Setco Automotive LTD: Opportunity Boost CMP: 198

Edel Invest Research
Not Rated
Setco Automotive Ltd

Opportunity Boost
CMP: 198
Setco Automotive Ltd. (SAL) primarily manufactures clutches for commercial vehicles (CV) with 85%
market share in the MHCV segment. The companys topline stands at INR 360 cr (20% 5-year CAGR)
and boasts of 25% average ROCE. Management is targeting INR 1000 cr sales in FY18 (2.5x FY14
sales) led by 1) entry into new segments (LCV, Tractors) 2) penetrating export markets 3) capturing
unorganized market through independent sales channel and 4) change in emission norms. The
company has initiated a capex of INR 240 cr for the backward integration of castings and diaphragm
springs in order to substitute imports. In our view, this is beneficial for SAL, as it will develop a
reliable supply base with high-quality casting capabilities going forward. Moreover, entering into
the LCV/Tractor clutch market will increase its opportunity size by 2.5x.
Sahil Shah
+91 (22) 4088 5887
sahilh.shah@edelweissfin.com
Aditya Vishvak Sundaram
+91 (22) 4088 3265
aditya.sundaram@edelweiss.in
Bloomberg:
SETC:IN
52-week range (INR):
220 / 64
Share in issue (crs):
2.7
M cap (INR crs):
528
Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE
32/-
:(000):
SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
Others
22.38
DII
10.86
Promoter
64.77
FII
1.99
210
180
Entering new segment increases opportunity size by 2.5x

SAL management is targeting INR 1000 cr sales in FY18 (2.5x FY14 sales) led by 1) entry into new
segments (LCV & Tractors) 2) increasing presence in key export markets 3) capturing unorganized
market through an independent sales channel and 4) change in emission norms. The company has
developed clutch plates and covers for LCV segment and is developing the same for the Tractor
segment (OEMs have approached SAL). We believe that Tractor and LCV clutch market will give an
opportunity of about INR 1000 cr. The company is expected to start supply of Tractor clutches from
FY16E. Management is targeting INR 200 cr revenue from new LCV and Tractor segment by FY18.
EBITDA margins at cyclical lows, to rise going forward; MHCV bottomed out
Historically, SAL has grown at 20% CAGR despite being a supplier to the highly cyclical MHCV (OEM)
segment, as more than 50% of its sales come from the more profitable aftermarket segment. Given
that LCV & Tractor clutches priced at 1/3 of MHCV clutches, EBITDA margins and ROCE are expected
to reduce going forward. However, we believe that increasing the mix of high-margin exports and
independent after-market foray will lead to 16-17% EBITDA margins on a stable state basis. Also, the
company will be targeting LCV after-market aggressively through its own independent distribution
network, which is a high-margin segment compared to existing sales channel.
SAL dominates MHCV clutch market with 85% market share in OEM segment
SAL manufactures clutches for the MHCV segment and has accordingly secured a market share of
85%. SAL supplies 100% of clutch requirements for Tata Motors, Volvo and Daimler in India and ~70%
of Ashok Leylands requirement. The company will remain a dominant player in the domestic MHCV
clutch market given the lead time to develop clutches (~4-5 years) and advantage from long-standing
relationships with OEMs (due to quality, cost, timely supplies etc).
Valuations
We believe that EPS of the company is lower due to cyclically low EBITDA margins (11% Vs 19% peak),
which will revive from here onwards. Incremental growth will come from new segments (LCVs &
Tractors), venturing into after through independent channel, revival in the domestic MHCV cycle and
EBITDA margins inching up to stable state.
150
120
90
60
30
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Setco
Sensex
November 10, 2014
255
Financials (INR Crs)

Net revenues
EBITDA
Adjus ted profi t
Di l uted EPS (Rs .)
Di l uted P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
ROAE (%)
ROACE (%)
FY10
215
38
18
20.2
9.8
15.9
32%
32%
FY11
309
59
33
18.7
10.6
10.4
44%
39%
FY12
375
63
42
24.1
8.2
9.6
40%
36%
FY13
359
48
27
10.3
19.3
12.8
19%
20%
FY14
353
34
23
8.7
22.8
17.8
13%
11%

Entering new segments to boost opportunity by 2.5x
SAL is looking at new avenues to expand its sales besides improving margins by entering relatively lesscyclical. The companys management is targeting INR 1000 cr sales in FY18 (2.5x FY14 sales) led by 1) entry
into new segments (LCV, Tractors) 2) penetrating into export markets 3) capturing unorganized market
through independent sales channel and 4) change in emission norms. The company has developed clutch
plates and covers for the LCV segment and is developing the same for the tractor segment (OEMs have
approached SAL for the same). We believe that the Tractor and LCV clutch market opportunity is about INR
1000 cr. The company is expected to start tractor clutch supplies by FY16E. Management is targeting INR
200 cr revenue from new LCV and Tractor segment by FY18.
Marketsize of opportunity for Setco Automotive
Sales Mix FY14

Exprots
8%
Independent
Aftermarket
9%
OEM
30%
OE
Aftermarket
53%
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1000
550
MHCV
LCV+Tractor
Source: Company, EdelInvest Research
SAL was present in the INR 450 cr after-market segment through the OES route (eg Tata Motors authorized
dealer) and has most recently entered the independent after-market segment, which is largely serviced by
the unorganized players. Typically, a MHCV clutch in the warranty/free service period is replaced with
authorized dealer (OES), however after first two replacements, fleet operators tend to go to local
mechanics, which is dominated by the unorganized players (50% of after-market). The unorganized sector is
shrinking due to growing awareness about the advantages of genuine parts and lower downtime of trucks,
which is leading to a shift to organized players like SAL. Approximately 90% of OEM fitments come with the
companys clutch (Brand: Lipe), leading to strong after-market demand. Since the launch of an
independent sales network (47 touch points) in H2FY14, the company clocked sales of INR 20 cr per quarter
from this network, which signifies a strong brand pull for Lipe. We believe this traction will continue and
the company will be able to capture a larger pie from the unorganized after-market segment.
MHCV share of organized and un-organized players
Un-organized
50%
Organized
50%

256

The companys exports have doubled in the last two years on a low base and we believe that exports growth
momentum will continue going forward. Management is targeting exports of INR 150 cr by FY18. The
company is exclusive supplier to Volvo and Daimler clutch requirements in india and is in talks with global
players for their global operations. We believe that SAL could get more global OEM business going forward
due to UK R&D hub, global after-market sales set-up and credibilty from supplying to Daimler/Volvo in India.
Export Revenue
(INR Crs)
40
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
30
20
10
0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Export revenue
FY11
FY12
FY13
YoY % change
Change in emission norms (expected to kick in from FY17) provides an additional opportunity to SAL in
terms of higher realizations. Historically, emission norms have increased clutch realisations by ~25% while
margins have remained static, implying higher EBITDA per clutch. With BSIV implementation set for all-India
rollout in FY17, we believe the companys clutch realizations for OEM supplies will increase by 25-30%.
257

EBITDA margins at cyclical lows expected to rise; MHCV bottomed out
Historically, SAL has grown at a 20% CAGR despite being a supplier to the highly cyclical MHCV (OEM)
segment, as more than 50% of its sales come from the more profitable after-market segment. Given that
LCV & Tractor clutches are priced at 1/3 price of MHCV clutches, EBITDA margins and ROCE are expected to
fall going forward. However, we believe that increasing mix of high-margin exports and independent aftermarket foray will lead to 16-17% EBITDA margin on a stable state basis. Also, the company will be targeting
LCV after-market aggressively through its independent distribution network, which is a high-margin segment
in itself.
Segmental Margin profile
25%
Sales mix shift from FY14 to FY18E

100%
20%
15%
80%
10%
60%
5%
40%
Exprots
Independent
Aftermarket
OE Aftermarket
OEM-LCV
OEM-MHCV
0%
7%
20%
15%
93%
65%
20%
0%
FY14
MHCV
Exports
FY18
LCVs & Tractors
Currently, margins are at historic lows of 10.5% Vs average margins of 16%. We believe that the companys
margins are set to come back to ~16% levels in view of the impending revival in domestic MHCV cycle
(freight rates already rising) and improvement in domestic economic activity.
Gross Margin & EBITDA Margin
44.0%
25.0%
43.0%
20.0%
42.0%
15.0%
41.0%
10.0%
40.0%
5.0%
39.0%
0.0%
FY09
FY10
FY11
EBITDA Margins (RHS)
FY12
FY13
FY14
Gross Margins (LHS)

Backward integration to ensure reliable low-cost supply: Capex of INR 240 cr over 3 years
Lava Cast will be the companys subsidiary with 80% stake held by SEL while the remaining shareholding will
be held by the joint venture (JV) partner Lingotes Especiales, Spain (which will also provide technology
know-how for high-quality casting). The company is planning to set up casting facility near the existing plant
at Kalol with capex of INR 160 cr (debt: INR 110 cr) over three years. As per our interaction with
management, high-quality casting command higher margins and are in short supply in India. Out of the total
initial capacity of 25000 MT, ~50% will be used for SALs own requirement (to fulfill 100% casting needs) and
the balance will be utilized for exports. The company is also incurring capex of INR 70 cr for indigenous
manufacturing of diaphragm spring, which are currently imported. The local manufacturing of these
products will usher in reliable supply in India at a lower cost.
258

SAL dominates MHCV clutch market with 85% market share in OEM segment
SAL manufactures clutches for the MHCV segment and has secured a market share of 85% in the domestic
market. Globally, there are six clutch manufacturers (most of who have been present in India), focusing on
Cars, LCV and Tractors. Our understanding suggests that global players did try to enter into the Indian MHCV
clutch space but were not able to offer products at a competitive price. SAL supplies 100% of clutch
requirements at Tata Motors, Volvo and Daimler in India and ~70% of Ashok Leylands requirements. The
company will remain a dominant player in the domestic MHCV clutch market owing to higher lead time to
develop clutch (~4-5 years) and its long-standing relationships with OEMs (due to quality, cost & timely
supplies factors). SAL had acquired technology from Dana Corp (R&D hub in UK and India) and has been
customizing clutch products as per the Indian markets requirements at a relatively lower price Vs other
MNC players. The company has had no labour strikes in the last 20 years. It is currently operating on two
shifts which can be ramped up to three shifts to cater to incremental demand. Additionally, the company
can add capacity with low capex, as it has sufficient land and adequate press shop capacity. SAL is also
planning to manufacture clutch related actuation systems, which will enable it to provide the high-value
clutch assembly/module. In our view, this augurs well for the companys pricing power with its customers
going forward.
259

Valuation
We believe that EPS of the company is lower due to cyclically low EBITDA margins (11% Vs 19% peak), which
will revive from here onwards. Incremental growth will come from new segments (LCVs & Tractors),
venturing into after through independent channel, revival in the domestic MHCV cycle and EBITDA margins
inching up to stable state.
Price-Earnings
EV/Sales
350
1400
300
1200
250
1000
200
800
150
600
100
400
50
200
10
15
20
Stock price
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Oct-14
Oct-13
Oct-12
Oct-11
Oct-10
Oct-09
Oct-08
Oct-07
Oct-14
Oct-13
Oct-12
Oct-11
Oct-10
Oct-09
Oct-08
Oct-07
Oct-06
Oct-06
EV
Risks
Road infrastructure improvement: to slowdown clutch replacement cycle.
Investment in group companies
Delayed recovery in the domestic MHCV cycle.
260

Company Description
Setco Automotive Ltd. (SAL), incorporated in May 1982, is the largest manufacturer of Premium Quality
Lipe brand of clutches for the commercial vehicles (CV) in India. It is a Tier-I supplier of clutches to all the
prominent Indian CV manufacturers such as Tata Motors, Bharat Benz, Ashok Leyland, Man India, Volvo
Eicher Commercial Vehicles and Asia Motor Works (AMW) among others.
The company currently has four manufacturing facilities, two of which are in India and one each in the UK
and the USA, helping it establish a global footprint. While SALs major manufacturing is done in Kalol,
Gujarat, it has a fast expanding facility at Sitarganj, Uttarakhand. The company has also set up a state-of-theart R&D Centre at Kalol, certified by the Department of Scientific Industrial & Research, Government of
India, to design, develop and validate complete clutches systems. Additionally, it has an R&D centre in the
UK. Apart from clutches for the automotive sector, the company also manufactures clutches for hydraulic
applications for the Construction Equipment industry and precision engineering components like complex &
deep drawn pressings and forgings & castings that are machined and heat treated.
Management Profile
Board of Directors
Mr. Harish K Sheth
Mr. Udit H Sheth
Mr.Vinay Shahane
Mr. Pratap Merchant
Mr. Arun Arora
Mr. Harshal J Shah
Ms. Shvetal Vakil
Mr. B L Naik
Mr. Ashok Kumar Jha
Mr. Suhasini Sathe
Mr. Naveen Manghani
261
Chairman & Managing Director

Executive Director
Associate Vice President -Finance
Independent Director
Executive Director
Company Secretary

Financials
Financial Statements -Standalone
Year to March
Net revenue
Materials costs
Gross profit
Employee costs
Manufacturing exp
SG&A
EBITDA
Depreciation & Amortization
EBIT
Other income
EBIT incl. other income
Interest expenses
Profit before tax
Provision for tax
Adjusted Profit
Extraordinary income/ (loss)
Net profit
Basic shares outstanding (crs)
EPS (Rs.)
Dividend per share (Rs.)
Dividend payout (%)
FY10
215
124
91
11
13
29
38
6
32
1
33
9
24
7
18
18
1
20.2
3.0
78%
FY11
309
177
131
19
19
35
59
7
51
1
53
10
43
10
33
(0)
33
2
18.7
4.0
74%
FY12
375
219
156
24
22
46
63
8
55
4
59
17
42
(0)
42
(2)
45
2
24.1
4.0
48%
FY13
359
205
154
27
24
55
48
9
39
9
47
17
30
2
27
(0)
27
3
10.3
2.7
99%
FY14
353
199
154
30
23
66
34
11
24
21
45
20
24
1
23
8
16
3
8.7
2.5
164%
Common size metrics as % of net revenues

Year to March
Materials costs
Employee expenses
Manufacturing exp
SG&A
Depreciation
EBITDA margins
EBIT margins
Adj profit margins
Net profit margins
FY10
57.6%
5.1%
5.9%
13.5%
2.9%
17.8%
15.0%
8.3%
8.3%
FY11
57.4%
6.1%
6.0%
11.4%
2.4%
19.1%
16.7%
10.7%
10.7%
FY12
58.4%
6.5%
5.8%
12.4%
2.2%
16.9%
14.8%
11.3%
11.9%
FY13
57.1%
7.5%
6.7%
15.4%
2.6%
13.3%
10.8%
7.6%
7.6%
FY14
56.3%
8.6%
6.6%
18.8%
3.0%
9.7%
6.7%
6.6%
4.4%
Growth ratios (%)

Year to March
Revenues
EBITDA
PBT
Adj profit
Net profit
FY10
31.6%
70.0%
71.1%
55.2%
30.2%
FY11
43.7%
53.5%
74.7%
85.3%
85.8%
FY12
21.4%
7.8%
-0.4%
28.7%
35.3%
FY13
-4.1%
-24.6%
-29.7%
-35.5%
-38.7%
FY14
-1.8%
-28.5%
-18.3%
-15.2%
-43.3%
Profitability & efficiency ratios

Year to March
ROAE (%)
ROACE (%)
ROIC (%)
Inventory day
Debtors days
Payable days
Cash conversion cycle (days)
Current ratio
Debt/Equity
FY10
32%
32%
32%
62
60
46
76
4.37
1.29
FY11
44%
39%
34%
59
78
57
79
3.52
1.07
FY12
40%
36%
39%
66
88
71
83
3.64
0.99
FY13
19%
20%
22%
87
86
60
112
4.75
0.83
FY14
13%
11%
10%
95
78
86
87
4.06
0.80
Operating ratios
Year to March
Total asset turnover
Fixed asset turnover
Equity turnover
FY10
1.57
4.23
3.83
FY11
1.84
4.40
4.08
FY12
1.72
5.00
3.55
FY13
1.26
3.87
2.44
FY14
1.06
3.07
1.97
Du pont analysis
Year to March
NP margin (%)
Total assets turnover
Leverage multiplier
ROAE (%)
FY10
8.3%
1.57
2.4
32%
FY11
10.7%
1.84
2.2
44%
FY12
11.3%
1.72
2.1
40%
FY13
7.6%
1.26
1.9
19%
FY14
6.6%
1.06
1.9
13%
Valuation parameters
Year to March
Diluted EPS (Rs.)
YoY growth (%)
Diluted PE (x)
Price/BV (x)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend yield (%)
FY10
20.2
55%
9.8
2.8
2.8
15.9
1.52%
FY11
18.7
-7%
10.6
4.0
2.0
10.4
2.02%
FY12
24.1
29%
8.2
2.8
1.6
9.6
2.02%
FY13
10.3
-57%
19.3
3.1
1.7
12.8
1.35%
FY14
8.7
-15%
22.8
2.8
1.7
17.8
1.26%
262
Balance sheet
As on 31st March
Equity capital
Reserves & surplus
Borrowings
Deffered tax
Sources of funds
Net Fixed Assets
Investments
Inventories
Sundry debtors
Cash and equivalents
Loans and advances
Total current assets
Sundry creditors and others
Provisions
Total current liabilities & provisions
Net current assets
Uses of funds
Book value per share (INR)
FY10
9
55
81
4
149
69
25
35
22
21
103
19
5
24
80
149
71.8
FY11
18
70
94
5
187
75
35
66
29
22
157
34
11
45
112
187
49.9
FY12
18
105
121
6
250
88
48
90
48
25
223
51
9
61
162
250
69.6
FY13
27
145
142
6
320
124
61
85
50
30
249
42
9
52
196
320
64.4
FY14
27
160
149
8
344
128
65
76
67
37
286
60
10
71
216
344
69.9
Free cash flow

Year to March
Net profit
Add : Depreciation
Others
Gross cash flow
Add: Changes in WC
Operating cash flow
Less: Capex
Free cash flow
FY10
18
6
10
34
-13
22
10
12
FY11
33
7
11
51
-25
26
13
13
FY12
45
8
15
68
-31
36
16
21
FY13
27
9
12
49
-32
17
13
4
FY14
16
11
7
33
22
55
14
41
Cash flow metrics

Year to March
Cash flow from operations
Cash Flow from investing activities
Casf Flow from financing activities
Capex
Dividends
FY10
22
-18
-4
-10
0
FY11
26
-21
-5
-13
-8
FY12
36
-34
3
-16
-8
FY13
17
-19
-3
-13
-8
FY14
55
-17
-68
-14
-25
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Setco Automotive LTD: Opportunity Boost CMP: 198

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