Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Objectives
To be able to understand the IMPORTANCE OF FORECASTING in planning and target setting.
Projection
l
l
l
l
l
Targeting
l
GROWTH
Projection VS Targeting
Start
End
Projection VS Targeting
GROWTH
Projection
Start
End
Projection VS Targeting
Target
GROWTH
Projection
Start
End
Misconception
Target
B
GROWTH
C
A
Start
End
Projection
Types of Forecasting
Quantitative
Qualitative
AMM Formula:
Where:
y = sample
n = number of samples
Total ( )
424.03%
n
5
Arithmetic Mean 84.81%
Continuation. . .
2nd Go to Insert tab. Go to
Chart subgroup and click Line
graph
VOILA!
Illustration
Net Enrollment Rate
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
School Year
Actual Data
Forecast Data
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
ASL Forecast uses the average (mean) increase or decrease in the value of the variable under
consideration
ASL Formula:
=
Where:
+1 = 2nd point
= 1st point
n = number of samples
1(
+1 )
1
(2 1 )+(3 2 )+(+1 )
1
Computation
School Year
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
Actual Data
0.722922111525
0.72967330711875
0.89970205848125
0.9605329321625
0.9274215416
Difference
=C5-C4
=C6-C5
=C7-C6
=C8-C7
Computation
Forecast Data
0.722922111525
=F4+$I$6
=F5+$I$6
=F6+$I$6
=F7+$I$6
=F8+$I$6
=F9+$I$6
=F10+$I$6
Total
n-1
Increment
=SUM(D5:D8)
4
=I4/I5
Y2 - Y1
Y3 - Y2
Y4 - Y3
Y5 - Y4
Forecast Data
72.29%
77.40%
82.52%
87.63%
92.74%
97.85%
102.97%
108.08%
Total
20.45%
n
4
Increment 5.11%
Continuation. . .
2nd Go to Insert tab. Go to
Chart subgroup and click Line
chart.
Continuation. . .
3rd To add Forecast data, right click the generated Line chart then click Select Data.
Continuation. . .
4th A window will appear. Click Add
Continuation. . .
5th A window will appear. Click
worksheet and press Enter.
Continuation. . .
Continuation. . .
6th On the Series values, click
Enter and click Ok.
and highlight all the data from the Forecast Data, then press
Continuation. . .
7th Click Ok to generate graph.
VOILA!
Illustration
Net Enrollment Rate
105%
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
School Year
Actual Data
Forecast Data
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
=
Where:
+1 = 2nd point
= 1st point
n = number of samples
1(
+1 )
1
(2 1 ) (3 2 )
(
)
+
+ +1
1
2
Computation
School Year
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
Actual Data
0.722922111525
0.72967330711875
0.89970205848125
0.9605329321625
0.9274215416
Difference
Growth Rate
=C5-C4
=C6-C5
=C7-C6
=C8-C7
=D5/C4
=D6/C5
=D7/C6
=D8/C7
Computation
Forecast Data
=C4
=G4*(1+0.0689)
=G5*(1+0.0689)
=G6*(1+0.0689)
=G7*(1+0.0689)
=G8*(1+0.0689)
=G9*(1+0.0689)
=G10*(1+0.0689)
Total
=SUM(E5:E8)
n
4
Average Growth Rate =J4/J5
(Y2 - Y1)/Y1
(Y3 - Y2)/Y2
(Y4 - Y3)/Y3
(Y5 - Y4)/Y4
Forecast Data
72.29%
76.28%
80.48%
84.91%
89.59%
94.53%
99.74%
105.23%
Total
n
Average Growth Rate
27.55%
5
5.51%
VOILA!
Illustration
Net Enrollment Rate
120.00%
115.00%
110.00%
105.00%
100.00%
95.00%
90.00%
85.00%
80.00%
75.00%
70.00%
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
School Year
Actual Data
Forecast Data
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
= +
Where:
y = Dependent variable
a = Intercept
b = Slope
x = Independent variable
Where:
=
=
= Mean of Y
= Mean of X
Continuation. . .
2nd Click dropdown list named Manage
and choose Excel Add-ins and click Go
Continuation. . .
3rd A window will appear. Check Analysis
ToolPak then click Ok
Continuation. . .
2nd A window will pop out. Click Regression, then press OK
Continuation. . .
3rd Another window will pop out. In Input Y Range, Click
press Enter.
Continuation. . .
4th In Input X Range, Click
data, highlight up to 5).
Continuation. . .
5th Click the dot at Output Range then
Continuation. . .
5th Click Ok to generate analysis.
Generated output
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.893442622
R Square
0.798239718
Adjusted R Square 0.730986291
Standard Error
0.058731958
Observations
5
FOCUS HERE!
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
y = 0.656 + 0.064X
1
3
4
SS
MS
F
Significance F
0.040941888 0.040941888 11.86913 0.041081182
0.010348329 0.003449443
0.051290217
Lower 95%
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
0.460058617 0.852127072 0.460058617 0.852127072
0.004879305 0.123092392 0.004879305 0.123092392
Summary
Identifying a and b and the SSL equation of the line.
a
b
Coefficients
Intercept 0.656092845
X Variable 10.063985849
y = a + bx
y = 0.656 + 0.064x
Computation
School Year
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
Actual Data
0.722922111525
0.72967330711875
0.89970205848125
0.9605329321625
0.9274215416
X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Forecast
=0.65609+0.06399*C3
=0.65609+0.06399*C4
=0.65609+0.06399*C5
=0.65609+0.06399*C6
=0.65609+0.06399*C7
=0.65609+0.06399*C8
=0.65609+0.06399*C9
=0.65609+0.06399*C10
a
b
0.656092844619375
0.063985848519375
Continuation. . .
VOILA!
Illustration
Net Enrollment Rate
120%
115%
110%
105%
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
Actual Data
2013-2014
Forecast
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
Where:
= actual data
= forecast data
= number of samples
+ + +
Computation
School Year
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
Actual Data
0.722922111525
0.72967330711875
0.89970205848125
0.9605329321625
0.9274215416
Forecast
0.72007869313875
0.784064541658125
0.8480503901775
0.912036238696875
0.97602208721625
MAD
Difference
=ABS(B17-C17)
=ABS(B18-C18)
=ABS(B19-C19)
=ABS(B20-C20)
=ABS(B21-C21)
=AVERAGE(D17:D21)
ASL
School Year
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
SSL
School Year
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
Targeting
Types of Targeting
Top-Down Targeting
Bottom-Up Targeting
Objective-Based Targeting
Top-Down Targeting
Top-Down Targeting is targeting undertaken first by top management and is subsequently
apportioned to the field operating units
Bottom-Up Targeting
Bottoms-up Targeting is targeting undertaken by first gathering all the inputs from the field
operating units and aggregating them into consolidated total
Illustration
Objectives-Based Targeting
Objectives-Based Targeting is targeting based on the desired or planned objectives.
The desired objective can be based problems, needs, potential problems and opportunities
THINGS TO REMEMBER!
APPRORIATENESS
Differentiate
between what we
need to know vs
what is nice to
know
Only collect/use
data that you will
use that is
relevant.
RISK OF BIAS
ACCURACY AND
PRECISION
Ensure that the
question or tool
asks what you
are wanting to
find out
(accurate)
ATTRIBUTING
CAUSALITY