Professional Documents
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Table of Contents
ABSTRACT
Table of Contents
I. INTRODUCTION
I.1. Background
I.2. Statement of the Problem
I.3. Objective of the Study
I.4. Contribution
II. LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT
II.1.
Dividend Payout and Earning Growth
12
II.2.
19
II.3.
20
II.4.
23
II.5.
Hypothesis Development
28
III. RESEARCH METHOD
III.1.
Data and Sample
Empirical Model
35
III.4.
37
IV. Findings and Discussions
IV.1.
Descriptive Statistic
39
IV.2.
6
10
10
11
12
32
32
III.1.1. Data
III.1.2. Sample
III.2.
Operational Definition of Variables
33
III.3.
32
33
39
Findings
41
IV.2.1. Dividend Payout Ratio and Earning Growth
IV.2.2. Return on Asset and Earning Growth
IV.2.3. Earning Yield and Earning Growth
42
43
45
46
48
V. CONCLUSION, LIMITATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS
V.1.
Conclusions
53
V.2.
Limitations
53
V.3.
Recommendations
53
54
References
55
List of Tables
Table 4.1. Descriptive Statistic
Table 4.2. Regression 2002-2010
Table 4.4.1. Normality Test
Table 4.4.2 Heteroscedasticity Test
40
41
49
50
50
51
List of Appendices
Appendix 1. Descriptive Statistic
58
59
60
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 Background
success stories like people becoming rich after investing their money in the stock
market. Therefore, many people choose to make their choice on stock market to
invest their money. The problem is that people started without a good
understanding of how to invest in the stock market and in the end achieving huge
loss and never play again.
Before investing in the stock market, knowledge about stock market and
determinant factor of stock price movement should be known. Some simple
example are what is the business, how the growth of the industry in the business,
is there growth slump in the sector, how the profit of the company, how much is
the debt of the company, how about the dividend record, how about the profit
margin and many more. This is like knowing a land quality before it is going to
grow fruits. Imagine the company as land, the quality of the land can be measured
by a lot of things such as wetness, softness, and many more. To grow a tree
needed fertilizer which can be assumed as money invested. The tree finally grow
fruits that is the profit of the company. The return will be small portion of the fruit
from the tree. This should be known because in the stock market, small player is
like a small fish that will not make significant change in the market. Individual
investor is the smallest fish compared to big players, brokers and investment
companies. Larger investor which invest bigger money will have bigger risk but
also have bigger power in the market and sometimes able to control the movement
of the stock price.
There are two ways to do the analysis in the stock market, the fundamental
and the modern way of technical analysis. Fundamental analysis is using the
income statement of the company and look for some important point such as
profit and growth. Technical analysis is using more modern tools that is chart.
Technical analysis views believe the old pattern will be played again in the future
and also the chart is drawing everything that happens in the market. There is no
right or wrong in doing the analysis using technical and fundamental as many
investor using both to choose good stock nowadays.
There are two kinds of stock according to their capitalization, big capital
stock and small capital stock. Big capital stocks are stocks that are having higher
market capitalization compared to the small one. In Indonesia, there is an index
called LQ45 or Liquid 45 which consists of mostly big capital stocks that are play
more significant role in bringing the IHSG index movement. The stock listed in
LQ45 is usually better than stocks that are not listed especially in fundamental
value but this is not always true. Some of the stocks are big capital stock because
of the formula of market capitalization is number of shares outstanding times the
market price.
One of the reasons is that most likely the popular blue chip stocks are
listed in LQ45. Blue chip is originally derived from poker. In poker, there are red,
white, and blue chips. In playing poker, blue chip is the highest value. Usually the
white chip is $1, the red chip is $5, while the blue chip is $25. According to
investopedia.com, blue chip stocks are defined as stock of a large, wellestablished and financially sound company that has operated for many years. A
blue-chip stock typically has a market capitalization in the billions, is generally
the market leader or among the top three companies in its sector, and is more often
than not a household name. While dividend payments are not absolutely necessary
for a stock to be considered blue-chips, most blue-chips have a record of paying
stable or rising dividends for years, if not decades . Therefore, blue chip stocks can
be said as stock with good fundamental and also big capitalization in the capital
market.
The analysts nowadays tend to combine the fundamental analysis and also
the technical analysis. The stocks are chosen using the fundamental analysis
because it is important to determine the solid footing of the stock and then
following the movement of the stock price with the help of technical analysis.
Some of the basic questions are are corporate profit growing consistently?,
how the company makes money?, are their operation rely on debt?, and many
more, but the main point is that the understanding of the company. Some ways to
choose the stock is using the financial ratios. Some of them are related to the
growth of the company, profitability, and also the leverage, which is debt.
Dividend payout is the one the factor related to growth of the company while
profit margin is related to profitability of the company. Debt to equity is used to
measure leverage. Leverage is how much the company able to finance its own
operation using equity.
Among all factors above, there is still earning growth. Earning growth is
measured by the measuring the change in percentage the earning per share
increase in percentage per year. This is related to the profit of the company and
also related how much the profit growth that is earned per share. The increase in
earning growth is also related to the better performance of the company in the
stock market. Therefore, high growth of earning growth will most likely effect in
raise of stock price.
10
1.4. Contribution
These research contributions are:
1. To Investors
This research is able to help investor to choose better
investment based on dividend payout ratio, earning yield,
return on asset, and long-term debt to equity ratio.
2. To Company
This research is to help companies to understand which part of
the companies need to be fixed to meet investor expectation in
the company financial report.
Chapter 2
Literature Review and Hypothesis Development
Earning growth is based on earning per share variable. Earning per share is
calculated by distributing net income minus dividend by the number of
outstanding shares. Earning per share is also popular tools used to analyze firm
profitability.
11
12
distinguish it from the fixed schedule dividends. Dividends are usually paid in the
form of cash, store credits (common among retail consumers' cooperatives), or
shares in the company (either newly created shares or existing shares bought in
the market). Further, many public companies offer dividend reinvestment plans,
which automatically use the cash dividend to purchase additional shares for the
shareholder.
Cash dividends (most common) are those paid out in currency, usually via
electronic funds transfer or a printed paper check. Such dividends are a form of
investment income and are usually taxable to the recipient in the year they are
paid. This is the most common method of sharing corporate profits with the
shareholders of the company. For each share owned, a declared amount of money
is distributed. Thus, if a person owns 100 shares and the cash dividend is $0.50
per share, the holder of the stock will be paid $50. Dividends paid are not
classified as an expense but rather a deduction of retained earnings. Dividends
paid do not show up on an income statement but do appear on the balance sheet.
Stock dividends are those paid out in the form of additional stock shares of
the issuing corporation or another corporation (such as its subsidiary corporation).
They are usually issued in proportion to shares owned (for example, for every 100
shares of stock owned, a 5% stock dividend will yield five extra shares). If the
payment involves the issue of new shares, it is similar to a stock split in that it
increases the total number of shares while lowering the price of each share
without changing the market capitalization, or total value, of the shares held.
13
There are many theories about dividend, such as Gordon (1962), Miller
and Modigliani (1961), and also Ibbotson and Chen (2003), as cited by Zhou and
Ruland (2006). Gordon (1962) say that constant dividend growth model is linear
with constant expected return, high dividend payout should be equivalent by
either a high P/E or low expected earnings growth. Miller and Modigliani (1961)
argue about dividend irrelevance theory, the explanation is with unaltered
investments and constant expected return, higher dividend payout will be
followed by lower growth. The same thing, Miller and Modigliani dividend
irrelevance theory, also has been argued by Ibbotson and Chen (2003). Ibbotson
and Chen explain the extension of Miller and Modigliani dividend irrelevance
theory. This extension predicts that with unaltered investment and constant
expected return, higher dividend payout will be followed by lower growth.
14
mean lower payout ratio. This finding is consistent with the bird in the hand
theory. The bird in the hand theory believes that the more money reinvested in the
company there will be more future capital gain.
However, there is new finding that opposite with this perspective. This
finding was introduced by Arnott and Asness (2003). They did their research by
investigating the relationship between payout and future earnings growth by
focusing on the market portfolio. Arnott and Asness (2003) finding a positive
relationship between the payout ratio and ten-year future earnings growth over the
period 1871 to 2001. Robert and Asness (2003) examined that companies with
higher payout ratios e.g. dividends actually have higher real earnings growth over
the following 10-year period. They analyzed data from the S&P 500 index over
the years 1946 to 2001. Over every rolling 10-year period the highest dividend
payers had the highest earnings growth. This finding is consistent with dividend
signaling theory. The stability in dividend distribution shows confidence in the
company future prospect.
After Arnott and Asness, more and more researchers doing the test in
many other countries in the world such as Parker (2005), Gwilym et al (2006),
Vivan (2006), and also Zhou and Ruland (2006) as cited by Parsian, Koloukhi,
and Abdolnejad (2013). Their result is not much different. Parker (2005) found the
strong and positive relation between earnings growth and dividend payout ratio
across America, Canada, and Australia during 1956 to 2005. Gwilym et al (2006)
researches 10 countries and find the consistent result. Vivan (2006) found the
same result by testing 20 industries in England. Zhou and Ruland (2006) tested
15
the dividend-earnings relationship at the firm level, given the large sample the
results at the market level may potentially be dominated by a few large firms.
Flint, Tan, Tian (2010), examines the use of the payout ratio as a predictor of a
firms future earnings growth. According to the result it rejects the hypothesis that
the firms that retain large portion of their earnings have strong future earnings
growth. They provided further evidence that the dividend payout ratio is
positively linked to future earnings growth and found that no evidence to support
the cash flow signaling and free cash flow hypotheses as an explanation for this
relationship. Their test was based on Australian markets. The results also
supported Arnott and Asness (2003), while holding under numerous specification
tests. Koch and Sun (2004) examined whether the market interprets changes in
dividends as an indication about the persistence of past earnings changes and also
defined whether a change in dividends alters investors' as assessments about the
valuation inferences of past earnings. The result concluded that the changes in
dividends cause investors to revise their expectations about the persistence of past
earnings changes.
There were some researchers who found similar result with Arnott and
Asness, they use different variable but its in the same way with Arnott and
Asness. Nissim and Ziv (2001), investigated that the relationship between
dividend changes and future earnings, they found that the dividend changes
provide information about the level of profitability in subsequent years, the result
shows that the dividend changes are positively related with future earnings.
Nissim and Ziv argue that previous studies have failed to uncover the true relation
16
between dividends and future earnings because researchers have been using the
thw wrong model to control for the expected changes in earnings. Specifically,
they report that when using a regression analysis that controls for a particular
form of mean reversion in earnings, dividend changes are positively correlated
with future earnings changes. Benartzi et al (2005), examined that the dividend
changes are positively related with future earnings in sense of profitability, they
also showed that the dividend changes are negatively co-related with future
earnings changes in sense of return on assets while controlling the non-linear
pattern behavior of earnings. Sloan (1996) examined that the stock prices that
reflects the information about future earnings that controlled in increases and cash
flow mechanism of current earnings. The degree to which current earnings show
into the future earning which is depending on the relative magnitudes of cash flow
and current earnings. However investors grip on earnings, failing to reflect full
information about the degree to which cash flow components of current earnings
impacts on the future earnings.
According to Arnott and Asness research, higher future earnings growth is
associated with high rather than low dividend payout. This is in contrast with
Miller and Modigliani theorem. However, according to Arnott and Asness, Miller
and Modigliani was said proving the theorem in ideal assumption. One of their
assumptions is about no tax charged. In no tax world, dividend policy is not
important. In this assumption, company has no reason to collect capital from
bond, stock, or earnings but to choose the lowest cost of capital possible. On the
other side, investor has no reason to care for the whether an investment pays a
17
dividend that the investor can reinvest or the company can reinvest to maximize
growth equivalent to forgone dividend yield. Therefore, any changes in dividend
policy will not affect firm value, which means that investment policy and dividend
policy should be standing on different ground.
Arnott and Asness provide some possible explanations for this finding.
First, as cited by Arnott and Asness (2003), managers are loath to cut dividend
(Lintner, 1956). The reason behind this is the stable dividend payment indicating
the confidence in stability and growth of future earnings. The confidences can be
based on public or private information (Miller and Rock, 1985). Second, the
possibility of managers retaining too much earnings as a result of the managers
desire to built empires (Jensen, 1986) as cited by Arnott and Asness (2003). Third,
dividend is related with volatile earnings. The relation between dividend and
earnings is possibly positively related because temporary peaks and through in
earning could cause the payout ratio raise and down according to earning raise and
down. Fourth, the possibility of this data or experimental design is in error.
Possibility of this experimental design that is too time-period specific (either the
year covered study or the length of forecast period) or the result may be proxy for
other more fundamental variable that forecast economic activity.
Arnott and Asness suggested that the positive current payout-future growth
relationship in consistent with free cash flow theory. Jensen (1986) explained that
in free cash flow theory the managers of companies with abundant free cash flows
have incentives to overinvest. This could be explaining the low dividend-low
growth as a result of overinvestment on the part of low payout companies. In one
18
test of free cash flow theory by Lang and Litzenberger (1989), they examined
stock returns with announcements of dividend changes. They found, holding the
magnitude of dividend increases constant, companies with limited growth
experience larger share price increase. Lang and Linzenberger interpreted this
result as consistent with free cash flow theories. They argue that stronger market
reaction for the low-growth companies indicating decrease in agency cost by
increasing dividend.
19
income (or pretax profit) / total assets. Return on asset is known as a profitability
or productivity ratio, because it provides information about management
performance in using the asset to generate income. ROA act as tool to measure the
performance of the company. The profit percentage of assets varies by industry,
but in general, the higher the ROA the better. For this reason, it is often more
effective to compare a company's ROA to that of other companies in the same
industry or against its own ROA figures from previous periods. Falling ROA is
almost always a problem, but investors and analysts should bear in mind that
the ROA does not account for outstanding liabilities and may indicate a
higher profit level than actually derived.
20
other side, depends on stock market. The value of the stock in the market times
the outstanding shares will define the market value of the company.
Earning yield is a very unique variable in this research. This variable based
on both book value and market value. Earning per share is measured by book
value and price per share is defined by market value that is determined by a lot of
factor in the market. Price is also one factor that determines the profit of investors
since price increase is related to capital gain in stock investing which gives direct
profit while earning per share gives signal about how well the company
performing the whole period.
The earnings yield is a way to measure returns, and it helps investors
evaluate the return that can compensates investment risk. Earning yield does not
always in form of cash due to the possibility of reinvesting earning in the
company. Earning yield is different with dividend yield which depend on manager
capital allocation decision.
In the modern period, as shown by Arnott and Asness (2003) a low
earnings yield (high P/E) signals high future 10-year real earnings growth. This
finding supports the view that the market correctly anticipates faster future
earning growth and pays up for it. This relation is weaker compared with the
relation between payout ratio and future earning growth.
The sign of E/P is reversed from P/E ratio and a lower E/P (higher P/E)
indicating slightly lower earnings growth. In previous research, the success of E/P
is greater when older data are included. So, the power of market valuation levels
to forecast future returns is weaker than the power of the payout ratio, particularly
21
in the modern period. According to the result by Arnott and Asness, a high P/E has
almost no power to forecast future earnings growth in the presence of the payout
ratio.
Essentially, like the prior drop in earnings in 2001, where investors faced a
situation of very high P/E and very low payout ratios. History says such a period
is a time of poor expected long-term future earnings growth. By the very end of
2001, the situation had changed, where one year earning had dropped, sending
payout ratio somewhat upward but sending P/E ratio high. In both situation, the
conclusion imply that forward looking forecast of equity premium are very low
compared with history.
The recent condition of very high P/E and very low payout ratios
combines expensive valuation and a low forecast on earning growth. History
suggests that this combination is clearly a sign for low expected returns. In the
current condition, now that earnings have tumbled and payout ratios have returned
closer to normal, suggests more reasonable forecasts of earnings growth but from
a now reduced earnings base. With historically off the charts P/E, this change
provides little solace.
22
Leverage ratios measure how much financial leverage the firm has taken
on. Companies usually maintain the level of leverage ratios to make sure that
lenders continue to take on the firms debt. Debt ratio usually measured by longterm debt and total debt ratio.
When the debt ratio is high, the company has a lot more responsibility to
lenders. Therefore, the higher the debt ratio, the burden or responsibility will also
higher (a higher interest payment) and also more sensitive to interest rate changes.
On the other side, the lower the debt ratio, there will be lower amount of income
used to pay for interest which is also lower the sensitivity to interest rate increase
or changes.
High debt-to-equity ratio may indicate that a company may not be able to
generate enough cash to satisfy its debt obligations. However, low debt-to-equity
ratios may also indicate that a company is not taking advantage of the increased
profits that financial leverage may have.
Lenders and investors usually prefer low leverage ratios because the
lenders' interests are better protected in the event of a business decline and the
shareholders
are
more
likely
to
receive
at
least
some
of
their
original investment back in the event of liquidation. This is generally why high
leverage ratios may prevent a company from attracting additional capital.
As Myers (1989) explained, profitability is the single largest determinant
of debt / asset ratios. Specially, a one standard deviation increase in profitability
causes a 4.8 percent decrease in the long term debt ratio in Japan and 9.6 percent
decrease in the long term debt-asset ratio in the United States. Rajan and Zingales
23
24
25
amount of income but also lower tax payment because income is cut by debt
interest first then reduced by tax. Imagine that by long term debt, company can
change some of their source of income, for example not from shareholder but
from debt. This will create lower amount of shares outstanding but on the other
side, higher earning per share.
Simple example above can show why not all debt is bad, sometimes even
better. Debt can lowers the weighted average cost of capital. This with
understanding that not too high debt is good for companies. It is better to achieve
the optimal level of debt to maintain the optimal capital structure that is good for
the companies. It is difficult to say how much is good because it is different in
each type of industries. Some industries need more asset than others like
industries with high investment in fixed assets such as property and plant. The
greater the investment in fixed asset, the greater average use of debt especially
long-term debt. Bank is in different situation, banking industries need more
money to be distributed and therefore have completely different capital structure.
Another reason is company life cycle. Rapid growing companies, early stage
companies, often favor equity over debt because their shareholders will not
demand high dividend payout ratio because this kind of companies usually have
high growth in stock price. Companies with high growth usually have higher raise
in stock price do not need to give high dividend or do not even need to distribute
since it is compensated by high growth in stock price.
The reason why company issues long term debt also important for
investors. The company usually will give explanation about the new debt specific
26
purpose. There are some purposes of new long term debt. First is to fund growth.
This is to raise cash by using debt issuance used for specific investment. This
commonly happen in company that need heavy investment in fixed asset. This is
normally a good sign. Second is to refinance old debt. There are some company
that need the use of debt in their operation. So, when old debt is retires the
company will issue new debt, usually at different with the previous interest rate.
This is also a good sign for the company. Third is to change the capital structure.
The amount of cash from debt is used to change the equity balance. The cash can
be used to repurchase stock, issue dividend, or buyout big equity investor. Usually
buying back equity is a good sign for the company but this is also depending on
the situation in the market. Fourth is to fund operating needs. This means issuing
debt to pay operating expenses because cash flow generated in not enough. This is
usually not a good sign for the company. This is also depend on the condition of
the company.
27
increasing the earning growth will also increasing. This is not the same with
Miller and Modigliani that proposed the opposite ideas, where if the higher the
payout ratio there will be lower growth since there is lower amount of money
reinvested in the firm.
However according to Arnott and Asness, as cited by Zhou and Ruland,
Miller and Modigliani doing the research in ideal word since there is too much
assumption such as no tax and many more. There are also many researchers
showing the same result with Arnott and Asness view. There are also many
evidences from many researchers that support Arnott and Asness point of view
such as Zhou and Ruland, Gwylim et al, Parker, and many more. There are also
many contradict views that support the conventional wisdom. Gordon and Lintner
are some of those that support the conventional or bird in the hand theory. This
theory arguing that the more amount of dividend distributed there will be less
growth in the future. This bird in the hand theory has been the basic of many
dividend theory. Based on all those possible explanation about the effect of
dividend payout ratio to earning growth, the hypothesis developed is
H1
28
H2
29
H3
The last but not least important determinant is leverage ratio that will be
long-term debt to equity ratio. This is showing the level of debt in the company.
Debt is not bad thing since its also needed to help the company when the
company is short in cash but high debt is never a good sign in the company and it
is important to maintain optimal level of debt. High leverage is showing that the
company might not able to generate enough money to pay their cost. Therefore
high long-term debt to equity ratio will have negative relation with earning
growth. The hypothesis developed will be
H4
30
Chapter 3
Research Method
31
3.1.2. Sample
The sampling method used in this research is purposive sampling,
since there are some criteria before the stock is chosen as sample. The
stocks included in the sample should fulfill the following criterias :
1. Listed in Indonesian stock market since 2002 and having
positive earnings during 2002-2010
2. Book value of equity is positive
3. Paying dividend during 2002-2010
3.2. Operational Definition of Variables
Following Arnott and Asness, as cited by Zhou and Ruland, the writer use
the same measurement by Arnott and Asness. Therefore, the measurement of each
variables in this research are as stated below :
32
EG =
Payout =
ROA=
LEV =
E/P =
Size=
33
PER=
AG=
E
+ LEV + 6 PER t ,0 + 7 AG 0,t +e
P 5
where
EG =
earning growth
Payout =
Size=
ROA=
return on assets
LEV =
leverage
E/P =
earnings yield
34
PER=
AG=
This model will be tested for BLUE and the detail will be shown and
proven in the next chapter. The first is to find out which model suit this empirical
model best, fixed effect model or random effect. The test will be conducted using
eviews. If needed this empirical model will be tested for classical assumption. The
purpose of the test is to achieve BLUE (best linear unbiased estimator). This
model will be tested with normality test, homogeneity test, linearity test,
multicollinearity test, heteroskedasticity test, and autocollinearity test.
In this study, following Zhou and Ruland, so the writer examined earnings
growth over short (1 year ahead), intermediate (3 year ahead), and long (5 year
ahead) horizons but the writer examined the result with all year regression also.
According to Zhou and Ruland, short horizon is considered important for two
reasons. First is that, investors and analysts are also interested in short and
intermediate besides long-term growth. Second, long-term growth needs large
number observations where also increases bias as the observation period
increases.
The key independent variable is dividend payout ratio as cited in Zhou and
Ruland (2006). A negative coefficient on payout would support the conventional
wisdom that low earnings growth follows high payout. A positive coefficient on
payout would be consistent with the result presented in Arnott and Asness that is
also cited by Zhou and Ruland.
35
36
companies grew, the growth in earnings also observed. Thus, positive coefficient
for asset growth is expected.
37
coefficient for all independent, dependent, and control variables to t-statistic over
one, three, and five-year future earning growth.
Chapter 4
Findings and Discussions
This chapter will explain more on the findings of the research. The main
topics in this chapter consist of findings result, regression result, hypothesis
testing and discussion, and classic assumptions. The data is collected from
secondary sources. The research data is twenty three companies used as samples
that fulfill the requirements.
38
Payo
EG
e
0.30
Mean
Media
Debt
Size
PER
10.33
37.45
12.19
18,918,339
82.28
5
-
.5
4
-
0.11
9.384
-0.438
0.982
47.93
0
0.15
0.112
ROA
AG
ut
0.14
0.783
1
Continued to next page
0.389
0.695
21.560
5.564
9.089
0.181
-0.820 -0.761
-1.254
-0.835
0.000
-0.463 -6.24
-0.28
3.556
52.952
4.13
4.95
1.30
on
Minim
um
Maxim
um
123.172
59.12
2
11.112
39
T-Stat
-2.002
3.466
2.226
-1.478
0.566
2.158
0.364
Sig
0.295**
0.179***
0.269**
0.379
0.672
0.276**
0.778
0.000
(source
:
secondary
data,
processed
with
spss,
2002-2009)
*significant
at the 10
percent level
40
41
with bird in the hand theory. That the more income reinvested will result to
more future prospect of the company.
Another supporting perspective comes from the capital structure
introduced by Myers (1984) with pecking order theory as cited by Zhou
and Ruland (2006). This pecking order theory hypothesizes that companies
with great growth opportunities will prefer internally generated cash flow
to external source funds. Based on this hypothesis, companies with high
growth potential tend to pay lower dividend payout ratio. Some
researchers on determinants of dividend payout, such as Fama and French
(2001) and Rozeff (1982), as cited by Zhou and Ruland, also shown that
dividend payout is inversely correlated with investment opportunities.
According to this perspective, if more income reinvested in the company
there will more money to produce higher earning growth which also mean
lower payout ratio.
Therefore, in Indonesia Stock Market, the correlation between
dividend payout ratio and earning growth in Indonesia is negative.
Therefore, the decrease in dividend payout ratio will increase earning
growth. Therefore, the first hypothesis is not rejected.
42
there is increase in return on asset ratio then earning growth will also
increase and as the opposite.
Earning growth also measured from annual growth in asset and
return on asset measure the income generated from the relative asset
invested. Higher return on asset means the company is more efficient in
generating income using its asset which is will also increase the annual
growth in asset.
Return on asset ratio can be difficult to be high in already mature
company. Therefore in developed company, the return on asset ratio is
expected to be lower in mature company than in developing company.
This explains why the hypothesis expects to have negative correlation
earning growth in developed company. In the previous research, there is
assumption that return on asset on well developed country like United
States is low due to the maturing companies. Return on asset tend to be
high in developing countries because companies still growing to reach
maturity.
Therefore in Indonesian stock market return on asset ratio move is
linear with earning growth. This finding is not consistent with Arnott and
Asness but consistent with conventional knowledge. If return on asset ratio
increase, earning growth will increase and also as the opposite. This is
showing that in Indonesia the result is consistent with conventional
knowledge. That higher return on asset will result in higher earning
growth.
43
44
valuation and a low forecast on earning growth. History suggests that this
combination is clearly a sign for low expected returns.
Indonesia, in this case, tends to have no correlation between earning
yield and earning growth. This is not consistent with Arnott and Asness
finding but the coefficient indicating that the result is negative correlation
between earning yield and earning growth.
There are some possible reasoning behind this result. There is some
other factor that might influence this correlation. One of them is stock
price factor in the variable. Stock price is very volatile, affected by many
other factors such as rumours, bad news, politics, and many more. This
could be the reason why the t-statistic between these variables are not
significant.
45
46
The three hypothesis that are accepted are dividend payout ratio,
return on asset, and debt ratio. Dividend payout ratio shows consistency
with hypothesis with negative correlation. This result is consistent with
bird in the hand theory by Gordon and Lintner. Return on asset also shows
consistency with the hypothesis with positive correlation. This result
indicating that higher return will be better signal for growth. The higher
the earning generated and reinvested will be generating more income in
the future. This is indicating for higher future growth. The result for debt is
consistent with the hypothesis with positive correlation. This shows that
company with higher debt will have higher earning growth. This is
indicating that the more money invested in the company will create higher
future growth.
The earning yield variable shows no correlation with earning
growth because of unsignificant t-statistic. If t-statistic is not considered,
the result of the coefficient of earning yield showing consistency with the
hypothesis. This is indicating that the result is not going too far with what
expected. Therefore even is the result is not consistent with the hypothesis
but the result is still considered going the same way with the hypothesis.
47
207
0
0.820
0.091
0.091
-0.057
1.306
0.066
Mean
Std. Deviation
Absolute
Positive
Negative
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
a. Test distribution is Normal.
Std. Error
(Constant)
0.610
0.038
payout
-0.006
0.039
roa
0.023
debt
Coefficients
Beta
Sig.
16.051
-0.012
-0.166
0.869
0.043
0.043
0.540
0.590
-0.032
0.043
-0.058
-0.744
0.458
-0.013
0.040
-0.023
-0.313
0.754
size
-0.073
0.040
-0.134
-1.853
0.065
per
0.024
0.038
0.045
0.637
0.525
ag
-0.027
0.042
-0.050
-0.646
0.519
a.
Dependent Variable: eg
48
= 0.05 at two-sided
R
0.573
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Estimate
Durbin-Watson
0.328
0.304
0.834
2.021
49
Unstandardized
Standardized
Coefficients
Coefficients
Std. Error
0.000
0.058
payout
-0.058
0.059
roa
0.313
debt
1 (Constant
Sig.
Beta
Collinearity Statistics
Tolerance
VIF
-0.004
0.997
-0.058
-0.979
0.329
0.966
1.035
0.066
0.313
4.743
0.000
0.776
1.289
0.168
0.065
0.168
2.581
0.011
0.794
1.259
0.430
0.061
0.430
7.000
0.000
0.895
1.117
size
0.039
0.060
0.039
0.649
0.517
0.931
1.075
per
-0.002
0.058
-0.002
-0.028
0.978
0.991
1.009
ag
0.009
0.065
0.009
0.138
0.890
0.809
1.237
a.
Dependent
Variable: eg
Chapter 5
50
5.1 Conclusions
According to the regression result, there are three hypotheses that are
showing correct relationship. They are dividend payout ratio, return on asset, and
debt ratio. Dividend payout ratio showing negative relationship, return on asset
ratio showing positive relationship, and debt ratio showing positive relationship.
Earning yield is the only hypothesis that is not showing any correlation with
earning growth. Based from all statement above, dividend payout ratio, return on
asset, and debt ratio affect earning growth in Indonesian Stock Market but with
different correlation. So, based from the result about dividend payout ratio, return
on asset, debt ratio, and earning yield, can be concluded that higher dividend
payout ratio will create lower future returns, while higher return on asset ratio
moves linear with earning growth means increase in return on asset will also raise
earning growth, and higher debt moves linear with earning growth, indicating
higher debt will result in higher income generated in the future as sign of growth.
5.2 Limitations
This study has some limitations. The sample for this research is just twenty
three companies from all industries in Indonesia. This sample might not enough to
be cover all company listed in Indonesian Stock Market. This amount of sample is
result from requirements needed to be fulfilled such as constant dividend
distribution from 2002-2010 and positive earning during 2002-2010. There is also
51
problem from completeness of the data, there are many companies that do not
have complete data from 2002-2010 which result in discarding of the company
from the samples.
There also still another variables that could affect earning growth in
Indonesia that is still not included in this research. It is possible because earning
growth is also related to many different factors such as macro economic which
could related to inflation, currency change, and many others.
5.3 Recommendations
For future research, it is good to add some new variables. The earning
growth in the company can be affected by many external and internal factors. In
this research, all variables are considered as internal factors such as dividend,
return on asset, and debt. Earning yield could be considered as internal factor
because company can also issue good news to increase stock price. However,
there still many factors that can affect earning growth that can not be controlled
by company such as inflation and many more. Therefore, it is recommended to
add some macro economics variables or other external factors.
It is also recommended to do the research based on industry. Each industry
has different characteristic in the data. For example, banking industry has different
company structures which might be better to be researched on banking sector
alone. Other industries such as agriculture and construction might also have
different company structure that could result in different correlation for each
sector. Therefore, it is possible to do research on each classified industry.
52
REFERENCES
53
54
55
Sekaran, U., & Bougie, R. (2009) Research Methods for Business: A Skill
Building Approach, 5th edition. West Sussex: John Wiley and Sons Ltd.
Skinner, D.J. (2006) The Evolving Relation Between Earnings, Dividends, and
Stock Repurchases, Working Paper, University of Chicago
Sloan, R.G (1996) Do Stock Price Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and
Cash Flows About Future Earnigs?, The Accounting Review, vol. 71, no.
3, pp. 289-315
Vivian, A. (2006) The Payout Ratio, Earning Growth Returns : UK Industry
Evidence, Working Paper, School of Economics, Finance and Business,
University of Durham.
Wald, J.K (1999) How Firm Characteristics Affect Capital Structure : An
International Comparison, The Journal of Financial Research. vol. 22,
pp. 161-187
Zhou, P., and Ruland, P. (2006) Dividend Payout and Future Earnings
Growth,
Financial Analysts Journal, vol. 62, pp. 58-69
eg
payout
roa
debt
56
size
per
ag
Mean 0.300
Media
0.151
n
Std.
12.954
2.952
0.000
0.112
0.783
-0.389 9.387
Deviati 0.695
21.560
5.564
1.000
1.000
0.181
82.618 1.000
1.000
0.033
on
Varian
ce
Minim
um
Maxim
0.483
9.089
-0.819 -0.761
12.192 0.000
0.000
0.014
11.119 1.306
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized
Standardized
Model
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
57
Coefficients
Beta
Sig.
(Constant)
-.006
Payout
-1.544
roa
2.318
debt
3.404
e
-.488
size
.433
per
.573
ag
.096
a. Dependent Variable: eg
.046
.771
.669
1.529
.330
.766
.266
.265
-.844
1.792
1.778
-.604
.433
.446
.091
58
-.123
-2.002
3.466
2.226
-1.478
.566
2.158
.364
.922
.295
.179
.269
.379
.672
.276
.778
207
.0000000
.81981368
.091
.091
-.057
1.306
.066
Mean
Std. Deviation
Absolute
Positive
Negative
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
a. Test distribution is Normal.
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
Std. Error
(Constant)
payout
Coefficients
Beta
.610
.038
Sig.
16.051
.000
-.006
.039
-.012
-.166
.869
roa
.023
.043
.043
.540
.590
debt
-.032
.043
-.058
-.744
.458
-.013
.040
-.023
-.313
.754
size
-.073
.040
-.134
-1.853
.065
per
.024
.038
.045
.637
.525
ag
-.027
.042
-.050
-.646
.519
Model Summaryb
Model
1
R Square
.573a
.328
Adjusted R
Square
Estimate
.304
59
.83411
Durbin-Watson
2.021
ANOVAb
Model
1
Sum of Squares
Regression
df
Mean Square
67.549
9.650
Residual
138.451
199
.696
Total
206.000
206
Sig.
.000a
13.870
Coefficientsa
Standardize
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Coefficients
Collinearity Statistics
Std.
Model
(Constant
Error
.000
.058
Beta
Sig. Tolerance
-.004
.997
VIF
)
payout
-.058
.059
-.058
-.979
.329
.966
1.035
roa
.313
.066
.313
4.743
.000
.776
1.289
debt
.168
.065
.168
2.581
.011
.794
1.259
.430
.061
.430
7.000
.000
.895
1.117
size
.039
.060
.039
.649
.517
.931
1.075
per
-.002
.058
-.002
-.028
.978
.991
1.009
ag
.009
.065
.009
.138
.890
.809
1.237
a. Dependent Variable: eg
60