The Science Behind Global Warming

The following discussion will address two principal astronomical phenomena to which the earth is
subjected. The first is called "precession" (i.e. the tendency of a rotating body to wander around its
rotational axis (e.g. think of a childs gyroscope spinning and how it tends to also slowly wobble around
while it is spinning)) and the second phenomenon is the obliquity cycle (i.e. the change of tilt angle
oscillating between two extremes).
Precession was discovered by the Greek astronomer Hipparchus (~200 BC) when he compared records
from his own time with older charts. What he saw was that the equinoxes in his day (i.e. where the sun's
path crosses the celestial equator) were in a different position than the older comparison charts
showed. This is due to a gyroscopic precession of the earth's spin axis that takes ~26,000 years to
complete.
If you were to run a line through the spin axis of the earth the precession would cause it to inscribe a
circle that passes through various celestial objects over the 26,000 year cycle.

One consequence of this precession is that the North Star, Polaris, is drifting away from north. It is only
the "north star" by coincidence today. Thuban, Vega, and Deneb will all take turns being our north star
in the distant future.
The physical cause of the spin-axis-precession is a torqueing (twisting) action of the earths crust, caused
mostly by the sun and the moon gravitational influence forming an equatorial bulge on the earths
surface. This gravitational tug of war distorts the earths crust and induces the gyroscopic precession.
It should be noted that the earths orbit around the sun is not circular; it is a somewhat distorted ellipse
where the sun is offset from the center by about 2.5 million km. When the earth is closest to the sun it is
said to be at perihelion.

The other planets in the solar system have a small gravitational influence that manages to cause the
elliptical orbit of the earth as it spins around the sun to also precess, with a period of ~71,000 years. This
means that the earths orbit around the sun isnt a single ellipse but a series of loops that form a flowerpetal shape as the major axis of the earths elliptical orbit also precesses within the orbital plane (e.g.
the Earth's orbital plane is properly known as the ecliptic plane). This rotation within the ecliptic plane
is called perihelion-precession. (Note: the drawing below is greatly simplified. Keep in mind that one
complete perihelion-precesion cycle would be 71,000 loops.)

In the 1920s a Serbian geophysicist and astronomer, Milutin Milankovi, theorized that as the earth
precesses around the sun the gravitational influences of the other planets causes its tilt angle (obliquity)
relationship to the sun to vary. This perihelion precession causes a ~41,000-year oscillation cycle in the
obliquity of the earths axis in relationship to the ecliptic plane (i.e. the tilt angle of the earth in
relationship to its ecliptic plane varies as the earth swings slightly above and below the orbital disk). This
oscillation is approximately plus-or-minus 1.3 degrees from its average value of 23.3 degrees. This
number is not absolutely stable; it depends on the combined gravitational alignment of all of the other
planets over time.
The obliquity reached a maximum of 24.6 degrees about 9,500 years ago, and has been decreasing ever
since. The tilt is now near the average value (23.3 degrees), but the rate of change of the obliquity is
near its maximum (i.e. we are on the rapidly falling slope of the curve, and the perceived rate of change
is relatively fast. As we reach the bottom of the curve and start back on the next rise the rate of change
will seem smaller as we dwell around ~22 degrees for eons).
The obliquity for the last 600,000 years is shown below.

Note present time is on falling slope

If you think of the earth spinning around the sun on its ecliptic plane as a constant, a perpendicular
reference line (0 degrees) can be drawn passing through the earth. The earth is currently tilted ~23.3
degrees from this reference and gives us our seasons (i.e. when the earths orbit around the sun is such
that the tilt is facing away from the sun its winter in the northern hemisphere and summer in the
southern hemisphere and when the earth reaches the opposite side of its orbit the tilt faces toward the
sun and the reverse is true).

Approximately 9,500 years ago the tilt was ~24.6 degrees and in approximately another 11,000 years it
will be ~22 degrees. This doesnt sound like much until you consider that 9,500 years ago (7,500 BC);
Neolithic man was in North Africa, the Sahara desert region supported a savanna-like environment, Lake
Chad was larger than the current Caspian Sea, and an ice sheet covered much of North America. Think
about that for a moment! The seemingly insignificant 1.3 degree difference between then and now has
caused an ice-age to recede and the complete desertification of North Africa. It has also provided the
Eden in which mankind evolved from cavemen to astronaut.
The amount of solar radiation that reaches the earth is fairly constant over its history but the earths
curvature causes it to be distributed in climatic zones that man has labeled the tropics, the
temperate zones, and the polar circles. These bands of climate wander across the globe as the tilt of
the earths axis vacillates between its extremes. This is not a theory it is an astronomical fact that has
driven the earths weather long before man-made global climate impact.
The Northern Tropic, the Tropic of Cancer, is the most northerly circle of latitude on the Earths surface
at which the Sun will appear directly overhead at its seasonal zenith. This event occurs once every year,
at the Summer Solstice (i.e. when the earths orbit around the sun brings it to the point that its tilt axis

(toward the North Star) is directly aligned with the Sun). As of 2014, it lies at 23 26' 14.675 north of the
Equator.
Its Southern Hemisphere counterpart, the Tropic of Capricorn, marks the most southerly position at
which the Sun will appear directly overhead. These tropics are two of the five major circles of latitude
that include the Arctic and Antarctic Polar Circles and the Equator that historically mark the maps of the
Earth. The positions of these circles of latitude (other than the Equator) are dictated by the tilt of the
Earth's axis relative to the plane of its orbit (i.e. they are the product of the earths obliquity / ecliptic
plane orientation). The equator is a special case in that it is really just an agreed-upon geographic
waistline around the globe (it is just the halfway marker from each of the geographic poles along the
spin axis).
So if you take a Mercator world map; historical convention dictates that north is up and that the
equator, the tropics, and the other solar referenced circles of latitude run parallel across the map. Keep
in mind that the north reference is currently tilted ~23.3 degrees from the ecliptic plane and reflects the
Tropic of Cancer of modern history that includes parts of Baja Mexico and the southern tip of the
Japanese Archipelago.

The way it is now

At the earths maximum obliquity, 9,500 years ago, the tilt of 24.6 degrees (note: not drawn to scale)
shifted the tropic zones to exclude much of Baja while making Japan more temperate (Note: this
coincides with the last major ice-age in North America when an ice sheet covered as far south as New
York City). The northern polar cap shifted to include much of Canada while most of Siberia was more
temperate. It should be noted that the equator, based on the spin axis, would be skewed across the
tropics as a somewhat illogical reference.

The way it was 10,000 years ago

As the earth continues its oscillating wobble it will eventually (~11,000 years from now) reach the
obliquity minimum of ~22 degrees. At that time the tropics will include most of Baja and all of Australia
while the Arctic Circle will dominate Siberia and the Antarctic ice mass will shift away from Australia and
toward South America.

The way it will be in 11,000 years

This undulating wobble of temperate zones is joined by occasional volcanic activity and solar storms to
manifest itself as cyclical (~41,000 year) global climate change (i.e. the ice sheets in one area will melt
while new ice will form in other areas). It will take place regardless of mankinds involvement. What
little effect man can have with his noxious chemicals and fascination with fire is dwarfed by the gradual
meandering God has built into the system. That doesnt mean you shouldnt be good stewards of the
earths resources, it just means that we are not in the climate change business. God is.
An example of likely impact is the cyclical El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is generally
agreed to be a band of warm water across the Pacific caused by solar activity (i.e. the water that gets
the most direct solar radiation gets warmer than the rest of the ocean). The figure below was generated
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and contrasts the 1997 vs. the 2015 El
Nino sea surface temperatures. It should be noted that it shows a general shift of the El Ninos angular
relationship (i.e. in 1997 the band of warm water ran slightly askew the equator and dipped south to
intersect the coast of Peru but in 2015 the flow now more generally follows the equator and intersects
Ecuador / Columbia). This northern shift follows the change in obliquity that has occurred in the ensuing
~18 years. If this trend continues, the El Nino will directly impact Central America in future years and is
expected to cause major shifts in weather patterns.

What does all this have to do with me? Very little since my life span is so short in relationship to these
time scales (i.e. Im not likely to see a major change in my lifetime), but since we are on the rapidly
falling slope of the obliquity curve and since no one was writing much down the last time it occurred, it
is likely that what we are egoistically calling man-made global climate impact is really the astronomical
clockwork of the spheres.
It means that North America is going to continue to experience global warming while Eurasia is likely to
go into another ice age over the next 11,000 years. The subtleties of mother earths dance may bring
rain to the Sahara again while plunging Japan into a prolonged winter that may again join it to the
mainland in a sheet of ice. If geological records were more accurate, we could reverse the clock and
determine what it was like 11,000 years ago but unfortunately 11,000 years is considered recent in
geological terms and its difficult to derive meteorological projections from rocks.

It doesnt really matter, theres nothing to be done about it. The best we can do is face-the-facts and
prepare for a future of weather that will test our worthiness to call ourselves kings of the hill. My advice
to you global warming quacks is to study the real science of it and find a real job. Forget blaming people
for everything that happens and spend your energy on things like converting sea water for drinking and
sewage for energy. Things that people are going to need; if they should live so long.