2012. 08.

01

POSRI

,
2
, (hyungkeun.park@posri.re.kr)

[ ]
1. , ?
2. 2 ?
3. , ?
[1]
[2]

 , 2

Executive Summary

- 2011 29.7GW, 15%
240%
- ,
, OCI

, 2
- FirstSolar 2 CdTe 0.68
1 5 1

- CIGS CdTe

2020 2 1/3
- ,
Grid Parity ,

1:
-
,

2:
- Joint Venture, License-In,

- 1
,
harvest
3:
- 2

 , 2

1. , ?

,
[1]
-

2011 29.7GW 32.3%

, 15%

,
1.6 90

/ 11 5~6GW ,
12 1 14GW , 240% .

Top Tier

11~12 , , ,

2 CdTe FirstSolar
, OCI
[2]

, ,
-

,
,
FIT()

1
.

2 ,
4

 , 2

6 10 ,
FIT
< >

technology

technology

1st Gen. : Crystalline silicon

2nd Gen. : Thin film tech.

3rd Gen. : OPV1 )/ DSSC2)

,
silicon

,
, polysilicon

Crystallized Silicon (c-Si)

, polysilicon

Amorphous silicon(a-Si),
Cadmium Telluride (CdTe),
Copper Indium Gallium
Selenium(CIGS)

Organic Photovoltaic Solar
cell (OPV), Dye Sensitized
Solar Cell (DSSC),
Nano-crystal

Note: 1) Organic Photovoltaic (), 2) Dye Sensitized Solar Cell (), : Monitor Group

2. 2 ?
,

Grid Parity
-

CIGS
20.3% CdTe . 2~3
14% CdTe

2015 14%, 0.9$

, CdTe

,
. (
60% )

 , 2

Dow Chemical NuvoSun Shingle BIPV

(Building-Integrated-Photo-Voltaics, )
,
< >

: Lux Research

FirstSolar CdTe

-

2 CdTe
2005 5 1

11.6% (14~16%) ,
$0.68/Wp ( $1.1/Wp)

,
Solar Farm

<FirstSolar >
13.4%

13.2%

<FirstSolar >
2.77

: Billion USD

2.56

12.3%
2.07

6.4%

1.25

0.91

4.0%
0.50
0.16

2.7%
0.13
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0.01
9.8%

2006

32.1%
2007

0.62
43.7%

0.81
31.6%

49.6%
2008

0.50
18.0%

2009

2010

2011

: FirstSolar

 , 2

CIGS
,
-

CIGS R&D,

TSMC Stion 5, Dow Nuvosun 4.7,

SK Heliovolt 5 CIGS

Saint-Gobain Avancis ,
400MW

CIGS
-

2 CdTe FirstSolar
CIGS

CIGS 10%
,

2 , 2020 33%
-

(EPIA) 1%
CIGS 12% 2020 CdTe, a-Si 2
33%
< >

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Emerging & CPV

CIGS
CdTe
a-Si
c-Si

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

: 2009 Navigant Consulting, EPIA

 , 2

3. , ?
,
1) , 2)
, 3)

1:

RPS
RPS
Downstream
-

2012 , RPS
2%

POOL


-

,
POOL ,

2:

1

CIGS
-

CIGS

Stion, Heliovolt , Miasole,

Nuvosun

 , 2

3:

,
1
,
-

FirstSolar CdTe ,

, R&D

-

R&D

3 ,
2020

, .

 , 2

[ 1]
< >
90,000

< >
350,000

: MW

120,000

: MT
104,291

77,265

80,000

300,000

Policy-driven
70,000

Moderate

62,095

60,000

250,000

100,000

Polisilicon Demand

83,901

Polysilicon Supply (6N~9N)

80,000

Balance ()

200,000

50,000
40,204
40,000

38,822
31,890

60,000

150,000

40,000

36,440

30,000
100,000

20,205
20,000

50,000

7,437

10,000

278

578

1,575

2000

2003

2006

20,000

8,328
-9,219

-4,150

2009

2012E

2015E

-20,000
2008

2009

2010

: EPIA,

2011

2012E

2013E

: Solar&Energy,

[ 2]

KCC

4,300 3ton 2011 12

16 2011 12 5ton

LG

(2013 9N capa 5ton, 2ton )

SK

2009 , 2011 11

1 , 1ton 2013

2012 1 1ton , 2013

2011 11 A 1ton

2011 11 3ton

2010 4

: ,

[]
- Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2016, European Photovoltaic Industry
Association, 2012
- Solar Generation 6, European Photovoltaic Industry Association, 2011
- , , , , 2012.6.14
- Strong , , , 2012.2.13
- Sorting through the Maze of CIGS, Lux Research, 2012.11
- , , , , 2012.5.1
- Breakthroughs in Solar Power, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Presentation, 2012.4.5