p.

Is ISIS Winning?

KurtVolker:Uh,goodevening.Uh,mynameisKurtVolker.Ihavethehonorof
servingastheExecutiveDirectorofTheMcCainInstitute,andthankyouallforcoming
thisevening.
Wearedelightedtobe,uh,kickingoffourDebateandDecisionSeriesagainthisfall,uh,
withthetopicof,"IsISISWinning?"AndIthinkyou'llfindthat,uh,tobeaninteresting
andentertainingandinformativedebatethatwehaveforyou,uh,thisevening.You've
heardalotaboutTheMcCainInstituteinthis,uh,videothatyoujustsaw.
Uh,oneofthethingsthatIknowyoujustheardwasanintroductionofourNext
GenerationLeadersProgram.Andtogiveitalittlebitmoredetail,thisisiden,helping
toidentify,train,network,andempoweragroupofalreadyaccomplishedemerging
leadersfromaroundtheworldandtheUS,andhelpingworkwiththemonindividual
actionplanstobringaboutpositivechangeinthefuture.
AndournewclassofNextGenerationLeadershappenstobewithusthisevening.Soif
youwouldjustwaveorsayhello,uhherefrom,uh...
[applause]
Kurt:...fromanumberofdifferentcountries,fivecontinents.Thefourthclassthatwe've
hadhere.Sothankyouverymuch.IalsoseeourPolicyDesignStudio,uh,studentshere
aswell.We'redelightedtohaveyouandlotsofotherfriendsandsupportersofThe
McCainInstitutefromallover,so,uh,we'redelightedthatyou'rehere.
Uh,thetermsofthisdebate,uh,thisismeanttobeatimedandstructured,uh,debate.It
isnota,uh,uh,partisandebate,wehope,butreallyonethatgetstothesubstanceofthe
issues.Uh,eachsidegetsafairopportunitytopresentacase,torebutacase,andthen,in
responsetoquestionsandanswers,they'llhave,uh,fixedamountoftime.
It'saboutfourminutesopeningstatements,twotorebut,andthen,inresponsetoa
question,eachsidecanhaveabouttwominutestorespondtothat.Butwedowantitto
beinteractiveanddynamic.
Uh,therewillbeanopportunityfortheaudiencetoaskquestions.Whenthatopportunity
comes,please,uh,dobebrief.Pleasedomakeitaquestion.Iknowit's,it'stempting
sometimestocommentonsomeoftheprovocativethingsyoumayhaveheard,butplease
domakeitaquestionandwe'llfeedthatbackintoandhearfromourpresentersthatare
here.
Uh,also,wedoencourageyoutotweet,totakepictures,tolivestream,whateveryou
wannado.Uh,thereisWiFihereandthenetworkandthepasswordareonthebackof

p.2

theprogram.Andthehashtag,uh,is#MIDebate.Sofeelfreetousethat.Logintothe
WiFi.Tweetalongtheway.
Togetourdebategoingthisevening,uh,wehaveavery,uh,goodanddearfriendof
mine.WeservedattheNationalSecurityCounciltogether.Hehadpreviouslybeenatthe
USDepartmentoftheTreasury.Uh,he'stheauthorofabook,"Treasury'sWar."He'sa
formerDeputyNationalSecurityAdvisorforCounterterrorism.
Uh,youmayhaveseenhimasacommentatoronCBS,andhe'snowalso,uh,managed
todevelopaverysuccessfulbusiness,uh,uh,workingintheareasof,uh,
counterterrorismandcompliancewith,uh,US,uh,counterterrorismrequirementsofthe
financialarea.SoletmeintroduceJuanZarate.Thankyou.
[applause]
JuanZarate:Goodevening,everybody.Forthoseofyouwhohavemanagedtocometo
theNavyMemorial,welcomeandthankyoufortakingtimewithus.Forthosewatching
onlineandperhapswillwatchlater,welcometothisdebate.
UhfirstthingIwanttosayiswe'reamongfriendshere,eventhoughisgoingtobecomea
heateddebate.IcountAmbassadorVolkerasaveryclosefriendandcolleague.I'm
honoredtobehere,andIwanttothankyouandtheMcCainInstituteforinvitingmeto
moderateamongsuchdistinguishedexperts.
IalsowanttothankLiz,uh,FontaineandArizonaStateUniversityforalltheworkthat's
happening,uh,alltheworkthatwejustheardabout.GoSunDevils.
[laughter]
Juan:IalsowanttogiveashoutouttoourNavybrethrenwhoarehere.Uh,wearein
theNavyMemorial.It'sgoodtorememberandrecognizethesacrificeofthosewho
servedintheNavy.Myfatherservedasanavalsurgeon.I'malwaysproudofthat.So,
welcome.
Wehaveaprovocativequestion.IsISISwinning?Insomeways,itseemslikeavery
simplequestion,butifyouunwrapit,itisfilledwithsomefundamentalquestionsand
issues.After15years,post9/11,istheUnitedStatesanysafer?Isterrorismgrowing
moredangerous?Andasit'smostviolentandobviousmanifestationinISISthathas
establishedasocalledcaliphateintheheartoftheMiddleEast,isitwinningand
expanding?
Aretheeffortstoconstrainiteffective?Areweconstrainingitsabilitytonotonlyreach
beyondtheMiddleEastbutalsointothehomeland?We'vegotthreegraphicsforyou.
Andinthisdebate,I'daskyoutokeepanopenmind,becausedataandfactscanberead
indifferentways.
ButI'mgoingtostartyouoffwiththreegraphicstosetthetableforthedebate.Thefirst

p.3

isagraphicfromIHSConflictMonitorwhichshowsthelossofterritoryforISISinthe
redandthecrimsonfromJanuary2015toJuly2016.Thisintheheartofthecaliphate.
Itclearlylostterritory.They'velostleadership,personnel.Thenumberofforeignfighters
hastrickledaccordingtothe"WashingtonPost"fromaheightof2,000fightersper
monthtonowjust50.Theirpopularityappearstobewaninginmostpartsoftheworld.
Ifyougotothesecondgraphic,youseethatISISfinances,uh,whichhasfueledthe
most,uh,wealthyand,and,uh,andprosperousterroristorganizationinmodernhistory,
theirfinanceshasbeendecreased.And,th,theestimates,uh,vary,butaccordingtosome
estimates,theirmonthlybudgethasbeendecreasedbyatleast30percent.
Butifyougotoathirdgraphic,whichisalittlelessclear.Thiscomesfrom"TheNew
YorkTimes."Youseethatnotonlyisthegroupestablisheditselfwellbeyondthe
socalledcaliphate,butithasestablishedsocalledprovincesor[indecipherable06:19]in
placeslikeLibya,Egypt,andevenAfghanistan,andPakistan.
AndgroupslikeBokoHaramthatonceflewthebannerofAlQaedahavenowshiftedto
flythebannerofISIS.Andyousee,ofcourse,thequickeningofthepaceandtheseverity
ofsomeoftheirattackswellbeyondtheirprovincesandterritorialreachintotheheartof
Europe,eveninspiringattacksintheUnitedStates.
Sothequestionis,isISISwinning?It'snotasimplequestion.Nowletmeaskthe
audience,becausethisisparticipatory.LetmeaskyounotwhetherornotyouthinkISIS
iswinning,butwhetherornotyouthinkyouknowtheanswer.Startingthisdebate.
[laughter]
Juan:Soraiseyourhandifyouthinkyouhaveananswer.It'sOKifyoudo.OK,not
many.Ohgood,we'vegotanopenaudienceandsomeopenminds.I'mgonnaaska
differentquestionattheendofthedebate,sobeprepared.Putyourlisteningearson,and
let'sgetreadytogo.
Therearenobetterexpertsthanthefour,uh,expertswithustodaytodiscussthisissue.
Debatingonthesideofno,theargumentthatISISisnotwinningarePeterBergenand
DougOllivant.
PeterBergen,wellknowntoyouall.Awardwinningauthor.Uh,Peter'softeninthe
media,CNN,thevicepresidentoftheNewAmericafoundation.Authorofmanybooks,
includingthelatest,"TheUnitedStatesofJihad.InvestigatingAmerica'sHomegrown
Terrorism."A,awellrecordedexpertandsomeonewho,uh,isalwaysprovocative.
NextinisDougOllivant,uh,amilitaryveteran.Someone,uh,withwhomIservedand
whoservedintheWhiteHouse,who'sapartofthefutureofWarProjectatNew
America.He'salsoassociatedwithArizonaStateUniversity.He'samanagingpartner
andseniorVPatMantidInternational.

p.4

Ontheyesside,ISISiswinning,wehavetwoformidableexperts.Dr.SebastianGorka,
famousforhisbestsellingbooks,includinghislatestandhe'sagoodauthor.Hebrings
acopy"DefeatingJihad:TheWinnableWar."It'sgoodnews.
[laughter]
Juan:He'savicepresidentprofessorofstrategyinirregularwarfareattheInstituteof
WorldPolitics.Uh,youseehimfrequentlyonFoxNews,CNN,debatingwiththebest
andthebrightest.We'reluckytohavehimaswell.
Finally,lastbutsurelynotleast,isthehonorableMaryBethLong,MadameSecretary.
Uh,currentlytheCEOofMetisSolutions,anentrepreneurinherownright,butapolicy
expertrecognizedonbothsidesoftheisle.
Havingserved,uh,inherlaststintinthegovernmentastheAssistantSecretaryof
DefenseforInternationalAffairswhereIgotthehonorandhadtheprivilegeofworking
withher,inparticularoncounterterrorismissuesintheMiddleEast.
Thatisourdebatelineupandthisisourquestion.IsISISwinning?We'regoingtostart
withthenoanswer.We'regoingtoturntoDougtostartthedebate.Youhavefour
minutes.Thenwe'regoingtoturntotheyessideforfourminutes.Doug,thepanel's
yours.
DouglasOllivant:Thanksmuch,Juan.Thankyouallforcoming.Let'sbeclearwhat
we'redebatingtonight.Thequestionis,isISISwinning?NotareIslamicJihad'sgroups
onthedecline?OristhethreatofIslamicterrorismdeclining?Letalone,doestheUnited
StateshaveacoherentstrategyfortheMiddleEast?
We'redebatinganarrowtopic.Thefortunesofagroupthatfewof,tus,afewofushad
heardofbefore2014.ThedescendantsofAlQaedainIraqthatwasdefeatedduringthe
2007Iraqsurge.Solet'stakeahardlookatsomestubbornfactsaboutthisparticular
group.
InthepastcoupleofmonthsinIraq,onlygreaterMosulremainsunderISIScontrolwith
moreandmoreofthesurroundingvillagesfallingtotheIraqiArmyandKurdish
Peshmergaforceseveryweek.GeneralDavidPetraeusisontherecord,scoringthe
liberationofMosulbeforetheendoftheObamaadministrationasprobable,anopinion
sharedbyGeneralVotel,theCENTCOMcommander.
InSyria,thecityofManbij,importantbecauseitwasthehubforforeignfightersjoining
ISIS,felltocoal,acoalitionbackedKurdishandArabforces,andTurkishforces
respondedbycrossingthebordertoliberateJarabulus.
InLibya,ISISforceshavehadtofleethecityofSirteasacombinationofopposing
militiaforcesunitetoejectthem.Ofcourse,thisisjusttherecentpast.Again,backto
Iraq,aseriesofmajorcities,Tikrit,ortheUniversityofTikritreopenedinDecemberof
2015.

p.5

Baiji,Ramadi,FallujahhaveallbeenrecapturedbyIraqiforces.WhenIwaslastin
Baghdadinthespring,thetalkwasdefinitelyaboutwhen,notif,allofIraqcouldbe
liberated.
InSyria,PalmyrahasfallenintotheSyriangovernmentwhilefightingstillragesinDeir
ezZor.ISIShasnotgainedanynewterritoryinIraqandSyriasinceitseizedPalmyra
andRamadiinthesummerof2015,bothcitieswhichtheyhavesincelost.
Meanwhile,CNNreportsthatit'sgettingharderforISIStofinanceitswarmachinedue
toitsshrinkingterritoryanditscrippledoilbusiness,andit'scuttingitsfightersalariesin
half.Itappearsthere'sresponsetothisphysicaltightening.
TheFBIdirector,JamesComey,istestifyingthatISIShaslosttheabilitytoattract
peopleofthecaliphatefromtheUnitedStates.Theflowofotherfightersisalsosteeply
decliningwiththePentagonestimatingashighasa90percentreductioninforeign
fighterflow,joiningISISjustisn'twhatitusedtobe.
AndGeneralVotelhasnotedinthereadingfight,intherecentfightinginManbij,"Isis
fightersrefusedtoholdtheirgroundbutinsteadretreatedunderrelativelylightpressure."
TheonlyaspectinwhichISIShasgainedtractionhasbeenitssuicidebombersand
inspiredattacks.Butthisisatacticofweakness,notstrength.
Anorganizationthatonceaspiredtobe,infactnameditselftheoneandonlytrueIslamic
State,isnowapaleshadowofitsforeignselfandcanonlyrunrelativelysmallnetworks
intheslumsofvariousworldcities.
Now,aterroristbombingcampaignisobviouslyaproblem,butit'shardlythesituationin
2014whenthefallofBaghdadand[inaudible12:43]atleastseemedtobeliveissues.So,
no,ISISisnotwinning,notevenclose.It'slikelytoloseallitsterritoryinIraqbytheend
ofthiscalendaryear.
AndwhileSyriaismorecomplicated,variousforcescontinuetoeatawayofISIS'
territorythereaswell.ItsforcesinLibyaarebeingpushedfromthecoastlinesbackinto
thedesert.Theoncewealthygroupisnowlargelybroke.Ifthisiswinning,I'dhatetosee
whatlosinglookslike.
PeterBergen:Andjusttoaddto,uh,uh,Doug's,uh,presentation,justthisafternoon,
I'msureweallwillbepleasedtohearthatthecrucial,uh,cruciallystrategictownofTell
AbyadinSyriajustfellwhichwasheldbyISIS.AndAmericanflagnowfliesoverthis
town.
Uh,thisisveryimportantbecauseasDougmentioned,Manbijhasalreadyfallentothe
westofRaqqa,thedefactocapitalof,ofISISinSyria.Nowtothenorth,uh,there,this
othertownhasalsofallen.It'salwaysarealsignofwinningwhenyourowndefacto
capitalisbeingcircled.Youwillhearfromourfriendsontheothersidethatastringof
recentterroristattacksshowthatISISis,iswinning.

p.6

Butinfact,theseattacksarecontributingpreciselytowhyISISisn'twinning,andalso
ourfriendsarefallingintothetrapofbelievingISIS'ownpropagandathatthey're
winning.ISISistheIslamicState.Theyareageographicentity.Thatistheirmost
important,uh,sortofmatterofbeingandalsowhytheyattractedsomany,uh,foreign
fighters.
Now,theyattractedpowersinNovember2015.TheFrenchimmediatelyampeduptheir
airstrikesagainst,againstISIS.InJune2016,uh,the,uh,the,theISISattackedIstanbul
airport.Now,theTurkisharmyhasnowinvadedSyria.
Now,theTurkisharmyisnotsomeragtagKurdishmilitia.Thesearetanks.They,they
havecloseairsupport.They,theyhaveSpecialForces.TheyslicethroughISIS'lines
almostovernight.
So,ISISterroristattacksaroundtheworldareunderminingitsoverallstrategytoholdon
toterritoryandrulelikeastate,whichistocon,whichistoconfusetacticalsuccess
with,strategy,strategicvictory,whichispreciselywhatyou'regoingtohear,uh,from
ourfriendsonthisother,othersideofthedebatearegonnaconfuseyoufurtherwiththis
issue.
[laughter]
Juan:OK.So,allowustohearPeterBergen.Igavethemanextraminute.I'mgonna
giveyouanextraminute.
SebastianGorka:Thankyou.
Juan:Now,we'regoingtohearfromtheyesside,ISISiswinning,Dr.Gorka.
Sebastian:Thankyou,Mr.Chairman.IfIwereyou,Iwouldn'tbuyanystocksorshares
that,uh,Mr.Bergenpredictedforyouwouldbeincreasinginvalue,becausehedoesn't
infactlypredictwhatI'mgoingtotellyou.I'mgoingtotellyouadifferentstory.Whatis
ISIS?Let'slookatthefacts.ISISistheworld'sfirstcaliphateinthemodernagethat
actuallyholdsterritoryinmultiplecountriesofmultipleregions.
It'snotjustSyriaandIraq,orevenLibya.BokoHaramwasacceptedintothecaliphateof
AbuBakralBaghdadi,whichmeansNigerianterritoryunderBokocontrolisdefacto
apartofhiscaliphate.Wehavenevereverseenanyinsurgency,beitMarxist,beitjihadi,
oranyothertypeofinsurgencyholdterritoryinmultipletheatersatthesametime.
Yes,wehavesqueezedthemfinancially.Buteventhe"FinancialTimes"says,"ISIShas
aGDPof$500million."Ifyoulookatthe9/11commissionreportwhichstatestheattack
ofSeptemberthe11th15yearsagocostbarely$500,000.
ISISmakesthatinsixhours.Doyoufeelsafe?Weshouldn't.Notonlythat.Let'slookat
whatyourgovernmenthasrecordedjustthreeweeksago.Thepresidentwenttothe
PentagonforabigISISmeeting.TheNationalCounterterrorismCenterbriefedhimon

p.7

ISIS.Thisistheagencyforcounterterrorismanalysiswithintheofficeofthedirectorof
NationalIntelligence.
Themaptheyusedtobriefthepresidentmadeitoutintothepress.Andwhatdidthat
mapsay?AndIquotedirectly,"ISIStodayhas18fullyoperationalaffiliatesin18
nations."NotpeoplewhojustthinkISISiscoolandsworeBay'at,sworeloyalty.But
accordingtotheUnitedStatesIntelligenceCommunity,fullyoperational.
Now,if18outof200,isthatscary?Yes,itis,becausetheStateDepartmentdrewa
similarestimatejusttwoyearsago.Andthen,thenumberwasseven.ISIShasmorethan
doubleditsfullyoperationalaffiliatesinlessthan25months.
WhetherornotyoubelieveISISiswinningwillboildowntotwoquestions.Areyou
oldfashioned?Doyouthinkaboutstrategyinan18thcenturyway?Doyoumeasure
winningjustbytownscapturedortownslost?Orisitmorethanthat?Isitperhaps
ideologicalasmycolleaguewilldiscuss?
Andthesecondquestionisamuchmoreimportantone.Itisamoralquestion.Canyou
answerthisquestionofwhetherISISiswinningornotbasedonsolelyuponthelivesof
Americans?SyriaisinextricablylinkedtoISIS.Thatconflicthascausedthelivesof
between400,000and500,000peopleinfiveyears.Dowewritethemoffasforeigners,as
Muslims,asShia,asSunni?Oristhatdeathtollalsosomethingweshouldcareabout.
Ihandovermylastminutetomytagteamcolleague,MaryBeth.
[laughter]
Juan:WWF.
MaryBethLong:Peterwasrightaboutonething.Um,thecaliphatecertainlyearlyon
announcedthatitwouldholdterritoryanditwouldrepresentitselfastheideological
underpinningofwhattrueIslamis.
Thegeographyisimportant,butthemoreimportantaspectofthatistheideological,the
religiousties,thefactthatfortherecruits,theindividualsassociatedwiththismovement
areattractedtoitsideology.Theideologythatmakesthemactincertainways,the
influence.
YouonlyneedtoaskyourselfthefollowingquestionstofigureoutwhetherISISis
winning.Ifyou'vebeeninMonteCarlolastweeklikeIwas,youwalkedthestreets,you
wenttotheshops,andyouwenttothehotels,andyouwenttotherestaurants,andthey
wereempty,andyouaskedtheholders,"Why?"
Andtheysaid,"BecauseofwhathappenedinKhan.We'reterrified."Thepeopleand
theirgovernmentshavelostthefaiththatourabilityinoursecurityservicesandour
policecanidentifytheseISISlonewolves.

p.8

Anditdoesn'tmatterwhetherthey'vepledgedthemselvestothecaliphate10minutes
beforehandorhavebeenworkingwithitfor10years.Thefactisthefearthatthey
thought,thedistraction,notonlytheimmediatedistraction,buttherealdamagethey're
doingtooureconomyhappenseveryday.
IfyouwenttoNice,thosestreetsarenearlyempty.Ifyouwalkdownthestreetsright
nowofGermany,youseepeoplecrossingthestreetbecausethepersonthatlookslikehe
orshemaybeIslamic,maybeanimmigrant,representsadanger.
ISISiswinning'causeit'spollutedourminds.It'spollutedwhatwedowithourmoney.
It'spollutedwhatwedoeverydaywithourcars,withourvacations,andeverythingelse.
Didyouknowthattherehadbeena110Americanstapped?And,andthattheFBIhas
saidthat60percentofthoseare15to25yearsoldwhowereinspiredonlinebythe
caliphate.
Thecaliphatemaynotbesittinginthatvillage,andmayhaveleftthatvillagefortactical
support.ButwheretheyareisontheInternet.Wheretheyareistwitteringandtweeting.
Andthey'vegotanamazingmagazinethatisinspiringpeopleallovertheglobe.
Theyhaveacaliphatecubswherechildrenarebornintothecaliphatewillknownothing
otherthantheviolenceandthepurityofIslam,andwillgrowuptobewhat?Peoplethat
wecan'tevencommunicatewith.
Wedon'tevenhaveastrategytoconfrontthat.Howcanyousaythatwe'reevenonthe
battlefieldoftheideologicalfightagainstISIS?Attheendoftheday,that'sthefightthat
matters.Andwe'renotevenonthebattlefield.ISISiswinningtheimportantfight.And
that'sthefightoflegitimacy.
Juan:Thankyouverymuch.Igaveyoubothsomeleeway.I'mgonnabeless,uh,gentle
inthenext,uh,round.Now,we'regoingtogotothesegmentoftwominutequestions.
I'mgonnaposequestionstoeachside.
Letmegoto,uh,PeterandDougfirst.Howdoyouaddressthisissueofthe,thereal
problembeingISISisreachedwhetheritbeontheInternet,withnewterritories
geographically,orevenideologically?Isn'tthatpartofthebattlefieldthatweneedto
consider?
Peter:Um,SebastianGorkamentionedthe18affiliates.So,alotoftheseaffiliatesare
peoplejustslappingthepatrons,sayingthatISISisjusttryingtobethebigbad,uh,
becauseit'sthebrandofthemoment.
Sebastian:Wrong.
[laughter]
Peter:Letmefinishup.Um,theonlyaffiliatethatISISreallykindofoperatesinakind
ofcommandandcontrolsenseinanyrealsenseistheISISaffiliateinLibya.Uh,that,uh,

p.9

that,uh,affiliatejustlostSirte,whichisamajorcitythattheyheld.It'sGaddafi's
birthplace.
Uh,they,infact,bytheway,it'stheLibyansthemselveshaveliberatedwithsome
Americanhelp.Uh,so,Ithinkthe,uh,affiliatesisabitofasortofsmokescreenthatis
beingputup.Um,andISISoverallhasamathproblem.Youknow,wehavekilled
45,000footsoldiersinISISaccordingtoSean,SeanMacFarlandwhorunstheantiISIS
coalition.
Foreignfightersnow,it'sjustnotaveryattractivethingtogotoSyriaandbekilledby
LatinAmericandrone.Uh,1,700,uh,foreignfightersamonth,nowdownto200.And,
um,MaryBethLongcorrectlypointedthatoutabouttheAmericanswho'vebeen
attracted.But,youknow,thenumbershavegonefromsixamonththroughwe'retrying
togotooneamonth.
Andwehaven'thadasingleISIStrainedmilitantcomebackheretotryanddoanything.
We'vehadabouteightpeoplewho'vecomeback,sevenofthemareinjailandoneis
dead.
So,youknow,youhavetolookatthenumbersifyou'retalkingaboutwinningorlosing.
Attheendoftheday,afterall,warsareaboutattrition.Andwehaveputanenormous
amountofpressureonthisgroup.
Douglas:That'sright.Look,BokoHaramisproblem.ButisBokoHaramreallyany
differenttodayISISaffiliatedthanitwasthreeyearsago,AlQaedaaffiliated?
Now,there'sstillabunchofnastyofpeoplewhodaretodonastythingsontheirterritory.
Butthefactthatyouchangedthebrandunderwhichyou'reoperatingdoesn'tmakeyou
anydifferent,Likewise,theaffiliateinAfghanistan,abunchofnastypeople,very,very
strongly,Islamhasputonanewpatch,butthey'rereallynotdoinganythingterribly
differentthantheywerefouryearsago.
Juan:Thankyou.Oneminuterebuttal.
Sebastian:Uh,thankyouforwalkingstraightintomytrap.
[laughter]
Sebastian:Um,let'stalkaboutBokoHaram.Yousaid,theyjustchangedbrands.
They'renotdeadlyatall,it'stotallyirrelevant.Theychangedthelabelsonthedoors.
ButaccordingtoCFR,theCouncilonForeignRelations,beforeBokoHarambecamethe
WestAfricaprovinceoftheIslamicState,thecaliphateregionofNigeriain2013,it
killedatotalof1,008humanbeings.Thenextyear,itwasacceptedintothecaliphate.
AccordingtotheCouncilonForeignRelations,itkilledinthatyear3,425people.
Threetimesasmanybutitgetsworseayearlaterafterhavingbeenafullypaidout

p.10

memberofISISfor12months.In2015,BokoHaram,oneofthedeadliestjihadigroups
today,whichispartoftheIslamicState,killedmorethan11,000peopleaccordingtothe
CouncilonForeignRelations.Everyyear,athreefoldincrease.Youjudge.
Juan:Thankyou.Now,aquestiononthisside.Whatabouttheveryimportantpointthat
wemade,thisisagroupthathasn'tdemonstratedtheabilitytoreachintothehomelandor
westwardinasignificantway?
Uh,it'sbeenableperhapstoinspire,butnottolauncha9/11styleattackorasignificant
seriesofstrategicattacksthatwouldimpacttheUnitedStatesdirectly.Howdoyou
addressthat?
MaryBeth:I'llstartonthatone.Um,I'moffendedbytheideathatapparentlywe're
goingtojudgewhetheratransnational,uh,terroristgroupreallyonlyaccountsifit's
killedalotofAmericans,Ithinkapointthatyoumadeadequately,um,numberone.
Numbertwo,withallduerespecttomycolleagues,we'restilltalkingaboutphysical
geography,andthat'swhatthismovementisn'tabout.Mr.Bergenand,uh,ourdear
friendsstilltalkaboutwhypeoplearen'tgoingtoSyriaanymore.Ofcourse,they'renot.
Becauseayearago,thecaliphatecamerightoutandsaid,"Don'tcometoSyriaanymore.
Staywhereyouare.Affectyourterrorrightthereanddoterrorathome,"anditcanbe
littleactsbecauseit'sthelittleactsthatinspirethefearineverybody,thegrassroots.And
that'sexactlywhat'sbeendone.
Andyoucan'targuethatISIShasn'tbeeneffectiveintheWestwhenyoulookatwhat
happenedinGermany,inTurkey,inFrance,inOrlando,inSanBernardino.Thatcounts.
Theslaponthebackcounts.Theseareindividualswhoinspired,whowereinspiredby
ISIS.
IfyouwenttoSanBernardino,ISISwasdelightedandfeaturedintheirmagazinethefact
thatthecoupleinSanBernardino,thecri,didthathorrificact,hadapictureoftheircrib
withtheirnoworphandaughter.AndthatwasfrontandcenteronDabiqmagazines.
Why?Becausetheywereproudofit,becausetheywereinspiredbyISIS.AndISISused
thisaspropagandatosee,"Look,whatthiscoupledidinUnitedStates.You,too,should
sacrificeeverythingforthiscause."Howcanyousaythatwe'rewinningagainstthat?
Juan:10seconds.
Sebastian:Whatifyou'reprosaic?Whatifyou'repedestrian?Whatifyou'rean
isolationist?WhatifyouonlycareaboutAmericans?Well,howaboutthis?
Ofthe110peoplewehavearrestedwhokilledinAmericasincethecaliphatewas
declaredtwoyearsago,thoseindividuals,ifyouproratethearrestsbymonth,weare
intercepting300percentmoreISISterroristsinAmericathanthehighestAlQaeda
averageformonthlyarrests,300percentmore.It'sjustdata.Youdecide.

p.11

Peter:That'sbecausetheFBIisdoingafabulousjob,youknow.They'rearrestingalot
ofpeopleandalotofthese...
Sebastian:Orthey'rerecruitingmoreofthem,Peter.Youdecide.
Peter:Well,there'salsotheissueofstingoperation.ButpointistheFBIisalloverthis
likeawetblanket.And,andthat'sthereason,youknow,the63deaths...
Sebastian:Arewefollowingprotocol,Mr.Chairman?
Juan:Yes.It,itistheoneminuterebuttal.
[laughter]
Peter:Butpleasekeeponinterrupting,Sebastian,becauseit'sseemstobemore
interesting.
[crosstalk]
Sebastian:...inthekitchen,Peter.YouknowwhatI,theysay.
Peter:OK.
Juan:Goahead,Peter.
Peter:SanBernardinoandOrlando,obviouslygreattragedy.63Americanswerekilled
byISISinspiredterrorists.Um,butthesearenotnationalcatastrophesonthescaleof
9/11orevenofParis.
Uh,andofcourse,MaryBethmentionedthat,uh,Dabiqiscelebratingthisintheir
propaganda.Well,Idon'tthinkeverybodyintheaudiencewillfallintothetrapof
believingISIS'propagandaonthispointthatsomehowthismeansthey'rewinning.
Yes,they'regettingsomesmalltacticalvictories,butwe,uh,going,goingbacktothe,
um,SebastianmentionedhowmanypeopleBokoHaramhaskilled.Wehavekilledfar
morepeopleinsideISIS,45,000thanBo,BokoHaramhaseverdoneinNigeria.
We'veinflictedagreatdealofdamageonthisgroup.Webasicallydestroyedtheir
financesaswesawearlier.There's,they'vehalvedthesalariesoftheirfighters.Uh,you
know,ISISisjust,ifwehadthisdebatein2014,in,insummerof2014,uh,Imeanit
wouldhavebeenabsurdtohavethisdebate.
But,ofcourse,ISISwaswinningthen.Butnow,it'sequallyabsurdtopretendthey're
winningtoday.They'relosing.
Juan:Letmeaskthenafollowupquestion.Howdoyouaddresstheeffectofthe
perceptionofISIS'reachinterrortoapointmadeearlier?Isn'tthe,thereachandthe

p.12

psychologyofterrorismhavinganimpact?Andisn'tISISdrivingthataswespeak?
Douglas:Theyaredrivingitbecausewe'relettingthemshiftthegoalpost.Look,the
wholepointofIslamicStatewastobeastate.We'renotclaimingthattheirterritoryis
importantbecausewe'reoldfashioned.
We'reclaimingtheirterritoryisimportantbecausetheysaiditwasimportant.Thiswas
theprimarydifferencebetweentheIslamicStateandAlQaeda.Theysaid,"No,no,no.
That's,that'spiddlystuff.Youdon'tdolittleitsybitsyattacksandhopethatthecaliphate
comesaboutsomeday.Youdeclareithere,andyoumakeit,andyouhaveterritory."
What'sISISdoingnow?Doinglittlepiddlyattacksandhopingthatthecaliphatecomes
somedaybecausetheircoreterritoryisdisappearing.Now,istheAlQaedastrategy
working?That'satotallydifferentquestion.That'snotwhatwe'redebating.
IstheISISstrategyofholdingterraininthecaliphateworking?No,they'rebeing
squeezedallthetimeandlosingterritoryeveryday.
Juan:Youactuallyhavemoretimeifyou'dlike,Peter.
Peter:No,Ithinkthepointwaswellmade.
Juan:Rebuttal.
Sebastian:Littlepiddlingattacks?TellthattotheFrenchofNice.Tellthattothefamily
ofthepolicecommanderwhowasbeheadedathomewithhiswife.Tellthattothepeople
ofSanBernardinoandOrlando.
Thesearenotpiddling.Thisisadifferentformofwarfare.ISIShaslearntfromthe
mistakesofAlQaeda.AlQaedawastoosuccessful,toosuccessfulonSeptember11th.It
painteditselfintothecornerbecauseitkilled3,000peopleina102minutesthereforeit
hadtogospectacularagainandagainandagainandfailedbecausespectaculardeathis
hardtodowithoutweaponsofmassdestruction.
ISIShasproventhefirstruleofinsurgency.Beflexible,beadaptive.Theyaredoing
classicguerrillawarfareonthestreetsofFlorida,onthestreetsofCalifornia,inParis,in
Brussels,inDhaka,Bangladesh.
It'snotaboutspectacleofgargantuanproportion.Itis,asPetersaid,aboutattrition.It's
aboutthefactthattherestaurantownerisabsolutelybankruptbecausethetouristsaren't
goingtoCannes.Thatwillkillyouasathousandcutswillkillyou.
Juan:Letmeallowaquickrebuttal.
Peter:Becausewehadalittlebitofextratime,againIthinkSebastian'smakingour
pointbyhimself,whichisthattheseattacks,yes,they'resuccessfulonatacticallevel.
130peoplediedinParis.ItwasaterrifictragedyforParis.ItwastheFrench9/11.But

p.13

theFrenchwerealreadyinvolvedinthecoalitionandampeduptheirairstrikesvery,very
strongly.
Again,whentherewasanattackinIstanbultheTurkisharmyinvadedSyria.These
tacticalsuccessesyoucan'tconfusethemwithastrategicvictory.Thestrategicvictory
wascontrollingtheterritorythesizeoftheUnitedKingdominSyriaandIraq.Theyjust
lost50percentofthatinthelastyear.IfthisiswiningI'dhatetoseewhatlosinglooks
like.
Juan:MaryBeth,beforeIgiveyouthefloor,letmeaddanewquestion,becauseIthink
thequestionof,"IsISISwinning?"canalsobeaquestionoftrajectoryofwherewearein
theconflictatanypointintime,andwe'reaskingitin2016.
HowdoyoudealwiththefactthatthetrajectoryforISISgivenallofthemarkersseemto
beindecline,numbersofforeignfighters,uh,approachingthecaliphate,amountof
territoryheld,funding,uh,thattheyhold,evenTwitteraccountsthatareactive?
Howcanyoudealwiththe,thequestionofthetrajectory,whichdoesnotlookgoodin
comparativetermsforISIS?
Peter:Greatquestion.
MaryBeth:Andthat'sbecauseyou'remeasuringthewrongthing.
[laughter]
Sebastian:Mmhmm.
MaryBeth:You'remeasuringthewrongthings.Doesanybodyinthisroomthinkthat
we'regoingto,withtheFrenchincreasingtheairstrikes,orifwetakeover99ofthe100
villagesinIraqorSyria,thatthat'sgoingtomakeISISgoaway?Doesanybodyinthis
roomthinkthatotherthanthepeoplesittingoverhere?
[laughter]
MaryBeth:That'sjustnotthewaywarisconductedanymore,andit'snottheway
they'reconductingtheirwar.Andyes,they'vebeentactical.They'vechangedtheir
strategy.They'vechangedtheirname.They'vechangetheiremphasis.
It'snotrecentthattheytoldpeople,"StopcomingtoSyria.Gohome.Doyourattacksat
home,"andit'sbeeneffective.Whereisthisgoing?Yes,wecan,wecansaythey'renot
gettingasmuchmoneyfromoil.Guesswhat?They'renowowningcardealerships.By
theway,in,inIraq,uh,fishingfarms,so,someestimatesofwhichthey'regetting
millionsofdollarsamonthfromfishingfarmsalone.
Theywillreplacethemoney.And,oh,bytheway,thepeopleweren'tgoingthere
becausetheywerelookingtomakebigbucksanyway.There'snot,littleevidencethatthe

p.14

cutinsalarieshasmadepeopleleave.
Well,they'renotgoingholdterritory.Whenthisadministrationmadeitsdecisionto
departIraqnoonehadevenheardofISIS.Noonecared.Theyknewtherewerethese
guysouttherethatwerestillsortofdangerous,thatwereformerBaathists,buttheydidn't
representanythingapproachingconceivablylikethisthreat,andlookatwherewearetwo
yearslater.Justtwo.
Oh,yes,uh,they'renotgettingalotofforeignfightersintothearea.Welltheyshu,
practicallyshutthemoffthemselvesayearago.Ofcoursethey'renot.Butlookatthe
spectaculartransmission,theirinspirationofwhatthey'redoingthathasgoneglobalina
year.Inayear.
Andnowwe'rewillingtotakethismomentintimeandsay,"Well,look,there'sthese
indicatorsthatwe'reusedto.Thesearethetraditionalindicatorsofwar,anditlookslike
they'relosing."They'renotlosing.They'vegotsome30,000womenheldhostageintheir
caliphatewhoarepregnantwithwhat?Cubsofthecaliphate.Theyareteaching.They
haveclassroombooksthatcountone,two,three,fourfiveandthealphabetthattiethose
tothenumberofbulletsandmines.
They'rethefirstrealIslamicterrorismgroup,thatfromtheverybeginneraregonnagrow
fightersthatwillleashedupontheworldfromthebeginningwhowillknownothingbut
theirdistortedbrutalunbaseablereligiousinterpretationofwhatitistheywant,this
violence.
Thesepiddlylittleacts...
Juan:MaryBeth.
MaryBeth:...theyarehorriblyviolent.Excuseme.
Juan:No,it'sallright.
MaryBeth:Soaretheywinning?Yes.No,ifyouwanttocountthethingsthatdon't
matter.Butifyoudowanttocountthethingsthatmatter,it'sobvious.
Juan:Rebuttal.
Douglas:Ouropponentsareonceagainmakingourcaseforit,uhforus.30,000women
carryingcubsofthecaliphateisarealproblemthatyoucanonlydoifyouholdterritory.
Youcan'thold30,000womenhostageifyou'rejustrunningterroristcellsoutofthesub,
uhoutofthesuburbsofParisandBrussels.
Thisiswhythisisimportant.Youcan'tdothis.Yes,youknow,piddlyattacksmaybea,
youknow,anunkindwaytocharacterize500deaths,butISISisabletokillscoresof
peopleinMosulandRaqqaonarelativelydailybasisifyoureadwhatthey'redoing.

p.15

TheyarekillingpeopleonthescaleoftheseEuropeanattacksonadailybasisinthese
cities.Ifwetaketheircitiesawayfromthem,ifwetaketheirterritoryaway,thentheyare
onceagainagardenvarietyterroristgroupthatisaproblem.
MaryBeth:Doyouthinkthey'rejustgoingtoquit?
Sebastian:[laughs]Well,clearly.
Douglas:We'regoingtokillthem.
Sebastian:They'rejustgoingtobefoundandthey'renevergoingtoescape.
Douglas:Butit,wearewegoingtoget...SothegroupformallyknownastheIslamic
State,ortheoncewasIslamicState,orthe,theonceandfutureIslamicState,it'sjustnot
goingtohavethesameringastheIslamicState.
Sebastian:BecausewedefeatedAlQaedaandthenwewonthewar,correct?
Juan:Let,letmeposeanotherquestionandit,itdovetailsneatly.Howdoyoudealwith
therealitythatifterritoryissoimportantthisisagroupthatnotonlyhasestablished
territorybutbeenable,hasbeenabletoholdrealurbanenvironments,thesecondlargest
cityinIraq,forovertwoyearswithaccesstocitizens,tobanksandmoneyservice
businesses,tolabsandscientists,eventoprovethatitcangovern?
The,thevastmajorityofthevideosfromtheIslamicStateareaboutitsabilityto
govern...
MaryBeth:Govern.
Juan:...asopposedtobeheadingsandotherviolentacts.Sohowdoyoudealwiththat
partoftheargument?Thisisagroupthathasheldsignificantterritoryandcontinuestoin
thefaceofacoalitiononslaughtfromtheworld'ssuperpower.
Peter:Forus?
Juan:Please.
Peter:Yeah,Imeanthisaveryimportantpoint.It'stheIslamicState.Er,muchoftheir
propagandaisaboutwhatagreatsocietythey'vecreated.Wellinfact,ifyougoonline
youcanseetheoppositiongroups,uh,there'snoelectricity,there'sbreadlines.Theyare
notgoverninglikeastate,and,er,it'sbeenahugefiasco.
Um,butjusttosetthetermsoftheargumentagaintheIslamicState,that'swhattheycall
themselves,theyweren'tcalledtheIslamicStatebefore.TheywerecalledAlQaedain
Iraqandvariousothernames.Theyarethecal,they,AbuBaghdadisaidhewasthe
caliph.NowthelasttimeacaliphateexisteditwastheTurkishEmpire,aratherlarge
geographicalentitythattook...wasmuchoftheMiddleEast.Thisiswhattheywanttobe.

p.16

Our,ouropponentsarefallingintothetrapofbelievingISIS'sownpropaganda.The
reasonthey'reencouragingtheseattacksintheWestisnotbecausethey'redoingwell,but
becausethey'vegotnoth,there'snothingleftintheirquiver.Whatthey'retryingtodo,
tryingtoachieveintheMiddleEasthasgonedisastrouslybadly,andthere'sawayof
measuringthisratherwell.
IfyoulookatISISpropagandatodayit'sfullofchildsoldiers.It'sfullofchildsuicide
attackers.Nowthisisnotasignofstreng,ofstrength.Thisisasignofweakness.Thisis
reminiscentofchildsoldiersusedbyHitlerattheendofWorldWarII.They'regoingout
ofbusiness,andtheyknowit.
And,um,one,andthatastheydiethey'retryingtoperformontheworldstageandsay,
"Hey,we'restillpowerfulandimportant."It'sacharade,andifyoubelieve,uh,the,our
opponentsyou'reliterallyfallingintotheISIS'sownpropagandatrap.
Juan:Oneminuterebuttal.
Sebastian:Wellifwe'refallingintothepropagandatrapofISISthenyouknowwhat?
SoistheAmericanintelligencecommunity.IcanbutrepeattheNational
CounterterrorismCentersaidtherearenow18fullyoperational,notoneofthese,fully
operational.Thereareanother23affiliatesthataren'tunderoperationalcontrol.
Soifyouraccusationisthatthebestintelligencecommunityintheworldisfalling,prop,
forpropagandathat'sanotherthingwecandebate.Uh,ontheissueof,ofterritoryagain,
ourcolleaguesarefallingintosuchan18thcenturymindset.Thisisn'ttheSomme.This
isn't,uhtheBattleoftheBulge.
Thisisanewkindofwarfare,andtojudgeitbythemetricsofthe19th,even20th
century,willleadustocontinueseeagrowthinthisglobaljihadimovementwhich,yet
again,allIcansayarethefacts,isrecruitingthreetimesasmanyjihadisonUSterritory
thanAlQaedaeverdid.
That'sadatapointthatisnotpropagandaoutofISIS.It'sfederalandstatearrestrecords.
MaryBeth:Theotherthingisweaswesternersinterprettheuseofchildren,um,and
fromourpointofviewwhichis,whichrelatesverymuchtoourculturalheritage.The
factofthematterchildrenhavebeenusedinwarbytheBritish,bytheAmericans,bythe
Mamelukesforcenturies.
Um,andit's,it'snotapointofweakness.It'sapointofstrategy,andintheircasethe
strategyisIwillhavethebetterforeignfighter,orIwillhavethebetterindigenous
fighterbybringingthispersonupinpureIslam.PureIslambeingtheIslamthatIam
advocatingasthisviolentextremistIslam.
It'snotaweakness.It'sactuallyaverydifferentapproachtowhatisthebasicdesignfrom
toptobottomofthesoldierthattheybelieve,um,justifiesand,andisarepresentativeof

p.17

theirexistence.It'sahugedanger.It'snotaweakness,it'snotbecausethey'rerunningout
ofadults,believeus.
Juan:MaryBethandSebastian,letmeaskyouthis,though.Isn'tpartofthecalculus,in
termsofnotjusttheperceptionofwho'swinningorlosing,butalsoreactiontoterrorism
aquestionofourownresponseandperhapsevenoverreaction?
ThequestionofwhetherornotthisisasimportantathreattotheUnitedStatesas,uh,
the,thequestionwouldsuggest,whetherornotISISisactuallyanexistentialthreatasthe
Presidenthassaidhimself.Soisn'tthisreallyanissue...
MaryBeth:IsthisafterhesaidtheJVteamthing?
[laughter]
Sebastian:ThreedaysbeforeSanBernardino.
Juan:Sothe,thequestionisisn'tthislargelyaquestionofhowwereacttowhatthey're
doing,andwhetherornotweoverreact,andisn'tthatapartofthecalculus?
Sebastian:In,inirregularwarfare,whichiswhat,uh,ISISisfollowing,itisoneofthe
bestapproaches.Youwishedtheenemygovernmenttobeprovokedintooverreaction.
WesawthiswithIRA,withFARC.Youwishthemtooverreactbecausethenwhat
happensisyoufulfilltheirnarrativeandthentheygetmorerecruitssowehavetobe
cautionshere.
But,again,um,Idon'tsee,lookingattheworldasinagrandstrategicperspective,there
arenootherexistentialthreatsoftheilkoftheISISthreatalliedwiththeotherversionof
thecaliphate,whichisIran.Russiaisaproblem,Iranisaproblem,er,but,butmostly
thesearespoilers.Thesearepeople,ChinaisnotgoingtogotowarwithAmerica.They
haveoneaircraftcarrier.Wehave12.Wouldn'tbeverysmart.
Butifyouhaveanenemywhoisdetermined,whorecruitschildrenfromthe,fromthe
momenttheyareborntheyhaveagameplanthatisn'taboutthenextquarter,thenext
PowerPointbriefIhavetogive.It'snotevenaboutnextyear.
It'samillennialplan.IfIdefeatyouina100yearsthat'sexcellent.Ifyou,ifyousqueeze
meoutofIraqandImoveintoAfricaorAsiaortheCaucusesthat'sfine.IfIdefeatyou
in500yearsthat'sjustdandy.
Soweshouldn'toverreact,butweshouldunderstandtheenemyhasaverydifferentsense
oftime.
Peter:AswetalkaboutmilitarystrategyIthoughtit'dbehelpfultonoteDoug's
backgroundaslieutenantcolonelwhowrotetheBaghdadSecurityPlanin2007for
GeneralPetraeusduringtheSurgeandalsoservedasaseniorcounterinsurgencyadvisor
ineasternAfghanistan.

p.18

SoI'llletDougchimeinonthemilitary,uh,kindofdebatewe'rehavinghere,uh,and
justgivehisassessmentofhowISISisdoing.
Douglas:Look,again,irregularwarfareisimportantbutifyoudon'tthinkterrainisn't
importantinirreg,inirregularwarfareyou'veneverdoneit.Terrainstillmatters.It's
importantbecausepeoplelivethere.
Andyes,enemiescandovariousthingswithit,andtheycanreactasymmetrically,and
sometimesbeingincontrolcanbeavulnerability,butirregularwarfareisatacticof
weakness.Youonlyuseitwhenyou'reweak.Um,that'stherealproblem.
Veryquicklywithchildsoldiers,thisisnotparticularlywithISIS.Thisisdoneby
everyonewho'srunningoutofpeople.WeseethiseverywhereinSyria.Nusraisusing
childsoldiers.[indecipherable47:06]Shamisusingchildsoldiers.TheFreeSyrianArmy
isusingchildsoldiers.
Hezbollahisstartingtodrivedowntheage,notquitechildsoldiers,butcertainlyearly
teensoldiers.EveryoneinSyriaisrunningoutofpeople.They'reallusingchildsoldiers.
ThisisnotsomethinguniquetoISIS.It'swhatyoudowhenyoustartrunningoutofadult
males.
Juan:I'llgiveyouaquickrebuttal,Sebastian.
Sebastian:Irregularwarfareistheweaponoftheweak.Doesthatmeanitneverworks?
IrememberaguycalledMaoforwhomitworkedratherwell.
Irememberabunchofrowdy,rowdycolonialsinthe1770sforwhomitworked
exceptionallywell,andthoughIdon'tsoundlikeitI'mnowaproudAmericanandproud
tobesomebodygratefulforhowirregularwarcanactuallydefeatsuchgreaterpowers.
Juan:Letme,uh,askafinalquestionofthe,uh,oftheoldAvantof[inaudible48:03].
[laughter]
Juan:Um,whataboutthispointthatISIS'splanisnotabouttheimmediate,uh,andthey
areadaptive,um,andtheyarethinkinginmillennialterms,generationalterms?Isn'tthen
thequestionofwhetherISIS'siswinninglessaboutthetemporalandmoreabouttheir
longtermtrajectory?Andhasn'ttheirveryabilitytocreateaphysicalcaliphateandto
surviveforatleastafewyears,hasn'tthatalreadybeenasuccess,anddoesn'tthatmean
they'realreadywinning?
Peter:OnewaytoanswerthattherewassomethinggoingtobecalledtheThousand
YearReich,anditturnedouttoberathershortlived.Imean,th,thisisagaintofallinto
ISIS'spropagandatrap.Hey,we'renotwinningnow,butyouknow,checkwithusina
century,youknow.
[laughter]

p.19

Peter:That,thatisnotaverypersuasiveargument.Imean,yes,Imean,uh,historyis
longthingschange,butwe'retalkingaboutisISISwining,andwe'renottalkingaboutis
ISISwininginthe22ndcentury.We'retalkingaboutisISISwinningtoday.Andthe
answerobviouslyisno.
Juan:Rebuttal?Youhave,you'vegottimeforit.
[laughter]
MaryBeth:Ofcourseit'sabouttemporal.Um,thisisanorganizationthat,uh,how
manyofyouthought,bytheway,forthiselectionthatwewouldbevotingbetweenthe
president,uh,andpresidentialcandidateswewouldbevotingaboutObamacare...
[laughter]
MaryBeth:...oraboutwhetherornotweshouldhavebailedoutthemajorcar
manufacturers,orwhetherweshouldbe,uh,lookingatourparticularlysouthernborder
immigrationpolicy?Ithinkeveryonemaybeevenashorttimeagoastwoyearsago
thoughtthosewouldbethecenterpiecesofourelections.Andthat'snotwhatwe're
talkingaboutarewe?
AmajorcomponentofwhatwearetalkingaboutinthiscampaignisaboutISISandthe
threatofterroriststotheunionandathreatfrominsidetheunionofpeoplewhoare
inspiredbythismovement.Whatahuge,hugechangein24months.Phenomenalchange.
Itisexactlyaboutthetemporalchange,anditisexactlyabouttheperceptionofwho's
wining.Andit'sexactlyaboutwhatarewetalkingabout,whatarewefearing?Andhow
manygayguysand,and,andindividualswhoarenotheterosexualinOrlandowalkinto
thatclubandhesitateeverytimethinking,"Isthisthenexttarget?"Andhowunfairis
that?Andhowhasthatchangedtheirverylives?That'swinning.
Juan:Peter?
Peter:Ifthat'swinningeveryyearinthiscountry10,000peoplearemurderedwithyou
know,gunsor,or3,000morelikelytobekilledbyafellowAmericanwithagunthanby
aterroristinspiredbyISIS.
Sebastian:Butaretheybuildingacaliphate,Peter?
Peter:Idon'tevenknowwhatthatmeans.Imean...
[laughter]
Sebastian:Go,gotoRaqqaandAleppoandfindout.
Peter:Ahwell,thankyou.

p.20

[laughter]
Juan:That'sactuallyanicewaytoendthisportionofit.
[crosstalk]
[laughter]
Peter:...butthat'sOK.
Sebastian:That'swhatthey'retrying.
Peter:Butnotwinningit.
Juan:I'vegotacouplemorequestions,butwenowwanttoopenthisuptotheaudience.
Wesaidwewantedtomakethisparticipatory,andwewill.Wehavethenexthalfhour
forquestions.Iwouldaskoutofrespectforeverybodywhohasaquestionthatyoukeep
itveryshortandprecisewithaquestion,andwewillmanagethentheanswers.
Uh,let'sstartwiththisyoungladyinthemiddlethere.
JocelynWestray:Hi,myname'sJocelyn.I'mwiththeFoundationfortheDefenseof
Democracy.Myquestionis...
Juan:Dowehaveamicrophone?Let'swaitforthemicrophone.Sorryaboutthat.That's
ourfault.Somecommunityactionthere.Therewego.Thankyou.
MaryBeth:Youcanallnowrunforpresident.
Jocelyn:Hi,mynameisJocelynWestray.I'mwiththeFoundationforDefenseof
Democracy.Myquestionisfortheyesside.Iftheyarewinning,whatcanwedotostop
that?What'sourforwardlookingstrategy?
Sebastian:That'smeanttobeourroundupquestion,isn'tit?
Juan:Yeah,whydon'twesavethatfortheend?We'regonna,wearegonnaask,I'm
goingtoaskonefinalquestionandIt'sgonnatorelatetojustthat.Sincewehavethe
mikealreadytherewhydon'twegotothisgentlemanrightthere?Justtomakeit
efficient.
COJohnson:Hello,myname'sCOJohnson.I'mMasterofScienceinHomeland
SecurityfromSanDiegoStateUniversity.And,uh,myquestionforyoueachisinyour
ownopinion,andI'mhopingIgetfourdifferentanswershere,whatquantitativemetrics
wouldyouusetoevaluatewhetherornotwe'rewinningagainstISIS?
Sebastian:Greatquestion.

p.21

Juan:Twominutespersideifyou'dlike.Youdon'thavetotakeitall,butgoahead.
Sebastian:Uh,I'dstartwithaverysimpleone,and,anditleveragesoffwhatmy
colleaguesaid.The,the,thechallengeisnotjustterritory.Territoryisn'tirrelevant,but
it'snotthemetric.ThemetricisthebrandofJihad.
MaryBeth:Mmhmm.
Sebastian:That'sthemetric.WhensomebodywhoisasuccessfulpupilinaBritish
privateschool,anITengineerwithagraduatedegree,becomesthefrontmanforISIS,
wearelosing.Whenamanwhoisintegrated,ostensibly,intoAmericanculturedecides
toslaughter49fellowAmericans,wearelosing.
So,forme,the,therealmetriciswhen,whenthebrandofJihadisnolongersexy.
There'sashockingvideobyanAmerican,uh,uh,Jewish,um,uh,s,um,activistofa,
um,IvyLeaguecampusinAmerica,wherehestandsforthreehoursinthemiddleofthe
quadranglewavingtheblackjihadiflagofISIS.
Doyouknowwhathappenstothismanasthestudentswalkpasthim?Nothingwouldbe
good.It'smuchworsethannothing.Thestudentswhostopsay,"Wow,areyoua
religiousrevolutionary?DoyouhateIsrael?Rockon."
Now,IwenttoHarvard.Ihatedit.
[laughter]
Sebastian:IwouldneversaytheIvyLeaguerepresentsAmerica,buttheseare
AmericankidsinanAmericancollegewhothinktheflagofourenemythatisdraped
behindtheexecutionsofFoley,oftheCopticChristiansofEgypt,iscool.
We'relosingifAmericankidsthinkit'scool.
Peter:Well,thebrandofJihadismisinreallybadshape.Imean,themetricforthatis
theAmericansthatwereinterestedaresuddenlynolongerinterested.It'sjust,it'snotthat
coolanymore.Thenumbershavegonedownfromsixtooneamonthareevenattempting
tojoin,oneamonth.
Bytheway,we'rearrestingeverybody,prettymuchwho,attheairport.Um,soif,if,if
thebrandofJihadisthemeasure,whichIthinkisnotabadone,includinglosing
geography,losingmoney,losingforeignfighters,youknow,thesheen,thesheenisoff
thisbrand.
Um,ifthiswasa,youknow,asortofmarketingcampaign,youknow,ISIShasreally,
youknow,scoreda,uh,uh,themarketingcampaignhasn'tgoneverywell.The,the,it
didwellwhentheywerewinning.Right?Thereweresuddenlyalotofpeoplewho
wantedtojointhis.

p.22

There'sahaloeffectagainstIranwinningteamsorwinninguniversities.Thehaloisvery
muchoffthisparticularbrandrightnow.
Douglas:Andagain,wehaveto,thequestionhereonthetableisaboutISIS.Andwe
havetojudgethemontheirownterms.Andtheysetthemetricas,"Wehaveacaliphate
now."Theyarenowshifting,andsaying,"Well,we'regoingtohaveacaliphatelater."
Whenyoumovetothatargument,nowyou'rebacktoAlQaeda.Andifyou'regoingto
say,"Let'shavethecaliphatelater,"thenwhynotgowithAlQaedathathadthatposition
allalongandneverengagedinthisfoolishnessof,"Let'sbuildacaliphatenow,"andgot
45,000Jihadistskilledforeventuallynothing.
[crosstalk]
Douglas:We'reshiftingthemetric.ThisisnotaboutdowehaveaproblemwithIslamic
Jihadism.Theanswertothat'sclearlyyes.Theans,thequestiononthetableisdo,is,"Is
ISISwinning?"Andthatanswerisno.
MaryBeth:TheUnitedStategovernmentandourcoalitionhavebeentalkingabout
takingbackMosulhowlong?Howmanyyears?Soifyouwannatalkaboutshifting
claimstoterritory,we'rejustasbadastheyare,andtheystillhaveMosul.Andthereason
theyhaveMosulistheirtwoyearplanning,whichwasjustontheinchofhappening,
havefailedbecausewecouldn'tdoit.
Sodoesthatmake,doesthatmakethecasethatwe'relosing?No,butitdoesn'tmakethe
casethatthey'rewinning.AndthefactofthematterisourownStateDepartmenthassaid
thatISthe,thesocalledIslamicStateisnowexecutingthirdcountrysuicide
bombingsandexecutionsataratehigherthaneverbefore.
Now,youcansaynotalotofU.S.peoplemaybegoingtoSyriaandIraqashave,asthey
havebefore,butthere'snostatisticthatI'mawareofthatcanaccuratelytellyouhow
manyofthat110FBIinterceptedterroristactsinourcountry,60percentofwhichwere
15to25yearolds.They'rekids.
Ifthere'ssomemetricthatcantellme,lookintothemindsofAmerica'schildrenandsay
statisticallythatthey'renothangingoutorexploringorthinkingthesesitesarecool,and
thatsomehowthatdoesn'tcount,thenshameonallofus,becausewearestill,asmy
colleaguesays,judgingthismovementbyantiquatedstandardsthataren'tgoingto
matter.
Andwhenthenextperson,shop,plane,automobileisattackedbysomeoneinthis
countryorsomeoneinFranceorinBelgiumorinTurkeyoraknifewieldingcrazy
persononatrain,thenexttimethathappens,wesay,"Well,thatdoesn'tcount,"then
shameonusagain,becauseitdoescountandit'sexactlywhatthismovementisabout.
It'sthatkindofterror.It'sreachingintoyourindividualhomes,yourlives,yourpolitics,

p.23

yourgroceryshopping.It'sanewkindofwar,andourlackofbeingabletorecognizeit
twoverysmartguysshowsthatthey'rewinning.
Juan:Nextquestion.Let'sgorighthere,andthenwe'llcomeherenext.
[backgroundconversations]
AlexanderKravitz:Thankyouverymuch.Uh,fasci,fascinatingdebate.Ihope
comingdebatesinthefall,uh,risetothe,tothislevel.
Um,it,I'mgoingtoaskmyquestionveryrespectfully.Itseemstomelikeonesidehas
beendebatingthequestionofwhetherISISiswinningandtheothersidehasbeen
debatingthequestion,er,whetherISIShasbeendefeated,buttotryto,fra,uh,frame
the,thequestionon,on,on,let'ssay,onyourterms,Iwouldliketoask,let's,let'sassume
that,uh,Mosulistakeninsixmonths,threemonths.Uh,howwouldthataffect,inyour
viewonthe,onthenorthside?HowwouldthataffecttheISISbrand?
Juan:Canyouidentifyyourself,sir,please?
Alexander:I'msorry.AlexanderKravitzfrom"Insight"here.Sorry.
Juan:Twominuteseach.
MaryBeth:Goahead.
Sebastian:Wonderfulquestion,wonderfulquestion.Er,itcompletelydependsuponthe
scenario.Ifitisus,ifthefaceofthatvictoryisawhiteorbrownskinnedAmerican
victory.
Ifit'sthe82ndAirborneoronemyththatpullsinandtakesMosul,itwillbeavictoryfor
ISIS,becausetheywilljustgototheeschatologicaltextsthattheyuseintheir55,000
dailysocialmediapostsandsay,"Look,wetoldyou.ThisisthefinalJihad.AlShamis
beingattackedbytheinfidel,thenewcrusaders."
Andinsteadof36,000foreignfightersrecruitedinthreeyears,itwillbe36,000fighters
recruitedinthreeweeks,becausetheywillexploitthatmercilessly.If,asopposedtothat
asIdescribedinmybookwereallythinkaboutthisastohowvictoryshouldlook.
IfitisatrueSunnialliance,thatwehelpedfacilitatetheJordanian,andIraqi,and
Egyptian,andEmiratiwiththeHashemitekingridingonthatHumveeintoMosul,and
followedbytheIraqis,followedbythepeoplewhoarethegreatestvictimsofthiswar,
themoderateSunnis,ISISwillbecrushed.
BecausethentheywillimposetheirversionofmoderateIslamtodestroythe
eschatologicalversionofIslamthatisISIS'spropagandamagnet.So,wehavetobevery
carefulherenottofulfilltheirwishlistof,"Thecrusadersarecoming."

p.24

Er,becauseifwedo,ISIStodaywilllooklikeanamateurthea,theatrics,er,troupe,as
opposedtowhattheywillbecome.
Juan:Doug,Peter.
Peter:Well,um,IthinkSebastianquiteeffectivelymadeourargumentbecausethat's
exactlywhatwe'regoingtodo.
Sebastian:[laughs]Iwish.
Peter:Imean,it'snotgonnabethe82ndAirbornesortofgoingintoMosul.Imeannot,
ifyoulookatbasicallyallthemilitaryactivity,uh,theAmericanfaceonitisveryminor.
It'stheIraqarmyinthelead,andit'stheKurdsand,andothergroups.
Andbytheway,ane,anewpoint.It'sneveraneffectivestrategytomakeaworldof
enemies,andthisispreciselywhatISIShasdone.There'snotacountryintheworldthat
hasn'tsaidthatthey'reapartofthiscoalition,and,uh,therearemorethanadozen
countriesthatareactivelybombingaswespeak.
Notonlythat,butthey'vemadeaworldofenemieswithinIraq.There'snotacategoryof
insin,orethnicgrouporpersontheyhaven'tattacked.TheYazidis,theChristians,the,
uh,Sunniswhodon'tagreewiththem,theShia.
Everybodyisunitedagainstthem.Imean,howdoyouwinagainstacoalitionthat
includestheentireworldandeverybodyinyourcountry?Theanswerisyoucan't.
Andthenjustoneothersortofnewideainhere.TheParisattacks,theysucceeded.They
killed130people.Why?BecausethesepeoplehadactuallytrainedinSyria.Theyweren't
somepeoplewhojustsortofreadstuffontheInternet.Theystudiedcloseunittacticsin
Syria,uh,andtheykilled130people.
ThereasonwewentintoAfghanistanwastogetridofAlQaeda'ssanctuaryin
Afghanistanasacountersanctuarystrategy.Thereasonthatit'simportantforustoget
ridofthatsanctuaryinSyriaandIraqisthentheycan'ttrainpeopleformassive,at,
attacksthatarereally,uh,trained,directed,operated.
Yes,we'regonnahavelonewolfattacksbypeopleinspiredbyISISorwhateverfollows
ISIS.There'snotahellofalotwecandowiththat,becausebythelawofaverages,some
ofthemaregoingtogetfree.
Butthatsaid,theFBIisdoingaverygoodjobofstayingontopofthesecases.
Juan:Let'sgo...
MaryBeth:To...sorry.
[crosstalk]

p.25

Juan:...MaryBeth,letmeholdoff,let'sgetanotherquestion.Thisyoungladyinfront,
please.Microphone.
Hosana:IamHosanafromBrazil...
Sebastian:Pleasewait.Microphone.
Hosana:Goodevening.IamHosanafromBrazil.Atfirst,um,mycountrygotaread
thatsomedaysagofromaterroristgroupcalled[inaudible63:05].Theystartedat,asa,
asapolitewaytoshowlibertyandnewideas.Asnow,wearelivinginaliquid
generationthatwecanspreadideasthroughInternetwithidealism.
Doyoureallythinktheyarelosing?Because,um,Icanshowyouafterthis,uh,how
muchmycountrylose,uh,havelostintheseyears13yearsbecausetheyare
terrorists.AndIsayto,Icansaytoyou,terroristscanbeorganizedtobeinthepowerin
apoliteway.
Howcanyousayaboutit?
Peter:Well,Idon't,I'mnotawareofISISattacksorISISinspiredattacksinBrazil.
We'retalkingaboutISIShere.Idon'tthinkwe'retalkingaboutthegeneralissueof,of
courseideasspreadontheInternet,Internet.And,butImean,uh,Idon'tthinkthere'sany
argumentaboutthat.AndISIShasdoneaprettyeffectivejobofspreadingitsideas.But,
buttheshineisoffbecausethey'relosingessentially.Andnoonewantstobeonalosing
team.
MaryBeth:MayI?
Peter:Particularly,um,particularlynotDougOllivantandPeterBergen.
[laughter]
Juan:They'redoingagoodjob.MaryBeth?
MaryBeth:Ithinkyourpointiswelltaken.Um,it'sonlybeenthissummer,it'sonly
beeninthelastcoupleofmonthsthatTurkey,Paris,allthesehorrific,horrific,it'salsoa
newkindofviolence,butwehaven'ttalkedmuchaboutthat.Butit'saviolencebeyond
whatmanyofuswouldhaveconceivedwasevenacceptable.
It's,it'salmosttothepointwherewe'renot,we're,we'realittlerestshockedifit'sjusta
beheading.It,howhorribleisthat?Thatanentitycouldhonoredon,Imeanbeheading's
somethinghappeningforalongtime.
Butthismedium,Ithinkbyallcounts,theseterroristshavetakenthemediumof
propaganda,themediumofthisideologytooltoawholenewlevelofhorrifying.Andit's
slowly,uh,becominglessandlesshorrific.Isthatnotwinning?

p.26

BacktoMosul.Ithinkthere'sonethingthatwe'reallsortofslidingbyhere.Andthatis
thereal,veryrealpossibilitythatasuccessbythecoalitionevenwiththeUSbehindthe
scene,appropriatelyhiddenbehind,uh,peoplewhodon'tlooklikeuswillincludea
significantportionofShiamilitia,anIRGCeitherbackedorinspiredwhowill,having
defeatedISIS,do,dowhatwefeartheywilldomost,whichiscontinuetoslaughterto
theTurkmen,theKurds,andtheSunni,andMosul,uh,inretaliationwhichwillendup
beingahugevictoryforISIS.
BecausewewillonceagainbefacedwiththepredicamentofSunniandthosewhoare
notShia,andarenotalignedwithIran,andarenotpartoftheIraqiShuans,
Shiainspiredmilitiawillturn,will,willbeforcedto,toalignthemselveswiththemost
effectiveplayerontheground.
OneofwhichiscertainlyISIS,andwe'llendupwithevenaworstcasescenariohaving
takenallthestatisticsandallthecriteriathatwe'vebeentalkingaboutoverhere,andone
Mosulbacked.Excuseme.
Sebastian:One,onefactonthecoalition...
Juan:Quickly,Sebastian.
Sebastian:Onefact.Uh,wehavebeenaccusedofdrinkingpropagandakoolaid.Well,
Mr.Bergenhasdrunkourkoolaid,theadministration'skoolaid.Thereisno63country
coalition.Itdoesnotexist.I'vegonethere.I'vebreathed[inaudible66:50]intheater.
Outof62nations,thereweretwoMuslimnationsintheroom.Andoneofthemwas
Turkeywhichisn'tevenArab.It'ssmokeandmirrors.Ionlywishthisiswhatwe'regoing
todo.Itisn'thappening.
Andonthedatapointofwhatwasjustmentioned,TheLongWarJournalandtheSITE
IntelligenceGrouphasestimatedthisisfreshsinceJune2ndofthisyear,withtheriseof
ISIS.TherehasbeenajihadiattackoutsideofIraqandSyriaeveryeighttothree...
MaryBeth:Everyeighthours.
Sebastian:...hours.Doesthatsoundlikeyouasifthey'relosing?
Juan:LetmenotbebiasedtomyrightofthewayI'mfacinghere,it'snothingI'mever
accusedof,bytheway.
[laughter]
Juan:Thisyoungladyhere,please.
MaryBeth:That'sawesome.
AnnaSmithLacey:AnnaSmithLacey.By,um,theaccountsofSunTzu,"Thegreatest

p.27

victoryisthatwhichrequiresnobattle."Accordingtotheprettypremodernprinciple,
wouldyouconsiderISISwinningorlosing?
Sebastian:[laughs]
Juan:Both.
[laughter]
Peter:Doug?
Douglas:Uh,look.ISISisnotwinning.AndIthinkthat's,you,we,we'veheardDr.
Gorkaaliehere.Youjustsaiditattheend.Youknow,they'renotlosing.Well,that'snot
whatwe'retalkingabouthere.Thequestionis,aretheywinning?
AndI'mlike,"Whatistheirtheoryofvictory?"Howdoacoupleattacks,eveniftheydo
managetobreachahorrificlevelof150hereandthereand,youknow,30hereand
terriblebombingsinIraq.What'syourtheoryofvictory?Howdoesthatgetyouwinning
particularlywhenyou'relosingyourbaseatthesametime?
That's,thesearetwodifferentquestions.Theonewe'redebatinghereis,arethey
winning?
Sebastian:Uh,I'lltellyouhowthey'rewinning.They'rewinningexactlyinthemodeof
SunTzu.SunTzuisthemasteroftheindirect,nonkineticvictory.It'salreadybeensaid.
WhenwegotothepollsinNovember,andformanyAmericans,probablymost,Iwould
hazard,theburningissueis,"WillIandmychildrenbesafewiththispersonasthe
commanderinchieforthatpersonthecommanderinchief?"Theyarewinning.
MaryBeth:Well,and,andmoreimportantly,and,and,andwithallduerespect,ifthe,
ifthe,let'sassumethatISISdoesn'thaveastrategicplan.Iflackofastrategicplanisan
indicationofwhetheryou'rewinningorlosing,Idon'twannaputwordsinthemouthof
anybodyintheaudience,butthatmeanswewouldhavelostthisthingalongtimeago.
BecauseIdon'tthinkthere'sapersononthisplanetthatthinksthatwehavehad,even
withourowngovernment,acoherentstrategythat'sbeenexecutedatleastonISIS.
Andforgetthefactthatwedon'thaveone,there'snoonethatcansaythatthissocalled
coalitionofthewilling,ortheunwilling,orthepaperhasaplanthat's,that'sbeing
executedasaplanthatistransnational,transborder,andthatisdefactoofnotonlyin
Sirte,inIraq,andinSyria,andinLibya,butwherethemajorityofthisthreatactually,uh,
certainlybyactivitieslies,andthatisintheseothercaliphatesandtheseothertargets.
Ifthere'saplanthere,Iwouldloveforsomeonetorefertoit,butthereisn't.So,I'm,I'm
notsayingthatthat'sa,uh,tosaythatwe'relosing,butI'msayingthatthat'sthecriteria,
Doug,thenwelostawhileago.

p.28

Juan:Timeformorequestions.Thisyoungladyinthemiddle,please.
[pause]
AshleyBowers:Hi.AshleyBowers.IactuallyattendtheMcCainInstitutewiththe
PolicyDesignStudio.Um,butmyquestionis,atthebeginningofthiswar,itwasvery
quicklystatedthatthiswarwouldbebrief.Um,andhereweare15yearslater,um,with
suchariseofISIL.Um,andmyquestionforyouall,isthiswarevenpotentially
winnable?
Peter:Well,thisisnotwhatwe'redebatingtoday.Imean,it'saverygoodquestion.It'sa
verygoodquestion.Imean,Ithinkweareonastart,stateofquasipermanentwarthat
willlikelybeafeature,atleasteverybodyonthestage'sprofessionallifeandmaybe
peoplewhoareyoungeraswell.
Butthequestionis,isISISwinning?Now,we'reabouttodefeatISISalmost,Iwould
say,completelywithinthenextyearorso.They,theirclaimtohaverunthisstateis
basicallygonnabeover.
WearenotsayingthatglobalJihadismisaproblem,isnotaproblem.Ofcourse,itis.We
aresayingthatparticulariterationthatweareseeingthisgroup,ISIS,hasover,
oversteppedandit's,andislosing.
Andtheremightbea,aglo,therewillcertainlyanothersuccessortoISISthatmayact,
uh,mayhaveabetter,slightlybetterstrategybecausethey,youknow,maynotmakea
worldofenemies,maynotmakeaworldofinternalenemiesintheMiddleEast.
Uh,andinfact,thatgroupmaywellbeAlQaedawho,whichisnotmakingthesame
mistakesthatISISisdoing,whichisholdingterritoryinSyria,andmaybethenext
iterationofthisthreatthatweneedtobeconcernedabout.
Uh,so,we'renotsayingglobalJihadismisnotaproblem.Uh,I,Ithinkeverybodyon
thisstageagreesthatit'sa,akindofafeatureofourliveswhichunfortunatelywillcarry
onforalongtime.Wearen'tsayingthisparticularkindofexpressionofitisindeep
trouble.
Juan:Thisside.
Sebastian:Thesubtitleofmybookis,DefeatingJihad:TheWinnableWar.
Peter:24.95onAmazon.
Sebastian:Absolutely.
[laughter]
Sebastian:Foryou,50.

p.29

[laughter]
Sebastian:Um,itiswinnable.Why?BecauseISISistheembodimentofaglobaljihadi
movement.Whatisthatmovementpredicatedaround?Totalitarianism.Ithasa
connectivetissuetofascists,totheNazisofWorldWarII.Ithasaconnectivetissueto
StalinandtheSovietUnion.
Itisreligiouslyinformed,butitistotalitarianbecauseeitheryouagreewiththemorthey
willkillyouandenslaveyou.That'sthedefinitionofatotalitarianideology.Andguess
what?Whichnationwasindispensableinthelastcenturytothedefeatofbothfascism
andcommunism?Thisone.
Andguesswhat?It'sgoingtobeusagainwhoareindispensabletothisvictory.We've
doneitbefore.Wecandoitagain,butonly,asmycolleaguesaid,ifwegetontothe
battlefieldofideas.
Thesegentlemenareobsessedwiththephysical,withwhatcanbemapped.We'renot
fightingTojo'simperialJapan.Thisisn'tthePacific.OK?Thisisaboutthemindofthat
AfghandescendantinOrlando.It'saboutthemindofthosechildrenbeingbredintojihadi
schoolsaswespeak.Ifwedon'tbegintounderstandhowtheideologyisthecenterof
gravity,thenwewillcontinuetolosethiswar.
MaryBeth:Justa,I'msorry.
Juan:20seconds.Goahead.
MaryBeth:20seconds.
Juan:20seconds.
MaryBeth:Wedon't,wedon'tgetit.Everybodyinthisroom,don'tyoufeellikeyou've
heardthis,you'veseenthisvideobefore?
"OK,wegotAlQaedaoverinAfghanistan.Wedefeatedthem.They'reintothecaves.
We'rewinning.They'relosing.SomeofthemhadescapedinAlQaeda,ohmygosh.All
weneedtodoisgetthisguyBinLadenandthey'llgoaway.Now,wegottagetother
guy,gottaget,gottagetotherguy."
And,andthey'renot,they'renotwinning.They'renotlosing.And,andthen,andthen,it,
it'sthisconstantbeatofextremistswhoareviolentwhowedon'tunderstand.Becausewe
constantlybeatthem,beatthem,they'relosinginwaysthatweareusedtolookingat
things.
Territory,numbersofbullets,numbertopeople,howmanydidIkill?Airstrikes,suicide
bombers.Andyet,15yearslater,we'rejust,oh,they'remorphing.So,thatmeansthey're
weak.Stepback.Lookatthisstrategically.Theywinbythemerefactthatwe'retalking
aboutthis15yearslater.

p.30

Juan:Peter,I'mgonnagiveyouaquickrebuttal,andthenwe'regonnagotothetopto
thisyoungladyupthere.
Peter:Youhavegreatsmallpoint.Noforeignterroristorganizationhasattackedthe
UnitedStatessince9/11.Imean,we'remuch,muchsaferthanwewereon9/11.
Um,and,youknow,attheendofdays,ideologiestendtoattachthemselvestoterritoryin
someway.ImeantheSovietUnioncollapsedwasanideology.Uh,one,oncethey,you
know,intheabsenceoftheSovietUnion,theideologykindacollapsedwithit.
Uh,so,thereisarelationshipbetweenideologyandstates.Imean,thisisagroupthat
callsitselfastate.Ifit'snotastate,theideologicalclaimsitmakesaremuchlessstrong.
Juan:Doug?
Douglas:Acoupleofthings.Imean,I'mgladIwroteatthisdown.Imean,Isaidatthe
beginning,thequestionis,"IsISISwinning?"Not"AreIslam'sjihadisgroupsondecline?
IsthethreadofIslamickillorterrorismdeclining?OrdoestheUnitedStateshavea
coherentstrategyfortheMiddleEast?"whichMaryBethjustjumpedonto.
PeterandIwouldnotargueagainstthosethree,youknow,thosethreestatements.That's
notwe'retalkingabout.Yes,ideologyisahugeproblem.It'smuch,muchlarger.The
ideologyisaboveISIS.AndthenISISisasubcategorythereof.
Andthenyouhaveothersub,subcategories.Andsomeofthemdon'tlikeeachother.We
haveAlQaedafightingISISinsideSyriaonoccasion.Theydon'talwaysgetalong.The
questionisaboutthisspecificbrandofISIS.
MaryBeth:Butjust,justtobeclear,butyoumadethepointthatISIS,whatwasatISIS'
strategyforwinning,wasn'ttalkingaboutourstrategyfortheMiddleEast.AndIturned
itrightbackonyouandsay,"So,what'sourplanfordefeatingISIS?"Andthefact...
Douglas:Idon'tthinkyou'regettingthepicture,Ijustsaidwehaveaplanforthat.That's
notthequestionwe'redebatinghere.
MaryBeth:ButyoumadethepointthatISISwaslosingbecausetheydidn'thavea
plan,andIturneditrightbackatyou.
[crosstalk]
Douglas:Theyhavetobeatus.Theyhavetobeatus.Wedon't...
MaryBeth:No,theydon'thavetobeat...
Douglas:Theyhavetowin.Aretheywinning?That'sourquestion,MaryBeth.Arethey
winning?

p.31

MaryBeth:No,theydon'thavetobeatusinthewaythatyou'resaying.Theyhave
beatenusinthewa,warofideologywhichiswhywe'resittingheretalkingaboutthem.
That'sthewholeproblem.
Douglas:Theideologyisoutthere,MaryBeth.Butthat'snotISIS.
MaryBeth:ThatisISIS.Theyare,theyareideology...
[crosstalk]
Juan:Letme,letmeholdhere.Letmeholdhere.
MaryBeth:Sorry.
Juan:Let's,let'sgotothisyoungladyupherewhobeenverypatientandhasthemic.
MaryBeth:Yousaidyouwantedustointerject,we'reinterjecting.
Juan:Iloveit.Goahead.
Claudia:OK.Hi.MynameisClaudia.I'mfromBrazil,too.
Juan:Oh,alotofBrazilians,welcome.Obrigado.
MaryBeth:NicejobontheOlympics,bytheway.
[laughter]
Claudia:And,uh,myquestionis,uh,Iagreewiththe,withtheyessidewhentheysay
thatthisisawarthatismuchmore,um,psychologicalandlikeaboutfearthanitisabout
territoriesinaway.Iwould,Iwouldagreewiththat.
However,uh,itseemstomethat,especiallybecauseofthat,sinceyouusedasaunityof
measuretheamountoffearthatitbringsupinpeople,uh,don'tyouthink,andit'ssomy
questionisforyou,uh,thatsayingthatthey'rewinningisbuyingintotheirownproduct?
Andalso,um,if,Imean,the,thenextquestionIthinkitwillbemoreof,um,how,uh,
thebeststrat,strategytobeatthemwouldbebutin,inareasonableway.AndthenI,I
wouldaskyoutoconsiderandtotalkaboutalittlebitmoreaboutthe,um,therelevancy
ofterritorial,um,combat.So,notlikepersontoperson,butwithdroidsandwhat'sbeen
goingon,so.
MaryBeth:Youwroteonthis,so.
Sebastian:Yeah.
Juan:Ifwecouldanswerthefirstquestion,thatwouldbegood.

p.32

MaryBeth:OK,sorry.
Sebastian:OK.So,uh,fascinatingquestion.Um,Whetherornotpeopleareafraidisa
fact.Denyingitbecauseyoudon'twanttoadmitit'sthereisn'tasolution.Imean,how
manypeopleareafraid,itwasjustpointedout,goingintoagaybaroragayclubnowin
AmericaafterOrlando?
Thatfeariswhattheterroristwishestoachieve.Andifthey'veachievedit,theyare
winning.Itisanobjectivefact.Where,ifwe,thefactthatwedon'tlikeitdoesn'tchange
anything,anduswhistlingpastthegraveyardtryingtodenyitdoesn'tgetustoapoint
wherewe'rewinning.
Wegettoapointwherewe'rewinningwherethebrandiseventually,theISISbrand,the
ISISbrand,isdelegitimizedwithourMuslimalliesasthefrontofthatdelegitimizing
effort,tothepointatwhichAmericansarenolongerafraid.That'sthecorrectmetric.
Whenpeoplestepoutoftheirhouseinthemorning,andtheydon'tthinkthatAmericais
potentiallywheretheywillbekilledbyajihadi.That'sthemetric.
MaryBeth:And,andIwouldargueevenit,itscontextualisallofit.Butwhatisn'tis
everythingbutthe,thepsychologicalpart.
It's,it'severythingthateveryoneha,sawuponthoseboards,butyoudidn'tseeanything
aboutthefactthatpeoplearen'tshoppinginKhanorMonteCarlo,orthatparentsof,of,
offriendsofminewholiveinOrlando,whowannagooutintheeveningwiththeir
friendsanddancearecallingtheirkidsandsaying,"Pleasedon'tgo."It'sallofit.
Andby,butbydenyingthefactthatyoucanlosethebattleinSirteanditwon'tmakea
darnbitofdifferencetothat15yearoldinOhiowhoboughtagunandwaslookingfor
waystokillanentireschoolonlybecausehethoughthecould.
Ifyoudenythat,doesitreallymatterwhathappensinSirte?Whenthenext,whenthe
nextbombgoesoffinaclub,isitreallygonnamatterhowmanyLibyanslosttheirlives
inatransactionthatkilledallthejihadisandnamethetownthatwe'llneverevenbeable
tofindonthemap?
Juan:MaryBeth,Imayhavetoaskyoutostop.
MaryBeth:It'scontextual.
Juan:Peter?
Peter:Youknow,ifthetestis,uh,isISISsucceedingideologically,whichispartofthe
argumentofourfriendsontheotherside.I'mnotamathematician,somebodymaybecan
helpmewiththis.
But,let'ssaythemaximumpeoplethatarebeingattractedbythisideologyis50,000.

p.33

Andthenlet'slookattheuniverseofMuslimsintheworldwhichis1.5billionplus.I
mean,thenumberis0.00001percent.
Theyhavesucceed,ifthe,ifthisisaboutthewarofideas,youknow,communismwhich
doc,Dr.Gorkamentionedearlier,Imean,hundredsofmillionsofpeoplethoughtthat
wasagoodidea.Nazism,tensofmillionsofpeopleinGermanythoughtthatwasagood
idea.
Thisisnotthecasewiththisideology.Thisideologyhasattractedveryfewpeople.And
aswe've,Ithink,verywelloutlined,thenumberofpeoplewhoaresigningupisgoing
downprecipitouslypreciselybecausethey'renotcreatingtheIslamistutopiainthatstate,
they'recreatinghellonearth,andthat'snowwidelyrecognized.
Juan:Uh,fronthere,thisgentleman.
GregoryGowen:[inaudible82:22].
[crosstalk]
MaryBeth:Youhavetoprojectyourvoice.
[pause]
Gregory:Goodevening.MidshipmanGregoryGowen,um,fromtheNavalAcademy.
Um,myquestionis,initscurrentofISISwhereit'slosingterritory,canitsurvivewithout
anysupportfromexternalnationstates?Andhowmuchsupportdoesitexactlygetfrom,
uh,SaudiArabia?
Sebastian:[laughs]
Peter:Imean,Ithinkthat'shardtojudge.AndImean,Ithinkthere'snodebateonthis
stagethatthisisa,youknow,welloff,uh,uh,terroristgroup.But,uh,averyimportant
pointhere.Astheyloseterritory,they'relosingmoneyveryquicklybecausethere'salot
ofdiscussionaboutransomsandoil.Therealwaytheymakethemoneyistaxationand
extortion.
Ifyoucontroleightmillionpeople,that'salotofpeopletotaxandextort.Ifyousuddenly
onlycancontrolthreemillionpeople,that'salotless.Thereasonthatthosefiguresare
goingdownisnotjustthatwe'dtakenallthe,youknow,manyortheiroldtribes.
Wealso,bytheway,bombed,youknow,thebankwheretheykeptalltheircurrency.
Andthe"NewYorkPost"hadawonderfulheadline,"USmakesbigdeposit."
[laughter]
Peter:Uh,andso,youknow,it,theirmoneyjustwentupinsmoke.Andthat'swhy
they'vehadtohalftheirsalaries.And,youknow,ifyou'reaterroristgroup,youhave

p.34

volunteers.Ifyou'rerunninganinsurgentarmy,you'reoftenpayingpeople.Andthey
have,uh,youknow.
So,runningoutofmoneyisaproblemforthem.Uh,youknow,theyhavea,theytryto
filltheverylargearmy.Itisgettingsmaller,andsmaller,andsmaller.So,Ithinkthe
Saudiissueaboutwhetherthey'refinancingISISis,Imean,it'saverycomplicated
questionthatthis,itwouldbehardtoanswerin,inthisformat.
Juan:Rebuttal.
Sebastian:Whetherwewinandtakemoreterritoryornotis,isreallyirrelevantbecause
they'refollowingagameplan.AndI'mgonnaplugabook,notmybook,OK?There'sa
bookeverybodyinthisroomshouldcheckout,whichisthegameplanforISIS.It's
called,"TheManagementofSavagery,"writtenbyAbuBakrNaji,NAJI.Youcanfind
itonline,translatedbyWillMcCants.
AbuBakrNajiwroteanincrediblypragmatic,irregularwarfareapproachtohowtobuild
acaliphate.AndthisisabsolutelywhatISISisfollowing.It'sbaseduponthreephases
thevexationphase,theexpansionphaseandtheconsolidation,andtheenlargement
phase.
Peter:Theexpansionphaseisreallygoingwell.
[laughter]
MaryBeth:Itistherein86countries.
[crosstalk]
Sebastian:...interruptingyou,Peter.
Peter:JustthatI,Ifeltcompelled.
[laughter]
Sebastian:So,andthepoint,thepointoftheplanisit'snotlikeourplans,likeourjoint
pubs,likeourmilitarydoctrinewhereaphaseisveryclean.It'sdiscrete.Itbegins,itends
inthenextone.
Theirplanisbaseduponthecreationofahybridcaliphate.WhatIliketocallagiant
FOB,agiantforwardoperatingbase,whichisalilypad,whichisalaunchplatform,
whichwhetheritshrinksorenlarges,it'sirrelevantbecauseitisusedtolaunchmore
terroristattacksintonewtheaters.
So,whetherthisvillagefallsSyriaorIraqisirrelevantbecausenext,theywouldmove
intoJordan.TheywillintoSaudi.Theywillmoveintootherareas.It's,it'sanonwestern
conceptualizationofwarfare.Andagain,whenweapplyourmetrics,itlookslikewe're

p.35

winning,butit'sthewrongmetrics.

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