Grid-Connected PV in Indonesia

Regulation and Framework Conditions

Dr. Rudolf Rauch, Program Director Renewable Energy, GIZ Indonesia

AHK Business Trip to Indonesia

Grid-connected PV Systems Business and Technological Opportunities
and Developments in Indonesia

Jakarta, 05 May 2014

17/06/2014

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Framework Condition

Indonesia worlds largest island nation (17000 islands)

Largest among the 10 ASEAN nations (240 Mio people)
Capital Jakarta (10 Mio people, 30 Mio in surrounding area)

Economic growth 6.5 p.a., 9 % p.a. increase of electricity demand

Electrification ratio 73%, 70 Mio people without electricity

Jakarta

17/06/2014

Bromo, Java

Raja Ampat, Papua

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Framework Condition

Solar irradiation: 4.1 - 5.5 kWh/m2/d (ca 50% > than Germany)
State utility PT PLN operates more than 5000 power plants
Average capacity 5 MW per power plant

Average electricity generation cost of PLN: 1400 IDR/kWh

In remote areas: > 3500 IDR (for diesel)
Presently installed PV: 40 MW

So far mainly off-grid programs with mixed success

17/06/2014

Page 3

History and Goals

History of RE in Indonesia

Low electrification ratio challenge to electrify islands

Indonesia first comer, started solar in 1980ties

Cheap oil Curse and Blessing

Subsidies: oil = 20 Billion USD/a, electricity: 10 bil. USD/a

Goals of RE in Indonesia
Increase rural electrification from 70% now to 90% by 2020
Decrease CO2 emissions by 26% (relative) till 2020

Increase share of renewables from 6% (2006) to 17% (2020)

Substitute diesel in power generation from 21% now to 3% (2015)

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Renewable Energy Targets

CURRENT CONDITION
2012

Oil
46.77%

2025 TARGET
PRESIDENTIAL REGULATION NO. 5/2006
Coal
33%

Coal
23.91%

Natural Gas 30%

Natural Gas
24.29%

Oil
20%
NRE; 17%

NRE
5.03%

ENERGY ELASTICITY= 1,65

NON FOSSIL ENERGY SHARE 5%
17/06/2014

Biofuel
5%

Nuclear,
Hydro,
Solar,
Wind,
and Other NRE 5%

Geothermal
5%

Liquified
Coal 2%

ENERGY ELASTICITY LESS THAN 1 IN 2025

OPTIMIZING NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
Page 5

Electricity Forecast

Forecast installed power in Indonesia

(8% growth/a)

installed capacity [GW]

1200.0
1000.0

800.0

PLN 10 year power plan:

+60 GW till 2022
Fossil 46 GW (coal, gas)
RE 13 GW (hydro, geoth.)
PV 0.6 GW

6750 kWh/cap/a
Germany now

600.0
400.0
200.0

0.0
2010
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2020

2030

2040

2050

2060
Page 6

Policies and Programs

On-Grid

Feed-In-Tariff for Hydro, Geothermal and BioEnergy in place

Feed-In-Tariff for BioEnergy under revision
140 MW grid-connected PV through IPPs, quota for 80 locations (>1MW)
Net-Metering for Roof-Top PV (PLN internal regulation)
5 1MW grid connected systems on various islands (EBTKE/MoEM)

Off Grid

PLN: 1000 Island Program (PV-Diesel-Hybrid, PV-Bat.) 634 MW by 2022

EBTKE/MoEM: 244 PV-Battery village systems 15 kWp (2012/13)
EBTKE/MoEM: 154 PV-Battery (2014 plan)
PV-Battery village systems from other ministries

Page 7

PLN Generation Costs 2012

IDR / kWh

Av. selling price: 730 IDR/kWh

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

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Avg. generation cost

1300 IDR/kWh

Page 8

Development of Electricity Prices

Electricity selling price over 14 years for industry
1700
1600
1500

1400
1300
1200
IDR/kWh

1100
1000

I1/Low voltage

900
I2/Low voltage

800

700

I3/Medium voltage
(non Gol public
companies)
I3/Medium voltage
(Go public
companies)
I4/High voltage

600
500
400
300
Apr-00
Oct-00
Apr-01
Oct-01
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14

200

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Page 9

Regions for PV Application in Indonesia

Banda
Aceh

Medan

Samarind
a

Dumai
Pontiana
k

Highest solar irradiation

Solar PV

Padang
Jambi

Banjarmasin

Lampung
Jakarta
Surabaya
Denpasar

elect.ratio < 50%

Existing Transmission Line
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Planned Transmission Line

Page 10

Diesel-Fuel replacement by Grid-Connected PV

Varying regional solar irradiation

considered

20% PV-share of average daytimeload

2 GWp
potential

At least 2.15 Mio tCO2e Saving-Potential (850 mio liter diesel-fuel)

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Page 11

Conclusion

PV in Indonesia at very early stage

PV targets still very modest
PV focus on diesel substitution and rural electrification
Supportive policies still need to be developed

Rising electricity prices & net metering > new opportunities

Grid interconnection issues for small island grids
Success stories good quality grid connected PV still missing

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Page 12

Catch the Sun!

Make it Run!

rudolf.rauch@giz.de
17/06/2014

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