Professional Documents
Culture Documents
January 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS.......................................................................................... V
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT............................................................................................................. VII
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................... 1
RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS.....................................................................................3
2013 has seen some encouraging economic developments.............................................................. 3
although the fiscal and external balances have deteriorated............................................................. 5
Medium term prospects are positive................................................................................................... 6
but substantial risks remain................................................................................................................. 7
Looking forward, the sources of growth need to be revisited................................................................ 9
BASIC EDUCATION IN CAMEROON..........................................................................................11
Cameroon has made significant progress in access to basic education.......................................... 11
but important disparities persist..................................................................................................... 13
because of resource allocation and governance problems.............................................................. 15
Looking forward, tackling these issues would strengthen the basic education system....................20
REFERENCES.............................................................................................................................23
iii
CFA Franc
CONFEMEN
CPI
CTP
DENOs
Dpenses engages mais non-ordonnances (expenditure committed but for which no payment
order has been issued)
DSCE
Document de Stratgie pour la Croissance et lEmploi (Growth and Employment Strategy Paper)
ECAM
EESI
Enqute sur lEmploi et le Secteur Informel (Employment and Informal Sector Survey)
EGMA
EGRA
EMIS
GDP
IMF
INS
MINEDUB
PASEC
Programme dAnalyse des Systmes ducatifs de la CONFEMEN (Program for the Analysis of
Education Systems)
PTR
Pupil-Teacher Ratio
PTA
SNH
SONARA
UNESCO
UNICEF
WB
World Bank
ZEP
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The Cameroon Economic Updates are produced
encouragement.
vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
With these Cameroon Economic Updates, the World
on a topical issue.
of Basic Education.
cent in 2011.
in Africa.
affordability.
Growth
driver of economic growth (Figure 2), telecommunications and transport being particularly dynamic.
In the primary sector, industrial and export-oriented
agriculture has driven growth. Rubber and cotton
exports have continued to rise while cocoa exports
have reversed their downward trend due to better
prices (Figure 3). Coffee exports however have fallen
by about 50 percent, due to a combination of factors:
the slowdown in production due to aging plants and
a gradual retreat from the sector, was compounded
2008
2009
2010
2011
Primary sector
Oil
Secondary sector (excl. otil)
Tertiary sector
GDP Growth
2007
Logs and
wood
products
Cotton
Aluminium
Cocoa
Rubber
FIGURE 1: G
DP Growth by Quarter, 20112013
(percentage change over same
quarter, previous year)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Q2
Q3
2011
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
2013
1
The 4.4 percent estimate mentioned in the 2013 July issue of
the Cameroon Economic Updates was revised to 4.6 percent.
Accordingly, it generated between 75 and 100 MW during the rainy season (JulyDecember), when hydropower was abundant and cheap, and has been running almost at full capacity since December (between
170 and 180 MW). It is planned to expand the plants
capacity by an additional 114 MW and the transmission
lines connecting Kribi to Eda are already equipped
accordingly. However, while the gas plant is useful to
complement Cameroons energy mix, the grid transporting power from Eda to Douala and Yaound, the
countrys main centers of electricity consumption, is
overloaded and outworn. It urgently needs investment
to keep up with rising demand and ensure the power
supply of Cameroons main urban centers.
In the oil sector, the upward trend in production has
continued, expanding to 17.4 million barrels in the first
three quarters of 2013, compared to 17 million barrels
over the same period last year (Figure 5). However, this
expansion is slower than that projected earlier this year
because of delayed activities in new oil fields. Total oil
Inflation
In 2013, prices rose moderately and the inflation rate
ended the year well below the regional convergence
criterion of three percent (Figure 7). The overall price
level increased by 1.6 percent in 2013 (year-on-year),
compared to 2.5 percent over the same period the
year before. Food prices, which have been the main
driver of inflation in recent years, rose only by 2.2 percent, mainly because of good harvests (compared to
4.2 percent over the same period last year). The continued freeze on retail fuel prices has also contributed
to containing inflationary pressures.
5.0
4.5
4.0
Sources: SNH.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013
2010
2011
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012
2009
2010
2011
Chad
Oil exports/total
exports
Cameroon
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
Apr-13
Sep-13
Nov-12
Jan-12
Jun-12
Aug-11
Oct-10
Mar-11
Dec-09
May-10
Jul-09
Feb-09
Apr-08
Sep-08
Jun-07
Nov-07
Jan-07
Fiscal
Overall, lower than budgeted revenues and under
Projections on the basis of the fiscal performance
2013
2013
2013
Est.
Budget
July Proj.
Proj.
18.8
19.2
18.8
18.4
5.4
5.1
5.2
5.0
Non-oil Revenue
13.0
13.6
13.2
13.1
Direct taxes
3.6
3.6
3.5
0.8
0.8
0.8
5.6
6.3
6.6
2.3
2.2
2.4
Non-tax revenue
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
20.4
21.5
22.4
22.1
Current Spending
14.0
14.6
16.0
15.6
Capital Spending
6.5
6.9
6.3
6.5
Overall Balance*
1.7
2.3
3.6
3.7
7.2
7.7
8.9
Grants
Total Spending
External
the same as the year before, but more than one per-
lion USD.
years of contraction.
2012
2013 (proj.)
2.3
1.1
1.6
Imports
24.4
23.8
23.4
Non-oil exports
10.6
11.1
10.5
Excluding grants
3.8
4.8
4.9
Including grants
2.9
4.0
4.0
1.5
4.3
3.7
1.0
1.6
1.7
1.5
2.1
2.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1.0
2.2
1.9
Oil sector
0.4
0.6
0.7
Non-oil sector
0.6
1.6
1.2
1.3
0.3
0.2
Trade balance
Overall balance
Source: IMF.
105
100
95
90
Netherlands
China
France
85
Italy
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
80
10 8
2012
2013
10
2014
2011
2012
2013
(proj.)
Audited arrears
1.4
1.1
0.9
DENOs
1.1
1.4
1.9
Obligations to SONARA*
1.4
1.6
2.0
Obligations to importers
0.0
0.5
0.9
Residual obligations
0.0
0.0
1.0
Total
3.9
4.6
6.7
External risks
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2019
2020
%
Executed
Internal Resources
676
239
35.4
External Resources
281
232
82.6
Total
957
471
49.2
Execution
2018
Nominal USD
2017
60
2016
70
fully watched.
2015
80
2014
2013
90
12
10
4
2
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Reference Scenario
Actual/Projected
currencies and stock markets of several major developing economies declined by as much as 15 percent.
Such movements can have an indirect impact on the
Cameroonian economy through its increasing trade
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Catch up Vision 2035
Actual/Projected
require an annual growth rate of 9.5 percent during the 20142020 period, compared to the 4.8 to
5.4 percent projected by the World Bank (Figure 12).
3
Actual growth rate for 20102012, projected growth rate
for 2013.
10
tion system.
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
1991
Cameroon
2001
SSA
Low income
2011
Middle income
11
FIGURE 14: P
rimary Completion Rates,
19812011 (in percent)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
1991
2001
Cameroon
SSA
2011
Low income
Middle income
70
10
60
50
40
30
20
2001
Cameroon*
2011
SSA
Low income
Middle income
12
12
10
0
1996
Average score French 5th grade
2005
Average score Maths 5th grade
Source: PASEC.
80
20
15
60
10
40
5
0
20
East
Littoral
Douala
West
North West
South West
Yaound
Adamaoua
South
Center
Far North
10
North
Benin
Cte d'Ivoire
Comores
Chad
Congo
Burkina Faso
Togo
Senegal
Burundi
DRC
Madagascar
Cameroon
Gabon
Source: PASEC.
East
North West
Douala
Yaound
South
South West
Adamaoua
Center
5
10
Littoral
West
Far North
15
North
Regions
Rural
Urban
North
Far North
Adamaoua
Cameroon
East
20
Centre
North West
40
West
Littoral
60
South West
South
13
80
1.0
70
0.9
60
50
0.8
40
30
0.7
20
10
Urban
Rural
Littoral
Center
South
East
West
South West
Cameroon
North West
Adamaoua
North
0.6
Far North
1981
1991
Cameroon*
SSA
2001
Low income
2011
Middle income
areas. The adult illiteracy rate in rural areas is 57 percent, more than three times higher than in urban
areas (about 17 percent). These figures mirror general
poverty rates, where the same regions are subject to
higher levels of poverty as well as chronic poverty.
Income/Wealth
There are significant differences in educational
achievements between income groups in Cameroon.
While almost all (97 percent) students belonging to the
Gender
Gender parity in basic education in Cameroon has not
improved since the 1990s. Once enrolled, fewer girls
complete primary education than boys. The gender
parity index for primary completion rate is the ratio of
the female primary completion rate to the male primary
richest 20 percent finish primary school, only 40 percent of the poorest quintile do so. Figure 23 shows the
composition of the student body in each of the education subsectors by wealth quintile. While enrollment in
the primary sector is more or less equally distributed,
the distribution becomes increasingly unequal as we
move up the education ladder. In the first cycle of the
40
20
is the ratio of primary school age girls enrolled in primary education to the total number of primary school
age girls, reveals important differences between rural
14
Primary
Secondary 1
Q1 (poorest)
Q2
Secondary 2
Q3
Q4
Tertiary
Q5 (richest)
represent a large majority of students (81 and 97 percent, respectively), while there are almost no students
from the poorest quintiles.
15
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Cameroon
Low income
countries
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Middle income
countries
50
40
30
20
10
0
Secondary
Sub-Saharan Africa
Tertiary
Cameroon
(Figure 28).
Weak governance and accountability further undermines the efficiency of theses limited public resources
300
200
tion sector is corrupt or extremely corrupt (SubSaharan Africa average was 57 percent, while the global
100
Primary
Secondary 1
Secondary 2
Tertiary
Data availability
looking at education spending per student in the different sub-sectors. Per student spending in the second
16
50
40
30
20
The School Report Card contains three indices, a context index (taking into account availability of electric-
10
Niger
Senegal
Chad
Mali
Congo
Cameroon
and performance by school. Contrary to the centralized statistical yearbooks, the new tool also allows all
actors of the system (institutional or communities) to
Lack of finance
Pregnancy/marriage
Work
Distance
Failure
Illness
Other
0
10
20
Performance Monitoring
40
30
Girls
50
60
Boys
Source: EESI 2.
Rwanda
South Africa
Kenya
Ethiopia
Global average
Uganda
South Sudan
Senegal
Nigeria
Burundi
SSA average
Madagascar
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Sierra Leone
Ghana
Malawi
DRC
Cameroon
Zambia
Tanzania
Mozambique
Liberia
17
Since accountability for performance in basic education, especially with regards to improving quality, is
imperfect at the school level, the next level, the subdivision inspectorate, needs to play a critical role
Cameroon*
Low income
countries
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Middle income
countries
80
70
and, if they do, the roads are often bad. Most important, this administrative level is seriously under-
60
50
40
30
a difficult task.
20
Littoral
South
South West
Center
West
North West
Cameroon
East
Adamaoua
Teachers
North
Far North
10
18
Teaching materials
300
250
The lack of textbooks in schools in lined to the supply of textbooksa process that is controversial.
The current practice of designing textbooks so that
Littoral
South
in classrooms.
South West
Center
West
50
North West
East
100
Adamaoua
200
150
North
Far North
19
Cameroon
Chad
Burundi
Liberia
Uganda
Togo
Zambia
Congo
Malawi
Mozambique
CAR
Rwanda
STP
Niger
Burkina Faso
Swaziland
Eritrea
Cape Verde
Mali
Gambia
Benin
Guinea
Mauritius
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Seychelles
textbooks.
Government and its partners are taking the following actions to strengthen production of education
statistics:
i.
Report Cards.
20
improve.
(EGMA). It will be important to place such assessments within a more systematic national assess-
The 2012 World Bank study on governance in education revealed that public school resources are not
be made public.
education could also be generated by improving efficiencies in public spending. The policy actions require
political willingness and a supporting political econ-
sion by Government and publishers. The administration plans to gradually move from a privately financed
system to a state-funded system in which the admin-
istration supplies textbooks. This reform would significantly improve the availability of textbooks, which
is considered one the most cost-effective way of
mative student learning evaluations. Student learning achievement is mainly tested at the end of the
21
22
REFERENCES
Institut National de la Statistique (2008), ECAM
D:C:
Yaound.
Rpublique du Cameroun (2011), Rapport provisoire
sur lvaluation des acquis scolaires en CM1/Class
Databases
le-pasec/acces-aux-donnees-du-pasec
Index, cpi.transparency.org
Rpublique du Cameroun (2013c), Maquette annuaire statistiques 2012. Document de travail. Ministre
bank.worldbank.org
23