Professional Documents
Culture Documents
THE
NA
T U RE o r INFEBE NCE
1
Ps ych ological and L ogi cal Elem ents in Inference p age 1 ;
Obj e ctive and S ubj ective Ne cess i ty 4 ; Data of Presen
tation 5 ; S y s tem as Gro und of Inference 6 ; Th e Im
Cnar I
.
li i
di
d ho h
l
io
CRA P II
.
IND UC T IO N
A ND
D E DUC TIO N
16
Various Op inions
CHA P
Tu n ES SE N
III
TI AL S
or
INDU C TIO N
l o
24
of
d
d io
tion 25 ; Its
regard ed as an Inverse Process 27 Law and Rule 30 ;
Law in Terms of an Hyp oth etical Univers al 3 1 Induc
Th e Se ien
tion in th e Conduct of Human A ffairs 3 2
tic S p ir it 33
page
CRAP IV
.
Th e
Tr1 Es
>
or
IND UC
M ethod of Enumeration
on
ti
36
Incompl e te
IV E
INF E RE NCE
pag e 3 5 :
Enumerat
ion
34
Perfect Induc
37 ;
Pr ba
vi
CON ENT
M ethod
of Scientic A naly sis or Causal D eterm ination 40 ;
Th e Causal Postulate und erlyi ng A ll th e M e thod s 43
R elation of Mental Habit to Choice of M ethod 47 ;
G eneralization 48
b ility , 38 ; Th e
Method of Analogy
39 ; Th e
'
AP V CA U SA TIO N
60
L og ical S ignicance of th e Causal Conc pt page 50 ; Its
Ph eno menal S ig n ican ce Th e Cons ervat ion of E m
ergy 5 1
Its Philo sop hi c al S ignicance 53 Its L og ical
S ignicanc e 54 ; It Epistemelog ic ai G round 58 P op
ular and Sci entic Idea of Cause 58 ; Causal A nalysis
60 L i mitations of K nowl ed ge 6 2
CH
A U S AL A N ALY SIS N D D TE RM IN A T O N
64
S equence page 64 ; Concurrence 66 ; Co existence 66 ;
V ital Growth and D evelopment 68 ; Collocation 6 8 ;
D ifferent Modes of T ransfer of Energy 7 1 ; Quantita
tive D etermination 7 2 ; O b s ervat ion and Ex p eri m nt
73 ; Negative D etermination 7 8 ; Pseudo causal Co n
CR
AP
VI C
nection ,
AP
CH
82
V II
.
MI LL s INDU C T I VE
ME T HO D S THE M ETHO D
A G RE E M E N T
84
The F ive M ethods page 84 ; Th e M e thod of A greement
8 6 ; S y m b olic R epresentat ion 8 7 ; V ariation of In
stances 9 0 ; Th e M ethod of A gre em ent and O bserva
tion 9 1 ; R el ation t o S imp l e Enum eration
9 1 ; Se
qu ence an d Co exi stence 92 ; D e fects of thi s M ethod
9 3 ; Its Chief Function th at of S ugg estion 9 6 ; Illus
OF
trations, 9 7
CONTENT S
a ive
to Neg t
o ry o f C
Determination, 104 ;
R elation
ii
to the Th e
AP
CH
I"
TRE
JO IN
T ME THO D
OF
A G REEMEN T
D I FFE REN C E
A ND
117
R elation to M ethod of
page
Dieren ce,
S y m bolic Rep
117
118 ;
124
CH
AP X
.
THE
M E THO D O F CO N CO M I T AN T V A RI A TIO N S
130
Its C
AP
CH
M E T HO D
" L TRE
OF
R E S ID U E S
146
'
CR
AP
" II
.
VE R1FI C A T IO N
A ND
PR E D I C
T ON
156
Th e Ind u cto-
viii
CON EN
TS
17 4
AP X III HYPO THE S S
Hyp othesis as Preli minary t o Exp eri ment page 174 ; Hy
po th es is in p l ace of Exp eri m ent 176 ; Illustrations
Function of th e Imagi nat ion in Hy poth esi s 184 ;
17 7
A nalysis and Synth es is 186 R e quirem ents of a L egit
Postul ate and Hy p othes is 189 ;
imate Hy p oth es is 18 7
F ictions 196 ; S ugges tions through F ailure of Hy poth
ese s 19 7
Cons ili enc e of Inductions 198 ; Experimen
W h ewell and Mill 20 1
tum Cruc is 199
CR
CR
AP
" IV
A NALO G Y
204
CR
AP
"V P
.
RO BA BIL I TY
226
C mp
CR
AP
" VI
E M PI R I C AL
L AW S
252
C ON EN
TS
ix
FA LLA CIE S
262
Of Perception, page 26 3
h E IN D U C TIV E ME TRO DS
VA R I O U S S C IE N C E S
TRE
As
APPLIED
To
2 81
Nature
CR A P " I"
.
HI S TO RIC AL
S TCH
KE
OF
IND U C
TI O N
29 7
R oger Bacon
300 ; L eonardo da V inc i 3 0 1 ; Teles ius 3 02 ; Camp a
nella, 303 ; Caasalpinus C opernicus G ilbert K epler
,
Lo o I C A L
E" E
RC I S E S
313
PREFACE
IT
xi
R FACE
xii
P E
R FACE
xiii
P E
L ubbock ;
and
J G H
.
RIN CE T O N
NJ
.
March
2, 1896
INDUCTIVE LO GIC
CHAP TER I
TRE N A T U RE
OF
IN FE REN CE
'
'
TV
O GIC
IN UC I E L
THE N
AT URE OF
F R
IN E EN CE
TV
O GIC
INDUC I E L
THE N
AT URE
F R
O F IN E ENCE
TV
O GIC
IN UC I E L
THE N
AT URE OF
F R
IN E ENCE
e xpression in th e
L aw o f T otality, th at o u r
kno wle dg e is capable o f arran g ement in a self c o n
sist e nt an d h armoni ous sys t em an d wh ic h m o re o v e r
in it s c o nte nt an d fo rm faith fully represent s o bj ec
1
ti ve r e ality
W e nd th erefore th at in th e f o cus
of consci o usness at any o n e t im e, wh eth er in th e
S p h er e o f presen t ati o n o r in th e r e g ion o f re pres e nt a
t ive o r th e c o ncep t ual pr o ce sses wh at e ve r is g iv en
carries with it al ways cert ain i m plicat i o ns an d th e re
fo re cert ain necessary relat i o ns T h is is specially
e mp h asize d in Bo s an qu et s d e nit i o n of sys t em :
trine ,
2
pp
54 0
an d
140
TV
O G IC
IND UC I E L
NATURE
THE
O F INF ERENCE
Q uo te d
by Jev
o ns ,
P rinciples
f S cience, 2d ed
683
D UCTIVE
10
IN
O GIC
THE N
ATURE OF
F R
11
IN E ENCE
h in g es " O r
,
.
James , P s ych o lo g y , V o l II
.
pp
339 , 340
12
TV
O GIC
IN UC I E L
S ee
Green
Philosophi cal
Wo rks
Vo l II
.
pp
284 , 285
THE N
AT URE O F
IN
FERENCE
di rec t ly
13
it l
.
Green
P hi lo sop h ic al
Works
Vo l II
.
301
14
IN
DUCTIVE
O GIC
"
THE N
ATURE OF
F R
IN E ENCE
15
CHAPT ER II
IN DU C T I O N
AN D
DE D U CT IO N
Ess ay
on
16
DEDUCTION
INDUCTIO N AND
17
'
S ee Ueberw eg , S ystem
C
f Log ic
etc . ,
345 .
18
IN
DUCT IVE
O GIC
IN
D UCT ION
A ND
DEDUCT ION
19
e
as th o se th ey are mad t o imit at e
An oth er V iew o f th e relat i o n o f in duct ion to de
d uc ti on may be g ain e d by callin g att ent ion to th e
d ifference o f si g ni cance betw een th e t erm s a t ruth
A fac t carries with it onl y th e special
an d a fac t
an d in d iv i dual c h arac t er o f th e part icular o ccur
rence in wh ic h it is manifest e d A truth, h o w ever
is al w ays universal in it s very nat ur e, adm ittin g o f
uni versal applicat ion an d capabl e o f illus t rat ion
in an in d e n it e num ber of d ifferent fact s wh ich
e m bo dy it s e ssence In d e duct ion w e h ave g iv e n
some t ruth o f un iversal nat ure th at 1e
,
20
IN
DUCTIVE
O GIC
TO
DEDUCT ION
IN UC I N AND
21
'
22
IN
D UCT IVE
O GIC
dl ey
Bra
P rinciples
Lo tz e , Log i c,
119
.
f Log ic
2 88
S ee
a so
332
TO
IN UC I N AN D
DEDUCTIO N
23
CHAPT ER III
THE ESS E N T I A L S
OF
IN D U CT I O N
'
'
'
24
S OF
TO
25
IN UC I N
TV
26
O GIC
IND UC I E L
1
2
3
Lo t ze , Log ic ,
102
g wart , Lo g ic ( Eng t rans at o n ) , Vo l II
Bo sanq ue t , Th e E s sentials of Lo g ic , p 166
.
Si
l i
289
N TIALS
THE E SS E
OF
27
I ND U C TIO N
B o s anquet Log ic Vo l II p 82
2 Jev o ns Prin c i les o S cie n ce
f
p
p
124
INDU C TIVE
28
LO GI C
o ne
Given
All A is B,
A ll B
an d
is 0 ,
But in th e in direc t
1
2
Venn
c a l L og i c
E mp iri
p 361
.
THE ESS EN
T IALS
or
29
INDU C TIO N
"
Jv
e
o ns ,
E mpiri
c a l L og i c
p 219
.
p 359
3
o s an uet , Lag ic , V o l II p 17 5
4
II p 17 5 ; Sig wart, Vo l
o s an ue t, V o l
e nn , 3 6 1 ;
Lo tze , Ou tlines of Log i , p 93
p 203 , 289
2
II
I NDU C TIVE
30
O GIC
W h ewell , P h ilosop h y of
d c
THE E
SS ENT IALS
IND U C TIO N
OF
31
one
If
is , B
is
Lo tze , Log i
p 3 35
.
w h at
INDUCT IVE
32
O G IC
Given
p 42
.
THE ESS EN
TI AL S
OF
INDU CT ION
33
CH A P T ER
T Y PE S
OF
IV
I N D U CT IV E I N FE REN C E
34
TYPES O F
35
INDU CT IVE
36
O GI C
'
Q u o ted by Ueb e rw eg Lo g ic , p
,
482
TYPES
OF
I ND U CT IVE IN FERENCE
37
in
B os an quet
Lo g i
Vo l II p 54
.
I NDU C TIVE
38
O GIC
TYPES
OF
39
Jv
e
o ns ,
pp 146 , 147
.
I NDU C T IVE
40
O GI C
1
2
Jv
e
o ns ,
B o sanquet
p 527
Lo g i , p 155
.
TYPES
OF
41
42
INDUCTIVE
O GI C
B o s anq uet
L og i
V o l II p 118
.
TYPES
OF
43
of
pp 483 f
.
INDU C TIVE
44
OGIC
A nalo gy
TYPE S
U TV
45
I NFERENC E
O F IND C I E
appearance of an exception
Ho w d o w e kno w
says G reen th at th e ins t ances , with th e examina
tion o f wh ich w e are al w ays dispensin g on th e
s t ren gth of th e rule ( th at i s ou r g eneralization) ,
mi ght n o t be jus t wh at w oul d invali d at e i t if th ey
w ere ex amine d ? 1 We may arrive at th e conclu
r
'
Green Ph il Works
,
Vo l II p 282
.
INDU C T IVE
46
O GI C
In d u c tio quae
th is meth o d h as become clas sic
pro c e d it per e nu meratio n em simplicem , res pu erilis
e st e t precario co n c lu d it et peric ul o expo n itu r ab
in stan tia cont radi c t oria et pl erum qu e secun dum
pau c io ra quam par e s t et ex iis t antu mmo d o quae
1
r
n
u
n
i
a
t
pres t o sun t p o
c
T h e vali dity of this meth o d o f proce dure d epen ds
larg ely upon th e probabili ty o f o u r meetin g an d
noticin g excep tions w ere th ey to occur A s L ot ze
put s i t : A man wh o never observes a place o f
public resort but onc e in every seven days an d th at
o n a S un d ay aft ernoon
h as no ri ght to suppose
because it is cro wd e d th en th at i t is as cro wde d
2
on a w eek d ay
He is h ere in no posit ion to not e
th e exceptions even sh oul d th ey occur
A nalo gy , unl ess conrme d by experiment o r upon
th e g roun d of resemblance es t ablish e d by a veri abl e
hypoth esis h as no claim t o be consi d ere d as a scien
t ic me th o d
T h ere may be false analo gies d epen d
in g upon surface resemblances A chil d mi ght
conclu d e th at o il woul d put out re because i t
so closely resembles w at er wh ich h e kno w s can ex
tin gu ish th e ames
T h e difference betw een essen
tial an d acci d ent al ag reement betw een ph enomena
,
'
N ov um O rg anon , i 105
.
Lo tze , Log i
p 343
.
TYPES
OF
47
I NDU C T IVE
48
O GIC
,
.
TYP ES
OF
49
II
pp 310 , 3 11
.
CH AP T ER
CAU S ATI O N
Green Ph il Works V o l II p
2 C liffo rd L ec tu res an d E ss a s
y
1
50
284
V o l I p 149
.
CA
US AT IO N
51
Fo r n othing is th at
e rs
fro m Law
N UC TI VE
52
I D
LO
GIC
f
c h apt er on Conservation o Ener gy by P rofessor
Tai t
I g ive i t somewh at in full : I allo w an
elect ric current to pass throu gh a g alvanic batt ery
and th ere is fo r th e m oment a cer t ain quant ity of
zinc consume d or as w e may put i t a cert ain quan
tity of potential ener gy in th e batt ery h as been
convert e d in t o th e kinet ic ener gy of a current O f
elec t ricity T ha t current of elect ricity passes roun d
some yar d s of copper wire, coile d roun d a bar o f
iron or a number o f n e iron wires wh ich are s t an d
in g vertically insi d e this apparatus T h e moment
th e current passes th ese iron w ires are convert e d
into magnet s, but in consequence of th e conserv a
tion of energy while th is is g oing on th ey w eaken
th e current T h e current of elec trici ty becomes
w eaker in th e ac t of m akin g th e ma gnet but th e
moment th e mag net S prin g s into exis t ence i t a g ain
is w eakene d because from th e necessi t ies o f its
posit ion its m ere comin g in t o exis t ence necessit at es
th e passa g e of a new current of elec t ricit y in an
o th er coil Of w ire which surroun d s this ext ernally
an d nally this last current w e can u se t o pro d uce
of
CA U S ATION
53
1
2
Tait
Recen t A dv an c es in
Hume , E ssay
on
dea
Ph ysi ca l S c ien ce
pp 7 6 , 7 7
INDU CTIVE
54
O GI C
C AUSA T IO N
55
,
.
IN DU CT IVE
56
mstances
OGIC
of
and th e
Will
pp 87 , 88
.
CA US AT ION
57
,
.
Venn
E mp iri
cal Lo g ic
p 130
.
S ig wart, Log i
V o l II p 30 3
.
INDUCT IVE
58
OGI C
plish m e nt
pp 2 81, 282
.
C AUS AT IO N
59
I NDU C TIVE
60
O GIC
C AUS AT IO N
d u c in g B
61
INDUCT IVE
62
O GI C
A n d yet,
Glad sto ne
Mi ch ael F arad ay
p 180
.
63
CA US ATIO N
less prominence as
efcient element o f th e
cause, accor din g as th e point o f vie w is s hift e d
If, in th e search for th e cause o f ph enomena th e
sum t o t al o f an t ece d en t s w ere al w ays g iven exh au s
tiv ely th e explanat ion mi ght become so loa d e d
d o wn w ith d e t ails as t o bur d en th e min d an d con
fuse, rath er th an clear, th e un d erst andi n g
.
CHA P TER
THE
ME THO D
OF
VI
CAU S AL AN ALY S I S
M I N A TI
DETER
A ND
ON
64
C A US AL
T RMIN AT IO N
AN ALY SIS
65
AND DE E
hibited in
'
I NDU C TIVE
66
OGIC
is
CA U S AL
N ALY S IS
T IO N
67
ie
nat ural kin d s
or g anisms present in g an
unique an d c h aract eris tic appearance, d ierenti
at e d th ereby from all oth ers
T h ere are also
cer tain correlations of gro wth wh ic h present a
cons t an t relation be tw een cert ain att ribut es, as
th e fac t h o w ever w e may explain i t, th at cat s
w i th bl u e eyes are invariably deaf
Th ere are,
moreover, illus t rations O f th e same in an inor g anic
sp h ere, as th e law wh ich connect s th e at omic
w ei ght of subs t ances an d th eir specic h eat by
an inverse proportion ; o r th at o th er law wh ich
O bt ains be tw een th e speci c g ravity of subst ances
in th e g aseous s t at e, an d th eir atomic w ei ght s
th ey bein g eith er equal o r th e one a mul tiple of
th e o th er In many cases , th e bare fact o f co
exis t ence mus t be accep t e d with out bein g able t o
explain th e causal g roun d of i t T h e several ele
men t s present a cons t ant association an d th at is
all th at can be sai d about i t
In oth er cases ,
h o w ever, a cause may be foun d as re g ar d s for
inst an ce, th e corr
elation of warm bloo d e d animals
al w ays possessin g lun g s Th e connec tion betw een
respiration an d th e g enerat ion o f h eat is foun d t o
d epen d upon ch emical ac tion as its causal basis
(2 ) A relat ion of st atics rath er th an dynamics , as ,
for in s t ance, a pillar supportin g a roof o r arch , is
sai d t o be th e cause in th e sense of th e sus t ainin g
caus e o f th e supers t ructure S o also th e coh esive
force wh ic h h ol d s t o g eth er th e par ticles of a st one
In suc h cases th e ener gy inh erent in th e cause is of
th e nature of a s t ress an d s t rain
-
INDUCT IV E
68
O G IC
U n d er
S ig wart , Log i
V o l II pp 322 , 3 30 , 331
.
C A US AL A N ALY SIS
T RMINA T ION
69
AND DE E
Q u o te d by
Jevons P
,
rin
p 7 40
.
INDUCT IVE
70
O GIC
AND DE ER MI NA
T ION
71
I NDU CTIVE
72
LO
G IC
n o n faci t saltum
We n o lon g er look fo r cat as
t roph ic resul t s in nature but re gar d causation
as a con t inuous t ransfer of po t ent ial ener g y in t o
kinetic or ac tual ener gy
We come now t o th e consi d erat ion o f th e meth o d
by wh ic h th e causal analysis is me diat e d
This
is effec t e d th rou gh O bservat ion an d experimen t
O bservation is somethin g more th an mere lookin g at
as,
fo r
enkin ,
c c
E le tri ity
an d
Mag netism ,
p 83
.
C AU S AL AN ALYS IS
73
mark wh en th ey miss
We mus t s t rive a g ains t a
natural t en d ency to see thin g s as w e w oul d h ave
th em an d not as th ey s t rictly are
We mus t also carefully dis tin guish bet ween oh
serve d fact s and inferences which w e inst inctively
d raw from th ese fac t s O bservation is preliminary
,
INDU CTIVE
74
O GI C
Gl ad stone
pp 165 , 166
.
CA US AL AN ALYSIS
T RMIN AT IO N
75
A ND DE E
Q uote d by
f S c ienc e
pp 409 411
.
I NDU C TIVE
76
O GI C
'
1
2
Tynd all
G o re
d
c
0 u S o u n , pp 7 3 , 74
Th e A rt of S ien ti D is
,
cov ery
p 3 16
.
CAU S AL ANALYS I S
N ATIO N
AND DE ERMI
77
Letters
Lif e
pp 402 ff
.
an d
f Charles D arwin
Vo l I p 122
.
I NDU CT IVE
78
O GIC
ANALY SIS
CA US AL
T RMINA T ION
A ND DE E
79
INDUCT IVE
80
O GIC
Tynd all
0 n S ou n
p 17 2
.
C AU SAL
N ALYS IS
AND DETERMI
N AT IO N
81
tion ,
a variat ion in cause accomp anie d by a vari
ation in effect as also a maximum an d minimum
as re g ar d s th e int ensit y of th e soun d
E xperimen t
procee d s upon th e supposi tion o f th e measurable
ness Of p h enomena an d seeks numerically expres
sible resul t s in this re gar d For ins t ance, by
different experiment s Tyn dall prove d th at th e
len gth of th e column o f air wh ich resoun d s t o th e
fork in a maxim u m d e gree of int ensity is equal t o
o n e fourth o f th e len gth of th e w ave pro d uce d by
l
th e fork
T h e ne g at ive d e t ermi nat ion o f a suspect e d con
n ectio n o f cau se an d effec t mus t be precise in or d er
t o es t ablis h th e causal relat ion w ith th at d e g ree Of
accuracy whic h is d eman d e d in a t ruly lo gical an d
scientic me th o d U pon this point Bosanquet h as
a very su gges tive passag e : T h e essence o f signi
cant ne g ation consis t s in correctin g an d conrmin g
o u r ju dg ment o f th e nat ure o f a posi t ive ph en o m e
non by s h o win g th at j ust when it s cond i tion ceases
j us t then some thin g else be gins T h e Ju st no t is
th e import ant point an d this is only gi v en by a
po si tive ne g at ion within a d en it e sys t em Y o u
want t o explain o r d ene th e case in wh ich A be
comes B Y o u w ant Observation of no t B, so th at
Wh at you mus t d o is t o
you are los t in c h aos
n d th e point w i th in A wh ere A I wh ic h is B passes
int o A 2 whic h is 0 and th at wi ll give yo u th e j u s t
n o t
wh
ic
h
is
th
e
valuable
ne
g
a
t
ive
ins
t
ance
B
F or exam ple in P rofessor Tyn dall s experiment, th e
,
T yn d all 0 n S ou n d p 174
2 B o san q u et The E ssen tials o Lo ic
f
g
p 13 4
.
INDU C TIVE
82
OGIC
CA US A L
A NA LY SIS
T RMIN AT I O N
83
AN D DE E
Sir
John Lubb
o ck ,
CH AP T ER
V II
M ILL S I N DU CT I VE METH O D S
A G R EE M E N T
THE
ME TH O D
T HE RE
OF
84
THE
I NDU C T I VE
METH ODS
85
I NDU CTIVE
86
M etho d
O GI C
A greement
T h e more precise
s t at ement o f this meth o d is g iven in th e rs t canon
of Mill , wh ic h is subs tantially as follo w s
If tw o or more inst ances of th e p h enomenon
un d er inves ti g ation h ave only o n e circums t ance in
common th e circums t ance in which alone all th e
ins t ances ag ree is th e probable cause (or effect) O f
th e given ph enomenon, or sus tains some causal
relation t o i t
T h e above is base d upon th e causal axiom th at
th e cons t ant element s wh ich emer g e in any given
series o f si m ilar p h enomena are t o be consi d ere d as
connect e d in some m anner wi th th e caus e of th e
ph enomena ; but th at th e variable element s are no t
connect e d wi th th e ph enomena in any causal man
ner wh at soever
Th e meth o d of a g reemen t is illust rat e d in th e in
v e stig ation o f th e very common p h enomenon o f th e
t ransformation of subs t ances from th e soli d t o th e
liqui d s t at e Wh at is th e on e circumst ance wh ic h
is al ways present wh en w e consi d er th e mel tin g of
suc h wi d ely different subs tances as butt er ice, lead
iron, etc ? In all ins tances t o wh at soever ext ent
th ey may be mul tiplie d of th e c h an g e from soli d t o
liquid s t at es h eat h as been observe d t o be present,
an d is th ereby indicat e d as th e likely cause o f th e
ph enomenon in ques tion
T h e meth o d may be
represent e d th rou gh th e u se of symbols which ao
cor din g to Mill are th e capi t al lett ers to d eno t e
ant eced ent s an d th e smaller lett ers to d enot e cor
respon din g consequen t s L et th e follo win g be a
number of different ins t ances w i th th e ant ece d ent s
The
TH OD
THE ME
OF
A GREEMENT
87
a bc
A DE
ad e
A MN
amn
etc
et c
'
Venn
E mp iri
cal Log ic
p 4 11
.
INDU CT I VE
to
88
O GIC
th e meth o d of a g ree
+ 0
8
'
"
C
+
'
by S , S , S et c but 0 remains cons t ant in th e
antece dent s ; also th e correspon din g settin g in th e
co nsequen t s c h an g es, as in dicat e d by s s '
etc
but e remains cons t ant th rou gh out S uc h a not a
tion d oes no t att emp t t o represent jus t wh ic h part s
of S cause corresponding part s of 3 nor by wh at
"
element s precisely S differs from S an d S e t c
I t d oes represent h o w ever, th e difference be tw een
th e variable an d cons t ant element s o f th e t able of
ins tances which are arran g e d for comparison, an d
this is th e key t o disclose th e causal relat ion
A s an example O f th is meth o d let u s t ake th e
ph ysical la w th at di fferen t bo dies t end at th e same
time t o absorb an d to emit th e same w aves of li ght
I t is kno wn th at every subs t ance in burning gives
it s o wn lines in th e spec t rum analysis so dium for
ins t ance, pro ducin g a very bri ght line in th e yello w
portion of th e spect rum in a d enit e locali ty ( L ine
If n o w ins t ea d of burnin g
D o f F raun h ofer)
so dium w e int erpose th e vapor o f so dium in th e
path o f th e ray wh ic h s h oul d give a cont inuous
S pect rum th e ph e nomenon is comple t ely reverse d ;
at th e exac t point wh ere th ere wa
s a bri ght line in
th e spec t r um a d ark li n e n o w appears Th us th e
vapor O f so dium , actin g as a screen, absorbs th e
,
THE
METH OD O F
A GREEMENT
89
Vapor
of
'
"
C
0
et c
The
io dine
s t rontium
et c
e
'
T h erefore w e h ave
S
111
+ 0
+ 0
et c
P henomena
pp 94 , 95
.
I NDU C T IVE
90
LO GI C
line
of
THE
AGREEMEN T
METHOD O F
INDU C T IVE
92
OGI C
THE
METH OD O F
A GREEMENT
93
'
,
,
'
INDUCT IVE
94
O GIC
S ig wart, Log i
V o l II p 341
.
THE
METH O D OF
A GREEMENT
95
INDU C T IV E LO G IC
96
THE
ME TH OD O F
A GREEMENT
97
INDUCT IVE
98
O GI C
Q uo ted by
Jv
e
o ns ,
p 419
.
THE
METH OD O F
A GR EEMENT
99
INDU CT I VE
100
LO
GIC
gi ves
CHAP T ER
METH O D
THE
OF
VIII
DIFFE REN CE
'
101
INDU CTIVE
102
O GIC
THE MET O D
OF
103
DI FFERENCE
'
T h en, w ithdrawin g
C,
w e h ave th e absence
Tynd all
T h e inference th en
1
of e
Use
and
is
Limit
th at
is th e cause of
in S ien
ce
p 33
.
104
INDU CT I E LO G IC
METHO D
TH E
OF
DI FF ERENCE
105
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
106
Th is pro c ess
a strik ing
h as
manner by
een
d and c iti i d at l
Emp iric al L g ic pp 40 1 ff
Venn
c se
e ng th
in
THE ME
TH O D
10 7
Vo l
p 420
.
IN DUCTIVE LOG IC
108
109
Lo tze , Log i
p 322
.
INDU CTI VE
110
O GIC
THO D
THE ME
trate d
IFFEREN CE
111
OF D
'
Venn
'
INDUCT IVE
112
O GI C
THE
METH O D O F DI FF ERENCE
113
d ieren ce :
I t mus t be n o w
acco un t of his visi t t o F ara d ay :
ei ght een years a g o wh en I pai d him a visi t an d
brou ght some S lips o f exible an d to ugh Mun tz s
yello w met al t o S h o w h im th e ins t an t aneous
ch an g e t o com plet e brittleness w ith ri gi dity pro
d uced by d ippin g int o perni t rat e of mercury so
He g o t th e solution an d I sh o w e d h im
lu tio n
th e fact s ; h e obviously di d n o t d oub t w h at h e
s aw me do before an d close t o h im ; but a sor t
ins tinc t seeme d to require h e
o f experiment al
s h oul d try i t himself S o h e t ook o n e of th e
slips bent i t for war d an d back w ar d d ippe d i t
an d broke i t up in t o s h ort bi t s betw een his o wn
He h a d not before S poken
T h en h e
n g ers
sai d Ye s i t is pliable an d i t d o es becom e in
2
Here th e experiment with and
n
l
sta t y bri tt le
w ith out th e si gnicant ant ece d ent an d consequent
.
1
2
Glad sto ne
175
I NDU C TIVE
114
O IC
L G
Je
v o ns ,
p 4 19
.
THE ME
TH OD O F
DI FF EREN C E
115
bb ck
Lu
mals , p
2
45
o
0 n S enses , etc
bb ck
Lu
p 75
.
and
ce of Ani
In tellig en
INDU CT IVE
116
O G IC
Je
v o ns ,
p 43 3
.
CH AP T ER I"
THE J O IN T
M E TH O D
OF
FE
IT
A G RE EM E N T
AND
DIF
RE N CE
117
118
IN DU CTIVE
O GIC
I Table
.
S
S
'
of
+ 0
+ C
+ 0
m
S
+ 0
et c
ME TH OD
II
O F A GREEMENT
IFFERENCE
A ND D
119
St
S.
8
e tc
1it
etc
S + 0,
~
m
s + C, s + O, s + 0 ,
'
etc ,
.
INDUCT IVE
120
O GIC
'
S + O
S'
e
3
'
METHO D
O F A GREEMENT
A ND D
IFFERENCE
121
INDU C TIVE
122
LO
GI C
So
,
.
S et
of positive in s t ances
+ C+ m
+ C+ w
'
il l
+ C +
1
+ 6 +
et c
HI
METHO D O F A GREEMEN T
II
S et
AND D FFERE
NCE
S,
a:
Sn
SM
etc
123
,
11
etc
INDU CT IVE
124
O GIC
METHOD
125
12 6
I NDU C T IVE
LO
GI C
bb o ck ou
pp 175 ff
Lu
mals ,
METHOD O F
GREEMENT
AND
DIFFERENCE
12 7
yc atc h ers,
INDU CTIVE
128
O GIC
Darwin , Voyag e of
pp
172 f
METH OD O F
A GREEMENT
AND
DIFFERENCE
129
CH AP T ER "
THE
ME T HO D
OF
CO N CO M I T AN T VA RI A T I O N S
130
e tc
of
13 1
th is meth o d
e ;t
etc
is
de
T h en 0 is th e cause o f e
I h ave use d d 0 , an d d c to denot e th e increment s
o r d ecremen t s of th e cause an d effec t respec t ively
T h is me tho d is use d g enerally wh en th e meth o d o f
d i eren ce is impo s s ible, o w in g to th e fac t th at th e
suppose d causal element canno t be made t o vanish
wh olly In all suc h cases a variat ion o f th e ele
ment is resor t e d t o an d th e correspon d in g re s ul t
observe d Heat is relat ive an d not absolut e as also
th e h ei ght of mercury in th e t ube T h e relation
is d et ermined, th erefore by variations, g reat er an d
le ss Th is me th o d is al s o use d to s upplement th e
re s ul ts o f o th er me th o d s by wh ic h a causal relation
h as been d et erm ined but not in exac t qu antit ative
t erms It may be kno wn th at a c ert ain ph en om e
non C is al way s th e cau s e o f a cert ain e ffe c t e an d
th e meth o d o f c oncomit ant variat ions w ill th en be
o f use in d et erminin g precisely h Ow m uc h o f a vari
ation in 0 w ill c au se a speci e d variat ion in e A
la w n ds scien ti c expression only wh en st at e d in
t erms o f exact quantit at ive relat ion betw een varia
t ion s in ant ece dent an d consequent We may ex
pres s th e la w o f uni versal a tt rac t ion in a v a gue way
th at bo dies al w ays attrac t each oth er and th e great er
att ract ion wh en th e bo d ies are nearer to g eth er, an d
th e lar g er th ey are But th is s t at ement nee d s to
.
13 2
INDU CTIVE
O GIC
0 i d0
+e :1 de
METHOD OF
C O NCO
MITANT VARIATIONS
133
119
mso n
.
an d
Tait, Elements
Vol
13 4
IN
DUCTIVE
O GIC
METHOD
O F C ONCO
135
y d
61
13 6
INDU CTIVE
LO G IC
MET HOD
OF
13 7
pp
283 , 284
138
IN
DUCTIVE
OGIC
'
'
1
2
Chapter XXX
pp
284 , 285
METHOD OF
MITANT
CO NCO
VARIAT IONS
13 9
pp
87 f
I NDU CTIVE
140
OGIC
T h ere s eems
o u sl y explaine d by th is c ircu m s t an c e
t o be h ere a combination of th e me th o d of a g ree
ment w ith th at of conc omitant variations
An d
s uc h a c ombinat ion may be employe d t o a d van t a g e
in ca s e s wh ere th e ph enomena un d er inves t i g ation
S h o w for c e s un d er vary in g d e g rees o f int ensi ty ;
th e cau s al relation is more apparent an d th e po s
s ibil ity of for t ui t ou s co inci d enc e is lar g ely c limi
n ated if a number of ins t ance s can be collec t e d
in wh ic h th e force s m anifes t th emselves in vary
in g d e g ree s
Accumulation of ins t ances , S h o win g
conc omit ant variat ions in th e forces observed c o r
responds t o th e actual variat ions wh ich in an e xperi
ment are effec t e d by th e inves t igat or h im s elf I n
suc h ob s erve d inst ances h o w ever w e cannot al ways
h ave before us th e variat ions expresse d continuously
Th ere are evi dent g aps th at mus t be int erpolat e d
ment ally I n th e experiment, h o we v er o f wh at ever
nat ure, th e d e grees of int ensity can be exh ibit e d
c on t inuously
one d e g ree mer gin g int o anoth er
th rou gh inapprec iable increment s T h ere is th us
.
METHOD
OF
14 1
142
Darwin, Vo y ag e of
N aturalis t, V o l I
.
pp
76 f
143
'
144
IN DU CTI VE
O GIC
f S cience p 230
P o litic al E co nomy p 325
Jevo ns
Gid e ,
MET HOD O F
C NC
145
o ur
CHAP T ER " I
TH E
ME T H O D
OF
RE S I D UE S
Given S
I f it
is
'
+e
3:
146
THE
METHOD
OF RESIDUE S
147
INDU C IV E LO G IC
14 8
METHOD
THE
OF
RES IDUES
149
res id u al
p hen o m ena
t ion o f w at er by g alvani sm
He foun d th at
be s i d es th e tw o compon ent s of w at er oxygen an d
h y dro g en an aci d an d alkali w ere d evelope d at th e
tw o opposit e poles of th e mach ine A s th e th eory
o f th e an alysis of w a t er d id no t g ive reason t o ex
peet th ese pro duct s th ey w ere a res id u al p heno me
The
n o n t h e cau s e of wh ic h w as s t il l to be foun d
ins ight o f D avy conj ec ture d th at th ere mi ght be
s ome h i dd en cau se o f th is por t ion o f th e effec t ; th e
glas s containin g th e w at er mi ght s uffer part ial
d ecomposit ion , or some forei gn matt er mi ght be
min gle d wi th th e w at er an d th e aci d and alkali be
dis en ga g e d from it so th at th e w at er woul d h ave
A ssumin g th is , h e
n o s h are in th eir pro d uc t ion
INDU CTIVE
150
O GIC
THE
METHOD OF RESIDUES
151
152
IND
UCTIVE
OGIC
,
.
pp
homso n and
113 f
Tait , E lemen ts
Jevo ns
P ri nciples
f S cien ce , p
57 0
I bid
57 2
THE
METHOD O F R ES ID UES
153
iven
by
T
h
omson
an
d
Tai
t
With a very goo d
:
g
ach romatic t elescope a s t ar appears to h ave a sens i
ble disc But as it is O bserve d th at th e d iscs of all
s t ars appear t o be of equal an gular diamet er w e of
course s us pec t some common error L im it in g th e
aperture o f th e obj ec t g las s increases th e appear
ance in quest ion, wh ich, on full inves t ig ation, is
'
1
54
IN
DUCT IVE
O GIC
homson and
114
2
125
Tait , E lements
Darwin, Lif e
a nd
Le tters
f Ch arles Darwin , V o l I
THE
155
AND
PRE DI CT I O N
We h ave seen
Metho d
th at th e in duc t ive meth o d s are efcient in reveal in g
th e c ause of a given ph enomenon und er inve s ti g a
tion ; an d yet th ey d o not w arrant u s in g eneral
izin g th e s pecial ins t ance so as t o formulat e a
universal law
T h ere is al w ays th e pos s ibil ity
th at wh ile th e special case wh ic h w e experiment
upon may g ive us in dicat ion s of an exis t in g causal
relat ion still a wid er experienc e mi ght disprove, o r
else mo dify mat erially our c onc lusions T h e w ell
reco g nize d fac t of th e plurality of cau s e s an d th e
int ermixture o f effec t furth er embarras s e s us in
th e att empt t o ri s e t o a la w h avin g un ivers al sig
nic an ce an d vali di ty
T h e resul t s o f th e ind uc
tive meth o d s , th erefore nee d t o be supplemen t e d
by s ome corroborative obs ervations or experiment s
th at will conclu sively verify th e re s ul t s as obt aine d
This supplement ary meth o d is o ne wh ic h combines
d e d uc tion with in duction
Mr Mill c all s it th e
D e d uctive Meth o d
It is, h o w ever more ad e
qu ately d e s i gnat e d by th e name th e In d u c to d e
It con si st s of th ree s t ages
d u ctiv e Me th o d
1 O bt ainin g, by th e in d uct ive me th o d s alread y
The Ind ucto-d ed u ctiv e
156
F ATI ON
VERI IC
157
AND PREDIC IO N
158
INDU CTIVE
O GIC
VERIFICAT ION
th e rare bo dy
D TO
159
AND PRE IC I N
Tait ,
Recent Ad vances
in P h ysical S cience,
pp
65 , 66
160
13 , 17
3d
ed
V o l II
.
182
R D TO
16 1
AND P E IC I N
f S cien ce,
pp
291, 292
162
IN
DUCTIVE
OGIC
an d at oll s
It w ill th us be s een th at D arw in s d e duc t ion w as
ba s e d u pon previous in duction s in oth er S ph eres ,
th e result of h is o wn observation ; h e also t ells us
in th e same connection, th at h e h ad in th e prep a
rat ion o f his w ork on Coral Reefs, spent tw enty
month s of h ar d labor, readin g every w ork on th e
.
Lif e
and
Letters
f Ch arles Darwin ,
1887 , Vo l I
.
58
VERIFICATION
R DICT ION
16 3
AND P E
,
,
ix
Prefato ry n o te by Dr
W illiams
U CTIVE
164
IND
O GIC
Cliffo rd
Lec ture s
a nd
E s s ays , V o l I
.
128
VERIF ICATION
16 5
c
act s as a h ain an d is pulle d
N o w, say s Pro fes
so r Cli ffor d
suppose th at any g oo d, practical en g i
neer makes a bri dg e or a roof upon some approve d
patt ern wh ic h h as been ma d e before He d esi gn s
th e s ize an d s h ape o f it t o suit th e openin g wh ich
h as t o be spann e d ; select s his mat erial accor din g
t o th e locality assi g ns th e s t ren gth wh ic h mu s t be
g iven t o th e several part s of th e s t ructure accor d
in g t o th e loa d wh i c h i t w ill h ave t o bear T h ere
is a great d eal of th ou ght in th e making o f th is
d esi gn wh ose success is pre dict e d by th e appli c a
tion of previous experience ; it requires t ech nical
skill o f a ve ry h igh or d er, but it is no t s cienti c
th ou ght O n th e o th er h an d Mr Fleemin g J enkin
d es igns a roof c onsis tin g of two arch es brace d t o
g eth er ins t ea d of an arch an d a ch ain brace d
t o g e th er ; an d al th ou gh th is form is quit e d ifferent
from any kno wn s t ructure , yet before i t is built h e
assi g ns with accuracy th e amoun t o f mat erial th at
must be put int o every part o f th e s tr uct ure in
O rd er t o bear th e require d load, an d this pre dict ion
may be t rus t e d w ith perfect security Wh at is th e
nat ural comment on th is
Wh y th at Mr Fleeming
1
J enkin is a scientific en gineer
1 Cliffo rd Lec tures and E ssa s V o l I pp 127 128
y
,
16 6
IN
DUCTIVE
O GIC
Cliffo rd
Lec tu res
and
E ss ays , Vo l I
.
pp
128 , 129
V ERIFICATION
th at
R D ICT ION
16 7
AND P E
f S cience , p 338
The Art of S cientic Discov ery , p 594
Go re
16 8
OGIC
IN UC IV E L
pp
9 9 , 100
VERIFICAT ION
R D T O
169
AND P E IC I N
Gano t
P h ysics ,
pp
7 97 7 9 8
17 0
IN
DUCTIVE
OGIC
S cien ce,
on
VERIF ICATION
R D TO
17 1
A N D P E IC I N
17 2
I NDU CTIVE
O GIC
1
2
348
S ee Sig w art , Log ic , V o l II
Cli ord , Lec tures and E ssays , Vo l I
.
pp
131, 132
VERIFICATIO N
D TO
17 3
AND PRE IC I N
CH AP T ER " III
HY P O T HE S I S
"
17 4
HY PO THE SIS
17 5
17 6
IN
DUCT IV E
O GIC
Life
an d
Letters
f Ch arles Darwin
Vo l I
.
126
HYPO THE S I S
17 7
1
2
G o re
pp
T he A rt
151 ff
495
17 8
IN
DUCT IVE
O GIC
17 9
HYPO THES I S
do
illions
yea
f
r
s
sOl ar rad iation at th e pre s ent
o
m
ble of sh ow in g
n d it is cap a
rate, perh aps more ; a
us h o w it is th at th e sun, for th ousand s o f years
toge ther, can par t wi th ener gy at th e enormous
,
'
'
'
'
180
TV
OGIC
IN UC I E L
ma ss es
S uc h a h ypoth esis it w ill be s een embraces all
th e fact s observe d in o n e self c onsis t ent sy s t em
T h e o th er hypo th eses are ina dequat e t o ac c ount
satisfac torily for th e ph enomena
T h e vali dity
o f th is hypo th esi s l ies in its be in g bo th a d equat e
an d con g ruent as w ell ; experim ent or corroborat ive
observat ion bein g o ut o f th e ques t ion, w e are, as
HYPOTHESIS
of
18 1
th e
182
INDU CTIV E
OGIC
"
'
'
'
'
'
"
HY POTHES I S
183
'
Darwin , Vo yag e of
N aturalist, V o l I
.
223
184
23
185
YPOTHESiS
U TV
186
IND C I E
LO GIC
'
a nd
Limit
187
HY PO THE S I S
co urse O pen t o th em
T h e difference betw een a scient ic hypbth esis
an d a popul ar explanat ion concerning th e s ame
p h enomena may be foun d In D ar win s account o f
a s t ran g e belief whi c h i s g en eral amon gs t th e
inh abit ant s o f th e Maldiv a at olls n amely th at
corals h ave root s an d th erefore th at if merely
broken do wn to th e surface, th ey g ro w up again ;
,
'
'
Venn
E mp iric al Log ic ,
Chapter " VI
188
iNDUCTIv E Lo cic
'
'
89
HYPOTHESIS
th ink able
and
189
Lo tze , Log ic ,
35 3
190
Lo tze , Log ic ,
pp
349 , 350
19 1
HYPOTHE S I S
"
19 2
IN
DUCT IVE
O GIC
193
HYPO THES I S
19 4
IN
DU CT IVE
O GIC
'
'
hat
It is interesting to note t
b ve
s inc e
Mr W allace w ro te th e
.
l o ng "
2
Wallac e
h p b
pp
2 7 127 5
es
h es
HYPOTHES I S
195
19 6
IN DU CTIVE
O G IC
Lu
bb ock
pp
9 , 10
19 7
HYPO THES I S
'
Tait ,
Recent A d v ances
in P h ysic al
Science
69
19 8
INDU CTIVE
OGI C
I n ductions
A n hypo th esis receives a conrmatory
s t rength ening o f its vali dit y wh en it enable s u s t o
explain an d d et ermine ca s e s n o t only o f th e s ame
kin d as th e p h enomena out o f wh ich th e hypo th e
sis it self h as d evelope d, bu t case s which arise in
a sp h ere entirely different from th at wh ich g ave
mat erial ori g inally for th e formation o f th e hy
An hypoth esis th at can thus be carrie d
po th e sis
int o ne w t errit ory as an effec t ive ins t rum ent o f
researc h is th ereby d oubly accre dit e d A s D r
Wh e w ell remarks
A ccor din gly th e cases in
which in duct ions from classe s of part s alt o g eth er
different h ave th us j ump ed together belon g only t o
th e bes t e st abl ish e d th eories whic h th e h ist ory o f
A n d as I sh all h ave occas ion t o
s c ience con t ains
refer t o th is peculiar feat ure in th eir evi d ence I
will t ake th e l iberty of describin g it by a part icular
ph rase ; an d will t erm it th e Co nsilience of Ind uc
It is exemplie d princ ipally in some of th e
tions
c ul ar
199
HYPOTHESI S
Wh ewell
Art 110
.
11 Ch
.
200
INDUCTIVE LO GIC
'
66
201
HYPOTHESIS
Lubb o c k , 0 n
A nimals ,
pp
th e
269 , 270
S e nses , I ns tincts ,
and
I ntellig ence
202
INDUCTIVE LOGIC
203
HY POTHES I S
nec tio n,
S ig wart , L og ic , V o l II
.
42 3
CH AP T ER " IV
A N A L O GY
oft en h appens th at th e cause of a ph enomenon
is dis clo s e d by th e fac t th at th e c ause of a s imilar
p h enomenon is kno wn an d th e inference th en fol
lo ws th at th e sim ilar ph enomena h ave s imilar
c auses
S uc h a pro c ess o f inference is d et ermina
tion by analo gy Analo gy cons id ere d in its rel a
t ion t o th e in duc t ive pro c e s se s occupies a tw ofol d
posit ion In th e rst place, wh en a complex p h e
n o m en o n is g iven as preliminary t o th e format ion
o f any hypo th e sis , as t o th e probable cause wh ic h
will in t urn lea d to experiment al d et ermination
by one o f th e inductive meth o ds th e min d instino
tiv ely examine s, w ith s w eepin g glance every d et ail
o f th e p h enomenon for th e purpo s e o f d is c over in g
s ome famil iar feat ures th at may prove su gg es t ive
o f kno wn relat ions an d funct ion s occurring in oth er
sph ere s Analo gical su gg es tion th erefore, initiat e s
every in duct ive in quiry
I n th e secon d place, in every in duc tive g eneral
izatio n th ere is an ext ension o f th e kno wn int o
unknow n re g ion s, by virt ue o f th e principle o f
analo gy expre s se d in wh at w e may s tyle its limit
ing case
Fo r ins t ance wh en w e h ave examine d
Ir
'
204
205
AN ALO G Y
a r
h
an d n d th em al w ays ch arac te r
izo d by th e mark B an d th en by g eneralization
rise t o th e proposition All A s are B, w e d o so by
reason of pos tulatin g an anal o gy betw een all th e
i
in d vid ual A s o f so st rictly an accurat e nat ure, that
it amount s to essent ial i d entity I h ave th erefore
cal le d th is th e limi tin g case o f analo
gy ; an d th is
resemblance o f par t iculars is th e groun d of all uni
versal s wh ereby th ey man ifes t an id entity in th e
mid s t of d ifferences We are th erefore j us ti e d in
af rming th at all in ductive g eneralizations present
an aspec t o f analo g ical inference
A nalo gy, consi d ere d as a mental process, is
g roun d e d in th e law of similarity T h is t en d ency
o f no tin g resemblance makes possible th e ex t ension
o f k no w le dg e
T h e format ion of o ur concept s is ,
in th e m ain, an analo g ical proce dure ; j ust as th e
g eneral izat ion of an un ivers al d epen d s upon our
discriminat ion o f th e element s wh ic h are similar
from th ose wh ich are d ierent W hi le analo gy
th us functions in all th e lo gic al processes of
th ough t, i t i s us ed in a more res tricte d sense t o
in d icat e th at mo d e o f inference especially whic h
procee d s from a numbe r o f observe d ch arac teris t ics
th at are similar, to oth ers whi ch are th ereby judg e d
T h is meth o d is very pot ent as
to be similar al so
I n 1845, F ara day dis
an ins t rum en t o f discovery
covere d the m a gnet ic ro t ary pol arizat ion o f light ;
by an alog ical reasonin g W aitman n in th e follo win g
y ear inferre d th at a s imilar resul t w oul d be att aine d
w ith a beam o f h eat, wh ic h w as aft er ward s experi
o
a
l
en
t
ll
ve
i
e
d
T
h
e
calle
d
na
r
kin
d
s
t
u
r
s
m a y
mber
of
206
INDUCTIVE
LOGIC
522
20 7
ANALO GY
Jevons
P rincip les
f S c ience , p 677
208
INDU CTIVE
LO
GIC
676
209
O GY
A NA L
,
.
I NDU CTIVE
2 10
LO
GIC
'
O GY
211
A N AL
1
2
Janet
Fin al Caus es ,
pp
113 , 114
57 1
INDUCTIVE
212
LO
GI C
'
213
O GY
ANAL
of
th e plant is green ?
Lu
bb oc k
pp
1, 2
INDU CTIVE
214
LO
GI C
bb oc k
Lu
pp
4, 5
2 15
ANALO GY
Sir
Lu
bb ock
pp
66 , 6 7
216
IN DUC T IVE
O G IC
Darwin , Voy ag e of
N aturalis t,
pp
106 , 107
217
O GY
AN AL
Jevo ns
P ri n cip les
f S cien ce
630
218
IND U C T IVE
LO
GIC
1
2
p 287
p 86
219
ANALO GY
S cience,
pp
300302
220
IN DU CTIVE
LO
G IC
'
221
ANALO G Y
222
INDU CTIVE
LO
GIC
223
AN ALO GY
v ac
c in atio n
o f Go d
T h e int ro duc t ion of w inno w in g mach ines
int o S co tland met w ith bitt er O pposi t ion on th e
g roun d th at th e w in ds w ere th e w ork O f G o d, an d
th at th e win d th us articial ly raise d w as a verit able
in to t he heart
air
22 4
INDU CTIVE
LO
GI C
Th e illu st ratio ns u
r,
225
O GY
A NAL
CH A PT ER " V
P R O BA BI L I T Y
2 26
I I Y
PR BAB L T
be
'
228
IND U C T IVE
LO
G IC
'
I I
229
PR BAB L TY
t o d et ermine a c ausal
connec tion more d eni t ely by means of any one o r
more o f th e in d uc t ive meth o d s O f re s earc h and veri
c atio n
Th e resul t O f suc h an inves t i g at ion may
be formulat e d in a proposit ion o f th e form E very
A is B
T h is , s t rictly int erpr et e d h as th e force of,
Every A th at h as been O b s erve d is B
T h e enu
m eratio n of th e kin d of in s t ance s wh ich w e are d is
cu ss in g ih this c h apt er, h o w ever, differ s from this
in th at th e observat ion l ead s t o a tw ofol d resul t,
a s et Of ins tances in wh ic h i t is observe d th at
th e A s are B s al s o, anoth er set, h o w ever in
wh ich th e A s are no t B s
T h ese ins tances are
of s uch a natur e th at th e Observe d A is an ant e
ce d ent so ext remely complex th at th e element
th in it, wh ic h is a c ause capable Of pro ducin g
B, may eith er be absent w i th out pro d ucin g an
appre c iable c h a ng e in th e g eneral nat ure o f A or
bein g presen t may be n eut ralize d by some oth er
element O f A its elf T h e res ult g ives a basis for a
probable inference only; an d th e nature Of th at in
ference will d epen d upon th e prepon d erance of th e
obs erve d h appenin g, o r o f th e failure of th e event
un der inves t i g at ion
T h e probability att ach e d t o suc h an inference,
h o w ever is different from th e probability which
c h aract eri zes th e nat ure of enumerat ive in d uction
I n th e latt er wh en th e observat ion h as been w id ely
ext en d e d an d no except ions n ot e d it is u sual t o s ay
th e resul t expre ss e d in th e proposit ion Every A is
B h as th e force o f a h i gh d e g ree O f probabili ty
I n th e ins tances, h o w ever, whose invest i gat ion
,
or
INDU CTIVE
23 0
LO
GI C
231
PROBABILITY
cumstan ces
232
INDU CTIVE
LO
GI C
'
233
OBABILITY
PR
probabili t y
'
IND UCTIVE
2 34
LO
GIC
2 35
PROBABILITY
th e
be
'
INDUCTIVE LO G I C
23 6
23 7
'
PROBABILITY
d
w m
w o
w m
3 8
m
o
n
m m
o
o
m c o
m m w
w
a
m
Q
H
H
E
D
m
o
a
r
m
m
s
3
3
5
9
i
t
m 2
w g 3
?
r 1
2
:
s
e
3 w
w
m
aE
E
E
3
3
o
a
o
B
o
9
4
m
m
<
O
O
m
a
o
m
we
8
9
3 5
0
o
w
m
m
m
.
abm
o
.
6
~
3
3
d
s
w
a
s
w
e
e
e
N
e
w m w
m
e
a
s
m3
a
3
n
:
5
INDUCTIVE LO G IC
238
m
m
9
6
a
o 6
n m
3
$
mm
a
8
m2
5
3
9
5
u
s
w
w
w
w
w
e
"
a
I:
'o
v
5
8
w
e
8
8
m
m
m
d
m
a
n
a
m
d
w
3
3
.
w
w
w
w
d
a
m
5
m
2
3
.
M
a
m
i
e
3
8
a
s
3 m
o
a
:
u
o
9
3
5
8
5
mm @
n m8 8 5 5 2 8
m8
m
a
8
8 2 g 8g 8 8
ng 2
o
8 o 5 p 5
o m5 0 0 4 4 0
c
la
S
J:
l
88
83
'
a e
l 0$
: 2
.
22
532
: 2
B
8e
2:
2
:
l2
$
l5w
l
"
w
w
h
S
l
u
m
n
a
a8
8n
w
u
8
6
m
a
n
8
n 2
@ am
5
9
E
m
m
6
m l
e
5
2
3
8
d
s
e
a
.
B
Z
u
e
o
o
<
m
.
o
A
S
S
e
e
5
8
8
a
e
E
a
c
h
.
23 9
I I Y
PR BAB L T
"
"
'
240
IND U CTIVE
OG IC
241
PROBABI LITY
Th e
h and well-to-d o
inh abitants
ric
c las se s ,
156
v ry
o ut o f e e
Th e
po o r
h b
v ry
out o f e e
285
in a itants
al
1
9
Gide
405
P olitical E co no my ,
Darwin, Cross and S elf Fertilization, p 165
,
IND U CTIVE
LO
GIC
'
In
c it ie s th e number of
suici d e s per
inh abi t an t s is as follo w s :
P aris 42 ; Lyon s 2 9 ; St P et ers bur g 7 ; Mosco w,
11 ; Berlin 3 6 ; Vienna 28 ; L on d on 23 ; Rome
8 ; Milan 6 ; Ma d rid 3 ; G enoa 3 1 ; Brussels 15 ;
Am st er dam 14 ; Lisbon, 2 ; Ch ris tiania, 25 ; Stock
h olm 2 7 ; Const ant inople 12 ; G eneva 11 ; D res
den, 51
Mad ri d an d L isbon sh o w th e lo w es t,
D res den th e high est gure
T h e averag e annual suici d e rat e in count ries o f
th e w orl d per
person s livin g is given by
D enm ark
Barker as follo w s : S axony
S chle s wig Hols t ein
A ust ria
S wi t zer
lan d
Franc e,
G erman Empire,
Hanover
P russia
Q ueens lan d
Vict or ia
N e w S outh Wale s,
Bavaria
N e w Zealan d
S outh A us tralia
Sw e d en,
N orw ay
Bel gium
En glan d an d
Wales
Ta smania
Hun gary
S co t
lan d
It aly
N eth erlan d s
U nit e d
St at es
Irelan d,
S pain,
Ru s sia,
S u ic id es
European
PRO BABILITY
243
'
244
INDU CTIVE
LOG IC
245
I Y
PR BABIL T
24 6
INDUCTIVE
LO
G IC
'
Jevons
pp
244 , 245
247
I I Y
PR BAB L T
st ances
T h e follo w in g account, t aken from The N ew York
Law J o u rnal illus t rat e s th e probat ive force o f cir
c um stantial evi d ence :
.
h ( Marc h 1895 21 S E R
364) th e S upreme Co urt o f A pp eals o f V irginia sus taine d a
co nvictio n o f mu rder th e c rimin al agenc y b eing es tablis h e d
by circumstantial evidence Th e follo wing extract fro m th e
o pinio n pres ents t h e m ain fac ts wh ic h implic ate d th e d e
fend ant
O n th e 8 th d ay of Dece mb er 189 2 Ph ilip Norm an
Nich o las th e pl aintiff in erro r o ne Jam es Mills and h is
w ife A n na A Mills and th eir th ree small c hil dre n were
living in th e u p p er p art o f Henrico Cou nty o n a farm
kno wn as the W ic kh am Plac e ab o ut o ne m ile fro m James
River Nic h o las w as th e re nter o f this farm an d c ultivate d
it o n s h ares
He w as h ims elf ho wever ch ie y engaged as
In Nic
h olas v
C o mmonwe al t
.
'
248
INDU CTIVE
LO
GI C
'
249
PROBABI LITY
s,
ro
or
r r
250
INDUCTIVE
LO GIC
Th e N ew Yo rk L aw J o u rnal , Th urs ay ,
May
2 , 1895
251
PROBAB I LITY
C HAPTER
" VI
EM P I RI CA L LA W S
2 52
253
LAWS
EM IRI C AL
254
IND U CTI VE
LO
GIC
P I
EM IR CAL LAW
255
Chapter "VI
256
INDU CTI VE
OG I C
EMPIRI
C AL
LA W
25 7
termin ed
2 58
be
INDU CTI VE
LO
GIC
th e S c ien ces ,
53
LAws
PIRI CAL
EM
259
I NDU C TIVE
2 60
LO
G IC
man reason
Re g ar d e d in th is li ght all law s are
empirical
Th e distinc tion h o w ever betw een empirical la ws
in th e sense g enerally un d ers t oo d an d law s ex
pressin g causal relations scienti cally d et ermine d
is a real dis tinc tion, an d a si gni cant one as w ell
A n d this mus t no t be overlooke d ; an d it cann o t
be obli t erat ed by any shift ing of th e point o f
v ie w
F or t o doub t th e vali dity o f an empirical
.
,
.
P IRI CAL LA WS
2 61
EM
C H APT ER
" VII
FA LLA C I ES
26 2
26 3
FA LLA C IES
I
II
III
IV
E rrors
of P ercep tion
E rrors of J u dg ment
E rrors Of th e Imagination
E rrors of th e C oncep tual P rocesses
.
'
26 4
I NDU CTIVE
O G IC
Various
32 1
26 5
FALLAC IES
'
26 6
I NDUC TI VE L O GIC
Errors
26 7
FA LLACI ES
'
'
1 Baco n
26 8
INDU C TI VE
OGI C
26 9
FA LLA C IES
day p
,
128
INDUC TIVE LO G I C
27 0
F ALLA C IE S
27 1
l ec t
etc
27 2
n icc o l aniu m
; i t w as aft er w ar d s prove d to be a
mix ture of iron cobal t, nickel , an d arsenic T h ese
inst anc es are bu t a few o f th e many wh ich ch arac
terize th e h is t ory o f c h emi cal research , an d s tan d
as c onspicuous w i tnesses o f th e d an g er of divorcin g
fancy from fac t
T h e imagination, h o w ever, properly cons t raine d is
most po t ent in su gg es tin g possible causal relations
in cons t ructin g hypo th eses, in d evisin g me th o d s o f
experiment in ord er t o verify th em , and in formin g
.
FA LLA
C I ES
273
d ay
In d iscoverin g th e nature of vol t ai c act ion,
th e essent ial int ellec tual requisit e w as t o h ave a d is
tinc t concept ion o f th at wh ich F ara day expresse d
by th e remarkable ph rase, An axis o f p ower hav
in g equ al an d opp o site fo rces
A n d th e d is tinc tness
o f th is i d ea in F ara d ay s min d s h ines for th in every
part of his w ri tin g s He appears t o possess th e
i d ea of th is kin d of force w ith th e s ame eminent
dist inc t ness wi th wh ic h A rchime d es in th e ancient
an d S t ev inus in th e mo d ern his t ory o f scienc e po s
sesse d th e i d ea o f pressure, an d w ere thus able t o
foun d th e i d ea of mec h anics A n d wh en F arad ay
canno t obt ain th ese di s tinct mo d es o f con c ept ion, h e
is d issat is e d an d conscious o f d efec t 1
I t is i n d ee d a t ouch o f g enius th at enables o ne t o
g rasp an d formulat e a cent ral i d ea th at will unify
an d also universali z e a lar g e bo dy o f seemin gly dis
connect e d an d incong ruous fact s But such an i d ea
mus t be th e expression o f th e relations actually o b
t ainin g, an d no subj ective fancy proj ect e d upon th e
ph enomena th emselves h ow ever clever o r in g en
ious such an ima ginative creation may be If o ne
w ere aske d wh at is th e most efcient ins t rument
of scienti c research , th e ans w er mus t be Th e
Im ag ination
A nd if one w ere aske d wh at is th e
.
147
In
u c tiv e
S cien ces , V o l
III 3d
.
ed
27 4
FALLACIE S
27 5
wg
r
Uebe
509
27 6
I NDU CTIVE
LO
G IC
27 7
FALLA IES
190
V Ch apter
.
II
27 8
INDU CTIVE L OG I C
FALLA
CIES
27 9
,
.
,
i
280
INDUCTI VE
LO
G IC
C H APTER
" VI II
IN D U C T I VE ME TH O D S A s A PPL IED
V A R I O U S S CIE N CE S
THE
THE
TO
28 1
INDU C TIVE
28 2
LO
G IC
283
two
INDUCTI VE LO GI C
2 84
A ND THE
285
S CIE NCES
pp
19 , 20
286
INDU C TIVE
LO
GI C
INDU CT IVE
METHODS AND
THE
S C IENCES
287
INDUCT IVE
288
LO
G IC
'
INDU CTIVE ME T HO DS
AND THE
2 89
S C IENCES
290
29 1
SCIENCES
AND THE
29 2
INDUCT I VE
sults
S CIENCES
of
29 3
29 4
INDU CTIVE
LO
GI C
Blu ntschli, Th e Th eo ry of
th e S tate,
69
INDUC T IVE
S C IENCES
29 5
dd
La
In tro
du
c tio n
to P hi lo sop h y,
116
INDU CTIVE
29 6
O GI C
T h ey m ay be so combine d as m u
Wh at Blunt schli
tu ally t o s t ren gth en o n e anoth er
says of jurispru d enc e may be applie d equally as
well to all sciences th at claim some a p rio ri basis :
Th e ol d s t rife be tw een th e philosop h ical and
his t ori c al sc h ools in G ermany h as alt o g e th er cease d
P eace w as ma d e as early as 1840
S ince th en it is
reco gnize d on all si d es th at th e experiences an d
ph enomena of his t ory mus t be illumine d wi th th e
li ght of i deas an d th at spec ulation is ch il dis h if it
d oes not consi d er th e real con ditions of th e nation s
life 1
It w ill be seen h o w impor t an t a fac t or h is t orical
d at a becomes in all th e scienc es that d eal wi th
human voli tion an d acti v ities Wh at ever hypo th
esis may be frame d, i t must correspon d to th ese d ata
because th ey represent ac tual c on d itions th at mus t
be co or dinat e d in a self consist ent sys t em an d th eir
nature an d relations satisfact orily int erpre t e d
.
C H APTER
HI ST O R I CA L S K ET CH
" I"
OF
I N D U CT I O N
W e n d th e be gi nnin g s
of in ductive inquiry in th e S ocratic or maieutic
meth o d th at art of ment al mi dwifery by wh ich
concep tions w ere t o be delivere d from th e mass o f
in divi dual experiences an d opinions in wh ich th ey
lie conceale d T h e S ocratic proce dure in th e form a
tion of concept ions is t o ques tion every particu lar
vie w an d es timat e it by brin gin g t o g eth er analo g ous
cases an d discoverin g th eir nat ural connection s so
as to expli c at e th e g eneral no tion whic h i t cont ains
an d thus procee d from comparison of par ticulars t o
th e framin g o f g en eral propositions S ocrat es gen
e ralizatio n s w ere many of th em h as t y an d in h is
d esire t o formul at e a g eneral c onception h e over
l ooke d excep t ions an d minimize d d i fcul t ies bu t in
his me th o d th ere w ere th e g erms o f t ruly scien ti c
proce d ure Th e sp h ere o f his meth o d w as h o w ever
limi t e d, as h e applie d it only t o th e illumination o f
e thic al cont roversies
Plat o enrich e d th e S ocrat ic
Pla to (42 7 3 4 7
meth o d of in duct ion by removin g its limit ation t o
ethical inquiry
Plat o w as especially concer n
ed
29 7
298
INDU C TIVE
O GIC
HIS T ORIC AL SK E T CH
tratio n
T IO N
29 9
o r I DUC
minor t erm
F
maj or t erm
mi dd le t erm
M
T h is, th at an d th e o th er S is P
T his th at an d th e o th er S is all M
A ll M is P
Let
INDUCT IVE LO G I C
3 00
479
SK E T C H
HI S TO RI C AL
or
INDU CT ION
301
Wh ewell ,
333
P hilos op hy
II
3 02
INDU C TIVE
O GIC
Wh ewell
369
P h ilosop hy
II
H IS T ORICAL S K E T C H
INDU CT IO N
or
3 03
INDU CTIVE
3 04
LO
G IC
HI S TO RICAL S K E TC H
INDUCTION
or
3 05
INDU C TI VE
30 6
LO
GIC
H IS T O RI C AL S K ET C H
OF
INDUCT IO N
307
P rin cip ia
INDUCT IVE LO GI C
308
ph enomena
b
N o more c auses are t o be ad mi tt e d th an suc h
3
Qu ali ties th at can neith er be increase d nor
diminis he d in int ensity , and th at obtain in all
bo dies accessible to experiment, mus t be consi d ere d
qual i ties o f al l bo dies wh at soever
4 In p h ilosophi c al e x
periment, propositions
collect e d from ph enomena by induc tion are t o
be h el d, notwith s tan din g cont rary hypoth eses, as
ei th er exac tly or approximat ely true, unt il oth er
ph enomen a occur wh ereby th ey are ei th er rend ere d
in uence d by i t
Hersch el s d esi g n was t o mak e
th e meth o d s of science more explicit T h ese are
cont aine d in nine proposi ti ons readily applicable
to particul ar c ases, or rul es of philOS Ophizin g
Only
plan ation of
a
0 F IND
U C T IO N
309
INDU CTI VE
3 10
O GI C
Dr
Whewell (17 9 5
Wh e w ell publis h e d
his P hilosop hy of the I nd u ctiv e S cien ces in 1840,
cont ainin g his sys t em of induction His me th o d in
volves tw o principal processes , th e colli g ation of
fact s and th e explicat ion of conceptions T h e inv e s
tigato r is to g ath er all th e fact s at his disposal , an d
upon th em h e is t o superin duce a concep tion which
will unify th em o r collig at e th em He says th ese
conceptions are supplie d by th e mind, while fact s are
supplie d by th e sense Th is h o w ever, is a dis tino
tion th at separat es so w i dely th e sph eres of th e
par ti c ular fact s , an d th e g eneral concep tions th at
upon suc h a basis a union of th e tw o as explainin g
one by th e oth er w oul d be arti cial an d with no
correspondin g bon d of reali ty
T h e colli gatin g
c oncep t ion d oes no t exis t in th e min d before or
apart from it s exi s t ence in fact T h e att empt t o
t fact s t o rea dy ma d e concep tions is of th e nature
H IST O R I CA L S K ET C H
o r INDUC
T ION
311
312
o lu tio n of lo g ic
Mill s special office as re g ar d s in duction consist s
in his cryst allizing th e princ iples an d practices of th e
scienti c investi g at ors wh o h ad cau ght and re ect e d
th e S pirit o f mo dern research Th e form ul at e d meth
o d s of inductive lo gic , subst antially as given by Mil l,
h ave become th e reco gni z e d meth o d s o f all invest i
gatio n th at is ac t uat e d by a sc h olarly spiri t an d a
sc ienti c h abit Mill s cont ributions t o th e in duc
t ive lo g ic h ave been so lar g ely d rawn from and so
frequent ly referre d t o in th e composi t ion of this
book, as t o nee d n o furth er c omment h ere Th e
w orks o f th e more recent w ri t ers as Lotz e, S i g wart,
Bosanque t J evons , Venn etc h ave also been notice d
in th e bo dy of th e t ext Th eir w ork is larg ely crit
ical, an d no dis tinct in duct ive s yst em is especially
associat e d with any o f th eir n ames
,
C H A P T ER
""
LO G I CA L E " E R C I S E S
3 13
314
INDUCTIVE
GIC
LO
LO G I CAL
IS ES
315
E" ERC
abs t rac ti on
8 A l so of th e follow in g remark of M E spinas :
If h um an ac tivi ty was incompatible wi th th e ord er
o f thi n g s , th e ac t of boilin g an e gg w o ul d h ave t o be
re gar d e d as a miracle
9 I t h ad lon g been known th at gras s h oppers
an d cricke t s h ave on th eir an t erior le gs t wo pecu l
iar g l assy, g eneral ly more or less ov al , d r um l ike
s tr u ctures ; bu t th ese w ere suppose d by th e ol d er
ent omolog is ts t o se rve as res onat ors an d t o rein
force o r int ensify th e w ell known chi rpin g sound s
whic h th ey pro duce J oh ann es Mull er w as th e
rs t wh o su gg es te d th at th ese d rums or tympana
ac t like th e tympanum of o ur o wn c ars an d th at
th ey are real ly th e ex t ern al part s of a t rue au di
t ory app aratus T h at any ani mal s h oul d h ave its
ears in its le g s soun d s no d oubt, a p rio ri very
unlikely and h ence probably th e t rue fun c tion of
this Or g an w as s o lon g un suspec te d S I R J O HN
.
LU BBO CK
I NDU CT IVE
3 16
LO
G IC
RE
SS O E
LI STE R
If th e lu n g s be emptie d as perfectly as po s
sible an d a h an dful of c o tt onwool be place d a g ains t
th e mouth an d nos t rils and you inh ale th rou gh it
i t will be foun d o n expirin g this air th rou gh a glass
tube th at it s free do m from oatin g matt er is mani
fes t T h e application o f this is obvious ; if a phy
s ician w is h es t o h ol d back from th e lun g s of h is
pat ient or from his o wn th e g erms , or virus by which
cont agious disease is propag at e d h e will employ a
cott on w ool respirat or PR O FE SS O R T Y N D A LL
12 In th e d esert of N orth A frica wh ere nei th er
t rees brus hw oo d, nor even un dulat ion of th e surface
afford th e sli ght es t prot ection t o i t s foes a m o di
cation of color in ani mals wh ic h sh all be assimilat ed
t o th at o f th e surroun din g c ount ry is absolut ely
necessary Hence wi th out exception th e upper
plumag e of every bir d, wh eth er lark ch at, sy lvian,
or san d g rouse, an d also th e fur o f all th e smaller
mamm al s an d th e skin of all snakes an d li z ar d s is
o f o n e uniform is abelline , o r san d color
W A LL A CE
13 Dar wi n in inves t i g at in g th e d i fference in
w ei ght between cros s an d self fer tilize d plant s,
foun d th at th e six nes t crosse d plant s avera g e d
ounces , whils t th e six nes t self fer tilize d
plant s avera g ed only
ounces or as 100 t o 22
14 Bees i ncessant ly visi t th e o w ers of th e com
11
'
LO GI C AL
E" ER CIS ES
3 17
all
DA RW IN
INDU C TI VE
3 18
O GIC
'
16
S Y LV AN U S
M O R GA N
16 52
'
L O G I C AL
RC ISES
3 19
E" E
INDU C TIVE
3 20
LO
GIC
L O G IC AL
23
R IS ES
3 21
E" E C
A rfv e d so n
I NDU CT IVE
3 22
LO
G IC
'
TA IT
32
O ne
of
J oule s
LO
G I C AL
R ISES
3 23
E" E C
of th e g o d s c ausation
3 5 I t h as been Sh o w n by observat ion th at over
driven catt le, if kille d before recovery from th eir
fat i gue, become ri gi d an d pu t refy in a surprisin g ly
Sh ort time A sim ilar fac t h as been observe d in th e
case o f anim al s h unt e d t o d eath, cocks kille d durin g
T h e cont rary
a ght an d sol d iers slain in ba tt le
is remarke d wh en th e musc ul ar exercise h as no t
been g reat o r excessive
s su s
3 6 A correc t an al ysis of lapis lazul i w a
peCted to be erroneous becau se th ere S eeme d t o be
no thi n g in th e element s as si gne d t o i t wh ich w ere
.
I NDU CT I VE
324
O GI C
LE CO N TE
O G I C AL
C I S ES
3 25
E"E R
INDUCTI VE
326
LO
GIC
logia
41
OGI C AL
3 27
C IS ES
E"ER
to graph y
'
328
INDUCTIVE L OG IC
O G I C AL
45
C ISES
3 29
E"ER
3 30
I NDUCTI VE LOG IC
LO
GICAL
33 1
E" ERCI S ES
,
,
INDUC T I VE
33 2
LO
G IC
L OG ICAL
33 3
C ISES
E" ER
'
"
3 34
tiatio n in
i
d eney t o unit e s feeble
6 0 I n afrmin g th at th e gro wth o f th e bo dy is
mech anic al an d th at th ou ght, as exercise d by u s,
h as it s correlat ive in th e ph ysics o f th e brain, I
th ink th e posit ion of th e mat erialis t is s t at e d, as
far as th at position is a t enable one I th ink th e
mat eriali st w ill be able nally t o maintain th is po
sitio n a g ains t all attacks ; bu t I d o no t th ink in
th e present con dit ion of th e hu man mind th at h e
can pas s beyon d th is posit ion I d o not th ink h e is
ent itle d t o say th at h is molec ular g roupin g s and his
molec ular mo tions explain every th in g I n reality
th ey explain nothin g T h e ut most h e can afrm i s
th e associat ion of th e two classes of p h enomena, of
wh ose real bon d o f union h e is in absolut e i gnorance
T h e problem o f th e connec t ion of bo dy an d s oul is as
insoluble in it s mo d ern form as i t w as in th e presei
Ph osph orus is kno wn t o ent er int o th e
entic a g es
composit ion of th e human brain, and a trench ant
G erman w rit er h as exclaime d Ohne Ph o sph or
kein G e danke
T h at may o r may not be th e case ;
but even if w e knew it t o be th e case, th e kno wle dg e
w oul d no t li ght en o ur d arkness
TY N DA LL
.
LO G ICAL
61
33 5
ExERCIS Es
INDU CTIVE LO G IC
3 36
LO GIC AL
C I SES
3 37
E"ER
Chemistry
S ir Ch arles
338
I NDU CTIVE
LO
G IC
Joule
69
s exper iment s s h o w th at wh en h eat is
pro duc e d by th e consumpt ion o f w ork a d enit e
quant ity of work is require d t o pro duce th at amount
o f h eat wh ic h is kno wn t o th e p h ysicis t s as th e uni t
o f h eat ; th e h eat th at is t o say , wh i c h is necessary
t o rai s e o n e g ramme of wat er th rough one d e g ree
centigra d e T h e quanti ty o f w ork necessary for
th is is accor ding to Joule s bes t experiment s, equal
t o th e w ork wh ic h a gramme woul d perform in fal l
in g th rou gh a h eight o f 425 met res
I n or d er t o s h o w h o w closely concord ant are his
num bers I will adduce th e resul t s o f a fe w series
of experiment s wh ich h e obt aine d aft er intro d u c
in g th e lat es t improvement s in h is metho d s
(1) A series of experiment s in wh ich w at er w as
h eat e d by fric tion in a brass vessel I n th e int erior
o f this vessel a ver t ical axle provi d e d w ith six t een
pa ddle s was rot at ed th e e ddies thu s pro duce d bein g
broken by a serie s o f proj ec t in g barriers , in wh ic h
part s w ere cut out lar g e enou gh for th e pa ddles t o
pas s th rou gh T h e value o f th e equivalent w as
met res
(2) Two S imilar experiment s, in which mercury
in an iron vessel was subs t it ut e d for w at er in a
bra s s o ne gave 425 an d
met res respec t ively
(3 ) T w o series of experiment s, in wh ich a
conical rin g rubbe d ag ainst anoth er both sur
roun d e d by mercury, g ave
an d
met res
respec t ively
Exact ly th e sam e relat ions be tw een h eat an d
.
LO
G ICAL
339
C ISES
E" ER
3 40
I N DE "
Bo tany 283
Bo yl e 104 132
Brad l ey , 22
Brah e Tyc h o 76 304
Brew s ter 40 97 98
Bro wn 59
Bull en , 247
Buns en, 150 , 245
.
Ad am s , 147
A d er ial
v b
p ob ability 232
eg at es P o b ability as
r
Agg r
r
ai
,
fec ting , 234 if
A g reeme nt , Me t o d o f , 84 , 86
104 , 128 , 259 , 27 5
Al g e raic al lo gic , 219
pp
Anal o g y , 35 , 39 , 44 if
204 ff , 28 3 , 29 1
An al ys is , 60 , 6 2 , 186
A
e rc e tio n , 3 , 266
A q u a en d ente , 211
202,
p
Arithmetic al m eth o d
37
A ris to tl e 16 , 46 , 50 , 304
Asso c iatio n o f id eas , 267
Astro no my, 284
C
C
Attentio n , 265
p b b
Bac on ,
rancis ,
16 , 46 , 7 2 , 73 ,
94 , 163 , 199 , 267 , 269 , 27 1, 27 5 ,
27 6 , 300 , 303 , 304 , 309 , 3 11
Bac o n , Ro g er, 300
Bain , 16 , 220
.
Barrett , 6 1, 264
Bas is o f ro a ility , 232
Ben e e 3 6
Be ud ant, 141
Bio l o gy, 216 , 284
Bl u ntsc li, 294 296
Bo o l e , 2 19
Bos an qu et , 7 , 26 27 , 29 , 40 , 42
.
p b b
58 , 8 1, 3 12
C
C
Ch
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
p
p
3 41
INDE"
942
84 , 85 , 130 if
o n se rv at io n o f ene rgy , 5 2 ff ,
7 1, 7 2 , 28 8 if
o n silie nc e o f ind uc t io ns , 198
o nte nt , ex lic it and im lic it ,
o f,
C
C
Co -o
'
pe
rati
C o pernic us 304
Co r el atio ns 67
Cou nteracting c aus e 7 0
Co u nter pro b ability 231
Cuvier 9
F
a
6 8 , 7 7 , 113 ,
16 1, 17 5 ,
s,
Darwi n , G H , 111
Davy , S ir Hu m ry , 149 , 206
27 3
Ded uc tio n
ph
ind uc tio n , 16 ff
and
85 , 10 1 ff , 117 , 149
Disco e ry , 202
.
hamel
Du
j min
en a
48 , 49 , 107 ,
275 ff
,
204 , 20 5 , 256 ff ,
eo l o g y , 284 ff
id e , 144 , 241
il e rt , 3 04
l au er, 155
o re , 167 , 17 7 , 206 , 211, 264 ,
266
ra e r, 115
re en , 13 , 45, 5 0, 58
.
G
G
G b
G b
G
G b
G
Guyot
97
28
Eliminatio n , 90
Ellis , 213
Em iric al asis o f ro a il it y ,
232
Em iric al l aws , 3 8 , 2 52 , 276
En um e ratio n , 4 3 , 45 ff , 9 1,
228 ff
E is te mo l o g y , 2 6 , 5 8
Eth ic s , 295
.
p b b
44
S ee Tel e ol ogy
c au se .
G
.
160,
273
18 1, 187 ,
.
F
Fi l
Fl n 223
F " 114
F anklin B
o re
ru
o re
Ch arles
F t nd t th 19 20
Fall i 262 ff
Fa d ay 6 1 74 112 114
na
Darwin ,
9 7 , 17 6 ,
p
p
p
ra
ac es ,
10 , 77 if
282
Ex lanat io n , 14
Ex l anatio n , Histo ric al , 291
Ex lic it c o n tent , 6
ac
69
p eriment
Ex
149 , 152 , 2 17 ,
27 5 , 308 ff
Hi o c rates , 223
Hist o ric al e x l anatio n , 291
Ho ll and , 217
.
pp
Hume , 4
Huyg h ens
,
15 8
3 43
I N DE "
Hypo th es is ,
42, 93 , 17 4 it , 210
6 . La ate r, 18
27 1 ff , 284, 308
Law , 30 , 3 1
H po t etic al uni ersal , 31
Le o nard o d a inci, 32, 301
Le errie r, 147
Linn aeus , 217
I
Lis te r, 219
o l s o f Bac on , 269 ff
Lo ck e , 16 , 307
ma inatio n , 185 , 202 , 263 , 27 1 ff Lo c er 208
y ,
t
if
m lic it con ent, 6
Lo t z e , 22 , 25 , 26 , 29 , 31, 46 , 58 ,
ncrement of pro a ili ty , 233 ,
109 , 188 , 189 , 312
Lo n a, 241
nd uctio n and
e uc tio n , 16 if
Lu o c , 83 , 114 , 120 , 124 ff ,
Ind ucto -d ed uc ti e me t o d , 156
195 , 2 12 , 213
if , 282
Lyel l , 138 , 182
nd uc ti e azard , 24
nference , 1 if
nstances , Num er o f, 42
Malt u s , 219 , 256
nsurance , 240
M ans el , 57
ntermixture o f effec ts , 59
Math em atic al met o , 172, 173
n aria ilit
o f c au s atio n, 51
M ech anic al co m ination, 7 0
54, 58
Med ic ine , 99 , 100
n erse ro lem , 27
M ill , J S 16 , 25, 30, 54 57 , 59 ,
6 8, 7 2 , 7 9 , 84 , 86 , 129 , 156 , 201,
202 , 220 , 254, 260, 298 , 309
ames , 10
Minto , 3 12
Janet, 209 , 210, 211, 224
Mo lar fo rc es, 7 1
en in, 7 2 , 164 , 165
M
o l ec ul ar o rces, 7 1
r
1
2
22
enne , 77 ,
Je o n , 27 29 , 115 , 143 , 17 0,
208, 217 , 236 , 246 , 312
206
o int met o d , 84 , 85 , 117
N at ural ind s 67 205 206
.
Id
I g
I p
I
b b
dd
bb k
v h
I
I
I
I
I
I v
b
.
I v
hd
p b
J k
J
J
h
Jo ul e 167
Judgment
Fall ac ies
o f,
263
Juris pruden
c e,
293 t
K ant , 53
K e ler, 7 6 , 199 , 304 , 3 10
K irc er, 217
K irc h off, 245
h
h
Ob servati on
O wen 215
,
72 ff
91, 227
d
p
La d , 294
La lac e, 153 , 179
.
Pas te u r, 9 8 , 99 , 160
Pe rc e tio n , 2 ff
INDE"
3 44
Fallacies
Perc e tio n,
26 3 ff
o f,
Sc wann, 219
S c ience , 33
Sc ienc es and th e in uctive
m eth o d , 281 ff
S cie ntic analysis
S ee Caus al
.
anal ysis
b b
279 , 289 ff
Psyc o lo g y and
.
h
history 291 E
Ps yc ho l og y Meth o d in 294
,
282
Q u etel et , 236
.
p
p
Sp
reng el ,
2 13
T
.
Q uantitative d eterminatio n , 7 2 ,
13 1 ff
17 7 , 180 , 19 7
Tel eo lo gy , 208 ff
.
222 if
278
Tel esius , 3 02
Tennyso n , 12 , 51
Th o m s o n , 13 3 , 15 1, 153
To tality , Law o f, 7
Truth and fac t , 19 , 20
Tynd all , 7 5 , 7 6 , 80 , 81, 102, 13 5 ,
166 , 183 , 185 , 217
.
Rail ro ad
Reality ,
acc id ents ,
Inference
referenc e
to , 13
236
an ind irec t
.
Red uc tio n, 28 , 42
Resid ues , 84 , 85 , 146 if
Ric ard o , 13 2
Ro manes , 200
Rul e , 30
S aig ey , 89 , 135
S aint-Pierre , 224
S c h l eie rmac h er, 16
51, 54 if
ni e rsal , 12 , 18 , 27 5
ni e rsal c ausat io n , 51
.
U v
U v
3 45
IM ) EK
V
Venn
77 , 106 , 111,
Veric atio n
W all ac e
Wb
aw ,
e er s r
156 if
19 1
W h ateiy
W hew el l
30 1 ,
57 , 3 11
3 0 , 198 , 201,
3 10
.
Zo dl ogy, 283