from support of the
Opposition groups. While this is mostly speculation, a policy shift could place the rebels in a far
more difficult position.
31 | P a g e


Kurdistan
The relation the Opposition has with the Syrian Kurds has been rocky. While the Kurds do not
support the Assad regime, the Kurds have opened fire on the Opposition forces that have entered
Kurdish territory. Despite this, the Opposition welcomes the Kurdish into their ranks if they
wish to take up arms against the Assad regime. The main issue for recruiting the Kurdish people
is that the Assad regime has given them autonomy while the Opposition is dealt with. The
Opposition does share anti-Assad sentiments with the Kurds, however, and if Kurdish support is
to be gained, the Kurds will need to have a say in any compromises reached between the Assad
regime and the Opposition. However, the Assad regime could promise autonomy to the Kurds if
they prevent the Opposition forces from fleeing Aleppo if it were to fall.
32 | P a g e

Iran
Historical Overview
In 1925, Reza Shah Pahlavi was appointed Shah of Iran. His autocratic government sought to
modernize the country through improved infrastructure, education reforms, westernization, and
secularism. These reforms included attempts to reduce the role of religion in government and
require western clothing, which did not sit well with many of Irans clerics. Reza Shah also
suppressed the press, and any leaders who he believed opposed his government. Iran was then
invaded in 1941 by Great Britain and the Soviet Union, who believed that Iran was friendly to
the Axis powers, though the Shah officially adopted a stance of neutrality.
The British and Soviets deposed Reza Shah, and installed his son, Mohammad Reza Shah. In the
beginning, the new Shah took a light-handed approach to governing, and gave the Parliament
more power. However, elections were corrupt, and Parliament was unstable. Then, in 1951,
Mohammed Mossadegh, the Prime Minister, got Parliament to vote in favor of nationalizing the
oil industry, which was controlled by the British. In response, the U.S. and Great Britain
organized a coup to remove Mossadegh from power in 1953.
After the coup, Mohammad Reza Shah became increasingly autocratic, crushing his political
opponents with his secret police. He also maintained very close relations with the United States,
and continued his fathers attempts to modernize and secularize Iran. In 1973, a spike in oil
prices caused major inflation in Iran. By 1974, the economic recession forced millions of people
out of work. In the late 1970s, lots of young Iranians became unsatisfied with the government,
and began to protest against the economy and rampant corruption.
The Islamic Revolution began in early 1978, with large protests against the Shahs government.
Several months later, frequent strikes and demonstrations all but shut the country down. In
January 1979, the Shah left Iran in exile, and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a popular Iranian
cleric who was exiled by the Shah for over 14 years, returned to Iran. Once back, he began to
push for an Islamic government, and his efforts were rewarded in March, when a referendum to
replace the monarchy with an Islamic government passed overwhelmingly. In November,
another referendum resulted in the adoption of a new Constitution, which set up a theocracy with
Khomeini as Supreme Leader.
In October 1979, the United States admitted Mohammad Reza Shah into the country for cancer
treatment, which outraged the Iranian people, who wanted him to be extradited and tried in Iran.
On November 4, 1979, a large group of Iranian students protested in front of the U.S. embassy in
Tehran, and stormed the facility, holding 52 of the embassy staff hostage for 444 days. This
incident, known as the Iran hostage crisis, resulted in damage to the relations between the two
countries that persist to this day.
In 1980, Saddam Hussein attempted to take advantage of Irans post- revolution disarray, and the
weakness of the military, and invaded Iran. The Iran-Iraq war went on for 8 years, before both
sides agreed to a UN brokered peace deal. Not long after, Khomeini died, and Ali Khamenei
replaced him as the new Supreme Leader.
33 | P a g e


Mohammad Khatami was elected President of Iran in 1997, and began to try to implement
reforms, sparking tensions between his government and the conservative clerics. The tensions
caused protests in the streets, which were put down by the government. The American invasion
of Iraq in 2003 helped strengthen Irans position in the Middle East, due to the empowerment of
Iraqs Shia majority. With the removal of such a powerful player, Iran was able to expand its
influence not only in Iraq, but other Middle Eastern countries as well. Concerns arose about
Irans nuclear program around this time, with Western countries concerned that Iran was
developing nuclear weapons, though Iran claimed it was purely an energy program.
In 2013, Hassan Rouhani was elected President, and promised to recalibrate Irans relations
with the rest of the world. This included a slight thawing of relations with the United States.
Rouhani visited New York in 2013, and had a phone call with President Obama, the first time
that the heads of state of the two countries communicated directly since 1979. In 2015, a historic
nuclear deal was agreed to. Iran agreed to allow UN and IAEA (International Atomic Energy
Association) inspectors to have access to its nuclear sites in exchange for the lessening of
sanctions placed upon the country.

1. Keeping Bashar al-Assad in power in Syria by defeating opposition forces such as the
Free Syrian Army (FSA) and ISIL
2. Supporting President Erdogan in Turkey through continued Iranian support
3. Preventing the formation of a unified Kurdish state
4. Limiting American and Israeli influence in the Middle East
5. Easing international sanctions against Iran.

Syria
Iran and Syria have been strong allies since the Islamic Revolution, despite differences in certain
policies. The alliance began when Hafez al-Assad was President of Syria, and deepened when
his son, Bashar al-Assad, took his place. In 2006, they began military cooperation to oppose
threats from the U.S. and Israel, which included weapons system sales from Iran to Syria. Since
the Syrian Civil War began in 2011, Iran started helping more, by providing training, equipment,
intelligence, and even active military support to the Syrian army. Foreign Policy magazine wrote
an article saying that to achieve peace in Syria, Iran needs a place at the negotiating table. Iran is
Syrias closest Middle Eastern ally, and while Russia is also supporting Assad, Iran and Russia
have different objectives, and Irans interests arent represented by Russia. And unlike the
United States and Russia, Iran has troops on the ground in Syria, so for lasting peace to occur,
Iran needs to be involved in negotiations.
Turkey
Turkey and Iran have had generally good relations since the formation of the modern states.
There have been tense moments, such as Turkey hosting NATOs missile shield, but the two
have remained relatively friendly. In 2010, Erdogan made an unscheduled trip to Iran to help
prevent the international community from putting stricter sanctions due to Irans nuclear
program, and in 2016, during the attempted coup by Turkeys military; Iran immediately voiced
its support of Erdogan. They also agree on the question of the Kurds. Iran has had a shaky
34 | P a g e


relationship with its Kurdish citizens, and does not support the formation of a unified Kurdish
state.

The U.S. and Iran broke formal relations after the Iran hostage crisis in 1979, and have not
reestablished them since. Both countries distrust the other, and the U.S. has placed heavy
economic sanctions on Iran. However, relations have thawed somewhat in recent years.
President Rouhani visited the U.S. in 2013, and Rouhani and President Obama spoke on the
phone, marking the first time such high-level communication has happened since 1979. The
recent nuclear deal and the easing of sanctions show a willingness to cooperate, though it will be
a long time before relations become normal. On 10/13/16, an American warship off the coast of
Yemen in the Sea of Aden was fired upon with missiles from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
They missed, but the U.S. responded by firing on and destroying three Iranian-operated radar
stations aiding the Houthis. Two hours later, Iran then sent two warships to the Sea of Aden,
ostensibly to protect trading vessels from pirates.
Russian Federation
The Russian Federation is one of Irans largest allies. Their mutual interest in limiting American
influence in the Middle East have pushed them together to achieve that goal. Russia and Iran
recently completed a sale of missile systems, which had been stalled since the UN ordered new
sanctions against Iran in 2010, which bodes well for potential future arms deals. The two are
also staunch supporters of the Assad regime in Syria, and have worked together to support it.
Israel
Israel and Iran have had hostile ties since the Islamic Revolution. Ayatollah Khamenei, Irans
Supreme Leader, has called Israel a cancerous tumor that should not exist as a country. There
is lots of mutual distrust between the two, as both believe that the presence of a nuclear program
in the other country represents a huge threat to their national security. International incidents and
disagreements between Israel and Iran are commonplace. Iran has long been concerned by the
presence of nuclear weapons in Israel, and many speculate that that is the reason they seemed to
be pursuing a nuclear weapons program of their own.
Syria Assad
Iran is the Assad regimes closest ally in the Middle East. Iran is committed to assisting the
Syrian military in its fight against opposition forces. To that end, Iran has helped train and equip
the Syrian army, and has sent the Revolutionary Guard to actively assist the Assad regime in
combat.
Syrian Opposition
As the Assad regimes closest ally, Iran has actively fought the Syrian Opposition. It provides
training and equipment to the Syrian army, and has sent its Revolutionary Guard to actively
assist the soldiers. Iran is opposed both to moderate opposition forces like the Free Syrian Army
(FSA), and extremist forces like ISIL.
35 | P a g e


Turkey Erdogan
The modern states of Iran and Turkey have had peaceful, albeit sometimes tense relations. They
are strong trading partners, and both have shown willingness to increase their ties. However,
Turkeys relationships with the United States and Israel have caused tension, especially Turkeys
hosting the NATO missile defense system. They also disagree on the question of Syria. Iran
wants to keep Assad in power, while Turkey wants to see him removed. They do agree on the
prevention of a Kurdish state, and Iran was quick to support Erdogan after the attempted coup by
the Turkish military.
Turkish Military
As stated above, Iran has generally friendly, though sometimes strained relations with Turkey.
Despite their disagreements, Iran was quick to support Erdogan after the attempted coup. This is
possibly because the general Erdogan accused of masterminding the coup, Fethullah Gulen, is
anti-Iranian. It could also be that Iran believes a coup would have destabilized Turkey, which
could have a spillover effect, with bad repercussions for Iran.
Kurdistan
There are around 6.7 million people living in Iranian Kurdistan. Human rights groups have
reported a long history of oppression of Kurdish rights in Iran. Kurds are often discriminated
against in Iran, especially since the Islamic Revolution. There are armed Kurdish separatist
groups active in Iran that has recently clashed with Iranian security forces. Those groups have
also reported that Iran may have used chemical weapons against them. It is apparent that Iran
does not wish to see a Kurdish state, especially not one that takes territory from it. A Kurdish
separatist group in western Iran claims it killed 32 Iranian security forces and mercenaries.
36 | P a g e

Turkey Erdogan
Historical Overview
The conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) was elected into power in 2002. Though
previously barred from public office due to a criminal conviction, a constitutional change
allowed Recep Tayyip Erdoan to run for Parliament and become Prime Minister. In 2014,
Erdoan was then elected for president. Normally an office that held little power in comparison
to the Prime Minister, it has expanded under Erdoan. The combination of increased executive
force, mysterious arrests and raids, and Islamization of Turkish policy has created a strong antiAKP faction within Turkey. This political polarization between non-Kurdish Turks had not
previously existed. As Erdoan grows more powerful, many worry he will try to do away with
the parliamentary/multi-party system altogether and instead institute a strictly presidential system
like Putins Russia. As seen with the purging of: Glenists, military officers, secularists, Kurdish
politicians, some staunch enemies and some former friends, this idea is not too far-fetched.
Turkey is no stranger to military coup attemptsthis was its fifth in the past 60 years. On the
night of July 15th, 2016, President Erdoan was on vacation on an island in the Sea of Marmara,
near Istanbul. Turkish Armed Forces, organized as the Peace at Home Council, blocked off
bridges over the Bosphorous strait in Istanbul. This path is of both tactical and symbolic
importance; at it connects the European and Asian sides of Istanbul. The barricade marked the
beginning of a series of events meant to overthrow the government. Soon, Twitter, Facebook,
and YouTube were shut down in the country, tanks were flooding the streets in Ankara, and
soldiers forced both state- and private-run news companies off the air. Just hours into the coup
attempt, a faction of the military releases a statement, saying the political administration that
has lost all legitimacy has been forced to withdraw; citing the degradation of secularism,
democratic rule, and human rights protections as reasons for the coup, as well as the diminished
importance and reputation of Turkey in the region and the world. Using FaceTime from his
resort, Erdoan urged his supporters to take to the streets in order to stop the aggressors. Over
300 people were killed in the failed coup, and over 2100 were injured.
Since the attempt, President Erdoan has: announced a three-month state of emergency, which
should be lifted in mid-October; temporarily [suspended] its adherence to the European
Convention on Human Rights, a treaty signed by all 47 members of the Council of Europe; and
fired, arrested, or jailed upwards of 60,000 on suspicions of conspiracy. In mid-October,
President Erdogan terminated 400 officers in the armed forces stationed abroad, including 149
working as NATO envoys in Europe. Turkeys allies, while perhaps wary of the authoritarian
overtones of the Erdoan regime, have called for the respect of Turkeys democratically elected
institutions.
The coup is suspected to have been organized by supporters of Fethullah Glen, an imam who
has lived in self-exile in Pennsylvania since 1999, when he was to be put on trial in Turkey for
allegedly supporting the establishment of an Islamic state. A fellow opponent of secularization,
or the separation of religion from public policy, Glen was previously allied with Erdoan and
the AKP, until President Erdogan banned several of the pre-university schools run by the Glen
movement in 2012. In 2013, it was widely suspected that Glen was behind the corruption
arrests of many of Erdoans political allies, as well as a host of negative publicity campaigns
37 | P a g e


released about Erdoan. Currently, the United States has refused to extradite Glen, but the
Turkish government has detained Glens brother and two of his nephews. The United States
does not believe that Glen was involved in the coup attempt.
As Turkey has contributed greatly to the fight on ISIL in Iraq and Syria, it has naturally become
a target for attacks. In the last 16 months alone, over 300 Turks have died in major ISIL-claimed
attacks in Istanbul, Ankara, Gaziantep, and other cities. Furthermore, Turkeys previously open
borders have been very beneficial to Turks and Europeans wanting to become ISIL fighters, as
well as those wanting to conduct terrorist attacks. ISIL has started to encroach on Turkish
holdings and the surrounding areas.
Turkey has been critical in the fight against terrorism by the West and the Syrian opposition.
However, Turkey also believes that stable governments in Iraq and Syria are necessary in order
to destroy terrorist groups like ISIL in the Middle East. Any dramatic restructuring of
geopolitics, religious or otherwise, in the region should be viewed cautiously. Especially, plans
to retake Mosul, Iraq, from ISIL could prove disastrous to Turkish security. Recently, Parliament
approved the deployment of 2,000 more troops to fight terrorist organizations in Iraq upon
invitation by the semi-autonomous Kurdish Regional Government, but the Iraqi government sees
the troops as an occupying force, and has called for their withdrawal. A sectarian fight
between Turkey and Iraq should be avoided, as it would slow progress against ISIL, but if
Turkeys military might and dominance in the region be questioned or threatened, it must act
accordingly.
There have also been allegations that Turkey has aided and abetted the transportation, armament,
and recruiting of ISIL militants. While it is undeniable that the open borders provided easy
access, some claims go so far as to say that Turkish soldiers have allowed known ISIL fighters to
pass through to Syria, that government ministers have provided logistical and material aid, and
that the government has used ISIL as a means to combat the growth of Kurdish groups.

1.
2.
3.
4.
Alleviate the grievous effects of the refugee crisis, both in Turkish camps and abroad.
Destroy ISIL
Punish co-conspirators in the July 15th coup and restore order
Remove Bashar al Assad from power in Syria, but prevent Kurdish forces fighting Assad
from gaining land and/or recognition by other nations
5. Improve/normalize relations with other nations while moving away from a strictly prowestern reputation
6. Establish Turkey as a legitimate powerhouse in the Middle East region

Syria
Turkey is currently hosting more than 2.5 million Syrian refugees, which is more than any other
country in the world. Most are traveling through Turkey in order to relocate to other European
countries such as Germany and Sweden, where burgeoning economies can better accommodate
migrants and refugees. Refugee camps hold 200,000, beyond their maximum capacity, where
conditions are poor and often dangerous. Often hundreds or thousands are huddled into
warehouses and made to sleep on concrete floors, or in makeshift tents on cordoned off city
38 | P a g e


streets. Sexual assault allegations are common, many children have been molested and raped
without report, and dozens have been killed due to gun violence. Though borders were once
open, President Erdoan has been forced to close them due to the massive influx. It is hard for
refugees to get work, and only 40% of school-aged refugees in Turkey are in school. Though
rarely intended as a final destination, it is very difficult for refugees to leave Turkey. Many
nations, such as the UK, deem Turkey and the refugees struggling there as safe. Something
must be done in order to provide better support, especially for the refugees already in Turkish
camps. As seen in the now infamous photograph of three-year-old Alayn Kurdi, a Syrian boy
who drowned in the passage to Turkey and washed onto the Turkish coast, this refugee crisis is a
human catastrophe that will only continue to endanger the lives of innocent Syrians unless
stopped immediately.
Turkey
Erdoan primarily blames Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic cleric and political figure from Turkey
who resides in self-imposed exile in the United States after Erdoans political fights with Gulen.
Gulen has denied any involvement in the coup and condemned it while it was occurring. While
the Turkish government is asking for the United States to extradite Gulen, the Americans have
been slow to respond. On July 20, Erdoan announced a three-month state of emergency, which
he announced at the beginning of October he would extend for another three months at the
conclusion of the first. Under such a state of emergency, the Turkish Constitution allows the
Council of Ministers, along with the president, to issue decrees with the same weight of those
issued by parliament, though each can be rejected by the parliament. However, parliament voted
346-115 in favor of endorsing the state of emergency the day after it was first declared. In early
August, an anti-coup rally was held to support the government. Hosted in Istanbul, the rally
attracted millions of supporters and would feature Erdoan and the leaders of the opposition
parties condemning the undemocratic actions of the coup. The military, while understanding of
the threat Erdoan poses to Turkish democracy and secularism, must also recognize the will of
the people who have supported Erdoan, or who at least oppose undemocratically removing him.

Turkey, both geographically and politically, is in the middle of the East vs. West divide. One of
the few majority-Muslim democracies in the world, it has been one of the United States closest
and most valuable allies in the region. Turkey has also been crucial in the military fight against
ISIL in Syria. Although President Obama publicly denounced the coup attempt and the Turkish
military, it is commonly believed in Turkey that the U.S. was either involved in or behind the
organization of the coup, a belief only bolstered by the governments refusal to extradite
Fethullah Glen. Erdoans religious reforms of government and developing relationship with
Russia have worried the United States, and many Turks feel abandoned by the U.S. amidst the
numerous terrorist attacks that have rocked Turkish cities. However, despite these tensions, the
two countries remain strong allies. There is the potential to use the tension between the United
States and Russia to Turkish advantage. Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmu has warned
that the two countries could be led to the brink of war should the Syrian proxy conflict not be
resolved in the near future, and currently Turkey is caught in between the two.
39 | P a g e


Russian Federation
Turkey and Russia are in the middle of normalizing previously strained relations. Last
November, Turkey shot down a Russian military jet on the Syrian border, causing Russia to
place trade sanctions on Turkey. In August of 2016, after a meeting between Russian President
Vladimir Putin and President Erdoan, Russia agreed to phase out sanctions on Turkeys
tourism, construction, and food export industries. Trade between the two nations is immensely
important to each party, as Turkey relies on Russian gas, and Russia is one of the worlds biggest
importers of Turkish produce. Travel sanctions represented a serious blow to the Turkish
economy, as several million Russian tourists travel to the Turkish coast each year. This
newfound cooperation could present a threat to the West, as both Turkey and Russia feel
mistrustful of and alienated by the western bloc. Turkey, in fact, may be on its way to cementing
an alliance with Russia and China. However, while a tentative relationship is forming, there are
still points of disagreement, like Russias support for the Assad regime.
Israel
This June, Turkey and Israel resumed diplomatic relations for the first time in six years, since a
2010 raid of a Turkish aid ship by Israeli commandos left nine people dead. Before 2010, Turkey
had been Israels closest ally in the region. With this new deal, Turkey has committed to
preventing Hamas, a militant Islamic organization that controls the Gaza strip, from operating in
its borders, while Israel has agreed to pay $20 million in compensation for the families of the
raids victims and allowed a port of entry for Turkish humanitarian aid. Plans for a natural gas
pipeline from Israel to Turkey are also in the works. However, not all is well between the
Erdoan administration and Israel. President Erdoan has repeatedly criticized Israels unlawful
practices in Jerusalem, and Turkey has continuously worked to address the grievances of the
Palestinians.
Syria Assad
President Erdoan has always been one of Bashar al Assads firmest opponents. Beyond the
moral objections, the Syrian governments horrible treatment of its people, and the ensuing civil
war and refugee crisis have sent massive shockwaves throughout Turkey. Currently, the Turkish
government has no plans to talk, meet, or negotiate with the Assad regime, and while they have
not contributed significant military force to the effort, they are in favor of its deposition. The
Erdoan administration believes that a stable government representative of the Syrian people is
necessary before counterterrorism methods can be truly effective.
Syrian Opposition
Turkey has been a key member in the fight against ISIL and the Assad regime. It has supported
nearly two million Syrian refugees; let a US-led coalition use its air bases for strikes on ISIL in
Syria; allowed rebel fighters, arms shipments, and refugees to move through the country,
creating opportunities for terrorist attacks and providing a passageway for jihadists wanting to
join ISIL; and contributed some military forces to the effort. While Turkey supports the
opposition in their mission to depose Assad, and supports groups within the Opposition such as
the Free Syrian Army, it must remain vigilant. The success of the Syrian Kurdish Popular
Protection Units (YPG)the armed wing of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Unity Party
(PYD)in regaining territory from ISIL, especially close to the Turkish border, is particularly
worrying. Turkey, like much of the world, is wary of the destabilization that could occur should
40 | P a g e


Assad be deposed, and believes that any coalition must have a well-strategized plan for the
Syrian government to prevent a broadening of the power vacuum caused by the Arab Spring.
Iran
Before the AKP government came to power, Turkey did not take a side in the sectarian conflicts
in the region. Since his 2002 election, President Erdoan has supported closer ties with Iran,
although some tension has developed between the Sunni AKP and Shia Iran, most notably in the
Syrian and Yemen civil wars. One major point of contention is Irans support of the Alawite, a
sect of Shia Islam, Assad regime. However, Iran was one of the first countries to support
Erdoan and the AKP during this summers coup. While it is a Sunni government, the AKP is
the only major party in Turkey that actively advances political and ideological Islam, which to
Iran is preferable to the Turkish military, which seeks to liberalize and secularize. Furthermore,
Fethullah Glen, the suspected leader of the coup, is stridently anti-Iran and anti-Shiite. Both
Iran and Turkey are united in suppressing the Kurdish minorities in their respective countries.
Turkish Military
The Turkish Military, the second biggest in NATO, seeks to maintain and advance the liberal
ideals of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, a commander who overthrew the sultanate and left in its place
a liberal democracy. Widespread reforms throughout the 20th century, modeled after Western
traditions, aimed to democratize and separate religion and state. This friction, between the liberal
military and more conservative leaders, has led to five attempted military coups in the past sixty
years; the most recent being July 15s failed attempt. Since the coup, President Erdoan has
fired, arrested, or jailed upwards of 60,000 people suspected of being co-conspirators, many of
them high-ranking military officers. Deeming themselves the protectors of secular Turkish
tradition, the military is sharply opposed to the AKPs Islamization of Turkish politics, and the
secretive ways in which Erdoan detains and disciplines his suspected enemies.
Kurdistan
Kurdistan refers to a loose collection of 25 and 35 million Kurds spread throughout Turkey, Iraq,
Syria, Iran, and Armenia, with some controlled areas but no defined borders. Turkey does not
recognize Kurdistan as an independent state, and has repeatedly tried to reduce the influence of
Kurds within its borders and abroad. It has formally denounced the Kurdistans Workers Party
the PKKand the Popular Protection UnitsYPGas terrorist organizations. The current
animosity between Turkey and the Kurds traces back to the early 20th century, and shows no sign
of ceasing any time soon. The relationship between the Syrian opposition, the Kurdish forces,
and Turkey is complicated and tense, and Turkey will have to do its best to preserve its own
interests while fighting against ISIL and Assad.
41 | P a g e

Turkey Military
Historical Overview
The Republic of Turkey, sitting on the Anatolian Peninsula, has always acted as a bridge and
blend of ideas between Europe and Western Asia. Due to its location and the forces of the world,
Turkey has been a nation of conflict, including in its days when it was the Ottoman Empire. The
Empire was founded in 1299 and experienced several external and internal wars, but eventually
collapsed in 1922 after its defeat in World War I and the influence of occupying Ally forces.
During this period, the Turkish people would revolt against the occupying armies as well as the
monarchy of Turkey, all lead by military commander Mustafa Kemal Pasha.
Pasha was elected the first president of the Republic of Turkey and established a parliamentary
system. He began a process for the country to be recognized as a nation-state, to give the people
an identity of being Turkish and not focused on the multi-religious and other identities that
divided the Ottomans. The constitution was secular and the republic was established. Pasha was
given an honorary last name of Ataturk, which means father of the Turks.
Further signifying Turkeys drift in the early days to a more secular, democratic society was
Turkeys commitment to the Allies in World War II, which came late in 1945, but was
significant since the nation had stayed neutral during the war. After the war, the United States
was moved to immediately bring Turkey on as a permanent ally and pull it out of the sphere of
influence with the Truman Doctrine, a stance of the United States that provided military and
financial assistance to Greece and Turkey, both experiencing waves of communism, and bringing
Turkey on as a member of NATO in 1952. The Republic of Turkey experienced its first coup
dtat in 1960 after the election of a populist party, the turmoil being caused by the receding of
Truman Doctrine and other US aid, and the Turkish prime minister visiting the USSR in search
of other sources of aid. Thus, the Turkish military kept the nation friendly towards the US and
other Western allies. However, between 1960 and 1971, many of these government coalitions
were unstable.
In 1971, the military issued a warning to the sitting government of pushing its bounds and
possibly facing another coup. The military followed qthrough after the incompetence of the
sitting government, where universities had stopped functioning, and the government was
hemorrhaging ministers and employees, and American service members were being attacked by
civilians. The military conducted another coup in 1980 seeing the other government as incapable
of handling the domestic chaos in the country. Within two years, a government was
democratically elected and military rule was phased out after another year.
With such a history of successfully overthrowing the government, it should be no surprise that
when in 1997 the military sent a memorandum to Prime Minister Erbaken, asking him to resign
over what the military viewed as religious policies that encroached on Turkeys secular society,
he complied. It was a bloodless coup, but it was a coup nonetheless. In 2002, now-President
Erdogan's (pronounced AIR-do-wan) conservative political party, the AKP (Justice and
Development Party) won the elections held that year. Erdogan at the time was party leader, but
was not be allowed to become prime minister after an incident in the early 90s in which it was
determined he was too pro-Islamic to hold such an office by Turkish judges. Instead, an ally
42 | P a g e


within the party became PM. However, Erdogan would before the next national election become
Prime Minster. In 2007, protests erupted across Turkey against Erdogans possible candidacy for
the president, afraid of his Islamic views in such a secular position of government. The protests
were successful and Erdogan did not seek the presidency until 2014, where he did win.
In the 2015 national election, the AKP lost its majority in parliament in its 13-year streak of
running the country, but still maintained a plurality. In the election of 2015, the AKP had been
pushing a set of constitutional reforms that would have strengthened the presidency to something
akin in power to that of the American presidency. Since Erdogan held the position, and had
become immensely unpopular with his religious-inspired policies many suspect the AKP loss to
be the people beginning to reject the overreach of Erdogan. Just as important, the Peoples
Democratic Party (HDP), which is a Kurdish party, finally broke the threshold of 10% of the
vote to have seats in the parliament. Since 2015, intense fighting has been occurring between the
Turkish military and government and the Kurdish region of Turkey in the Southeast.

The Turkish military, while having a different vision than that of President Erdogan for the
domestic sphere of the nation, still shares many of the same broader goals related to issues across
the world. Below are the key goals of the military:
1. Removal of the government of President Erdogan and reinstatement of a secular
democracy
2. Continued dominance over the Kurdish people in the southern and eastern parts of
the nation, and preventing the unification of these factions with those in Syria and Iraq to
form a united Kurdistan
3. Containment of the forces of President Assad in Syria, while striving for a
diplomatic resolution to remove him from power rather than one by military force
4. The end of ISIL in Syria and its reaches into Iraq and Turkey
Erdogan Be Gone - With its history as a protector of secular democracy, the Turkish military
takes a unique stances compared to other democratic nations in its countrys political process. It
can be unusually outspoken, as well as its occasional coup dtat. Erdogan, since coming to
power in Turkey in 2001 with his political party, the AKP, has advanced an agenda that has
promoted Islamic values through the government, upsetting liberals, secularists, and many young
people. Previous to the July 15 coup, the last noticeable uprising was the Gezi Park protests
located primarily in Istanbul in 2013, though riots occurred throughout the country and a violent
crackdown being lead by the government that injured thousands and killed several people. As
briefly mentioned, the military in Turkey has a unique history of overthrowing the government.
I Kurd You Not - As stated, the Kurdish people continually favor independence, or at least a
semi-autonomous state, rather than direct rule by Turkey. Conflict has raged between the Turkish
government/military and the Kurds since the 1970s. Recently, a cease-fire was negotiated
between Erdogan and a leader of the Kurdish PKK that lasted from 2013 until 2015. However,
the conflict resumed in summer 2015 after the ISIL siege of the Kurdish city of Kobani in Syria,
which Turkish Kurds believed the Erdogan government had allowed to happen. In the winter of
2015, the Turkish military conducted operations in the Kurdish regions of Turkey, resulting in
hundreds of deaths. More recently, political power has been consolidated between the Kurds in
the political party of HDP, a pro-Kurdish and leftist group, which has only recently broken the
43 | P a g e


threshold to hold seats in the Turkish parliament. Kurdish growth in power can potentially
threaten Turkeys.
Setting Assad Aside - President Assads brutal tactics in Syrias five year long civil war has lead
to an influx of refugees in Turkey, emboldened Kurdish forces in Syria, Iraq, and Turkey, as well
as created a cesspool for terrorists activity to breed in. The refugees are a burden to Turkeys
resources and are overwhelming, as they require much international coordination for the
provision of aid. ISIL has inspired attacks against Turkey along the border with Syria, as well as
in the major cities of Istanbul and Ankara. Turkey has been in favor of some military options
besides some bombing campaigns against Assad, such as a ground invasion or establishing a nofly zone, but has not been willing to do it alone. While Turkey supports the removal of Assad, it
is not willing to use its military forces, especially unilaterally. Coordination throughout the
international community in dealing with the Syrian civil war is a key strategic interest for the
Turkish military as well as long-term regional security.
ISIL - As mentioned, ISIL has conducted, or at least claimed responsibility for, terrorist attacks
that have occurred in Turkey. Furthermore, as demonstrated with the siege of Kobane, the quasistate is not afraid to encroach on Turkish lands. Hundreds, if not thousands, of Turkish citizens
have been suspected of joining ISIL, with possibly more having sympathy for the group. The
civil war in Syria that has raged between Assad and various forces has of course driven up the
refugee population that Turkey must deal with, but ISIL is just as big of a threat to these
refugees. The entire region has been fighting ISIL, including the Kurds across the borders of
Turkey, Syria, and Iraq in a quite successful campaign. This has increased the respect of
international leaders for the Kurdish people, as well as emboldened them to seek a possible
Kurdish state in Syria and Iraq, or at least semi-autonomous state, which would spell trouble for
Turkeys Kurdish region. Turkey has been conducting some bombing missions against ISIL,
primarily with the international coalition bombing campaign, but with the Syrian border being in
shambles, Turkey has rolled its own tanks across to deal with an encroaching ISIL, as well as
supported certain rebel groups with arms and small military operations to reclaim Syrian
villages.

Syria
As stated, the civil war in Syria presents an incredible problem for Turkey as the two nations
share a 511-mile border, and a border that cuts right through Kurdish land. In January and March
of 2016, ISIL claimed responsibility for two bombings of Istanbul. In April 2016, ISIL fired
rockets into the Turkish province of Kilis, wounding 80 and killing 22 people, half of which
would be Syrians. Alongside Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Turkey has been a heavy supporter of
Syrian rebels, providing arms and training within Turkeys borders, as well as military force such
as the Turkish tanks providing cover or even airstrikes as Turkey has lead rebels to push and
reclaim several villages and towns just south of the Turkish border, around locations such as
Azaz, Dabiq, Akhtarin, the last of which was claimed by the Turks and allies as recently as Oct.
6. Importantly, Turkey does not support every rebel group. It does not support Kurdish groups,
and will in fact attack these groups, such as the Peoples Protection Unit (YPG), or the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF), both of which are supported by the United States.
Regarding President Assad, Turkeys government, and the militarys willingness to follow such
orders, has been outspoken in its wish to remove him. The Turkish military would find Assads
44 | P a g e


removal useful should a peaceful end follow, as the five year civil war has bred trouble along the
border, produced an unstable amount of refugees in Turkey, and Assads forces, in 2012, shot
down a Turkish military jet that Syria claimed to be violating its airspace.
An audio recording was released in March 2014 of a meeting between Turkish government
officials and Turkish military officials, all high-ranking, discussing a possible operation to
invade Syria. Turkey, as recently as February 2016, has asked NATO to support a no-fly zone in
Syria, primarily along the Turkish border. However, few nations are ready to possibly enter into
a military conflict with Russia, which dominated the Syrian airspace. The military, while
seemingly advocating for the forceful removal of Assad, does not seem willing to be the only
nation to do so. Instead, it looks for a coalition of forces to do more than just a bombing
campaign.
Turkey
On Friday night, July 15, 2016, the first violent coup in years was attempted against Erdogans
government, with tanks and fighter jets descending on Ankara and Istanbul. Ultimately, the coup
was unsuccessful as it was a faction within the military that lead the coup rather than the entire
military. Also, many Turks came out onto the streets of the two large cities to support President
Erdogan, claiming that he was terrible but that he was democratically elected and that a military
coup against the republics principles, though the history of the nation with coups is long.
Since the July 15 attempted coup, President Erdogan has lead a massive crackdown on the
military and other members of the government that have been suspected of helping or being
sympathizers of the coup, including several news groups. In late July, Turkey ordered 45
newspapers, 16 news channels, and various other sources such as magazines to cease operations.
Since the coup, Turkey has fired more than 45,000 individuals, most in the immediate aftermath
of the coup. Many suspect Erdogan used the coup to purge the government of his political
enemies, as it seemed lists of people to be removed were readily available and used. In the
military, over 160 generals and admirals were detained. Around eight high-ranking members of
the military have sought asylum in Greece and one has sought asylum in the US. Others detained
include police officers, judges, 15,000 teachers, and every university dean. The government has
been so focused on detaining these individuals that it has released nearly 38,000 prisoners to
make room for the suspected coup plotters.

As a member of NATO and a possible member of the EU, Turkey has a close relationship with
the United States, setting aside recent events such as Erdogans crackdown on opposition, the
bombing campaign against the Kurds, and what the US claims to be is a lukewarm response to
ISIL. During the July 15 coup attempt, President Obama backed the elected President Erdogan
against military forces. While Erdogan may be too religious for the tastes of the Turkish military,
the US views his government, and Turkey itself, as a force of moderation in the Middle East. The
US does, however, provide asylum for Fethullah Gulen, a political enemy of Erdogan who does
not have a great history with secularism in Turkey, but may be better than Erdogan in the eyes of
the military.
45 | P a g e


Russian Federation
Turkey and Russian relations have improved since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end
of the Cold War, even though Turkey was a partner of the United States as a member of NATO.
The trade between the two nations ranges from $30 to $40 billion annually. The two also share
goals in suppressing rebellious minorities, the Kurds for Turkey and the Chechens for the
Russians. In late 2015, Turkeys military shot down a Russian jet that had crossed the TurkeySyria border, putting the world on high alert. While a back and forth began between the two
nations, Erdogan and Putin eventually resumed normalization of ties as Russia becomes more
interested in Syria and the resolution of its conflict, collaboration outweighed this skirmish.
Israel
Turkey was the first Muslim-majority nation to recognize the Israel and has generally been
peaceful to the nation throughout its history. However, recent disputes over Israels handling of
Gaza in 2008-2009 and 2013 caused Turkey to deteriorate the relationship between the two
nations. In 2013, Israel raided a flotilla in Gaza and killed, among others, nine Turkish citizens.
The United States applied pressure for the two to normalize ties, but the negotiations were not
successful until June 26 to restore diplomatic relations. Sanctions were lifted against each other
and ambassadors would be appointed. Today, Israel and Turkey are putting aside their bumpy
history to tackle ISIL that is in ravaging the lands in between their borders.
Syria Assad
The Turkish government has stated it would like to see President Assad removed from power,
but is not willing, as of yet, to take its military to do the job without help from other nations.
However, it has shot down multiple Syrian jets or aircraft that have interfered in Turkish
airspace. The military is already engaged in its crackdown on the Kurds, in its fight against ISIL,
and last but not least, in its own violent overthrow of its own government. Assad has destabilized
Syria to a point where refugees constantly flood into Turkey. This poses a security concern to
Turkey as potential terrorists are bred through ISIL and other organizations due to the
radicalization in this tumultuous area. The Syrian conflict cannot be solved without addressing
what to do with Assad; it is not as simple as destroying ISIL.
Syrian Opposition
Turkey played an integral role in helping to start the Syrian opposition, but does not support
every rebel group such as Kurdish groups and the SDF. After the war started early on, Turkey
helped train defectors of the Syrian Army and helped to organize the eventual Free Syrian Army.
It has also provided weapons, funding, and even small military force, as well as further refuge
for dissidents of the Syrian government. Turkey, while freely using its border with Syria for
these activities of support, does have a small sort of base in Syria with about 30 Turkish military
members guarding the tomb of Suleyman Shah, which, while it has military members, is not a
large area. It is historically important to Turkey, and Turkey did increase the number of soldiers
guarding the base because of the civil war, but this would need great expansion to be a base of
operations. As mentioned, the military has conducted some small operations alongside rebels to
reclaim villages in northern Syria, but these are villages claimed by ISIL.
Iran
46 | P a g e


Turkey has sought to have normal relations with Iran since the 1979 revolution, and has been
largely successful. The two essentially coexist peacefully in the turbulent region, but do disagree
on the key issue of Syria. Iran supports keeping President Assad in power, and has been actively
involved militarily in keeping him there, while Turkey advocates for his removal. The two,
however, do agree on keeping the Kurdish people suppressed as part of Kurdistan runs into
northwestern Iran.
Turkey Erdogan
President Erdogan, in the view of certain factions of the military and public, has radically
changed the political culture of the nation and aims to radically change the structure of
government, from one of a parliamentary democracy to one of a powerful quasi-theocracy.
Throughout Turkeys history, the military has seen itself, and acted as, the guardian of a secular
democratic Turkey, thus leading several successful coups. Because of Erdogan moving Turkey to
a conservative, Islamic political culture, as well as his desire to centralize power with himself as
president, the military attempted but ultimately failed another coup on July 15 with the aim of
removing Erdogan and his allies in Parliament from power.
Kurdistan
As mentioned, Turkey opposes a united and independent Kurdistan. While the Kurdish people
and the Turkish people may be united against ISIL, the ultimate goals for each are different.
Turkey wishes to get rid of the menace. Kurdistan wishes to use the vacuum of power to
formally create its nation. The Turkish Kurds, numbering between 15 and 20 million out of a
total population of nearly 80 million, make up a powerful and particularly large group in Turkey
and peaceful relations have existed before between Turkish Kurds and Turks. However, with the
threat of terrorism and the growing power of the Kurdish party HDP in Turkeys national
parliament, the government and military have unleashed a bombing campaign in the Turkish
southeast as well as into Kurdistan in Syria and Iraq.
47 | P a g e

Kurdistan
Historical Overview
Kurdistan is not a recognized state. Kurdistan refers to a loose collection of 25 to 35 million
Kurds spread out throughout Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Armenia, with some controlled areas
but no defined borders. It is the largest stateless minority within the Middle East. The collapse
of the Ottoman Empire and the formation of nation states in the Middle East saw the Kurdish
people split up into different states. However, the Kurds all had the same experiences with their
respective states: their culture has been oppressed throughout their history. Kurdish culture is
mainly a mixture of ancient Iranians having Islamic roots and is Hurrian or indigenous. The
Kurdish women, unlike many other Muslim cultures, do not cover their faces and men and
women participate in mixed-gender activities. However, the largest difference between the
Kurds and the majority groups within the four states the Kurds are split between is the Kurdish
language. Kurds speak their own language not Arabic. These distinctions set the Kurds apart
from the majority groups in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey.
In Turkey, the Kurdish culture was completely illegal and only recently have Kurds been
included in Parliament; although their ability to make laws has been completely silenced from a
lack of majority vote. Iraq has allowed the Kurdish regions to practice a relative autonomy
within the area where Kurds have a majority in Northern Iraq. Iraq has given Kurds the fairest
and most equal treatment of any of the four countries that have a large population of Kurds. Iran
has violently crushed two attempts of Kurdish autonomy, and quelled a rebellion in 1979.
Currently, Iran has the most oppression of the Kurdish people, with their ability to have any sort
of social mobility being completely destroyed. Kurds in Iran are not given a fair trial when
questioned, and are executed on purely religious reasons. In Syria, Kurds were denied
citizenship and faced routine harassment by the Assad Regime. Since the collapse of the state
into a Civil War, the Kurds have secured regional autonomy and are currently engaged with ISIL
forces within Syria. The Kurds have forced ISIL forces back from their autonomous region and
have even pushed within 30 miles of the ISIL capitol city of Raqqa.

1. Nation-Statehood- Because of varying relations with the governments, different factions
of Kurds have arisen. Some factions are simply a political party while others are a rebel
faction within an established state. Although the goals of the regional Kurdish factions
are different by which state the group is located in, one goal all Kurds agree on is the
ultimate goal: the formation of Kurdistan into a nation-state.
2. Formation of Unified/Organized Kurdish Political Party- The Kurds are currently
only defined by a unifying culture. A good start to unifying the Kurdish people, but not
enough to gain traction in other foreign policy goals. The Kurds need to organize under
common principles that all Kurdish people can agree upon: the formation of a nation
state, the emancipation of their culture from oppression by the current regimes, and/or the
recognition of Kurdish autonomy.
3. Emancipation of Kurdish Culture- While there are differing views of what Kurdish
freedom looks like (i.e. Kurdish state, equal rights for Kurds, democratic autonomy), it is
agreed among most Kurds that more freedom for the fourth largest ethnic group in the
Middle East is needed. Being a minority population within four established states,
48 | P a g e


Kurdish culture and tradition has been suppressed to some degree in each state where
there is a sizeable Kurdish population. The emancipation of Kurdish culture is a major
secondary goal if Kurdish statehood is impossible.
4. Defeat ISIL in Kurdish Lands- Since 2013, Kurds in all nations have been fighting
against ISIL. While attempting to repel the jihadist group, the Kurds were pushed all the
way to the Turkish border. But in 2015, backed by US air strikes, the Kurds retook
Kobane. This seems to have been the tipping point because, with the help of US air
strikes, the Kurds control a contiguous 250 miles along the Turkish border and are within
30 miles of Raqqa, Syria, an ISIL stronghold. Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi forces are
also planning a joint strike to retake Mosul, the last major ISIL stronghold in Iraq.
5. Secure International Backing- The Kurds have been the only group that has been
battling ISIL and making major victories and taking a large amount of territory from the
organization. The Kurdish people have the sole right to say they have purged the ISIL
organization in a direct ground-to-ground war. This feat will not go unnoticed by the
world, and the Kurds should use this fame in order to garner support from international
actors such as Russia and the United States, whose support would be invaluable to the
Kurds in negotiating with Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran for autonomy or even
independence.

Syria
There are four conflicts consecutively happening in Syria: Assad vs. the Opposition, the fight
against ISIL, the Kurds fight for autonomy, and international actors. The Kurds are one of the
many factions combatting ISIL in northern Syria. With the turmoil of the civil war, the Kurds
look to use their combat skills in fighting ISIL to gain support from the international community.
The Kurds have been, for the most part, on their own in the fight against ISIL. In fact, Turkey
has run airstrikes against both ISIL and Kurdish positions within Syria. Undeterred, the Kurds
continue their fight against ISIL to drive them from their lands and in hope to secure support
from the International community.
Turkey
The Turkish government has categorized the Kurds as a terrorist organization, mainly the
Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) party. The PKK has been fighting a guerilla war against the
Turkish government. Although there is a small Kurdish presence within the legislative branch of
Turkeys government, the minority is unable to pass any legislation that would be beneficial to
the Kurdish people. With the coup, the government has been destabilized and the Kurds in
Turkey enjoy more autonomy, as the government is too preoccupied to deal with the PKK.

The United States has a very complex relationship with the Kurds. The U.S. has historically
supported the Kurds, even advocating for the creation of a Kurdish state after WWI and the
destruction of the Ottoman Empire. More recently, the United States and the Iraqi Kurds worked
together to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Today, the U.S. provides air strikes, arms and
ammunition for military actions that the Kurds take against ISIL as part of a coalition to defeat
them. As well as military aid, humanitarian aid is provided to the Kurdish Regional Government
(KRG). The U.S. has also supported the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Unity Party (PYD and YPG)
49 | P a g e


but, like Turkey, denounces the PKKs insurgency because of their threat to democracy in
Turkey.
Russian Federation
Russia has had a long and fairly friendly relationship with the Kurds. Historically, Russia has
allowed Kurds to enter their country to seek refuge from armed conflicts. This has led to a
Kurdish population of 63,000 strong currently living in Russia. More recently, Russia has
supported Kurds by fighting for the Kurdish right to a seat at the Syrian peace talks. As long as
Kurds continue to focus on fighting ISIL rather than participating heavily in the Syrian Civil
War, Russia will likely leave the Kurds to their devices. However, Russia is in support of the
Iran, Turkish, and Assad regime, all of which repress the Kurds in their respective states. This
creates an awkward relationship between the Kurds and Russia, but the Kurdish war on ISIL
might foster Russian support for political autonomy or even independence, depending on the
outcomes of the Turkish coup and the Syrian Civil War.
Israel
While there are no formal and serious ties with Israel that have been created, many Kurdish
groups have reached out to Israel for support including Syrian Kurds and Iraqi Kurds. Israel has
provided limited military support and has even bought oil from Kurdish groups. This could be
Kurdistans strongest ally in the region as Israel sympathizes with the struggle the Kurds are
going through but the relationship would need to be significantly strengthened.
Syria Assad
Kurds make up around 7 to 10% of the Syrian population. Over the years, Kurds in Syria have
been mistreated. 300,000 Kurds have been denied citizenship since the 1960s and Kurdish land
has been taken and given to Arab families in order to Arabize Kurdish land. The Syrian
government has also cracked down on pro-Kurdish protests and arrested political leaders in an
attempt to limit demands for greater autonomy. As the civil war began, the Kurds remained
neutral, not picking sides and sticking to their enclaves. After two years of being uninvolved,
government forces left the area to focus on areas where there were rebel strongholds. Because of
very little governmental presence, Kurdish groups took over these areas and started governing
themselves. These groups split into two: the Democratic Unity Party (PYD) and the others,
which formed into Kurdistan National Council (KNC). At first relations between these two
governing groups were strained but in 2014, the groups united to declare the creation of an
autonomous democratic government with three branches based in the three Kurdish Enclaves.
This was not an attempt to become independent from Syria but rather have a local democratic
administration within a federal framework. PYDs leader Salih Muslim has stressed that for any
political settlement to end the civil war to be successful, Kurds must be at the table to ensure
equal rights and recognition of Kurdish autonomy.
Syria Opposition
The Kurds and other rebel factions have an interesting relationship. Muslims and the PYD have
attempted to stay neutral but have attacked some opposition groups and denied allegiance to
Assad. That being said, PYD and their military arm the Popular Protection Units (YPG) are also
part of the Syrian Democratic Forces, a U.S. backed opposition group. However, the Kurds are
not fighting to take control of the government but rather to maintain their regional autonomy.
50 | P a g e


For this reason, the rebel factions have largely left the Kurds to their own devices, but are in
support of their war against ISIL. The Kurds at one point were within 30 miles of Raqqa, the
ISIL stronghold in Syria. The Kurds must be at the negotiation table when the Opposition
Forces and the Assad Regime meet peacefully.
Iran
Iranian and Kurdish relations are tumultuous. With 4 to 5 million Kurds living in Iran, there have
been struggles for power since 1918 with Kurds revolting and ultimately failing to create their
own Republic after World War II. More recently Iran has had to deal with three major separatist
groups: The Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), and Democratic
Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI or KDP-I). Many of these fighters are stationed in the hills and
rough terrain around the Iraqi- Iranian border. Several of these groups have also been described
as terrorist organizations by the United States and other world powers. That being said, the
majority of Kurds in Iran do not subscribe to these extreme views. Both Iran and Turkey are
united in suppressing the Kurdish minorities in their respective countries.
Turkey Erdogan
Traditionally the Kurds and the Turkish government have had a strained relationship. As early as
the 1920s and 1930s, the Kurds were uprooted and resettled, Kurdish costumes and names were
banned, and the Turkish government in response to uprisings restricted the Kurdish language.
This oppression went on for several decades until in 1978 when Abdullah Ocalan created the
Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which called for an independent Kurdish state. In 1984, PKK
started its armed struggle against the Turkish government, which has been a continuous conflict
and has claimed the lives of 40,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands more. Finally,
after rescinding their demands for an independent state and asking for greater political and
cultural autonomy, the Turkish government and Erdogan agreed to meet with the PKK. These
peace talks fell apart after the creation of the Peoples Democratic Party (HDP), which
encompassed the views of a wider range of Kurds, including the now pacified PKK. In June of
2015, a suicide bombing attack killed 33 young Turkish activists and injured many more in a
Southeastern Turkish city, where a majority of the residents are of Kurdish decent. The attack is
believed to have been carried out by a Turkish national who had joined ISIL. Regardless of the
bombers affiliation, the attack led to a complete breakdown of any progress made. Turkey has
also blurred the line between the PKK and other Kurdish groups who are not explicitly involved
in militant actions, driving the wedge between the Turkish government and the Kurdish people
deeper.
Turkey Military
The Turkish Military is even more hostile towards Kurds. Adem Huduti, leader of the coup to
overthrow Erdogan, was a leader in the fight against the PKK. While at times and under certain
situations, Kurds and Turkish Military fight alongside one another to defeat ISIL, it is by no
means a strong coalition. The Kurds had a small presence within the government when the coup
happened, and there is a post-coup crackdown on Kurdish HDP party, being an opposition party
to the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
51 | P a g e

ICCE Background Guide Fall 2016

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

ICCE Background Guide Fall 2016

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

November 13th-November 14th

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Table of Contents (Click on the page you want instead of scrolling)

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Syrian Civil War

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Opening Ceremonies in Whitley Auditorium

Committee Orientation: Students join their committee members in

Dinner Break with Chairs (optional)

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Protocol and Dress Code

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The United States of America

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Foreign Policy Goals

Ensure a free and fair election is held in Syria

Relations to the Crises

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Relationships to the Other Committees

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Foreign Policy Goals

Relations to the Crises

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Relationships to the Other Committees

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Foreign Policy Goals

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Relations to the Crises

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Foreign Policy Goals

Relations to the Crises

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Relationships to the Other Committees

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Foreign Policy Goals

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Relations to the Crises

Relationships to the Other Committees

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Foreign Policy Goals

Relations to the Crises

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

Relationships to the Other Committees

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon

The International Crisis Conference at Elon