Iranian agreement and regional prospects

By Andrei Vlasceanu
Historic
The Iranian nuclear program became an international matter
since 2002, when an Iranian dissident group revealed that the
government in Tehran have developed two undeclared facilities.
International Atomic Energy Agency, according with
international law, has started its monitoring program on this
issue, but the Islamic Republic did not comply in accordance
with Non-Proliferation Treaty, as a signatory state.
Consequently, IAEA reported the matter to UN Security Council
in February 2006 and were instated a series of economic
sanctions against the government in Tehran, which were
completed with additional US and EU sanctions. As they were
imposed, has targeted key-economic sectors: natural resource
exports, petrochemical, banking system and international acces
for financing.
Reestablishing international position
In June 2013, the Islamic Republic held presidential election that
was won by Hassan Rouhani and his political program based on
moderation and constructive engagement with international
community. The motive behind this project was the lowering
living standards as the economy was affected by Irans isolation
and the sanctions imposed by the Western governments.
Prior to Hassan Rouhani's election, the Obama administration
began a series of secret contacts between Washington and
Tehran to establish a status quo between the two countries on
the viability of an agreement on the Iranian nuclear project. The

talks began under President Ahmadinejad, denoting that the

Iranian leadership is considering and there is political will to
bring it to fruition.
On 24 November 2013, P5 + 1 (UK, France, US, China and
Russia, plus Germany and EU) have reached an interim
agreement, the Joint Plan of Action, in Geneva with the Islamic
Republic. This arrangemet has been signed starting from the
idea that Tehran will freeze its enrichement key points, so a
number of sanctions to be lifted and negotiations will continue
until is reached a long-term deal.
On 2 April 2015, Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad
Zarif and High Representative for Foreign Relations, Federica
Mogherini, announces that a framework deal was established
and the negotiations will continue until 30 June, when they will
sign over a final long-term arrangement. The framework,
achieved in the spirit of the Joint Plan of Action, stipulates that
Iran will reduce , for ten years, its centrifuge to 5.000; to
conduct uranium enrichment only at Natanz; Fordow facility will
be transformed into a research site for medical and agriculture
usage; lowering enriched uranium to a few hundred kilograms;
will implement Additional Protocol and give acces to IAEAs
inspectors. In return, US and EU will freeze oil and banking
sanctions and, eventually, lift UN Security Council resolutions on
Iran.
Since 2 April, the negotiations were held in Vienna and the
E3+3 Foreign Ministers and Iranian Foreign Minister, came to a
turning point: a time frame for lifting sanctions and alleged
achieving nuclear weapon. They represent the gaps that need
to be bridged in accordance to every actors red lines. The
Islamic Republic demands a specific time frame because is
subsequent to the arms embargo, where Russians have an
interest in selling the S-300 PMU1 missile system. As for the
alleged military dimension of the nuclear capabilities, the IAEAs
Director General, Yukyia Amano, declared : With the
cooperation from Iran, I think we can issue a report by the end

of the year on the assessment of the clarification of the issues

related to possible military dimension. US Secretary of State
says that political decisions have to be made so that a deal
could be reached and pass the test of time, otherwise US will
leave the table. EU High Representative says that is time for
yes or no over the text, while the Iranian Minister, backed by
Russian Minister, says the negotiators wants to renegotiate
issues already established in the framework reached in
Laussune, but is assuring about the willingness that a long-term
agreement can be reached. The 30 June deadline has been
prolonged until 7 July, then postponed until 10 July and now
until 13 July.
Regional prospects
Arab Spring, initially a democratic reform, has morphed into
regional chaos: increasing non-state entities with terrorist
character (the Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra), the dissolution of
Sykes-Picot Pact and the ethnic-religious war between Sunni
and Shiite.
US as regional hegemon, never had economic levers necessary
to be able to project power in the region, as exemplified by
withdrawing from Iraq. So, amid the Arab Spring and
destabilizing civil war in Syria, regional countries began a power
struggle in the Middle East by forming a Sunni-dominated axis
(Saudi Arabia and Turkey) versus Iran and its supporters:
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. A key-element in
the regional turning point is Egypts position regarding the
Syrian civil war by adopting the Russian solution: a political
transition from Assads regime to democracy and in the same
time, performing a rapprochement with Iran.
Saudi Arabia opposes the US-Iran deal because Riyadh believes
that the Islamic Republic will still reach an atomic bomb, that
will grant a sort of immunity among the others regional
players and will perform all sorts of changes in the zone. So, as
a precautionary measure, is establishing a long-term
relantionship with Moscow by performing a 10 billion

investment in Russian agriculture and demanding know-how for

bulding 16 nuclear reactors. Even though US performed verbal
assurances to its GCC allies by establishing an anti-missile
defence system in the region.
Israel opposes the long-term arrangement because it threatens
the existence of the Jewish state, as the Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu stated in US Congress. The existent
relationship between Tel-Aviv and White House is characterized
by the lack of trust among the two leaders regarding the
Palestinians, because the Prime Minister never sought to reach
a two-state solution. As a consequence of the long-term deal,
Tel-Aviv will take the battle in Congress, where the American
Israel Public Affairs Committee has influence among Republican
representatives. Another measure is establishing a secret
alliance with Sunni powers against Iran.
A long-term deal with Iran will be determined as the economic
interests will be translated into political will necessary for a
viable arrangement. Economic entities, especially French
companies, want to perform a series of investments in the
Iranian economy and as for the Persian counterpart, the local
economic sectors are willing to absorb. However, this deal will
affect the internal affairs of the Islamic Republic by the 2016
elections where we will assist to a battle between hardliners
and reformists, but also alter the Middle East geopolitics and
geoeconomics: the Silk Road project to built a gas pipeline
between Iran, Pakistan and China.