Chapter-4

PROJECTED REQUIREMENT OF
INTER–REGIONAL TRANSMISSION OF POWER

4.1 Development Plan for National Grid System for a perspective scenario
requires determination of capacity and topology of the grid corresponding to
that scenario. This in turn requires assessment of power exchange needs
based on which transmission expansion plan could be worked out. Power
exchange needs would depend upon the projected scenario of surpluses and
deficits in various regions taking into account the regional plans of generation
capacity additions and growths in demand. The inter-regional exchange needs
would vary from season to season as well as during the peak and off peak
periods of the day. Therefore, possible scenarios of regional surpluses and
deficit corresponding to various operating conditions are projected and
extreme dispatch conditions considered for determination of transmission
expansion plan.

4.2 For assessing the inter-regional power exchange requirements, possible

scenarios of regional surpluses and deficit corresponding to each year upto
the end of 11th Plan (i.e. each year upto 2011-12) has been projected for the
peak and off-peak conditions of winter, summer and monsoon months. The
projection based on programme of generation and anticipated demand aims at
estimating the transmission requirement at the inter-regional level. The
National grid system evolved on this projection would provide a robust
transmission system that would be able to cater to the needs of various
feasible operating scenarios and also provide required margins to support
market oriented power exchanges. The scenario of regional surpluses and
deficits have been projected based on following parameters in respect of
generation availability as %of capacity and demand as %of peak:
(for simplicity, Thermal machines have been subdivided into three categories of
‘T’- Thermal Good performing, ‘TL’- Low performing and ‘TP’- Poor performing)

National Electricity Plan – Transmission Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 1

 Northern Region:
Generation Availability as %of Capacity Demand as % of
Scenario
T TL TP H Peak
Winter Peak 85% 45% 30% 50% 100%
Winter- Off-Peak 85% 45% 30% 10% 70%
Monsoon- Peak 75% 45% 30% 100% 90%
Monsoon- Off-Peak 75% 45% 30% 90% 70%
Summer- Peak 80% 45% 30% 80% 100%
Summer- Off-Peak 80% 45% 30% 65% 90%

Western Region:
Generation Availability as %of Capacity Demand as % of
Scenario
T TL TP H Peak
Winter Peak 85% 45% 30% 50% 100%
Winter- Off-Peak 85% 45% 30% 10% 65%
Monsoon- Peak 75% 45% 30% 90% 90%
Monsoon- Off-Peak 75% 45% 30% 70% 65%
Summer- Peak 80% 45% 30% 70% 100%
Summer- Off-Peak 80% 45% 30% 40% 70%

Southern Region:
Generation Availability as %of Capacity Demand as %of
Scenario Peak
T TL TP H
Winter Peak 85% 45% 30% 50% 100%
Winter- Off-Peak 85% 45% 30% 10% 65%
Monsoon- Peak 75% 45% 30% 85% 90%
Monsoon- Off-Peak 75% 45% 30% 65% 65%
Summer- Peak 80% 45% 30% 70% 95%
Summer- Off-Peak 80% 45% 30% 40% 70%

Eastern Region:
Generation Availability as %of Capacity Demand as %of
Scenario Peak
T TL TP H
Winter Peak 85% 45% 30% 50% 100%
Winter- Off-Peak 85% 45% 30% 10% 65%
Monsoon- Peak 75% 45% 30% 90% 90%
Monsoon- Off-Peak 75% 45% 30% 70% 65%
Summer- Peak 80% 45% 30% 70% 100%
Summer- Off-Peak 80% 45% 30% 40% 70%

North-Eastern Region:
Generation Availability as %of Capacity Demand as %of
Scenario
T TL TP H Peak
Winter Peak 80% 45% 30% 50% 100%
Winter- Off-Peak 80% 45% 30% 10% 65%
Monsoon- Peak 75% 45% 30% 100% 90%
Monsoon- Off-Peak 75% 45% 30% 90% 65%
Summer- Peak 80% 45% 30% 80% 100%
Summer- Off-Peak 80% 45% 30% 60% 70%

National Electricity Plan – Transmission Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 2

4.3 Generation Capacity and Demand projections for Northern, Western,
Southern, Eastern and North-Eastern Regions and corresponding All-India
figures for carrying out this analysis, are given below:
(All figures are in MW)

Northern Region

Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Generation Capacity
Thermal 20951 22246 23586 25606 28331 28581 29581 29581
Hydro 12242 12672 13642 14042 15942 18102 21952 24914
Total 33193 34918 37228 39648 44273 46683 51533 54495
DEMAND
16th EPS 31030 33210 35540 38000 40630 43440 46450 49670

Growth as per trend of 7.5% 27000 29030 31210 33550 36070 38780 41690 44820

Western Region

Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Generation Capacity
Thermal 26528 28205 36004 42114 49414 50414 50414 50414
Hydro 5898 6808 7728 7728 7728 7928 8188 8188

Total 32426 35013 43732 49842 57142 58342 58602 58602

DEMAND
16th EPS 31430 33270 35223 37290 39470 41780 44230 46820
Growth as per trend of 7.5% 31200 33540 36060 38760 41670 44800 48160 51770

Southern Region

Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Generation Capacity
Thermal 18478 20240 21170 24769 30657 32957 33607 34107
Hydro 10877 11056 11056 11351 11351 11624 11924 12154
Total 29355 31296 32226 36120 42008 44581 45531 46261
DEMAND
16th EPS 25736 29161 31017 32960 35030 37230 39570 42060

Growth as per trend of 7.5% 23100 24830 26690 28690 30840 33150 35640 38310

National Electricity Plan – Transmission Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 3

Eastern Region

Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Generation Capacity
Thermal 14830 15330 19310 20520 22390 25430 28050 30170
Hydro 2758 3098 4513 5470 5470 5690 5690 5788
Total 17588 18428 23823 25990 27860 31120 33740 35958
DEMAND
16th EPS 10230 11360 11990 12650 13350 14080 14850 15670

Growth as per trend of 6% 8800 9330 9890 10480 11110 11780 12490 13240

North-Eastern Region

Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Generation Capacity
Thermal 1139 1160 1183 1183 1513 1613 1663 1663
Hydro 1080 1080 1180 1180 1324 3034 5030 6550
Total 2219 2240 2363 2363 2837 4647 6693 8213
DEMAND
16th EPS 1490 1740 1875 2030 2200 2380 2580 2790
Growth as per trend of 7.5% 1300 1400 1510 1620 1740 1870 2010 2160

Total All-India

Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Generation Capacity
Thermal 81926 87181 101253 114192 132305 138995 143315 145935
Hydro 32855 34714 38119 39771 41815 46378 52784 57594
Total 114781 121895 139372 153963 174120 185373 196099 203529
DEMAND
16th EPS 99916 108741 115645 122930 130680 138910 147680 157010
Growth as per trend 91400 98130 105360 113100 121430 130380 139990 150300

National Electricity Plan – Transmission Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 4

4.4 Region-wise projections of Year wise Projected Availability, Demand and
Deficit/Surplus based on above norms have been detailed in Annex-4.1 for the
Northern Region, Annex-4.2 for the Western Region, Annex-4.3 for the Southern
Region, Annex-4.4 for the Eastern Region and Annex-4.5 for the North-eastern
Region. Based on the season-wise and peak / off-peak availability and demand
scenarios as detailed in above Annexes, the picture of all-India scenario for the 11th
Plan end, which forms the basis for assessing the transmission requirement and
evolving of the National Grid Network is as following:
(all figures in MW)

Winter Off Peak Winter Peak

Deficit/ Deficit/
Regions Availability Demand Surplus Availability Demand Surplus

Northern 26086 31374 -5288 36052 44820 -8768

Western 43037 33651 9386 46312 51770 -5458
Southern 30024 24902 5122 34886 38310 -3424
Eastern 23438 8606 14832 25753 13240 12513
North-Eastern 1985 1404 581 4605 2160 2445

Total 124570 99937 24633 147608 150300 -2692

Monsoon Off Peak Monsoon Peak

Deficit/ Deficit/
Regions Availability Demand Surplus Availability Demand Surplus

Northern 43409 31374 12035 45900 40338 5562

Western 43067 33651 9416 44704 46593 -1889
Southern 33341 24902 8439 35772 34479 1293
Eastern 24458 8606 15852 25616 11916 13700
North-Eastern 7142 1404 5738 7797 1944 5853

Total 151417 99937 51480 159789 135270 24519

Summer Off Peak Summer Peak

Deficit/ Deficit/
Regions Availability Demand Surplus Availability Demand Surplus

Northern 38485 40338 -1853 42222 44820 -2598

Western 43052 36239 6813 45508 51770 -6262
Southern 31987 26817 5170 35633 36395 -762
Eastern 23948 9268 14680 25685 13240 12445
North-Eastern 5260 1512 3748 6570 2160 4410

Total 142732 114174 28558 155618 148385 7233

National Electricity Plan – Transmission Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 5

 Annex-4.1
Projected Availability, Demand and Deficit/Surplus - Year wise for Northern Region

PROJECTED SURPLUS/ DEFICIT SCENARIO NORTHERN REGION NR

Scenario Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

PROJECTED AVAILABILITY
Winter Peak 22381 23696 25320 27237 30504 31796 34571 36052
Winter- Off-Peak 17484 18627 19863 21620 24127 24555 25790 26086
Monsoon- Peak 26756 28157 30132 32047 35991 38338 42938 45900
Monsoon- Off-Peak 25532 26890 28768 30643 34397 36528 40743 43409
Summer- Peak 25180 26560 28408 30344 34044 35972 39852 42222
Summer- Off-Peak 23344 24659 26362 28238 31653 33257 36559 38485

PROJECTED DEMAND
Winter Peak 27000 29030 31210 33550 36070 38780 41690 44820
Winter- Off-Peak 18900 20321 21847 23485 25249 27146 29183 31374
Monsoon- Peak 24300 26127 28089 30195 32463 34902 37521 40338
Monsoon- Off-Peak 18900 20321 21847 23485 25249 27146 29183 31374
Summer- Peak 27000 29030 31210 33550 36070 38780 41690 44820
Summer- Off-Peak 24300 26127 28089 30195 32463 34902 37521 40338

DEFICIT (-ve figures) REQUIRED TO BE IMPORTED BY NORTHERN REGION

Winter Peak -4620 -5334 -5890 -6313 -5567 -6984 -7119 -8768
Winter- Off-Peak -1416 -1694 -1984 -1865 -1122 -2591 -3393 -5288
Monsoon- Peak 2456 2030 2043 1852 3528 3436 5417 5562
Monsoon- Off-Peak 6632 6569 6921 7158 9148 9382 11560 12035
Summer- Peak -1820 -2470 -2802 -3206 -2026 -2808 -1838 -2598
Summer- Off-Peak -956 -1468 -1727 -1957 -810 -1645 -962 -1853

Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 6

 Annex-4.2
Projected Availability, Demand and Deficit/Surplus - Year wise for Western Region

PROJECTED SURPLUS/ DEFICIT SCENARIO WESTERN REGION WR

Scenario Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

PROJECTED AVAILABILITY
Winter Peak 24864 26744 33833 39027 45232 46182 46312 46312
Winter- Off-Peak 22505 24021 30742 35936 42141 43011 43037 43037
Monsoon- Peak 24729 26805 33483 38065 43540 44470 44704 44704
Monsoon- Off-Peak 23549 25444 31937 36520 41995 42885 43067 43067
Summer- Peak 24796 26775 33658 38546 44386 45326 45508 45508
Summer- Off-Peak 23027 24732 31340 36228 42068 42948 43052 43052

PROJECTED DEMAND
Winter Peak 31200 33540 36060 38760 41670 44800 48160 51770
Winter- Off-Peak 20280 21801 23439 25194 27086 29120 31304 33651
Monsoon- Peak 28080 30186 32454 34884 37503 40320 43344 46593
Monsoon- Off-Peak 20280 21801 23439 25194 27086 29120 31304 33651
Summer- Peak 31200 33540 36060 38760 41670 44800 48160 51770
Summer- Off-Peak 21840 23478 25242 27132 29169 31360 33712 36239

DEFICIT (-ve figures) / SURPLUS (+ve figures) TO BE IMPORTED/ EXPORTED BY THE REGION
Winter Peak -6336 -6796 -2227 267 3562 1382 -1848 -5458
Winter- Off-Peak 2225 2220 7303 10742 15055 13891 11733 9386
Monsoon- Peak -3351 -3381 1029 3181 6037 4150 1360 -1889
Monsoon- Off-Peak 3269 3643 8498 11326 14909 13765 11763 9416
Summer- Peak -6404 -6765 -2402 -214 2716 526 -2652 -6262
Summer- Off-Peak 1187 1254 6098 9096 12899 11588 9340 6813

Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 7

 Annex-4.3
Projected Availability, Demand and Deficit/Surplus - Year wise for Southern Region

PROJECTED SURPLUS/ DEFICIT SCENARIO SOUTHERN REGION SR

Scenario Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

PROJECTED AVAILABILITY
Winter Peak 20963 22550 23340 26547 31552 33643 34346 34886
Winter- Off-Peak 16612 18128 18918 22007 27011 28994 29576 30024
Monsoon- Peak 22965 24439 25136 28086 32502 34459 35202 35772
Monsoon- Off-Peak 20790 22228 22925 25816 30232 32134 32817 33341
Summer- Peak 22236 23771 24515 27600 32311 34342 35072 35633
Summer- Off-Peak 18973 20454 21198 24195 28906 30855 31495 31987

PROJECTED DEMAND
Winter Peak 23100 24830 26690 28690 30840 33150 35640 38310
Winter- Off-Peak 15015 16140 17349 18649 20046 21548 23166 24902
Monsoon- Peak 20790 22347 24021 25821 27756 29835 32076 34479
Monsoon- Off-Peak 15015 16140 17349 18649 20046 21548 23166 24902
Summer- Peak 21945 23589 25356 27256 29298 31493 33858 36395
Summer- Off-Peak 16170 17381 18683 20083 21588 23205 24948 26817

DEFICIT (-ve figures) / SURPLUS (+ve figures) TO BE IMPORTED/ EXPORTED BY THE REGION
Winter Peak -2137 -2280 -3350 -2143 712 493 -1294 -3424
Winter- Off-Peak 1597 1988 1570 3358 6965 7446 6410 5123
Monsoon- Peak 2175 2092 1115 2265 4746 4624 3126 1293
Monsoon- Off-Peak 5775 6088 5577 7168 10186 10587 9651 8440
Summer- Peak 291 182 -841 345 3013 2849 1214 -762
Summer- Off-Peak 2803 3073 2515 4112 7318 7650 6547 5170

Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 8

 Annex-4.4
Projected Availability, Demand and Deficit/Surplus - Year wise for Eastern Region

PROJECTED SURPLUS/ DEFICIT SCENARIO EASTERN REGION ER

Scenario Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

PROJECTED AVAILABILITY
Winter Peak 11199 11794 15885 17392 18981 21675 23902 25753
Winter- Off-Peak 10096 10555 14080 15204 16793 19399 21626 23438
Monsoon- Peak 11384 12065 16323 18092 19495 21973 23938 25616
Monsoon- Off-Peak 10832 11445 15421 16998 18401 20835 22800 24458
Summer- Peak 11292 11930 16104 17742 19238 21824 23920 25685
Summer- Off-Peak 10464 11000 14750 16101 17597 20117 22213 23948

PROJECTED DEMAND
Winter Peak 8800 9330 9890 10480 11110 11780 12490 13240
Winter- Off-Peak 5720 6065 6429 6812 7222 7657 8119 8606
Monsoon- Peak 7920 8397 8901 9432 9999 10602 11241 11916
Monsoon- Off-Peak 5720 6065 6429 6812 7222 7657 8119 8606
Summer- Peak 8800 9330 9890 10480 11110 11780 12490 13240
Summer- Off-Peak 6160 6531 6923 7336 7777 8246 8743 9268

POWER TO BE EXPORTED
Winter Peak 2399 2464 5995 6912 7871 9895 11412 12513
Winter- Off-Peak 4376 4491 7651 8392 9572 11742 13508 14832
Monsoon- Peak 3464 3668 7422 8660 9496 11371 12697 13700
Monsoon- Off-Peak 5112 5381 8992 10186 11179 13178 14681 15852
Summer- Peak 2492 2600 6214 7262 8128 10044 11430 12445
Summer- Off-Peak 4304 4469 7827 8765 9820 11871 13470 14680

Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 9

 Annex-4.5
Projected Availability, Demand and Deficit/Surplus - Year wise for North-Eastern Region

PROJECTED SURPLUS/ DEFICIT SCENARIO NORTH_EASTERN REGION NER

Scenario Pre 2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

PROJECTED AVAILABILITY
Winter Peak 1451 1468 1536 1536 1872 2807 3845 4605
Winter- Off-Peak 1019 1036 1064 1064 1343 1594 1833 1985
Monsoon- Peak 1934 1950 2067 2067 2459 4244 6277 7797
Monsoon- Off-Peak 1826 1842 1949 1949 2326 3940 5774 7142
Summer- Peak 1775 1792 1890 1890 2270 3718 5354 6570
Summer- Off-Peak 1559 1576 1654 1654 2005 3111 4348 5260

PROJECTED DEMAND
Winter Peak 1300 1400 1510 1620 1740 1870 2010 2160
Winter- Off-Peak 845 910 982 1053 1131 1216 1307 1404
Monsoon- Peak 1170 1260 1359 1458 1566 1683 1809 1944
Monsoon- Off-Peak 845 910 982 1053 1131 1216 1307 1404
Summer- Peak 1300 1400 1510 1620 1740 1870 2010 2160
Summer- Off-Peak 910 980 1057 1134 1218 1309 1407 1512

POWER TO BE EXPORTED
Winter Peak 151 68 26 -84 132 937 1835 2445
Winter- Off-Peak 174 126 83 11 212 378 527 581
Monsoon- Peak 764 690 708 609 893 2561 4468 5853
Monsoon- Off-Peak 981 932 968 896 1195 2725 4468 5738
Summer- Peak 475 392 380 270 530 1848 3344 4410
Summer- Off-Peak 649 596 597 520 787 1802 2941 3748

Chapter: 4 Page : Ch. 4 / 10