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Towards a More Modest American Strategy

David A. Shlapak
Published online: 20 Mar 2015.

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To cite this article: David A. Shlapak (2015) Towards a More Modest American Strategy, Survival: Global
Politics and Strategy, 57:2, 59-78, DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2015.1026068
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Towards a More Modest

American Strategy
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David A. Shlapak

The debate over national-security strategy in Washington is seemingly

bracketed by two similar choices: sustaining American primacy and expanding
improve the lives of the great majority of the countrys citizens.
Americas recent track record as the sole superpower is not particularly
enviable. Two largely unsuccessful wars have left the greater Middle East
more violent and less stable than it was beforehand. More than two decades
whole and free have resulted in total and humiliating failure. A confused
has created a dangerous and deepening security dilemma in the Western
asm of those who believe that American leadership is essential to sustaining
should be most worrisome.
What is needed is a national debate that challenges long-held but increasingly maladaptive assumptions about Americas role in the world and how
-

David A. Shlapak is a Senior Defense Research Analyst with the RAND Corporation. The views expressed in
this article are those of the author, and do not reflect those of RAND or the sponsors of its research.
Survival | vol. 57 no. 2 | AprilMay 2015 | pp. 5978

DOI 10.1080/00396338.2015.1026068

David A. Shlapak

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The unipolar moment is over

alone as the worlds only remaining true great power.1 Even if this status
primacy gave the country a freedom of strategic action and particularly of
military action all but unseen in modern history.

economy had not been devastated by the Second World War. America took
advantage of this deeply aberrant circumstance not only to construct a

America. The norms and structures established during the era of US economic hegemony ignited and sustained not just the revitalisation of Europe
success of which spelled the doom of American dominance itself. The relaresult of an inescapable historical process the worlds recovery from the
cataclysm of global war but also the deliberate outcome of how the United
States chose to use its unrivalled power.

Towards a More Modest American Strategy

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There is nothing to suggest that the United States time as the sole mili-

rules of the road for security interactions.

overthrew a reprehensible dictator but left behind a country in violent

ence. Afghanistan will not emerge from a decade-plus of US-led war as a

be dissuading Iran from at minimum developing the capability to pursue

in action.4 Disputes over the appropriate uses of US military muscle have

contributed to the polarisation of American political life.

David A. Shlapak

has spent on its military since the end of the Cold War has propelled the
-

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est economic growth.

that of other forms of government spending.6

spenders combined.7 While it can certainly be argued that no other nation

Strategy looks out, not in

more power to be balanced. I believe our country is the greatest force

much now as ever. And I am guided by one overwhelming conviction and

passion: This century must be an American Century.9

that it demands American global leadership. The world has always been

Towards a More Modest American Strategy

principles argument that a world led by a militarily dominant United States

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is inherently more peaceful or prosperous than some possible alternative.

nearly half of the planets population almost certainly do not see themselves as being led in any meaningful way by the United States. While the
prowess employment of which has been frustrated at least as often as it has

approach to the world.

recent leaks and the controversy surrounding Washingtons lethal use of

drones will long haunt Americas reputation.

of threats the nation confronts.10

security and prosperity.11

David A. Shlapak

12

Current planning should not necessarily be the baseline for future

strategy. There is an implicit but foundational assumption behind much

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resisted. This thinking is akin to looking outside during a thunderstorm

and concluding that everyone should always keep their umbrellas open.
-

Todays military
is the product of
an aberration
have prevented is one of reductions in size and
found deviation from the nations traditional approach to addressing its

Control Act.13

14

ible damage to the navy resulting from budget cuts. General James Amos

unacceptable level of strategic and operational risk.15

forces and the Department of Defense with those of the nation. A chain of

Towards a More Modest American Strategy

rity. Those links have not been forged. Instead and whatever the good

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intentions of those involved the Pentagon has developed a set of practices

those same force structures and budgets. It cannot be surprising that such a

terms of stability and humanitarianism may have made them worthwhile.

response to a direct threat to the safety and security of the American people.
The others were optional.
which means above all seeking to distinguish the things that one cannot
tolerate from those one would prefer not to happen. Happily free by virtue
-

David A. Shlapak

with a single terrorist weapon or one or two crude intercontinental ballistic

deterrent against this catastrophe absent reductions in global nuclear

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primary mission of US armed forces.

military must be based on the nations perceived need or desire to prosecute
shall we prepare?

Making choices

the one whose budget is most endangered by the outcomewith the objec-

this statement is a celebration of its success. The wars we worry about are
signify the abject failure of US strategy. The United States has in fact been

type it sought
only because of gross strategic miscalculations on the part of the enemy

That the future is uncertain likewise does not mean that all uncertainties
its risk the product of an events likelihood and the severity of its conse-

because the costs of deterrence failure were seen as astronomical. The art

Towards a More Modest American Strategy

drawing the line between the contingencies for which to prepare and those
to ignore with wisdom and prudence.
preparation? If the United States wishes to sustain a substantial degree

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power presents an inherent challenge.16 The ability to counter Chinese

17

18

If the security of Europe is not

potentially allowing for a sea change in its fraught relations with the countries of those troubled and unstable regions.19

tional military capabilities are anaemic. The biggest dangers Iran appears
to pose are not those associated with straightforward territorial aggression:

David A. Shlapak

coup de main
-

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the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. Helping Americas Arab friends deal with

The US will certainly want to deter Iran from using any nuclear weapons
the belief that a nuclear-armed Tehran will seek an apocalyptic showdown

The brutality of
ISIS is self-limiting

While the preferred outcome certainly remains a

-

tion of nuclear weapons would be the construction of a deterrent framework

that emphasises the need for crisis stability between Tehran and Israel and
with the entire structure necessarily backstopped by the United States.

almost always been stopped in their tracks. While the cruelty of the group

Towards a More Modest American Strategy

A more recent addition to the panoply of alleged threats is that of endan-

risk to sea transport has been posed by small bands of pirates operating

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lateral counter-piracy patrols.

commerce in the event of war with the United States. It is probably worth
20

Especially

and severity tests.

resents the most likely scenario for a large-scale land war. Commitments
for which to prepare.

appetite to undertake another such venture any time soon is only one reason
why it may not be wise to prepare for a third. Another is that there appear
such a circumstance. A third reason is that failure to achieve US objectives
21

Investing heavily to prepare for an unlikely eventuality wherein we in any

case are likely to fail despite all preparation would be foolish.

David A. Shlapak

The United States has historically engaged in numerous smaller military

peacekeeping missions to undertakings such as the invasions of Grenada

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employed for these jobs. With the return of sustained downward pres-

important tasks.

And the nations that build them do so by investing enormous resources and
hand them over to wild-eyed men.22 Countries build them out of pressing
known approaches to keeping nuclear weapons secure from unauthorised
reliability programmes. The United States has and should continue to
cooperate with others in improving the safety and security of their nuclear

would be the implosion of a country possessing nuclear weapons. The risk

of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands is a powerful motivation to

Towards a More Modest American Strategy

nation as powerful as the United States not to mention one with such a

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any adversarys leadership. While the thought that Washington is distracted

one should still leave in reserve substantial capability for

dealing with another.
It should also be recalled that the last time the United
States fought two truly major wars simultaneously against
degree of national mobilisation unparalleled either before

Nuclear use
cannot be
dismissed

or since in its history. While a repeat of this level of com-

thousand nuclear weapons at the presidents command. Their use cannot

needed for the challenges above.23

It is notable that the core non-nuclear planning scenarios described

David A. Shlapak

homeland.24

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from the sea are among the rarest and riskiest military operations.
-

The prospect
of defeat
should deter

ations in favour of more defensively oriented postures.

Defeating Chinese power projection need not involve
-

the prospect of such a defeat should serve to deter one.25

heavy brigade combat teams would likely prove far less useful than missile

Towards a More Modest American Strategy

capacity that could be provided in any number of ways.26 The United States
should also seek to help its regional friends improve their defensive capabilities in appropriate ways.

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ties grow increasingly decrepit and the likelihood of a traditional invasion

and materials before they can escape the country.

distance from the demilitarised zone. The sheer number of armed person27

the coming years are poorly understood and merit substantial further study.
A new strategy should also entail a reconsideration of Americas alliestablishment as ends in themselves. They are not. Alliances are instru28

David A. Shlapak

Senkaku/Diaoyu islands should the US assume in order to maintain its relationship with Japan? Is it actually in Americas interests to be dragged into a
war with another nuclear-armed great power over the issue of who should

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tiplied by the probability that Japan would wreck the relationship over an
American disavowal of responsibility for defending the Senkakus after

to supporting Japan in a clash with China over these essentially worthless

islets. It should have been.
*

the other branches of government. Understanding precisely what these

about what the results might be would be both premature and distracting. What is important is to recognise the need for a broad debate about
Americas purpose and intentions in the world about the actual threats

wings and strike groups.

The strategy America needs is one that is shaped by the countrys legiti-

Towards a More Modest American Strategy

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Americans. It is a more modest strategy serving a more modest country

will endanger it.

Notes
1

Constrain Future National Security

Budgets
military assets to put up a serious
against the most powerful state in the
deterrent that can survive a nuclear

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

casualty.pdf.
ing as a proportion of GDP dropped
2

defence spending been maintained at

washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/
-

dollars in Stockholm International

to-date costs of the wars are roughly
The Financial
Legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan: How
Wartime Spending Decisions Will

David A. Shlapak

stored as ones and zeros is as

Will Defense Cuts Harm the
Washington Post,
www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/
wonkblog/post/research-deskwhat-does-defense-spending-

the global commons as Somali piracy

is from unrestricted U-boat warfare.
the worlds second-oldest profession
translated into a new medium.
While the armed forces may have
legitimate roles in addressing piracy

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supremacy.
13
8

defense.gov/news/defense_strategic_
guidance.pdf.
14

Time

10

15

another. Coming at it from the other

-

worse
the US military could become while
tory. Who is in second place?
11

12

16

poses the goal of protecting our allies

and interests from Chinese aggres-

Cyber crime breaking into

including trade secrets or money

the historical American approach

to regional security than vague and

Towards a More Modest American Strategy

threats to be managed rather than

resolved through protracted military

17

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war against China in Asia is a bad

making a land war against China

in Asia a totally optional bad idea.

22

Vietnam and Myanmar all rank

world. While the US might be called
upon to provide air and maritime supdomains would be broadly similar to
those needed to deal with any major

should India build its own. See Patrick

Guardian
23

Some might seek to characterise

this as similar to what is called a

away from land.

18

phrasing implies an acceptance of

and Italy. Canada is not far behind.
analysis largely rejects as a basis for
planning.

24
19

the ability to occupy a hostile country

25

much of the heavy lifting.

We should also seek to make our

20

21

their own forward defence.

David A. Shlapak

26

While feasible missile defences will

likely be of limited value against an arse-

27

they could prove very useful against

28

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whose inventories will be smaller and

consist of less advanced weapons.

To paraphrase Lord Palmerstons

permanent friends and no permanent