Professional Documents
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[ 2 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
Contents
Executive Summary
Section I: Introduction
12
15
20
22
27
Executive Summary
} The emerging markets (EMs) have provided major investment
opportunities over the last decadewhether in the equity, fixed
income or currency spaces.
} The global growth landscape and investment opportunity set have
changed significantly in recent years, but allocating to emerging
markets remains, in our view, a core investment strategy.
} As emerging market economies have grown and converged with
their more developed counterparts, the long-timeand much
trumpetedEM diversification benefit for investors has, in our
view, somewhat abated. We believe that diversification in itself
no longer provides an adequate justification for investing in
emerging markets.
} At the same time, while a macro focus might once have been
sufficient for crafting an effective EM investment strategy,
investors must now balance both macro and micro considerations
when approaching these markets. In this regard, emerging
markets have come to more closely resemble their developed
market (DM) counterpartsand accordingly, investors must drill
down to the sector, company and security levels to achieve their
investment goals.
About Us
The BlackRock Investment Institute leverages the firms expertise across asset classes, client groups and regions.
TheInstitutes goal is to produce information that makes BlackRocks portfolio managers better investors and helps deliver
positive investment results for clients.
Executive Director
Lee Kempler
Chief Strategist
Ewen Cameron Watt
The opinions expressed are those of the BlackRock Investment Instititute as of August 2011, and may change as subsequent conditions vary.
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
} We believe that close monitoring of political and corporate governance issues
is essential. We also think that investors should be encouraged by the broad
improvements that have been made in these areas across the emerging markets
even as we acknowledge that enhancements must continue to be implemented.
} Inflation, income inequality and the interconnection of these two realities to social
unrest still represent a significant long-term challenge to EM growth. Faced with the
prospects of rising rates or sputtering growth, many EM policymakers will, in our
view, likely allow for the appreciation of their currencies.
} We believe that there will be a switch over time from economic policies based on
mercantilism and foreign exchange reserve accumulation towards domestically led
growth. This long-term trend will have profound implications over time for global
asset allocation in particular, as lower growth rates of reserve accumulation force
the burden of funding Western fiscal deficits onto the domestic saver constituency.
} Among other issues that pose significant potential limits to ongoing growth are
natural resource constraints, the middle-income trap, volatile financial capital
inflows, managed exchange rates (and potential asset misallocation arising from
this process) and shallow domestic financial market infrastructure. We contend
that, in general terms, these are constraints on medium-term growth rates and
not insurmountable barriers.
} On a more optimistic note, the next decade will be marked by new global leader
companies emerging from inside these countries to join the existing group of such
leaders from more developed markets. Success stories will be joined by new names
in industries such as pharmaceuticals, machinery and food manufacturing.
} We also see a key trend in the deepening of domestic financial systems as welfare
programs develop to meet the longer-term challenges of aging populations. Deeper
domestic financial systems should provide greater ability to absorb challenges from
short-term capital flows and the resulting macroeconomic volatilities.
} One particular issue to address is the inconsistent linkage between high growth
and high returns to investors. Much corporate growth is financed through equity
issuance, given the general lack of depth in domestic bond markets. This often
leads to dilution of existing stakeholders both at individual and national stock
market levels, and caps returns per share or unit of investment.
} While a number of challenges loom, we believe that the emerging markets share
of world financial assets will increase materially over the next decade both through
price appreciation and capital issuance. Developed market companies activities will
in general terms continue to skew towards these economies. In short, by 2020 the
investment world is expected to be spending even more time on the emerging markets
than is the case today. In this new landscape, developments in Beijing, Mumbai
and Sao Paolo will, in our view, require as much study as those in New York,
London and Frankfurt.
[3]
[ 4 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
Section I: Introduction
For more than two decades, emerging markets (EMs) have
generated some of the most exciting investment opportunities
globally. As economies in Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe
began to grow at rates that far outpaced more developed countries,
new economic reforms and trade liberalization opened the door
to Western investment. Meanwhile, increasing urbanization
and a burgeoning middle class gave rise to a new generation
sheets and younger work forces. China and India together comprise
and Taiwan, with GDP per capita of $22,000 apiece, have higher
are a number of EMs with very low ratios, such as India, with
GDP per capita of just $1,500. The frontier countries are even
more extreme, ranging from the oil states of Kuwait and
Qatarwhich are among the wealthiest in the worldto
African states with GDP per capital of less than $1000.
currency markets come in all shapes, sizes and form with pegged
just over 2%. There are huge differences between Russia and
1 Source: Merrill Lynch, BP, CIA World Factbook, IMF World Economic Outlook, MSCI. 2 As an example, EM vol in US dollar terms at the peak of the credit crisis spiked to 0.69, compared to
MSCI World vol of 0.43.
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
[5]
newfound global stature was their rapid recovery from the 2008
markets would not have bounced back were it not for Chinas
Colonial era. In short, the West got lucky and the rest of the world
did not. However, since the mid-1980s the tide, in our view, has
turned, with the emerging economies surviving the wrenching
financial crises that lasted from the devaluation of the Mexican
peso in December 1994 until the Argentinian devaluation of 2001
to emerge with growing shares of world output and capital markets.
University in his 2010 magnum opus Why The West Rules For
Now traced relative indices of social development between East
and West back to 14,000 BC, and Professor Angus Maddison,
Asian economies.
In more recent times, the period from the dawning of the Industrial
Revolution in the UK around 1709 (dated to the construction
of a still-standing and remarkable cast iron bridge across the
IronBridge Gorge in Shropshire) saw a considerable acceleration
of the West relative to the East. From that time, the US and Western
Europe embarked upon sustained and unprecedented rises in
% GROWTH OF GDP
8%
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
89
92
World
95
98
01
04
Developed Markets
07
10
13
16
Emerging Markets
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011.
Developed Markets
64%
11%
9%
4%
6%
3%
2%
Developing Asia
2000
2010
63%
15%
9%
4%
4%
3%
2%
ME and N. Africa
52%
24%
9%
5%
4%
3%
2%
CIS
2015 (Estimates)
47%
29%
8%
5%
4%
3%
3%
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011. Note: Shares based on purchasing power parity.
3 Emerging markets and developed markets were historically defined by respective measures of economic development. Today, the boundary between these two groups is only loosely definedfor example,
Taiwan and South Korea are clearly developed nations in all senses. We take the term emerging to refer to countries whose stock markets are not components of the MSCI World Equity Index, and
developed as those who are solely included in this index. This investment-defined differentiation, though far from perfect, is convenient for investors in terms of portfolio management determination.
[ 6 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
the domestic consumer base (Figure 4), thus setting the stage
18% within the same timeframe. The rest of the emerging worlds
suggesting that there are around 1.7 billion people in the emerging
economies that earn between US$5,000 to US$20,000 per
annum. In terms of consumption, EMs are estimated to have
surpassed the US in 2006 (Figure 5) and DMs in 2008, and the
potential for further household consumption is impressive.
2020
2030
North America
5602
26%
5863
17%
5837
10%
Europe
8138
38%
10301
29%
11337
20%
1534
7%
2315
7%
3117
6%
Asia Pacific
4952
23%
14798
42%
32596
59%
Sub-Sahara Africa
256
1%
448
1%
827
1%
World
4%
1321
4%
1966
4%
99%
35046
100%
55680
100%
Source: OECD Development Centre Working Paper No. 285. Note: Figures in millions of 2005
PPP dollars.
5,000
4,000
40%
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
50
60
70
80
90
Emerging Markets
00
% OF GLOBAL CONSUMPTION
WORKING-AGE POPULATION
(MILLIONS)
796
21278
36
32
28
24
20
16
90
92
94
96
98
00
US
02
04
06
08
Emerging Markets
10
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
Economic Factors
[7]
affordable prices.
But with the worst of the crisis behind us (we hope), it is notable
that sovereign debt concerns are mostly a developed market
phenomenon (Figure 6). Emerging market debt and deficit levels
look benign by comparisoncompare Japans 220%5 debt/GDP
ratio to Indias, the most debt-laden BRIC country, at 69%5.
Further, while budget deficits are forecast to diminish globally
over the next five years, developed markets should continue to
250%
200
150
100
50
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011.
5 Source: OECD.
Russia
China
Brazil
India
UK
US
Ireland
Greece
Japan
[ 8 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
40
% OF GDP GROWTH
35
30
25
Trend
20
15
10
5
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: UBS.
China 18%
Brazil 16%
Korea 14%
Taiwan 11%
South Africa 7%
Russia 7%
India 7%
Mexico 4%
Other 15%
important engines of global growth over the last 10 years (Figure 7),
middle class larger than any before seen in world history (and
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
[9]
limited control over its own monetary policy beyond the clumsy
financial crisis.
Along with the usual problems that inflation can cause in any
the following pages, well provide some context around the bear
and bull cases for the country before outlining some investment
about potential unrest that rising prices might cause. At the same
time, Chinese income inequality has grown (as seen by the rising
78
82
86
90
94
98
02
06
10
15%
YOY MONTHLY CPI AND PPI
GINI COEFFICIENT
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
10
-5
-10
-15
the world. The data shows that this growth in investment has
12/99
12/01
12/03
12/05
Source: Bloomberg.
12/07
12/09
12/11
[ 10 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
YOY CONTRIBUTION
TO CHINA GDP
16%
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
98
01
04
07
Net Exports
Gross Capital Formation
10
Consumption
So what would this unwinding look like? Our base case sees
trend growth slowing towards 7-8% real growth over the next
two years, down from the current level of 9-10%. This reflects a
number of constraints to growth, including the funding for deposit
growth, the declining efficiency of credit expansion in generating
the country has already traveled. Over the last 30 years, Chinas
GDP has grown at an incredible pace. Figure 12 below compares
the relative growth rates of China with the United States. In 1980,
1990 INTERNATIONAL
GEARY-KHAMIS DOLLARS
20,000
China (2010)
10,000
China (1980)
China (1990)
China (2000)
0
1700
1725
1750
1775
1800
1825
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
US
Source: HSBC Global Research, Maddison data. Note: GDP per capita is in 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars.
2000
China
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
[ 11 ]
matched that of the United States in the 1850s, and so on, until
The primary reason for this growth explosion is that in the latter
half of the 20th century, China, for the first time, became truly part
of the international community, gaining access to new capital
would point out that while there certainly are governance problems
Chinese economy.
China bull would point out that the quality of the official data
will slow in the coming years, at least in part due to the financial
problems we described, but we are far from calling for any sort
with caution, but we also believe that China is, and will remain,
in the world.
[ 12 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
of valuations.
right thing, or if they are not comfortable with the legal and
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
[ 13 ]
and conflicts continue in places like Libya, Syria and Yemen. Out
of the many elections this year, the one in Russia is most likely
jostle for position, while in Peru the stock market fell by more
STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OF MONTHLY RETURNS
Turkey
Poland
15
12
9
6
S. Korea Hungary
Taiwan
Czech Rep.
S. Africa Malaysia
Brazil
Russia
China
Thailand
Philippines
Peru
India
Chile Colombia Mexico
Egypt
Morocco
11
13
GOVERNANCE RANK
15
17
19
21
[ 14 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
hard to disprove.
Corporate Governance
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2/02
2/04
2/06
2/08
2/10
2/12
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
Finland
Australia
Canada
Denmark
Chile
S. Korea
Germany
New Zealand
Netherlands
Austria
China
USA
Thailand
Malaysia
Russia
Peru
Czech Republic
Israel
UK
France
Indonesia
Philippines
Japan
Belgium
Brazil
Croatia
Colombia
Poland
India
S. Africa
Mexico
Turkey
Spain
Argentina
Ireland
Hungary
Italy
Egypt
Venezuela
Portugal
Greece
Figure 15: The BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index Ranks a Number of EMs Highly
Source: BlackRock.
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
[ 15 ]
in that country.
the global economy. These countries must also try to avoid the
[ 16 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
3/05
3/06
3/07
3/08
3/09
3/10
experiencing turgid growth and has its own problems, not least
sovereign debt and banking risk. The medium-term outlook for
CRB 2ND DERIVATIVE
EXPORT IMPORT
PRICE DIFFERENCE
Convergence of Markets
3/11
At the same time, the recent financial crisis and other recent
Source: BlackRock.
to consumer and producer price inflation in low- to middleincome economies (Figure 16 above). This speed is a result of
the relatively high weightings of basic foodstuffs and energy
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
worldfor China and its population of more than 1.3 billion people,
creating employment and keeping social unrest at bay is the
1/95
1/91
1/99
1/03
1/07
6/11
1 Year
Turkey
Thailand
Taiwan
South Africa
Russia
Poland
Philippines
Peru
Morocco
Mexico
Malaysia
Korea
Indonesia
India
Hungary
Egypt
Czech Rep.
Colombia
China
Chile
Brazil
Emerg. Mkts
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
MSCI
RETURN
CORRELATION
Figure 17: Correlations Between EMs and the MSCI World Have Been High
3 Years
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
Sweden
US $ RETURN
US
Denmark
Switzerland
4
3
Japan
Norway
France
Germany
Finland
Netherlands
UK
Australia
New Zealand
Spain
Belgium
the strongest in the world (10% per year annualized over 10 years)
Italy
[ 17 ]
but, despite this, the Chinese stock market has not significantly
outperformed that of Hungary, which has been one of the slowest-
1
1
REAL GDP
and developed market equities was around 0.7 as of June 30, 2011.
18,000
1,500
15,000
1,200
12,000
15,000
5,000
60
20,000
10,000
80
25,000
40
20
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
China Real GDP
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
300
equities has also slowly reduced one of the key sources of return
600
6,000
3,000
900
9,000
[ 18 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
400
1,800
350
1,600
300
1,400
250
200
1,200
150
1,000
100
800
50
0
600
12/98
12/01
12/04
12/07
12/10 12/12
finance. As such, earnings per share often lag sales per share in
fast-growing economies and dilute overall market returns.
So, from an equity perspective, what is critical is to find companies,
not countries, within the emerging market space that can grow
earnings at sustainable rates over time. We are extremely skeptical
of arguments that overly rely on EM growth rates to justify
expected rates of return. That said, while rapid rates of GDP
growth do not directly lead to equity market outperformance,
recession and GDP contraction constitute a major headwind for
equity marketsand one that is difficult for single companies
to overcome.
oligopoly, or compete.
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
16%
% OF EM IN MSCI AC WORLD
[ 19 ]
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: MSCI.
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
chase growth. This has been evident in the Internet and social
networking boom recently, as an example. Early identification
of winners and long holding periods seem to be the message.
Therefore, a good understanding of the micro-level dynamics
and a view on the performance and direction of individual assets
and sector or market-wide issues will play an important role in
the total performance of an investment.
brands, for example, have performed strongly over the last couple
theme for several years and too much money seeking exposure
Country World index is just 13.8%, as of July 15, 2011 (Figure 22).
[ 20 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
The EM Trilemma
too loose (Figures 2325). Credit growth has also been vigorous
12%
10
Thailand
Philippines
Korea
Indonesia
Israel
S. Africa
Turkey
Russia
Poland
Czech
Hungary
Peru
Chile
0
-2
Brazil
10
8
50%
Thailand
Philippines
Korea
Indonesia
S. Africa
Israel
Turkey
Russia
Poland
Czech
Hungary
Peru
Colombia
Chile
Mexico
Brazil
40
30
20
10
0
-10
HU
RO
CZ
KR
SA
TW
CL
IS
PD
MY
PH
TH
RU
CO
SG
CH
ID
BZ
IN
HK
TU
SUGGESTED VS.
ACTUAL POLICY RATES
12%
Latest
1 Month Back
3 Months Back
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
[ 21 ]
0.010
Semi-Pegged
Peg
Source: BlackRock. Note: Average volatility of daily changes in currency values vs. USD, since 2008.
[ 22 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
goals in various ways. Some countries like Brazil and India have
the logic of the Trilemma, capital controls may also suffer from
shortcomings. Destabilizing capital movements can be combated
must exist.
with controls, but there is evidence that they may be eroded over
7
7 Guonan Ma and Robert N McCauley, Do Chinas capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalization, BIS Working Papers No 233, August 2007.
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
[ 23 ]
macroeconomic stability.
Indeed, as the financial crisis and subsequent recession
transitioned to recovery, we saw primary energy demand
from non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development) countries outstrip that of OECD (a proxy for DM)
countries for the first time, illustrating rapidly increasing EM
industrial production and consumption.
South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have shown over the past
few decades, while it is possible to make the leap from lowerincome to higher, it is clearly not easy, and many countries
seem to continually fail at the transition.
all have highly developed banking systems. They all have world-
high in all four cases, as are educational standards and the rule
Brazil, Mexico, Russia and others, while having made great strides
economies to a degree.
trap, and of course today all eyes are on Chinas ability to avoid
from the social need to deliver key services at price levels that
[ 24 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
GROWTH RATE
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Source: Penn World Tables, version 7.0. Each dot represents a single country over a decade.
Note: 10-year average growth rates vs. level of real per capita GDP, 1950-2009.
The data the paper presents also strongly hints that (historically,
In the end, there are myriad risks to the sustainability of the growth
rates we have seen in EM markets in the recent past. In our
120
90
and sustained price spikes) and others are more serious (the
60
30
0
00.000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Japan
Canada
France
Germany
China
Source: Penn World Tables, version 7.0. Each dot represents a country over a 1-year period.
Note: Data for 19502009.
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
[ 25 ]
good analogy for the technical asset price inflation seen in the
emerging markets arena in recent years. A variety of factors
including greatly improved country and company fundamentals
Figure 29: Flows into US- and EuropeanDomiciled ETFs Have Generally Been Strong
ASIA, 19942011
% OF TOTAL
CAP STRUCTURE
100%
80
60
40
20
0
1/98
1/94
1/02
1/06
1/11
1/06
1/11
% OF TOTAL
CAP STRUCTURE
100%
80
60
40
20
0
ETFs have seen much greater asset flows than have debt-focused
1/94
100%
% OF TOTAL
CAP STRUCTURE
80
60
40
20
0
1/84
% OF TOTAL
CAP STRUCTURE
FLOWS ($M)
5,000
0
-10,000
US-Domiciled ETF Flows
1/09
1/10
1/00
1/04
1/08
7/11
1/08
7/11
60
40
20
0
1/88
Fixed Income
1/08
1/96
80
1/84
-5,000
1/07
1/92
100%
$10,000
Source: BlackRock.
1/88
Figure 29: Flows into US- and EuropeanDomiciled ETFs Have Generally Been Strong
1/06
1/02
1/98
6/11
1/92
1/96
1/00
Liquid Assets
1/04
Equities
[ 26 ] A r e eme r g i n g ma r k e t s t h e ne x t de v e l o p ed ma r k e t s ? A u g u s t 2 0 1 1
In fact, bank loans have historically been the Asian issuers primary
B l ac k r o c k i n v e s t men t i n s t i t u t e
[ 27 ]
Hard Currency
Equities
} We believe that brand-name companies with strong competitive
domestic/regional positions and some significant barrier to
entry (this would include DM companies such as Burberry
and Daimler) will continue to prosper.
} We suggest that investors seek out potential or actual worldleader companies with a sustainable technological edge.
} We believe that companies with limited competition by virtue
of domestic business conditionsparticularly certain
frontier market companieswill do well.
} We would suggest avoiding financial companies in countries
where financial capital flows are material.
} Greater China represents an important growth theme, in our
view. Beneficiaries in this theme might include Taiwanese
domestic financials and Singapore wealth management
(and the Singapore dollar), among other examples.
} Another potential opportunity, in our view, are the winners
from improving corporate governance conditionsRussian
equities representing a notable example.
Fixed Income
} EM fixed income in general can potentially benefit from
massive asset allocation shifts in favor of income and carry
(excess return) based global investments, and portfolio
re-allocations away from developed world investments.
} EM fixed income also potentially benefits from the favorable
Local Markets
} We believe that it is very important to determine if you are
taking interest rate or currency risk when investing in local
markets. In general, these are currency plays by virtue of
their short duration.
Interest Rates
} We would suggest investing in high-yielding countries with
solid fundamentals. In particular, we recommend focusing on
countries that offer positive real rates (i.e., return adjusted
for inflation)9. For example, South Africa offers positive real
rates and good fundamentals. In Latin America, real rates are
higher, particularly in Mexico and Brazil.
} We believe that short-duration fixed income has the potential
to generate high risk-adjusted returns.
} We recommend a focus primarily on the larger markets,
depending on an investors time horizon and liquidity profile.
Currencies
} We believe that investors should seek out currencies supported
by high carry and/or favorable valuation metrics.
} We suggest that investors view currencies as a stand-alone
asset class.
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