Employment trends in ASEAN

countries
Sukti Dasgupta
Senior Specialist, ILO, Bangkok

Decent Work for All

ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 2006-2015

ASEAN - The economic crisis did have an impact.

But there was also a V-shaped economic recovery.
Most of ASEAN still growing moderately fast

Sources: ASEAN Finance and Macro-economic Surveillance Unit Database; national statistical offices.

Quarterly GDP growth (y-o-y, %)

In 2011, ASEAN countries continue to grow

fast, though little slower than 2010
Real gross domestic product, Q3 and Q4 2011 (12-month change, %)
10
8.9

8
6
5.2

4
3.4
2

5.9

6.1

6.5

3.7

3.6

2.5

0
-1.0
-2
-4
-6
-8

-9.0
Q3

Q4

-10
Thailand

Japan

Brunei Korea, Rep. Singapore Philippines Malaysia Viet Nam

Darussalam
of

Note: Brunei Darussalam figures represent Q2 and Q3.

Source: ILO: Asia-Pacific Labour Market Update (forthcoming, April 2012).

India

Indonesia

China

During the crisis unemployment rose

but it has since stabilized
Unemployment rate (%)

Sources: ILO Department of Statistics; national statistical offices.

but manufacturing continues

to shed jobs

ASEAN: Current unemployment situation

Unemployment rate, both sexes, ages 15+, most recent period (%)
7
6.4

6.6

3.1
3
2.5

2.6

0.6
0.1

Cambodia (2009)

Thailand (Q4 2011)

Singapore (Q3 2011)

Viet Nam (2009)

Malaysia (Dec 2011) Philippines (Q4 2011) Indonesia (Aug 2011)

In most countries, women have higher

unemployment rate.
Total

Men

Women

Indonesia

6.6

5.9

7.6

Philippines

6.4

6.7

6.1

Thailand

0.6

0.7

0.6

Vietnam

2.6

2.3

3.1

And so do Youth- example Indonesia, where

total unempl declining, but youth
unemployment increasing, .many youth are
first time job seekers and not contributing to
UI.
26
24
22
20
18
16
14

Youth

12

Total

10
8
6
4
2
0
2008

2009

2010

2011

INDONESIA YOUTH AND TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

There are many more who are in

vulnerable employment. Not covered by
UI.
Share of Vulnerable Employment - not covered by UI
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0

Total

40.0

Men

30.0

Women

20.0
10.0
0.0
Malaysia (Q3)

Philippines (Q4)

Thailand (Q4)

Indonesia (Aug)

Vietnam 2010

Snap shot of labour market in

developing ASEAN countries a
significant share in the red cell
requiring other forms of income support
Employed

Poor

NonNon-poor

Productively
employed

Unemployed

Work status and UI coverage

example from Vietnam (2010)
7.9 million contributing to UI scheme
High coverage in relatively short time.
15.1 million wage workers, so can extend to
potentially 15.1 million
Total employed- 49.5 million.
UI needed along with other income support and
social protection measures.

Structural Transformation towards

less manufacturing employment
In most ASEAN countries manufacturing as a share of total
employment is falling, while services share is rising.
This could reduce the share of wage workers more and
service sector tends to have more self employed
Share of employment in industry and services (%)

Sources: ILO calculations based CEIC Data Company data drawn from national statistical sources.

.this also has implications for overall

productivity growth, since productivity in
manufacturing is highest
Figure X: Output per worker by sector (constant 2000 US$)

Output per worker by sector (constant 2000 US$)

ASEAN productivity gains fall behind China and

India
Output per worker (constant 2009 US$)

Source: Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre Total Economy Database, January 2010.

productivity needs to be raised, also critical to

translate productivity gains into higher wages,
better working conditions and improved
employment prospects

Final remarks.

Though Asia stable and growing, global insecurity looms large still as
most countries in ASEAN still largely export dependent.

Unemployment rates low in most countries especially those with large rural
economies, but women and youth face higher unemployment prospects.

Critical to prepare and to have in place social protection measures for

workers and enterprises, ahead of crisis

But in developing ASEAN countries, such as Vietnam, only part of wage

workers likely to be covered by UI, since many are in informal employment
relationships or in self employment..

UI a welcome attempt to cover wage workers, needs to be complemented

with other measures for non wage workers, or those in informal economy.

Important therefore to strengthening the automatic stabilizers of

social protection (such as UI) and gradually building a basic social
protection floor

For UI to be truly beneficial, also

needed
Raising the skills level to foster a virtuous cycle
of higher productivity, employment of better
quality, income growth and better protection.
UI as part of ALMP well functioning
employment service centres critical.
Strengthened labour market information and
analysis in some ASEAN countries we still
have very little data to understand labour market
vulnerabilities.

ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 2006-2015

Decent Work for All

Thank you
For more information, please contact:
dasgupta@ilo.org