Date

Time
Class
Subject
Topic
Objective

: 8 November 2013
: 9.00 9.30 am.
: 5 Brilliant
: Additional Mathematics
: Probability
:Understand and solve probability problem solving by apply

Learning Outcomes

Theoram
: At the end of this lesson, students should be able to:

Bayes

1) Students will learn that the knowledge of an events outcome can

affect the probability of the unknown outcome of an event that has

already occurred.
2) Students will learn how to apply Bayes' Theorem to solve
probability problems.
Moral Value
Teaching Aids
Teaching method
Reference

: Cooperation
: Power points, marker pen, whiteboard, handout & geogebra.
: Inquiry & questioning.
: 1) Add Math Form 5 textbook.
2) Curriculum specification Add Math form 5

Step of teaching procedure:

Stage
Set of Induction
(5 Minutes)

Instructional Activity
1) Teacher will present to the students the
following situations that there are four jellybeans
left in a bag where two are grape and two are
licorice.
2) Teacher will ask them the questions regarding
the two given situations,
I.

II.

Situation 1
Teacher will reach in to the bag without
looking and choose a jellybean at random,
then teacher ask students a few question:
what is the probability that it is a grape
one and what is the probability that choose
a licorice jellybean.
Situation 2
Teachers will choose a grape jellybean.
Then will reach into the bag again to
choose another jellybean at random. What
is the probability that I pull out the other
grape one? What is the probability that I
take a licorice one?
Why do the
probabilities change from what they were
before?

Learning Activity
1) Students pay attention to the teacher and
looking the situations.

2) Students pay attention and looking the

situations. They also actively answer the
questions asked by teacher.
I.

Situation 1
Student will respond toward teacher
question. They will give the answer
about the probability that it is a grape
one is and probability of licorice jelly
is 1/2

Development
Stage

Step 1 : Introduction (5 minutes)

1) Teacher will show the slide that contains a
question of finding the probability problem
solving.

1) Students need to take out a piece of paper to

write down the question.

Question:
Marie is getting married tomorrow, at an
outdoor ceremony in the desert. In recent
years, it has rained only 5 days each year.
Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted
rain for tomorrow. When it actually rains, the
weatherman correctly forecast rain 90% of
the time. When it doesnt rain, he incorrectly
forecasts rain 10% of the time. What is the
probability that it will rain on the day of
Maries wedding?
2) Teacher will ask student copy down the
question and give time for them to generate
their own idea in order to solve the question.

2) Students need to copy the question and try

to solve the question.

Step 2 : Understanding the question (10 minutes)

1) Teacher will ask students what is the possible

outcome of this situation. Teacher select

randomly one student to respond.

2) Teacher respond toward students answer

and describe that possible outcome of this

situation are it rains or it does not rain is a

sample space.
3) Teacher will ask student the situation where it

rains or it does not rain can be occurring at the

same time.

4) Teacher ask student how to perform the

notation for these event

1) The selected student needs to respond

towards teacher question. Student will
defined the possible outcome of this
situation are it rains or it does not rain
2) Student will pay attention.

3) Student will reply it cannot be occur at the

same time. (it meant that it is mutually
exclusive event)

4) Student selected need to respond and

teacher will highlight the information about
the event by using tools in a power point
slide presentation.

In recent years, it has rained

only 5 days each year.
When it actually rains, he incorrectly
forecasts rain 90% of the time.
When it doesnt rain, he incorrectly
forecasts rain 10% of the time.

5) Students respond towards teacher question

by present the notation for all three event:
Event A1: It rains on Maries wedding
EventA2: It does not rain on Maries
wedding.
Event B : The weatherman predicts rain

Step 3: Planning the solution (10 minutes)

1. Teachers ask a student what the first step after
highlight the information and present the
notation of the events A1 when it rains in the
term of probability.

1. Students need to respond regarding the

teacher question. They will present the
notation of the events A1 when it rains in the
term of probability.

P(A1) =
2. Teacher asks students what are the probability
of events A2 where it does not rain

5
365

= 0.0137 (it rains 5 days

out of the year)

2. Students will respond and defined the

probability of event A2 where it does not
rain:
P(A2) =

360
365

= 0.986 ( It does not rain

3. Teacher asks the students what is the

probability of Event B where the weatherman
predict on time it rains. Teacher will stimulate
the student thinking to perform the event in
Bayes Theorem.

4. Teacher ask students what is the probability of

Event B where the weatherman predict on time
it does not rain.

Step 4:
1. Teacher will ask the students what the first step
to solve this problem is.

2. Teacher ask the students to find the probability

of event it will rain on the day of Maries
wedding given the weatherman predicts rain is
P (A1 | B) by applying Bayes theorem.

360 days out of the

year)
3. Student will defined the probability Event
B where the weatherman predict on time it
rains by apply Bayes Theorem:
P(B| A1) = 0.9
(When it rains, the weatherman predicts rain
90% of the time)
4. Students will reply towards teacher question
and defined the probability of event B
where the weathermen predict on time it
does not rain.
P(B| A2) = 0.1
(when it does not rains, the weatherman
predicts rain 10 % of the time)

1. Student will give variety of answer and

will guide to retrieve the probability of
event it will rain on the day of Maries
wedding given the weatherman predicts
rain is P (A1 | B).
2. Students will use the Bayes Theorem
and they will substitute the value in the
formula :

3. Teacher will pick one student to show their

answer in the whiteboard.
3. Student will respond toward teacher and
show their answer:

4. Teacher will ask the student on how to

represent the situation by using tree diagram

5. Teacher asks student to sketch two branch of

tree diagram and ask them what the first node
diagram represent and label.

4. Student will try to stimulate their

thinking on how to represent the
situation by using tree diagram.

5. Students try to sketch tree diagram as

guided by the teacher ask them the first
two branch represent about event rains
on Maries wedding, A1 and event does
not rain on Marie wedding, A2.

6. Teachers ask them to sketch the following

branch to represent event B and ask them to
label node end of this branch.

7. Teacher asks students on how to get the

solution from the tree diagram they have
sketched.

6. Students respond toward teacher and try

to sketch the branch for the Event B
where the weathermen predict rains on
time.

7. Student response. Students calculate and

give their final answer.

1. Teacher concludes the lesson today why need

to use a tree diagram represent the situation
Because it represent event B branch is
the ratio of the probability associated
with the, Ar branch to the sum of the
probabilities associated with all event B
branches of the tree.

1. Students pay attention.

2. Teachers give students chance to ask questions

that relate to today topic.

2. Students will ask questions about unclear

information.

Follow up activity:

Self-Evaluation :

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