Dingyi Chen

ATMS 211
Dec.12, 2013
Final Paper: From ENSO Event Impacted by Global Warming
to jeopardy on China Agriculture
ENSO, or El Nino-Southern Oscillation event, are referred to as intense shift on El Nino
and La Nina event. In El Nino event, trade winds reverse direction and drag warm water from
western Pacific Ocean back to the east1. However on the eastern side there is no or weak
upwelling of cold water possible1. This oceanic circulation occurs in every 2 to 10 years1.
However, La Nina, on the opposite of El Nino conditions, represents a stronger or more
extreme version of the normal circulation in the tropical Pacific2. Strong easterly winds
drag warm water west, so warm surface water accumulate in the Central and Western
Pacific2.

Figure 1.

Demonstration of La Nina Conditions, Normal Conditions and El Nino

Conditions(Source: NOAA3)

When ENSO event occurs, both eastern and western Pacific coast area will experience
extreme change in rainfall and temperature. Although this topic has discussed over decades,
there is still no consensus on whether and how Global Warming can affect intensive ENSO

effect. However, a new paper now published in Nature suggests that robust projected
changes in precipitation anomalies during El Nino years are primarily determined by a
nonlinear response to surface global warming4.
Different form the previous analyze methods, this research groups set up 2 classes of
models for each 4 different cases. To make a simple clarification, I will focus on the case of
1% CO2 (a simple scenario in which greenhouse gases are increased by 1% per year
compounded4) and its response to precipitation.

Figure 2.

Multi-model average of difference between twentieth-century and twenty-

first-century filtered ST and precipitation anomalies in El Nino years, using the 1% CO2
scenario (Source: Nature5)
On these two pictures, it is obvious that with the in the central Pacific (circled in blue)
where is strongly affected by El Nino event will experience more wet and warm weather.
However in Indonesia (circled in green) will experience much drier weather.
Therefore it turns out that global warming due to the increasing concentration of carbon
dioxide will aggregate the ENSO event. Since in El Nino years, Indonesia experiences drier
weather, does China also suffer drought? In fact it is not completely right. To explain this
question, we should introduce the concept of monsoon.
Monsoon is a seasonal reversal in the surface winds caused by large-scale differential
heating of land and ocean surfaces6. Similar in India and Southeast Asia, China also has its

monsoon system, but it is more complex because of the vast area of ocean and continent. As
the Figure 3 shown below, in summer East China is spontaneously affected by both Indian
Monsoon and East Asian Monsoon. Meantime, it can be also easily influenced by ENSO
event since it is located on the Western Pacific Coastal Area.

Figure 37. Monsoon in China. Many factors affect the Monsoon

Figure 4. The Walker Circulation in El Nino condition8

In El Nino years, as explained at first, the warm sea surface water accumulates in the
Eastern Pacific, heating the air through convection and making it warm and wet. Therefore
mild air mass stays in the Central Pacific (See the right one in Figure 1). So unlikely normal
years that mild air can move into North China in summer, it is so weak that it moves
backwards to South China when confronting with continental air mass for over months. It
may lead to the dangerous situation that South China is in fierce flooding while North China
is in deadly drought. One of the extreme floods caused by these reasons is 1998 Yangtze
River Floods.

Figure 5. SST on Jan.20, 1998 (Source: NOAA) 9

Figure 6. Global Monthly Precipitation Anomaly in Jun 199810

Figure 5 and 6 shows the cause and effect of that flooding. At that year, the El Nino event
was very severe because the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature was
over 5 degrees Celsius higher than that in normal years, however in Western Pacific Ocean
nearby Indonesia the Sea Surface Temperature is lower than 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. The moist
air was stuck at Central and Eastern Pacific, which makes it hard to move further into
Western Pacific bringing rainfall to inland China. So, as the result shown, in June most
precipitaion is in South China and only a little is in North China.
With the global warming, people believe that such violent flooding will be more
frequent. Some researchers point out that precipitation in China is likely to increase during
the next 50 yr, with a projected nationwide increase of 2 to 3% by 2020 and 5 to 7% by
2050.11 Southeastern coastal regions will most likely experience the most signicant increase
in annual rainfall.11 More precipitation in South China will increase pest reproduction and
many crops will be died from the diseases12.
However in North China it is totally different. A report suggests that water shortage will
still last in North China.13 From Figure 7 we can find that some north areas in China are in
severe drought due to the global warming. Since they are located further in the continent, it is
very hard to get moist air from the ocean. Additional influence by global warming and ENSO
events will aggregate the drought. North Gobi Desert will fast expend to these areas and
many lands will not be acceptable to grow grains.
To be worse, although depleting water table for irrigation will accelerate soil runoff,
some farmers living in rural areas still want to grow crops. For them to be a farmer is the only
way to get rid of poverty. They will not have chance to raise children and families once they

lose this job.

Undoubtedly China is facing the most difficult challenges ever than before. As a result of
climate change, the water resource imbalance will range from many problems in agriculture.
To solve this problem, we can try to plot some diagrams to find out which part we could
Region

Beijing-TianjinTangshan area
Hai-Luan basin
Yellow River basin
Huai basin

Due to
climate
change
Normal
Dry
0.16
0.69
0.19
0.44

1.43
9.48
12.12
3.54

Due to population
growth plus socioeconomic development
Normal
Dry

Combined
effects
Normal

Dry

3.61

1.37

5.04

25.20

47.76

25.09

57.24

13.51
3.60

24.34
15.92

13.32
2.84

36.46
19.46

1.53

Figure 7. Distribution of water shortage under scenario A2 by 2050 (top) and by 210013

improve.

Income
Water usage

Agriculture

Figure 8. The Positive Feedback from the previous case

Concentration of Carbon
Dioxide

Agriculture and
Food Problems

Family

Global Temperature

Water distribution imbalance

ENSO Event

Monsoon

Figure 9. This flow chart shows how global warming affects agriculture problems step by
step
For Figure 8, to solve this problems, there are several solutions. First, the administrative
should encourage farmers to learn more other knowledge so that they can not only relies on
crops to foster families, on the other hand the demand for underground water will decrease so
that the soil runoff can be alleviated. Second way is to build up reservoir, due to the shortage
of water, towns in North China should store water for irrigation and domestic usage.
On the larger scale shown as in Figure 9, one way is to advocate government restrict
carbon dioxide emission to alleviate the global warming, on the other hand try to develop
other renewable energy solutions to decrease the CO2 emission.
As we need to prevent this disaster, these suggestions can be served as a transitive step.
Once other efficient methods are available and developed, food supply in China could

become better.

Reference List
1. Kump, James E. Kasting, Robert G. Crane, The Earth System 3rd. edition, 2010, p.92
2. Kump, James E. Kasting, Robert G. Crane, The Earth System 3rd. edition, 2010, p.403
3. NOAA Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project,
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/proj_over/diagrams/gif/nina_normal_nino.gif
4. Scott Power, Francois Delage, Christine Chung, Greg Kociuba & Kevin Keay, Robust
twenty-first-century projections of ElNio and related precipitation variability, Nature,
Oct. 24 2013, issue 502 p.541
5. Scott Power, Francois Delage, Christine Chung, Greg Kociuba & Kevin Keay, Robust
twenty-first-century projections of ElNio and related precipitation variability, Nature,
Oct. 24 2013, issue 502 p.543
6. Kump, James E. Kasting, Robert G. Crane, The Earth System 3rd. edition, 2010, p.404
7. Sangheon Yi (2011), Holocene Vegetation Responses to East Asian Monsoonal Changes
in South Korea, Climate Change - Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects, 2011,
p.158
8. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter10/elnino_trades.html
9. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1998/anomnight.1.20.1998.gif
10. Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbic University,
Link:
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP/.CPC/.CAMS_OPI/.v0208/.ano
maly/.prcp/T/%28days%20since%201960-0101%29streamgridunitconvert/T/differential_mul/T/%28months%20since%201960-01-

01%29streamgridunitconvert//units/%28mm/month%29def/prcp_anomaly_max500_color
s2//long_name/%28Precipitation%20Anomaly%29def/DATA/-500/-450/-400/-350/-300/250/-200/-150/-100/-50/25/25/50/100/150/200/250/300/350/400/450/500/VALUES/prcp_anomaly_max500_color
s2+X+Y+fig-+colors+%7C+thin+grey+contours+black+thin+solid+coasts+countries+fig+//aprod/-500/500/plotrange/T/last/plotvalue/X/-20/340/plotrange/Y/65/75/plotrange+//plotborder+72+psdef//antialias+true+psdef//plotaxislength+700+psdef/
/XOVY+null+psdef//color_smoothing+null+psdef+.jpg?T=Jun+1998
11. Shourong Wang*, Zuqiang Zhang , Effects of climate change on water resources in
China, CLIMATE RESEARCH, Vol. 47, 2011, p.77
12. HUO Zhi-guo, LI Mao-song, WANG Li, XIAO Jing-jing, HUANG Da-peng, WANG
Chun-yan, Impacts of Precipitation Variations on Crop Diseases and Pests in China,
Scientia Agricultura Sinica, Vol 45, 2012, p.1935
13. Shourong Wang*, Zuqiang Zhang , Effects of climate change on water resources in
China, CLIMATE RESEARCH, Vol. 47, 2011, p.81