Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(1) According to Kegley and Wittkopf, (2008: 409) war is a condition arising w/n
states (civil war) OR b/n states (interstate war) when actors use violent means to
destroy their opponents or coerce them into submission
(2) Ray and Kaarbo (2009: 177) disaggregate war into two components:
i. interstate wars: wars b/n states
ii. internal, or intrastate, wars: civil wars within states
(3) Turetzky (October 6, 2009: 234pm) notes that the COW Project at the University of
Michigan defines interstate war as a conflict between at least two states resulting in at least
1000 battlefield casualties...
5. Severity: During WWI, 8.4M soldiers and 1.4M civilians died; during WWII
16.9M soldiers and 34.3M civilians died (so you can see civilians were more of a
target since WWIratio of soldiers to civilians killed went from 6:1 in WWI to
1:2 by WWII)
6. According to K&W (p412), interestingly, armed conflict has become
increasingly concentrated in the 3rd worldsince 1945, 9 out of every 10 wars
have been in the weak or failed states of the Global South (Worldwatch 1999
database diskette)
7. Since 1990, most armed conflicts have occurred in Asia and Africaregions
w/the largest # of countries, largest populations, and LOWEST levels of incomes
8. On the other hand, according to Fareed Zakaria (2009: pp8-9), the world feels
"very dangerous...but it isn't. Your chances of dying as a consequence of
organized violence of any kind are low and getting lower. The data reveal a broad
trend away from wars amoung major countries, the kind of conflict that
produces massive casualties."
9. Ted Robert Gurr (2005) concurs, arguing that "the general magnitude of global warfare
has decreased by over sixty percent [since the mid-1980s], falling by the end of 2004 to its
lowest level since the late 1950s."
10. Zakaria suggests that violence peaked just before the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and
has steadily decreased since then.
11. Harvard Sociology professor Steven Pinker (2007) argues "that today we are probably
living in the most peaceful time in our species' existence"
12. Obviously war isn't obsolete, bloody wars between major powers may yet be fought,
and human nature still often regresses to solving conflicts through the application of force
(see especially the bloodbath that took place in Yugoslavia in the early to mid-1990s as well
as the genocides taking place in Rwanda [1995], Sudan [ongoing], and Congo [1994-2005],
among others for confirmation that humans are still prone to violence) BUT in the grand
historical sweep of time, the times we are living in right now are unusually calm...
13. In this lecture , we examine the causes of war from all 3 levels of analysis
what the great, seminal scholar of international relations Kenneth Waltz (1959)
calls the three images of war--the individual, the state, and the international
system
a. 1st level: that the causes of war are traceable to human nature and
individual behavior
b. 2nd level: that the causes of war are traceable to states internal
characteristics (ie economic system, type of govt, extreme love of
country)
c. 3rd level: that the cause of war are found at the global level
(power transitions, cycles)
II. The First Level of Analysis: Human Nature or Individual Leaders?
A. Human Nature Arguments re: the Causes of War
1. John Rourke and Mark Boyer (2009: 244-245), suggest two explanations at this level--the
nature of the human species OR beliefs and behavior of individual leaders
3. IOWs individual leaders may have a personality that favors taking risks,
when caution is probably the better strategic choice; they may also have a
psychological need to acquire total power
a. John Stoessinger argues, for example, that Saddam Hussein is
simply a "war lover"; others described him as a madman or Hitlerlite...he's also been described as having a personality driven to seek
power and to dominate, which can be seen as traits not consistent with
NOT being willing to cooperate
b. A lot of people have placed George W Bush "on the couch" as well
to try and discern reasons for taking the US into war with Iraq in
2003. Many have suggested he has a "daddy complex" or that he
ordered an attack b/c he wanted to finish what his "daddy" wasn't
willing to finish. Some have suggested he ordered the attack to pay
Hussein back for ordering a hit on his daddy...
4. So just keep in mind that the causes of violence and war are
complex and that the theories supporting the idea that humans by
nature are conflict prone are overly simplistic and really NOT
supported by most of the empirical evidence
5. It is clear that individual leaders make the decisions to bring
countries into wars
6. but FPDM decisions to take a country to war are probably NOT
done so b/c humans are innately aggressive, or b/c the ntl character is
aggressive
7. sometimes, an individual is so uniquely evil that he can bring a
country and every so often the world, to its kneesbut that is rare
III. The Second Level of Analysis: States Internal Characteristics
c. On the other hand, many argue that capitalist states are LESS likely to want war b/c it gets in
the way of doing business, gets in the way of the global supply chain, and disrupts markets,
trade, and generates political and economic instability...
d. Ray and Kaarbo (190) make the points that not all capitalist states have engaged in
imperialism, that war has been around longer than capitalist economic systems, and that wars
between capitalist states were not fought for economic reasons...
e. They also make the point that centrally planned economies may be more inherently war prone
b/c they are very often (ie see Bulgaria, North Korea, Cuba, etc) isolated economically and
therefore will not hurt their economy as much as war can shrink the profits of capitalist states
involved in wars...
level of analysis is the idea of long cycles of great power rises and
declines
2. K&W (p432): an interpretation of world history that focuses on
repeating patterns of interstate behavior, such as the outbreak of
system-wide general wars at regular intervals, after long periods
during which other patterns (global peace) were dominant
3. That isnt a very clear definition of the theorylets more clearly
examine the theory.
4. The theory seeks to explain: the rise and fall of great powers and
periods of war and peace
5. The theory claims: global system goes through distinct and
identifiable cycles or patterns of behavior, usually 50 to 100 year cycles
of GPs rising and decliningusually GP war causes a country to rise
and another to decline
6. According to George Modelski
o They overcommit
o Too costly to maintain such domination (ie Imperial
Overstretch)
o The appearance of rivals deligitimizes the hegemons
authority