Natural Disaster Mitigation: A Scientific and Practical Approach

Natural Disaster Mitigation:
A Scientific and Practical Approach

the InterAcademy Panel on International Issues
Responsible Editors: Peng Bin, Zhu Haiyan, Han Peng
Copyright 2009 by the InterAcademy Panel on International Issues

Published by Science Press
16 Donghuangchenggen North Street
Beijing 100717, P.R.China
Printed in Beijing, December, 2009.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
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ISBN 978-7-03-025804-5
Study Panel
Chair
Prof. Guo Huadong
Center for Earth Observation and Digital
Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Panelist
Dr. Salvano Briceno, United Nations
Dr. Frederick Campbell, Fred Campbell
Consulting, Canada
Prof. Anthony J. Lewis, Louisiana State

University, USA
Prof. Gabriel B. Ogunmola, Nigeria Academy
of Sciences, Nigeria
Dr. Yuichi Ono, United Nations
Prof. Qu Guosheng, National Earthquake
Response Support Service, China
Prof. Cheng Xiaotao, Institute of Water

Resources and Hydropower Research, China
Dr. Jose Rubiera, National Forecast Center,

Cuba
Prof. Jamilur Reza Choudhury, Vice Chancellor,

BRAC University, Bangladesh
Dr. Jane Sexton, Geoscience Australia,

Australia
Mr. K. Harald Drager, President, The International Emergency Management Society, Norway
Prof. Slobodan P. Simonovic, Institute for

Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Canada
Dr. Feng Qiang, Center for Earth Observation

and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of
Sciences
Dr. David T. Soong, USGS-Illinois Water

Science Center, USA
Dr. Nina Frolova, Russian Academy of Sciences,

Russia
Dr. Vern Singhroy, Canada Center for Remote

Sensing, Canada
Prof. John van Genderen, International

Institute for Geo-Information Science and
Earth Observation, The Netherlands
Dr. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi, International Center

for Water Hazard and Risk Management,
UNESCO
Dr. Lars Hernroth, Royal Swedish Academy

of Sciences, Sweden
Prof. Xu Yinglong, China Meteorological

Administration, China
Prof. Fumihiko Imamura, Tohoku University,

Japan
Prof. Yu Fujiang, State Oceanic Administration,

China
Prof. John Ario Katili, Indonesian Academy

of Sciences, Indonesia
Dr. Arthur Lerner-Lam, LDEO-Seismology
Geolog y and Tectonophysics L amontDoherty Earth Obser vation, Columbia
University, USA
Natural Disaster Mitigation IAP Report
Staff
Ms. Ling Thompson, British Royal Society
Ms. Liu Jie, Center for Earth Observation and
Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences
ii
IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation
Foreword
The catastrophic tsunami in the Indian Ocean
on December 26, 2004 inflicted tremendous
l o ss e s i n human lives and prop er t ies
upon the coastal countries. As part of the
response to the major natural disasters,
the InterAcademy Panel on International
Issues (IAP) launched the Natural Disaster
Mitigation Initiative in early 2005 in order
to alleviate the impact of natural disasters
through scientific and technological means,
review the applications of science and
technology in natural disaster relief, and
set the course for future endeavor for the
scientific and technological community.
The Project led by the Chinese Academy of
Sciences (CAS), was joined by academies
of Bangladesh, Cuba, Japan, the Netherlands,
Sweden, and the United States, followed later by
their counterparts in Australia, Canada, India,
and Nigeria, etc. Based on this, the Natural
Disaster Mitigation Study Panel of IAP was
formed in April, 2005.
carry out the research in natural disaster relief

through scientific and technological means,
minimizing the damage caused by natural
disasters through knowledge innovation. So
far, extraordinary achievements have been
scored worldwide in terms of disaster relief,
leading to remarkable benefits, in which
science and technology have been playing a
prominent role.
The Study Panel has completed this detailed

and insightful research report through several
years unremitting efforts. Noteworthy is
the fact that during the execution of the
project, a number of natural disasters of
great severity occurred in several countries
successively. These catastrophic events have
deepened our belief in the significance of the
Natural Disaster Mitigation initiative and
alerted us to the importance and urgency of
applying science and technology to natural
disaster mitigation, which calls for concerted
efforts by all mankind. The scientific and
technological community should vigorously
However, due to the lack of effective forecast

capacity with respect to earthquakes, tsunamis
and landslides, the human casualty and property
losses are disastrous. The global scientific and
technological community should cooperate and
make joint efforts to overcome all the scientific
and technological hurdles to natural disaster
relief. Moreover, cooperation and exchange
should be strengthened in research on disaster
mechanisms, monitoring and early-warning
efforts, risk evaluations, disaster forecasts
and defenses against natural disasters, and
the sharing of disaster information provided
by space-based monitoring. Special attention
Though damages arising from natural

disasters are on the rise due to the vigorous
and intensified development of the economy
and society, as well as climate change, human
casualties have declined b ecaus e of a
GREATER understanding of the disaster
mechanism, and the improvement of the
monitoring system and growth in our
forecasting capabilities. On geological disaster
relief, significant progress has been made
in the application of effective engineering
approaches to disaster prevention.
iii
should be paid to assisting developing and

underdeveloped countries in the promotion
of disaster relief technologies so as to enhance
their risk management and rapid reaction
capabilities.
Upon the publication of this report, we would
like to express our sincere thanks to the Study
Panel of Natural Disaster Mitigation Project
and participating member academies for their
earnest efforts in completing such a quality
research report. We firmly believe that the
report will play a positive role in international
disaster mitigation.
Professor Chen Zhu

Minister of Health, China
Co-Chair, InterAcademy Panel
on International Issues
Professor Howard Alper

Chair of the Government of Canadas Science,
Technology and Innovation Council
Co-Chair, InterAcademy Panel
on International Issues
iv
Preface
The great earthquake that occurred in the
Indian Ocean on December 26, 2004 caused
an unprecedented large tsunami, which
successively struck more than ten coastal
countries and resulted in about 300,000
deaths and severe economic losses. The
whole world was shocked by the tsunami and
governments and scientific community all
over the world were forced to reflect on the
issue: how could mankind effectively utilize
science and technology to cope with similar
serious natural disasters? Many international
efforts have been made to explore the
serious problem. The InterAcademy Panel
on International Issues (IAP) took prompt
action. The IAP co-chairs, Prof. Yves Qur
and Prof. Chen Zhu, issued a written proposal
appealing for the joint actions of the IAP
community to deal with tsunami and other
serious natural disasters, which won warm
support from IAP member academies.
The IAP approved an initiative entitled
Global Natural Hazards and Disaster
Reduction at its executive committee meeting
held in Stockholm in February, 2005. The
study panel, in which the scientists came
from a few national academies, finished the
work (Phase I) in September 2005. At the
IAP EC meeting held in Shanghai in October
2005, the title was changed to Natural
Disaster Mitigation. Thus IAP approved the
initiation of the Phase II research work and
encouraged the participation of more national
academies.
Since 2006, the study panel has held series of
international workshops and meetings, and

the disaster reduction work of IAP has been
effectively advanced. Questionnaire survey in
the subject of natural disaster reduction was
disseminated to the IAP member academies
through the IAP secretariat. A dedicated IAP
disaster mitigation project website and FTP
site were set up accordingly.
The report of IAPs natural disaster mitigation initiative has been completed after 3
years dedication. It is worth mentioning that
many serious natural disasters have occurred
around the world during the initiative.
Hurricane Katrina happened in the Gulf
of Mexico in 2005, leading to enormous
economic losses and over 1,400 deaths in
the USA. In 2007 a huge landslide in the
Philippines induced by the heavy rainstorms
took several thousand lives instantly. In the
same year an earthquake in Pakistan caused
nearly 80,000 deaths. Hurricane Nargis
hit Burma in May 2008, resulting in over
130,000 fatalities. Immediately afterwards
a massive earthquake in Wenchuan, China
caused tremendous economic losses, and
69,000 people died while 18,000 were
missing. It shows the necessity of the IAP
disaster mitigation initiative and the long
way yet to go in the battle between mankind
and natural disasters. Disaster mitigation
through science is a subject of enduring
significance.
The report mainly covers three natural disasters
including earthquake, tropical cyclone and
storm surge, and flood and drought, which
cause greatest human and economic impact. We

divide these disasters into two types: the first is
where the occurrence mechanisms are relatively
clear, such as tropical cyclone, storm surge,
flood and drought; and the second type, such as
earthquake, where the occurrence mechanism
is still not yet clear. When addressing the
former disasters, in addition to further
strengthening the mechanism study, we
should pay closer attention to the research
in forecasting techniques, strengthen the
medium and long term forecasting ability, and
enhance the construction of monitoring and
pre-warning technology to a greater extent.
For the latter disasters, we should deepen
and broaden the study of the occurrence
mechanism, explore the forecasting methods,
carry out comprehensive interdisciplinary
studies, improve the ability of collecting
and extracting abnormal information of
nature, as well as the ability of comprehensive
analysis and scientific judgment. There
are many kinds of technologies for natural
disaster mitigation, but earth observation
is recognized as one of the most effective
means. This report gives a description and
analysis on this point. Meanwhile, we also took
the emergency monitoring and assessment of
earth observation on Wenchuan Earthquake as
a special case study in the report.
Disaster mitigation is a systematic issue which
includes basic scientific research, disaster
risk assessment, technical support system
development, construction of monitoring and
pre-warning system, disaster management,
and education, etc. Disaster mitigation
involves not only national governments, but
also international organizations, as well as the
community and its members. This report puts
forward scientific recommendations on the
issue of natural disaster mitigation.
Mankind should fully utilize scientific and
technological means to mitigate natural
vi
disasters, among w hich the s cientif ic

understanding of natural disasters is of
great importance. While we recognize that
phenomena now considered disasters have
occurred throughout the earths 4.5 billion
years, and helped to form our planet, the growth
of human life on the planet has increased the
significance of such events. Human activities
impact on the natural world, and in the face of
natural disasters, mankind should adopt the
philosophy of mans harmonious coexistence
with nature. Questions such as how natural
disasters will change in the context of global
warming, and how mankind should adapt
to the change or mitigate such situations
are waiting for us to explore and solve. As
the saying goes, The way ahead is long! I
see no ending, yet high and low, Ill search
with my will unbending. The scientific
and technological circle must shoulder the
responsibility for in-depth research on the
relation between global change and natural
disasters.
Finally, I would like to take this opportunity
to express my gratitude to everybody for their
effective work and unselfish devotion to the
publication of this book. First of all, I am
deeply indebted to IAP co-chairs Prof. Chen
Zhu and Prof. Howard Alper, former IAP
co-chair Prof. Yves Qur, and all of the
Executive Committee members for their
constant guidance to this study over the
past few years. I am grateful for the project
supporting organizationChinese Academy
of Sciences. I thank my study panel colleagues
from different countries. Special thanks go to
Mr. Wang Zhenyu, Dr. Lars Hernroth and Ms.
Ling Thompson, who have made painstaking
efforts to edit the work. My thanks also
go to my colleague and friend Prof. Wang
Angsheng, who retired when the second
phase started. However, the great deal of work
he did in the first phase laid solid foundation
for the completion of the whole project. My

heartfelt appreciation goes to my colleagues at
the Center for Earth Observation and Digital
Earth (CEODE), CAS, who have done a large
amount of substantial work and coordination
for the implementation of the project,
especially Dr. Feng Qiang and Ms. Liu Jie.
Prof. Guo Huadong

Center for Earth Observation and
Digital Earth
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chair of Study Panel
IAP Natural Disaster Mitigation Project
vii
viii
Acknowledgements
The Study Panel thanks the InterAcademy
Panel on International Issues, especially IAP
co-chairs Prof. Chen Zhu and Prof. Howard
Alper, former IAP co-chair Prof. Yves
Qur, and the IAP Executive Committee,
for recognizing the urgency of the topic and
providing the opportunity to undertake this
important study.
The Study Panel acknowledges the many
individuals and organizations who have
shared information and provided suggestions
that have helped shape the report.
The Study Panel would like to express sincere
gratitude to the Science Academies that
responded to the questionnaire circulated
by the Study Panel: Albanian Academy of
Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences
(CAS), Academia Sinica, National Academy
of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences
( A N C E F N ) of A r g e nt i n a , Au s t r a l i a n
Academy of Science, Cuban Academy of
Sciences, The Academy of Athens, Indian
National Science Academy (INSA), Science
Council of Japan (SCJ), Academy of Sciences
Malaysia, Academy Council of the Royal
Society of New Zealand, Pakistan Academy
of Sciences (PAS), Royal Swedish Academy
of Sciences (RSAS), as well as the scientific
organizations from Jamaica. Their input
and suggestions are woven throughout the
report. The working group wishes to thank
ICSU (International Council for Science)
and AASA (Association of Academies of
Sciences in Asia) for their support and
cooperation.
The Study Panel is grateful to those who

participated in the several workshops
held over the course of this project. These
participants provided valuable insights that
identified major strategic challenges and
opportunities, which effectively helped the
Study Panel in guiding its deliberations and
in the drafting of this report. The workshops
included:
International Workshop on Natural
Disaster Mitigation, September 29-30,
2005;
The 16th Thailand CODATA DSAO Task
Group Conference, January 12-13, 2006;
International Workshop on Natural Disasters
& Emergency Management, September
22-24, 2007;
Joint Conference by CODATA TGs, IAP, and
UN GAID, December 4-5, 2007;
IAP International Workshop, May 24-26,
2008.
The study panel also owes a special debt of
gratitude to the following CAS members
and senior administrators for their thoughtprovoking and strategic advice to the
program: Prof. Sun Shu, Prof. Ding Yihui,
Prof. Fu Congbin, Prof. Jiang Jingshan,
Prof. Liu Changming, Prof. Shi Yaolin, Prof.
Xu Jianmin, Prof. Ma Zongjin, Prof. Mu
Rongping, and Prof. Cao Jinghua.
The Study Panel appreciates the contributions of experts who prepared background
ix
papers that provided the essential building

blocks for the report. Those involved are Ma
Jianwen, Li Guoqing, Wang Changlin, Dong
Qing, Huang Jun, Zhang Li, Zhang Lu, Shen
Guozhuang, Liu Chuansheng, and Qiu Yubao.
Special thanks to Liu Zhen, Zhang Yuhong,
and Gao Liang for editing assistance. Data
and reference support from relevant sources

are duly acknowledged.
Moreover, the 973 National Basic Research
Program of China Earth Observation for
sensitive factors of global change: mechanisms
and methodologies (2009CB723900) has also
given their full support to this Project.
Executive Summary
Background
The devastating Indian Ocean tsunami of
December 2004 highlighted the lack of
preparedness and lack of data-sharing among
the affected countries. Nearly a quarter of a
million people lost their lives, and over 1.6
million were displaced from their homes.
In the aftermath of this shocking event, IAP
members decided to activate the Academies
and their scientists in efforts to increase
international cooperation in research, datasharing and application of modern technology
for disaster mitigation.
As proposed by the Chinese Academy of
Sciences (CAS), agreed upon and approved
by the IAP Executive Committee Meeting in
February, 2005, the IAP initiative on Natural
Disaster Mitigation was launched as an IAP
response to the Indian Ocean tsunami and more
generally to natural disaster mitigation. CAS
was to act as the lead Academy for the initiative
and member academies from Bangladesh,
Cuba, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, U.S., and
Indonesia joined the initiative.
The six member academies quickly nominated
their experts to join the working group. Later
on, experts from Canada, Australia, Norway,
Nigeria and UN assisted in the initiative.
Between 2005 and 2008, a number of workshops were held, which formed task groups to
work on establishing and sharing natural
disaster databases, and ensuring their manageNatural Disaster Mitigation IAP Report
ment, standardization and quality control.

CAS also held training courses on disaster
management and mitigation for scientists
from developing countries.
Since the start of this initiative, several natural
disasters have occurred, such as Hurricane
Katrina in the USA, Hurricane Nargis in
Myanmar, and the Wenchuan Earthquake in
Sichuan Province of China. These devastating
disasters, resulting human suffering, and the
socio-economic set-backs caused by these events
clearly showed the need for increased international
cooperation in disaster preparedness, data
collection and sharing, and public awareness.
The Working Group decided to produce
three documents. The major report provides
scientific descriptions of earthquakes, tropical
cyclones, storm surges, floods and droughts,
selected for study due to the extent of their
destructive power and numbers of lives
affected. The report also covers international
disaster reduction activities and technological
applications for natural disaster mitigation.
It has the specific purpose of providing a
scientific and practical guide to Academies
of Sciences, with examples of good practices
in implementing mitigation measures. It
contains recommendations for actions where
the Academies can play a vital role, and thus
support other international activities such as
the planned ICSU programme for Integrated
Research on Disaster Risk.
The second report is an Executive Summary
of the Report, with a final Statement of Recom xi
mendations to IAP being produced.
Scientific Understanding of
Natural Disasters
Natural hazards resulting from geophysical
and hydrometeorological events are uncontrollable forces that impact the environment
in which we live. Earthquakes and volcanic
eruptions can alter the earths topography,
while flooding and drought have a great
impact on life forms. Often, hazards become
disasters that cause human and economic
losses, and the magnitude of these losses is
increasing. Complex infrastructure, population
growth and widespread poverty are some of
the reasons, but human activities such as land
use practices exacerbate the effects.
This is evident both in developing and developed
countries. Further, there is now convincing
evidence that climate change is contributing
to an increasing frequency and intensity of
some types of events.
However, as we prepare to meet these changing hydrometeorological conditions, we must
use science and technology to explore the
potentially positive aspects of a changing
climate.
Lack of scientific and technological tools or
experience cannot explain why so many of
the hazards become disasters. Knowledge,
experience and tools exist, but there is
a problem of access to, and sharing of,
information and data, and a need for science
to be incorporated into social and political
decision-making. To reduce risks and
vulnerability, to mitigate the effects of natural
disasters, and to improve rescue operations,
xii
a multi-disciplinary approach is necessary,

where we accept the need to involve natural,
social and political sciences. These issues are
of global concern.
Survey on Natural Disaster

Mitigation
To determine the level of natural disaster
mitigation work around the world, the IAP
Working Group distributed a questionnaire
to the member academies of IAP. To date, 14
replies have been received from Academies
in Cuba, India, Malaysia, Argentina, Jamaica,
Japan, Chinese Taipei, China, Greece, Albania,
Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan and Sweden.
The questionnaire had 15 questions in
5 categories, covering the evaluation of
natural disaster mitigation, general severity
estimates of major natural disasters, research
activities in these areas, public education and
emergency response system infrastructure,
and best practices. The analysis of the
ans we rs showe d t h at : b a s i c scientific
research on natural disaster mitigation is
critical; the most hazardous major natural
disasters are floods, storms, droughts and
earthquakes, including tsunamis; the research
work is mostly financed by governments
and conducted by professional agencies and
academic institutions. Only one-third of
the replies indicated that financial support
was sufficient. International cooperation
programmes are, however, being carried out,
especially between developed and developing
countries.
The questionnaire and the analysis, are
presented in the main report.
International Activities in
Natural Disaster Mitigation
As natural disasters have become major
threats to human life and the world economy,
governments and international organizations
are cooperating to promote global and
regional risk management, and to improve the
capability to mitigate the effects of disasters.
Early international disaster reduction activities
can be traced back to the International Decade
for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR, 19901999). It raised awareness of the significance of
natural disaster reduction. In 1994, the First
World Conference on Disaster Reduction
was held in Yokohama, Japan, establishing
the guiding principles for the Decade for
Natural Disaster Reduction. In December,
1999, the UN General Assembly adopted the
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(ISDR) to implement follow-up action for the
achievements of the decade, and to promote
the continuing development of disaster
reduction around the world. Then, in 2005,
the Second World Conference on Disaster
Reduction was held in Hyogo Prefecture,
Japan, and the Action 2005-2015: Building
the Resilience of Nations and Communities
to Disasters (Hyogo Framework for Action,
HFA), was adopted by the Conference, which
has become the international blueprint for
disaster reduction. In December, 2006, the
United Nations General Assembly agreed
to establish the United Nations Platform
for Space-based Information for Disaster
Management and Emergency ResponseUNSPIDER as a new United Nations
programme.
This is a gateway to space-based information
for disaster management support, serving
as a bridge to connect disaster management
and space communities, and by being a faciliNatural Disaster Mitigation IAP Report
tator of capacity-building, and institutional

strengthening, for developing countries in
particular. Along with such UN activities,
some regional international organizations
and international science and technology
organizations have made efforts to encourage
regional cooperation on natural disaster
mitigation. One of the major European efforts
is the International Charter Space and Major
Disasters initiated by the European Space
Agency (ESA) and the French space agency
(CNES) in 1999, which aims to provide a
unified system of space data acquisition
and delivery to those affected by natural or
man-made disasters. Now, the Charter has
expanded into a world-wide programme and
plays an important role in natural disaster
mitigation activities.
In Asia, the most disaster-prone continent,
the Asian Disaster Reduction & Response
Network (ADRRN) was formed in 2002
after agreement between the Asia Disaster
Reduction Center (ADRC) in Kobe, Japan and
the United Nations Office for Coordination
of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA). This
brought together more than 30 NGOs from
all over Asia to work together for Disaster
Reduction & Response.
Earthquake Disasters
An earthquake is a sudden movement of
the Earths lithosphere (its crust and upper
mantle), which is caused by the release of
built-up stresses within rocks along geological
faults, or by the movement of magma in
volcanic areas. Smaller earthquakes occur
frequently, but annually only as many as 18-20
reach a magnitude above Ms 7. Approximately
40 disastrous earthquakes have occurred since
xiii
the end of the 20th century, and the total

death toll is nearly 1.7 million. This number is
about 50% of all victims of natural disasters.
Most earthquakes (80%) occur in the oceans,
mainly in the subduction zones. Earthquakes
occurring in such regions are relatively large
and they are also deep. These earthquakes
can cause tsunamis. Continental earthquakes
are less frequent than those in the ocean
and they occur mainly on the boundaries of
continental plates or the boundaries of active
blocks.
Like other disasters, earthquakes and tsunamis can be sudden, seriously destructive, and
create long-lasting social, environmental and
economic problems. However, compared
with weather-related or biological disasters,
damage from earthquakes is multiplied by
the impossibility of accurate and timely
forecasting, and afterwards by difficulty in
timely response and rescue efforts.
Earthquake disaster risk zonation is an important tool in earthquake disaster prevention.
Developed countries have well-defined a
large amount of earthquake disaster zoning
and risk assessment maps. It is necessary to
evaluate the potential dangers of earthquakes
by improving theory and methodology of
risk assessment, based on seismic activity and
active fault monitoring. It is also crucial to
document disaster-caused changes, disaster
degree, risk, and loss estimations.
As well, engineering analysis for structural
collapse prevention and deformation of
buildings in the event of a major earthquake
must be put in place everywhere. Related
research must continue to be carried out
on the seismic structure of active faults,
mechanisms of earthquake generation,
assessment of potential earthquake activity,
xiv
and potential losses.

The suddenness and destructiveness of
earthquakes often result in rescue decisions
being delayed, chaotic, unplanned and
unscientific, thus resulting in greater loss. It
is critical to improve the means and methods
of rescue in all countries. In order to improve
the capabilities of emergency response and
rescue, research should comprehensively
review emergency rescue systems, rapid disaster
evaluation technologies, communications,
and decision-making methods.
There is also a great need for improved early
warning systems. The lack of such a system
resulted in the long-distance devastating
damage following the Indian Ocean tsunami
of 2004.
A systematic assessment of emergency and
assistance needs before an earthquake would
serve in determining the disaster extent,
quantify assistance needed, and establish a
disaster planning database and disaster-needs
forecast. The resulting disaster aid model can
help to rapidly make decisions on the level of
assistance within 2-3 hours after large-scale
earthquakes and an hour after middle-smallscale earthquakes. The M s 8.0 Wenchuan
Earthquake, for example, caused numerous
deaths and injuries, cut off electricity,
communications, transportation and water
supplies. Major difficulties were encountered
at the time for rescue and disaster-relief
operations because of the unknown situation
on-site. Chinese Academy of Sciences, in
cooperation with other Organizations, used
remote sensing techniques to work on disaster
relief immediately. Through acquiring,
processing, interpreting and analyzing remote
sensing data, a series of reports on disaster
reduction were immediately submitted for
earthquake assistance and disaster relief at all

government levels.
Tropical Cyclones and Storm

Surge Disasters
Tropical cyclones are warm-core meteorological systems that develop over tropical
and subtropical ocean waters, with a surface
temperature of 26.5 or more, and located
under areas of small changes in wind
velocities with height.
There are, on average, some 90 tropical
cyclones annually (including tropical storms,
strong tropical storms, cyclonic storms,
typhoons, hurricanes, strong c yclonic
storms). Their distribution is countered in
the northwest Pacific Ocean, the northeast
Pacific Ocean, the southwest Indian Ocean,
the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and
the southwest Pacific Ocean, with of 29%, 18%,
15%, 12% and 12% respectively. Storm surges
are caused by tropical cyclones, caused by strong
winds and sudden change of atmospheric
pressure near their centers. This causes a
sudden and sharp rise in coastal water levels.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
statistics show that tropical c yclones,
associated storm surge, and torrential rains
are the most destructive hazards in terms of
deaths and material losses. According to the
Third Assessment Report on Global Climate
Change issued by the WMO and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), since 1750, overall climate warming
has been a result of human activities. The
surface temperature of most tropical waters
has already increased by 0.2-0.5 degrees. There
are indications that, in the future, tropical
cyclones may increase in intensity, although
there are uncertainties regarding the overall

frequency of tropical cyclones in a warming
world. With increasing globalization, it can
be inferred that disasters related to typhoons
will have increasing socio-economic impact,
particularly in developing countries.
In an attempt to reduce the effects of cyclones
and storm surges, science and technology
have developed surveillance systems and
methodologies for disaster prediction and
early-warning. These systems of spatial
obser vation technolog y, supported by
powerful computers and telecommunications
facilities, have resulted in the development of
numerical weather prediction techniques that
have permitted significantly-improved realtime forecasts of weather-related hazardous
phenomena. Some of the major advances
of these sciences include: the availability
of an unprecedented amount of new nontraditional observations, in particular from
earth observation satellites and imaging
radars; considerable progress in the scientific
understanding of dynamical and physical
p ro c e s s e s i n t h e at m o s p h e re a n d i t s
interaction with the oceans.
Although over the past two decades, several
nations have made remarkable progress in
typhoon surveillance, forecasting and alerts,
there are still material predictive errors of
the estimation of storm tracks, and in the
accuracy of predicting their intensity, path,
wind and associated precipitation of tropical
cyclones. Forecasting and early warning
systems for storm surges have mainly been
established in developed countries, but Cuba
and Bangladesh are examples of developing
countries where new sur veillance and
forecasting systems have had very positive
impact on disaster mitigation.
xv
Flood and Drought-Induced

Disasters
Floods and droughts have devastating consequences. According to the Asian Disaster
Reduction Center, half the population
worldwide who suffered natural disasters
was affected by floods and one third by
drought over the period of 1975 to 2005.
The World Disaster Report, published by the
International Federation of Red Cross and
the Red Crescent Societies, showed that over
the past 20 years, deaths resulting from floodrelated disasters, including floods, landslides,
storm surges and tsunamis, accounted for
83.7%, 2.7%, 12.4%, 0.7% and 0.5% of the
total disaster-related fatalities in Asia, Africa,
America, Europe and Oceania, respectively.
The statistics also indicated that developing
countries experienced more casualties if they
were struck by natural disasters.
A l t h o u g h a v a r i e t y o f w at e r c o nt r o l
engineering projects were built in the 20th
century, the rising trend of property loss in
terms of absolute value due to floods has not
changed, even in developed countries.
The increasing losses resulting from floods and
droughts in both developed and developing
countries indicate that disaster mitigation is
not a simple matter of economic development,
but a more complex issue in which science
and technology should play an important
role.
in the future. The probability that these

events will cause great damage has also
increased due to rapid population growth
and construction in areas of high flood risk.
Increased vulnerability of life and property
brings with it an increased demand for
protection against the elements of nature.
However, traditional methods of flood
control and drought relief have become
more complex as we face a deterioration in
water distribution, intensification of soil
erosion, degradation in aquatic ecology and
overall regional water shortages.
With existing and the future challenges related
to floods and drought, there are several
crucial issues facing science and governments.
Under the premise that floods are inevitable,
how can we reduce fatalities and property
loss and improve our technologies to take
advantage of the positive aspects of floods
and thus transform negative relationships
into beneficial interactions between humans
and nature? In order to plan for management
for the disasters, we need to select a risk
management mode that fits local conditions.
Overall, we must exercise non-engineering
measures including law, economics, administration and education to enhance the
integrity and long-term benefits of flood
control engineering projects. Finally, we
have to perfect the emergency response
management system and operations for severe
floods.
The mainstream water-related management

strategy in the new century has shifted from
single-purpose engineering measure to
comprehensive management for flood and
drought prevention.
Earth Observation Technologies

for Natural Disaster
Mitigation
With climate change, extreme weather events

are predicted to occur more frequently
Earth Observation (EO) comprises in situ

observation, which is direct observation
xvi
carried out in close proximity to the object or

phenomenon of interest, and remote sensing,
or observation from a distance. There is an
increasing use of EO technologies in post
disaster damage assessment.
Examples of EO at work today include the
thousands of data buoys operating in the
worlds oceans, hundreds of thousands of
land-based environment monitoring stations,
tens of thousands of observations by radio
sonds and aircraft, and over 50 environmental
satellites orbiting the globe.
Earth Obser vation technologies utilize
information from space and airborne systems
through sensors. From decades of work on
disaster relief, it has been shown that EO
can provide considerable help, especially
using methods of optical and microwave
technologies. Optical sensors have a long
history, and have become more and more
accurate. Their technical advantage gives
them an irreplaceable role in EO. Microwave
sensors are useful in situations where factors
such as clouds or darkness impede the work
of optical sensors. The most frequently
used microwave sensors are microwave
radiometers, scatterometers, radar altimeters,
and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Only
the microwave radiometers are passive remote
sensing sensors, while all the others are active
sensors.
In terms of earthquake disaster mitigation
and relief, EO is used for regional structural/
tectonic mapping and other topographic
and landuse base-mapping for emergency
relief logistics, estimation of settlement and
structural vulnerability (e.g. building design)
and exposure (e.g. proximity to active
earthquake zones). EO also contributes
to damage mapping using high resolution
satellites, which is a primary need for relief
agencies that need to locate victims and
assess risk. SAR interferometry (InSAR) is

increasingly used for the mapping of seismic
ground deformation.
InS-AR data provides information on pre-, coand post-seismic deformation, and therefore
contributes to the mitigation phase by
adding to the spatial understanding of fault
mechanics dynamics and strain.
For floods, both optical and radar satellites
have been widely used to quantify catchment
basin characteristics, such as watershed
boundaries, elevation and slope, land cover,
as well as variables such as soil moisture,
snow pack, temperature, vegetation indices,
and evapotranspiration. They have also been
used operationally for flood and drought
monitoring, mapping, early warning and
damage assessment. As a weather-related
disaster, the study of droughts have used
a number of satellite-based programs that
are providing improved details relating
to existing and projected. However, the
potential contribution of existing satellites is
still not yet fully exploited.
Typhoons and hurricanes occur in the vast
tropical ocean/seas where they are mainly
monitored using EO. Current research is
focusing on improving EO for weather
forecasting and also improving the timeliness,
qu a l it y, an d l ong - t e r m c ont i nu it y of
observations to revise current forecasting
models.
Recommendations
This report has the specific purpose of
providing a scientific and practical guide
to Academies of Sciences, with examples of
good practice of mitigation measures and
technique. The intention is not to propose a
xvii
research programme on disaster mitigation.

Many extensive international programs exist,
while others are in the planning phase, All
of these illustrate the global concern for the
importance of increasing our efforts to reduce
the effects of natural disasters.
In our efforts to prevent and mitigate the
effects of natural disasters we need to apply
existing scientific technologies and tools. We
need to share and spread information and we
need to work in an inter-disciplinary manner,
involving natural, economic, social and
political sciences. Of equal importance is the
transmission of this knowledge to decisionmakers who are in a position to implement
new policies. Applying current knowledge
is, however, not enough. Improvements
in science and technology are needed and
suggestions for such actions are included
in the chapters describing specific natural
disasters.
The InterAcademy Panel proposes that a
network of close to 100 Academies and their
scientists should become active participants
in this global effort to try to reduce disaster
losses through promoting relevant science,
and spreading the application of existing
knowledge and technologies. The Academies
should provide a venue for interaction
between scientists, governments and society
to achieve the goal of disaster reduction
by integrating existing research and best
practices into specific disaster-reduction
policies. The Academies could, in this way,
by means of their particular position, serve
as a bridge between on-going international
programmes and national decision-makers.
We recommend that:
Each member Academy should formulate
medium and long-term natural disaster
mitigation policies for adoption in their
xviii
own countries, emphasising the importance

of science-based decision-making, and
establish a platform of effective communication of these best practices.
IAP promotes workshops and seminars,
especially involving developing countries,
that bring together scientists and decisionmakers to exchange best practice and ideas.
IAP encourages the development of
research into Disaster Science, placing the
understanding of disaster phenomena against
the background of global environmental
change, earth system science and evolution
of the planet, and that natural disaster
mitigation research be carried out in the spirit
of harmony between man and nature.
Member Academies assist in education
and research programs on natural disaster
mitigation in schools and for the general
population with a view to increasing public
awareness of the threat of natural disasters
in their areas.
IAP establishes a Natural Disaster Mitigation
Special Task Force with participation by
member Academies. The Task Force would
be responsible for organizing workshops,
cooperative research programs, information
sharing and exchange, training, and provide
guidance on cutting-edge research.
IAP takes steps to ensure that funding is
provided for international exchange of
scientists, particularly those from nations
with less advanced experience and facilities
IA P i n c r e a s e s c o m mu n i c at i o n a n d
cooperation with relevant organizations
including the International Council for
Science (ICSU), The World Federation
of Engineering Organizations (WFEO),
munication technology.
The Global Earth Observation (GEO)

and International Strategy for Disaster
R e d u c t i on ( I SD R ) f or i n f or m at i on
exchange on effective policies and best
practices of disaster mitigation.
IAP should promote scientific and technical

assistance to developing countries lacking
mitigation facilities and capabilities.
IAP should promote efforts to improve

capacity for disaster monitoring, forecasting and early warning, by integrating the
technologies of spaceborne-airborne-insitu earth observation, data infrastructure,
modelling, and information and com-
IAP should encourage Governments and

Non-Government-Organizations to make
efforts towards bilateral or multilateral sound
policy agreements on disaster information
collection and sharing to strengthen
cooperation in disaster management.
xix
xx
Contents
Study Panel i
Foreword iii
Preface v
Acknowledgements ix
Executive Summary xi
1 Global Natural Disasters 1
2 International Disaster Reduction Activities 13
3 Earthquake Disasters 23
4 Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges 58
5 Flood and Drought Induced Disasters 73
6 Earth Observation for Natural Disaster Mitigation 86
7 Disaster Mitigation Strategies and Recommendations 112
Annex 1 Global Natural Disaster and Disaster Reduction Survey 117
Annex 2 Analyses on the Responses of the Questionnaire about
Natural Disaster Mitigation 120
Annex 3 Glossary 127
Annex 4 Wenchuan Earthquake Disaster Mitigation 130
References 143
xxi
xxii
Global Natural Disasters
1.1 Introduction
mitigation research.
Natural disasters have brought about devastating

economic losses and human suffering. Recent
examples include the Ms 9.3 earthquake in
Indonesia and the subsequent tsunami in
the Indian Ocean in December 2004, the
hurricane in USA in August, 2005, the severe
snow storm in southern China in February
2008, and another adversity that violently hit
China in the summer of 2008, the Wenchuan
Earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 on May
12, 2008 in Sichuan Province of China. The
last two disasters badly affected the economic
growth of the worlds largest developing
country, China.
1.2 Overview of Major

Global Natural
Disasters
The histor y of mankind is a histor y of

struggle between man and nature, and natural
disasters are a major problem affecting mans
lives, security, and development. While we
are unable to reverse the forces of nature
once they begin, science and technology has
given us tools to reduce the effects of natural
hazards and minimize the destruction they
cause. However, our ability to mitigate the
effects of natural disasters are now challenged
by additional problems posed by climate
change, which are likely to exacerbate the
problems caused by natural disasters.
Thus, it is important to strengthen our
capability for disaster emergency management as well as to intensify scientific disaster
1.2.1 Natural Hazards and

Natural Disasters
As natural phenomena in the process of the
Earths evolution, natural hazards such as
earthquakes, volcanoes, floods and storms
have been occurring on the earth since its
formation.
When it occurs in areas remote from human
inhabitation, these hazards are natural phenomena, that do not normally cause concern,
and can even sometimes result in creation
of beneficial resources such as new river
deltas and fertile soil, for example, around
volcanoes. Many natural hazards are related,
e.g. earthquakes in the ocean can result in
tsunamis, and a storm can lead directly to
heavy rain, and indirectly lead to flooding,
then landslide or mudflow. A natural disaster
is the consequence of a natural hazard,
e.g. hurricane, drought, volcanic eruption,
earthquake, or landslide, which adversely
affects human communities. For example,
hurricanes can bring forth floods; earthquakes
can result in building collapse and landslides;
1
drought can lead to famine and disease.
1.2.2 Human Vulnerability

Human vulnerability to natural disasters,
determined by physical, social, economic,
and environmental factors of the community,
when exacerbated by the lack of planning
or appropriate emergency management,
could increase financial, environmental
damage or losses of human life and property.
The resulting loss depends on the public
capacity to bear or resist the disaster, or their
resilience. A natural hazard never results in a
natural disaster in areas without vulnerability,
e.g. strong earthquakes in uninhabited areas.
In other words, the natural events simply
are not hazards or disasters without human
involvement.
1.2.3 Poverty and Natural

Disasters
It is often the cumulative impact of frequent
but small or medium-scale disasters that
cause the most losses, particularly to the poor.
Poor communities often struggle to meet
their own daily needs. They have little or no
financial and human capacity to address the
vulnerabilities and risks they are exposed to,
and hence do not recover easily from small,
cumulative losses. Poverty is also a major
factor increasing disaster risk, by increasing
a communitys vulnerability to disasters and
reducing its coping capacity. Poverty and
natural disaster vulnerability form a negative
feedback cycleif a disaster strikes, the
level of poverty in the community increases,
leading to increased vulnerability and disaster
risk.
In developing countries, poverty and poor
governance are aggravating natural disasters,
and natural disasters are worsening poverty
in return. A vicious spiral of poverty-natural
2
disaster vulnerability has been created. In

other words, disasters result when hazards
and vulnerable systems intersect. Therefore,
the assistances and aids on the disaster
mitigation in the developing countries
should be operated from a multidisciplinary
perspective including sociology, economics,
agriculture, environment studies, science,
engineering, and education.
Poverty is the dynamic for the unsustainable
activities of the people in developing countries
to meet basic survival needs. There are
various types of disasters occurring caused
eit her by human er ror or intent iona l
unilateral beneficial activities of human
beings, e.g. blocking of water flow by putting
dams or barrages in the main river flow
caused the excessive flood and river bank
erosion. Moreover, deforestation threats
inhabitants of the forests, and pollution of
drinkable water by release of toxic wastage
are causing silent disasters in the global arena
and killing thousands of people. Air pollution
by toxic fumes from the chemical factories is
another disaster caused by human beings.
Figure 1.1 shows the number of people that
have been affected by natural disasters from
1975 to 2000 by income and disaster type.
More than 95% of all deaths as a result of
natural disasters are in the least developed
countries, which have the greatest number of
people affected by natural disasters.
On the other hand, poverty alleviation can
help reduce disaster risk where it has an
active, in-built focus on disaster issues. The
integration of risk reduction into poverty
reduction initiatives does not only help
vulnerable communities to build resilience
to disasters, but is also a safeguard to
protect development gains and ensure the
sustainability of poverty reduction initiatives.
Finally, risk reduction measures can promote
Low Income
2 237 777 288 (55.58%)
Lower Middle
Income
1 655 512 440 (41.12%)
Upper Middle
Income
82 328 879 (2.04%)
High Income
50 581 617 (1.26%)

0
500
Drought
Earthquake
Epidemio
Flood
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Million people
Slide
Volcano
Wind storm
Others
Source: ADRC, EM-DAT, CRED, University of Louvain, Belgium
Figure 1.1 World overview from 1975-2000 of number of people affected categorized by income class
and disaster type
poverty reduction by helping the poorer avoid

the impoverishing effects of disasters.
1.2.4 Temporal and Spatial

Distribution of Natural
Disasters
Natural disasters occur all around the world,
but more frequently in some hotspots. UNEP/
GRID has given the natural hazard hotspots
map by risk type (Figure 1.2). Drought brings
more economic loss in southern North
America, eastern South America, southern
Africa, and around Oceania. Flood leads to
more economic damages in Southeastern

Asia, Southeastern America, and Western
Europe. Some areas suffer alternating strikes
of different disasters.
According to ISDR statistics in 2005, of the
three types of natural disasters, namely hydrometeorological disaster, geophysical disaster,
and biological disaster, hydro-meteorological
disasters occurred much more frequently
between 1900 and 2005 than the other two
disasters and are still increasing. Based on
hydro-meteorological disaster statistics from
1970 to 2005 shown in Figure 1.3, flood and
High total economic loss risk
top 3 deciles at risk from
Drought only
Geophysical only
Hydro only
Drought and Hydro
Geophysical and Hydro
Drought and Geophysical
Drought, Hydro and Geophysical
Figure 1.2 Natural hazard hotspots by risk type
drought are the two most severe examples in

global hydrometeorological disasters.
Figure 1.3 shows the hydro-meteorological
disaster statistics between 1970 and 2005,
with storm, flood and drought occurring
most frequently. Figure 1.4 shows the global

costs of extreme weather events from 1950
to 2003. The economic loss statistic data of
great natural disasters in the last decades
show a dramatic increase in catastrophe
losses. The reasons for this development
200
Hydrometeorogical
Flood
150
d
Win
te
rela
Dr
ou
g
ht
&
50
m
Stor
disaste
rs
100
Slide
s
197
0
197
1
197
2
197
3
197
4
197
5
197
6
197
7
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
0
Year
Figure 1.3 Number of natural disasters by type (1970-2005) (from ISDR Disaster Statistics)
are manifold and encompass the increase

in world population and the simultaneous
concentration of people and values in large
conurbations, the development of highly
exposed regions and the high vulnerability of
modern societies, and finally changes in the
natural environment like global warming and
the related regional effects. As the underlying
factors for the observed loss trend remain
unchanged, a further increase in losses from

natural disasters is inevitable.
1.2.5 Global Major Natural

Disasters
Based on the analyses of disaster data in
terms of economic loss, death toll, and the
frequency of disaster occurrence, flood,
storm, and earthquake are found to be the
170 bn
90
80
Annual losses
$1bn
total economic losses
70
insured losses
60
average per decade
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1960
13
Source: Munich Re, 2004
16
1970
1980
29
Number of events
44
1990
72
1998
2003
Figure 1.4 Global costs of extreme weather events
major natural disasters which cause most

destruction to human societies. According
to German Reinsurance Company statistics,
damages caused by natural disasters from
1950 to 1999 were as follows:
1,400 thousand deaths, and
natural catastrophes:
Wind and Storm, e.g. tsunami, typhoon
and storm surge;
Earthquake;
Flood, and
Over $960 billion US dollar economic losses.

There are four major disasters among all
Others, e.g. volcano, geo-disaster, biodisaster, and fire, etc. See Figure 1.5.
50 %
Frequency
45%
Death Toll
Economic Loss
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Storm
Earthquake
Flood
Others
Figure 1.5 Ratio for frequency, death toll and economic loss 1950-1999
Conclusions:
The most frequent occurrence of disasters
are wind & storm (38%), earthquake (29%)
and flood (27%);
Disasters with the biggest death toll are
earthquake (47%), wind & storm (45%),
and flood (7%);
Disasters with the biggest economic losses
are earthquake (35%), flood (30%), and
wind & storm (28%).
To conclude, storms, earthquakes, and floods
are the most frequently occurring severe

global natural disasters. Another frequent
major natural disaster is drought which
develops gradually and lasts a long time, also
causing heavy economic losses.
The details of these major natural disasters and
their mitigation activities will be illustrated
respectively in Chapter 3 (Earthquake), Chapter
4 (Tropical Cyclone and Storm Surge), and
Chapter 5 (Flood and Drought). The related
scientific issues in natural disaster mitigation
are discussed in these chapters.
1.2.6 Recent Major Disasters

and International Relief
Efforts
There have been many natural disasters in the
past decade, which have led to great losses of
life and property. They have also demonstrated
t h e p o s i t i v e e f f e c t s o f i nt e r n at i o n a l
cooperation and assistance in the face of
natural disasters. The major disasters are
listed as follows:
1) Great Hanshin Earthquake (1995)
T he 1 9 9 5 Gre at Hansh i n E ar t hqu a ke
(Ms=6.9), commonly referred to as the Kobe
earthquake, was one of the most devastating
earthquakes ever to hit Japan; more than 5,500
were killed and over 26,000 injured. The
economic loss has been estimated at about
$US 200 billion. The earthquake resulted in
about 6,000 deaths and nearly 100 billion US
dollars economic losses. The International
Community, including China, the United
Nations, etc. provided over 1.7 billion US
dollars assistance.
2) Turkey Earthquake (1999)
The city of Izmet in northwestern Turkey was
struck by an earthquake with a magnitude
of 6.3 at 00:01 GMT 8/17/99. 15,135 people
were confirmed dead, over 30,000 estimated
to be missing and over 23,000 were injured.
Three months later, the city of Duzce in
northwestern Turkey was struck by an
earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 at 16:59
GMT 11/12/99, which caused 705 dead
and 5,000 injured with 80,000 people made
homeless.
These two successive major earthquakes
caused altogether an estimated 18,000 deaths
and 20 billion US dollars economic losses.
World Bank and European Investment
6
Bank loaned 757 million US dollars and

600 million Euros to Turkey, respectively.
UNICEF supported relief materials worth 7.3
million US dollars to the disaster areas. EU
contributed nearly 200 million euros worth of
economic aid and emergency humanitarian
assistance.
3) India Earthquake (2001)
The magnitude M s 7.9 earthquake killed
20,000 people and resulted in more than
2.1 billion US dollars of economic losses.
Asian Development Bank offered 8.5 billion
dollars emergency loans to India. China,
Pakistan, Tunisia and other countries sent
relief supplies and donations to earthquakestricken India.
4) Iran Earthquake (2003)
On December 26, 2003, the Ms 6.7 earthquake
struck the city of Bam in Iran, killing 26,000
people, injuring 30,000 and leaving 75,600
homeless.
UN, IRCC and other international organizations
actively implemented assistance. The United
Nations allocated the first batch of relief
materials worth 90,000 US dollars and sent
expert groups to assess earthquake damage.
China, Germany, Russia and more than 20
other countries provided funds, medical
equipments, and material aids to Iran, which
totalled millions of dollars.
5) Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004)
More than 100,000 people were killed and
at least one million people became homeless
in this disaster. A great relief effort was
undertaken after this disaster. In the short
period of 10 days, official commitment of
relief funds around the world was more than
5.2 billion US dollars and the total global civil
donation was over 1.8 billion US dollars.
8) Indonesia Earthquake (2006)
6) Hurricane Katrina (2005)
An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3 on the

Richter scale struck the area near the historic
city of Yogyakarta in Central Java, Indonesia
on May 27, 2005. The earthquake happened
in a densely populated area, causing more
than 6,000 deaths and serious economic
losses.
On August 26, 2005, a category 5 Hurricane

Katrina from the Caribbean landed southeast
of Florida. Seven states of the United States
suffered from the flood disasters, and New
Orleans of Louisiana was crushed. Hurricane
Katrina was one of the most serious natural
disasters in the history of the United States,
causing huge economic losses and heavy
casualties for the United States.
UNOCHA, ISDR and IRCC and other United
Nations agencies and countries around the
world provided assistance to disaster-stricken
area in various ways. Until September 6, 2005,
94 countries and international organizations
had already provided various kinds of assistance
to the United States, of which the national
official donation was close to 1 billion US
dollars.
7) South Asia Earthquake (2005)
A magnitude of M s 7.6 earthquake struck
cities and villages across the south of Asian
subcontinent and spread in Afghanistan on
October 8, 2005. More than 86,000 people
were killed, 100,000 people injured, and more
than 300 million people were homeless in the
horrible earthquake. Most of buildings in the
disaster-stricken area were destroyed.
In three days after the earthquake, Pakistan
had received international assistance amounting
to 300 million US dollars. International rescue
teams were sent to the hardest-hit Pakistan
earthquake zone to implement international
humanitarian relief.
The Chinese government decided to give

2 million US dollars, the United States 2.5
million US dollars, Australia 3 million
Australian dollars, Canada 1.8 million US
dollars, the United Kingdom 3 million pounds
of aid. Japan also provided 100 million yen
of disaster relief funds. The Consultative
Group on Indonesia which was composed of
representatives of the United States, Japan,
Canada, the United Kingdom, the European
Union, the World Bank, and other countries
and international organizations pledged 5.4
billion US dollars assistance to Indonesia.
9) Blizzard in the South of China in early 2008
In early 2008, a low-temperature freezing
rain and snow disaster suddenly hit the south
of China, which had not encountered such
weather in the past few decades. The disaster
was strong in intensity and broad in scope. It
lasted for a long time and caused enormous
losses. Until February 23, the disaster caused
129 deaths, 4 missing, and 1.66 million people
needed emergency resettlement. Besides,
119 thousand km 2 of crops were affected
and 485,000 houses collapsed. The direct
economic loss amounted to 151.65 billion
RMB. The disaster-stricken area received
funds of more than 40 million US dollars and
various types of aids from the United States,
Singapore, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and other
countries and regions.
7
10) Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan

Province in May 2008
A major earthquake measuring M s 8.0 on
the Richter scale jolted Wenchuan County,
Aba Prefecture in southwest Chinas Sichuan
Province at 0628 GMT (2:28 p.m. local time)
on Monday, May 12, causing 69,227 dead,
including 68,636 in Sichuan province, and
374,176 injured, with 18,222 missing. The
earthquake left about 4.8 million people
homeless. 100 thousand troops were sent to
the disaster area for rescue and rehabilitation
work. International assistance included
medical teams, specific searching and
rescuing teams, tents and other emergency
cargoes, etc.
1.3 Features of Natural

Disasters
E a c h t y p e of n atu r a l d i s a s te r c an b e
characterized by its formation, occurrence
and development, but they often share the
following features:
1.3.1 Harmfulness
Natural disasters have caused serious harm,
resulting in huge social, economic, and
environmental losses, and have affected
peoples livelihood and development. This is
considered to be the most common feature of
natural disasters.
1.3.2 Unexpectedness
A natural disaster often occurs suddenly and
without obvious warning signs. As people
are unaware of the event until it hits them,
casualties and losses tend to be more severe
than when there is time to take evasive action.
8
1.3.3 Chain Reaction

The occurrence of any natural disaster
may trigger other disasters. For example, a
strong earthquake may result in collapse of
houses, fires, and damage to power and water
supplies. If it occurs in the ocean, it may
induce tsunami.
1.3.4 Regional Scale

The type and frequency of natural disasters are
normally confined to a certain geographical
region. For example, tsunamis generally strike
coastal regions, while thunder storms, floods
and drought often hit monsoon climate
regions.
1.4 Science Connotation

in Natural Disaster
Mitigation
1.4.1 Scientific Understanding
of Natural Disaster
The earth is 4.6 billion years old, and extreme
phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes,
hurricanes, flooding have been part of its
developing process. Compared with the
earths age, the history of humans is just
a second long. But when natural hazards
disturb inhabited areas, disaster occurs. In
some societies, natural hazards or disasters
are viewed as wicked events, but their
existence is beyond human will.
Human s o ciety has acc umu late d r ich
knowledge in fighting against natural
disasters. Although natural disasters cannot
be stopped, human communities can take
measures to relieve the impact of disasters
with the progress of science and technology.
Sustainable socioeconomic development
should harmonize environmental protection

and disaster mitigation by way of adjustment
of mans activities.
1.4.2 Global Climate Change

and Major Natural
Disasters
Science can help in sustainable development.

R e du c i ng d i s a ste rs re qu i re s a mu lt i disciplinary approach to the study of natural
disasters and vulnerable systems. To avoid
great damages caused by disasters, the
prewarning and predicting system for natural
disasters could be established to deal with
the huge amount of observed information
in ground stations and the monitoring data
by satellites. Satellites around the earth
have formed an earth observation system,
so that the major natural disasters, such as
hurricanes, snowstorms, floods, earthquake,
can be observed in the real time, the disaster
development signs can be grasped, then early
warning or even forecasting of disasters
occurrence could be skillfully done.
Global warming has now become the major

feature of global climate change, bringing out
the environmental problems such as water
shortage, and deterioration of ecosystem,
etc., resulting in the frequent occurrence of
such natural disasters as flood, drought, and
hurricane. Since 1980s, Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has,
successively, released three assessment reports
on global climate change. In Abstract for
Decision-makersClimate Change 2007:
Synthesis Report, Volume 1 of the Fourth
IPCC Assessment Report, the greenhouse
effect is believed to be the reason for the
unprecedented increasing of global warming,
which makes the climate less stable, the sea
surface rise more significantly, and disasters
such as flood and drought more likely.
Historically, disasters have brought natural

resources from which mankind has benefited.
For instance, hurricanes can bring fresh water
to land and drought can be mitigated; the
energy of the tide and wind can be transferred
to electricity by special facilities; pozzolana
deposited by volcanic eruption is a kind of
high grade fertilizer and lava is a desirable
construction material; floods make the rivers
change their courses and leave vast river
deltas in the lower valleys, such as Changjiang
River Delta, Rhine River Delta, Mississippi
River Delta, etc. In these deltas, flooding was
the major disaster causing great damages
in the history, but nowadays they are well
developed and glorious areas. It is possible in
the future that mankind might find ways to
control natural disasters and transform the
consequences of disasters into useful natural
resources.
The interaction of global warming and other

climate variables has increased the occurrence
of natural disasters. The observed data shows
the global mean temperature rises at an
average of 0.75 per year over the decades.
The average temperature of the earths nearsurface air and oceans varies periodically in
history; sometime the previous increasing
rate of the surface temperature was much
higher than that nowadays. The earlier
higher rate was caused by natural factors;
the present rate of increase of temperature is
due to human-induced emission of GHGs,
and the natural periodical fluctuations of the
earths temperature, but the effects of human
activities are playing increasingly important
roles in global warming. The average extent
of climate change varies from continent
to continent and even among different
geographical regions of the same continent.
In a certain region, the risen temperature may
be higher than the local mean. The extreme
climate warming in a certain temperature

region may likely induce devastating disasters.
In addition, global climate change alters the
rate of climate variations including extreme
heat wave and extreme cold wave, making
the climate system more susceptible, and
bringing about the frequent occurrence of
extreme disasters such as heat wave, powerful
typhoon, torrential rain, and lasting drought.
There is still a scientific debate over the
contribution of climate change to the increase
of natural disasters. Some think that the trend
can be explained entirely by the ever-growing
numbers of people and value of property in
harms way. Others think that human-caused
climate change has led to more frequent
and intensive weather events and therefore
account for some part of the increased
damage. Nevertheless, there is evidence that
changing patterns of extreme events are
drivers for recent increases in global losses.
Climate change and variability are among key
factors that influence trends in disasters.
Community planners need access to the most
accurate and timely environmental infor
mation that is available to help them respond
to the extreme events. They need advanced
warning to know when extreme weather
will occur, so that they can minim ize its
impact on community. Timely assessment
and predictions of weather-driven natural
disasters at large spatial scale are vitally
important to allow for proper evacuation
and damage mitigation strategies. These
jobs can not be done without coordinated
earth observation missions. It is the hope
to develop from this project a state of art
protocol and platform of satellite observations
for early warning, vulnerability mapping,
impact assessment, risk mitigation, and
implementation of relief efforts. Provided
with such satellite-based high resolution data
and models, decision makers will be better
10
equipped to respond to natural hazards when

they occur, and could significantly reduce
the losses from large scale weather-driven
disasters.
To summarize, there are many reasons for
climate system change, which come into two
major categories: one is climate change by
nature, and the other is impact of human
activities. The former consists of change of
solar radiation due to the variation of the
earths orbit and volcanoes, etc., and the
latter includes the burning of fossil fuel, the
variable concentration of sulfide aerosol, the
change of land cover and land use (such as
deforestation resulted in the increase of GHG
in the atmosphere, etc.).
1.4.3 Mankinds Adaptability

to Natural Disasters
In the IPCC report, there are chiefly two ways
of relieving global climate warming. One is
the reduction of greenhouse emission, and
the other is the adaptability to the nature.
Man has gradually adapted to the change of
the nature through the history of social and
productive practices. And with global climate
change, it is necessary to strengthen the
capability in this regard. Concerning mans
adaptability to nature, In ancient Greece
civilization, there was a very significant
philosophy illustrating the relationship
between man and nature: human is the mini
cosmos, nature is the big cosmos; human
being is the organic part of nature, so mankind
should coexist with nature in harmony. The
ancient Chinese work on medicine, Classic
of Internal Medicine (Huangdi Neijing) in the
Eastern Zhou Dynasty (Old China) pointed
out Yin and Yang are the opposite principles
existing in nature and human affairs and
governing the functioning of celestial bodies
such as the sun and the moon. Disasters arise
if you are against it, while even minor disease
disappears if you are adaptable to it. This is

the way of living. And in addition, the book
Important Arts for the Peoples Welfare (Qi
Min Yao Shu) in the North Wei Dynasty (Old
China) stressed The advantages outweigh
the disadvantages if you are adaptable
to favorable climate and geographical
conditions, while work hard but to no avail if
you are against the nature. Even the ancient
people understood thoroughly the necessity
of mans adaptability to nature, although the
science and technology level was much lower,
and human society was more fragile at that
time.
Mankind is not able to stop natural disasters
but they can learn to live with them by
reducing the effects of natural disasters
such as cyclones, earthquakes, tornadoes,
snowstorms and storm surges, etc. There has
to be proper training and appraisal programs
for vulnerable communities. These programs
should be included in the educational
curriculum of schools, colleges and even
universities. Once students learn, they can
subsequently teach their family members.
Moreover, there should be community based
training programs in vulnerable areas. The
printing and electronic media should be
engaged with such programs. TV and other
display systems may be effectively used to
show the live damage pictures and animated
movies.
Great differences exist between developed
and developing countries in their ability to
strengthen their adaptive capability. The
developed countries are more adaptable to
climate change as well as the subsequent
natural disasters, and are less susceptible.
Most developed countries have already
completed the infrastructure constructions
in adaptive engineering. For example, the
Dam Across the Sea and its flood-control
engineering system, with huge financial

investment and decades of construction, has
set up a very successful example. However,
the developing countries are weaker in their
adaptability to natural disasters caused by
climate change, and therefore more fragile
and susceptible in the face of them. As their
infrastructure construction is incomplete,
much investment will be needed in building
their adaptive capability. It is thus clear
that developing countries are in need of
strengthening their adaptive capability to
better develop themselves.
It is recommended that IAP initiate and
encourage relevant scientists to make studies
on mans adaptability to global climate change
and the subsequent natural disasters, to work
out research plans over some issues in cutting
edge areas, and to make further studies on the
best use of modern science and technology in
assisting mans adaptability.
1.5 Harsh Impact of Natural

Disasters in Developing
Countries
G enerally sp eaking, the same typ e of
natural disaster may cause bigger and more
devastating damages to a developing county
than to a developed country. Therefore, it has
become an urgent problem for developing
countries to reduce natural disaster damages
in the course of their economic development.
When natural disasters such as flooding
occur in developing nations, they can
effectively wipe out decades of investments
in infrastructure and the personal wealth
of many of its people, not to mention the
countless loss of lives, physical injuries,
sickness and psychological trauma that result
11
from the disasters.
1.5.1 Fragile Natural

Eco-Environment
A majority of developing countries are located
in the humid monsoon climate regions or
inland dry and arid regions between 35
degree north latitude and 30 degree south
latitude. The eco-environment in these
regions is more susceptible to damage than
the world average due to natural geography,
thus they often bear the brunt of natural
disasters.
1.5.2 Frail Social and

Economic System
Studies show that those developing countries
in their process of modernization are most
fragile in their social and economic system.
According to statistics, the ratio between
economic losses and national income caused
by natural disasters is much bigger than that
of the developed countries, and in the 20th
century, many of the casualty tolls caused by
natural disasters occurred in the developing
countries.
1.5.3 Disaster Inclination out

of Irrational Social and
Economic Activities
The developing countries are burdened with
large population, few resources, and poor
technology. To narrow down their differences
with the developed countries, many adopt
policies of speedy economic development
12
focusing on scale and speed, while ignoring

disaster prevention and mitigation as
well as eco-environmental protection,
promoting economic development at the
cost of destroying their eco-environment.
This disaster inclination out of the irrational
social and economic activities may eventually
lead to more frequent occurrence of natural
disasters.
1.5.4 Increase of the Natural

Disasters
In many developing countries, the changes
in social structures such as high population
concentration in urban areas, depopulation
in rural areas, low-sense of belonging and
cooperation in the urban communities and
lack of transmission of disaster experience
are obviously increasing and aggravating the
effects of natural disasters.
1.5.5 Weak Capacity in

Disaster Prevention and
Mitigation
Constrained by factors including poor science
and technology development, developing
countries are generally weak in their capacity
to prevent and mitigate natural disasters. In
terms of disaster prediction and monitoring,
as well as engineering disaster mitigation,
they lag far behind the developed countries.
Their general awareness of disaster prevention
and mitigation is often weak due to the lack
of education and information.
International Disaster
Reduction Activities
2.1 Introduction
Early international disaster reduction activities
can be traced back to the International Decade
for Natural Disaster Reduction 1990-1999, or
IDNDR. It raised international awareness of
the significance of natural disaster reduction.
At the mid-point of the IDNDR, in 1994, the
First World Conference on Disaster Reduction
held in Yokohama, Japan, was able to review
the achievements of IDNDR up to that point,
and to establish guiding principles for the rest
of the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction.
In December 1999, at the conclusion of the
Decade, the United Nations General Assembly
adopted the International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction (ISDR) to implement follow-up
action for the achievements of the Decade
and to promote the continuing development
of disaster reduction around the world.
Then, in 2005, the 2nd World Conference on
Disaster Reduction held in Hyogo Prefecture,
Japan, and the Action 2005-2015: Building
the Resilience of Nations and Communities to
Disasters (Hyogo Framework for Action, HFA)
adopted by the Conference has become the
international blueprint for disaster reduction.
With the recent occurrence of catastrophes
such as the Indian Ocean tsunami, the
Pakistan earthquake, and Hurricane Katrina,
governments have enhanced their commitment
to disaster mitigation and relief. The voices
calling for global cooperation to reduce the
loss of life and property caused by natural

disasters are steadily rising.
2.2 International Decade

for Natural Disaster
Reduction (IDNDR)
In re s p ons e t o t h e n atu r a l d i s a s t e r s ,
international communities have strengthened
international co op eration on disaster
reduction to control and reduce the huge
losses caused by natural disasters.
In December 1989, the 44th United Nations
General Assembly adopted the resolution on
IDNDR, and declared the years of 1990-1999
as the activity period of IDNDR. In the 10-year
period, the special Advisory Committee on
Disaster Reduction, the Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction Committee on Science and
Technology, and the Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction Secretariat were established. These
agencies provided consultation for Decade
Activities, and took part in day-to-day work and
other related activities.
The purpose of IDNDR was to reduce the loss
of life and property and the socio-economic
imbalance caused by earthquakes, typhoons,
tsunamis, f loods, landslides, volcanic
eruptions, forest fires, locusts, drought and
desertification and other natural disasters
13
through concerted international action,

particularly in developing countries.
The objectives of IDNDR were:
To improve the capacity of each country to
mitigate the effects of natural disasters, giving
special attention to assisting developing
countries in the assessment of disaster
damage potential and establish early warning
systems and disaster-resistant structures;
To make appropriate guidelines and
strategies within the existing formulation
of scientific and technological knowledge
while taking into account the diversity of
culture and economy;
To make up for the major gaps in knowledge of science and technology to reduce
life and property losses;
To communicate, assess and predict existing
new technological information on natural
disaster reduction, and
To take measures for assessing, predicting,
preventing and mitigating natural disasters
by technical assistance, technology transfer
programs, demonstration projects, and
education and training plans, and then to
evaluate the effectiveness of these measures.
In the period of IDNDR, governments and
international agencies took a series of actions
toward the goals. In the United Nations,
the agencies involved in disaster reduction
activities include:
Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations (FAO): FAO focuses
on disaster prevention and priority issues
including food production requirements
and post-disaster reconstruction;
14
International Telecommunication Union

(ITU): Through its mandate and technology
in telecommunications, ITU played an
important role in IDNDR, particularly
in early warning of disasters. In 1998,
ITU adopted the Tampere Convention,
providing significant guarantee for disaster
mitigation and relief;
United Nations Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization (UNESCO): UNESCO
raised the importance of science for disaster
reduction, helped to establish a reliable
observation and early warning network
system, encouraged the establishment of
rational land use plans, and promoted the
use of appropriate architectural design to
raise public awareness;
United Nations Industrial Development
Organization (UNIDO): UNIDO is involved
in providing improved structure designs
and promoting disaster-resistant buildings,
mainly for the construction sectors;
World Health Organization (WHO): WHO
was responsible for the comprehensive
d i s a s t e r pre v e nt i on , pre p a re d n e s s ,
response, and rehabilitation, and reduced
the vulnerability of public health systems;
World Meteorological Organization
(WMO): WMO, as well as UNESCO and
its Commission on the Oceans, assumed
the technological lead in climate-related
disasters. WMO has done much work to
establish global climate forecasting and
monitoring models. In 1988, WMO and
UNEP established the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and
United Nations Development Program
(UNDP): After the 52nd session of the
United Nation General Assembly, UNDP
took actions on mitigation, prevention and

preparedness of natural disasters.
Meanwhile, actions taken during IDNDR were
reflected at the national and regional level,
including the establishment of national disaster
mitigation mechanisms and organizations,
and the formation and development of
regional networks and intergovernmental
agencies for disaster reduction.
2.3 Key Events of

International Disaster
Reduction Activities
Following the 44th United Nations General
Assembly in 1989 which set up the IDNDR,
the International Community held a series
of international and regional conferences
with sessions covering a wide range of topics.
The following conferences focused on issues
related to disaster reduction and adopted
programmatic documents that define current
international disaster reduction activities.
1) The First World Conference on Disaster
Reduction (WCDR)
One of the main outcomes of the IDNDR
was the Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World
and its Plan of Action, adopted in 1994 at the
First World Conference on Natural Disaster
Reduction held in Yokohama, Kanagawa
Prefecture, Japan. The Yokohama Strategy
set guidelines for action on prevention,
preparedness and mitigation of disaster
risk. These guidelines were based on a set
of Principles that stressed the importance
of risk assessment, disaster prevention and
preparedness, the capacity to prevent, reduce
and mitigate disasters, and early warning.
2) International Conference on Early

Warning (EWC)
In September 1998, the International Early
Warning Conference was held in Potsdam,
Germany. It emphasized early warning as
a cornerstone of disaster reduction. It was
intended to seriously evaluate and discuss
successful cases, and useful lessons, in the
effective use of early warning systems in
disaster reduction. The conference displayed
the BEST early warning schema and
institutional capacity and introduced the latest
examples of science and technology, including
space and remote sensing technology for
early warning. The conference declaration
proposed, inter alia, establishing partnership
in technical innovation and the development
of business opportunities, including the use
of earth observation, telecommunications,
Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and
other relevant technologies.
3) The 54th United Nations General Assembly,
1999
At this meeting, a resolution was adopted to
accept the successor arrangements for the
International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction, and to implement the International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR).
4) The Second World Conference on Disaster
Reduction
In January 2005, the Second WCDR was
held in Kobe, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan. The
conference reviewed the implementation
of the Yokohama Strategy which was set
up at the First WCDR and summed up the
accumulated experience and the existing
gaps of the International Community for
disaster reduction over the past years. Based
on this, the Hyogo Framework for Action
15
and the Hyogo Declaration were negotiated

and adopted. The Hyogo Framework for
Action discussed the strategy and action
priorities of the next 10 years (2005-2015),
which emphasized that it was necessary to
have the awareness of disaster reduction for
future sustainable development actions, to
strengthen the disaster reduction system, to
increase disaster reduction capacity, and to
reduce the risk of post-disaster reconstruction.
The Hyogo Framework for Action called for the
development of early warning systems to deal
with all disaster issues, which was regarded as
the priority issues before 2015.
5) The First Asian Conference on Disaster
Reduction (ACDR)
In September 2005, the first ACDR was
convened in Beijing, China. The purpose of
the conference was to share experiences of
Asian countries on disaster management,
identify priority areas of disaster reduction
actions, and promote regional cooperation
on disaster reduction. The conference was
proposed by Premier Wen Jiabao on behalf
of the Chinese Government in January 2005
during the Indian Ocean tsunami special
summit in January 2005. This conference
was the first Asian Regional Ministerial
C onference on Disaster Reduction. It
aimed to show the achievements in disaster
reduction across Asia, to build a platform for
exchange of information on early warning, to
increase disaster prevention and reduction,
to implement the Hyogo Framework for
Action, and to promote cooperation over
disaster reduction in Asia. After nearly
three days of discussion, the conference
unanimously adopted the Beijing Action for
Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, which had
great significance in future cooperation of
disaster reduction across Asian countries to
reduce disaster risk and losses.
16
6) The Second Asian Conference on Disaster

Reduction
In Novemb er 2007, the S econd Asian
Ministerial Conference on Risk Reduction
was held in the Indian capital, New Delhi.
The conference was hosted by the Indian
Government, in association with ISDR, the
Asia-Pacific Economic and Social Council,
UNDP, the World Bank and other relevant
international organizations. More than
500 representatives from over 50 countries
and regions attended the conference, with
representatives from United Nations agencies
and non-governmental organizations in
the Asia-Pacific region. The outcome of the
conference included the Delhi Declaration
on Disaster Risk Reduction, which called
upon all countries to actively implement five
priorities adopted in the Hyogo Framework
for Action of the 2005 WCDR, encouraged
c ou nt r i e s an d re l e v ant i nt e r n at i on a l
organizations to work together to strengthen
regional cooperation on disaster reduction,
and to promote experience sharing in disaster
early warning and information networks
construction. The Delhi Declaration also
called on Asian governments to pay further
attention to disaster reduction and relief when
making national development strategies,
leg isl at ion, me chanism const r uc t ion,
scientific research, financial policy, etc., to
speed up the development of early disaster
warning systems, and to take effective
measures to address climate change.
2.4 International Day for

Disaster Reduction
(IDDR)
The International Day for Disaster Reduction
was designated the second Wednesday of
every October to increase awareness of

disaster reduction through IDNDR activities.
In 2001, the UN General Assembly agreed to
maintain observance of IDDR as a vehicle to
promote a global culture of natural disaster

reduction, including disaster prevention,
mitigation and preparedness. The themes of
the past IDDR are listed in Table 2.1:
Table 2.1 The themes of past IDDR

Year
Theme
1991
National disasters: development: environment - a common commitment
1992
Natural disaster reduction and sustainable development
1993
Stop disasters: focus on schools and hospitals
1994
Protection of vulnerable communities from the effects of natural disasters
1995
Women and children - the key to prevention
1996
Cities at risk from natural disasters
1997
Water: too much ... too little ... the main cause of natural disasters
1998
Natural disaster prevention and the media
1999
Prevention pays
2000
Disaster prevention, education and youth, with special focus on forest fires
2001
Countering disasters; targeting vulnerability
2002
Disaster reduction for sustainable mountain development
2003
Turning the tide on disasters towards sustainable development
2004
Learning
2005
Invest to prevent disaster
2006
Disaster risk reduction begins at school
2007
Disaster risk reduction begins at school
2008
Hospitals safe from disasters
2.5 International Strategy

for Disaster Reduction
(ISDR)
IDNDR greatly promoted the development
of international disaster reduction processes
despite differences in technological
capabilities and widely varying social and
natural environments between countries.
To consolidate the achievement of IDNDR,
it is imperative that we continue reviewing,
assessing and reforming the concept of
disaster reduction and put these ideas into
practice.
On November 24, 1999, the 54th United
Nat ions G enera l Ass embly adopte d a
resolution to develop IDNDR to ISDR. At
the start of ISDR, the Inter-Agency Task
Force for Disaster Reduction (IATF/DR) and
Inter-Agency Secretariat of the International
Strateg y for Disaster Reduction (UN/
ISDR) were established as first steps towards
implementing a disaster reduction strategy.
The objectives of ISDR are:
To improve the resilience of human society to
17
natural, technological and environmental

disasters, so as to reduce the comprehensive
risks imposed on current vulnerable
societies and economies, and
To promote the transfer of disaster
resistance to risk management by fully
integrating risk prevention strategies into
sustainable development activities.
ISDR reflects the development of ideas since
IDNDR, namely a switch from past emphases
on disaster response to comprehensive
disaster risk reduction. It is an awareness that
natural hazard factors themselves do not lead
to disasters, yet disasters could be the result of
hazard factors affecting vulnerable social and
ecosystems.
Over the last decade, the activities of international disaster reduction have made great
progress. The international activities covered
by the International Disaster Reduction
Conference (IDRC) and the International
Day for Disaster Reduction (IDDR) were
sig nif ic ant examples of inter nat iona l
disaster relief actions and disaster reduction
cooperation in the fields of science and
technology, especially in space technology.
2.6 Significant Activities in

Disaster Mitigation
Recent years have witnessed a series of
catastrophes. Agencies of the United Nations,
international and regional organizations, and
many governments have acted quickly to
dispatch rescue teams to implement relief and
provided manpower, material and financial
assistance to the affected areas in various
forms. Major participants are:
Agencies of the United Nations: the United
18
Nations Office for the Coordination of

Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), the
United Nations International Childrens
Fund (UNICEF) and the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP).
International and regional organizations:
the International Committee of the Red
Cross (ICRC), the World Bank and the
European Union (EU).
Governments around the world.
At present, the major international mechanisms
dealing with disaster mitigation based on
advanced science and technology are:
1) International CHARTER Space and
Major Disasters
Following the UNISPACE III conference held
in Vienna, Austria in July 1999, the European
and French space agencies (ESA and CNES)
initiated the International CHARTER Space
and Major Disasters, with the Canadian
Space Agency (CSA) signing the CHARTER
on October 20, 2000.
The International CHARTER aims to provide
a unified system of space data acquisition
and delivery to those areas affected by natural
or man-made disasters through Authorized
Users. Each agency member has committed
resources to support the provisions of the
CHARTER and thus helped to mitigate the
effects of disasters on human life and property.
The International CHARTER was formally
declared effective on November 1, 2000.
The following agencies joined the CHARTER
as members: The European Space Agency
(ESA), Centre National dEtudes spatiales
(CNES, France), The Canadian Space Agency
(CSA), Indian Space Research Organization
(ISRO), National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA, U.S.), Argentine

Space Agency (CONAE), Japan Aerospace
Exploration Agency (JAXA), United States
Geological Survey (USGS), DMC International
Imaging Ltd (DMCii), and China National
Space Administration (CNSA).
2) United Nations Platform for Space-based
Information for Disaster Management
and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER)
The precursor to UN-SPIDER was the
Disaster Management International Space
Coordination Organization (DMISCO),
which was approved at the 59th session of
the UN General Assembly. In its resolution
61/110 of December 14, 2006, the United
Nations General Assembly agreed to entitle
this mechanism United Nations Platform
for Space-based Information for Disaster
Management and Emergency ResponseUN-SPIDER. As a program implemented
by the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs
(UNOOSA), offices have been set up both in
Beijing, China and Bonn, Germany. As an
open network of providers with space-based
solutions to support disaster management
activities, UN-SPIDER is fully commanded
and supervised by the director of UNOOSA.
The UN-SPIDER program is achieving its
target to apply space information for disaster
management and emergenc y response
internationally by paving a way for space
information to support disaster management.
This is achieved by serving as a bridge to
connect the disaster management and space
communities, and by being a facilitator
of capacity-building and institutional
strengthening, particularly for developing
countries. The programs mission is Ensure
that all countries and international and
regional organizations have access to, and
develop the capacity of using, all types of
space-based information to support the full

disaster management cycle.
3) International Center for Drought Risk
Reduction (ICDRR)
With the purpose of better developing the
regional and global cooperation on drought
mitigation and drawing more attention to this
aspect from the international community,
the United Nations International Strategy
for Disaster Reduction, the China National
Committee for Disaster Reduction and the
Ministry of Civil Affairs agreed to set up
ICDRR by signing an MOU in March, 2005.
The Center officially opened on April 2, 2007.
ICDRRs main task is to strengthen the governmental and non-governmental cooperation
at both global and regional scales, to mitigate
the risk of droughts, and to reduce the
poverty caused by droughts to the greatest
extent under the framework of international
disaster mitigation strategies of the UN.
4) The Committee on Earth Observation
Satellites (CEOS)
Founded in September 1984, CEOS is an
informal agency coordinating spatial earth
obser vation systems without replacing
agreements of member countries at present
and in the future. The activities of CEOS
will neither interfere with the functioning of
satellite-based earth observation systems in
the member countries, nor affect the satellite
development needs or the earth observation
system management of each members
country. The main functions are: global task
coordination, data sharing, and research
cooperation for earth observation.
Basic objectives and tasks of CEOS include:
To optimize benefits of spaceborne Earth
19
observations through cooperation of its

participants in mission planning and in
development of compatible data products,
formats, services, applications, and policies;
To serve as a focal point for international
coordination; to provide an effective
mechanism for members and international
user groups in domains of spatial earth
obser vation activities (including the
observation of Global Change) through
space-related Earth observation activities;
To exchange policy and technical information to encourage compatibility of observation and data exchange systems;
To share viewpoints and opinions with the
same goal in the domain of satellite based
earth observation.
5) The Group on Earth Observations (GEO)
GEO was launched in response to calls
for action by the 2002 World Summit on
Sustainable Development and by the G8
(Group of Eight) leading industrialized
count r ies. Thes e hig h-le vel me et ings
recognized that international collaboration is
essential for exploiting the growing potential
of Earth observations to support decision
making in an increasingly complex and
environmentally stressed world.
GEO is a voluntary partnership of governments and international organizations
governed by a Plenary, which consists of all
Members and Participating Organizations.
It provides a framework within which these
partners can develop new projects and coordinate
their strategies and investments. As of
September 2009, GEOs Members include 80
Governments and the European Commission.
In addition, 56 intergovernmental, international, and regional organizations with a
20
mandate in Earth observation or related

issues have been recognized as Participating
Organizations.
GEO has coordinated efforts to build a Global
Earth Observation System of Systems, or
GEOSS on the basis of a 10-Year Implementation Plan for the period 2005 to 2015.
6) The Global Earth Observation System of
Systems (GEOSS)
Three international ministerial summits on
earth observation were held by the USA,
Japan and the European Union as organizers
and founders during the period between July
2003 and February 2005. A framework and
10-year implementation plan were created at
those summits.
T h e pu r p o s e of G E O S S i s to a ch i e ve
comprehensive, coordinated and sustained
observations of the Earth system, in order to
improve monitoring of the state of the Earth,
increase understanding of Earth processes,
and enhance prediction of the behavior
of the Earth system. GEOSS will meet the
need for timely, quality long-time global
information as a basis for sound decisionmaking, and will enhance delivery of benefits
to society. The vision for GEOSS is to realize
a future wherein decisions and actions for
the benefit of humankind are informed by
coordinated, comprehensive and sustained
Earth observations and information.
GEOSS aspires to encompass all areas of
the world and to cover in situ, airborne, and
space-based observations. GEOSS will be
primarily focused on issues of regional and
global scale and cross-sector applications.
GEOSS will promote capacity building in
Earth observation, building on existing
local, national, regional, and international
initiatives.
The social benefits generated by GEOSS

would primarily be in disaster mitigation,
which reduces loss of life and property loss
from natural and human-induced disasters.
To encourage research and training in

meteorology, in related fields, and in coordinating the international aspects of such
research and training.
7) The World Meteorological Organization

(WMO)
WMOs major scientific and technical

programs are: The World Weather Watch
(WWW) Program, The World Climate
Programme (WCP), The Atmospheric
Research and Environment Programme
(AREP), The Applications of Meteorology
Program (AMP), The Hydrology and Water
Resources Program (HWRP), The Education
and Training Program (ETRP), The Technical
Cooperation Program (TCOP), and The
Regional Program (RP).
The WMO originated from the International

Meteorological Organization (IMO), which
was founded in 1873. The agreement of
WMO took effect on March 23, 1950, which
signified the establishment of WMO. WMO
became a specialized agency of the UN in
December 1951 through an agreement after
negotiations. It had a membership of 188
Member States until 2004.
The WMOs aims are:
To facilitate worldwide cooperation in the
establishment of networks of stations to
conduct meteorological observations as
well as hydrological and other geophysical
observations related to meteorology, and to
promote the establishment and maintenance
of centers providing meteorological and
related services;
To promote the establishment and maintenance of systems for rapid exchange of
meteorological and related information;
To promote standardization of meteorological and related observations and to
ensure the uniform publication of observations and statistics;
To further the application of meteorology
i n av i at ion, shipping , water issues,
agriculture and other human activities;
To promote activities in applied hydrology
and to further close co-operation between
meteorological and hydrological services, and
8) International Council for Science (ICSU)

Headquartered in Paris, France, ICSU is a nongovernment organization representing
a global membership that includes both
national scientific bodies (116 members)
and international scientific unions (30
members). The main aim is to promote
international communication of science,
co ordinate ac t iv it ies of inter nat iona l
scientific associations and national scientific
organizations, protect the legitimate rights
for the scientific world, promote the social
responsibility and professional morality of the
scientific world, and to enhance the publics
awareness of science.
ICSU carries out research on interdisciplinary
projects that bring together the scientific
world and civil society. International research
plans, programs, and exchange activities with
scientific significance are usually launched
based on these projects.
In October, 2005, ICSU held the 28th General
Assembly in Suzhou, China. By focusing on
catastrophes caused by frequent global natural
disasters, the assembly advocated that scientists
21
should strengthen cooperation, learn lessons

from disasters and attach importance to
research of disaster reduction and mitigation.
The former and new elected chairmen of ICSU
invited Chinese scientists to join in the new
interdisciplinary program on Natural and
Human-Induced Environmental Hazards and
Disasters for the benefits of people both in
China and the world.
2.7 Achievements,
Challenges and Future
Development
After many years of international disaster
reduction activities worldwide, international
societies have achieved valuable achievements
listed as follows:
UN Agencies, International and Regional
Organizations and Countries have built
up and perfected the disaster reduction
mechanism and the construction of agencies
with provisions of disaster reduction;
The cooperation in disaster reduction has
been conducted at international, regional
and national levels, strengthening research
on the development of disaster reduction;
For disaster reduction activities, frameworks were generated and executed in
order to prevent or reduce the possible
damage caused by disasters, and
Science and technology, especially spatial
technolog y will play an increasingly
important role in international disaster
mitigation.
At the same time, international disaster
reduction activities are faced with great
challenges, including the following:
22
Climate change and its possible effect

on n at u r a l d i s a s t e r s , w h i l e hu m a n
vulnerability is intensified by urbanization
and population growth;
Constantly changing natural environments
an d s o c i a l d e ve l opm e nt s re qu i r i ng
increased awareness among civilians, and
the need for greater application of science
and technology;
The need to strengthen capacity building
in national and local disaster reduction
technologies;
The need to improve the efficiency of
international disaster reduction systems;
Continuing weakness in cooperation at
international and regional levels, and
The low level of special funding for disaster
research.
By synthesizing achievements of international
disaster reduction activities in the last few
decades and increasing progress made, the
predictable development tendency for the
international disaster reduction cooperation
should include several aspects as below:
Inter nat iona l s o ciet ies shou ld ke ep
strengthening their structures in disaster
management at different levels;
With rapid globalization of disaster management and constant development of international disaster reduction agencies and
mechanisms, it is important to construct
a more unif ied g lobal co ordination
mechanism for future development; and
International societies should gradually
improve their understanding of disaster
management and integrate disaster risk
management with humanitarian relief efforts.
Earthquake Disasters
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 Earthquakes and Their
Effects
1. Earthquake and Disasters
Earthquakes result from interior movements
in earths rigid crust or lithosphere. They
have long affected and changed the earths
internal structure and surface configuration,
and also caused serious injury to living
creatures, especially to human society. Large
earthquakes have caused displacement of
mountains and rivers, caused drastic changes
to the living environment, prompted largescale human migration, and even provoked
war and dynastic replacement.
Many ancient civilizations have kept records
of earthquakes, and over thousands of years,
important understanding of earthquake
monitoring, epicenter localization and
earthquake disaster prevention have been
cumulatively achieved. In 46 AD, the
6.5-magnitude earthquake in Nanyang urban
district, Henan Province of China, caused
approximately 10,000 deaths. Subsequently,
several earthquakes occurred near Luoyang,
the ancient capital of China. The urgent need
for forecasting and quick determination of
the epicenter gave birth to the seismograph
invented by Zhang Heng (79-139 AD), a
pioneer of seismic study. His seismograph

or seismometer marked the beginning of
mankinds earthquake monitoring and
forecasting, epicenter location and direction.
Early recorded earthquakes include the following:
In 1303, the 8.0-magnitude earthquake in
Hongtong, Shanxi, China caused 200,000
deaths. In 1556, the 8.5-magnitude earthquake in Huaxian County, Shanxi, China and
the post-earthquake plague caused 830,000 deaths.
In 1668, the 8.5-magnitude earthquake in
Tancheng, Shandong, China caused 50,000
deaths. In 1755, the 9-magnitude earthquake
and tsunami of the sea area near Lisbon,
Portugal, caused 100,000 deaths. In 1883,
the tsunami triggered by volcanic eruption
in Indonesian Kara Catto (Krakatau) caused
30,000 deaths. In 1896, the earthquake
tsunami in Sanriku, Japan, caused 22,000
deaths.
Since the 20th century, approximately 40
disastrous earthquakes indicated by the
relevant statistics have occurred worldwide
(Table 3.1). The total earthquake death toll
worldwide in the 20th century was nearly 1.7
million which accounted for 54% of the total
death toll caused by natural disasters, and the
direct economic losses amounted to USD 410
billion, in which the death toll and economic
losses in urban areas was approximately 61%
and 85% respectively.
23
Table 3.1 Destructive earthquake disasters worldwide since 1900

Time of
Epicenter
Magnitude
Death Toll
Serious Injury
Occurrence (year)
(place name)
(Ms)
(person)
(person)
1902
Atush, China
8.25
5650
4350
Afghanistan
8.6
20000
8.3
Above 3000
1905
1906
USA
1906
Manasi, China
8.0
300
1907
Uzbekistan
7.8
12000
1908
Italy
7.5
123000
1915
Italy
7.0
29980
1920
Haiyan, China
8.5
234117
1923
Tokyo, Japan
8.2
142800
1927
Gulang, China
8.0
41000
1934
Nepal-India
8.4
10000
1935
Pakistan
7.5
30000
1939
Turkey
7.9
30000
1939
Chile
8.3
28000
7.2
20000
1948
Turkmen, Soviet
Union
1960
Chile
8.9
157000
1960
Morocco
5.9
13000
1962
Iran
7.2
12200
1966
Xingtai, China
7.2
8000
1968
Iran
7.3
12100
1970
Tonghai, China
7.7
1970
Peru
1975
1000
USD 50 billion
USD 120 million
40000
RMB 500 million
15621
26783
RMB 2.7 billion
7.8
50000
100000
Haicheng, China
7.2
1328
4292
RMB 810 million
1976
Tangshan, China
7.8
242000
160000
RMB 10 billion
1976
Guatemala
7.5
22400
1978
Iran
7.2
12000
1980
Italy
6.9
3114
1985
Mexico
8.1
10000
40000
1988
Armenia, USSR
6.8
25000
19000
RUB 10 billion
1989
California, USA
7.1
271
500
USD 2 billion
1990
Iran
7.7
50000
200000
1993
India
6.4
21000
10000
73 villages destroyed
6.7
72
10000
USD12.5 billion
Northridge,
California, USA
Remarks
USD 200 million
12000
1994
24
San Francisco,
Economic Loss
USD 75 million
9 rescue teams
29 rescue teams
Continued
Time of
Epicenter
Magnitude
Death Toll
Serious Injury
Occurrence (year)
(place name)
(Ms)
(person)
(person)
7.2
5438
30000
USD96 billion
7.4
15637
42442
USD 20 billion
1995
Osaka-Kobe,
Japan
Economic Loss
Remarks
1999
Izmit, Turkey
1999
Chinese Taipei
7.6
1674
3924
USD 9.2 billion
20 rescue teams
2001
Gujart, India
7.6
16403
55863
USD 4.5 billion
10 rescue teams
2003
Algeria
6.7
2274
11452
USD 5 billion
38 rescue teams
2003
Bam, Iran
6.8
26200
30000
2004
Indian Ocean
9.0
300000
100000
USD 13.6 billion
21 rescue teams
Pakistan
7.6
87000
65038
USD 5 billion
19 rescue teams
6.4
6234
36300
USD 18 million
10 rescue teams
2005
2006
Yogyakarta,
Indonesia
35 rescue teams
47 rescue teams
About 100 teams

2008
Wenchuan, China
8.0
69197
374176
RMB 845.1 billion
domestic and 5
teams abroad
2. Tsunami Disaster
1) General description
Tsunami means sea wave with ultra-large
wave length and cycle induced by vibrations
f rom u nd e rs e a move me nt su ch as an
earthquake. The tsunami wave in deep sea
waters can travel at a wave length of several
hundred miles with only one-meter wave
height, so its fluctuation generally will not
be felt or observed by the traveling ships.
The tsunami wave can travel at a speed of
above 1000 km/h, and its wave speed will
decrease with the sharp increase of its wave
amplitude when the tsunami wave moves
near to shallow water areas of the coastline. It
is in the coastal areas that tsunami becomes
the natural disaster posing the greatest threat
to life. The wave amplitude of a tsunami may
increase suddenly to above 35 meters, and
bring with it incomparable destructive power
even though the frequency of occurrence of
tsunamis is very low.
Tsunamis may be caused by many factors,
such as large-area vertical displacement of the
seabed rock layer induced by an earthquake in

the over 4000m-deep seabed, oceanic volcano
eruption, large-area landslide in the seabed,
sea or seabed nuclear explosion, external
star falling into the sea, etc. However, most
tsunamis are due to undersea earthquakes
so-called earthquake tsunamis. According to
the available statistics, the smallest magnitude
of earthquake causing a tsunami presently is
7.1, especially one with a shallow epicenter
(generally within 20km). When an undersea
earthquake occurs near the subduction belt
in the over 4000m-deep seabed with the
epicenter of around 10km and the magnitude
of 7.5, it may create large-area vertical
displacement and thus trigger a tsunami.
The earthquake tsunami may be classified
into two categories by the location of its
epicenter: trans-oceanic tsunami (far-shore
tsunami) and local tsunami (near-shore
tsunami). Trans-oceanic tsunami spreads
from the open sea where the water is up to
several thousand or even ten thousand meters
deep. The tsunami wave may travel several
thousand kilometers in the ocean with small
25
energy decay due to its small friction force.

That is why the extensive coastal areas that
are several thousand kilometers away will also
be affected by tsunami disaster. As for local
tsunami, its source area is the same as the
disaster-affected area, and its wave transmits
to the shore within a very short time (usually
several minutes or several dozens of minutes),
causing serious damages because there is
insufficient time for early warning.
90% of strong seabed earthquakes occur

in the Pacific Ocean, so the Pacific Rim is
undoubtedly the area with the most frequent
occurrence of tsunamis. According to 2005
statistics provided by NGDC of US (Figure
3.1), 82% of tsunami events in the history
occurred in the Pacific Ocean, 10% in the
Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, the Red Sea and
the Northeast Atlantic, 5% in the Caribbean
Sea and the southwest Atlantic, 1% in Indian
Ocean, and 1% in the southeast Atlantic.
Global Tsunami Sources 1650 B.C. to A.D. 2008 from Earthquake, Volcano, Landslide, and Other Causes
10W
10E
20E
30E
40E
50E
60E
50E
60E
70E
80E
90E
100E
110E
120E
130E
140E
150E
160E
170E
180E
170W
160W
150W
140W
130W
120W
110W
100W
90W
80W
70W
60W
50W
40W
110E
120E
130E
140E
150E
160E
170E
180E
170W
160W
150W
140W
130W
120W
110W
100W
90W
80W
70W
60W
50W
40W
Effects of the
Tsunami
60S
50S
NOAA/NGDC WDC Tsunami Source Events

Volcanic
Unknown
Landslide
Eruption
Cause
Very Many Deaths

(~1001 or more deaths)
Many Deaths
(~101 to 1000 deaths)
Some Deaths
(~51 to 100 deaths)
Few Deaths
(~1 to 50 deaths)
Earthquake
Magnitude
Not
>=9 >=8 >=7 >=6 recorded
60S
50S
40S
40S
30S
30S
20S
20S
10S
10S
10N
10N
20N
20N
30N
30N
40N
40N
50N
50N
60N
60N
70N
70N
20W
No Deaths
10W
Transform
Convergent
0
10E
70S
Plate Boundaries
Divergent
20W
20E
30E
40E
70E
80E
90E
100E
Figure 3.1 Distribution map of historical tsunami events (by USA NGDC)
2) Tsunami events with dramatic influences

in the history
Tsunami events with dramatic influences
on earth from the 1690s till present can be
described as below:
An earthquake tsunami occurred in the sea
area near the Jamaican Royal Port on June 7,
1692, causing 3000 deaths.
An earthquake with Richter magnitude 9
occurred and triggered a tsunami in the sea
area near Portuguese Lisbon on November
1, 1755. In this earthquake, 85% of urban
buildings were destroyed, and more than
100,000 people died, the tsunami directly
26
causing 30,000 deaths. When the tsunami

wave spread to the North Africa seacoast, it
was still some 20 meters high, and caused
10,000 deaths.
A tsunami triggered by volcanic eruption
occurred in Indonesian Krakatau on
August 26, 1883. The 42m-high tsunami
wave attacked the seacoast, caused 30,000
deaths and destroyed 295 villages and small
towns.
An earthquake tsunami occurred in the sea
area near Sanriku, Japan on June 15, 1896,
and the 25m-high tsunami wave caused
22,000 deaths, and destroyed Sanriku Port
and all villages along the 275km coastline.
On December 28, 1908, an earthquake

with Richter magnitude scale of 7.5 struck
Sicilys Messina bay in Italy and triggered a
tsunami with a 12m-high wave. The tsunami
submerged numerous cities in this area.
A catastrophic earthquake with magnitude
of 8.6 occurred in the Aleutian Islands on
April 1, 1946. The 35m-high tsunami wave
triggered by the earthquake destroyed the
local reinforcement breakwater. When the
tsunami wave spread to Hawaii, the wave
height drapped to 8 meters, and caused 161
deaths. When the tsunami wave reached
Alaska, the wave height was 12 meters.
On July 9, 1958, an earthquake occurred in
Lituya Bay, Alaska, and induced a landslide
when 40,000,000 m 3 of earth and stones
were washed away into the sea, generating a
520m-high tsunami wave. This is the tsunami
event with the highest wave height that has
been monitored in history.
On May 22, 1960, an earthquake with Richer
magnitude scale of 9.5 occurred and induced
a tsunami on the Chilean coast. 10 minutes
after the earthquake occurred, a 25m-high
tsunami wave reached the Chilean coast,
130,000 houses were destroyed and 2
million people were made homeless. The
tsunami traveled to many coastal countries
along the Pacific Ocean. When it spread to
Hawaii, the wave height was 11 meters, and
when it spread to Japan, the wave height
was 6.1 meters. The tsunami altogether
caused 157,000 deaths.
On March 28, 1964, an Ms 9.5 earthquake
occurred and induced a tsunami in Alaska.
The tsunami affected the entire Pacific
Ocean, leaving 132 people dead and
property losses of over USD100 million.
Alaska, Canada and the USs west coast
were most seriously affected.
On July 12, 1993, the Japan Sea was affected

by the 7.8-magnitude earthquake, and
the wave of the tsunami induced by the
earthquake monitored in Japans Okushiri
Island was 30 meters high. The tsunami
wave crossed the breakwater, destroyed
or washed away several hundred houses,
induced mud-rock flows, and altogether
caused 230 deaths. Ever since then, this
area has no longer been inhabited, and a
park was built here to commemorate this
disastrous event.
On July 17, 1998, the northern sea area
of Papua New Guinea was struck by an
earthquake with Richer magnitude 7.1. In
the earthquake, three different tsunami
waves hit 30km-long coastline, and the
maximum wave height reached as high as
10 meters. This tsunami left 2200 people
dead, more than 1000 people injured, and
over 10,000 people homeless.
A mega thrust earthquake occurred on
December 26, 2004 just off the coast of
Sumatra, Indonesia. The tsunami induced
by this earthquake affected many countries
along Indian Ocean and east coast of
Africa, such as the Maldives, Thailand,
Malaysia, Sri Lanka and India, etc. The
tsunami wave in Indonesian Bandah Aceh
seacoast was as high as 24 meters, and its
crawl height was 30 meters. In the areas
hit by the tsunami, numerous houses and
infrastructure were destroyed (Figure 3.2).
According to the statistics from the United
Nations, the death toll of this tsunami was
approximately 300,000.
3. Characteristics of Earthquake Disaster
The previous description on the earthquakes
and tsunami disasters indicate that
catastrophic earthquake disasters have
seriously affected the sustainable development
27
Figure 3.2 The tsunami in the Indian Ocean struck the coast
and economic construction of human society,

including multi-level and multi-sided serious
destruction and malfunction of buildings,
lifeline systems and various engineering
structures. These earthquake tsunamis also
caused human casualties and economic
losses, suspension of regional economic
d e vel opment, s o ciet y inst abi lit y, and
affecting the development process of entire
communities. Compared with other natural
disasters, earthquakes and tsunami have the
following characteristics:
1) Suddenness
An earthquake occurs very suddenly and
often lasts for only several dozen seconds.
This can cause the collapse of enormous
structures and cause human casualties in a
very short period.
2) Widespread destructiveness
An earthquake can cause heavy damage
to over a dozen regions or countries. For
example, the Indian Ocean earthquake
and tsunami in 2004 affected more than
20 countries and regions, and caus ed
approximately 300,000 deaths. A strong
earthquake occurring in densely-populated
and economically-developed regions will
possibly cause even more heavy casualties
and economic loss. For instance, the Tangshan
28
earthquake in 1976 left 242,000 people dead and

nearly 1 million people injured.
3) Profound social influence
Due to its suddenness, heavy casualties and
severe economic losses, a strong earthquake
tends to trigger a series of chain-reactions
impacting on the social life and economic
activities of a region or country seriously, and
will always arouse close attention of the society,
the government and even the international
community. In addition, although the
destruction area of an earthquake is limited, it
can be felt in a broad range of areas, and can
also have a psychological impact on people,
which will possibly have serious influence on
the local society.
4) Difficulty in disaster prevention
The prediction of an earthquake is much
more difficult than that of meteorological
dis asters, such as f lo o d, droug ht and
typhoon, etc. For many under-developed
countries, improvement of earthquake
resistance of buildings requires long-term
efforts and construction. Due to poverty
and fund shortages, it entails coordination
and cooperation of various authorities to
reduce the influence of earthquake disasters.
It is more difficult to improve the overall
resistance capacity to earthquakes than that
to any other natural disaster.

5) Difficulty in disaster emergency response
and rescue
A catastrophic earthquake disaster tends
to cause heavy casualties, economic losses
and vast affected areas which form several
meizoseismal areas. Due to different terrains
and landforms, it is extremely difficult to
carry out rescues in some serious earthquakes,
such as the Tangshan earthquake in 1976, the
Indian Ocean earthquake tsunami in 2004,
the South Asian earthquake in 2005, the
Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and so on. After
the Wenchuan earthquake, the road traffic
and communication were seriously damaged,
the landforms in mountainous areas were
compromised, and secondary disasters such as
serious landslides occurred. It remains difficult
to carry out rescues even in countries with
highly developed science and technology.
3.1.2 New Progress in Research

on Earthquake Disasters
Mankinds understanding of earthquake
disasters is a constantly developing process
from monitoring, prediction, disaster
pre vent ion to emergenc y res c ue. The
8.3-magnitude earthquake in San Francisco
of the US in 1906 and the 8.2-magnitude
earthquake in Tokyo, Japan in 1923 urged
the US and Japan to carry out research on
earthquakes and the relevant disasters, which
involved earthquake monitoring, earthquake
prediction and disaster prevention. The
9.5-magnitude earthquake tsunami in Chile
in 1960 urged over 20 countries and regions
along the Pacific Ocean to jointly establish the
Pacific Ocean earthquake tsunami warning
system. In China significant progress into
research on earthquake disaster prevention
and mitigation was made after the Xingtai
earthquake (1966) and the Tangshan earthquake

(1976). The three working systems of
earthquake monitoring, disaster prevention
and emergency rescue have since been
gradually established by the China Earthquake
Administration in 2005 under the State Council
of the Peoples Republic of China. In 1978, the
Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA) was established in the US, and after
the 911 event in 2001, the US Department
of Homeland Security was established. In the
1990s, many developed countries established
emergency rescue management departments
and strengthened their input in emergency
rescue, such as the Russian Emergency Affairs
Department. The earthquake tsunami disaster
in the Indian Ocean in 2004 caused heavy
losses to the international community, and
forced the relevant authorities to establish the
Indian Ocean earthquake tsunami warning
system. Facing the grim reality that an
earthquake disaster may possibly occur, many
countries and regions where earthquakes
are likely have placed great importance to
integrative prevention and emergency rescue
in recent years, and established the integrative
prevention and emergency rescue system for
earthquake disasters using multiple technical
approaches.
1. Monitoring and Prediction of Earthquakes
1) Researches on earthquake-forming cause
The scientists worldwide have been trying for
a long time to seek the cause of earthquakes,
which is a difficult scientific issue. Developed
countries and some developing countries
have carried out much scientific research on
active seismic fault survey and investigation,
stress field and deformation field survey, and
simulation test. Thereafter, great progress
was achieved in understanding tectonic plate
movement, geometry, and dynamics of the
29
three major earthquake belts worldwide (the

Himalayas - Alps and its inland earthquake
zone, the circum-Pacific Ocean earthquake
belt, and the middle ocean ridge earthquake
belt). Various organizations have prepared
active fault distribution maps and seismic
tectonic maps with different scales. Some
developed countries have obtained continual
strain characteristics of large-scale regions
in the deformation of large plate boundary
belts and fault structure, so as to explore the
mechanism of fault movement and the possible
formation of earthquakes under the regional
tectonic strain. In recent years, research on the
relationship between Craton destruction and
strong earthquakes as well as the relationship
between mantle upwelling and forming of
strong earthquakes has been performed.
Although the plate tectonic theory adequately
explains tectonic activities of earthquake
and volcanoes in plate boundary belts, it
is unable to explain intraplate earthquake
activities, especially ancient Craton intraplate
earthquake activities. Many scholars have
recently carried out research on the cause
of Craton intraplate earthquakes. Statistical
analysis of the corresponding relationship
between Bouguer gravity anomalies and
Craton intraplate earthquakes in Russia,
Africa, Australia, South America and North
America by Ryzhii indicates that Craton
intraplate earthquakes have mostly occurred
in Bouguer negative anomaly zones. Yoshihisa
et al. put forward several models of Craton
intraplate earthquakes and pointed out that
the model for local stress concentration
caused by mantle uplifting, intra-crust
rupture and downward extension can be
properly used to explain the cause of seriously
destructive intraplate earthquakes. However
a widely recognized model for the cause of
earthquakes has not yet been established.
30
2) Earthquake monitoring networks and

quick reporting
Many countries, esp ecially develop ed
countries such as the US, France and
Germany, etc., have constructed their local,
national and global seismological stations and
networks for fast reporting of earthquakes.
For instance, USGS, UN, and EU jointly
established GDACS, which generated the
fast post-earthquake information circulation
and warning system, and the Pager system
established by NEIC, USGS. Some other
countries also established stations and networks
for gravity, geomagnetism, crustal deformation,
geo-electricity and underground fluid.
3) Seismic experiment field
For several decades, aiming to carry out
scientific exploration with different scientific
thoughts, seismic experiment fields have
been established around the world, through
which enormous data and achievements
were obtained. Based on the former Parkfield
seismic prediction experiment field, the US
established a multi-disciplinary comprehensive
research site in southern California in order to
research and develop the models for seismic
prediction and disaster evaluation. Japan has
established its seismic prediction experiment
field at Yamasaki to carry out research on
the earthquake precursor observations. The
European Union developed its earthquake
precursor and earth crush activity experiment
field at Collins Bay in southern Greece and
its deep-well stress observation experimental
field in Iceland to carry out research on
earthquake prediction, and have achieved
remarkable progress. The former Soviet Union
once established the Kamchatka experimental
field and a number of other experiment fields
in Thousand Island- Sakhalin, Garm and
Tashkent. Germanys GEOFON Program,
France and the USs EarthScope Program,

and Japans Poseiden Project have established
the high-accuracy point positioning and
flowing earthquake monitoring stations.
The US is promoting the ANSS program.
The goal of this program is to carry out the
research on the volcanic eruption and the
physical process of earthquake gestation and
occurrence. The New Earthquake Prediction
Program proposed by Japan in 1997 employs
the so-called Carpet earthquake monitoring
station arrangement scheme, which established
a digital earthquake monitoring station for
every 100 km2.
4) Earthquake prediction research
In the early 20th century, developed countries
began to carry out research on the earthquake
prediction at different levels due to the tragic
losses from the San Francisco earthquake in
the US in 1906 and the Great Kanto earthquake in Japan in 1923. Although some important achievements have been made, no breakthrough has been obtained in short-term
and impending earthquake prediction. This
is a challenge for the international academic
community of earthquake researchers.
2) Urban earthquake disaster prediction and

risk assessment
After the Xingtai earthquake in 1966, Chinese
scientists began to make seismic hazard
analysis for buildings and lifeline projects,
and established the earthquake disaster
loss prediction model based on historical
earthquake disasters in this country. In 2003,
the national standard, Code for Earthquake
Disaster Evaluation and Its Information
Management System (GB/T 19428-2003),
was promulgated and provided the scientific
basis for urban planning and earthquake
disaster emergency management. Some
developed countries and regions in the world,
such as the US and Japan, have also carried
out research on urban earthquake disaster
prediction based on the prediction models,
for instance, HAZUS of the US. The Asian
Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) has
also carried out demonstration research on
urban disaster prevention and achieved great
progress, so have New Zealand and Turkey.
Up to now, most researches on earthquake
disaster estimation and risk assessment mainly
concern urban areas in developed countries
and regions.
2. Risk Assessment and Prevention of

Earthquake Disaster
3) Seismic zoning and planning
1) Research on active faults and seismogenic

structure surveys
Many countries with high earthquake

o ccurrence have pro duced the four th
generation seismic zoning map. In recent
years, researchers conducted global seismic
disaster zoning. For example, GSHAP (Global
Seismic Hazard Assessment Program, 2002)
and CIESIN and the Seismic Center of the
Columbia University of America have carried
out research on global natural disaster risk
assessment and the distribution maps of
human casualty and economic loss prediction.
These build up a relatively complete database.
Developed countries with high earthquake

occurrence, such as the US and Japan, carried
out the survey on concealed zone and urban
active fault and the assessment of seismic risk
and hazard as early as the 1980s, achieving
good survey and experimental results. China
also started investigation, research, simulation
and experiment on seismogenic structure
three decades ago.
31
4) Earthquake disaster prevention and

prediction
At present, the countries like the US, Japan,
Mexico and Turkey are actively carrying out
research on earthquake warning system,
and have established the urgent automatic
earthquake response system at a certain
scale. In nuclear power stations, subways,
and fuel and gas pipe networks, these systems
have been extensively used. Japan has
established the national earthquake warning
system, which makes it possible to circulate
warning message to the emergency response
departments of various industries and highspeed railways within several minutes after
earthquakes happen. The earthquake warning
system in California of the US is now in trial
operation. Europe has already approved the
plan to establish an earthquake warning system.
3. Progress in Tsunami Warning System
Construction
Many countries and regions around the
Pacific Ocean have established tsunami
early warning systems. At present, the
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is mainly
responsible for issuing the tsunami warning
to the countries along the Pacific Ocean. The
center was established with the instructions
of IOC in Hawaii, US in 1966. Later, some
countries and regions have successively
established their tsunami warning centers,
including the Hawaiian Tsunami Warning
Center (established in 1948), Alaska and West
Coast Tsunami Warning Center (established
in 1968), the Japan Tsunami Warning Center
(established in 1952), the Soviet Union
Tsunami Warming Center (established in
1952), the South Pacific Oceans Polynesian
Tsunami Warming Center (established in
1965), and so on.
32
The main task of these various warning

centers, especially the Pacific Ocean Tsunami
Warning System, is to collect and transmit
the information on tsunamis occurring along
the coast of Pacific Ocean and warn the tsunami
through the national broadcasting network
and television station to the public. Up to now,
there are 53 tide stations and 51 earthquake
stations of many countries participating in the
Pacific Ocean tsunami warning network, and
undertaking the monitoring task of underwater
earthquakes and tsunamis.
The tsunami disaster triggered by the Indian
Ocean Earthquake in 2004 gained attention
worldwide. The countries around the Indian
Ocean, such as Indonesia, India and Thailand,
have established their own tsunami early
warning systems separately. The US National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
has placed numerous buoys worldwide, which
contributes to the unified global tsunami
buoy monitoring network together with the
buoys in Australia, Thailand and Chile.
4. Earthquake Disaster Emergency
Response and Rescue
1) Construction of the technical system for
earthquake emergency command
Countries such as the US and Japan, pay great
attention to the use of spatial information
collection technology in rapidly obtaining
earthquake disaster information as well as
the construction of technical equipment
used to collect the information at earthquake
sites. In the coming one or two years, many
countries including the US and France, will
launch 0.3m-resolution remote sensing
satellites. Japan has developed a disaster
information collecting system specially
designed to survey serious earthquake sites.
Some developed countries have established
emergency command technical systems,

such as the technical systems of FEMA of
the US and Tokyo Metropolitan Disaster
Prevention Center of Japan. China has also
established such a system at the earthquake
relief headquarters of the State Council,
the command centers of each province
(or municipality), and the fast emergency
decision-making technology response system
for medium and large cities.
2) Research on worldwide earthquake
disaster warning and prediction
Since 2005, in order to meet the urgent
demand of fast response to earthquakes and
other natural disasters, Chinas National
Earthquake Response Support Ser vice
(NERSS) has preliminarily carried out
fast estimation of strong international
earthquakes and catastrophic disasters.
For example, NERSS made fast judgment
and rescue suggestions to the earthquake
in south Asia in 2005. At present, NERSS
has carried out nearly 40 fast judgments for
strong earthquake disasters and accumulated
experiences. However, it has been found that
there is difficulty to rapidly judge the degree of
earthquake disaster only by depending on the
prediction model and indirect information on
a disaster situation.
The USGS has now succeeded in issuing realtime earthquake information, which provides
parameters of magnitude, epicenter position,
hypocenter depth as well as a circular
distribution shaking map that mainly includes
ground acceleration distribution. However, it
mainly provides a fast blind estimation result
without information on seismogenic structure
and natural attributes of earthquake disasters.
The lack of information on population
distribution and social and economic
attributes still makes it impossible to give a
suggestion on fast judgment of earthquake

disaster situation and trend analysis.
In recent years, the GDACS (Global Disaster
Alert and Coordination System) jointly
established by the UN and the European Union
has made great progress in disaster prediction,
model computation, media monitoring and
fast response. The system not only provides
seismic parameters after a disaster occurs, but
also roughly estimates the possibly affected
population. It has issued warning information
of many strong earthquakes around the
world many times. However, it produced
comparatively large prediction errors, and also
lacked the subsequent information on disaster
estimation and disaster response in the last two
years.
The earthquake disaster estimation team led
by Professor N. Frolova from the seismic
center of the Institute of Geolog y and
Ecology of the Russian Academy of Sciences
has carried out various types of researches
involving earthquake disaster prediction
and warning. These researches include the
assessment of natural disaster risk, the realtime simulation of the damage evaluation on
strong earthquake disaster, and the technical
system construction. Presently, the team has
completed the databases for population and
active fault distribution of Russia and some
other areas, which enables great progress of
fast estimation of loss in serious earthquake
disaster, but the follow-up information of
disaster trend and response is absent.
3) Preliminary establishment of the international earthquake emergency response
and rescue team system
In terms of emergency rescue, China, the
US, Japan and the European Union have
established several disaster emergency rescue
teams consisting of government, NGOs and
33
communities. The rescue teams, which have

advanced equipments, strong rescue capacity,
and on-site emergency-response ability can
carry out emergency rescue for disasters
occurring all over the world. They have
already become the new force in earthquake
rescue and an effective measure for diplomacy
among countries.
4) Catastrophic earthquake disaster rescue
and coordination
The On-site Operations Coordination Center
(OSOCC) of United Nations Office for
the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
(OCHA) is usually responsible for conducting
on-site rescue for catastrophic disasters. The
United Nations Disaster Assessment and
Coordination (UNDAC) team is responsible
for providing disaster assessment results
and rescue demands. After a catastrophic
disaster, OCHA will prepare the disaster
situation and rescue demand distribution
map based on the ground disaster situation
information and high-resolution spatial
information provided by the government of
the disaster-affected country, volunteers and
some specialists. These graphic documents
and the rescue resources allocation are only
available in several days and it is impossible
to immediately provide relevant information
demanded after a disaster occurs. So far
there are not only few professional rescue
institutions or organizations that rapidly
provide decision-making suggestions on
rescue, but also few sharing platforms that
rapidly provide decision-making suggestions
and allocate rescue resources. Therefore,
it is presently impossible to effectively and
accurately provide information for rescue
decision and resources allocation.
34
5) Disaster response command and rescue

The developed countries located in strong
seismic belts have established a nationallevel and local-level technical system for
emergency command and rescue, for example
many major cities in Japan and all states in the
US. The rescue system under the framework
of the United Nations has been formed for
catastrophic disaster rescue, and a series
of guidelines have been issued, such as the
INSARAG guidelines for international rescue.
During the tenth Five-Year Plan period,
China has constructed a state-level and
province-level earthquake relief headquarters
technolog y system, and preliminar ily
established the work platform for seismic
regime, disaster situation, measure, command
and information. This provides basic support
for the governments and the relevant
departments to make earthquake relief.
3.2 Time-Space Occurrence

Frequency of
Earthquake Disaster
Earthquakes occur very frequently in the
world, around 5 million times annually,
including 18-20 strong earthquakes above
M s 7.0 and 100-200 strong earthquakes
with M s 6.0-6.9. Approximately one third
of earthquakes originate in the interior of
continents or peripheral sea areas. There are
2-5 catastrophic earthquakes every year, mainly
along the interior earthquake belt of HimalayasAlps and Eurasia, mid-ocean-ridge earthquake
belt, and circum-Pacific earthquake belt (Figure
3.3, 3.4, 3.5 and 3.6).
The latest research shows that the cycle of
earthquake above M s 7.8 in the world is
16 years, with alternate distribution along
the circum-Pacific belt and the equatorial
degree in China, which has frequent occurrence

of earthquakes, cover half of its territory,
including 23 provincial capital cities and two
thirds of the large cities with a population of
over 1 million. Presently, 650 million of the
800 million people living in rural areas are
living in the areas with high seismic intensity.
The earthquake casualties in these areas
account for half of the total global earthquake
casualties. Since the second half of the
20th century, the death toll of earthquakes
accounts for half of the deaths attributed to
natural disasters.
belt (Figure 3.4). Since 1897, a total of 6

cycles have occurred, and it is now at the
7th cycle along the equatorial band. Sixteen
catastrophic earthquakes took place during
the 7th cycle along the equatorial band, and
there will be 10 to 20 catastrophic earthquakes
in the coming 10 years (Table 3.2). Earthquakes
along equatorial band are more catastrophic
than those along circum-Pacific belt. In the
past few years, the Indian Ocean earthquake
tsunami and the Pakistan earthquake are both
catastrophic earthquakes of this cycle.
The areas with high intensity of above VII
180
120W 60W
60E
120E
180
60N
60N
30N
30N
30S
30S
60S
60S
180
120W 60W
60E
120E
180
Figure 3.3 Worldwide distributions of earthquake belts
B Type
A Type
Figure 3.4 Distribution of earthquakes Ms 7.8 worldwide during 1897-2007

(Revised by Ma Zongjin)
35
Table 3.2 Distribution of earthquakes Ms 7.8 worldwide during 1897-2008

(Revised by Ma Zongjin)
Cycle
Parameter
Statistic item
II
III
IV
VI
VII
Starting and
ending year
18971916
19171933
19341951
19521968
19691980
19811988
19992008
Interval in this
cycle (year)
19
16
17
16
11
17
10
Earthquake
frequency (time)
11
34
44
26
23
27
16
Activity belt
Along the
equator
Circum-Pacific
Along the
equator
Circum-Pacific
Along the
equator
Circum-Pacific
Along the
equator
1) Interior earthquake belt of the HimalayasAlps and Eurasia

The east part of the earthquake belt starts from
nearby Indonesian Banda Sea (Figure 3.5)
and extends westward through Indonesias
arc-shaped archipelago, Himalayas and
Qinghai-Tibet Plain - Mongolian PlateauNorth China, Russian Lake Baikal, Pamirs
- Zagros-Plateau of Iran, Turkey, Greece,
Caucasus-Alps, and ends at the Pyrenees.
This earthquake belt is the zone with frequent
occurrences of catastrophic earthquakes,
often causing serious human casualties. 36
of the 44 earthquakes worldwide since 1900
occurred in this belt (Table 3.1), resulting
in approximately 1.3 million deaths, and
accounts for 76.5% of total death toll from
earthquakes. Since 2000, international
earthquake rescue concentrates completely
on this earthquake belt. According to the
theory of plate tectonics, this meizoseismical
zone is a strong earthquake deformation zone
formed as a result of continent- on- continent
collision from the subduction of the African
plate and Indian plate towards Eurasia. It
is also the zone with the highest crustal
deformation speed, in which the Banda Sea
area and Himalayas, are areas with highest
36
yearly deformation magnitude (Table 3.2).

The coming decade will be a period where
catastrophic earthquakes are likely to occur
in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle
East, demanding great attention from the
international community.
According to time-space distribution and
active structure and strong deformation belt
distribution of earthquake in the past, this
earthquake belt will still be the area where
strong earthquakes frequently occur. The
countries and regions that will be affected
by frequent strong earthquakes (Figure 3.3,
3.4 and 3.5) include Indonesia, Thailand,
Burma, Bangladesh, China, Mongolia,
Pakistan, Bhutan, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam,
India, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia,
Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Greece, Croatia, Bulgaria,
Yugoslavia, Romania, Bosnia-Montenegro,
Albania, Italy, Algeria, France and Spain.
2) The Circum-Pacific earthquake belt
The countries and regions in and around
the Circum-Pacific earthquake belt (Figure
3.6) include: the Andes Mountain range in
South America, Central America - Caribbean
30E
60E
90E
120E
150E
60N
60N
30N
30N
30S
30S
30E
60E
90E
120E
150E
Figure 3.5 Interior earthquake belt of the Himalayas - Alps and Eurasia
Sea, Cordillera Mountains, Alaska in North

America, Bailing Sea - Kurile Islands, Okinawa,
Chinese Taipei, the Philippines, Tonga and
New Zealand. This earthquake belt is the
place where catastrophic earthquakes and
disasters are most likely to occur, which
tend to cause serious casualties. 8 of the
44 catastrophic earthquakes worldwide
since 1900 occurred in this earthquake belt
(Table 3.1), and resulted in approximately
400,000 deaths, accounting for 33.5% of
total earthquake death toll. According to the
theory of plate tectonics, this meizoseismal
zone is formed as a result of ocean-continent
collision from subduction of the Pacific plate
towards South America, North America, North
Pole, Euroasia and Oceanian tectonic plates.
Based on the time-space distribution of the
earthquakes in the past and the distribution of
active tectonics and strong deformation belts,
this earthquake belt will still be the zone with
frequent occurrences of strong earthquakes in
the future. The countries and regions that will
be affected by frequent occurrences of strong
earthquakes (Figure 3.3, 3.4 and 3.6) include

New Zealand, Tonga, Papua New Guinea, the
Philippines, Japan, Russia, the US, Canada,
Mexico, Central America, Colombia, Ecuador,
Peru and Chile. As a result of continual
subduction of the Pacific tectonic plate to the
mainland boundary, strong earthquakes are
still likely to occur.
3) The Central-ocean ridge earthquake belt
This earthquake belt spreads at the middle
ridge of Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and
Indian Ocean, and is the Central-oceanic
ridge earthquake belt between the Pacific
Ocean and Atlantic Ocean as well as the
Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean (Figure
3.3, 3.4, 3.5 and 3.6). Some part of this
earthquake belt is located at a transform fault.
Only earthquakes with medium and small
magnitude are likely to occur in a central
oceanic ridge earthquake belt, so few strong
earthquakes have happened. The earthquake
above Ms 7.0 has only occurred at the midAtlantic ridge between North America and
37
90E
120E
150E
180
150W
120W
90W
60W
30W
60N
60N
30N
30N
30S
30S
60S
60S
90E
120E
150E
180
150W
120W
90W
60W
30W
Figure 3.6 Circum-Pacific earthquake belt
Europe and the central oceanic ridge between

the South Pole and South America, which has
initiated an earthquake tsunami. For example,
on November 1, 1755, the earthquake with
Richter magnitude 9 occurring near the sea
area of Lisbon, Portugal caused an earthquake
tsunami and resulted in serious casualties
(Figure 3.3).
global tectonic structure, seismic mechanism,

earthquake monitoring, earthquake tsunami,
disaster prevention, disaster risk, disaster
warning and emergency response still remain
to be solved and call for human societys longterm joint efforts.
3.3 Scientific Issues
1. Global Tectonic Dynamics and Seismic

Origin
3.3.1 General Description

As a natural phenomenon, earthquakes have
long been a concern of academic research
because it usually causes serious harm to
human beings. The results and causes of
earthquake disasters still remain an unsolved
mystery in modern society. Human beings
have understood some earthquakes and
catastrophic phenomenon, but a number
of scientific issues in the aspects, such as
38
3.3.2 Seismic Origin and Global

Tectonic Structure
In general, the occurrence of earthquakes

with M s 5.0 or above relates to the tectonic
plates. Although we have known that strong
earthquakes above Ms 7.0 occur approximately
18-20 times each year and strong earthquakes
above M s 6.0 about 150-200 times, of which
95% earthquakes are distributed in the circumPacific earthquake belt, the Himalayas-Alps
earthquake belt, the Eurasian earthquake belt
and the central oceanic ridge earthquake belt.
However, the tectonic mechanism of how
these earthquakes occur, the plate interaction

and the seismic activity are still unclear.
Furthermore, the tectonic mechanism of
the earthquakes in seismic structural belts
worldwide, especially the mechanism and the
location of strong earthquakes above Ms 8.0
is still unclear. This is also true of research
on present tectonic kinematics and dynamics
at a global scale. It is necessary to carry out
comprehensive research on seismic mechanisms
of earthquakes range from catastrophic, strong
to medium magnitude at a global, regional
and local scale. Only by studying these can we
begin to understand the mechanism behind
catastrophic earthquakes and hence predict the
location of earthquakes of Ms 7.0 or the greater.
The present global tectonic structure and its
dynamics is a long-term research topic in the
academic community. The tectonic differences
between the earth and its dynamic source, the
earth crust and lithosphere distortion and the
displacement and its relation with earthquakes,
especially the forming structure of strong
earthquake, has always been the main focus.
2. Regional Tectonic Dynamics and
Seismic Origin
The Himalayas-Alps earthquake belt and the
Eurasian interior earthquake belt have the
highest frequency of catastrophic earthquakes.
Late quaternary tectonic activities, present
active faults, present surface rupture zone,
ancient seismic motion route and speed,
deformation field, stress field, and deepseated dynamic mechanism in this region are
all still unclear. The identification of seismic
structure (including thrust, strike-slip, and
normal fault), the epicenter, the mechanism
and the location of rupture zone of potential
strong earthquakes are the issues that need to
be solved urgently.
1) Physical processes and mechanisms of

earthquakes
The mechanism of a strong earthquake
is very complex. At present, a number of
critical scientific issues remain to be solved,
including the relationship between shallow
structure and deep structure of the seismic
source. Other unsolved issues are: the
relationship between physical parameters
of the ground and their changes of seismic
source, characteristics of fault deformation
and seismic nucleation processes, seismic
rupture processes and the dynamics, stress
evolution and earthquake triggering, physical
field evolution of seismic sources, and possible
earthquake precursor information. The research
on these issues requires multidisciplinary
col l ab orat ion of ge olog y, ge ophysics,
geodetic survey, and geochemistry, as well as
integration of multiple technical measures
such as observation, survey, experiment and
simulation.
2) Mechanisms of seismic belts in plate
boundaries
Ocean-continent plate subduction belts,
continent-continent plate subductioncollision belts and the mechanisms that caused
strong earthquakes have been the long time
focus of scientists. A number of issues remain
to be identified, including block boundary
formation, tectonic features of continentcontinent collision and forming mechanisms,
large-scale strike-slip boundaries at regional
scales, large-scale arc structures, areas affected
by continent-continent collision, and the
spatial distribution of strong earthquakes.
3) Mechanisms of strong earthquakes inside
ancient Craton
A number of issues remain to be identified,
39
including the deep structure mechanism of

strong earthquakes occurring in intra-plate of
the North China Craton, the North America
Craton and the Indian Craton. The relationship
between Craton damage and strong
earthquakes (such as the Tangshan earthquake,
the India Gujart earthquake and the American
New Madrid earthquake), and the forming
of intra-plate strong earthquake and rupture
processes are yet to be fully explored.
3.3.3 Earthquake Monitoring

and Prediction
1. Earthquake Monitoring
At present, many countries have established
earthquake prediction experimental sites
and seismic precursor monitoring networks
(mag net ic f ields, gravit ational f ields,
deformation fields, stress fields, hydration, and
water levels) to monitor various anomaly fields
and to make earthquake predictions. Usually
the appearance of precursor abnormity has no
direct relationship with earthquakes, or only
part of the abnormity has a corresponding
relationship with earthquakes. It is difficult
to make short-term earthquake predictions
based on some abnormal phenomena,
because actual seismic abnormity is usually
restricted and affected by many factors.
Furthermore, the layout of regional seismic
monitoring networks cannot entirely control
potential seismic fault, which can result
in the missing of the capturing of local
abnormity. This is a failure in short-term
and impending earthquake predictions. It is
critical for developing countries to establish
seismic precursor monitoring networks for
earthquake prediction.
2. Earthquake Prediction
Earthquake prediction, especially the shortterm and impending earthquake prediction of
40
which the time, location, scale and magnitude

should be correctly predicted is recognized by
various scientific groups as a difficult problem.
1) Short-term predictions
It is difficult to accurately predict seismic
parameters such as seismic type (before-shocks,
main shock, the main shock and aftershocks
including swarm shocks, double shocks, isolated
shocks, etc.), seismic structure, direction,
magnitude, time and location. These prove to be
difficulties for scientific research.
2) Medium-term predictions
We use knowledge of past abnormities,
such as those detected by GPS deformation
surveys, mobile geomagnetism surveys, and
changes in gravity fields to make a prediction.
However, the probabilities of successful
predictions are very low.
3) Long-term predictions
Earthquake security assessment may adopt
either one of the confirmation methods
the probability method, the comprehensive
analysis method or the simulation method
to give potential seismic sources and predict
the upper limit of earthquake magnitudes.
We may use information on active fault
lines, seismic structures, seismic rupture
mechanisms and models for seismic risk
assessment for long-term prediction. The
prediction accuracy is generally high.
3. Earthquake Abnormity Detection and
Prediction
The correlation between earthquake abnormity
monitoring and earthquake prediction,
namely the corresponding relationship
between the abnormities to be monitored (for
example, the macroscopic seismic phenomena

of seismic abnormities, abnormity scope,
and magnitude, etc.) and prediction of
seismic time, location and magnitude is a
long-term problem needing to be solved for
earthquake prediction.
3.3.4 Earthquake Tsunami

Warnings
1. Global Tsunami Early Warning
Systems
Strong tsunamis can seriously damage many
countries and regions along the ocean coast.
Presently, tsunami warning systems at the
global, regional and local scale is absent.
2. Global Tsunami Monitoring
Capabilities and Sharing Mechanisms
The three-dimensional ocean monitoring
systems which could meet the requirements
of prompt data monitoring in tsunami
prevention and relief are yet to be formed.
Because international sharing mechanisms
for prompt data monitoring has not been
established, it is quite difficult to respond to a
tsunami efficiently.
3. Tsunami Disaster Mechanisms and
Early Warning Systems Research
Tsunami disasters cannot be precisely
forecasted in time at this stage. All the reasons
why earthquake tsunamis form, especially
the mechanisms behind those caused by
slow earthquakes, landslides, hurricanes and
celestial bodies striking the ocean, are yet to
be discovered. However, there are presently
researches being conducted on the value of
tsunami elevation warning systems with high
accuracy (20m), and quantitative tsunami
warning technologies, as well as storm
disaster risk evaluation technologies which
are yet to be completely established.

4. Tsunami Disaster Divisions and
Evaluation
At present, many areas at risk of impending
tsunami disasters have not had any completed
disaster evaluations. The disaster evaluation
includes a tsunami coverage map, risk map
and emergency evacuation map for areas
where tsunami frequently occur. In these
areas, rapid warning and effective planning
against tsunamis are difficult to achieve.
5. Efficient Sharing of Tsunami Warning
Information
The most important facet of a tsunami warning
system is the fast way of sharing and spreading
information. This is pivotal because the
warning time is quite short for a tsunami and
the information should be issued as soon as
possible. Now, many countries spread the
warnings by fax, which is quite inefficient.
Information about impending tsunamis
should b e communicated quick ly and
efficiently to those disaster zones.
3.3.5 Earthquake Disaster

Prevention
1. Earthquake Disaster Zoning and Risk
Assessment
(1) Earthquake disaster zoning is an important
basis for earthquake disaster prevention.
In recent years, developed countries have
conducted a large amount of earthquake
disaster zoning and risk assessment, such as
the GSHAP project Hot Spots of Natural
Disasters. However, due to the restriction of
basic information and methods of assessment,
it is still impossible to effectively complete
earthquake zoning. Essentially, this reflects
the level of risk assessment based on economy
41
and population distributions for earthquake

disasters. Technologies for the recognition
of large potential earthquakes and average
occurrence rates need to be researched and
developed.
(2) It is necessary to evaluate the dangers of
earthquakes. Evaluation methods exist, such
as the determination method, the probability
method and the PGA. Improvements in theories
and methods of earthquake risk assessment
based on seismic activity and active fault
exploration can still be made. It is also necessary
to carry out integrated researches on disaster
changes (magnitude, intensity), disaster degree
(hazard), risk, and loss estimation (injuries,
deaths and economic losses) in areas of a strong
likelihood of earthquakes happening.
2. Mechanisms of Strong Ground
Motion Leading to the Destruction of
Engineering Structures
(1) It is very important to develop an analysis
method on structure collapse prevention and
the deformation of buildings in the advent of
a major earthquake. Research on the effects of
an earthquake on essential infrastructure (tank
towers, bridge, dams, underground pipelines,
communication systems, power supply systems,
water and gas supply systems) and new style
structures (high-rise and super high-rise
buildings, mega-frame structures, mixed structures
of steel and reinforced concrete, reinforced
masonry structures of concrete blocks) are all
partly important scientific problems we are
currently facing. Research on these aspects
will vastly improve the safety for all.
(2) It is critically important for developing
countries to carry out applicable research on
active fault exploration, earthquake disaster
forecasts and emergency decision making
in cities. Early warnings are required by
important engineering and housing projects
42
to increase the capabilities of prevention,

planning and emergency management of
cities and countries.
(3) Developing countries need to increase
the capabilities of earthquake monitoring and
prevention in important areas. Detailed surveys
of seismic structures and multi-disciplinary
integrated research on three-dimensional
seismic structures for investing earthquake
disasters need to be conducted. Also, research
on ground motion and attenuation regularity
of earthquakes and earthquake disaster
forecasts needs to be increased. Key aspects of
this research includes: site condition, building
types, facility types, lifeline projects, population,
economic belt and scale.
3. Exploration of Active Fault Lines and
Assessment of Earthquake Hazards in
Urban and Other Important Areas
It is important to explore the seismic structure
of active faults which usually lead to frequent
middle to strong category earthquakes when
planning and constructing cities or other
important areas. Research must be carried out
on the mechanism of earthquake generation
and seismic structures, the assessment of
earthquake activities including earthquake
repetition period, and the potential losses that
future earthquake may incur. Some scientific
problems are as follows:
(1) How to establish a model combining
geometry, kinematics and dynamics between
deep and shallow fault structures. How
the three-dimensional fault distribution of
earthquakes reflects the seismic structure of
the earthquake is a key scientific problem.
(2) The utilization of existing technologies
and methods (the determination method, the
probability method, and the finite element
simulation) of obtaining correct assessment
of the risk of earthquakes is a key scientific

problem at present.
(3) The establishment of essential three-dimensional velocity structure and epicenter rupture
models of seismic faults is also a key problem in
the assessment of earthquake hazards.
4. Earthquake Disaster Estimation
and Prevention in Urban and Other
Important Areas
It is important for some areas with frequent
middle to strong category earthquakes to
plan and construct an earthquake disaster
prevention infrastructure. Thus, research on
possible future earthquake scenarios, earthquake
disaster estimation of essential buildings and
the evaluation of secondary disaster, human
injury and death, and direct economic loss
should be undertaken. It is necessary to carry
out planning of earthquake disaster prevention
in urban areas, distribution optimization of
evacuation field for earthquake avoidance,
and estimation method of earthquake disaster
of building and lifeline engineering, especially
research on the evaluation method of indirect
economic loss caused by earthquake. It is also
necessary to carry out research on technology
and method of earthquake disaster prevention,
including earthquake warning and prevention
countermeasure of lifeline engineering (express
railway, power supply, communication, and so
on) and important engineering facilities (nuclear
power station, dam).
3.3.6 Emergency Response

and Rescue
1. Earthquake Disaster Emergency
Response, Decision-Making and
Treatment
(1) There are on average 18-20 strong earthquakes of over Ms 7.0 each year, of which about
1-2 become disasters. In order to start assistance

in time, national and international rapid
estimate and trend study of earthquake disaster
must be undertaken to recognize serious
effects following the strong earthquakes. It is
urgent to carry out a systematic analysis and
quantitative or semi-quantitative analysis of
emergency and assistance cases in national
and international earthquake disasters and
relative research result, and to put forward
the division principle and target of national
and international earthquake disaster scale,
propose quantitative target of national and
international earthquake disasters, establish
information database planning and relative
code, and establish the model of early rapid
judgment and trend forecast of national and
international earthquake disasters. It is also
urgent to establish the model of disaster
trend, meizoseismal area position and disaster
scale, emergency response level and assistance
demand, and determine the quantitative
emergency rescue response starting mode
with total death as the main target, so as to
rapidly judge the disaster and its trend and
propose decision and suggestion of assistance
within 2-3 hours after international strong
earthquake or within an hour after national
strong earthquake.
(2) It is urgent for developing countries to
carry out research on the practical processing
scheme in disaster based on disaster degree,
distribution scale, local economy and
present situation of social development, and
systematic research on the method, basis,
scientific and feasibility of the processing
scheme in disaster.
(3) In order to effectively and scientifically
carry out rescue mission, the evaluation for
the decision-making of rescue processing
and rescue effect after the earthquake must
be undertaken, and special and highly
effective rescue mission must be carried out
43
towards each disaster. At present, it is urgent

to establish the standard efficiency analysis
system of emergency rescue and develop the
efficiency evaluation method of scientific
emergency rescue.
(4) In order to elevate the emergency rescue
capability in the earthquake, research on
emergency rescue theory and technology
should be comprehensively enforced, including:
research on emergency division of the
earthquake and intellectual, regional and special
emergency rescue technology and management
scheme in the earthquake; disaster information
acquisition technology in conformance to the
situation of developing countries, including
research on emergency disaster recognition
and decision-making technology, earthquake
disaster rapid recognition technology, and
disaster recognition and integrated processing
technology of multipoint simultaneous
information; site disaster information collection
and evaluation technology; research on rapid
disaster evaluation technology of major target in
the earthquake and rapid evaluation technology
of the transport capability of traffic line, rapid
evaluation and decision-making technology of
effective judgment of earthquake disaster, and
emergency rescue management technology in
earthquake in cities.
2. Theory and Method of Emergency
Rescue Management of Earthquake in
Urban Area
It is a scientific problem we are facing of how
to carry out rapid and effective assistance
under the situation of serious earthquake
disaster in cities with thousands of buildings
collapsing or being destroyed. It is urgent to
carry out research on optimized technology
of site rescue activity scheme and relative
technical systems, that is, analyzing the effect
of each factor in the rescue process based on the
44
optimized design theory to determine rescue

activity scheme under different conditions
and establish site coordination management
standard of rescue on the basis of building
structure type, remains type, situation of buried
persons, safety condition, rescue equipment,
medical equipment, and personnel. It is urgent
to study disaster style, and group organization
scheme of rescue team, position assignment,
and equipment distribution at various disaster
scales, and to put forward with coordination of
site rescue activity and scientific management
mode of rescue team.
3. Theory and Method of Rescue
Processing of Earthquake Catastrophe
A serious earthquake disaster will cease or
put backward the development of human
society and cause unsustainable development
of cities, regions and countries. However,
scientific rescue theory and method systems
have not been established at present. The
international community has devoted many
years of efforts, but still cannot prevent
serious disasters from taking place and
developing. Since disasters are sudden, large
and serious, rescue decisions are delayed and
unscientific, slowing the rescue process and
resulting in greater loss. Therefore, it is urgent
to carry out research on theory and method
of rescue processing in serious disasters
worldwide in the following aspects:
Response ability construction for catastrophe;
Preparedness, pre-plan and contingency
plan for catastrophe;
Quick and accurate information supports;
Effective coordination mechanics;
Reasonable city planning;
Theory and methods of decision-making,

search and rescue, and disaster relief;
Rescue operation methods and commanding plan under mountain area and complex
situation;
Search object decisions and rescue technology research;
Operation technique optimization depending
on the feature of disaster, and
Capacity construction of information collection, communication and response to serious
disasters; distribution and establishment
of various rescue teams, medical assistance
personnel, rescue equipment and logistics
security, material and rescue scheme.
Although the cause and characteristics of
earthquakes are different from those of other
natural disasters, there are many similar
aspects between them, which can be regarded
as reference in emergency rescue. In fact,
multi-discipline, multi-kind and multisector integrated disaster relief research is an
important development trend in the field of
disaster relief in recent years.
3.4 Suggestions
3.4.1 Experiment Field
Construction for
Earthquake Prediction
1. Selection and Construction of National
Earthquake Experiment Field in
Seismic Zone
Earthquake prediction experiment fields
should be constructed in typical area in
Himalayas-Tethys seismic zone, Eurasia
seismic zone and Circum-Pacific seismic

zone. The premonition forecast and earthquake prediction should be combined.
Various kinds of monitoring should include
active fault deformation measurement in
Holocene, GPS earth crust deformation
measurement, circulating geomagnetism
and gravity measurement, magnetic storm
and ground electricity measurement, ground
stress measurement, temperature abnormity
and remote s ensing t her ma l inf rare d
monitoring, and middle and small earthquake
monitoring. The extraction and recognition of
abnormal premonition should be undertaken,
and recognition marks of various abnormal
premonition of earthquakes should be
established.
(1) It is suggested to begin the construction
of earthquake prediction experiment field in
Himalayas-Tethys seismic zone and Eurasia
seismic zone, such as Laut Banda area, middle
Java and Banda Aceh area of Indonesia,
northeastern and western Pakistan, Zagros
in southern Iran, Turkey, Italy, Alps, rim and
inner part of Tibetan Plateau, and northern
and northwestern China.
(2) It is suggested to begin the construction
of earthquake prediction experiment field in
countries and areas in Circum-Pacific seismic
zone, such as the Philippines, Chinese Taipei,
Japan, Alaska, California, Central America,
Peru and Chile.
2. Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction
Experiment in the Earthquake
Experiment Field
Earthquake monitoring and prediction experiments should be carried out in earthquake
experiment field, and the result of monitoring
and prediction should be exchanged and
compared. The relationship between influence
factors, degree and type of various kinds of
45
abnormity and actual earthquake should

be comprehensively analyzed so as to make
breakthrough in earthquake prediction.
4) The research on monitored abnormal

earthquake premonition and short and
imminent earthquake prediction
1) Earthquake monitoring method and

overall arrangement
The relationship between earthquake abnormity

monitoring and earthquake prediction should
be researched to recognize whether the
monitored abnormity belongs to earthquake
abnormity and also the relation between scale
and level of abnormity and time, location and
magnitude of the earthquake.
Integrated monitoring networks of earthquake premonition (magnetic field,

gravitational field, deformation field, stress
field, hydration and water level) should be
rationally distributed and established in the
earthquake prediction experiment field.
2) The research on present regional structure
dynamics and seismic origin
Research on the quaternary and present
active fault in major active structure zone,
present surface fault zone, movement manner
and speed, deformation field, stress field
and dynamics of ancient earthquake should
be carried out in Himalayas-Tethys seismic
zone, Eurasia seismic zone and CircumPacific seismic zone so as to find out seismic
structure (including thrust, strike-slip and
normal fault, and so on), position and
magnitude of future strong earthquake.
3) The research on physical process and
mechanism of earthquake evolution
The relationship between refined structure
and depth structure of earthquake center area,
physical parameter and change of medium
in earthquake center area, deformation
characteristics of fault zone and nucleation
process of earthquake, earthquake split
process and its dynamics, stress change and
earthquake activation, physical field change
of earthquake center area and possible
premonition information of the earthquake
should be explored and researched.
46
Short and imminent predictions should be

carried out to forecast earthquake parameter
and type (foreshock-main shock, main
shock and after shock, swarm shock, dual
shock, isolated, and so on) and predict type,
direction, magnitude, time and location
of t he s eismic st r uc ture. B ackg round
abnormities such as deformation monitoring
(GPS), circulating magnetism, gravity and
deformation should be utilized to conduct
medium prediction. Earthquake safety
assessment methods should be utilized to
find out potential earthquake epicenter area
and upper limit of earthquake magnitude,
and the mechanism and mode of active fault,
seismic structure and earthquake split, the
risk assessment of earthquake, and the fresh
surface of earthquake should be utilized to
conduct long-term prediction.
3.4.2 Present Structural

Dynamics and Mechanism
of Earthquakes
1. Himalayas-Alps Seismic Zone
1) The research on strong earthquake
mechanism in Himalayas-Alps seismic zone
Research should be focused on seismic
structure, evolution and transfer mechanism
of strong earthquake, mutual effect of blocks
and the earthquake activity, and the relation
between structure junction point and

earthquake evolution in the seismic zone,
especially the forecasting of mechanism,
location, magnitude and time of strong
earthquake over 8.0-magnitude in HimalayasAlps seismic zone. The research on the
mechanism and strong earthquake forecast
in Alps-Caucasus seismic zone, Turkey-Iran
Seismic Zone, Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau
and its rim seismic zone, Myanmar-Indonesia
seismic zone and inner Eurasia seismic zone
should also be carried out.
2) The research on the mechanism of
Indonesia-Laut Banda seismic zone
The mechanism of strong earthquake in the
collision area, which is between northeast
and north subduction zone of India-Oceania
Plate and the subduction zone of PhilippinesTonga Trench, should be studied. The strong
earthquake data and GPS observation data
in the area should be utilized to explain the
regularity and reason of strong earthquake
in the area with the largest present crust
deformation and the formation of Laut
Banda, the area with the largest deformation
in the world today.
2. Circum-Pacific Seismic Zone
Study should be focused on seismic structure,
evolution and transfer mechanism of strong
earthquake, mutual effect of blocks and the
earthquake activity, and the relation between
structure junction point and earthquake
evolution in the seismic zone, especially the
forecast of mechanism, location, magnitude
and time of strong earthquake over 8.0magnitude in Circum-Pacific seismic zone.
Research should also be carried out on the
mechanism and strong earthquake forecast
in Andes Mountain seismic zone, Central
America such Mexico seismic zone, USANatural Disaster Mitigation IAP Report
Western Canada seismic zone, Alaska seismic

zone, Kuril Islands-Japan seismic zone,
Chinese Taiwan-Philippines seismic zone,
and Tonga-New Zealand seismic zone .
3. Central Ocean Ridge Seismic Zone
The researches should be carried out on
the seismic structure, evolution, transfer
mechanism and activity of strong earthquake,
and on the relationship between structure
junction point and earthquake evolution in
the seismic zone, especially the forecasting
mechanism, location, magnitude and time
of strong earthquake over 7.0-magnitude in
central-Ocean Ridge seismic zone, including
the central ridge seismic zone of Pacific,
Atlantic and Indian Ocean, with focus on the
mechanism, location, magnitude and time
of strong earthquake over 7.0-magnitude in
mid-Atlantic ridge.
4. Research on Three Seismic Zone with
Severe Deformation in the World
There are three unique areas in the world,
whose west side is open, and the east side appears
to be circinate seabed and deformation area.
They are the three large areas with shearslip and deep rotation in the world. Present
GPS crust deformation monitoring indicates
that the three areas possess the severest
deformation in the world, and they are
located in the collision area between the
subduction zones of the Indian Ocean Plate
and Pacific Ocean Plate, and the transition
and transformation areas between Pacific
Ocean Plate and Atlantic Ocean Plate
respectively (Figure 3.7, 3.8 and 3.9).
1) Laut Banda-Indonesia Island Arc
It is located in the collision area between the
subduction zones of Indian Ocean Plate and
Pacific Ocean Plate. Its seabed landform is
47
circinate and open to the west, and it is the

area with the largest GPS crust deformation
in the world at present. It forms shallow-deep
earthquake, and the depth can reach about
200km to the maximum (Figure 3.7).
2) Caribbean Sea
The Caribbean Sea is between South America
and North America. Its seabed landform is
circinate and open in the west, which forms
circular islands, including Cuba, Haiti, Dominge,
Fort de France, and so on. It forms shallowdeep earthquake, and the depth can reach about
200km to the maximum (Figure 3.8).
3) Southern Chile-Bird Island
It is located in the Atlantic and Pacific
between South America and Antarctica. Its
seabed landform is circinate and open to the
west, which forms circular islands, including
Bird Island, Edward Point, Signy Island, and
so on. It forms shallow-deep earthquakes,
and the depth can reach about 200km to the
maximum (Figure 3.9).
105E
120E
The research on the relation between crust

deformation and seismic zone of the above
three unique areas may form new global
deformation structure theory and can be
used to forecast the mechanism and future
development of seismic zone.
3.4.3 Earthquake Tsunami

and Warning System
1. Establish Multilevel Global Warning
System
A tsunami warning system is a life saving
system. It is suggested to establish a tsunami
warning system at three levels of global,
regional (three oceans as Pacific Ocean, Indian
Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and four marginal
seas: Mediterranean Sea, South China Sea,
Caribbean Sea and Southwest Pacific) and
national (Figure 3.10).
2. Strengthen the Capability of Global
Monitoring and Constructing the
Resource Sharing Mechanism
The float marker array for tsunami monitoring
135E
15S
15S
105E
120E
135E
Figure 3.7 Earthquake epicenter distributions in Laut Banda-Indonesia Island Arc area
48
75W
90W
60W
15N
15N
75W
90W
60W
Figure 3.8 Earthquake epicenter distributions in the Caribbean Sea area

60W
45W
30W
15W
45S
45S
60S
60S
75S
75S
105W
90W
75W
60W
45W
30W
Figure 3.9 Earthquake epicenter distributions in Southern Chile-Bird Island area
should be set in the area with possible

tsunami; tide level monitor station and
earthquake monitor station on islands and
coast should be increased; ground wave
radar should be set to cover the important
coasts; the remote sensing monitoring
capability construction of oceanographic
satellite should be strengthened to obtain
global three-dimensional sea monitoring
capability (Figure 3.11). In order to fulfill
the data requirement on tsunami prevention

and relief, it is suggested to establish the
tsunami real-time observation data sharing
mechanism as soon as possible.
3. Basic Theory and Warning Technology
Accurate tsunami warning is the precondition and basis of disaster prevention and
mitigation, which is a basic and continuous
49
Figure 3.10 Global tsunami warning system frame
70N
30N
10N
10S
30S
50S
160W
120W
80W
40W
40E
80E
120E
160E
Figure 3.11 Global tsunamis float mark monitoring network
research task. It is suggested to undertake

further research on the mechanism of
tsunami and the warning technology for
it. In order to fulfill the requirements of
disaster prevention and mitigation, the
following tasks are suggested:
Research on the mechanism of tsunami
(esp e ci a l ly tsunami c aus e d by slow
earthquake, slide, hurricane and celestial
body striking the ocean);
Research on the mechanism of the tsunami
50
offshore ascending;
Development of the prediction mode of
tsunami ascending value with super-high
definition (20m);
Research on tsunami quantitative warning
technology, especially research on the
assimilation technology of tsunami digital
mode;
Research on the evaluation technology for
storm disaster risk, and
Research on the new technology (float mark,

satellite altimeter) for tsunami monitoring.

Prevention
4. Research on the Evaluation and

Division of Tsunami Disaster
1. Earthquake Disaster Zoning and Risk

Assessment
It is suggested to make large scale tsunami

coverage maps, risk maps and emergency
evacuation maps in areas with high risk of
tsunami and areas fragile to tsunami so as to
fulfill the requirements of tsunami prevention
and mitigation.
Earthquake zoning should be conducted

based on global earthquake and natural
disaster risk assessment such as GSHAP
and Hot Spot assessment of natural disaster,
which would essentially reflect natural
disaster level of global earthquake disaster.
The risk assessment should also be carried
out combining economy and population
distribution. The recognition technologies of
potential earthquake epicenter area of strong
earthquake and assessment technologies
of annual average rate of high-magnitude
earthquake should be developed. The near field
attenuation relation of strong earthquake, as
well as earthquake prevention standard in
areas with different economic development
level should be studied. Integrated research
on disaster changes (magnitude, intensity),
disaster degree (hazard), risk and loss
estimation (injured and dead population and
economic loss) in areas with strong earthquake
in the future should be carried out, and the
earthquake disaster risk in areas with frequent
earthquake should be recognized. The risk
level of earthquake disaster in seismic zones
in the world and the emergency response level
should be specified, and the division map of
preparation for disaster should be made.
5. Establish the Rapid Distribution System

for the Warning Information
Rapid distribution of warning information is
the key part of a tsunami warning system. It is
suggested to establish distribution system of
satellite communication in the world as well as
rapid warning distribution system in areas of
frequent tsunami and areas fragile to tsunami.
A series of warning messages such as short
message of mobile phone and loudspeaker can
be distributed by such system.
6. Establish Disaster Prevention Facilities
It is suggested to establish disaster prevention
facilities such as dam and tide gate in areas with
frequent tsunami disaster, serious disaster, dense
population and developed economy. It is also
suggested to plant mangrove in the coast zone
to mitigate the tsunami losses.
7. Education and Prevention Exercise
It is suggested to adopt various ways to
popularize education of tsunami disaster
prevention and mitigation; the disaster
prevention and mitigation exercise should be
carried out in areas with serious tsunami.
2. Research on New Structure and Lifeline

Engineering for Earthquake Disaster
Prevention
During the initial period of urbanization
development in developing countries, the
research on the influence of earthquake
disaster on construction structure, lifeline
51
engineering (tank tower, bridge, dam and

buried pipeline, communication system, power
supply system, water and gas supply system)
and new structure (high-rise and super highrise building, mega-frame structure, mixed
structure of steel and reinforced concrete,
reinforced masonry structure of small hollow
concrete block) should be carried out. Thus
effective prevention measures can be arranged
during the initial developing period of the
city.
3. Research on Active Fault Exploration
and Risk Assessment of Earthquake in
Urban and Key Areas
A series of applied research should be done
in the developing countries, including active
fault exploration in the city, earthquake
disaster forecast and decision-making for
emergency in the city, early warning of
important engineering so as to enhance
the prevention, planning and emergency
management capability of city and rural area
in the developing countries.
The research should also include the assessment and zoning of earthquake monitoring
and prevention of major areas, detailed survey
of earthquake structure and multi-disciplinary
integrated research on three-dimensional
earthquake structure, investigation of
earthquake disaster in the history, ground
movement and attenuation regularity of
earthquake, exploration of seismogenic
structure (active fault) which may induce
earthquake and the mechanism of earthquake
evolution and seismogenic structure. Based
on these studies, the assessment of earthquake
activity, earthquake repeat cycle, and the risk
and hazard of future earthquake can be made.
Finally, the earthquake prevention planning
for city construction should be prepared.
52
4. Prediction and Prevention of Earth-quake

Disasters in Urban and Key Areas
Earthquake disaster prevention in infrastructures such as building and lifeline
engineering in urban and key areas should
be taken into account. The research includes
site environment study in future possible
earthquake (scenario earthquake), earthquake
disaster prediction of building and lifeline
engineering and the estimation of secondary
disaster, human injury and death, and direct
economic loss, planning of earthquake
disaster prevention, distribution optimization
of evacuation field for earthquake avoidance,
and forecast and assessment method of
earthquake disaster of building and lifeline
engineering, especially the assessment
method of indirect economic loss caused
by earthquake. The earthquake warning
system and prevention measures for lifeline
engineering (express railway, power supply,
communication, and so on) and important
engineering facilities (nuclear power, dam)
should be developed. The estimation results
of earthquake disaster should be provided
and information platform of emergency
management should be established for city
planning and emergency preparation.
3.4.5 Emergency Management

and Rescue
1. Rapid Report of Global Strong
Earthquake Disaster and Construction
of Decision-Making Network for
Rescuing
(1) Quantitative or semi-quantitative analysis
on national and international serious
earthquake disaster should be carried out to
present the model of early and rapid judgment
and disaster trend forecasting, and also the
model of disaster trend, meizoseismal area

position and disaster scale. The emergency
response level and rescue demand should be
established to initially realize rapid judgment
of disaster and its trend and decision-making
and suggestion of rescue within 2-3 hours
after an international strong earthquake
and within an hour after national strong
earthquake. The emergency rescue effect
should be evaluated after the serious disaster,
analysis target system for emergency rescue
effect should be initially established and the
assessment method for emergency rescue
effect should also be developed.
(2) Rapid judgment of strong earthquake at
the global scale and construction of rescue
response demonstration system
Rapid judgment of strong earthquake at
the global scale and construction of rescue
response demonstration system should be
carried out respectively in both HimalayasAlps seismic zone and Circum-Pacific seismic
zone, mainly including (Figure 3.12):
1) Emergency management database of
earthquake disaster
It includes the database of active fault
distribution, earthquake activity in the
history and seismogenic structure to obtain
attenuation relationship between earthquake
structure and earthquake in each area; the
basic database of geographic and cultural
information on the construction of emergency
rescue in key dangerous areas; the database
on construction of serious earthquake disaster
cases since 1900 and historic earthquake
disaster; and establishment of a group or
several groups of rule or model for feedback
and rapid judgment of disaster situation. It
also includes earthquake prevention standard
of infrastructures such as buildings and
lifeline engineering in seismic zone, building
criteria, seismic vulnerability analysis model

of main types of buildings.
2) Construction of disaster information
acquisition and transport network
The construction of earthquake disaster
information acquisition network mainly
includes two parts of information collection
and communication channel. The collected
information includes the information
collected on the ground and space remote
sensing information (focus on high-resolution
image, supplemented by medium and lowresolution satellite image after the earthquake).
The information collection network and
professional disaster situation data acquisition
network which is formed through global news
collection network. And information and
data communication channel and collection
platform should be established.
3) The research on rapid judgment model of
serious earthquake disaster
Utilize earthquake parameter (earthquake
magnitude, and e ar t hquake epicenter
depth, location, time) and initially judged
seismographic structure type and possible space
distribution after the earthquake to establish
an oval model for predicting strong ground
motion based on parameters of seismographic
structure and earthquake epicenter. Combine
historic earthquake case, dynamic disaster
information and natural and social factors in the
disaster area to establish the rapid judgment
and estimation model of serious disaster based
on incomplete disaster information, so as to
realize judgment and estimation of serious
earthquake disaster under the condition
of incomplete information. Research and
develop decision-making model of emergency
rescue. Analyze the demand of rescue team
in international rescue under different level
53
Figure 3.12 Technical path of rapid judgment and trend forecast of serious earthquake disaster
of earthquake damage. Establish demand

analysis model for rescuer, medical personnel,
rescue equipment, medical equipment and
medicine and logistic security material, and
establish rescue demand and response level
models.
data, population and economy data, and

historic earthquake damage data. Construct
integrated coordination and direction system
of emergency rescue and rapid publication
system of disaster information.
4) The construction of earthquake

emergency rescue system in seismic zone
2. The Construction of Rapid Response

System against Sudden Earthquake
Damage in Developing Countries
Realize rapid assessment of disaster situation

and earthquake damage in strong earthquake
based on remote sensing images with various
spatial resolutions (high, medium, low), establish
subsystem of rapid judgment of disaster
situation based on seismographic structure
54
1) Construction of response mechanism and

system against sudden earthquake damage
in developing countries
Based on 4-level response of country, province,
city, and county, to regulate the starting

condition of each level of prevention scheme
and show developing countries compilation
and starting of earthquake disaster prevention
scheme as well as construction of mechanism
and system of governmental response to
the earthquake disaster, so as to elevate the
governmental response capability against serious
earthquake disaster in developing countries.
Preparedness, pre-plan and contingency

plan against catastrophe.
2) Improve the awareness and capability

of civilians in developing countries for
sudden earthquake events
Effective emergency management and

coordination mechanics.
Statistic of earthquake disasters in the last

century shows that the loss caused by strong
earthquakes over 7.0-magnitude in densely
populated areas in developed countries such
as USA and Japan is quite small, and the
same disasters in developing countries such
as China, India, Pakistan and Iran cause a
hundred times, even ten thousand times
more injury and death. Besides the factors
that the prevention standard of buildings
in developed countries is high and their
disaster prevention capability is also strong,
there is large difference in the awareness
and capability of the civilians to resist sudden
events. Therefore, it is an important measure
to greatly relieve the earthquake disaster by
studying the experience of developed countries
with frequent earthquakes such as the USA and
Japan to improve the awareness and capability
of civilians for resisting sudden events.
3) The demonstration construction of
integrated technical system for sudden
events in developing countries
The construction of an integrated technical
system for sudden events in developing
countries mainly includes the following content:
Methods of disaster information collection
and decision-making for quick response,

to established response ability against
catastrophe.
On-site disaster assessment and operation

of SAR, quick and accurate information
supports.
Reasonable city planning.

Theory and methods of decision-making,
search and rescue, and disaster relief.
Rescue operation methods and commanding
plan under mountain area and complex
situation.
Search object decisions and rescue technology
research.
Operation technique optimization depending
on the feature of disaster.
Relief and post disaster construction.
Education for local residents, volunteers.
3. Realize Cooperated Rescue in Serious
International Earthquake Disaster
1) Realize real-time upgrade and establish
sharing mechanism of emergency data
Due to rapid development and urbanization,
the basis and emergency data of developing
countries continuously and the construction
and real-time upgrade of emergency database
become more difficult. This problem should
be solved by establishing real-time upgrade
and sharing mechanism of emergency data. It
55
is suggested to establish upgrade and sharing

mechanism of basic information database,
upgrade and sharing mechanism of earthquake
disaster database, earthquake disaster information database sharing mechanism and
earthquake emergency information sharing
platform.
management in evacuation field, construction

of direction system of effective arrangement
of injured people and community rescue,
establishment of technical criterion and
standard of evacuation field construction in
cities and engineering building and hardware
construction of emergency sheltering.
2) Construction of serious disaster information

network in large and middle sized cities
4) International, governmental and regional

coordination and cooperation on
emergency rescue
The information network takes short message

and picture sending from mobile cell as main
method and incorporates with real-time
orientation technology of information. The
integrated processing and rapid response
network and publication platform of serious
disaster information should be established
to realize rapid report network of disaster
situation for community-resident committee,
town, district and city, so as to rapidly judge
disaster area, space distribution and damage
degree of its infrastructure, and provide
disaster information and data to 4 levels of
government for emergency response and
rescue decision. Thus rapidly acquiring
disaster information, effectively directing
the rescue and greatly reducing injuries and
deaths can be realized under the damage of
infrastructure and ground monitor system.
3) Rational planning and construction of
sheltering and evacuation field, and
emergency management after the disaster
In the construction of sheltering and evacuation
field, technical systems for rational selection
of evacuation field, scientific management of
evacuated persons and effective distribution of
relief material should be established through
construction of demonstration projects. It
includes: rational selection of evacuation
field in demonstration cities, construction
of technical system of evacuated person
56
Since earthquake disaster is sudden and affects

a large area, international, governmental
and regional coordination and cooperation
mechanism of emergency rescue should be
established under the UN frame among
developing countries in seismic zone, so as to
realize rapid rescue activities.
4. Research on Emergency Response
and Rescue Processing Plan of Serious
Earthquake Disaster
1) Preparation for serious earthquake
disaster
To prevent future serious earthquake disasters,
an effective prevention scheme, including
preparation of rescue personnel and material,
prevention of building and lifeline engineering
against serious disaster, and effective
evacuation and arrangement of the wounded
should be established. Risk assessment of
serious disaster and construction of warning
technology system should be carried out.
2) Emergency response against disaster
It includes serious disaster information
collection, communication and response
capability construction. The research on
method and technology of rapid acquisition
of disaster information, rapid judgment of
disaster situation, and communication and

disaster situation acquisition in the disaster
area, rapid judgment of serious disaster,
scope and level of emergency response,
establishment of rescue processing plan
and emergency rescue direction against the
serious earthquake disaster should be carried
out.
3) Organization, coordination and command
system of rescue in disaster area
The research on rescue coordination and
organization and command system for serious
international disasters in the disaster country
should be carried out under the UN frame
to form effective organization, coordination
and command system of serious disaster
rescue.
4) The research on serious disaster rescue
and restoration processing plan
An earthquake disaster rescue and restoration
processing plan should be established by
different levels of serious disaster, different
places and environments, different traditional
and prevention standards. Especially in
developing countries the research should
focus on the establishment of serious disaster
rescue and restoration processing plan,
such as rescue team, medical and assistance
personnel, rescue equipment and logistic
security, rescue material, evacuation and
arrangement for wounded personnel and
disaster area restoration plan.
57
Tropical Cyclones and Storm

Surges
4.1 Introduction
The weather, climate and water affect almost
all human activities as well as the safety of
human society and economic development.
At the same time, the influence of natural
disasters have been more pronounced.
According to statistics of the past 25 years
(1980-2005) from the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), nearly 90% of the
natural disasters influencing humans were
related to meteorological and water-related
disasters. The economic loss and deaths
resulting from natural disasters were 75% and
70% respectively.
Statistical data from the World Meteorological
Organization shows that the top ten natural
disasters threatening human beings are tropical
cyclones, earthquakes, floods, thunderstorms,
hurricanes, snowstorms, avalanches, volcanos,
heat waves, landslides (mud-rock flow),
and tidal (tsunami), among which tropical
cyclone is the most common causes of death,
especially in Asia, and tropical cyclone and
storm tide cause the severest disasters. For
example, a strong storm tide in Bangladesh
from 12th to 13th November, 1970 drowned
nearly 300,000 people; a storm tide near
Chittagong of Bangladesh in the night of
April 29th, 1991 caused a tide of over 6m and
2m inundation, as well as 10 million disaster
victims, 140,000 deaths and over 3 billion
58
USD of economic losses. Ten typhoons landed

on Japan in 2004 and caused at least 10 billion
USD of economic loss, over 100 deaths and
thousands of injuries. Strong tropical storm
Bilis landed in Fujian, China on July 14th,
2006, then stepped inland, interacted with
southwest monsoon, and brought continuous
rain to a large area of southern China. There
were totally 31.94 million persons affected
843 people were killed, 208 people missing,
and 3.37 million persons were relocated. The
direct economic loss reached 34.83 billion
RMB.
A storm surge is the abnormal sea level rise
caused by strong atmospheric disturbance
(such as strong winds and sudden change
of atmospheric pressure) near the center of
typhoons or hurricanes. The sudden and
sharp rise of coastal sea water caused by
their combination often results in severe
surge disaster. According to the statistics,
the number of deaths caused by a storm
surge is more than 90 percent of the number
of deaths caused by the total typhoon
disaster. The Chairman of International
Association for Natural Disaster Prevention
and Disaster Reduction, M.I.El-Sabh (1989)
said, storm surges are the first in natural
disasters in the world. It is even more severe
than the earthquake with regard to death and
destruction.
4.2 Tropical Cyclones

Statistics from 1968 to 2003 (Figure 4.1)
shows there are around 90 tropical cyclones
(including tropical storm, strong tropical
storm, cyclonic storm, typhoon, hurricane,
and strong cyclonic storm) each year. The
Northwest Pacific Ocean, Northeast Pacific
Ocean, Southwest Indian Ocean, Atlantic
Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Southwest Pacific
Ocean are areas with frequent tropical
cyclones, with a proportion of 29%, 18%,
15%, 12% and 12% of the total number in
the world, respectively. Few tropical cyclones
exist in the southeastern Indian Ocean and
northern Indian Ocean, where the proportion
of tropical cyclones are 8% and 8.32%. It
can be inferred that tropical cyclones in the
northern hemisphere, comprising about 65%
of the total number in the world, are more
active than that in the southern hemisphere.
4.2.1 Tropical Cyclone

Influence on Global
Economy and Society
Tropical cyclones influence social stability and
even national public security. For example,
Katrina Hurricane that struck southern
USA in 2005 not only caused 125 billion USD
of economic loss and over 1,833 deaths, but
also led to a large number of criminal cases
such as robbery, which seriously damaged
social security in the city. This disaster also
resulted in energy (such as petroleum) price
increases, affected normal lives of residents,
and created negative effects in global
economic development.
According to the statistics on economic loss
from Munich Re NatCatSERVICE, economic
loss caused from tropical cyclones was 4.1
billion USD in 1960s, 11.33 billion USD in
1990s, and 54.68 billion USD in the first five
6%
8%
29%
12%
12%
18%
15%
Northwest Pacific Ocean
Northeast Pacific Ocean
Southwest Indian Ocean
North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea
Southwest Pacific Ocean
Southeast Indian Ocean
North Indian Ocean

Figure 4.1 Proportion distribution of Tropical Cyclone in the world (1968-2003)
(Among which: statistic of southern hemisphere is in the scope of 1968/69-1989/2003, statistic of North Indian Ocean is in the
scope of 1980-2003; Source: State Hurricane Center of the USA)
59
years of the 21st century (Figure 4.2). The

insurance losses caused by tropical cyclones
were 800 million USD, 4.52 billion USD, and
26.42 billion USD in above corresponding
years respectively (Figure 4.3). The economic

(Figure 4.4) and insurance losses (Figure 4.5)
had greatly increased after 1990s, especially in
2004 and 2005.
Economic Loss/Billion USD
300
273.4
250
200
150
113.3
100
50
24.1
4.1
7.3
0.0
0 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2005
Year
Figure 4.2 Economic Loss caused by Tropical Cyclone every ten years in the world (1950-2005)
Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE
Insurance Loss/Billion USD
140
132.1
120
100
80
60
45.2
40
20
0
0.0
0.8
1.7
7.8
1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2005

Year
Figure 4.3 Insurance Loss caused by Tropical Cyclone every ten years in the world (1950-2005)
200
Economic Loss/Billion USD
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Figure 4.4 Economic Loss caused by Tropical Cyclone each year in the world (1950-2005)
60
100
Insurance Loss/Billion USD
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Figure 4.5 Insurance Loss caused by Tropical Cyclone each year in the world (1950-2005)
It can be inferred that tropical cyclones are

increasingly influencing the global economy
and social lives. The influence is not restricted
to the country that suffers the disaster, but
affects neighboring countries as well, and
often becomes a problem with international
implications. The influence of disasters on
social and economic life is especially obvious
in many developing countries. At the UN
Sustainable Development Conference of
Developing Countries on Small Islands held
in Port Louis in January 2005, and World
Relief Conference held in Kobe of Japan in
January 2005, international communities
made commitments to help developing
countries, especially those on small islands to
resist various natural disasters. However, it is
still difficult to reduce the influence of natural
disasters, especially typhoons, on small and
weak national economies.
4.2.2 Analysis of Global

Change Impact on
Tropical Cyclone
In recent years, the extreme weather/climate
events (e.g. El Nino, drought, flood, thunder
storm, hailstorm, high-temperature weather
and sand-dust storm) have increased in
frequency and have been attracting more and
more attention.
International scientific communities and

agencies are not entirely agreed on the
specific effects of global climate change on the
global typhoon activities. Though numerical
simulation studies have indicated that the
number of global tropical cyclone activities
might be reduced by the global warming, it
is indicated that the tropical cyclones might
increase in intensity in the future. According
to the Third Assessment Report on Global
Climate Change issued by World Metrological
Organization and the Inter-governmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under
United Nations Environment Program
(UNEP), as well as the final report of the sixth
WMO International Workshop on Tropical
Cyclones (IWTC) held in San Jose, the worlds
climate has shown a warming trend under
the impact of human activities since 1750 and
this opinion is supported by instrumental
observation data and the phenomena (e.g.
increasing of global average temperature and
sea temperature, the large-scale snow/ice
melting, and the elevation of global average
sea level). Most researchers have reached a
consensus that the rise of global average land
surface temperatures can be attributable to
the increased greenhouse gas concentration,
which could also be the reason for the
warming of most tropical waters. They also
61
recognize that the magnitude of temperature

rise of tropical surface water in the 21st
century is anticipated to be more significant
than that in the 20th century. As indicated
by the observations conducted over the past
several decades, the surface temperature of
tropical waters has already increased by
0.25-0.5. Numerical simulations have
indicated that the intensity of typhoons
would increase with the rise of sea water
surface temperature, but the intensity
of typhoons as derived from numerical
simulation is apparently weaker than that
of actual observations. In other words, the
results of numerical simulation failed to
reproduce the observed intensity increment
of the typhoons. In addition, the observations
and studies have also shown that, with the
exception of the North Atlantic, there is no
obvious positive correlation between global
warming and tropical cyclone, while some
observations, analyses and studies do verify
the potential trend of intensifying global
typhoons in the context of global warming.
According to the statistical results of P. J. Webster
et al.(2005), the percentages of hurricanes/
typhoons above category 4 at the West Pacific,
East Pacific, South Indian Ocean, Southwest
Pacific, North Atlantic and North Indian
Ocean have increased to 41%, 35%, 34%,
28%, 25% and 25% in 1990-2004 from 25%,

25%, 18%, 12%, 20% and 8% in 1975-1989,
respectively, making an increase of 16%,
10%, 16%, 16%, 5% and 17%, respectively.
It can be observed that in the past 30 years,
the trend of increasing intensity is more
obvious at the North Indian Ocean, West
Pacific, South Indian Ocean and Southwest
Pacific. In terms of the total occurrence of
hurricanes/typhoons above category 4, the
total number of hurricanes/typhoons above
category 4 at the West Pacific reached 201
in the past 30 years, representing 45.68%
of the global total, which indicates that the
strong typhoon activities are more active at
the West Pacific (Figure 4.6).
Though uncertainty remains regarding the
significance of the impact of global climate
change on global tropical cyclones, as indicated
by the theoretical and observational studies
as well as by the numerical simulation, the
impact of global warming on the global
tropical cyclone activities was probably
indicated by the recent frequent occurrence
of strong tropical cyclone in China, US,
Japan and other regions. However, this
trend is subject to further confirmation of
meteorologists in various countries. In 2004,
tropical storm Jeanne struck Puerto Rica,
Dominica and Cuba along the Caribbean
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
North
Atlantic
East
Pacifc
West Southwest North

Pacific Pacific Indian
1975-1989
South
Indian
1990-2004
Figure 4.6 Increased percentage of Category 4-5 hurricanes

Source: Webster P. J. et al., Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration and Intensity in a Warming Environment,
Science, 309, 1844 (2005)
62
coast in succession, causing at least 1,128

deaths and 1,251 missing, with the economic
loss of hundreds of million dollars. In 2005,
eight typhoons (including tropical storms and
severe tropical storms) landed on China with
a direct economic loss of 81,470 million RMB
(about 10,183 million USD) and 429 deaths;
four typhoons landed on or affected Vietnam,
bring about an economic loss of over 250
million USD and 103 deaths; two typhoons
landed on Japan, inflicting an economic loss
of nearly 37 million USD and 27 deaths. Seven
hurricanes (including tropical storms and
severe tropical storms) landed on or affected
the US continent, and caused an economic
loss of over 159 billion USD and over 2,002
deaths, among which, the Hurricane Katrina
greatly affected in the southern and eastern
areas of the US and caused at least 1,833
deaths and over 125 billion USD in loss.
4.3 Typhoon Surveillance

and Alert
4.3.1 Typhoon (Hurricane)
Surveillance
Typhoon (hurricane) surveillance techniques
described here mainly involves satellite,
radar remote sensing and ground automatic
obs er vation st at ions. In t he At lantic,
Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, as
well as in the east of North Pacific, hurricane
reconnaissance planes are also routinely
used to acquire data in hurricane areas as
well as in their surroundings. With the help
of these observational tools, we can obtain
the positioning information of typhoons
(hurricanes), as well as its future typhoon
dynamics and precipitation information, so
that the alert information can be released on
an operational basis. In addition, techniques
including Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay

(AMDAR), GPS detection and wind profiler
have also been adopted in typhoon surveillance.
The construction and operation of mobile
meteorological stations have significantly
improved the on-site meteorological observation
and service capacities.
4.3.2 Forecast Techniques

for Typhoon Track,
Intensity, Wind and
Rain
The forecast capability of typhoon (hurricane)
track in various countries has made remarkable
progress, with improvement in numerical
prediction patterns and the development
of integrated prediction techniques. The
overall track prediction errors have shown
a c ont i nu ous ye ar- on - ye ar re du c t i on
(Figures 4.7-4.10). Currently, the overall
subjective error in prediction of typhoon
(hurricane) tracks is approximately 100120 kilometers; the 48-hour track forecast
error is approximately 180-250 kilometers
and the 72-hour track forecast error is
approximately 250-320 kilometers.
Typhoon forecast centers around the world
have been committed to improve their
intensity prediction over the past two decades.
In addition to the use of climate continuity
approaches (e.g. CMAs typhoon intensity
statistical interpretation techniques and
NHCs Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast
model (SHIFOR) and statistic dynamic
models (e.g. NHCs Statistical Hurricane
Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), many
countries have been developing the newgeneration dynamic patterns (e.g. GFDL,
GFS, NOGAPS and UKMET) in order to
improve intensity prediction. Currently, the
typhoon (hurricane) intensity forecast errors
in the research of different countries are
primarily at the same level, with the average
63
700
24-h
48 -h
72 -h
Forecast Error (km)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Year
2001
2003
2005
2007
Figure 4.7 China Meteorological Administrations (CMA) average 24-h, 48-h and 72-h typhoon
track forecast errors (from 1991 to 2008, unit: km)
Source: National Meteorological Center and Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA
900
72 -h
48 - h
24 -h
800
Forecast Error (km)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
Year
1997
2000
2003
2006
Figure 4.8 Japan Meteorological Agencys (JMA) average 24-h, 48-h and 72-h typhoon track forecast errors
(from 1982 to 2007, unit: km)
Source: RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of Japan Meterological Administration
700
Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
600
Forecast Errors (n mi)
700
24-h
48-h
72-h
96-h
120-h
500
600
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
Figure 4.9 US National Hurricane Centers (NHC) annual average hurricane track forecast errors
(from 1970 to 2008, unit: nautical mile)
Source: National Hurricane Center of NWS/NOAA.
64
24-h, 48-h and 72-h intensity forecast errors

at 10, 15 and 25hPa respectively (Figure
4.11 and Table 4.1 ). Taking the example
of typhoon forecasts in 2008 for NHC and
CMA, the NHC 24-h, 48-h and 72-h typhoon
intensity forecast errors were respectively
10.4, 13.6 and 14.6 knots (or 5.3, 7.0 and 7.5
m/s); the CMA 24-h,48-h and 72-h typhoon
intensity forecast errors were 6.2, 8.7 and 8.5
m/s; the JMA 24-h, 48-h and 72-h typhoon
intensity forecast errors were 6.7, 8.5 and 9.5
m/s in 2007, respectively (Figure 4.12).
530
24-h
48-h
72-h
Forecast Error (km)
480
430
380
330
280
230
180
2007-2008
2006-2007
2005-2006
2004-2005
2003-2004
2002-2003
2001-2002
2000-2001
1999-2000
1998-1999
1997-1998
1996-1997
1995-1996
1994-1995
1993-1994
1992-1993
1991-1992
80
1990-1991
130
Year
Figure 4.10 RSMC La Reunion official average 24-h, 48-h and 72-h tropical cyclone
track forecast errors form 1990 through 2008
Source: RSMC La Reunion-Tropical Cyclone Center/Meteo-France
Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones
30
24-h
48-h
72-h
96-h
120-h
Forecast Errors (kt)
25
30
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
0
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
Figure 4.11 US National Hurricane Centers (NHC) annual average hurricane intensity forecast errors
(from 1990 through 2008, unit: knot)
Source: National Hurricane Center of NWS/NOAA.
Table 4.1 Japan Meteorological Agencys average 24-h, 48-h and 72-h typhoon intensity forecast
errors (from 2000 to 2007, unit: hPa)
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
24-h
13.0
10.9
10.8
11.0
11.4
12.8
14.1
13.0
48-h
15.6
15.3
15.3
16.1
17.0
17.1
17.0
72-h
18.6
19.0
18.6
19.9
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
65
10.0
Forecast Error (m/s)
9.0
8.0
NHC
7.0
US National Hurricane
Center
6.0
CMA
5.0
4.0
China Meteorological
Administration
3.0
JMA
Japan Meteorological
Agency
2.0
1.0
0.0
24-h
48-h
72-h
Figure 4.12 Comparison of official typhoon intensity forecast errors (unit: m/s) (NHC in 2008, CMA in 2008, JMA in 2007)
Source: Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center of JMA,
National Hurricane Center of NWS/NOAA.
In respect of wind and rain forecast, there is

currently no objective predicting method.
However, real-time ground analysis and
alert information issuance system based on
ground radars, ground data and Geographical
Information System (GIS) have been built
up in parts of the US severely affected areas
by hurricanes. Together with studies on the
precipitation estimation through adoption of
non-conventional techniques such as satellite,
ground and aircraft radars, as well as studies
on mechanism of precipitation regarding
various micro-physical processes, efforts have
been made to conduct hurricane wind and
rain forecast by using prediction patterns
(Figure 4.13).
Though various nations have made remarkable progress in typhoon surveillance, forecast
and alert over the past two decades, there
are still substantial prediction errors in the
estimation of abnormal tracks and abrupt
increases of intensity. The techniques of
typhoon surveillance, forecast and alert are
far from meeting the accuracy of typhoon
forecast requirements for disaster prevention
and alleviation. Therefore, it is still a critical
task for those nations to improve the overall
level of typhoon sur veillance, forecast
and alert, especially on the combined use
of various observation, remote sensing
techniques and other related techniques,
in order to improve the forecast, alert and
assessment of major typhoon disasters.
Figure 4.13 NHCs real-time wind field analysis based on ground observation data, ground weather radar and GIS
of Tropical Storm Bonnie, Hurricane Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne in 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005
Source: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html
66
4.3.3 Problems and Challenges

of Forecasting
1) Slow progress in intensity forecast
Compared with typhoon track forecast,
typhoon intensity forecast has progressed
very slowly over the past two decades. There
are very few methods available for objective
prediction; the statistical interpretation
techniques are not mature with regards
to forecast accuracy; and the forecast skill
remains at a low level. Many nations mainly
a d opt e mpi r i c a l me t ho ds i n t y pho on
intensity forecast. Therefore, it is a longterm task for nations to improve the typhoon
intensity forecast. There is a need to improve
obser vations and understanding of the
typhoons core structure, so that numerical
patterns can be improved and developed.
2) Wind and rain forecast to be improved
Objective and accurate forecast for typhoon
and rain plays a critical role in effective
prevention and alleviation of typhoons.
Therefore, researches on numerical forecast
techniques must be reinforced; estimates of
quantified typhoon precipitation should be
improved through the use of non-conventional
detection techniques such as satellite, ground
and aircraft radars; real-time ground analysis
and alert information issuance system based on
ground radars, ground data and GIS should be
further improved.
4.3.4 Assessing and Estimating

Techniques for Typhoon
Disaster
Being a major component in the natural
disaster alert, typhoon alert has been
emphasized by the countries frequently
affected by typhoons/hurricanes such as the
US, Japan and China. These countries have

built typhoon alert and assessment systems.
Disaster experts and meteorologist have
conducted some studies on distribution of
wind and rain. However, the researches in
this domain fall behind studies for typhoon
track and intensity. The existing typhoon
disaster assessment and decision systems are
not competitive in terms of promptness and
completeness of disaster data. Assessment of
typhoon disasters is typically conducted long
after the disaster. The disaster information
obtained through advanced technologies
such as satellite remote sensing is not
promptly analyzed and utilized. As a result,
decision makers do not acquire information
concerning the disasters in the affected areas
in time to adopt proper and effective disaster
alleviation measures to reduce injuries and
property damages, since existing disaster
assessment methods remain too simple and
underdeveloped.
4.4 Storm Surge Disaster

Regions impacted by the severe typhoon
stor m su rge i n clu d e t h e c o a st of t h e
Northwest Pacific (the coasts in China,
Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and other
countries), the west coast of the North
Atlantic (east coast of the United States, coasts
of the Caribbean countries), north shore
of the Indian Ocean (coasts of Bangladesh,
India and other countries). Other tropical
storm surges mainly occur in high-latitude
countries, including the coasts of Holland,
Britain, China, the United States and other
countries.
Coastal regions, especially estuary delta
regions are extremely sensitive and fragile
67
to the storm surge. It is generally believed

t hat t he co ast a l reg ions b elow 5m in
elevation are mostly in danger of sea-level
rise and storm surge disaster. In China,
there are 143,900 km2 of low lying land in
coastal areas. The population is over 70
million which is about 27 percent of the
total population in vulnerable regions of
the world. There are extreme vulnerable
regions with the height less than 4m in
Liaohe Plain, Vast North China Plain,
Vast East China Plain and the Pearl River
Delta plain with an area of 92,800 km2. The
residential population in these areas is about
65 million. They have always been affected
severely by typhoons and storm surges. The
surge prevention situation is very acute.
Developing scientific research on disaster
prevention and reduction of storm surges
and establishing effective forecasting and
early warning service play is extremely
important in surge prevention and disaster
reduction. The forecasting and early warning
system of storm surges has been established
in developed countries and some developing
countries. But some developing countries are
still lagging behind. There are few or even
no tide stations in some areas with frequent
storm surges. The information-sharing
mechanism of the existing tide station
and high-precision numerical prediction
model system have not been established.
Therefore, the continuous improvement
of coastal storm surge monitoring system,
development of the assessment, forecasting
and early warning techniques, as well as
establishment of the disaster prevention
emergency system will be very important for
guaranteeing the safety of peoples lives and
properties along the coasts.
68
4.5 Suggestions
4.5.1 Recommendations
for Typhoon Disaster
Mitigation
Some recommendations and measures to
mitigate typhoon or hurricane disasters are
to:
1) Further improve the construction of
monitoring system of typhoon and
disaster
The typhoon monitoring system incorporating the meteorological satellite, Doppler
weather radar, aircraft detection, GPS, and
other remote sensing techniques need to
be established. The rapid and reliable data
transmission needs to be realized.
The related research and technology should
be strengthened, which mainly include:
Research on inversion technology for data
acquired from meteorological satellite and
Doppler weather radar;
R e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t o f k e y
monitoring technologies and methods
for tracking typhoon, assessing typhoon
intensity and prediction of typhoon trends,
and
Research on communication transmission
and processing technology for typhoon
disaster.
2) Further strengthen the research on
typhoon mechanism and theory
The theoretical research and operational
forecasting still face many difficulties and
challenges, and still lack a very effective

method, such as the forecast of the sudden
change of moving direction and moving
speed, sudden change of structure and
intensity, and sudden increase of landing
typhoons and storms. Taking into account
t he following asp ec ts, the theoretical
research of typhoon (hurricanes) needs to be
strengthened in the future;
The three-dimensional str ucture in
typhoon. The detailed medium and smallscale structural features of typhoon should
be revealed in the future, including the
characteristics of the typhoon boundary layer,
which will be very helpful for improving the
typhoon forecasting capability;
The sudden change mechanism of path and
intensity of typhoon. Relatively speaking, the
forecasting of the intensity change of typhoon
is more difficult than that of the path. The
intensity change often leads to sudden
change of the path. There is urgent need to
strengthen these researches in the future;
The interaction exists between different
scale systems and different zonal circulation
on typhoon. Its physical process and
mechanism needs to be further explored.
3) Further strengthen the research and
development efforts for the early warning
technology
The research on physical mechanism of

sudden strengthening of typhoon near the
coast and the sudden change of typhoon
path, and its forecasting methods, and
The research on tracking typhoon path and
intensity and integrated forecasting system.
4) Further improve the establishment of a
new generation of typhoon forecasting
system
Establishment of typhoon integrated forecasting
platform should include the following main
functions:
The database retrieval system of typhoon
parameters and its circumstantial field;
The best path of typhoon is obtained
automatically according to the center position
and intensity of typhoon determined by the
satellite and Dvorak technology, aircraft,
dropsonde and other detection techniques;
Make path forecast; by inputting the best
fitted path into the system, the typhoon
path forecast output is obtained from the
numerical model and integrated forecasting
system. Through the combination of the
forecasters experience and model output, the
final judgment of path forecast is decided;
The development and improvement of

methods for objective typhoon forecasting;
Intensity forecast; According to the

numerical model and the typhoon intensity
forecast product output from the relevant
statistical model, investigate the factors
affecting the typhoon intensity, and then
the final intensity forecast is obtained, and
The research and development of numerical

methods for typhoon prediction;
Typhoon warning specification and warning

effect inspection.
The core research and development includes

the following key technologies:
69
5) Strengthen the research on the typhoon

disaster risk diagnosis and forecast
According to different factors causing disasters,
different emergency counter-measures are taken
so as to provide scientific basis for making
decision to prevent typhoon and reduce
disaster.
As for the research of typhoon disaster risk
diagnosis and forecast methods, the following
aspects should be focused on:
The research on the mechanism of typhoon
disaster;
Analysis of population density, economic
development level, disaster prevention and
relief capability in disaster areas;
Establishment of disaster database;
Research on disaster loss assessment;
Comprehensive assessment of typhoon
disasters;
Examination of prediction accuracy, and
Measures for disaster prevention.
6) Strengthen the international exchange
and cooperation for monitoring and early
warning technology for typhoon
In view of the universality of the global human
and socio-economic influence by typhoon, the
international exchange and sharing of realtime monitoring and forecasting typhoon
information and typhoon-related disasters
should be strengthened. The international
exchange and cooperation of tropical cyclone
monitoring and forecasting technology
and management experience related to
70
disaster prevention and reduction needs to

be developed, which undoubtedly play an
important role in improving the quality of
typhoon forecasting and disasters prevention
and reduction.
7) Further strengthening the popularization
of science and technology for defending
typhoon
T h e k n ow l e d g e for t y p h o on d i s a s t e r
prevention and the active participation
consciousness in the public is the important
part for defense and precaution against
typhoon. The lack of typhoon disaster
prevention knowledge and weak awareness
of active participation are still the important
causes restricting effective defense and
precaution against typhoon. We must further
strengthen the popularization of science and
technology of defending typhoon, strengthen
the awareness of disaster prevention and
reduction in the public in coastal areas and
improve the efficiency of usage of early warning
information. Therefore the people in coastal
areas can understand the destructive force of
typhoon and know how to avoid attacks from
typhoon with the surrounding facilities.
Cuba has achieved great success in protecting
its people against Caribbean hurricanes through
improving public education, awareness and
better forecasts. Weather specialists issue
the latest information every hour from the
Meteorological Institute on National TV and
radio. People follow such information with
great interest and understanding. It increases
the publics sense of danger without panic,
thus induces everyone to take protective
measures as oriented by the Cuban Civil
Defense.
4.5.2 Problems in Storm Surge

Disaster and Suggestions
1. Strengthen the Monitoring and
Information Sharing Mechanism
Accurate and timely data of surge observation
are the required information for the early
warning of storm surge. The tide station
network has been established in the coastal
area, estuary in most developed and developing
countries, but a more workable global tide
gauge information-sharing mechanism has
not been established. The coastal tide station
network has not been established in some
developing countries. There are fewer or
even no tide gauge stations in some areas
with frequent storm surges, where people
can not implement effective monitoring
of storm surges. The improvement of the
ability for storm surge monitoring is in
urgent need. All countries, especially some
developing countries, as they continue to
improve the construction of their threedimensional marine environment monitoring
network, need to continuously strengthen
the monitoring ability on measurements of
storm surges and ocean waves (especially the
coastal waves), increase the dropping points
of small floating buoy for measuring waves on
the coast to meet the requirements of forecast
and the demand of disaster prevention and
reduction.
In addition, the ground investigation after
strong storm surge is very important for the
establishment of the storm surge disaster
mechanism, forecasting and early warning,
disaster assessment and the emergency
system.
In Cuba, a single image of the forecasted
storm surge area shown by meteorologists
on TV saved many lives. The town at Cajio
Beach, in the southern Coast of Western
Cuba was forecasted to have a 4 meter height

storm surge when Hurricane Charley landed
at mid-night on August 12, 2004. In the early
morning, meteorologists issued the warning
about this threat on TV. Every resident in
Cajio Beach was convinced that it was a real
danger. Evacuation began at 9 am and all the
1500 residents, mostly fishermen, had been
evacuated to a safe inland by noon. Cajio
Beach was completely destroyed. However,
there was not a single death.
2. Develop the Research on Storm Surge
Forecasting and Prediction
Many countries are making their efforts
to find methods to reduce the storm surge
disaster. There is no doubt that the accurate
forecast of the storm surge is the prerequisite
and guarantee of scientific disaster prevention
and reduction. The forecast of storm surge
disaster mainly has two aspects: the forecast
of the water level of storm surge, and the
forecast of storm surge floodplain. The
current forecasting technology is at the
numerical prediction stage with empirical
statistical forecasting method. Many countries
have put forward the numerical prediction
models applicable to different regions, but it
still cannot meet the demand for prevention
and reduction of the storm surge disaster
(e.g. Figures 4.14, 4.15). Therefore, further
research on the mechanism of storm surges
and continuous improvement of numerical
prediction models are necessary.
(1) Research on the interaction among storm
surge-astronomical tide-offshore waves-flood.
(2) Development of high-resolution numerical
prediction model for storm surge floodplain.
(3) Research on ensemble forecast of typhoon
storm surge (probability forecast).
71
(4) Research on the four-dimensional

assimilation numerical model of storm surge.
At present, storm surges risk maps have
not been made in most of the countries
threatened by the storm surge. Therefore, it
is suggested that GIS, remote sensing (Lidar),
high-resolution floodplain numerical model,

and other advanced techniques are used to
produce flood maps and risk maps in highrisk areas of storm surge, which will be used
in the storm surge emergency evacuation and
disaster prevention.
Figure 4.14 Storm surge probability forecast of NOAA

(Storm surge is higher than 4-feet)
The typhoon took place at 8:00am, Sept.17
Yingkou
Huludao
40
39 Tanggu
38
37
36
35
Dandong
Dadong
Laohutan
Longkou Zhifudao
Chengshantou
Yangjiaogou
Xiaomaidao
Latitude
90
80
70
Shijiusuo
Lianyungang
60
34
33
Gaoqiao
Luchaogang
Zhapu
Zhenhai
Shenjiamen
30
29
28
27
26
25
50
Lsi
32
31
Quit
100
Shipu
Jiantiao
Haimen
Kanmen
Wenzhou
Ruian
Aojiang
Sansha
40
30
20
Meihua
10
Pingtan
Chongwu
Xiamen
118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128
Dongshan
Longtitude
Figure 4.15 The storm surge probability forecast of State Oceanic Administration, China
(Storm surge is higher than 1 m)
72
Flood and Drought Induced

Disasters
5.1 Introduction
Flood and drought induced disasters can
cause devastating consequences on human
Volcano
0.1%
Wild Fire
0.1%
society. According to Asian Disaster Reduction

Center, half of the population worldwide
that suffered natural disasters was affected
by flood and one third by drought over the
period of 1975 to 2005 (Figure 5.1).
Wind Storm
11.9%
Drought
33.1%
Slide
0.1%
Earthquake
1.6%
Flood
50.8%
Famine(natural)
0.8%
Epidemic
0.4%
Extreme Temperature
1.1%
Figure 5.1 Percentage of worldwide population affected by types of disaster in 1975-2005

Source: CRED-EMDAT, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, 2005
Since late 1990s, flood and drought induced

disasters have o ccurred f requently as
illustrated in Figure 5.2. World Disaster
Report, published by International Federation

of Red Cross and the Red Crescent Societies,
showed that population affected by flood and
Flood-related Disasters
Drought
Non Water-related Disasters
Figure 5.2 Occurrence of global natural disasters from 1986 to 2006
73
drought has reached historical high in the

period of 1998 to 2002 (Figure 5.3).
The report also pointed out that over the
past 20 years, 71.1% of the deaths caused
by disasters in the world occurred in Asia,
11.7% in Africa, 9.4% in America, 7.5% in
Europe and 0.3% in Oceania. Furthermore,
death resulting from flood-related disasters,
million
160
140
120
including flood, landslides, storm-surges

and huge waves, accounted for 83.7%, 2.7%,
12.4%, 0.7% and 0.5% of the total fatalities in
Asia, Africa, America, Europe and Oceania,
respectively (Figure 5.4). The statistics
also indicated that developing countries
experienced more casualties once they were
affected by natural disasters. Although a
variety of water-control engineering projects
Annual average of every 5 years

Earthquake
Drought/Famine
Flood
Storm
Avalanche/Landslide
Volcano
Others
100
80
60
40
20
0
1973-1977
1978-1982
1983-1987
Year
1988-1992
1993-1997
1998-2002
Figure 5.3 Number of people affected by natural disasters around the world
Source: World Disasters Report, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Figure 5.4 Regional distributions of casualties caused by disasters around the world
74
were built in the 20th century, rising trend of

property loss in terms of absolute value due
to flood is not changed even in the developed
countries.
The increasing losses from flood and drought
disasters in both developed and developing
countries have suggested to us that disaster
mitigation is not a simple matter of economic
development but also a more complex issue in
which sciences and technologies can play an
important role.
In the field of flood and drought management,
a consensus has been reached so that all
measures implemented should achieve goals
of harmonious co-existence between mankind
and nature and sustainable development
for society, economy and environment. The
mainstream water-related management
strategy in the new century has shifted from
single purpose engineering measures to
comprehensive management for flood and
drought prevention.
In the early 20th century, flood prevention in
the United States was primarily focused on
the construction of flood-control engineering
projects built by the Army Corps of Engineers.
As a result of the rapid economic growth in
the 1940s to 1950s and the baby boom from
mid-1940s to early 1960s, floodplains were
increasingly used for the settlement, industry
and commerce. The direct consequence was
that the losses due to floods escalated even
under the protection of flood-control systems.
Faced with this situation, the United States
federal government adopted a comprehensive
strategy which utilized both engineering
and non-engineering measures. Through

national floodplain management, government
gradually enforced a better land use practice
and enhanced flood-resistance standards for
the buildings within the flood-prone areas. In
addition, forecast and early warning of flash
floods, displacement and rescue system of
residents affected by floods were established
in the United States. Thirty years after the
national floodplain management was first
carried out, the vulnerability of the buildings
has been greatly reduced and consequently
the property losses are lower in the floodplain
areas when encountering flash floods.
It is inevitable that human society would
suffer heavy losses when encountering
severe flash flood and this is true even in
the developed countries like the United
States. Figures 5.5 and 5.6 show the direct
economic losses caused by flood in terms of
US dollars and its relative percentage over
the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the
United States. In 1937, heavy flood caused
direct losses of 5 billion US dollars and
corresponding relative percentage of 0.48%.
In 1993, although the direct loss caused by
the Mississippi River Flood was very high,
with over 16 billion US dollars, its relative
percentage was 0.26%, lower than that of the
1937 flood. It is worth noting that Hurricane
Katrina, with a category of five, attacked the
United States in 2005. The hurricane resulted
in property losses of 25 billion US dollars
and claimed 1,029 lives. These facts show us
that once a modern metropolis is invaded by
flood, the property losses may go beyond that
of river basin flood.
75
Year
Figure 5.5 Property losses caused by flood in the United States (1903 to 1996)
Year
Figure 5.6 Flood damages in the United States from 1903 to 1996
Taking Japan as another example, only

10% of its land is threatened by flood, but
on these flood-threatened areas, there are
about 50% of its population and 75% of its
assets. Rivers in these areas are short and
characterized with sudden rise in river level
after torrential rainstorms. From 1940s to
1950s, many flood-control projects were
halted because of war and early post-war
impact on domestic issues, and the river
embankments were in poor condition. Since
76
1960s, Japan has implemented nine floodcontrol projects. The budget for flood-control
has increased thanks to the rapid economic
development and this has greatly improved
the situation for flood-control. To address
new issues of flood and drought control in the
process of urbanization, a series of integrated
flood-control strategies in river basins were
implemented, which effectively constrained
the rising trend of property losses. However,
over the past ten years, the losses caused by
flood disasters rose again, mainly because

urban centers have become increasingly
vulnerable to flood disasters (Figure 5.7).
50,000
47,500
45,000
42,500
40,000
37,500
35,000
32,500
30,000
27,500
25,000
22,500
20,000
17,500
15,000
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
47,073
Intensity of private property
damage by flood**
Flood damage to private property*
35.6
35
30
Inundated area
(in 1,000 hectares)
230
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
25
20
15
10
Total inundated area

3.5
Area of inundated residential and other property
1970
1975
1980
1985
Year
0.7
1990
1995
2001
Total damage (in billion)
Flood damage density:damage cost/hectare

(in1,000:at 1990 prices)
Since 1950, China has constructed many

water-control systems. However, areas
affected by flood and drought have not
significantly decreased (Figure 5.8). This may
correlate with climatic conditions because
the total precipitation over the country was

above normal level during the periods of
1950s-1960s and the 1990s. After entering the
new century, areas affected by drought have
significantly increased. Additional reasons
could be attributed to population growth,
urban expansion, increasing pressure on
securing food supplies, lakes and wetlands
drained for farmland.
5
0
* Private property damage by flood is the sum of direct

damage plus loss due to interruption of business
** Density of private property damage by flood is
calculated by dividing the private property damage by
the area of inundated residential area.
Figure 5.7 Flood damage in Japan from 1970 to 2001

30,000
Affected areas (1000 hc)
25,000
Flood
Drought
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
Figure 5.8 Areas affected by flood and drought disasters in China from 1950 to 2006
77
It is now widely accepted that human society

must bear a certain degree of flood risk and
learn how to co-exist with flood. Excessively
high standards for flood-control projects
would need tremendous resources but still
not necessarily be able to fully control all flash
floods.
5.2 Scientific Issues

Scientific issues in the field of flood and
drought disaster mitigation cover three
subjects: disaster theory, disaster prevention,

and technology for disaster mitigation.
Disaster theory seeks understanding on how
a hazardous event could lead to disastrous
consequences. These theories are mainly
dependent on fundamental scientific issues
and are also related to the applied sciences,
as well as technological support. The study
of disaster prevention should not only
emphasize applied sciences but also synergize
strategies. The development of technology
for disaster mitigation relies on advances not
only in fundamental and applied sciences, but
also in related advanced technologies (Figure
5.9).
Figure 5.9 The disciplinary system in flood and drought research
Research on flood and drought disaster

theory includes the spatial and temporal
distributions of flood and drought hazards,
mechanisms of disasters, potential secondary
disasters, classification, assessment and risk
characteristics. The discipline of disaster
prevention includes disaster mitigation
system, management mode and operation
mechanism which are compatible with
societal and economic developments.
countries with the emphasis on sustainability,

t h e c on c e p t of i nt e g r at e d w at e r s h e d
management has been proposed on the
basis for resolving the increasingly complex
water related issues. On the other hand, in
developing countries, with the increasing
water crises resulting from rapid social and
economic development, managing instead of
fighting against the flood should be applied in
order to utilize flood as resource.
5.2.1 Risk Management on

Flood and Drought
The role of disaster management has been

stressed by many countries in refining the
regulations in water-resources management
at the turn of the 21st century. In developed
78
With global climate change and the intensity

of human activities, the occurrence of extreme
floods and droughts has become more frequent.
These events intensify the adverse impact
on social and economic development. In
order to strengthen the emergency response

management and improve the ability to respond
promptly to flood and drought disasters, a
series of tasks have been proposed for the
advancement of science and technology
involved. These tasks are as follows:
Pre-disaster: establish a level of emergency
response system.
Criteria for emergency response plans need
to be established and developed for different
levels of application. These plans need to be
designed according to local conditions. In the
meantime, it is necessary to let all levels of
government agencies and general public be
aware of the risk of disasters.
Disaster: develop a monitoring system and
enhance ability for detecting precursor
of disaster and assure timely execution of
responses.
Post-disaster: establish an advanced method
of assessment for disaster situation, and provide
the scientific and technological support for
decision-making and useful information for
reconstruction in disaster area.
5.2.3 New Challenges from

Rapid Urbanization
Rapid urbanization was one of the most
notable features in the economic and social
development of the 20th century; the trend
is likely to continue into the 21st century.
Urban development drastically changes land
cover and land use patterns, which breaks the
fragile balance of water demands amongst
different areas, and also between humans and
nature. Thus urbanization not only increases
the urban population and wealth, but also
raises the probability of flood and drought
through shortage of water resources and
deteriorating aquatic environments.
In the process of rapid urbanization, there

appear several new characteristics and
challenges. For example:
Within metropolitan areas the temperature
and dust in the air are much higher than
the surrounding areas, resulting in the
so-called urban heat island effect and rain
island effect, which induce more frequent
rainstorms of high intensity.
Incompatible drainage capacities result
from incorporating outlying areas into the
city with existing limited drainage facilities,
which now have to carry much higher
storm drainage loadings.
Over-drafting groundwater causes land
subsidence which increases the risk of
water-logging from heavy rain storms.
In order to meet the demand for water
supply, some reservoirs raise the flood
protection level thus reducing the effective
storage volume for flood control. The
downstream communities have to take
the higher risk of flood when releasing the
reservoir water.
Increased losses under the same level of
flood inundation in urban area due to
increased population density and economic
activity.
Urban water supply system could be
paralyzed by water shortage as a result of
drought or a sudden pollution event.
A l l t h e s e e x ampl e s d e m onst r ate t h at
the disaster bearing capacities in urban
environments become more vulnerable when
facing torrential rainstorms and flooding
unless the investment in flood control
projects and management increases at the
same rate as urbanization.
79
5.2.4 Monitoring and Management of Hydraulic

Engineering System
Hu m a n s h a v e b u i l t m a n y h y d r a u l i c
e ng i ne e r i ng f a c i l it i e s w h i ch e n hanc e
our mitigation efforts against floods and
droughts. However, some engineering
constructions were formed in the past, with
various constraints in technology, economy,
visions, and management; the traditional
hydraulic engineering, therefore, suffers from
dilapidated structures and potential threats to
safety. Flooding beyond the design standard
forces the hydraulic engineering into various
types of dangerous situations. Additionally,
the hydraulic engineering facilities can
be easily targeted in the regional wars or
be threatened by international terrorism.
The safety of the hydraulic engineering
facilities cannot be guaranteed without
proper maintenance and management, and
the consequences will not only add adverse
impact to the overall efficiency of the water
conservancy system, but also impose serious
potential threats to the people and facilities
in the regions supposedly protected by the
projects.
In the aspects of risk in levee breach and
emergency responses, several developed
countries have made progresses regarding levee
safety assessment, monitoring techniques, dambreak, and developed the corresponding
contingency plans. One example is a special
study on the development of emergency
rescue actions by means of dam-break flood
analysis, which is based upon a case study of
the Finnish Environment Institute utilizing
the Kyrsksjrvi dam 1 supported by the
European Community Fund (ECF). By the
1. Development of Rescue Actions Based on Dam-Break
Flood Analysis, Finnish Environment Institute, June, 2001
80
end of March 2001, a general report with 25

appendixes was presented, including proposals
to amend Finlands dam safety regulations. In
the United States, dam safety regulation was
firstly developed in California as early as 1929
after the crash of San Fernando Francis Dam.
Other states in the whole nation rushed to set
dam safety laws with subsequent collapses of
some other dams. In Australias Dam Safety
Code 2 , which was released in December
2000, dam safety operation and management,
dam monitoring and emergency plans were
included.
Most of the traditional monitoring techniques
and data analysis need manual operation,
and are thus slow and prone to mistakes.
On the other hand, advanced technologies
have advantages of promptly collecting,
transmitting, processing real-time data, and
have the ability to achieve high degree of
accuracy for the much needed data. By using
those new technologies, timely sharing of
data is much easier. With the advancement
in areas of earth observation, information
communication technology and computer
science, more advanced equipments for dam
safety can be expected. Thus it in turn offers
stronger scientific and technical supports for
the safety of hydraulic engineering and flood
control management. Several contemporary
techniques are described as follows:
Surveillance Robot
A surveillance robot is composed of an electric
motor, a controlling program and TPS system
that integrate laser, as well as communication
and CCT techniques. It combines and
coordinates techniques on target identification,
auto-focusing, automated angle and distance
measuring, auto-tracing and auto-recording.
2. Dam Safety Code, Australian Capital Territory, December,
2000.
Therefore, surveillance robots could be

used to find and target objects precisely
and automatically, complete a single point
observation in one second, and repeatedly
perform observation for hundreds of targets.
GPS
GPS technology features with high precision,
high speed, automation, and all-weather
operations. With the progress of both
hardware and software for data accessing
and processing of the receiver, GPS position
technology has been applied to a wide range
of areas such as geodetics, crustal deformation
monitoring, precision engineering measurements, etc. However, the technology is so
complicated and costly that applications to
dam safety are currently limited.
Multi-antenna GPS technology
GPS monitoring technology has advantages
over traditional surveying method. The
GPS technology can reach a high degree of
automation, greatly reduce dependency on
external environment conditions, and derives
three-dimensional coordinates quickly.
Nevertheless, GPS technology does have
some weaknesses in practical applications,
the excessive cost of the system for instance.
The high price of GPS receiver has greatly
restricted its application in the area of dam
safety monitoring.
Automated dam safety monitoring
technology
Equipment with automated dam safety
monitoring is the key element for obtaining
reliable information about dam safety. A
sensor is required to work under conditions
of high humidity, temperature variation,
rain, wind, snow and intense electromagnetic
interference, and the sensor must be stable
and reliable for a long time. In recent

years, with the advancement in areas of
microelectronics, sensor, automated control,
communication technology and computer
science, significant progress in automated
dam safety monitoring equipment have
been made. The data acquisition device is
gradually moving towards high-reliability,
intelligence, modularization, integration and
less power-consuming. There are several new
technologies involved:
Application of computer network technology
In dam safety monitoring, large amounts of
data have to be processed and analyzed, and
these data need to be distributed to multiusers. Computer network technology is
applied to meet several considerations in data
and information sharing.
Communication technology
Automation in dam safety monitoring
needs facilities for network and remote
communication. Communication technology
enables responsible department at all levels
to access data and information efficiently
and make the on-line management decisions
for the safety of the dam from the observed
data. Development in communication
technology makes real-time data transmission
of data more efficient and accurate. With
development in network and electronic
technologies, data acquisition, transmission,
storage and management, it is possible to
share data between offices in the dam safety
operation system, and with other public
service departments.
5.2.5 Scientific View for

Future Flood Risk
Motivated by the dramatic development
of our society, it has become common in
81
many scientific and engineering disciplines

to conduct forecasting 10 to 100 years
ahead of time. Think tanks use hypothetic
scenario analysis to capture future trends and
transformations and transfer the potential
s o cietal and economic needs into the
driving force of technological research and
development, to meet the challenges to ensure
the current strategic decisions work effectively
in the future. At present, the conclusions
from forecasting analysis have already had
significant and far-reaching influences on
policy formulation, budgeting and scientific
research plans in some developed countries.
natural patterns but also match the regional

economic and societal development. In the
establishment of flood and drought mitigation
strategies, we need to promote research on
inter-disciplinary and system integration,
to incorporate related sciences in the
development of flood and drought disaster
mitigation, and provide scientific support and
theoretical foundations for flood and drought
mitigation management.
5.3.2 Research on Risk

Management
5.3.1 Disciplines Construction
Experience has proven that local disaster reduction

mode is neither feasible nor reasonable when
facing the overall consideration. The basic
goal for strengthening the risk management
in flood and drought disaster is to seek
a more comprehensive water-regulation
mode that can prove to provide long-term
benefits. Such a mode can help to define how
to reach harmonious coexistence among
humans, nature and flood. At the same time,
comprehensive disaster relief measures should
be activated to reduce the losses. However,
this model may not be easily accepted by
people from different regions because it is not
possible to fully execute such a model in any
specific region. Hence it is necessary to obtain
support from the perspectives of technology,
financial resource, administration and law.
Flood and drought disaster mitigation in

the 21st century requires not only in-depth
and comprehensive disciplines in natural
science, but also the inter-disciplinar y
research and application between natural
sciences and social sciences, which include
Law, Economics, Sociology, Management,
and Psychology. Also, as explained earlier,
mitigation strategies need to adapt to local
situations; they should not only follow
Obviously, future water-regulation modes are

not limited to keep the non-engineering method
as the necessary supplement for engineering
measures, nor should the engineering
measures be replaced by non-engineering
methods, but it is necessary to determine how
to combine engineering and non-engineering
measures efficiently, which means to promote
an engineering system that needs proper
standards and reasonable plan.
From 2002 to 2004, a forward-looking research

project entitled Future Flooding and Coastal
Erosion Control was conducted in the
United Kingdom (UK). This project, based
on climate change and social economic
development in the UK, carried out scenario
analysis on the flooding and coastal erosion
risk that the UK might be facing within the
next 30-100 years, and provided scientific
results to support long-term planning for the
government agencies.
5.3 Suggestions
82

Management
With the influence of global climate change
and intensif ie d human ac t ivit ies, t he
probability of occurrence of severe flood and
drought events in the future increases. At
the same time, the ability of modern society
when facing the disasters caused by severe
flood and drought is weak and the entire
society becomes more vulnerable. Therefore,
the abilities of mitigating risk from flood and
drought disasters should be strengthened. We
also need to improve the emergency response
capability and societys abilities.
More research should be conducted to enhance
the application of advanced technologies in
emergency responses. Examples are: applying
remote sensing and telecommunication
technologies for monitoring the signals from
disaster prior to an event and their transformation;
obtaining disaster information for emergency
resp ons e and command; e s t a b l i s h i n g
surveillance satellite for severe and sudden
flood and drought disasters; developing landsurface monitoring network for typhoons,
torrential storms, landslides and mudflow;
perfecting hydrologic stream flow gauging
and radar network; improving the accuracy in
data collection and speed as well as accuracy
in information process, and the reliability
of the response system; setting up index
system and judging standards for dividing
emergency response levels; developing
emergency response coordination command
and decision-making support system and key
technologies in the information management
platforms for emergency response in flood
fighting and drought relief; developing
emergency rescue management systems and
simulation technologies for the emergency
response; exploiting technologies and
instruments for emergency rescue for flood/
drought disasters, etc.
5.3.4 Countermeasures for

Urbanization Induced
Problems
Overall, urbanization is inevitable for the
development of modern society. It is a
challenging task to ensure urban safety
by flood prevention, and to ensure water
supplies. Since urbanization results from
peoples needs to survive and develop, the
balance between people and nature would
be disturbed in the process of urbanization.
As ne w conf lic ts b etween p eople and
environment become more complicated, flood
control and drought mitigation measures will
be increasingly difficult to execute effectively.
5.3.5 Disaster Prevention and

Security System
In modern society, engineering measures are the
basic means to moderate the balance between
human and nature in different regions. And a
secure and reliable engineering system of Flood
Control and Drought Resistance is the basis and
guarantee for facilitating the harmony between
human and nature.
For this reason, it is necessary to develop
technologies in the vulnerability detection,
security evaluation, danger removing,
reinforcing and disaster resistance and
emergency response. The collaboration should
be improved for the disaster prevention
engineering project system. Research and
development should be reinforced for special
protection facilities and intelligent detection
instruments. For ladder reservoirs and dams
on the river, centralized supervision should
be adopted through the construction of
expert systems for comprehensive data
collection, transmission and analysis, with
the aim of a unified administration for
reservoirs and dams, automatic control and
the optimization of flood prevention and
83
resources distribution. Research should be

strengthened for monitoring instruments
for project security. New generation of
disaster monitoring instruments should
be developed. The collected data from the
dam could be centrally processed by using
wireless transmission technologies. This
can be beneficial for the portrayal of three
dimensional visualization configuration and
state of the dam, as well as the provision of
security evaluations for the dam.
5.3.6 Foresight for the Future

Risks
Current developments for Flood Control
and Drought Resistance have turned from
single engineering construction to security
guarantee system. A pattern has been formed
by combining engineering measures with
non-engineering measures. Any big project
needs a relative long period for planning,
designing, and constructing. As a result, in
order to guarantee the feasibility of Flood
Control and Drought Resistance plans, which
depends on previous experiences, we should
build up the plan on the basis of long range
scientific prediction of flood/drought.
The variations of flood and drought risk in
the future are closely related to many factors
including global climate warming, the socioeconomic development, urbanization, land
use/cover change and the internationalization
of markets. Accordingly, in order to improve
our prediction ability for the risk variations
of flood and drought disasters in the next
30-50 years, it is strongly recommended
to take several steps. First of all, we should
greatly strengthen our prediction abilities
for the severe events of flood and drought
disasters under the background of climate
change. Secondly, it is advisable to explore
the dynamic response relationships among
factors of disaster prone environment,
84
hazard, disaster affected body, disaster

prevention capability, and the mechanism
of disaster generation. Moreover, it is wise
to make a comprehensive scenario analysis
technological system by developing large scale
hydrological and hydromechanics models.
5.4 Summary
With climate change, extreme climate patterns
would occur more frequently in the future;
with rapid urbanization, population and asset
growth in areas with high flood/drought
disaster, risk also has increased. Therefore,
our modern society becomes more vulnerable
when facing severe natural hazards and losses
from flood and drought disasters.
Science and technology are needed in disaster
management in order to deal with challenges
from increased risks of flood and drought
disaster in the 21st century and to perfect the
security assurance system for flood control
and drought resistance that is compatible with
socio-economic development. As countries
around the world have different physical and
geographical conditions and socio-economic
development situations, there are significant
differences in the risk characteristics of flood
and drought disasters as well as in the impact
on human society and ecological community.
As a result, each country or region should
adjust measures to local conditions when
selecting water regulation strategies, which
should not only obey the evolution order
of nature, but also follow the rules of socioeconomic development. The results will lead
to harmonious co-existence between human
and nature, and provide support to and
assurance for sustainable development.
Some issues that can have significant and
long-lasting impact are worthy of further

research in flood and drought disaster
management as we move into the 21st
century. Examples are as follows:
How to properly select the risk management mode for flood-control that can fit
given local conditions? How to determine
the balance between nature and human
and among people of different regions?
Under the premises that some risks have
to be endured, how can we transform
the negative relationships into beneficial
interactions between human and nature?
How to exercise non-engineering measures
including laws, economics, administrations,
educations, sciences and technologies
to enhance the integrity and long-term
benefits of engineering flood control
projects? How to determine sensible

guidance in regulating our water-control
activities, to increase our abilities in
adapting to and enduring flood risks, to
promote the flood-as-resources concept
and improve technologies to achieve that
goal, and to avoid intensifying disaster risks
from our activities.
How can we perfect the emergency response
management system and operations for
severe flood and drought disasters? Under
the premise that disaster is inevitable, how
can we reduce fatalities and property losses
caused by sudden severe disasters? How
can we mitigate adverse effects of flood
and drought disasters. And how to restore
rapidly the normal socio-economic order?
85
Earth Observation for Natural

Disaster Mitigation
6.1 Earth Observation

Technology
Advanced Earth Observation technology,
research and development can contribute
significantly to natural disaster mitigation
and relief efforts after natural disasters occur.
Recently, the rapid provision of high-quality
radar and optical satellite imagery has enabled
quick and detailed evaluation of disaster
areas. This was illustrated in the recent
magnitude 8 earthquake which hit Sichuan
Province in China on May 12th, 2008, leaving
about five million people homeless, killing
over 69,197 and injuring more than 374,176.
18,222 people are still missing. This chapter
provides examples of applying optical and
radar systems for natural disaster mitigation.
This report concentrates only on the major
geological (earthquakes and landslides) and
meteorological (floods, droughts hurricane/
typhoons and storm surges) disasters. Many
materials in this report were generated from
the reports of CEOS (Committee on Earth
Observation Satellites), IGOS (International
Geosphere Observing System) and a report
of NASA JPL.
Earth Observation has the ability of acquiring
characteristics of objects without contacting
them. Based on the principle that objects have
different responses to the electromagnetic
waves, it collects data on the ground, detects
86
the nature of surface objects, and identifies

various types of ground objects by sensors
boarded on different platforms far away
from the ground (tower, balloon, aircraft,
rocket, man-made earth satellite, spacecraft,
space shuttle, etc.). Remote sensing is the
systematic integration of technologies
for detecting and monitoring the Earths
resources and environment, including the
process of detection of electromagnetic
wave (radiation and scattering) of the earth
surface, information transmission, processing
an d i nt e r pre t at i on . A f t e r d e c a d e s of
development, remote sensing technology has
been widely used in fields such as resources,
environment, hydrolog y, meteorolog y,
geology, city, agriculture, forestry, surveying
and mapping, and disaster analysis.
At pres ent, t he most common ly us e d
remote sensing data acquisition platforms
are satellites and aircraft. When the United
States launched the first Earth Observation
satellite in 1972, it marked the beginning of
a space remote sensing times. Since then,
humans have rediscovered the Earth, where
they survive, with new perspectives from
space. The major powers quickly developed
a variety of Earth Observation satellites
for military use, then gradually for civil
applications. As space technology, photoelectric
technology, microwave technology and
computer technology developed, remote
sensing technology has entered a new phase
when multi-resolution, multi-band, multipolarization, multi-temporal massive earth

observation data could be provided in time.
Satellite remote sensing has many merits,
such as wide coverage, repeated observation
and lack of restrictions from space.
returning from the target, then displays the

signals in the form of images after processing.
Microwave is sensitive to dielectric constant
and roughness of ground objects, and
widely used in estimation of crop yield,
forest survey, disaster monitoring, marine
application, geological exploration, and
military reconnaissance. Microwave does
not rely on sunlight and has the ability to
acquire images under all weather conditions
and at all times as well as the particular
penetration capabilities, so microwave remote
sensing data and optical data are highly
complementary.
Aerial remote sensing, developed from

aerial photography reconnaissance, has the
advantages of mature technology, largescale imaging, high-resolution, suitability
for large scale terrain mapping and detailed
investigation of the small area. However,
there are limitations in flight altitude,
endurance, altitude control, all-weather
performance ability as well as a wide range
of dynamic monitoring. Aerial and satellite
remote sensing can play complementary roles
according to different applications.
6.1.1 Optical Satellites

Optical earth observation technologies
encompass two aspects: observing the earths
surface and observing the earths atmosphere.
The parts of the earth surface that can be
observed by satellites include the land,
ocean, ice and polar regions. The parts of
the earths atmosphere that can be observed
include the clouds, radiation, greenhouse gas,
atmospheric components and status, etc. To
date, there are hundreds of optical satellites
from about 20 countries that can provide
images to support relief efforts and damage
assessment of natural disasters with map
monitoring (Table 6.1).
Visible light, infrared and microwave are the

bands usually used in remote sensing. Visible
light works as camera. Infrared sensors
generally have larger size, more complex
structure, more sophisticated system and
can perceive infrared band, outside of visible
light. The imaging mechanism of microwave
remote sensing is different from optical
sensor, and SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) is
a common technology in microwave remote
sensing. SAR emits electromagnetic wave
energy, records scattering signal strength
Table 6.1 Optical satellite for disaster management (2008) modified from NOAA
Resolution in meters (# of bands)
Launch date
System
Country
PAN
VNIR
SWIR
MIR
TIR
Swath in
KM
18/09/2007
WorldView-1
United States
0.5
32(3)
600
15/06/2007
CBERS-2B
China/Brazil
20
1.64(4)
113
10/01/2007
IRS Cartosat 2
India
20(3)
20(1)
120
28/07/2006
KOMPSAT-2
Korea
10(3)
20(1)
120
15/06/2006
Resource-DK-1
Russia
2.8(4)
20
25/04/2006
EROS B
Israel
0.7
20(4)
120
24/01/2006
ALOS
Japan
2.5
6(3)
23.9/70
87
Continued
Launch date
System
Country
PAN
VNIR
SWIR
MIR
TIR
Swath in
KM
27/10/2005
TopSat
United Kingdom
2.5
6.5(5)
78
27/10/2005
Beijing-1 (DMC China)
China
56(2)
56(1)
600
26/08/2005
MONITOR-E #1
Russia
8(4)
24
05/03/2005
IRS Cartosat 1
India
2.5
6.5(5)
78
01/12/2004
DMC ThaiPhat
Thailand
177
20/04/2004
RocSat2
Chinese Taipei
6.5(5)
78
21/10/2003
CBERS-2
China/Brazil
20
113
17/10/2003
IRS ResourceSat-1
India
35, 70
27/09/2003
DMC BilSat
Turkey
12
32(3)
600
27/09/2003
DMC NigeriaSat-1
Nigeria
30(4)
30(2)
60(1)
185
27/09/2003
DMC UK
United Kingdom
80(4)
185
26/06/2003
OrbView 3
United States
20
28/11/2002
DMC AlSat-1
Algeria
2.5(4)
11.3
04/05/2002
SPOT-5
France
2.5
6.5(5)
78
22/10/2001
Proba
ESA
10(3)
50
18/10/2001
Quickbird-2
United States
0.6
39(3)
600
07/12/2000
EO-1
United States
10
26(4)
52
05/12/2000
EROS A1
Israel
1.8
20(3)
120
28/06/2000
Tsinghua-1
China
5(4), 20(3)
20(3)
20(2)
20(3)
12
12/03/2000
MTI
United States
30(6)
30(3)
37
20/12/1999
KOMPSAT-1
Korea
6.6
94
15/12/1999
Terra
Japan/USA
2.5(4)
16
24/09/1999
IKONOS-2
United States
18/36(63)
14
15/04/1999
Landsat 7
United States
15
4(8)
16
24/03/1998
SPOT-4
France
10
36(3)
600
29/09/1997
IRS ID
India
14
28/12/1995
IRS IC
India
22/01/1990
SPOT-2
France
10
60
01/03/1984
Landsat 5
United States
6.1.2 Radar Satellites

Microwave remote sensing can penetrate
clouds and be operated on rainy days. A list of
operational radar satellites that are providing
useful images for disaster mitigation is found
in Table 6.2. Microwave Imaging Radar is
an imaging system, which azimuth direction
88
4(4)
improves spatial resolution by synthetic

aperture principles, and the resolution is
irrelevant to the height of either airborne or
spaceborne platforms. Many countries, such
as Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan,
Russia and the USA, have developed their
airborne and spaceborne SAR sensors.
Table 6.2 The main SAR satellites and their payloads

Design
Life
Imaging
frequency
Spatial
resolution
C-Band, 5.405
3 to 100 meters
GHz
Polarization
Look direction
Status
Single (HH, VV, VH, HV)

Dual (HH/ HV, VV/VH)
polarimetric
Left- and rightlooking
In operation (Since
2007)
RADARSAT-2
7 years
RADARSAT-1
5 years
C-Band,
5.3 GHz
10 to 100 m
Single HH
Right-looking
In operation (Since
1995)
Envisat ASAR
5 years
C-Band, 5.331
GHz
30 to 1000
meters
Single (HH, VV)

Alternating (VV/HH, VV/VH,
HH/HV)
Right-looking
In operation (Since
2002)
TerraSAR-X
5 years
X-Band, 9.650
Single (HH, VV)
1 to 15 meters
GHz
Dual (VV/HH, VV/VH, HH/HV)
Left- and rightlooking
In operation (Since
2007)
Right-looking
In operation (Since
2005)
ALOS PALSAR 5 years
L-Band, 1.27
GHz
10 to 100
meters
Single (HH, VV)

Dual (HH/ HV, VV/VH)
polarimetric (exp.)
6.1.3 Geosynchronous Satellites

Earth Observation meteorological satellites
on geosynchronous orbit can also be used
for disaster mitigation. The satellites in
such orbits can be regarded as a stationary
platform for disaster information capturing.
At present, these satellites can provide the
capability to get data on a disaster area in
less than every half-hour, with less than 1km
resolution. The section below provides a brief
summary of the capabilities of these satellites.
GOES: Geostationary Operational Environment Satellites (GOES) are in the series of
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration) geostationary satellites. They
provide continuous monitoring of weather
conditions such as flash floods, hail storms,
and hurricanes. The GOES satellites are able
to dynamically monitor storm evolution
and track their movements. GOES satellite
imagery is also used to estimate rainfall
during the thunderstorms and hurricanes for
flash flood warnings, as well as estimates of
snowfall accumulations and the overall extent
of snow cover.
GOMS: GOMS/Elektro is a Russian operated
three-axis stabilized satellite with a payload

that includes a three-channel, earth-imaging
r a d i ome te r as wel l as c omprehe ns ive
communications facilities together with a
capability to measure space radiation spectra
and densities. The communication system
transmits monitoring image data and space
environment data to the ground.
METEOSAT: The Meteosat series of satellites
are geostationary meteorological satellites
operated by EUMETSAT under the Meteosat
Transition Programme (MTP). The program
was established to ensure the operational
continuity between the end of the successful
Meteosat Operational Programme in 1995
and Meteosat Second Generation (MSG),
which came into operation at the start of 2004
using improved satellites.
Other meteorological satellite series are the
Japan GMS series, Indian INSAT satellite, and
Chinas Fengyun satellites.
6.1.4 Small Satellite Constellations

A small remote sensing satellite is small and
lightweight. Even with the weak capabilities
on payload number, power on-board and
89
narrow transmission bandwidth, the small

satellite can still show its outstanding
performance on economy and flexibility for
Earth Observation (EO). Small satellites are
always assembled as a constellation on the
same orbit to take high ground-resolution
and frequent revisit duration. Collaborating
with geostationary metrological satellites

and small satellite constellations, EO can
provide frequent monitoring imaging from
1km to 1 meter, with optical and SAR
sensors. Table 6.3 shows the small satellite
constellation programs around the world at
this moment.
Table 6.3 Small satellite constellation programmes in the year of 2008

(The data used here is cited from official published documents)
Country/
Organization
Main sensor
Constellation resolution
Constellation return
duration
DMC
DMC partners
Optical
32m
0.5 day
SPOT
France
Optical
4m
26 days
Terra-SAR-X
Germany
SAR
1m
4 days
COSMOS SkyMed
Italy
SAR
1m
1.5 days
HJ
China
Optical/SAR
22m/5m
0.5 days
6.2 Earth Observation for

Earthquake Disaster
This section gives a detailed introduction
on EO technologies for earthquake disaster
mitigation and management. At present,
there are only certain EO applications in the
mitigation and response phases, and there is
no reliable case in the prediction and warning
stages. The capabilities of earth observation
technologies will be discussed from such
application, development and research
aspects.

Mitigation
Earthquake disaster mitigation aims to
protect the public against the possible impact
of future earthquake events. The obvious
course for action is to remove populations
from zones of known high seismic risk. In
most cases, especially in developing countries,
90
this is not economically feasible.

It is possible but very costly to construct an
environment, which will withstand almost any
earthquake. The high cost is often prohibitive
and therefore dictates the need for an accurate
assessment of the exposure and vulnerability
of settlements in terms of the probability
of occurrence and magnitude, and the
accelerations likely to be experienced. EO
can certainly help in mapping exposure (e.g.
settlement proximity to areas at risk) and
can go some way in identifying vulnerability
(e.g. building characterization) as well as
mapping surface expression of faults in
seismically active zones. Assessing the
probability of occurrence, magnitude and
likely accelerations, however, is an extremely
difficult task in regions where earthquakes
frequently occur.
Where there is enough seismic data, the
frequency of large-magnitude events can
b e g au ge d by e x t r ap ol at i on f rom t he
frequency of smaller events. This provides
only a first approximation. To get a better
assessment, seismologists try to locate, map,
and understand local faults, frequency and
mechanism of rupture. This understanding is
placed in the context of the regional tectonic
setting of crustal motion (neo-tectonics). In
areas of low seismicity (where earthquakes
can still pose a serious threat), assessments
of frequency and magnitude are based on
geological evidence (slickensides, sand blows,
etc.) as well as tectonics. It is important to
recognize that this fundamental seismological
research makes a direct and important link
to the practical issues of effective earthquake
mitigation.
There is consequently a requirement for a variety
of spatial and temporal information which
can be obtained from EO and other sources.
Such information includes: demographics,
infrastructure (communications, utility and
high risk installations, hospitals, and relief
centers), building stock, seismic history,
neo-tectonics, lithology, fault location,
mechanism and dynamics, strain estimates
and budgets.
Potential users of such earthquake information are following:
National and local authorities (planners,
building regulators);
Government agencies with specific charge
to against earthquake risk;
National survey agencies;
Possible disaster management coordinating
bodies (see recommendations);
Possibly some relief agencies (planning for
disaster scenario);
Insurance/Re-insurance industries (assess

liability);
Risk management consultancies;
Private enterprise (to mitigate financial
impact and losses).
6.2.2 Current EO Capability

The following are areas of research and
operational contributions of space technology
to earthquake disaster mitigation.
Currently, although there is no EO application
case in warning phase, there are still some
preliminary applications using operational
EO capabilities in the mitigation and response
phases. In terms of mitigation, EO is used for
regional structural tectonic mapping and
other topographic and landuse base-mapping
for emergency relief logistics, estimation
of settlement, structure vulnerability (e.g.
building design) and exposure (e.g. proximity
to active areas). EO also contributes to damagemapping through the use of high resolution
satellites (Table 6.1) data, which is of prime
concern to relief agencies that need to locate
victims and structures at risk. The insurance
industry also uses high resolution images to
assess losses. Interferometry SAR (InSAR) is
increasingly used for the mapping of seismic
ground deformation. InSAR maps provide
information on pre-, co- and post-seismic
deformations, and therefore contribute to
the mitigation phase by adding to the spatial
understanding of fault mechanism dynamics
and strain. They are also used to correlate
ground displacement with damage in built
environments.
Demographics and infrastructure: The high
resolution (less than 5m) optical satellites (e.g.
Quickbird, IKONOS, SPOT, IRS panchromatic),
and radar satellites (e.g. RADARSAT-2, and
91
TERRA SARX,) can be used to provide

current settlements and infrastructure
information in high risk seismic areas. These
high resolution satellite images before and
after an earthquake are providing a useful
source for pre-event planning, post-event
response and earthquake damage assessment.
The new satellite image information is
usually integrated with other geological and
seismological information above GIS data
base by agencies and groups administering
relief and managing disaster logistics.
Tectonic setting: The regional tectonic setting
of an area forms the basis for assessing its
seismicity. Several space-based techniques
continue to contribute significantly to our
understanding of regional tectonics including
satellite geodesy (satellite laser ranging, very
long baseline interferometer and use of GPS).
Radar and laser altimetry is useful, especially
over the ocean, to map the geo-ID and gravity
field.
Neo-tectonics: Recent tectonic activity is closely
associated with contemporary seismicity
and is studied in several ways using satellite
observations. Both optical and radar data
are used to map, for example, active fault
scarps, actively growing folds on the surface

that record buried tip-line thrusting and
stream offsets or topographic breaks of slope
that relate to active faulting. Multispectral
or hyperspectral optical satellite data are,
under some circumstances, being used
for lithological discrimination that must
be mapped to allow geo-chronological
correlation. Most of these techniques
require resolution as good as available. In
addition, satellite images are being used
to map lithology in seismic areas to infer
potential liquefaction in flat lying coastal or
lacustrine environments or slope failure and
in hilly or mountainous terrains.
Lineament mapping: Optical and radar
satellite images are very useful to map the
surface expression of faults in both vegetated
and non-vegetated areas. Some of these faults
are usually seismically active. For example,
RADARSAT images showing active faults
superimposed on seismic maps are very
useful in understanding regional structural
framework in relation to local seismicity as
shown in Figure 6.1.
Fault-motion and strain: For two decades
satellite laser ranging and very long baseline
Figure 6.1 The deformation map of Mani Earthquake (Mw7.5) occurred in East Kunlun Mountains of Tibet on Nov. 8, 1997.
The interferogram along the fault indicates typical left sharing deformation mechanism
92
interferometry have been used to monitor

strain and crustal motion respectively in the
vicinity of active faults. These techniques
have been superseded by GPS as rapid
development of receivers, which make it
possible to install them in dense networks
to monitor large areas. Using these arrays,
it is possible to improve maps of known
faults, detect possible unknown faults,
and locate places on these faults which are
locked and therefore susceptible to sudden
rupture and earthquakes. Measurement
of ground strain and stress accumulation
is a direct and valuable input to models of
earthquake risk. Wide-area GPS arrays are
now used to monitor horizontal ground
motions. Recently, InSAR from existing radar
satellites (Table 6.2) has demonstrated the
ability to map line-of-sight ground motions.
It is underway to develop hybrid InSAR
technologies to supplement or replace GPS
networks.
InSAR: Thre e complement ar y InSAR
techniques are now being used in earthquake
risk management. These techniques are
Differential InSAR (D-InSAR), Corner
Reflector InSAR (CR-InSAR) and Permanent
Scattered InSAR (PS-InSAR). None of
above three InSAR techniques offers a
complete solution to the monitoring of coand inter-seismic ground motions, however
each of them has its own advantages and
disadvantages. It is important to note that
phase change measurements are line-ofsight between the satellite and the target.
The technique also becomes progressively
less sensitive if the vector of displacement is
close to the satellite track. For such reasons,
until multi-view angle satellite constellations
exist, InSAR techniques were regarded as
largely supplemental to other ground based
monitoring systems. The current planning
of a series of radar constellation satellites by
the Canadian, European and Italian Space

agencies are planning to improve the current
revisit time (a serious problem of using
InSAR) for monitoring high risk seismic
areas.
D-InSAR maps show large-scale ground
deformations associated with main earthquake
events, resulting from the temporal separation
and horizontal baseline between the two
SAR scenes. D-InSAR is more appropriate to
the measurement of main earthquake events
because it shows the large scale displacements
in terms of both magnitude and coverage. It
can provide valuable understanding of fault
mechanisms and can input forecast models in
the mitigation phase.
CR-InSAR involves t he pl acement of
man-made radar reflectors, against which
precise, sub-centimeter measurements of
displacement can be measured over time.
CR-InSAR is appropriate for the motion
monitoring of specific structures (dams,
bridges, power stations, etc.) or more
localized areas at risk. The attraction of
using corner reflectors is their positional
stability, zero maintenance requirements and,
particularly, their persisting high coherence
over the time-spans needed to detect tectonic
motion. However, the technique is invasive
and can be issues of reflector security on
the ground. The advantage of CR-InSAR is
that the measured target can be sited exactly
where requiredacross a bridge, around
a dam, along a pipeline or across a fault.
Because of the invasive nature of CR-InSAR,
of the costs associated with the manufacture
and deployment of reflectors, CR-InSAR is
considered more appropriate to localized
installation.
PS-InSAR involves the processing of more
than 30 interferograms over the same place
to identify a network of temporally-stable,
93
highly reflective ground featurespermanent

scatterers. The phase history of each scatterer
is then extracted to provide interpolated
maps of average annual ground motions, or
more importantly, the motion history. Due to
the relatively high density of scatterers that
occur in built environments (a few hundred
per square kilometer) and the large number
of atmosphere samples (SAR scenes) used,
the heterogeneity of the atmosphere can be
accurately modeled and the measurements
of sub-millimeter accuracy can be calculated.
A limitation of PS-InSAR is lack of control
over precise scatterer location. But with the
densities obtained in built environments, it is
not considered as an issue for the mapping of
interseismic ground motions. Given sufficient
repeat SAR data, the sub-millimeter accuracy
of PSInSAR represents an effective tool for
the measurement of interseismic ground
motions. NB results between such large
distances could be misleading in some cases
and its accuracy is dependant on the density
of the scatters.
6.2.3 Warning and Response

The prediction of an earthquake can ignite
fear and anxiety, resulting in disorder
and chaos at a level of damage and injury
that might approach that of the predicted
earthquake itself. It is for this reason that
some authorities have established strict
protocols for the evaluation and issuance of
earthquake warnings. In addition to being
validated and issued by an official authority,
an effective prediction should be specific
and accurate in three regards: time, place
and magnitude. The accuracies required
vary with respect to the prediction purpose
that public alerts should be accurate to
within (about) 15km of the epicenter, a few
days of occurrence and within one unit of
magnitude. For other purposes (for example,
advanced warning to officials and public
94
works) they may be less accurate but, in

this case, care must be given to avoid public
release or disclosure. There are no generally
accepted operational methods for predicting
earthquakes, although some successes have
been claimed. They are questionable and, in
any case, not sufficiently reliable. Techniques
being investigated range from the reaction of
animals to inert gas content of well waters.
Variations in the electrical field have also
been claimed to be precursors to earthquakes.
However, the validity of this technique is hotly
disputed. Thermal anomalies, particularly
over the ocean, are also claimed as earthquake
precursors but here again the reliability (and
physics) of the process is questioned. While
research on these space-based (and other)
techniques continues, it seems that we are
still far from finding a method that will
provide predictions of sufficient accuracy to
meet operational requirements. The CEOS
1999 report has provided some definitive
statements related to earthquake warning and
these statements still are relevant today. The
earthquake warning phase means prediction
of an impending event, and any warning must
meet stringent accuracy requirements.
Earthquakes can completely devastate a region
in very short time, so it is imperative to provide
emergency help quickly. Emergency managers
must therefore have some information, even
if it is approximate, on what they are facing
within hours after the event. The urgency for
information following a severe earthquake
is so immediate that some major relief
organizations depend on damage assessment
models. These models will contain data
on building stock, infrastructure, utilities
and other important aspects of the built
environment (e.g. hazardous chemical
stockpiles). In addition, the models will
contain data relative to seismic acceleration
(depth to bedrock, soil type, etc.). With
specific data on location, depth, magnitude

and first arrival of a seismic event, these
models can provide very valuable timely
approximations to the extent of damage.
There is a correlation between ground
deformation and damage when mapped using
D-InSAR, although damage in this case is
dependent on building design and the ground
accelerations experienced. This has relevance
to the estimation of losses and planning for
reconstruction to relocate populations to
safer locations. The following lists the type
of information that high resolution satellite
images can provide (if available) quickly after
an earthquake:
Location, nature and extent of damage:
Using p ost-event acquisitions, high
resolution images both from optical and
radar satellites can be used to generate
different images (before and after the event)
to assist in the mapping of damage;
Provide revision to existing infrastructure
and building stock;
Location of fires;
Location of high-risk utilitieschemical
plants, nuclear reactors, dams, etc.);
Changes to access (e.g. roads or bridges
destroyed), and
Extent of any flooding.
6.2.4 Recommendations
Compile relevant base-maps and building
stock, distribution, density and infrastructure databases of high risk areas. Satellite
images in combination with aerial photos
and other map information should be
used to produce this information (if they
exist), or update the base information from
high resolution satellite images. Expand
existing global/regional and local database

of seismic risk zones, and integrate with
population distribution, infrastructure,
vulnerability and exposure, seismic history,
relevant geology, known strain, estimated
InSAR coherence levels and optical VHRderived base-maps.
Optimize the InSAR data supply chain for
all types of InSAR analysis using existing
and archive SAR images (suitable baselines,
resolution and line of site viewing geometry).
Produce simple D-InSAR maps for regional
deformation and to assess the feasibility to do
more detail CR- and PS- InSAR techniques.
Acquire and archive historical background
datasets over high-risk areas to facilitate
permanent scatterer and corner reflector
InSAR strain mapping and co-seismic
interferogram generation.
Produce permanent scatterer or corner
reflector InSAR image maps over high risk
areas from InSAR archives to establish strain
record and integrate with relevant earthquake
information system for risk assessment.
6.3 EO Technology for Flood

and Drought Disasters
Flood and drought disasters are two major
natural disasters in the world. They have
the widest global impact, and cause the
most significant harm to human survival
and development. With earth observation
technolog y, t here are more and more
extensive applications of EO technology
in flood and drought disasters monitoring
and prevention. This section focuses on the
applications of earth observation technology
in flood and drought management, analysis
95
6.3.1 Flood Mitigation
event. These tables can be used as a guide to

acquire satellite images for these different
phases of the flood event.
Today, there are many satellites which can be

used for flood management application. Both
optical and radar satellites have been used to
quantify catchment physical characteristics,
such as watershed boundaries, elevation
and slope, land cover, as well as catchment
var iables such as s oil moisture, snow
pack, temperature, vegetation indices and
evapotranspiration. They have also been used
operationally for flood monitoring, mapping
and damage assessment. There has also been
considerable work to develop technology to
integrate these remotely sensed estimates
and in situ data into hydrological models
for flood forecasting. Table 6.4 and Table 6.5
provide the spatial and temporal resolution
requirements of EO images to be used in the
stage of before, during and after the flood
Contributions of spaceborne remote sensing

to flood warning, disaster assessment and
hazard reduction will rely on a broad-based
program of remotely sensed and in situ
measurements of rainfall, river heights, soil
moisture, with vegetation change providing
critical indices for flood and landslide
hazards. Integration of remote sensing
and in situ measurements is needed, along
with hydrologic models benefiting from
improvements in multi-scale observations of
climate and weather, from global to synoptic
and mesoscale to storm scales. Satellite-based
observations will need to be augmented with
extensive land based measurements and
data from existing and future, integrated
hydrologic and geodetic arrays.
and forecast.
Table 6.4 EO spatial resolution requirements for flooding phases and application
Application
Phase
Threshold
Optimum
Land use
Post-flood
Pre-flood
30 m (MSI)
4-5 m (MSI)
Infrastructure
Post-flood
Pre-flood
5 m (pan-vis)
1 m (pan-vis)
Vegetation
Post-flood
Pre-flood
250 m (M/HSI)
30 m
Soil moisture
Snow pack
Pre-flood
Pre-flood
1 km
1 km
100 m
DEM (vertical)
Post-flood
Pre-flood
1-3 m (InSAR/pan-vis)
0.10-0.15 m
Flood development
flood peak
During flood
Pre-flood
30 m (SAR/MSI/
VIS-pan/IR)
5m
Damage assessment
(feedback/lessons learned)
Post flood
2-5 m (MSI/pan-vis/SAR)
0.3 m
Bathymetry(near-shore)
Pre-flood
1 km (SAR/MSI)
90 m
MSI=multi-spectral(2 to 50 bands), HSI=hyperspectral (>50 bands), pan-vis=panchromatic visible imagery, SAR=synthetic

aperture radar, InSAR=interferometric SAR.
96
Table 6.5 EO temporal resolution requirements by application for flood disaster

Application
Image refresh rate

(Threshold/Optimum)
Image delivery time

(Threshold/Optimum)
Infrastructure
1-3years/6months
Months
Land use
1-3years/6months
Months
Vegetation
Soil Moisture
Snow Pack
3months/1month
1week/daily
2month/1week
Months
1day
1day
DEM pre- and post flood
1-3years/months
months
Flood development
Flood peak
24-hr(tasking- delivery)
Hours-days(function of drainage
basin)
Hours-days(function of drainage
basin)/
Damage assessment
n/a
2-3days/<1day
Bathymetry pre- and post-flood
1-3years/months
Months
Figure 6.2 presents a typical flowchart for

generation of the flood extent maps using
satellite radar (SAR) images. With the using
of methodology for the identification and
mapping of the flooded areas, it is possible to
monitor and investigate the flood evolution
during various phases. Figure 6.3 shows
a typical example of a satellite flood map
with utilization of MODIS optical data in
the Crisul Alb basin on April 9, 2004. These
satellite-generated flood maps played very
important role especially after the above
crisis, for conducting a damage inventory and
support recovery programs.
6.3.2 Drought Mitigation

Drought is the single most important
weather-related natural disaster. It is often
aggravated by human action, since it affects
very large areas for very long periods. It has a
serious impact on regional food production,
often reducing life expectancy for entire
populations and economic performance of
large regions or several countries. Over the
past 30 years, droughts affected about half of
the three billion people who suffered from
all natural disasters. In addition, subsidence
of buildings, engineering works and relief
SAR reference
image product
SAR crisis
image product
Speckle filtering
Geometric correction
Subset/Mosaic
Topographic maps
Speckle filtering
Geometric correction
Subset/Mosaic
Preprocessed SAR
reference image product
Data combination
(normalized difference index)
Threshold classification
Post-classification
Preprocessed SAR
reference image product
Hydrographic network
Map editing
Administrative boundaries
Flood extent product
Figure 6.2 Flowchart for the generation of the flood extent maps using satellite radar (SAR) images
97
Figure 6.3 Flood extent mapping in a GIS environment based on MODIS-TERRA satellite data of April 9, 2004
measures following droughts involve high costs,

massive economic losses, ecological resources
destruction and food shortages which results in
starvation for millions of people. To reduce the
consequences of drought, the main components
of a drought preparedness and mitigation
plan normally include drought prediction,
monitoring and early warning, assessment of
impacts and response.
Nearly all global seasonal climate anomaly
predictions are now possible due to the
successful combination of new observational
networks, improved initial and boundary
conditions of the ocean, atmosphere and land
coupled models. Near-real time evaluation
of in situ and remote sensing data allows,
for the first time, physically-based drought
warnings several months in advance, to
which a growing number of countries already
link policies for agriculture, fisheries and
distribution of goods. There are a number of
satellite-based programs that are providing
improved detail relating to expected climatic
change. The potential contribution of existing
98
satellites is not fully exploited. The synergy

gained by the combination of satellite sensors
is not fully used. In addition, all of the satellite
data are not distributed internationally. For
example, there is a lack of joint evaluation
of AVHRR and TOVS for the improvement
of temperature and humidity profiles in the
lower troposphere.
With regards to drought monitoring and
early warning systems, most countries use
ground based information on drought
related parameters such as rainfall, weather,
and crop condition and water availability.
Earth observations from satellites are highly
complementary to those collected by in-situ
systems. Satellites are often necessary for the
provision of synoptic, wide-area coverage
and provision of the frequent information
required putting in-situ information into
broader spatial monitoring of drought
conditions.
Rainfall, surface wetness and temperature
monitoring: Currently, multi-channel and
multi-sensor data sources from geostationary
platforms (such as GOES, METEOSAT,

INSAT, GMS) and polar orbiting satellites
(such as NOAA, DMSP SSMI and the recently
launched IRS-P4 MSMR) have been used,
or are planned to be used, for meteorological
parameter evaluation, interpretation, validation
and integration. The estimated parameters
are precipitation intensity, amount, coverage,
atmospheric moisture and winds, and
sometimes even surface (soil) wetness.
Vegetation monitoring: The vegetation
condition monitoring is currently possible,
ranging from NOAA AVHRR data at 1.1km
resolution in a daily revisit, to IRS OCM with
360m resolution in a two day revisit and to
IRS WiFS with 188m resolution in a 5-day
revisit. The normalized difference vegetation
index (NDVI) and temperature condition
index (TCI) derived from satellite data is
accepted worldwide for regional monitoring.
The USA, Canada and Mexico established the
North American Drought Monitor (NADM)
program in 2002 to provide information
on drought conditions across the North

American continent on an ongoing basis
(Figure 6.4). The centerpiece of the NADM
is a group of drought experts and database
specialists from across the continent working
together in an ongoing operational capacity
to carefully compile and analyze disparate
climate observations at multiple scales. With
its indistinct temporal and spatial boundaries,
a convergence of evidence is needed to define
the boundaries of drought and produce
a depiction of drought severity that can
be used for decision-making by a diverse
group of decision-makers. This evidence is
based on great quantities of environmental
observations collected across the continent
from a myriad of land and space-based
observing systems. Many of these systems are
unique to each country, but the data collected
from each are openly shared among the three
countries and are essential to filling critical
gaps in knowledge. When brought together
and analyzed by experts familiar with the
unique physical aspects of drought within
North American Drought Monitor
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nadm.html
June 30, 2007
Analysts:
Canada - Dwayne Chobanik
Mexico - Valentina Davydova
Elvia Delgado Diaz
Adelina Albanil
Reynaldo Pascual
U.S.A. - Brad Rippey
David Miskus*
Released: Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Intensity:
D0 Abnormally Dry
D1 Drought - Moderate
D2 Drought - Severe
D3 Drought - Extreme
D4 Drought - Exceptional
(* Responsible for collecting analysts

input & assembling the NADM map)
Drought not analyzed

in shaded areas
Drought Impact Types:

Delineates dominant impacts
A = Agriculture
H = Hydrological (Water)
H
AH
A
A
H
AH
AH
AH H
H
A
AH
H
AH
AH
The Drought Monitor

focuses on broad-scale
conditions. Local
conditions may vary.
See accompanying text
for a general summary.
AH
H
AH
H
AH
AH
Regions outside of the agricultural landscape
of Canada may not be as accurate as other
regions due to limited information.
Figure 6.4 North American drought monitor
99
their country, a cohesive picture of drought

is produced within and across the borders of
each country. This product serves the needs
of user communities within sectors as diverse
as agriculture and forestry, water resource
management, energy markets and health.
Close coordination among government leaders
and scientists in each country provided the
means for identifying critical gaps in existing
programs and in establishing methods for
addressing deficiencies. Processes were
established to facilitate the open exchange
of data and information across borders, and
the transfer of scientific expertise and data
management principles between countries
was a key element of building the capacity to
monitor drought conditions on an ongoing
basis across the continent.
Besides NADM program, there still are a lot
of EO drought programmes which had been
launched as following:
The Africa Real-Time Environmental
Monitoring using Imaging Satellites
(ARTEMIS) is operational at FAO. It uses
METEOSAT rainfall estimates and AVHRR
NDVI values for Africa;
The USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural
Weather Facility (JAWF) uses Global OLR
anomaly maps, rainfall maps, vegetation and
temperature condition maps from GOES,
METEOSAT, GMS and NOAA satellites;
The Joint Research C enter ( JRC) of
the European Commission (EC) issues
a periodical bulletin on agricultural
c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r t h e M A R S - S TAT
( App l i c at i on of R e m ot e s e ns i ng t o
Agricultural statistics) project which
uses vegetation index, thermal based
evapotranspiration and microwave based
indicators;
100
The Agricultural Division of Statistics

Canada issues weekly crop condition reports
based on NOAA AVHRR NDVI, along with
agro meteorological statistics, and
National Remote Sensing Agency, Department of Space issues a biweekly drought
bulletin and monthly reports at smaller
administrative units for India under
National Agricultural Drought Assessment
and Monitoring System (NADAMS), which
uses NOAA AVHRR and IRS WiFS based
NDVI and ground based weather reports.
6.4 Earth Observation for

Tropical Cyclones
The influence of global warming on the
global tropical cyclone system including
typhoon, hurricane and tropical cyclone
shows an upward trend. The disasters caused
by meteorological tsunami (storm surge)
also show an upward trend. Considering the
potential threat of the disasters caused by the
typhoon and storm surge to the development
of economic and society, the international
relevant departments should strengthen the
work on monitoring and early warning for
typhoon and storm surge disasters.
Typhoons (Pacific Ocean) and hurricanes
(Caribbean and Atlantic) occur in the vast
tropical ocean/seas where the meteorological
observations are sometimes rarely carried out.
The US Hurricane Watch has a very advanced
system of satellite and aircraft systems
following Hurricane Katrina in 2006. The
global typhoon and hurricane monitoring,
forecasting, generation development, strength
and shift speed are carried out by a series of
meteorological satellites from many countries.
In the Northwest Pacific, typhoon monitoring
is mainly done by the United States Air Force

Base in Guam. The typhoon environmental
parameters obtained from satellite detection
of cloud characteristics and related weather
systems provide a guide for the forecasting of
typhoon movement. The typhoons strength
and structure affects its movement. For
example, the asymmetrical structure of
typhoon clouds can assist in identifying the
abnormal movement of typhoons. These
satellites provide reliable resolution and
timely information of the land, ocean and
the atmospheric and therefore are vital for
typhoon monitoring and disaster assessment.
Current research is focused on improving
Earth Observations for weather forecasting
an d w ar n i ng an d a l s o i mprov i ng t h e
timeliness, data quality, and long-term
continuity of observations to revise current
forecasting models. New observations will
not just improve existing capabilities, but will
also enable new forecast products such as air
quality. The rapid dissemination of weather
information is still a challenge in many parts
of the world affected by typhoons.
6.4.1 Case Study

Figure 6.5, Figure 6.6 and Figure 6.7 shown
b elow were acquired b efore and after
the tropical storm NARGIS landed on
Myanmar. The tropical storm formed at the
Bay of Bengal landed at Hainggyi, Irrawaddy
Province on May 2, 2008 in the morning.
And then swept the Myanmar delta area,
went through Irrawaddy province, Mon State,
Karen, Pegu province, and Yangon province.
It is reported that when it landed, the highest
speed of the tropical storm reached up to
190 miles per hour. By the latest official
data from the Myanmar national TV station
and broadcasting station, the government
confirmed that the death toll caused by storm
was 22,500 and the missing population was
41,000. The aid officials from the United
Nations said that the storm also caused
1,000,000 people homeless, because many
villages were destroyed and many farmlands
disappeared.
Storm surges cause natural disasters in many
counties and affect the development of the
Figure 6.5 The monitoring image of tropical storm NARGIS on May 2, 2008
101
Figure 6.6 The contrast images on Hainggyi before and after the attack of NARGIS. The above figure was taken on
November 11, 2004 and the below figure was taken on May 5, 2008
Yangon
Yangon
Figure 6.7 The contrast images taken by NASA at Myanmar before and after the NARGIS. The left image was taken
on April 15, 2008, in which rivers and lakes were clear. The right image was taken on May 5, 2008. It shows that after
the NARGIS attacked Myanmar, the whole coastal plain was flooded; the Yangon at the red triangle was almost totally
surrounded by the flood
national economy. So the research on the

storm surges and predictions are always the
hot point in the meteorological field. The
storm surge numeric prediction began in
the 1950s in Europe and the United States.
102
They used computers, numeric weather

prediction technology for storm surges
and monitoring network technology and
earth observation technology to improve
the storm surge numeric prediction. STFS
(Storm Tide Forecasting Service) developed

an ANN model (Artificial Neural Network)
that has the ability to do nonlinear modeling,
common modeling and anti-noise. The
prediction reports showed that compared
with other prediction methods, the ANN
with computer technology is the best one to
predict the future 6hr, 12hr, 24hr water levels,
and the error (mean square deviation) is
11.7cm, which is the smallest. The errors of
other methods are above 25.0cm.
6.4.2 EO Research Gaps and

Recommendations
exploited through better research, advanced

data assimilation and predictive models,
building telecommunications infrastructure
capacity, and transforming weather predictions
into formats understandable to decision makers
and the public. Priority research areas are:
Wind and humidity profiles at all vertical
levels;
Temperature profiles with adequate vertical
resolution in cloudy areas;
Precipitation;
There is a lack of complete global

observational coverage of the atmosphere,
land and oceans (e.g. inadequate resolution
and quality), which inhibits development
and exploitation of extended range
products. Table 6.6 (GEOSS) illustrates
the critical atmospheric parameters that
are not adequately measured by current
or planned observing systems. Exploiting
existing weather information is a particular
problem for developing countries, which
often lack communication mechanisms to
properly receive and act on that information.
Additionally, there is a shortfall in education
and training processes, and the resources
needed to sustain the development and use of
existing weather information capabilities in
those developing countries.
Soil moisture;
The expansion of the observing capacity is

needed to detect precursor environmental
conditions as the foundation for improving
all weather and climate services, as called
for in the plan for the WMO World Weather
Watch. The highest priority should be given
to filling gaps in the in situ and spacebased observation capacity that limit data
assimilation and predictive capabilities.
Additionally, emphasis is needed on open
global sharing of data. Next, this data must be
To advance the capability in monitoring and

early warning of tropical storms and storm
surge the following needs to be done.
Surface pressure;
Snow equivalent water content.
For satellites, the priority covers the need
for improving calibration of all data. In
the geostationary orbit there is a need for
improving imagers and sounders. There is
also a need to improve the timeliness and
temporal coverage of data delivery from low
Earth orbit. Improving the observations of seasurface winds, altimetry and Earth radiation
are the key observational needs from low
Earth orbit. More research is also needed into
Doppler technology, precipitation observation
capability and radio occultation techniques.
Improve the warning system on tropical

storms and storm surges.
Improve the monitoring system on tropical
storms and storm surges, using satellite, radar,
ground and ocean monitoring means to
monitor their occurrence and development.
103
Table 6.6 Weather observational requirement

Very-and
Medium-range
Extended
Forecasts
Forecasts
3-10 days
10-30 days
6 Atmospheric temperature profile
7 Cloud base height
8 Cloud cover
9 Cloud drop size (at cloud top)
10 Cloud ice profile
11 Cloud imagery
12 Cloud top height
13 Cloud top temperature
14 Cloud type
15 Cloud water profile
16 Dominant wave period and direction
17 Fire area and temperature
18 Height of the top of the Planetary Boundary Layer
19 Height of tropopause
20 Land surface temperature
21 Leaf Area Index (LAI)
22 Long-wave Earth surface emissivity
23 Nomalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI)
24 Ocean currents (vector)
25 Outgoing long-wave radiation at TOA
26 Outgoing short-wave radiation at TOA
27 Ozone profile
28 Precipitation index (daily cumulative)
29 Precipitation rate (liquid and solid) at the surface
30 Sea surface bulk temperature
31 Sea-ice cover
32 Sea-ice surface temperature
33 Sea-ice thickness
34 Significant wave height
35 Snow cover
36 Snow water equivalent
37 Soil moisture
38 Specific humidity profile
39 Temperature of tropopause
40 Wind profile (horizontal and vertical components)
41 Wind speed over land and sea surface (horizontal)
Weather
Nowcasting
Short-range
Observational Requirement
0-2 hours
Forecasts
1 Aerosol profile
2-72 hours
4
2 Air pressure over land and sea surface
3 Air specific humidity (at surface)
4 Air temperature (at surface)
5 Atmospheric stability index
104
Build a sound database on tropical storms

and storm surge monitoring and disaster
management.
all these grades, the first grade response is

believed to have the highest response level.
The workflow goes as followed:
Improve the research and development

on the key technology of monitoring and
early warning for typhoons and storm
surges, especially in using new monitoring
technology and predicting the track, strength
and storm surge numerical of the typhoon.
Develop a numerical model coupled with
wind-wave-flow-surge influenced by the
typhoon, to enhance the numerical prediction
of the typhoon and storm surge.
1. Startup Condition
Improve the public positive participation

senses in disaster prevention and reduction
of tropical storms as a long assignment.
Improve the disaster evaluation caused
by tropical storms, enhance the disaster
management, and strengthen the regional
cooperation on disaster prevention,
information transferring and network
building to improve the prediction.
Enhance international cooperation and
communication, through the WMO, WMO/
ESCAP Typhoon Committee, WMO/ESCAP
Panel on Tropical Cyclone and other
international related departments. Improve
the monitoring and prediction information
exchanging and sharing in typhoon or
other disasters.
6.5 EO Guidelines for

Disaster Response
These workflow guidelines are generated
from the China National Disaster Reduction
Center. There are four grades of response in
the Chinese case, and Table 6.7 has listed the
differences between different grades. Among
The workflow starts as soon as the first grade

response injunction is received from the disaster
relief secretary of Ministry of Civil Affairs.
2. Response Measures
1) Start on-duty system
After receiving first grade response injunction, the on-duty system will be started
immediately.
2) Institute response schemescheme
instituting group
According to disaster loss situation, data,
such as remote sensing images, geographic
information and socio-economic data should
be considered comprehensively. And the first
grade response scheme must be instituted
under the support of remote sensing technology
(first grade response scheme for short).
3) Collect data informationdata collection
group
According to the demand on data and
information under the first grade response
scheme, this group must collect relevant
data and information. The major collection
channels are as follows:
Under the framework of data-sharing
agreement, order real-time high-resolution
remote sensing data, such as ENVISAT,
Quickbird, etc. from National Satellite
Meteorological Center, Remote Sensing
Satellite Ground Station of Center for Earth
Observation and Digital Earth Chinese
105
Academy of Sciences and Beijing SPOT

Satellite Image Company, etc.;
Transfer the archived high, mid, lowresolution remote sensing data such as SPOT,
IKONOS, CBERS, TM, and FY from satellite
remote sensing images database, which will
be used as the base data for analysis;
Keep contact with the relevant departments,
such as Information Department, Emergency
Department and the press office, to rapidly
obtain the dynamic information and
comprehensively analyze it;
Keep contact with the relevant minis-tries,
such as China Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Water Resources,
China Earthquake Administration and
State Oceanic Administration, to obtain the
relevant monitoring data and information
and comprehensively analyze it;
Assign personnel to disaster area to collect
relevant information, and feed it back to
the technique processing group in time, so
as to correct the analysis results, and
Launch airborne remote sensing disaster
monitoring and evaluation preplan systems,
and assign unmanned aerial vehicle to
collect disaster data over disaster area.
4) Process data for disaster information technique processing group
According to the response pattern, data
processing must be started and the response
products must be finished within a given
period. Details are shown in Figure 6.8.
If the data processing workload is heavy
and time is pressing, assign the relevant
106
departments in Ministry of Water Resources,

China Earthquake Administration, China
Meteorological Administration as well as
universities, research institutions to process
the data, afterward assemble the results,
which will be integrated at the National
Disaster Reduction Center.
5) Convene spatial information technology
experts consultation meeting-analysis
making group
When necessary, the satellite remote sensing
depar tment should organize a spatial
information technology experts negotiation
meeting to discuss the rationality and
credibility of the processing results. And the
experts from National Committee of Disaster
Reduction, Disaster Reduction Satellite Office
and other experts should be invited to analyze
the processing results.
6) Analyze the processed result, make
reportanalysis and report making group
According to the data processing result,
analyze the situation of disaster area and
make reports.
7) Make and issue productproduct issuing
group
After making products, distribute them by
EMAIL, FAX and RTX, intranet and website
before 15 oclock on the same day.
3. Response Terminated
After all these measures being taken, the
workflow will be ended and the response is
thus terminated too.
Figure 6.8 The workflow for making first level response products as response to emergent natural disasters
Table 6.7 Workflow of Department of Satellite Remote Sensing, Ministry of Civil Affairs response
to emergent natural disasters
Fourth grade response
Third grade response
Second grade response
First grade response
Startup situation
Same as the workflow of Ministry of Civil Affairs response to emergent natural disasters
On-duty System
Start-up
Real-time
monitor data
Low- resolution data

(NOAA, MODIS, etc.)
Mid- and lowresolution data

(RADARSAT, ERS,
MODIS, etc.)
Base Data

(NOAA, MODIS, TM,
FY, etc.)

(CBERS, TM, FY,
etc.)
Airborne remote
sensing
Not start-up
High- and midresolution data

(RADARSAT,
ENVISAT, IKONOS,
etc.)
High- resolution data

(ENVISAT, Quickbird,
etc.)
High-, mid- and

lowresolution data
(CBERS, SPOT, TM,
FY, etc.)
High-, mid-, and lowresolution data (SPOT,

IKONOS, CBERS, FY,
etc.)
Start-up
107
Continued
Fourth grade response
Data process
Make the disaster

loss rapid reports
within 8 hours after
disaster occurred, and
update every 48 hours
in the disaster period.
Make comprehensive
assessment products
of disaster losses
when disaster was
over.
Field survey
Product
distribution
Expert
consultation
Make the disaster

risk reports and
disaster situation
trend analysis
products within
4 hours after the
disaster occurred.
Make the disaster
emergency
assistance
assessment reports
disaster occurred.
Make the disaster
loss reports within
8 hours after
disaster occurred,
and update every
24 hours in the
disaster period.
Make
comprehensive
assessment
products of disaster
losses when
disaster was over.
Not start-up
First grade response
Make the disaster

risk reports and
disaster situation
trend analysis
products within
3 hours after the
disaster occurred.
Make the disaster risk

reports and disaster
situation trend analysis
products within 3
hours after the disaster
occurred.
Make the disaster

emergency assistance
assessment reports
disaster occurred.
Make the disaster
loss reports within 6
hours after disaster
occurred, and update
every 12 hours in the
disaster period.
Make comprehensive
assessment products
of disaster losses
when disaster was
over.
Make the disaster

emergency assistance
assessment reports within
4 hours after disaster
occurred.
Make the disaster loss
reports within 6 hours
after disaster occurred,
and update every 8 hours
in the disaster period.
Make comprehensive
assessment products
of disaster losses when
disaster was over.
Start-up
Distribute products by EMAIL, FAX and RTX, intranet and website before 15 o'clock on the same day.
Not start-up
4. Case Study of the Work Mode

Responding to Sudden Natural
Disasters
Generally speaking, people have taken
different measures to address various sudden
108
Second grade response
When necessary, consign the relevant departments

in Ministry of Water Resources, China
Earthquake Administration, China Meteorological
Administration as well as universities, research
institutions to process the data, afterward assemble
the results, which will be integrated unifiedly in
National Disaster Reduction Centre.
Department of Satellite remote sensing,

National Disaster Reduction Centre
Make the disaster risk

reports and disaster
situation trend
analysis products
the disaster occurred.
Response
products
Third grade response
Start-up
natural disasters, but the work modes they

follow have remained similar. Figure 6.9, 6.10,
and 6.11 give a detailed analysis of the work
modes in responding to several major natural
disastersFlood, Earthquake, and Typhoon.
1) Flood Disaster
Indicators considered in Model Model analysisAnalysis product
Figure 6.9 Work Mode of responding to Flood Disaster
109
2) Earthquake Disaster
Figure 6.10 Work Mode of responding to Earthquake Disaster
110
3) Typhoon Disaster
Figure 6.11 Work Mode of responding to Typhoon Disaster
111
Disaster Mitigation Strategies and

Recommendations
As mentioned in previous chapters, the death

toll and economic losses caused by natural
disasters have steadily increased in the past
50 years, causing terrible human suffering
and setting back economic development by
years, particularly in developing countries.
This trend could be reduced through more
effective application of existing scientific and
technological knowledge. Such knowledge
could assist decision-makers to adopt lossreduction policies.
As there is often difficulty in bringing S&T
knowledge to bear on decision-making, IAP
can advocate disaster mitigation research
through its over 100 member academies
and encourage them to establish effective
communication channels with decisionmakers, and promote comprehensive research
programs on natural disaster prevention and
reduction.
Through its network, IAP could enlist the
participation of esteemed scientists and
provide a venue for their interaction with
decision-makers in order to promote better
policies. IAP could facilitate participation by
leading scientists in this process and provide
their expertise to influence governments and
civil society to achieve the goals of disaster
reduction by integrating existing research
from different disciplines into targeted
disaster-reduction activity.
112
7.1 IAP Disaster Mitigation

Strategies
Based on scientific understanding of natural
disasters, the IAP working group on Natural
Disaster Mitigation proposes the following
st rateg ies to IAP memb er academies,
governments, NGOs, related scientists and
policymakers for the next five to ten years
on disaster mitigation using science and
technology.
We recommend:
Each member Academy should formulate
medium and long-term natural disaster
mitigation policies for adoption in their
own countries, emphasising the importance
of science-based decision-making, and
establish a platform of effective communication of these best practices.
IAP promotes workshops and seminars,
especially involving developing countries,
that bring together scientists and decisionmakers to exchange best practice and ideas.
IAP encourages the development of
research into Disaster Science, placing the
understanding of disaster phenomena against
the background of global environmental
change, earth system science and evolution
of the planet, and that natural disaster

mitigation research be carried out in the spirit
of harmony between man and nature.
Member Academies assist in education
and research programs on natural disaster
mitigation in schools and for the general
population with a view to increasing public
awareness of the threat of natural disasters
in their areas.
IAP establishes a Natural Disaster Mitigation
Special Task Force with participation by
member Academies. The Task Force would
be responsible for organizing workshops,
cooperative research programs, information
sharing and exchange, training, and provide
guidance on cutting-edge research.
IAP takes steps to ensure that funding is
provided for international exchange of
scientists, particularly those from nations
with less advanced experience and facilities
IA P i n c r e a s e s c o m mu n i c at i o n a n d
cooperation with relevant organizations
including the International Council for
Science (ICSU), The World Federation
of Engineering Organizations (WFEO),
The Global Earth Observation (GEO)
and International Strategy for Disaster
R e d u c t i on ( I SD R ) f or i n f or m at i on
exchange on effective policies and best
practices of disaster mitigation.
IAP should promote efforts to improve
capacity for disaster monitoring, forecasting and early warning, by integrating the
technologies of spaceborne-airborne-insitu earth observation, data infrastructure,
modelling, and information and communication technology.
IAP should promote scientific and technical
assistance to developing countries lacking

mitigation facilities and capabilities.
IAP should encourage Governments and
Non-Government-Organizations to make
efforts towards bilateral or multilateral
sound policy agreements on disaster
infor mat ion col le c t ion and shar ing
to strengthen cooperation in disaster
management.
7.2 Suggestions to
Scientific Community
IAP member academies should actively make
an effort to organize and participate in all levels
of S & T disaster mitigation programs, e.g.
intergovernmental collaboration programs,
and programs operated from international
and regional foundations, and to undertake
efficient exploration on the cutting-edge
issues regarding S & T disaster mitigation.
The tasks of basic research and multidisciplinary studies on natural disaster
reduction are strongly recommended for
science community as follows:
To identify areas subject to severe natural
disasters against the background of climate
change, to carry out scientific assessment
and analysis with regard to the sensitivity
and fragility of local people to natural
disasters, and taking account of different
levels of social and economic development
and S & T development status;
To conduct further research on the adaptability of human society to severe natural
disasters, and make a comprehensive study
on the adaptability to natural disasters,
taking into account societal sustainable
development issues such as poverty and
113
ecological environment protection;

To take account, on the one hand, of the
destructive side of natural disasters to
human beings and, on the other hand,
of useful resources sometimes created
as a by-product from natural disasters,
to human beings societal development,
and to enhance the applications of earth
observation technology and information
communication (ICT) in disaster mitigation.
7.3 Specific Suggestions on

Major Natural Disaster
Mitigation
According to the statistics in Chapter 1,
among all natural disasters, earthquake, flood,
drought, and storms (hurricane/typhoons)
are the most harmful attacking both poor
and rich countries. Recent unexpected largescale natural disasters led to huge damage to
human lives and wealth. Faced with the high
risk to the human society exposed to major
natural disasters, the scientific community
should shoulder the responsibility to make
greater contributions to natural disaster
mitigation.
On the basis of our knowledge about natural
disasters so far, major natural disasters can
be classified into those whose mechanisms
we know much about, and those about which
not much is clearly understood. For the
disasters whose mechanisms are known
(i.e. typhoon, flood, drought), we must make
efforts to reinforce the capability for disaster
forecasting, pre-warning, disaster reduction
and emergency response. For the disasters
about which many uncertainties remain,
(i.e. earthquake, tsunami), more attention
114
must b e paid to mechanism research,

promotion of pre-warning and emergency
management.
There are still many scientific problems on
major natural disaster mitigation which have
been mentioned in chapters 3 to 6, and the
scientific community should pave the way
for solving those issues. Some important
scientific suggestions will be highlighted here
again because they are the dominant issues in
major natural disaster mitigation.
7.3.1 Suggestions for Mitigation

of Earthquakes and
Tsunamis
S e l e c t t y pi c a l ke y are a or s e c t i on i n
Himalayas-Tethys seismic zone, Eurasia
seismic zone and Circum-Pacific seismic
zone to construct earthquake prediction
experiment field, combine premonition
forecast and earthquake prediction, carry
out various kinds of monitoring including
cross brand new active fault deformation
measurement, GPS cr ust deformation
measurement, circulating geomagnetism
and gravity measurement, magnetic storm
and ground electricity measurement, ground
stress measurement, temperature abnormity
and remote sensing hot infrared monitoring,
and middle and small earthquake monitoring,
undertake extraction and recognition
of abnormal premonition and establish
recognition marks of various abnormal
premonition of earthquake.
1. Study on Basic Theory and Warning
Technology for Tsunami
Accurate tsunami warning is a basic task
for disaster emergenc y response. It is
important to undertake further research on
the mechanism and warning technology of

tsunami, especially the quantitative evaluation
and prediction model of tsunami, and
warning technology.
2. Strengthen Capability of Tsunami
Forecast and Information Sharing
Set tsunami monitoring float marker arrays
in area at risk of tsunami; increase tide level
monitor stations and earthquake monitor
stations on islands and coasts; set ground
wave radar covering important coasts; and
strengthen the remote sensing monitoring
capability construction of oceanographic
satellite to form global three-dimensional
sea monitoring capability. In order to fulfill
the demand for prompt observation data
by tsunami prevention and relief workers,
w e mu s t e s t ab l i s h a t s u n am i prompt
observation data sharing mechanism as
soon as possible.
7.3.2 Suggestions for Mitigation

of Typhoon Disaster
Some important recommendations and
measures to mitigate typhoon or hurricane
disasters are:
1. Enhancement of Monitoring System of
Typhoon and Disaster
Earth observational technology could play
a very important role in typhoon/hurricane
m on it or i n g l o c at i on an d pre d i c t i on ,
contributing to disaster preparedness and
prevention. Satellite data and ground-based
radar data together with GPS information
are of great help in defining the intensity,
position, and extent of a hurricane. The
modern monitoring system should be
strengthened and developing countries
should be given timely assistance.
2. Strengthen Research on Typhoon/

Hurricane Theory and Hi-tech Method
for Monitoring
The theoretical research and operational
forecasting of typhoon/hurricane and
storm surge still face many difficulties
and challenges, such as the forecast of the
sudden change of direction and speed of
typhoon, sudden change of structure and
intensity and sudden increase of landing
typhoons and tropical storms. They all still
lack very effective methods. The theoretical
research of typhoon (hurricanes) and
storm surges need to be strengthened in
the future.
Urgent ly promote res e arch on d at a
inversion technology and data assimilation
by use of meteorological satellite and
Doppler weather radar;
Develop key monitoring technologies and
predicting methods for determining the
location, intensity and trends of tropical
cyclone.
7.3.3 Specific Suggestions for

Mitigation of Flood and
Drought
1. Strengthening Comprehensive Studies
on Flood and Drought Mitigation
In ord e r to att ai n f l o o d and d rou g ht
mitigation strategies, we need to promote
cross disciplinary and systematic integrated
research, to incorporate related sciences
in the development of flood and drought
disaster mitigation, and provide sciencebased support and theoretical foundations
for flood and drought mitigation and disaster
management. The comprehensive scientific
system should be set up based on further
115
studies and modern technologies.

2. Developing better Water Regulation
Models of Risk Management for Flood
and Drought
The basic goal for conducting research in
determining characteristics of risk and
strengthening the risk management in flood
and drought disastesr is to seek more a
comprehensive water-regulation model that
can prove to provide long-term benefits.
116
Such a model can help to define how to reach

harmonious coexistence among humans,
nature, and flood/drought. Research efforts
could determine how to combine engineering
and non-engineering measures organically,
which means to promote an engineering
system that is based on more scientific
standards, reasonably planned, and is safe
and reliable through integration of legislative,
administrative, economic, technological and
educational procedures.
Annex 1 Global Natural Disaster and

Disaster Reduction Survey
Figure 1 The survey table published in the website
117
Table 1 lists some survey questions and
Glob a l Natura l Dis aster and Dis aster
response options for the IAP Initiative
Redution (also see Figure 1).
Table 1 Global Natural Hazards and Disaster Reduction

1. How do you value scientific research in Global Natural Disaster (GND) and Disaster Reduction (DR)?
(1) not important
(2) not very important
(3) important
(4) very important
(5) Critical Role
(6) please list other factors you consider important
2. Are there any national research programs on natural disaster mitigation in your country? If so, please list five scientific
research programs regarding the GND and DR in your country
(1) Typhoon research
(2) Earth quake damage research
(3) Flood control
(4) Drought relieve
(5) Land slide control
3. Have any international co-operation programs in which your country participates, or have any international
collaboration projects on natural disaster mitigation been conducted in your country? If so, please list the countries you
collaborate with.
4. Please list five organizations engaged in the GND and DR in your country
(1) National Science Council
(2) Academia Sinica
(3) Central Weather Bureau
(4) Water Resources Bureau
(5) Universities
5. Do you consider that your government provides sufficient financial support for S&T studies on natural disaster mitigation?
6. Please give an official estimate of the economic loss (in US dollars) caused by natural disasters on average per year in
your country over the last 50 to 100 years?
7. Would you mark (from 1 6, 1 being the least severe and 6 the most severe) the order of severity in the following
disaster types in your country? (The severity is determined by economic damage and the disasters occurring frequency)
Earthquakes
Floods
Droughts
Forestry Fires
Storms
Tsunamis
118
Continued
8. What kinds of public awareness and training programs concerning natural disasters have been conducted in your
country in recent years, and how many people have been trained?
9. What are the statistical standards about natural disaster data in your country? Is the scientific metadata shared in
your country? Could international researchers obtain disaster data (economic damage, death toll, disaster types, disaster
occurring frequency, etc.) from your country?
10. In the procedure of disaster mitigation, please list the major technological facilities used for monitoring and early
warning.
11. (I) Please give brief information of the remote sensing data requirements in the systems used in your country.
(II) To whom do you report ?
(To the government)
12. Is there any organizational structure for handling disaster issues in your country (at government, provincial, local
levels)? Has an emergency response system been set up in your country?
13. How is disaster research organized and financed?
14. Can you give 1-2 typical cases in your country? And whats your general opinion on NDM in your country or region?
15. Are there other factors in relation to GDR and DR that should be taken into account?
119
Annex 2 Analyses on the Responses of

the Questionnaire about
Natural Disaster Mitigation
In order to find out the global situation of
natural disaster mitigation, we drew up a
questionnaire on global natural hazards
and disaster reduction, and sent it to the
member academies of IAP with the help
of IAP Secretariat in May 2007. By far, we
have received 14 answers from Albania,
Argentina, Australia, Cuba, Greece, India,
Jamaica, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand,
Pakistan, China, Sweden and Chinese Taipei.
Because of the relatively small number of
IAP member academies which responded
to the questionnaire, it is not possible
to draw detailed conclusions about each
countrys attitude and activities on natural
disaster reduction research, but the results
of this survey do provide an indication of
the seriousness with which this subject
is regarded within scientific circles, and
official awareness of the serious economic

consequences of natural disasters. The
investigation has 15 questions in 5 categories
(see Annex 1). The analysis of the responses
to the questionnaire is detailed as follows.
1 The Evaluations of the

Significance of Natural
Disaster Mitigation
Table 1 displays the governmental evaluations
of the significance of Natural Disaster
Mitigation from the 14 countries and regions.
All of them highly value the role of natural
disaster mitigation in their socio-economical
development.
Table 1 The evaluations of the significance of Natural Disaster Mitigation

Country
Cuba
India
Malaysia
Argentina
Jamaica
Japan
Chinese Taipei
China
Greece
Albania
Australia
New Zealand
Pakistan
Sweden
120
Importance
Critical Role
Critical Role
Critical Role
Critical Role
Critical Role
Critical Role
Critical Role
Critical Role
Very Important
Very Important
Very Important
Very Important
Very Important
Very Important
Figure 1 of the statistical pie shows their

general attitudes towards the scientific
research on natural disaster mitigation. 8
in 14 (57%) countries or regions regard
scientific research on global natural disaster
mitigation as the most important role, and
0, 0%
6 in 14 (43%) countries or regions think the

scientific studies are very important. We
can easily conclude that scientific research
plays such a crucial role in natural disaster
reduction that many governments are
paying much attention to it.
Count
0, 0%
Critical Role
very important
6, 43%
not important
not very important
important
8, 57%
very important
Critical Role
Figure 1 The statistical result of the appraisement for the scientific research on natural disaster mitigation
2 The Assessments of the

Severity and the Property
Losses of the Major
Natural Disasters
On statistical view of disastrous losses,
earthquake disaster is the most severe
one; tsunami is in the second place, then
floods, and then storm disasters. Because of
the geological and natural environmental
diversities, the severity degrees of the major

disasters are varied. For example, Japan is on
the geological faults, and earthquake is the
most severe catastrophe; but stockbreeding
is ver y important to Australian socioeconomics, so the drought is paid much
more attention to. Table 2 unveils the severity
grades of major natural disasters in 14
countries or regions, there are 6 increasing
grades of severity, 1 for the lowest risk while 6
stands for the highest risk.
121
Table 2 The estimation of severity grades of major natural disasters in different nations or regions
Country/region
Storm
Flood
Drought
Forest Fire
Earthquake
Tsunamis
Cuba
India
Greece
Malaisia
Argentina
Albania
Australia
Jamaica
Japan
New Zealand
Pakistan
Sweden
Chinese Taipei
China
6
5
4
3
2
Storm
Flood
Drought
Forest Fire
Earthquake
Tsunamis
1
0
China
Chinese Taipei
Sweden
Pakistan
New Zealand
Japan
Jamaica
Australia
Albania
Argentina
Malaisia
Greece
India
Cuba
Figure 2 The risk grades distribution of the major natural disasters
Figure 2 displays the facts of the risk

assessment results of the major natural
disasters in 6 grades, which obviously
encloses that the inland countries suffer
from drought and earthquake the most,
the ocean surrounding countries or coastal
regions afflicted mostly by storms, floods
122
and tsunamis. So the issues and natural

phenomena they care much more about in
the process of natural disaster mitigation or
in the related research work are very distinct
for different countries or regions. Table 3
supports the fact.
Table 3 Issues and phenomena critically concerned by the 14 countries or regions

Country
Dominantly concerned issues and natural phenomena
Cuba
storms, flooding, climate change
India
Geological faults, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides
Greece
earthquakes, geochemistry
Malaysia
earthquakes, tsunamis
Argentina
earthquakes
Albania
earthquakes, floods, landslides, forest fire, epidemics
Australia
S&T in natural disaster mitigation
Jamaica
Position of disaster by GPS, Climate change, coastal disasters
Japan
earthquakes, flooding, storms, stormy snows
New Zealand
volcanoes, earthquakes, technical criteria of earthquakes, emergency response of

aquatics-breeding, biographical diversity, climate change, energy resources, water
Pakistan
storms, earthquakes, flooding
Sweden
storms, flooding
Chinese Taipei
earthquakes, typhoons, flooding, mud-rock flows
China
earthquakes, typhoons, flooding, mud-rock flows, drought
The annual average economic losses caused

by major natural disasters are not provided
by most of the countries (Albania, Australia,
Jamaica, Japan, New Zealand, Pakistan,
Sweden), several countries offered the estimated
figures of economic losses, such as (USD)$10
billion per year in Australia, $145~150 million
annually in Argentina, $2~10 million in Malaysia,
$25-30 billion annually in China, and more than
$10 billion USD per year in Chinese Taipei; Cuba
experiencing life loss per year is very low but no
figure of economic losses caused by disasters
attacked here.
3 Researches on Natural
Disaster Reduction: the
Programmes of Inner
Countries or Regions
and the International
Cooperation
The organization and financial support of
research work on natural disaster mitigation:

according to most of the answers, the
research programs are organized and invested
by governments, and there also are private
enterprises aid the researches in Japan. The
institutions involved in research programs
of natural disaster mitigation include the
agencies in charge of the management of the
major natural disasters including earthquakes,
flooding, storms, etc., universities and academies
of sciences (or scientific associations).
Research programs: research programs related
to the major disasters (earthquake, floods,
storms, tsunamis) and the pre-warning systems
for the disastrous natural phenomena.
Financial investments on research of natural
disaster mitigation: most of the countries
and regions (India, Greece, Malaysia,
Australia, Pakistan, Chinese Taipei think
the investments on research work of natural
disaster mitigation are suf f icient and
sustainable. Cuba thinks its government pays
much more attentions to engineering and
123
non-engineering countermeasures, but few

financial support for research work on natural
disaster mitigation; Japanese says government
has invested a lot on studies of disaster
predictions but very adequate support for
research on disaster reduction; New Zealand
government funds are allocated according
to national priorities, and natural hazards is
among the national top 12 priorities. Chinese
Taipei doesnt think the local government has
sufficient funds available for research projects
N/A, 1, 7%
on natural disaster mitigation; Sweden Royal

Academy points out the recent support for
research programs of storms and floods grows
up. China central government begins to
increase the funds to support institutions for
their research on natural disaster reduction,
and invest on establishment of Asian Regional
Research Center for major natural disasters and
relevant international co-operational projects of
major natural disasters mitigation. Figure 3 and
Table 4 visualize the statistics of funds status.
count
increasing, 1,
7%
strengthen, 1,
7%
enough
enough, 6,
43%
not enough
strengthen
increasing
N/A
not enough, 5,
36%
Figure 3 The statistic pie chart for the status of funds on research programs of NDM
Table 4 The status of the funds for natural disaster mitigation research
Country/regions
124
Status
Cuba
not enough
India
enough
Greece
enough
Malaisia
enough
Argentina
not enough
Albania
not enough
Australia
enough
Jamaica
not enough
Japan
strengthen
New Zealand
N/A
Pakistan
enough
Sweden
increasing
Chinese Taipei
adequate
China
Not enough, increasing
The standards of disaster data and data share:

Most of the countries or regions have very
sound criteria for disaster data collection
and processing, and the disaster information
is open and shared. New Zealand has not
started the open access to the disaster data.
etc. China is establishing an Asian Research

Center of Major Natural Disaster Mitigation,
which is a good coordination platform for
Asian regional cooperation in natural disaster
mitigation.
International collaborations in natural

disaster mitigation: Most of the nations or
regions have many international cooperation
projects and good international companions,
the programs focus on volcanoes, earthquake,
floods, tsunamis, and climate change. For
instance, much of NZ research is undertaken
with international collaboration, New
Zealand contributes to the International
Geosphere Biosphere (Global Change) Project
via a Committee of the Council of the Royal
Society of New Zealand (the academy of
sciences). The committee comprises scientists
undertaking research under the aegis of
IGBP; in Sweden, most projects are linked to
international co-operation, and collaborations
are within the UN framework (ISDR) and
the EU: European L arge Geotechnical
Institutes Platform; Less Loss-Risk mitigation
for earthquakes and land-slides; MessinaMonitoring European Shoreline; Preview
Geo-Information Services for Natural and
Industrial Risk; Japan has many international
collaboration projects on natural disaster
mitigation collaborated with Turkey, the
Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and China.
China has many internationally cooperated
programs of natural disaster mitigation,
such as China/UK Scientific Cooperation
Project, Scenario Analysis Technology for
Flood Risk Management in the Taihu Basin,
Sino-UK Cooperation Project, Impact
Research of Climate Change in China, SinoUS, China/Canada, China-Korea, SinoJapan Co-operations on Climate Change,
and dust storm transportation, natural
disaster mitigation, environment protection,
4 Education of Disaster
Reduction and the
Construction of
Emergency Response
System
Education of natural disaster mitigation: Most

of the countries and regions have conducted
very effective educations of disaster prevention
and mitigation, for instance, activities are wellorganized and carried out by governments such
as educating people; courses in educational TV;
good and efficient use of the media, mainly
radio and TV in dissemination of information
and education; good and reliable forecasts in
which people trust; Civil Defense actions with
plans for evacuation, if needed, well ahead of
the disasters.
Emergency response system construction:
Almost all the countries or regions have set
up the professional emergency management
agencies from central to local governments;
some countries have developed science and
technology information and early-warning
systems for emergency response.
Information collections and distributions: All
the answers tell that the disaster information
can be collected in real time and reported to
responsible authorities of the governments and
to the disaster-affected area in time, then the
warnings and prediction information will be
transmitted to people on the risks through radio,
TV broadcasting system, telecommunication
system, public messages spread amongst crowds.
125
5 Typical Disaster Cases

and Comments on
Global Natural Disaster
Situation in the Future
Cases from Cuba: The Cuban Government
pays much attention not only to nonengineering countermeasures, but also to
engineering countermeasures such as better
building codes in new houses and building
of dams to prevent floods and exercising
water conservancy for droughts periods.
Financial support is not enough due to the
economic situation of the country, but every
cent is used in the most efficient way. The
nation does very well in public education and
information transition, such as courses on
tropical cyclones through Educational TV,
awareness campaigns, national exercise every
year just before the onset of the hurricane
season, weather forecasts and warnings in
simple words by meteorologists on radio and
TV. So the amount of lives lost in hurricanes
is the lowest in the Caribbean area, including
the USA coast. Major hurricanes Michelle
(2001), Charley and Ivan (2004) are very
good examples of it.
Cases from New Zealand: Some areas of
natural disaster reduction are well managed,
the best example being the Ruapehu Lahar,
which was successfully diverted from the
Tongariro catchment (on which a power
station lies and from which water flows
126
into Lake Taupo). The diversion was done

by building a bund (long earthen mound)
and the lahar flowed into the Whangaehu
River. Monitoring devices enabled prior
warning and road & rail closures that
prevented personal injury. Some natural
disasters are poorly managed, including
infrastructure outages after severe storms.
Because power and telephone supply is not
run by government, but by organizations
with shareholders, there is little incentive for
extensive risk management or preparedness.
The 5-week Auckland power outage in
February 1998 is an example, where hot
weather caused 1/4 of the power cables to fail.
However, the remaining three cables failed
within a month, possibly due to overload,
necessitating an emergency power line to be
constructed to the central business district,
which took several weeks. When multiple
power lines were broken by winter storms
in 2006 (1000 Canterbury homes went for
two weeks without power), it was a timeconsuming task to effect repairs, mainly due
to continuing cold and snowy weather.
C omments on g lob a l natura l dis aster
situation in the future: Most of the countries
and regions think the climate change will
bring about extreme weather and disasters
with higher intensity and higher frequency
as much more involvement of powerful
destroyers. Global warming will cause rise of
sea level, floods will inundate many nice and
important places with high population and
economic density.
Annex 3 Glossary
ACDR
ADAA
Asian Conference on Disaster Reduction
EO
Earth Observation
Australian Development Assistance
EOS
Earth Observation Satellites
Agency
ESA
European Space Agency
ESCAP
Social Commission for Asia and the
ADPC
The Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
ADRC
Asian Disaster Reduction Center
ALOS
The Advanced Land Observing Satellite
ESSP
Earth System Science Partnership
AMDAR
Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay
ETRP
Education and Training Programme
AMP
Applications of Meteorology Programme
EU
European Union
AREP
The Atmospheric Research and
EWC
International Early Warning Conference
Environment Programme
FAO
Food and Agriculture Organization of the
Pacific
United Nations
ARF
ASEAN Regional Forum
ASEAN
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
FEMA
Federal Emergency Management Agency
AVHRR
Advanced Very High Resolution
FEWS
Famine Early Warning System
Radiometer
GDACS
Global Disaster Alert and Coordination
AVNIR-2
System
Advanced Visible and Near Infrared

Radiometer type 2
GEO
Group on Earth Observations
GEOSS
Global Earth Observation System of
BEST
Basic Envisat SAR Toolbox
CAS
Chinese Academy of Sciences
CCD
Charge Coupled Device
GFDL
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
CEODE
Center for Earth Observation and Digital
GHG
Greenhouse Gases
Earth
GIS
Geographic Information Systems
GMS
Geostationary Meteorological Satellite
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental
CEOS
Committee on Earth Observation

Satellites
CGMS
Co-ordination Group for Meteorological

Satellites
CMA
China Meteorological Administration
CNES
Centre National d'Etudes spatiales
CNSA
China National Space Administration
CODATA
Committee on Data for Science and

Technology, ICSU
CONAE
Argentine Space Agency
CRInSAR
Corner Reflector InSAR
CSA
Canadian Space Agency
CT
Computerized Tomography
DCP
Data Collection Platforms
DMCii
DMC International Imaging Ltd
DMISCO
Disaster Management International Space

Coordination Organization
ECF
European Community Fund
Systems
Satellites
GOS
Global Observing System
GPS
Global Positioning System
GSHAP
Global Seismic Hazard Assessment

Program
GWP
Global Water Partnership
HFA
Hyogo Framework for Action
HFCS
Hydrofluorocarbons
HWRP
Hydrology and Water Resources

Programme
IAP
InterAcademy Panel on International

Issues
IATF/DR
Inter-Agency Task Force for Disaster

Reduction
IBRD
International Bank for Reconstruction

and Development
127
ICDO
International Civil Defence Organisation
ICDRR
International Center for drought
ICHARM
NOAA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration
mitigation risk
NRT
Near real time
International Centre for Water Hazard
NWP
Numerical Weather Prediction
and Risk Management
OCHA
Office of Coordination of Humanitarian
ICRC
International Committee of the Red Cross
ICSU
International Council for Science
OSOCC
On-site Operations Coordination Center
ICT
Information Communication Technology
PALSAR
Phased Array type L-band Synthetic
IDDR
International Day for Disaster Reduction
IDNDR
International Decade for Natural Disaster
PFCS
Perfluorocompounds
Reduction
PGA
Polygalacturonic Acid Trans.
International Disaster Reduction
PRISM
Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument
IDRC
Affairs, UN
Aperture Radar
Conference
IMO
for Stereo Mapping
International Meteorological
PSInSAR
Permanent Scatterer InSAR
Organization
PSIR
Pressure-State-Impact- Response
International Search and Rescue Advisory
RP
Regional Programme
Group
RS
Remote Sensing
IOC
India Ocean Commission
RSMC
Regional Specialized Meteorological
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
INSARAG
Center
Change
SAR
Synthetic Aperture Radar
Infrared
SCA
Science Council of Asia
IRCC
Inter-Regional Co-ordinating. Committee
SF6
Sulfur hexafluoride gas
ISRO
Indian Space Research Organization
SHIFOR
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast
ISDR
International Strategy for Disaster
SHIPS
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction
IR
Scheme
Reduction
ITU
International Telecommunication Union
SID
Satellite Image Database
IWTC
International Workshop on Tropical
SSM/I
Special Sensor Microwave Imager
Cyclones
TCOP
Technical Cooperation Programme
JAXA
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
TOMS
Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer
JMA
Japan Meteorological Agency
TOVS
TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder
LEO
Low Earth Orbit
UN/ISDR
Inter-Agency Secretariat of the
LOS
Look of Sight
International Strategy for Disaster
Ms
Earthquake scale
Reduction
MSG
Meteosat Second Generation
MTP
Meteosat Transition Programme
NADM
North American Drought Monitor
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
NASA
National Aeronautics and Space
UNEP
United Nations Environment Program
Administration
UNESCAP
United Nations Economic and Social
NASDA
NATO
North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NFP
National Focal Points
NGDC
National Geophysical Data Center
NGO
Non-government organization
NHC
US National Hurricane Center
United Nations Disaster Assessment and

Coordination
National Space Development Agency of

Japan
128
UNDAC
Commission for Asia and the Pacific

UNESCO
United Nations Educational, Scientific

and Cultural Organization
UNICEF
United Nations International Children's

Fund
UNIDO
United Nations Industrial Development

Organization
UNOCHA
United Nations Office for the
WCDR
World Conference on Disaster Reduction
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
WCP
World Climate Programme
UNOOSA
UN Office for Outer Space Affairs
WFEO
World Federation of Engineering
UN-SPIDER
United Nations Platform for Space-based

Information for Disaster Management
WFP
Organizations
World Food Programme
and Emergency Response
WHO
World Health Organization
USGS
United States Geological Survey
WMO
World Meteorological Organization
UV
Ultraviolet
WSSD
The World Summit on Sustainable
VAAC
Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre
VHR
Very High Resolution
Development
129
Annex 4 Wenchuan Earthquake

Disaster Mitigation
A strong quake measuring 8.0 on the
Richter scale jolted Wenchuan County in
southwest Chinas Sichuan Province on May
12, 2008. Tremors were felt in all provinces,
autonomous regions and municipalities
in China except northeastern Jilin and
Heilongjiang provinces and northwestern
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
The quake caused deaths, injuries, cut off
electricity, communications, transportation
and water supplies. The disaster not only
devastated lives and livelihoods, but also
destroyed services and infrastructures.
Official figures from the Ministry of Civil
Affairs of China (as of July 21, 2008 12:00
Chinese Standard Time) stated that 69,197
were confirmed dead, including 68,636 in
Sichuan province, and 374,176 people were
injured, with 18,222 listed as missing. The
earthquake left about 4.8 million people
homeless, though the number could be as
high as 11 million. Approximately 15 million
people lived in the affected area. It was the
most deadly earthquake to hit China since
the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake, which killed
at least 240,000 people and the strongest since
the 1950 Chayu Earthquake in the country,
which registered at 8.5 on the Richter
magnitude scale. The direct losses exceeded
845.1 billion RMB (126 billion US Dollars).
Strong aftershocks, some exceeding
magnitude 6, continued to hit the area even
months after the main quake, causing new
casualties and damage. On November 6, 2008,
130
the central government announced that it will

spend one trillion yuan (about $146.5 billion)
over the next three years to rebuild the areas
ravaged by the earthquake.
When the tremor hit the area, the roads were
blocked; telecommunications were down;
secondary calamities frequently occurred and
meteorological conditions were very bad. All
this resulted in great difficulties for timely
acquiring of information and collection of
first-hand, on-the-spot data. There were many
serious and difficult problems at that time for
decision-making during rescue and disasterrelief operations because of the unknown
situations. Urgently extending earthquakecalamities monitoring and disaster conditions
assessment were ver y important to the
scientific support of decision-making of the
rescue and disaster-relieving operations.
The Emergency Headquarters of Remote
Sensing for Anti-Quake and Disaster-Relief
was launched immediately and the Working
Group of Remote S ensing Monitoring
and Assessment of the Conditions of the
Wenchuan Earthquake Disasters was set up
by researchers from seven different institutes.
In the first instance, a procedure for acquiring
the data from remote sensing satellites was
initiated; two high-altitude airplanes were
operated for obtaining the high-resolution
optical and radar data. The acquired air
and space-borne data were distributed
internationally according to the International
Charter on Space and Major Disasters,
constituting a unified grid system with allweather and all-day-long observation.
1 Role of Earth Observation

1.1 Earth Observation Data
Used in Mitigation
Earth Observation technology played an
active role in monitoring the Wenchuan quake
and disaster situation assessment, and the data
has been recorded for permanent retention.
This includes the unique instantaneous
pre-quake and post-quake landscapes. For
the earthquake disaster monitoring and
mitigation, we used the archived image data
including CBERS, IRS-P6, Landsat 5, SPOT
5, SPOT 2, SPOT 4, Quickbird, IKONOS,
and RADARSAT 1 assembling a total set of
96 scenes of the quake hit-area before the
earthquake happened.
Immediately after the tremor hit, international
communities and space agencies responded
quickly. According to the International
Charter on Space and Major Disasters,
Charter members supply imagery in support
of earthquake disaster monitoring and
mitigation, and relief operations. Scientists
from Australia, Canada and EU at once
doubled their efforts to aid in evaluating the
disaster. The received international assistance
of space-borne remote sensing data for the
Post-quake area during May 12 to 31 included
the following:
ASTER, 84 scenes, Landsat TM 8 scenes,
IKONOS 6 scenes, WORLDVIEW, 29
scenes from the United States of America
ALOS, 83 scenes from Japan
Terra SAR-X, 9 scenes from Germany
EROS-B, 7 scenes from Israel

COSMOS, 9 scenes from Italy
CEODE sent two Remote Sensing aircrafts to
the earthquake affected areas. One was with
optical sensors and the other with SAR. The
two Remote Sensing aircrafts flew 227 hours
from May 14 to June 5, 2008. They acquired
18.5 TB SAR data (X-Band) which covered
more than 40,000 km2 and 5.3 TB optical data,
which covered some 20,000 km2, respectively.
The following map shows the data coverage of
the earthquake hit area (Figure 1).
1.2 Emergency System and

Information for DecisionMaking
The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
gave full play to its comprehensive remote
sensing techniques and talented scientists
by immediately launching the Emergency
Headquarter of Remote Sensing for Earthquake
Resistance and Disaster Relief. A Special
Team of Remote Sensing Monitoring and
Assessment for Wenchuan Earthquake
Disaster was set up by experts from seven
CAS institutes, including the Center for Earth
Observation and Digital Earth, Institute
of Electronics, Institute of Remote Sensing
Applications, Institute of Geographic Sciences
and Natural Resources Research, Institute of
Geology and Geophysics, Chengdu Institute
of Mountain Hazards and Environment, and
the Research Center for Eco-Environmental
Sciences. Thus remote sensing on the quake
disaster was extended on all fronts.
Within the following one month, this Team
had taken advantage of two Large-Scale
Scientific Facilities (China Remote Sensing
Satellite Ground Station and the High-altitude
Remote Sensing Airplanes) to give full play
to the strengths and abilities. Work was
131
1030'E
330'N
10330'E
1040'E
10430'E
1050'E
10530'E
1060'E
330'N
W
S
Songpan County
3230'N
Qingchuan County
Pingwu County
Guangyuan City
3230'N
Heishui County
320'N
Beichuan County
Jiangyou City
320'N
Jiange County
Maoxian County
3130'N
Zitong County
Anxian
Lixian
3130'N
Mianyang City
Mianzhu City
Luojiang City
Shifang City
Deyang City
Wenchuan County
Dujiangyan CityPengzhou City
310'N
Legend
Guanghan City
County boundary
1030'E
10330'E
15
30
1040'E
60
90
10430'E
120
310'N
Flight area
km
1050'E
10530'E
1060'E
Figure 1 The flight area of the two Remote Sensing aircrafs from May 14 to June 5, 2008
immediately initiated to acquire data from

earth observation satellites and two highaltitude airplanes took off for obtaining highresolution optical and radar data. On-the-spot
investigations were carried out promptly. A
unified, all-weather day and night monitoring
grid was formed with space, air and in-situ
observing capacities.
A series of analysis reports were made from
analyzing, collecting, transferring, processing,
interpreting remote sensing data and images.
Those reports were immediately submitted
t o t h e He a d q u a r t e r s f o r E a r t h q u a k e
Resistance and Disaster Relief of China, at
both ministerial and provincial levels. The
dedicated work provided convincing evidence
for decision-making. At the same time,
co-organized by the Ministry of Science and
Technology (MOST) and Chinese Academy
of Sciences (CAS), a data sharing mechanism
was formed in a meeting attended by
representatives from 13 ministries, which was
hosted by the Center for Earth Observation
and Digital Earth (CEODE).
132
2 Earthquake Disaster
Mitigation
2.1 Geological Disaster
Due to the unique geological and geographic
condition in Wenchuan, the earthquake
i n du c e d l arge nu mb e rs of s e c on d ar y
geological disasters, such as landslide,
landslip, and debris flow, which not only
led to heavy casualties and financial loss,
but also severely damaged the roads, rivers,
engineering projects, farmlands, and forests.
The emergence and development of the
earthquake accompanied with the destruction
of vegetation, landform, rock, soil, and other
natural elements, are the major causes of the
change in the color and texture shown in
the remote sensing images. According to the
statistics, the earthquake ruptured a large area
of approximately 29,000 km2. The geological
disaster covers an area of 2,250 km2, which is
7.8 % of the total area.
The planar feature of the distribution of
landslide, landslip, and debris flow, is a strip

along the river incision valley and the area
with major human engineering activities,
which were mainly located in the valleys of
the Minjiang River, the Jianjiang River, and
their tributaries. The vertical distribution
feature is mainly distributed in the elevation
of 800-1,500 m, especially in the elevation
of 800-1,200 m.
The areas hit by the quake have been
severely uplifted by the tectonic movements
and formed deep incised valleys, which
have the characteristics of steep slopes,
large catchment area of valley, and wide
distribution of quaternary stratum. These
features give good opportunities for the
prediction of the future occurrence of
geologic disasters. The main geologic
disasters have occurred at the slopes of 20
degree and above (mainly convex slope),
especially at the slopes that are flat in the
upper part and steep in the lower part and
which are close to the river and road. The
phyllite and slate are both easy to be air
slaked. The hard terrain caused the growth
of crannys and is easy to form big rocks.
The hard layers alternative with soft ones,
are more easily to be wholly destroyed and
formed loose materials consisted of not
only big rocks but also debris. Because of
the gravitation, all of the airslaked materials
of base rock have been accumulated at the
slope, which are the origin materials of
landslide and debris flow. Hard or semihard layers, such as quartz sandstone and
limestone, which have good fissurings, are
easy to form landslip in the steep valleys
due to unloading. There have been potential
landslide bodies in both banks of the
valley. When the landslip rocks covered on
these potential landslides, the landslides
lost balance and caused big landslip body
together with the earthquake vibration.
Because of the extreme earthquake shake,

the unstable slopes and potential landslide
bodies formed landslides. In this Wenchuan
Earthquake, there were few single landslides.
Because rainstorms did not occur during this
earthquake, there were not large mudslides,
but more debris flow.
From Figure 2 we can see that the vegetation
was destroyed seriously on both banks of
Minjiang River and its tributaries. The groups
of clastic flows, formed alongside slope,
seriously threaten the safety of the riverway,
the roads and buildings. Many buildings had
been destroyed, the roads had been washed
off, and riverways were narrowed by the
alluvial materials. Clastic flows in Wenchuan
County by the earthquake can be seen from
photos in Figure 3.
A n i nt e r f e r o g r a m o f A L O S PA L S A R
images was obtained on February 17 and
May 19, 2008 (see Figure 4). There is a
large deformation along the center fault
of Longmengshan mountain (YingxiuBeichuang fault), causing decorrelation of the
interferogram. Together with the information
of fault distribution from ground survey, it
shows that most of the areas had subsidence
whose scale was from centimeters to meters.
There are two deformation centers within
Beichuan County and Mianzhu County, with
the deformation being over 1m. Since the rock
area is stable in south plain area, the fringes
are relatively continuous. The mountain area
is located in the north of the fault. The fringes
are fractal since the extrusion of the Tibetan
Plateau.
As s h ow n i n F i g u re 4 , t h e re i s a bi g
deformation along the center fault of
Longmen mountain (YingXiu-Beichuan
fault), causing decorrelation of the
interferogram. Together with the information
133
Figure 2 Airborne remote sensing optical imagery of Wenchuan County
Figure 3 Photos of clastic flows in Wenchuan County by the earthquake
of fault distribution from ground survey, it

shows subsidence in most of the area, the
scale is about centimeters to meters and
there are two deformation centers within
Beichuan County and Mianzhu County. The
LOS deformation is beyond one meter. Since
the rock area is stable at the south plain area,
the fringes are relatively continuous, but in
the mountain area which is located north of
the fault, the fringes are fractal owing to the
extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau.
134
2.2 Barrier Lakes

A Barrier Lake is formed by the accumulation
of water while the river valley or river bed
is blocked by large scale of landslide. The
dam is unstable and it might be washed-out,
corroded, dissolved or dilapidated. The water
level of the barrier lake might increase fast,
which will bring more potential risks with
common appearance of secondary disasters.
It will cause large scale of flood disasters once
the dam is destroyed.
10417'29"E
10347'29"E
10447'29"E
Songpan County
Qingchuan County
328'9"N
328'9"N
Songpan County
Jiangyou County
Lo
ng
s
en
Zitong County
ha
3138'9"N
3138'9"N
Mao County
Mianyang City
Shifang County
318'9"N
318'9"N
Mianzhu County
Santai County
Pengzhou County
Shehong County
Pi County
Xindu Dist. Chengdu
Jintang County
Qingbaijiang Dist. Chengdu
10417'29"E
10347'29"E
0
11.8cm
10447'29"E
0 5 10
20
30
kilometers
40
Figure 4 Interferogram of ALOS PALSAR images
There were lots of barrier lakes formed by

Wenchuan Earthquake, which brought huge
risks to the downstream area of the lakes
(see Figure 5, 6). Analysis and evaluation of
remote sensing images provided a scientific
basis to harness the barrier lake. The optical
image is intuitive and easy to understand,
while the radar image has the observation
ability in all-weather conditions. 46 barrier
lakes were interpreted all over the disaster
area. In this section we provide parts of

space-borne and airborne high quality remote
sensing images about barrier lakes, including
optical images with different resolution and
radar images with different resolutions and
polarization, such as space-borne IKONOS,
SPOT, Terra-SAR, R adarSat1/2SAR,
Cosmos-SkymedSAR, etc., and airborne
multi-polarization SAR and optical images
with the spatial resolution of 0.5 meters.
135
2.3 Ruined Houses and

Buildings
The Wenchuan Earthquake and the secondary
disasters induced by the earthquake caused
widespread collapse of houses, great loss of
property, lives and huge casualties. Housing
collapse was monitored and estimated in this
chapter, based on airborne optical images.
Airborne radar and optical remote sensing
images of the strong earthquake-hit region
were acquired during May 15-28, and these
images covered 14 counties, including:
Wenchuan, Beichuan, Mianyang, Shifang,
Qingchuan, Maoxian, Anxian, Dujiangyan,
Pingwu, Pengzhou, Lixian, Jiangyou and
Guang yuan. To improve the accurac y
of house collapse rate, the high-spatial
satellite data such as, IKONOS, Quickbird,
WorldView, and SPOT5 before and after
earthquake were applied, and high-spatial
airborne SAR images were also used in the
interpretation.
Firstly, the unified standard of visual image
interpretation was established. All the
house collapse rate was extracted under
this standard. House collapse in all towns
of Mianyang city and Anxian County were
retrieved in detail. Then, sample survey
analysis was implemented in 102 towns of 12
counties. Based on the analysis, the collapse
ratio contour maps of the 14 counties were
acquired. The regular pattern of house
collapse was discovered and the relation
between collapse rate and fault zone, and
earthquake intensity was deduced.
Using high-resolution airborne images,
we interpreted the collapsed houses in the
102 villages and towns of 14 counties, and
136
acquired the collapse ratio contour maps

of the 14 counties. Combined with the
earthquake fault zone data of Longmenshan
Mountain, it was possible to deduce special
features from the typical phenomena of
collapsed houses (see Figure 7).
Firstly, most of the villages and towns hit
seriously were located in the Longmenshan
Fault zone. The whole distribution was
controlled by the frontal mountain boundary
fault (Anxian-Guanxian Fault) and near
mountain fault (Wenchuan-Maoxian Fault).
Secondly, the counties with the heaviest
collapse were distributed along the central
fault of the Longmenshan Fault, namely,
Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault (see Figure 8).
Thirdly, for those villages and towns which
have suffered serious collapse of houses
and buildings, a small number of them
were located on the North-West side of
Longmenshan Main Fault, while the majority
of them are on the South-East side of the
Main Fault. And finally, in Pingwu County,
Guangyuan City and Qingchuan County, the
areas of severely damaged houses are shifted
from Yingxiu-Beichuan Fault to WenchuanMaoxian Fault. While on the same crosssection, the house collape situation is much
more severe in Shazhou Town of Qingchuan
County (located on the Wenchuan-Maoxian
Fault) than that of Shadui Town (located
on the Yingxiu-Beichuan Fault). Table 1
illustrates the estimated house collapse ratio
corresponding to the earthquake intensity
levels and Table 2 shows severely destroyed
regions corresponding to the earthquake
intensity levels.
Table 1 Estimated house collapse ratio corresponding to the earthquake intensity levels
Earthquake intensity
7()
8()
9()
10()
11()
Number of interpreted samples
13
38
31
11
12
Mean ratio (%)
23
27
45
56
83
Ratio estimated (%)
17
32
47
61
76
Table 2 Severely destroyed regions corresponding to the earthquake intensity levels
Earthquake intensity
The damage occurred places
11()
Yingxiu Town
Yinxing Town
Dabao Town
Jingtang Town
Hongbai Town
Tianchi Town
Beichuan Town
Chaping Town
Chenjiaba Town
Nanba Town
9()-10()
County & City

Wenchuan County
Pengzhou City
Shifang City
Mianzhu City
Beichuan County
Pingwu County
Most portions of Wenchuan County, northwestern Dujiangyan City, northwestern Shifang

City, northwestern Mianzhu City, northern Anxian, eastern Beichuan County, southeastern
Pingwu County, and central Qingchuan County
2.4 Damaged Road

Using mainly airborne ADS40 remote sensing
data, the estimation of road damage was done
as follows: firstly semi-automatically digitize
4 sorts of roads, known as the National Road
(NR), Provincial Road (PR), County Road
(CR), and Village Road (VR). According to
their hierarchy, the road damage is marked by
section, with 5 different damage grades. The
damage grades are: Hardly Damaged, Blocked
by Rocks, Covered by Earth-rock, Ruined in
Roadbed, and Inundated by Flood. As for the
bridges, four classes were established: Hardly
Damaged, Ruptured, Fallen, and Inundated.
On those qualitatively attributed roads,
statistical analyses were done and thematic
charts were mapped. The ADS40 images do
not cover all the heavily damaged areas, and
not all covered areas are heavily damaged,
as main and mainly-damaged roads are

almost along the rivers and on the hillsides.
The estimation is not carried on the whole
affected area, but just the seriously damaged
areas.
The conclusion of damage analysis is: the
length and grade of damaged roads are highly
related with the NE-trending Longmen
Mountain fault tectonic zone, so the roads
near the fault between Yingxiu and Beichuan
as wel l as t he one b et we en Xu an kou,
Dujiangyan and Maoxian are highly damaged,
with longer sections and all grades of damage.
Grade of road damage is also affected by the
DEM, so those along the sharp Minjiang
River and Jianjiang River valley are heavily
destroyed. Some flooded sections are located
along the river valley as well, and have been
inundated by the dammed lakes.
137
Figure 5 A chain of barrier lakes (airborne SAR data with C band)
Figure 6 Photo showing the overflowing water caused by the blocked river
The statistical analysis was also done with

respect to respective county and road
hierarchy. The result shows: that there are
fewer roads in the mountainous area than
in the plain area, yet road damage is heavier
138
in the mountains. Within the ADS40 image

cover, taking the Longmenshan Mountain as
a boundary, the west as well as the northeast
area is more destroyed by the earthquake
and its secondary disasters, mostly geological
N
Hongyuan
Sonpan
Qinchuan
Pingwu
Guangyuan
Wangcang
Mesui
BeiChuan
Maoxian
Maerkan
Jianyou
Jiange
Cangxi
Zitong
Lixian
Anxian
Mianzhu
Shifang
Xiaojin
Baoxin
Wenchuan
Epicenter
Langzhong
Mianyang
Luojian
Deyang
Pengzhou Guanhao
Dujianyan
Zhongjian
Pixian
Chongzhou
Jintao
Chendu
Wenjian
Lusan
60 km
0 15 30
Dayi
Lezhi
Yanting
Santai
Xichong
Legend
Interpreted Town Places
Interpolated Collapse Ratio (%)
0 20 40 60 80 100
Contours of Collapse Ratio (%)
0-19
20-39
40-59
60-79
80-100
Longmen Mountain Faults
Wenchuan-Maoxian Faolts Zone
Beichuan-Yinxiu Faolts Zone
Anxian-Guanxian Faolts Zone
Epicenter
County Borders
Figure 7 The interpolated house collapse ratio map overlaid with the Longmenshan Mountain faults in the disaster region
Figure 8 The airborne optical remote sensing image showing the collapsed houses of Yingxiu, Wenchuan County
disasters than the east and southeast part,

where the roads are also less damaged. The
damaged National Roads are the sections
of NR317 around Lixian County and 213
around Wenchuan County and Maoxian
County. Roads along the Laisuhe River banks
as well as the Minjiang River and Caoba River
are deadly affected by landslides and debris
flow. Up to 40% of the roads are damaged;
and that when ranged by county, Wenchuan

has the highest damage. Amazingly NR108,
which passes though Mianyang city, is hardly
affected. As for the Provincial Roads, PR303
passing Wenchuan county, PR302 passing
Beichuan county, Maoxian county and
Jiangyou city, PR105 in Qingchuan county,
and Pingwu county are badly ruined, which is
again in accordance with the trending of the
139
fault tectonic zone. This trending impact is

also true with county roads and village roads.
Among them, areas near the fault are more
heavily damaged than those far away from the
fault zone. DEM is also highly correlated to
road damage as well.
collapsed rather than just ruptured. As a

statistical result from the total damage length
of different grades, road covered by rock
are as long as 125 km; covered by earthrock, 233 km; Ruined in Roadbed, 128 km;
and inundated by flood, 19 km.
With all the 300 bridges, 49 were ruined,

which were located in Lixian C ounty,
Wenchuan County, and also areas along both
sides of the Longmen Mountain fault tectonic
zone, where the damaged bridges were mostly
This airborne ADS40 image acquired on May

19, 2008 shows a section of Provincial Road
302 around Beichuan Town was seriously
damaged, especially the Jianjiang Road
(Figure 9, 10). The 667m of the Jianjiang
Figure 9 Airborne ADS40 image of Jianjianghe Highway, Beichuan
Figure 10 Photos of broken Xiayu bridges in Beichuan, taken after the Earthquake
140
River road was composed of A: Xiayu Bridge,

about 50 m in the middle of which partially
dropped down, B: Longweishan Tunnel and C:
Shisuoyi Bridge. Over 65 percent of section
A was collapsed, and the road on its west
was fractured. Marked as D, the entrance of
the Longwei Mount Tunnel was blocked by
a landfall nearside. The E section Provincial
Road 302 had fallen down, and F distorted.
3 Lives Rescue
The quake caused deaths, injuries, and cut of
electricity, communications, transportations
and water supplies. The disaster not only
devastated lives and livelihoods, but also
destroyed services and infrastructures.
Official figures of the Ministry of Civil Affairs
of China (as of July 21, 2008 12:00 Chinese
Standard Time) state that 69,197 were
confirmed dead, including 68,636 in Sichuan
province, and 374,176 injured, with 18,222

listed as missing.
Using remote sensing, some signs of SOS
were found on the top of houses, on farmland,
respectively. A sign of SOS on the top of
a building near Caopoxiang, Wenchuan
County was found in the airborne remote
image on May 16, 2008 (Figure 11). After
the earthquake, the island was rescued
immediately according to traffic information
shown in the image.
Yuli Town is the hometown of Dayu. This
region is located between the fault zone of
Yingxiu-Beichuan and Wenchuan-Maoxian,
where over 3/5 buildings collapsed severely.
SOS wasnt found on the top of buildings in
Yuli Town from the image on May 16, 2008,
but there were some SOS signs in farmland
on May 27, 2008 (Figure 12).
Figure 11 SOS700 found on house roof
141
Figure 12 SOS written on farmland near Tangjiashan burrier lakes
4 Conclusions
An emergency disaster monitoring system
with advanced, practical, fast and reliable
technical ability should be further established.
At e m e r ge n c y t i m e , an aut h or it at i ve
institution should be guaranteed with
National Dispatching Power so that it
could effectively coordinate key space
infrastructures to achieve a high degree of
data sharing among different agencies.
142
The Earth has existed for 4.5 billion years,

and s ome natural e vents, regarded as
disasters by human beings, were merely
natural phenomena in the Earths long-term
evolutionary process. Therefore the existence
of mankind is always in concomitance
with natural calamities; we must wage
our struggles with natural disasters in
accordance with the idea that mankind
should coexist harmoniously with nature.
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Natural Disaster Mitigation: A Scientific and Practical Approach

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Natural Disaster Mitigation:

A Scientific and Practical Approach

Responsible Editors: Peng Bin, Zhu Haiyan, Han Peng

Copyright 2009 by the InterAcademy Panel on International Issues

Prof. Anthony J. Lewis, Louisiana State

Prof. Cheng Xiaotao, Institute of Water

Dr. Jose Rubiera, National Forecast Center,

Prof. Jamilur Reza Choudhury, Vice Chancellor,

Dr. Jane Sexton, Geoscience Australia,

Prof. Slobodan P. Simonovic, Institute for

Dr. Feng Qiang, Center for Earth Observation

Dr. David T. Soong, USGS-Illinois Water

Dr. Nina Frolova, Russian Academy of Sciences,

Dr. Vern Singhroy, Canada Center for Remote

Prof. John van Genderen, International

Dr. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi, International Center

Dr. Lars Hernroth, Royal Swedish Academy

Prof. Xu Yinglong, China Meteorological

Prof. Fumihiko Imamura, Tohoku University,

Prof. Yu Fujiang, State Oceanic Administration,

Prof. John Ario Katili, Indonesian Academy

IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation

carry out the research in natural disaster relief

The Study Panel has completed this detailed

However, due to the lack of effective forecast

Natural Disaster Mitigation IAP Report

Though damages arising from natural

should be paid to assisting developing and

Professor Chen Zhu

Professor Howard Alper

IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation

international workshops and meetings, and

cause greatest human and economic impact. We

disasters, among w hich the s cientif ic

for the completion of the whole project. My

Prof. Guo Huadong

Natural Disaster Mitigation IAP Report

IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation

The Study Panel is grateful to those who

papers that provided the essential building

and reference support from relevant sources

IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation

ment, standardization and quality control.

mendations to IAP being produced.

a multi-disciplinary approach is necessary,

Survey on Natural Disaster

IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation

tator of capacity-building, and institutional

the end of the 20th century, and the total

and potential losses.

IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation

earthquake assistance and disaster relief at all

Tropical Cyclones and Storm

there are uncertainties regarding the overall

Flood and Drought-Induced

in the future. The probability that these

The mainstream water-related management

Earth Observation Technologies

With climate change, extreme weather events

Earth Observation (EO) comprises in situ

IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation

carried out in close proximity to the object or

assess risk. SAR interferometry (InSAR) is