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Using Fuzzy Logic to quantify climate change

impacts on spawner-recruitment relationships
for fish from the North-Eastern Pacific Ocean
Chapter January 2007

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In: Advanced Methods for Decision Making...

Editors: J. Kropp and J. Scheffran, pp. 197209

ISBN 978-1-60021-427-1
c 2007 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

Chapter 8

U SING F UZZY L OGIC TO Q UANTIFY C LIMATE

C HANGE I MPACTS ON S PAWNERR ECRUITMENT
R ELATIONSHIPS FOR F ISH FROM THE
N ORTHE ASTERN PACIFIC O CEAN
Din G. Chen and James R. Irvine

8.1. Introduction
Major changes to marine ecosystems resulting from global climate variation pose enormous challenges to those responsible for the assessment and management of fishery resources. The successful implementation of policies that will enable sustainable fisheries,
especially during periods of climate change, generally requires a good understanding of
relationships between numbers of spawners and subsequent recruitment. Nontraditional
analytical techniques, including artificial intelligence (A I ) methodologies, offer significant
advantages over traditional techniques in the analyses of these relationships, and hence
can improve our understanding of how climate change may affect fish abundance. In this
Chapter we apply an A I method, fuzzy logic, to various sets of fish spawnerrecruitment
timeseries data (further applications of the fuzzy concept can be found in Chapter 9). Using fuzzy logic, we incorporate environmental changes in our analysis and thereby model
the uncertain and poorly defined impacts of environmental regimes. Different from traditional approaches, fuzzy logic utilizes a continuous membership function that provides us
with a rational basis to categorize spawnerrecruitment data. We apply this approach to
various populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), herring (Clupea harengus pallasi), and halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) from the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Fuzzy
logic models consistently outperformed traditional approaches as measured by several diagnostic criteria. Because fuzzy logic models address uncertainty better than traditional
approaches, they have the potential to improve our ability to understand factors influencing
spawnerrecruitment relationships, and thereby manage fisheries more effectively.
There is an extensive and developing literature dealing with the consequences of cli-

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D.G. Chen and J.R. Irvine

mate change on fish and fisheries. However, most authors rely on traditional statistical
approaches when evaluating climate impacts. Nontraditional approaches, including artificial intelligence (A I ) methodologies, sometimes offer significant advantages and thereby
can help us improve our understanding of relationships between climate changes and fish
abundance (cf. Chapter 3 for further methods applied in the field of fisheries).
Fuzzy logic is one A I approach that is wellsuited to the types of analyses undertaken by
many researchers in the fields of global change and sustainability science. While fuzzy set
theory, first described by Zadeh (1965) has revolutionized computer technology (McNeil
and Freiberger 1993), it remains underutilized in environmental and social fields, especially in areas other than the Orient. By mathematically representing uncertainty, fuzzy
logic formalisms are an approach for dealing with the imprecision intrinsic to many environmental and social problems. Using fuzzy logic models, environmental variables such
as temperature and salinity can be assigned a degree of membership to a particular regime
(e.g. warm or cold, salty or not salty, positive or negative).
Our goal is to demonstrate the utility of fuzzy logic models in the evaluation of climate
change. We will draw largely from our own work on fish populations from the northeast
Pacific Ocean. We hope that by demonstrating some of the benefits of fuzzy logic compared
to traditional statistical models, we will convince more scientists to consider applying fuzzy
logic and other A I techniques when they investigate global change. We shall restrict our
examples to analyses of relationships between spawning stock and recruitment, the most
important and generally most difficult problem in the biological assessment of fisheries
(Hilborn and Walters 1992).

8.2. Ricker StockRecruitment Model

Various models are available to examine relationships between spawners and recruitment
(Quinn II and Deriso 1999), including the wellknown Ricker stockrecruitment (S R )
model (Ricker 1975):
Rt = St exp (a bSt + t ) ,

(8.1)

where St is spawner abundance or biomass in year t, and Rt is the resulting recruitment. The
parameters a and b have biological interpretations; a measures productivity and b measures


density dependence. The error t is assumed to be normally distributed as N 0, 2 . Ricker
curves typically rise from the origin to a maximum, then bend over and decline as spawning
levels increase, indicating reduced recruitment at higher spawner abundance. The greater
the a parameter, the steeper the slope near the origin and the larger the b parameter, the
more quickly density independence takes effect. If b is zero, model (8.1) is the socalled
densityindependent S R model, which indicates constant survival. This Ricker model (Eq.
(8.1)) can be extended to incorporate environmental variables (Hilborn and Walters 1992;
Chen and Ware 1999; Chen and Irvine 2001) producing the Ricker climatic model:
Rt = St exp (a bSt + E Vt + t ) ,

(8.2)

Fuzzy Logic to Assess Climate Change and Spawner Recruitment Relations

199

where E Vt is a vector of environmental variables. After log transformation, models (8.1)

and (8.2) become:
 
Rt
yt = log
= a bSt + t
(8.3)
St
 
Rt
yt = log
= a bSt + E Vt + t
(8.4)
St

We can estimate the model parameters a, b and by multiple linear regression and test the
significance of b in model (8.3) as well as the significance of incorporating environmental
variables in model (8.4). If is not statistically significant, we conclude the environmental
variable (E V) has no significance on the Ricker model (8.3).

8.3. Crisp Regime StockRecruitment Model

Stock recruitment analysis typically assumes there is no temporal pattern in the relationship
between stock and recruitment. This is often not a valid assumption since many researchers
have demonstrated a significant effect of climate on survival (e.g. McGinn 2002). When
a rapid change in fish abundance and climate occurs, this is referred to as a regime shift
(Beamish and Noakes 2002).
Since environmental conditions affect S R relationships (Koslow et al. 1986), fishery
scientists would like to know if S R relationships vary in different environmental regimes.
More specifically, do the parameters a and b differ among regimes? Although the Ricker
climatic model (8.2) or (8.4) is an improvement over the Ricker model (8.1) or (8.3) since
it incorporates E V, the climatic model does not allow us to test for regime impacts, and
therefore does not allow us to answer this question.
To illustrate how to test whether a and b vary among regimes, we start with a simple
example and assume that there are only two regimes, 1 and 2, which could correspond to
regimes that are warm and cold, positive and negative, salty and less salty, windy and less
windy etc. We wish to determine whether S R relationships differ between regimes 1 and 2:

yt = a1 b1 St in regime 1
(8.5)
yt = a2 b2 St in regime 2
where a1 and a2 measure fish stock reproductive performance at low stock sizes, and b1
and b2 represent densitydependence in prerecruitment survival rates during regimes 1
and 2 respectively. If there is no difference between a1 and a2 , or b1 and b2 , then the S R
relationship does not appear to vary between regimes, which means that the environmental
effect is not significant. If on the other hand there is a difference, we wish to evaluate the
significance of E V.
Suppose that the E V is the sea surface temperature (S ST ). A traditional approach for
fishery researchers might be to partition the S R data based on the mean longterm S ST
using a crisp classification. When S ST is above average (i.e. E V > 0.5), the regime 1 is
warm (Fig. 8.1a, the dashed line) and the S R data associated with these warm years
are assigned to this warm regime 1. Otherwise, the S R data are assigned to the cold
regime 2 (Fig. 8.1b, the dashed line). The Ricker model (8.3) could then be fitted to the two
categories of S R data to estimate the associated S R parameters (e.g. Fig. 8.2).

200

D.G. Chen and J.R. Irvine

Membership value

1.0
(a) Regime 1

(b) Regime 2

0.5

0.5
EV (e.g. SST or PDO)

1.0 0

0.5
EV (e.g. SST or PDO)

1.0

Figure 8.1. Illustration of fuzzy membership function (F MF) for the environmental variable
(E V) corresponding to fuzzy sets in two regimes with the E V rescaled between 0 and 1.
Assuming that regimes 1 and 2 correspond to warm and cold, the dashed lines in (a)
and (b) illustrate the traditional crisp thinking that it is warm if S ST is greater than the
time series average (E V > 0.5) and it is cold otherwise. The solid line in (a) and (b)
illustrate the fuzzy membership function.
However, this approach has limitations, for instance it is easy to misclassify those years
close to the longterm time series mean. As well, potentially useful information may be
ignored since environmental information is not used in model fitting (the S R data from the
warm years are not used in fitting the S R model to the data from cool years and vice
versa).
In general, categorical classification approaches, such the dichotomous warm vs.
cool, positive vs. negative, and good vs. bad impose subjective breakpoints
on a continuously varying factor. Fuzzy logic allows us to implement a nondichotomous,
multivalued approach that can lead to improved S R analysis. Fuzzy reasoning is particularly wellsuited to investigating whether stock productivity or density dependent patterns
differ among regimes (Mackinson et al. 1999; Chen et al. 2000; Chen 2001).

8.4. Fuzzy Logic StockRecruitment Model

Using fuzzy ifthen rules, a fuzzy logic model mimics the qualitative aspects of human
intelligence without requiring precise quantitative analyses. Fuzzy modeling, first explored
systematically by Takagi and Sugeno (1983), has found numerous practical applications
(Kandel 1992). The approach offers substantial advantages and improvements compared
to methods traditionally used to analyze ecological data (Lek et al. 1995; Mackinson et al.
1999; Chen 2002).
A fuzzy logic model (fuzzy inference system or fuzzy controller) is composed of (i) the
knowledge base, which contains a number of fuzzy ifthen rules and a database to define the
membership functions of the fuzzy sets used in the fuzzy rules, and (ii) the fuzzy reasoning
or decision making unit that performs the inference operations based on the rules.
Two operations are performed in fuzzy logic modeling. First, a fuzzification operation
compares the input variables with the membership functions (Fig. 8.1) on the premise part
of the ifthen rules to obtain the membership values of each linguistic fuzzy set. These

Fuzzy Logic to Assess Climate Change and Spawner Recruitment Relations

201

Figure 8.2. Stockrecruitment data for 5 populations of Pacific salmon, Pacific herring and
Pacific halibut. Solid lines and s are Ricker S R model fits and data correspond to the cold
S ST or negative P DO years and dashed lines and s correspond to the warm S ST or
positive P DO years. Actual numbers of salmon spawners and recruits are 1,000 times
numbers given.
membership values from the premise part are combined through a min operator to determine the firing strength (weight) of each rule, in order to generate a qualified consequent
(either fuzzy or crisp) of each rule depending on this firing strength. Second, the qualified
consequents are aggregated to produce a crisp output as the defuzzification operation.
Several types of fuzzy reasoning have been proposed (Lee 1990) that depend on the
types of fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy ifthen rules employed. Takagi and Sugeno (1983)
proposed the most commonly used model. In this model, the output of each rule is a linear
combination of input variables plus a constant term, with the final model output being the
weighted average of each rules output. We will illustrate the process by constructing a
fuzzy logic model for fish stock recruitment. Only E V will be input in the fuzzification
process where it will be transformed from crisp inputs into two fuzzy sets, corresponding
to two separate regimes.

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D.G. Chen and J.R. Irvine

8.4.1. Fuzzy Knowledge Base

In general form the two fuzzy rules used in this knowledge base, according to the choice of
fuzzification of E V as two fuzzy sets, are:
 
Rt
Rule 1: If E Vt is in regime 1, then yt = log
= a1 b1 St
(8.6)
St
 
Rt
= a2 b2 St
(8.7)
Rule 2: If E Vt is in regime 2, then yt = log
St
where a1 , a2 , b1 and b2 are S R parameters to be estimated.
It can be seen from (8.6) and (8.7) that if there is no significant difference in S R relationships between regimes 1 and 2, the fuzzy model in (8.6) and (8.7) can be combined and
simplified into one model as described in (8.3). In this case, the fuzzy logic model is an
extension of the traditional Ricker S R model.
With the ifthen rules defined in (8.6) and (8.7), the membership function for the two
fuzzy sets in the premise ifpart is illustrated in Fig. 8.1 (the solid line). The consequent
parts (i.e. the thenclause) of the two fuzzy rules are defined by the traditional Ricker S R
relationship, which is the fuzzy model proposed by Takagi and Sugeno (1983).

8.4.2. The Fuzzy Reasoning

For any observed E Vt and corresponding St at year t, the fuzzy reasoning process involves
the following steps:
Step 1: Compare the E V with the F MF (fuzzy membership function) (Fig. 8.1, solid
line) to obtain the membership values of each fuzzy set (i.e. fuzzification):
Rule 1: wt1 = F MF regime 1 (E V)

(8.8)

Rule 2: wt2 = F MFregime 2 (E V) ;

(8.9)

Step 2: Generate the consequent of each rule depending on the membership values. For
each Rule i, the output from the consequent part is calculated by the function
defined in (8.6) and (8.7) as:
yt1 = a1 b1 St (for regime 1)

(8.10)

yt2 = a2 b2 St (for regime 2)

(8.11)

Step 3: The final output of the fuzzy logic model is inferred from the two rules by a
defuzzification process to compute the weighted average as:
yt =

wt1 yt1 + wt2 yt2

= wt1 yt1 + wt2 yt2
wt1 + wt2

since wt1 + wt2 = 1 from (8.8) and (8.9).

(8.12)

Fuzzy Logic to Assess Climate Change and Spawner Recruitment Relations

203

8.4.3. Parameter Estimation

The S R parameters a1 , a2 , b1 and b2 are estimated by minimizing the mean squared error
(M SE):

M SE (a1 , a2 , b1 , b2 ) =

1 n
(yt yt )2
n t=1

1 n
[yt (wt1 yt1 + wt2 yt2 )]2
n t=1

1 n
[yt wt1 (a1 b1St ) wt2 (a2 b2St )]2
n t=1

(8.13)

(8.14)

These parameters are estimated by minimizing (8.14), which is equivalent to the least
square estimation (L SE):
Y = XB
(8.15)
where Y = 
(y1 ,. . . , yn ) is an n 1 vector of observed fish stock productivity indices defined
as yt = log RStt , B = (a1 , b1 , a2 , b2 ) is a 4 1 parameter vector, and

w11 w11 S1 w12 w12 S1

..
..
..
X = ...
.
.
.
wn1 wn1 Sn wn2 wn2 Sn

is an n 4 matrix constituted by observed fish spawner biomass and the E V index. The
parameter vector can be estimated by:

1
X Y.
B = X X

8.5. Data Analyses and Model Comparison

8.5.1. Data Description
To illustrate our approach, we chose S R data sets that varied in duration and contrast. We
wanted our data sets to encompass a variety of situations and did not want to only present
data that showed the utility of the fuzzy logic approach. Data were from one stock for each
of 5 species of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), plus Pacific herring (Clupea harengus
pallasi) and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) (Tab. 8.1 and Fig. 8.2).
To represent environmental variables for the salmon stocks, we computed sea surface
temperature anomalies (S STA) from the lighthouse station nearest to individual salmon
streams (http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/sci/Pages/lighthouse data.htm). We
used the mean of AprilJuly measurements during the year salmon went to sea since Mueter
et al. (2002) found that measurements during this period were associated with the survival
of BC pink, sockeye, and northern chum salmon. For herring, we used the annual mean
S ST (Chen and Ware 1999), and for halibut, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (P DO )
(Mantua et al. 1997; Chen 2001).

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D.G. Chen and J.R. Irvine

Table 8.1. Summary statistics for model 1 (Ricker model (8.3)), Model 2 (Ricker
climatic model (8.4)), model 3 (crisp regime S R model in Section 8.3.), and model 4
(fuzzy logic model in Section 8.4.). The duration of each time series in years is given
in parentheses. Populations included in the analysis are West coast Vancouver Island
chinook salmon, Fraser River chum salmon, Babine River (Skeena watershed) coho
salmon, Fraser River pink salmon, Fraser River sockeye salmon, West coast
Vancouver Island Pacific herring, and Pacific halibut.
Criteria
Models

Chinook (17)
Chum (29)
Coho (52)
Pink (16)
Sockeye (31)
Herring (42)
Halibut (60)

1.07
0.62
0.58
0.53
0.69
1.01
0.23

R MSE
2
3
1.01
0.63
0.57
0.52
0.64
0.98
0.21

1.06
0.58
0.58
0.47
0.67
0.98
0.22

R2

A IC

1.03
0.57
0.58
0.54
0.64
0.95
0.19

0.15
0.44
0.44
0.41
0.21
0.36
0.81

0.29
0.45
0.46
0.45
0.34
0.42
0.85

0.56
0.69
0.81
0.89
0.88
0.46
0.99

0.58
0.71
0.81
0.86
0.89
0.51
0.99

52.5
56.8
92.5
26.6
67.1
123.3
-3.4

51.3
58.6
92.5
27.4
63.3
120.9
-14.1

53.6
54.1
95.1
30.2
66.6
122.1
-0.5

52.8
53.7
94.4
29.1
64.5
119.9
- 17.6

8.5.2. Model Comparison

Three criteria measured model fit: (i) root mean squared error (R MSE ), where smaller R MSE
values indicate better fit; (ii) squared correlation coefficients (R2 ), where higher R2 values
indicate better fit; and (iii) Akaike information criteria (A IC) (Sakamoto et al. 1987), used
to penalize the M SE according to the number of model parameters, where smaller A IC
values indicate better fit.
S R data from the seven populations (Tab. 8.1) were fitted to four models: Ricker model
(8.3), Ricker climatic model (8.4), crisp regime S R model in Section 8.3., and the fuzzy
logic S R model in Section 8.4.. Residuals were examined for homogeneity, normality and
time series autocorrelation. Residuals for the herring and halibut populations were temporally correlated. After testing a series of autoregressive and movingaverage models using
the maximum likelihood method on these data sets, we used the first order autoregressive
model that we found provided satisfactory fit.
The densitydependent parameter in the Ricker S R model (8.3) was significant for all
stocks except chinook (Tab. 8.2, column 1-b), which means that there was a significant
stockrecruitment relationship for the remaining stocks.
In almost all cases, including E V (Ricker climatic model (8.4)) improved the model
fit as shown by decreasing R MSE, increasing R2 and decreasing A IC (Tab. 8.1, columns
labeled as 1 and 2). These improvements were statistically significant for sockeye
salmon, Pacific herring, and Pacific halibut (Tab. 8.2, column 2-E V). We conclude that
the recruitment of these populations was affected by the environmental index (E V). To
test whether environmental regimes were significant, we fit the crisp regime S R model in
Section 8.3. (Fig. 8.2) using longterm time series means to classify each regime, and the
fuzzy logic model in Section 8.4. (Fig. 8.3). With the possible exception of pink salmon, the
fuzzy logic S R model outperformed the crisp regime S R model (Tab. 8.1, columns labeled

Fuzzy Logic to Assess Climate Change and Spawner Recruitment Relations

205

Table 8.2. Results of statistical tests (S = significant, NS = nonsignificant). Model

(1-b) is the Ricker model (8.3) to test the significance of the parameter b. Model
(2-E V) is the Ricker climatic model (8.4) to test the significance of including the E V
into the Ricker model. Model (4-a) is the fuzzy logic model testing the significance of
the stock productivity parameter H0 : a1 = a2 and Model (4-b) is the fuzzy logic model
testing the significance of densitydependent parameter H0 : b1 = b2 .
Models

1-b

2-E V

4-a

4-b

Chinook
Chum
Coho
Pink
Sockeye
Herring
Halibut

NS
S
S
S
S
S
S

NS
NS
NS
NS
S
S
S

NS
NS
NS
NS
S
S
NS

NS
NS
NS
NS
NS
S
S

3 and 4).
Therefore, the fuzzy logic model is used to test whether:
1. there was a significant difference in stock productivity between regimes 1 and 2, i.e.
H0 : a1 = a2 (Tab. 8.2, column 4-a); and
2. densitydependent effects were significant between regimes, i.e.
(Tab. 8.2, column 4-b).

H0 : b1 = b2

If neither were significant, that would indicate that the stock was not affected by the environmental variable (E V) and, therefore, the simple Ricker S R model (8.3) would be appropriate for stock recruitment analysis (Fig. 8.3). Differences were not significant for chinook,
chum, coho, and pink salmon, which was consistent with our earlier finding that S STA
did not improve the Ricker model. For data sets like these, the simple Ricker S R model
(8.3) would be appropriate for stock recruitment analysis. However, the fuzzy logic model
demonstrated that there was a significant difference in productivity between regimes for
sockeye salmon, there were significant differences in densitydependence for halibut, and
both parameters varied between regimes for herring (Fig. 8.3).

8.6. Conclusion
Fuzzy logic models consistently outperformed traditional stockrecruitment approaches as
measured by several diagnostic criteria. Data sets were highly variable in terms of length
and contrast, as is often the case in this type of work. The standard Ricker model was
significant for datasets from six of seven populations (species) examined. Including an
environmental variable without applying fuzzy reasoning improved the fit of the Ricker
model in all cases, and further improvements were made when the environmental data were

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D.G. Chen and J.R. Irvine

Figure 8.3. Stockrecruitment data with the radius of the bullets () proportional to the
magnitude of fuzzy membership values of the E V in Fig. 8.1: the higher the E V, the larger
the radius. The lines are the resultant S R models. For chinook, chum, coho and pink
salmon, there is only one combined Ricker model since there were no significant changes
between the two regimes. For sockeye, there are different Ricker productivity parameters in
the two regimes, for herring, both a and b are different, and for halibut, the bs are different.

assigned a membership function to particular regimes using a fuzzy logic approach. For
three of the populations (species), a fuzzy logic approach identified significant differences
in productivity and/or density dependent effects between regimes.
The application of fuzzy logic is not restricted to the simplistic examples of two regimes
presented here. For instance, there appear to have been 11 regime shifts in the North Pacific
since 1650 (Gedalof and Smith 2001). The fuzzy logic approach in Section 8.4. can be
easily adopted and extended to multiple regimes by using multiple ifthen rules. We suggest
a reasonable approach often is to start with testing for effects of two possible regimes as
we did in this Chapter. If there is no detectable significance between the two regimes, as
we found for most of our Pacific salmon data sets, there is no need to develop a procedure
for more regimes. If differences between regimes are significant, as we found with sockeye
salmon, herring and halibut, then the possibility of multiple regimes should be considered.
Fuzzy logic can also be used to investigate the possibility of climate change occurring

Fuzzy Logic to Assess Climate Change and Spawner Recruitment Relations

207

without regime shifts by setting fuzzy membership values between 0 and 1. For instance,
Mackinson et al. (1999) suggested that rules be combined in a fuzzy system using a simple
weighting factor to account for a systematic longterm influence of E Vs on recruitment
success.
Peterman et al. (2003) recently demonstrated the value of using a Kalman filter when
evaluating temporal patterns in productivity. Bristol Bay sockeye salmon productivities increased rapidly, corresponding to a regime shift in the mid1970s, but trends were more
complex than indicated by the simple step functions used by many earlier workers. However, Peterman et al. (2003) did not investigate mechanisms for the productivity changes
they found. Fuzzy reasoning could be a powerful next step used to evaluate the correlation
between environmental variables and productivity in analyses such as these.
Major changes to marine ecosystems resulting from global climate variation pose enormous challenges to those responsible for the assessment and management of fishery and
other resources. The successful implementation of policies that will enable sustainable
fisheries, especially during period of climate change, will require a good understanding of
relationships between numbers of spawners and the subsequent recruitment, and how these
relationships are affected by climate change. In this Chapter we showed the usefulness of
fuzzy systems in evaluating simple examples of climate change. Chen and Ware (1999)
used a neural network model with a fuzzy logic based decisionmaking procedure to select
allpossible neural network models. Saila (1996) reviewed possible applications of A I to
fishery research including the neural network and fuzzy logic models with genetic algorithms to natural resource management and ecological modeling. Other A I methodologies
described in this book can also provide advantages over traditional techniques in the analyses of S R relationships (for other examples of applications in fisheries, cf. Chapter 3).
Science is at an exciting stage in terms of the development and application of A I methodologies and we encourage scientists to investigate the possibility of applying the various A I
methods described throughout this book.

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