MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIU 31-OCT-2016 116

M

114

113

112

111

110

109

108

106

30-NOV-2016 347

342

337

336

333

331

328

324

319

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3425

3348

3271

3241

3194

3164

3117

3040

2963

GOLD

05-DEC-2016 32594 32024 31454 31098 30884 30528 30314 29744

29174

LEAD

31-OCT-2016 158

152

146

144

140

138

134

128

122

NATURAL 26-OCT-2015 213

GAS

207

201

198

195

192

189

184

178

747

725

714

703

692

681

659

637

COPPER

EXPIRY

NICKEL

31-OCT-2016 769

SILVER

05-DEC-2016 49896 48623 47350 46538 46077 45265 44804 43531

ZINC

31-OCT-2016 167

164

161

159

158

156

155

152

42258
149

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

R4

R3

R2

ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2016

122

118

114

113

110

109

106

102

98

COPPER

30-NOV-2016

353

346

339

336

332

329

325

318

311

CRUDE OIL

19-OCT-2016

3973

3693

3413

3312

3133

3032

2853

2573

2293

GOLD

05-DEC-2016 32961 32281 31601 31171 30921 30491 30241 29561

28881

LEAD

31-OCT-2016

185

169

153

147

137

131

121

105

89

NATURALGA 26-OCT-2015
S
31-OCT-2016
NICKEL

233

221

209

202

197

190

185

173

161

802

770

738

720

706

688

674

642

610

SILVER
ZINC

EXPIRY

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

05-DEC-2016 50915 49260 47605 46665 45950 45010 44295 42640

31-OCT2016

183

174

165

161

156

152

147

138

Monday, 3 October 2016

S4

40985
129

WEEKLY MCX CALL

BUY CRUDEOIL OCT ABOVE 3213 TGT 3291 SL 3139
BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31153 TGT 31456 SL 30844
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31402 TGT 31709 SL 31098 - NOT EXECUTED
FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP
67

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016 67.75 67.55 67.35 67.15

66.80 66.60 66.40

66.20

EURINR

26-OCT2016 75.95 75.75 75.55 75.35 75.15 74.95 74.75 74.55

74.30

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

86.80 86.60

86.40

JPYINR

26-OCT2016 67.10 66.90 66.70 66.50 66.30 66.10 65.90 65.70

65.50

88 87.80 87.60 87.40 87.20

87

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016 68.10 67.80 67.50 67.20

67

66.70 66.40 66.10

65.80

EURINR

26-OCT2016 76.20 75.95 75.65 75.35

75

74.70 74.40 74.10

73.80

GBPINR

26-OCT2016 88.30

87.70 87.40 87.10 86.80 86.50 86.20

85.90

JPYINR

26-OCT2016 67.50 67.20 66.90 66.60 66.30

88

66

65.70 65.40

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

SELL JPYINR OCT BELOW 65.70 TGT 65 SL 66.40
SELL USDINR OCT BELOW 75.90 TGT 75.20 SL 76.50

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY EURINR OCT ABOVE 75.63 TGT 76.26 SL 74.98 - NOT EXECUTED
SELL JPYINR OCT BELOW 66.10 TGT 65.40 SL 66.80 - MADE LOW OF 65.72

65.10

 NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-NOV-2016

667

663 659 657

655

653

651

647

643

SYBEANIDR

18-NOV-2016

3395 3337 3279 3257 3221

3199

3163

3105

3047

RMSEED

18-NOV-2016

4748 4683 4618 4595 4553

4530

4488

4423

4358

JEERAUNJHA

18-NOV-2016 17665 1754 1741 1735 17290 17230

0
5
5

17165 17040

16915

GUARSEED10

18-NOV-2016

3786 3708 3630 3594 3552

3516

3474

3396

3318

TMC

18-NOV-2016

7490 7394 7298 7242 7202

7146

7106

7010

6914

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

696

683

670

662

657

649

644

631

618

SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3472 3385 3298 3267 3211

3180

3124

3037

2950

18-NOV-2016 5295 5066 4837 4704 4608

4475

4379

4150

3921

JEERAUNJH 18-NOV-2016 18765 18285 1780 17550 17325 17070 16845 16365
5
A

15885

GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 4100 3926 3752 3655 3578

3481

3404

3230

3056

18-NOV-2016 8289 7895 7501 7343 7101

6949

6713

6319

5925

DATE
SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016

RMSEED

TMC

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY JEERA NOV ABOVE 17670 TGT 18093 SL 17273
BUY GUARSEED NOV ABOVE 3582 TGT 3659 SL 3508
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY JEERA OCT ABOVE 17600 TGT 18000 SL 17200 - NOT EXECUTED

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

BULLION
Gold pared early gains on Thursday as the U.S. dollar recovered and global stocks
rallied after oil producers agreed to curb output. The Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries on Wednesday agreed modest oil output cuts in the first such deal
since 2008, with the group's leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran
amid mounting pressure from low crude prices. shares pulled regional stock markets
higher on Thursday. Once again struggled to find direction in low volumes, with
regional names happy to sit on the sidelines as gold threatens a test of the 100-day
moving average around $ 1,310," "With some time still to pass until the currently
expected U.S. Federal reserve rate rise in December, gold looks likely to hold rangebound over the short term." Division between Federal Reserve policy makers on when
to raise U.S. interest rates has sapped investor enthusiasm for trading on comments by
officials from the central bank. gold and dollar markets are currently without very
strong direction. The mixed views from U.S. Fed officials have weakened their
credibility and the market has stopped buying their comments," Spot gold XAU= was
steady at $1,320.62 an ounce by 0706 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were up nearly
0.1 percent at $1,324.30 an ounce.
Gold prices hit a one-week low on Wednesday, as the dollar firmed and investors
assessed Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before a Congressional
committee. The Federal Reserve is considering changing the annual stress tests it gives
to U.S. banks to see if they can withstand a massive financial crisis, Yellen said. The
Fed's chair did not comment on the outlook for the economy or monetary policy in her
prepared remarks. gold XAU= fell 0.4 percent to $1,322.95 an ounce by 1409 GMT. It
fell nearly one percent on Tuesday, its biggest single-day loss in one month on a higher
appetite for risk. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 eased 0.3 percent to $1,326.20 an ounce.
Gold's next technical support level stands at $ 1,320, while the closest resistance is $
1,350, MKS SA head of trading Afshin Nabavi said. Minneapolis Fed President Neel
Kashkari said the central bank could keep rates low for a while as inflation remains
weak. markets will also monitor Cleveland Fed President Mester and Kansas City Fed
President George's speeches on the economy and monetary policy at separate events. "It
is probably going to be a case of watching out for these Fed officials' comments," We
also have Friday's U.S. inflation reading, which is the bank's preferred measure of
inflation and if that shows tick up towards the 2 percent target, it would give more

confidence to markets that the Fed will move to raise rates in December." Butler added
that traders were also watching a meeting of oil producers in Algiers this week to see if
an agreement could be reached to ease a global glut of crude. Gold is often seen as a
hedge against oil-led inflation. The dollar .DXY was up 0.1 percent against a basket of
six major currencies, making gold more expensive for foreign currency holders.
Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, fell 0.22 percent to 949.14 tonnes on Tuesday.
Gold edged up on Thursday as the US dollar weakened in the wake of an oil producer
agreement to curb output. Division between Federal Reserve policymakers on when to
raise US interest rates has sapped investor enthusiasm for trading on comments by
officials from the central bank. "The gold and dollar markets are currently without very
strong direction. The mixed views from US Fed officials have weakened their
credibility and the market has stopped buying on their comments," said Jiang Shu, chief
analyst at Shandong Gold Group. "For now, we can see gold move in the band of $1,300
to $1,350." Spot gold had risen 0.3 per cent to $ 1,325 an ounce by 0345 GMT. US gold
futures were up 0.4 per cent at $ 1,328.60 an ounce. The Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries on Wednesday agreed modest oil output cuts in the first such deal
since 2008, with the group's leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran
amid mounting pressure from low crude prices. Oil futures extended gains on Thursday
after rising nearly 6 percent the day before on the surprise OPEC move. "Further oil
price rallies may feed more convincingly into the gold market, especially if other nonoil commodities also rally, and the broader commodity indices, such as the GSCI, rise,"
The gold market will absorb another raft of US., European and Japanese economic data
on Thursday, he said. US GDP numbers are due, as well as European Union business
confidence data."We think prices may stay on the defensive in the absence of new
developments, unless oil prices continue to rise enough to lend support to bullion." The
dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell as much
as 0.1 per cent to 95.338 Silver was up 0.4 percent at $19.24 an ounce. Platinum and
palladium rose over 1 per cent to $1,033.99 and $717 respectively. Palladium earlier
touched its highest in over seven weeks at $721.30.
Gold prices inched up during Europe's session on Thursday, but remained near a oneweek low as market players looked ahead to more U.S. economic data for clues on the
likelihood of a December rate hike. Comments from a barrage of Federal Reserve
officials, including the Fed chair, later in the session will also be in focus. Gold for
December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange

tacked on $ 1.60, or 0.12%, to $ 1,325.30 a troy ounce by 4:20AM ET. On Wednesday,

prices fell to $ 1,321.10, a level not seen since September 21. Data due on Thursday
includes weekly jobless claims, the final look at second-quarter GDP and the trade
deficit, all at 8:30 AM ET. Pending home sales are reported at 10:00AM ET. A handful
of Fed policymakers are also due to make public appearances on Thursday that may
offer insight into how divided they are about raising rates. Philadelphia Fed President
Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, Fed Governor Jerome Powell,
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Kansas City Fed President Esther George
are all scheduled to speak during the day.

ENERGY
Oil futures retreated on Thursday as the market grew more sceptical on how OPEC
would implement a plan to curb oil output, a day after the group agreed to limit
production. "Further oil price rallies may feed more convincingly into the gold market,
especially if other non-oil commodities also rally, and the broader commodity indices
rise," HSBC analyst James Steel said in a note. Goldman Sachs said the deal reached by
OPEC crude producers on Wednesday to curb output should add $ 7 to $ 10 to oil prices
in the first half of next year. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries agreed on Wednesday to modest oil output cuts in the first such deal since
2008, with group leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran amid
mounting pressure from low oil prices. "Strict implementation of today's deal in 2017
would represent 480,000 to 980,000 barrels per day less output," Goldman analysts said
in a note dated Wednesday. "Longer term, we remain sceptical on the implementation of
the proposed quotas, if ratified," the analysts said. Still, the bank reiterated its year-end
and 2017 oil price forecasts, given the uncertainty of the OPEC proposal. Goldman kept
its end-2016 forecast for US West Texas Intermediate crude at $ 43 per barrel and its
2017 forecast at $ 53 per barrel. WTI was trading around $ 47 a barrel, after gaining
more than five per cent on Wednesday on OPEC's planned output cut. "If this proposed
cut is strictly enforced and supports prices, we would expect it to prove self-defeating
medium term with a large drilling response around the world,"
WTI oil prices rose by 8.5 percent last week to close at $48.2 per barrel with Brent
nearing $50 a barrel on optimism over OPEC's first planned output cut in eight years,
although gains were limited as some analysts doubted the reduction would be enough to
make a substantial dent in
the global crude glut. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on

Wednesday to cut output to 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day from around 33.5 million
bpd, estimated by Reuters to be the output level in August. OPEC said other details will
be known at its policy meeting in November, leaving unanswered when the agreement
will come into effect, what new quotas for member countries will be and for what
periods, and how compliance will be verified. Key members such as Saudi Arabia and
Iran resisted, becoming more protective of individual market share even though the rout
hurt the group's oil-dependent economies. The deal in Algiers follows failed talks in
Qatar in April for a production freeze. Key OPEC member Iran, the fourth largest crude
exporter which is still trying to recapture output before Western sanctions in 2012. On
the MCX, oil prices rose by 8 percent to close at Rs.3212 per barrel.
BASE METAL
LME Copper prices rose 0.2 percent last week to $4865/tonne as the 14-member OPEC
agreed to cut production for the first time since 2008, proposing new production levels
at 32.5 million to 33 millionbarrels a day, a 700,000 drop on August production levels at
33.24 million barrels a day. Besides, comments from Chilean President Michelle
Bachelet said the country's budgeted spending will rise 2.7 percent in 2017 compared
with this year, one of the lowest rates of growth since the 1990s, as a sluggish economy
has crimped income. Also, Industrial profit growth in China surged 19.5 percent to
534.8 billion Yuan in August to the highest level since 2013 helped by rising sales,
higher prices and lower costs, shown recent signs of stabilization. However, stock
additions at LMEs South East Asian warehouses of Gwangyang, Klang and Busan
restricted sharp upside. MCX copper prices traded higher by 0.2 percent to close at
Rs.328.6 per kg on Friday.
The Engineering Export Promotion Council of India has opposed extension of minimum
import price on steel as it said the non-tariff barrier on crucial inputs was resulting in an
inversion of duty with imports of finished goods increasing at a faster pace than the raw
material. Any inversion in duty at this stage would be a big setback to Make in India
where the entire focus is on taking the country several notches up on the value and
technology chain so that we become a global factory, said EEPC India Chairman T S
Bhasin. Imports for finished goods in the form of products of steel and iron increased at
up to 51 per cent between June and August this year, EEPC India said in a statement.
On the other hand, imports for the raw material by way of steel and iron used purely for
raw material dropped between June and August. On August 4, Directorate General of
Foreign Trade extended the minimum import price on 66 steel products till October 4.
The MIP is in the range of $341-$752 per tonne. The government had earlier levied MIP

on 173 steel products ranging from $341 to $752 per tonne on February 5, which was
valid for six months. While the measure has led to curtailment of cheaper imports to
some extent, it has also increased idling capacities of small steel manufacturers and
downstream industry, EEPC said.
Domestic steel industry remains engaged in mulling the quantum of October price hike,
demand for the commodity is expected to catch pace in coming months, thanks to a rise
in construction activity.Second half of this year has seen demand rising for steel as
government projects are likely to take-off, said Sanak Mishra, secretary general at
Indian Steel Association . Domestic demand for steel is expected to grow 5.3 per cent in
the current fiscal to 85.8 million tonne as consumption from construction and capital
goods is seen higher, supported by higher infrastructure spending, ISA has said in its
recent report. In addition, a pick-up in rural income due to good monsoon and
government initiatives is expected to help in creating sustainable demand in the region.
Railways and intermediate sectors are also expected to witness growth. Government
initiatives by way of increments to its employees and public sector staff is likely to
boost automotive and consumer durables demand in the current financial year, said ISA
in its short-term domestic steel demand outlook.The association sees consistent rise in
domestic demand for the next eight quarters, taking 2017-18 demand to 90.6 million
tonne, achieving a growth of 5.6 per cent from previous year.
Lead prices drifted lower by 0.24 per cent to Rs. 126.40 per kg in futures trade today as
traders trimmed their positions amid sluggish demand from battery-makers in the spot
market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in September declined by
30 paise or 0.24 per cent to Rs 126.40 per kg in business turnover of 370 lots. Likewise,
the metal for delivery in October contracts traded lower by a similar margin to Rs
127.05 per kg in 3 lots. Market analysts said offloading of positions by participants
owing to slackened demand from battery-makers in the spot market led to decline in
lead prices at futures trade.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

Crop prices are beginning to fall as the bumper harvest reaches the market. Soybean
prices are falling steadily, down 10-12% from last year.The government has estimated
soybean output to rise 50% this year. In the Indore market, a major hub for soybean,
farmers were getting Rs 3000 a quintal, which at factory the price was Rs 3200 a

quintal. Overall with production looking good, prices could further come down, said
Anand Garg of Anand Trading Company, Indore. Similarly, Davish Jain, chairman of
the Soybean Processors Association of India said that the crop was looking good and
arrivals were expected to jump in the next fortnight ahead of Diwali, leading to a further
slump in prices. Jain who has just come back from a visit of Thailand, Philippines,
Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan, said the export opportunity looked promising this year.
As per industry estimates, India can export 3-4 million tonnes of soymeal this year
compared to just 0.4 million tonnes last year.
One of the largest traders in the sugar market said world sugar output in the next crop
season will trail demand by more than previously forecast as adverse growing
conditions threaten yields in Brazil and India, the biggest growers. The deficit in the
2016-17 season, which starts October 1 in most countries, will be 4 million metric tons,
Paris-based Sucden & Denrees said Thursday, up from a July projection of 3 million.
Indias crop will drop by about 2 million tons to 23.2 million, creating a domestic
shortfall of 2.7 million that may spur the country to import, Sucden said in a report.
While Brazils Center-South region could produce a record 35.4 million tons, according
to the trader, some forecasters point to a rainy October curbing the sucrose content of
the sugar-cane. That could collapse yields, raising concern about how much sugar-cane
is available for processing, anddelay the start of next years harvest. Harsh weather in
the countrys northeastern sections means more downside may be on the horizon
there. As always, weather conditions going forward can influence sugar production
and can therefore bring some volatility, Sucden said. Also, while funds posted a new
record long recently and seem to be willing to persist on the long side, it cannot be ruled
out that a macro event might, at some point, trigger a sell-off.
Subdued export demand, rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and expected good crop from
Madhya Pradesh have pulled down prices of chilli, which had touched a new peak this
year. The prices of the largest exported spice from India have dropped by 10% to 15%
and the falling trend may continue in the coming weeks. The chilli prices are currently
hovering in the range of Rs 110 to Rs 125 per kg. The high prices in the last few
months had impacted exports. Good harvest in China also led to sluggish purchase by
the country. Now the export demand has thinned considerably, said AP Murugan,
director of Paprika Oleos , a major exporter. At present, chilli exports are limited to Sri
Lanka and Bangladesh in small quantities. The weak export trend along with anticipated
good crop from Madhya Pradesh could trigger a downward push in the prices, according
to the traders. Last year, Madhya Pradeshs chilli crop fell short because of pest
problems. Indian chilli exports had touched close to Rs 4,000 crore in 2015-16, a record.

Exactly a year after strengthening regulation of the 13-year-old commodity derivatives

market, the Securities and Exchange Board of India has taken the first steps towards its
growth by allowing exchanges like MCX and NCDEX to launch options in
commodities. Also, it has expanded the list of notified commodities that exchanges can
launch by adding to it eggs, diamonds, skimmed milk powder, tea, cocoa, pig iron,
biofuels and brass. ET had reported in its edition of September 27 that Sebi would
approve the launch of the options this week. On July 1, this paper was the first to report
that the regulator was considering a diamond contract. Sebi will spell out the details of
the type of options and the products on which they can be launched in due course. An
advisory committee constituted by Sebi after erstwhile commodity regulator FMC was
merged with it on September 29 last year had recommended launch of gold and refined
soya oil options initially.
The domestic sugar prices have remained firm and increased from around Rs.
31,500/MT in March 2016 to Rs. 36,000/MT in August 2016 and continue to hover
around the same price in September 2016, supported by an expected decline in the sugar
production during sugar year 2017 , actual decline in the domestic sugar stocks during
SY2016, and also a global sugar deficit scenario, which drove up international sugar
prices. Further, the domestic sugar prices are likely to remain firm in the next three to
four quarters, given the tight domestic situation. Mr. Sabyasachi Majumdar, Senior
Vice-President, ICRA, said: While the Government implemented stock holding limits
in September 2016, this hasnt resulted in any significant impact on domestic sugar
prices. Sugar prices are expected to remain firm in the near term in spite of this, given
the tight stock position. However, imposition of export duty and stock holding limit
measures may dampen prospects of a further significant price rise. In the next 3-4
quarters, any further increase from the current levels would depend upon the following
factors: expectations of sugar production during SY2017, sugar mills own actions on
supplies depending upon their inventory-holding capacity, and the Government action
on price control measures.
Crop prices are beginning to fall as the bumper harvest reaches the market. Soybean
prices are falling steadily, down 10-12% from last year.The government has estimated
soybean output to rise 50% this year. In the Indore market, a major hub for soybean,
farmers were getting Rs 3000 a quintal, which at factory the price was Rs 3200 a
quintal. Overall with production looking good, prices could further come down, said
Anand Garg of Anand Trading Company, Indore. Similarly, Davish Jain, chairman of
the Soybean Processors Association of India said that the crop was looking good and

arrivals were expected to jump in the next fortnight ahead of Diwali, leading to a further
slump in prices. Jain who has just come back from a visit of Thailand, Philippines,
Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan, said the export opportunity looked promising this year.
As per industry estimates, India can export 3-4 million tonnes of soymeal this year
compared to just 0.4 million tonnes last year.

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